An Artificial Intelligent Bot that Hacks Simulated Cyber-Physical Networks in the Power Grid
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Fragkos, Georgios↗
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Relating Convection to GCM Grid-Scale Fields Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during MC3E Field Experiment
In this study, a WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is used as a cloud-resolving model to simulate a squall line observed on 20 May 2011 in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States. The model output is then used to examine the relationships between convective precipitation and coarse-grained variables averaged over a range of subdomain sizes equivalent to various global climate model horizontal resolutions. The objective is to determine to what extent convection within the subdomains can be related to these “large-scale” variables, thus that they can potentially serve as closure in convective parameterization. Results show that convective precipitation is well correlated with the vertical velocity at 500 hPa, column integrated moisture convergence and CAPE change due to large-scale advective forcing (dCAPE) for various subdomain sizes, but the correlation decreases with decreasing subdomain size. dCAPE leads convective precipitation for all subdomain sizes examined; however, the lead time decreases with decreasing subdomain size. Moisture convergence leads convective precipitation for subdomain sizes greater than 32 km but has no lead time for smaller subdomain sizes. Mid-tropospheric vertical velocity has no lead time or slightly lags convective precipitation. The lead/lag composite analysis with respect to maximum precipitation time indicates that peaks of large-scale variables increase with decreasing subdomain size. The peaks of 500 hPa vertical velocity and column integrated moisture convergence occur at the same time as maximum precipitation, but maximum dCAPE leads maximum precipitation by twelve minutes.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Impacts of Stochastic Mixing in Idealized Convection-Permitting Simulations of Squall Lines
This study investigates impacts of altering subgrid-scale mixing in “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale horizontal-grid-spacing (Δ h ) simulations by applying either constant or stochastic multiplicative factors to the horizontal mixing coefficients within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. In quasi-idealized 1-km Δ h simulations of two observationally based squall-line cases, constant enhanced mixing produces larger updraft cores that are more dilute at upper levels, weakens the cold pool, rear-inflow jet, and front-to-rear flow of the squall line, and degrades the model’s effective resolution. Reducing mixing by a constant multiplicative factor has the opposite effect on all metrics. Completely turning off parameterized horizontal mixing produces bulk updraft statistics and squall-line mesoscale structure closest to an LES “benchmark” among all 1-km simulations, although the updraft cores are too undilute. The stochastic mixing scheme, which applies a multiplicative factor to the mixing coefficients that varies stochastically in time and space, is employed at 0.5-, 1-, and 2-km Δ h . It generally reduces midlevel vertical velocities and enhances upper-level vertical velocities compared to simulations using the standard mixing scheme, with more substantial impacts at 1- and 2-km Δ h compared to 0.5-km Δ h . Further, the stochastic scheme also increases updraft dilution to better agree with the LES for one case, but has less impact on the other case. Stochastic mixing acts to weaken the cold pool but without a significant impact on squall-line propagation. It also does not affect the model’s overall effective resolution unlike applying constant multiplicative factors to the mixing coefficients.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part II: Scale-awareness and application to single-column model experiments
Fine-resolution three-dimensional fields have been produced using the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains region. The GSI system is implemented in a multi-scale data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. From the fine-resolution three-dimensional fields, large-scale forcing is derived explicitly at grid-scale resolution; a subgrid-scale dynamic component is derived separately, representing subgrid-scale horizontal dynamic processes. Analyses show that the subgrid-scale dynamic component is often a major component over the large-scale forcing for grid scales larger than 200 km. The single-column model (SCM) of the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) is used to examine the impact of the grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components on simulated precipitation and cloud fields associated with a mesoscale convective system. It is found that grid-scale size impacts simulated precipitation, resulting in an overestimation for grid scales of about 200 km but an underestimation for smaller grids. The subgrid-scale dynamic component has an appreciable impact on the simulations, suggesting that grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components should be considered in the interpretation of SCM simulations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The June 2012 North American Derecho: A Testbed for Evaluating Regional and Global Climate Modeling Systems at Cloud‐Resolving Scales
Abstract In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally‐refined Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%.
2012 North American derecho↗
Recent progress on coarse graining simulations
We focus on coarse graining simulations based on the primary conservation equations, effectively codesigned physics and algorithms, and low-Mach-number corrected (LMC) hydrodynamics. Simulation methods involve LANL’s x-Radiation-Adaptive-Grid-Eulerian Large-Eddy Simulation, Besnard-Harlow-Rauenzahn (BHR) Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach, and Dynamic BHR – a paradigm bridging RANS and LES. A relevant question addressed relates to whether 3D RANS and RANS/LES hybrids – the industry standards for aerospace and automotive research, are presently relevant for practical variable-density applications involving shocked and accelerated interface instabilities. Furthermore, recent simulations of the GaTECH inclined mixing-layer shock-tube and NIF ICF-capsule experiments are used to demonstrate issues, challenges, and potential for 3D coarse grained LMC simulation strategies for robustly simulating complex transitional and coupled hydrodynamics-multiphysics with coarser resolution. Present LES readiness to provide accurate predictions at scale is demonstrated – whereas 3D RANS and RANS/LES bridging do not appear impactful in this context.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Impact of surface coupling grids on tropical cyclone extremes in high-resolution atmospheric simulations
This article discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric grid cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere–ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Sub-grid drag model for immersed vertical cylinders in fluidized beds
Immersed vertical cylinders are often used as heat exchanger in gas-solid fluidized beds. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are computationally expensive for large scale systems with bundles of cylinders. Therefore sub-grid models are required to facilitate simulations on a coarse grid, where internal cylinders are treated as a porous medium. The influence of cylinders on the gas-solid flow tends to enhance segregation and affect the gas-solid drag. A correction to gas-solid drag must be modeled using a suitable sub-grid constitutive relationship. In the past, Sarkar et al. have developed a sub-grid drag model for horizontal cylinder arrays based on 2D simulations. However, the effect of a vertical cylinder arrangement was not considered due to computational complexities. In this study, highly resolved 3D simulations with vertical cylinders were performed in small periodic domains. These simulations were filtered to construct a sub-grid drag model which can then be implemented in coarse-grid simulations. Gas-solid drag was filtered for different solids fractions and a significant reduction in drag was identified when compared with simulation without cylinders and simulation with horizontal cylinders. Slip velocities significantly increase when vertical cylinders are present. Lastly, vertical suspension drag due to vertical cylinders is insignificant however substantial horizontal suspension drag is observed which is consistent to the finding for horizontal cylinders.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures
Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. Herein, this paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for 1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and 2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature. For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
System-of-Systems Approach for Integrated Energy Systems Modeling and Simulation: Preprint
Today’s electricity grid is the most complex system ever built—and the future grid is likely to be even more complex because it will incorporate distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind, solar, and various other sources of generation and energy storage. The complexity is further augmented by the possible evolution to new retail market structures that provide incentives to owners of DERs to support the grid. To understand and test new retail market structures and technologies such as DERs, demand-response equipment, and energy management systems while providing reliable electricity to all customers, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is being developed at NREL. The IESM is composed of a power flow simulator (GridLAB-D), home energy management systems implemented using GAMS/Pyomo, a market layer, and hardware-in-the-loop simulation (testing appliances such as HVAC, dishwasher, etc.). The IESM is a system-of-systems (SoS) simulator wherein the constituent systems are brought together in a virtual testbed. We will describe an SoS approach for developing a distributed simulation environment. We will elaborate on the methodology and the control mechanisms used in the co-simulation illustrated by a case study.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Evaluating Large-Eddy Simulations of Boundary-Layer Cloud Response to Climate Change using MAGIC Observations
Over the cool waters off California, a persistent and extensive deck of low-lying clouds forms atop a shallow, turbulent layer of moist air extending 500-2000 meters above the ocean, above which the air is much warmer and drier. Its west edge varies with weather and season and is typically half way to Hawaii. This cloud deck and similar cloud decks elsewhere reflect sunlight back to space, cooling the underlying ocean and indeed the entire planet. They must be accurately represented by a climate model to correctly simulate our current climate or future global warming. Most climate models suggest these cloud decks will thin and break up in a warmer CO 2 -enriched climate, so extra sunlight would reach the ocean surface and amplify warming worldwide. But these models have difficulty accurately simulating the cloud thickness and extent because the turbulent cloud-forming air currents are much too small to be simulated by their coarse computational grid. In 2012-2013, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MAGIC program instrumented a container ship transiting between California and Hawaii to observe clouds and rain, small particles (aerosols), and weather conditions. Data were obtained from 20 4-6 day cruises in each direction. This study tested whether a sophisticated ‘large-eddy simulation’ (LES) of the turbulent air motions that create the clouds in this region accurately predicts the variations in cloud properties seen across the different cruises. If so, that model is more believable for predicting cloud changes in this region in a future warmer climate. Our LES used a numerical mesh over a 6.4x6.4 km region with 50 m horizontal and 5 m vertical grid spacing to simulate the cloud-forming eddies and the sharp overlying transition between moist and dry air. To better compare with MAGIC observations, we configured our model to simulate a region that moved along with the ship. We used a weather forecast model to specify effects of the large-scale air flow. We compared our results with balloon ascents, a radar and other instruments pointed upward at the clouds, measurements of downward sunlight and infrared radiation, aerosols, and weather variables for all suitable cruise periods. Our LES was remarkably skillful in predicting the cloudiness variations measured by the ship. MAGIC also sampled mesoscale cells, regions of cloud thickening and thinning over distances of 10-50 km. An LES run over a larger region 100 km on a side shows these cells form spontaneously, enhanced by strong radiative heat loss at the cloud tops.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by discretization and time-averaging in two-fluid model predictions
The two-fluid model (TFM) has become a tool for the design and troubleshooting of industrial fluidized bed reactors. To use TFM for scale up with confidence, the uncertainty in its predictions must be quantified. Here, we study two sources of uncertainty: discretization and time-averaging. First, we show that successive grid refinement may not yield grid-independent transient quantities, including cross-section–averaged quantities. Successive grid refinement would yield grid-independent time-averaged quantities on sufficiently fine grids. A Richardson extrapolation can then be used to estimate the discretization error, and the grid convergence index gives an estimate of the uncertainty. Richardson extrapolation may not work for industrial-scale simulations that use coarse grids. We present an alternative method for coarse grids and assess its ability to estimate the discretization error. Second, we assess two methods (autocorrelation and binning) and find that the autocorrelation method is more reliable for estimating the uncertainty introduced by time-averaging TFM data.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Simulation of Internal Combustion Engines with High-Performance Computing Tools
Traditional Lagrangian spray modeling approaches for internal combustion engines are highly griddependent due to insufficient resolution in the near nozzle region. This is primarily because of inherent restrictions of volume fraction with the Lagrangian assumption together with high computational costs associated with small grid sizes. A state-of-the-art grid-convergent spray modeling approach was developed and implemented by Senecal et al. (ASME-ICEF2012-92043) in the CONVERGE software. The key features of the methodology include Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR), advanced liquid-gas momentum coupling, and improved distribution of the liquid phase, which enables use of cell sizes smaller than the nozzle diameter. This modeling approach was rigorously validated against nonevaporating, evaporating, and reacting data from the literature. The current numerical study focusses on further demonstration of the grid-convergent modeling approach for simulating a single-cylinder Cat® compression ignition engine. The simulated injector is characterized with a nominal nozzle exit diameter of 259 μm. Simulations using various minimum grid sizes (ranging from 125 μm to 1000 μm) are compared for engine performance and emissions parameters of interest such as pressure, heat release rate, ignition delay, NOx, HC, and soot emissions. The peak cell-count for the highest resolution simulation was on the order of 34 million. These computationally expensive simulations were facilitated at a high-performance computing facility at Argonne National Laboratory. METIS load-balancing algorithm was developed and implemented in Converge code for the simulations. Scaling studies were also performed. The validity of previously recommended grid settings (ASME-ICEF2012-92043) for accuracy/runtime trade-off is further assessed. Efficacy of a simplified combustion model is also compared against a detailed chemical kinetics based combustion model.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
ParaEMT: An Open Source, Parallelizable, and HPC-Compatible EMT Simulator for Large-Scale IBR-Rich Power Grids
Not Available
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Fast Dynamic Simulation-Based Small Signal Stability Assessment and Control
Power grid planning and operation decisions are made based on simulation of the dynamic behavior of the system. Enabling substantial energy savings while increasing the reliability of the aging North American power grid through improved utilization of existing transmission assets hinges on the adoption of wide-area measurement systems (WAMS) for power system stabilization. However, adoption of WAMS alone will not suffice if the power system is to reach its full entitlement in stability and reliability. It is necessary to enhance predictability with "faster than real-time" dynamic simulations that will enable the dynamic stability margins, proactive real-time control, and improve grid resiliency to fast time-scale phenomena such as cascading network failures. Present-day dynamic simulations are performed only during offline planning studies, considering only worst case conditions such as summer peak, winter peak days, etc. With widespread deployment of renewable generation, controllable loads, energy storage devices and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles expected in the near future and greater integration of cyber infrastructure (communications, computation and control), monitoring and controlling the dynamic performance of the grid in real-time would become increasingly important. The state-of-the-art dynamic simulation tools have limited computational speed and are not suitable for real-time applications, given the large set of contingency conditions to be evaluated. These tools are optimized for best performance of single-processor computers, but the simulation is still several times slower than real-time due to its computational complexity. With recent significant advances in numerical methods and computational hardware, the expectations have been rising towards more efficient and faster techniques to be implemented in power system simulators. This is a natural expectation, given that the core solution algorithms of most commercial simulators were developed decades ago, when High Performance Computing (HPC) resources were not commonly available.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Open-Source PSCAD Grid-Following and Grid-Forming Inverters and a Benchmark for Zero-Inertia Power System Simulations: Preprint
This paper presents open-source, flexible, and easily-scalable models of grid following and grid forming inverters for the PSCAD software platform. The models are intended for system integration studies, particularly stability analyses of power systems with high penetration of inverter-based generation. To verify the model functionality, they are implemented in a IEEE9-bus system in a zero-inertia operational scenario of 100% inverter-based generation. The models have been made available open source at the PyPSCAD NREL GitHub page.
41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
Characterizing uncertainties in ground “truth” of precipitation over complex terrain through high-resolution numerical modeling
Ground observation of precipitation over complex terrain is subject to large uncertainties due to inadequate sampling. This study explores a method that combines limited gauge data and a high-resolution numerical simulation to quantify the precipitation uncertainties in central Himalaya. Specifically, the Coefficient of spatial Variability (CV) of precipitation and the minimum Number of Required Stations (NRS) to obtain areal-mean precipitation ground truth values within a 0.25-degree area are investigated using fine-scale meteorological simulation at 1.5 km grid spacing. Evaluation over a densely-gauged area demonstrates comparable CV and NRS values between station observations and simulations. The simulated CV and NRS values in a larger area show a strong and positive dependence on each other and an expected positive (negative) correlation with topographic complexity (temporal scale). The proposed method sheds lights on evaluating precipitation products and holds promise for informing the layout of rain gauge networks in complex terrain.
Ouyang, Lin↗
Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithm for Evaluation of Photovoltaic (PV) Generation Systems
Use of inverter-based resources facilitating renewable energy resources such as photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasing rapidly with decreasing costs and reduced emissions associated. To accommodate such rapid growth of inverter-based resources like PV systems, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation models of both PV systems and grids are required to analyze the interaction of PVs in the grid (like the post-event analysis). In addition, the EMT simulation would help with the planning of future power grid with a large number of PVs as well as other inverter-based distributed generation systems. In this paper, the EMT simulation models of PV systems and grids are developed based on the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) representing their EMT dynamics. Furthermore, advanced simulation algorithms including numerical stiffness-based hybrid discretization, DAE clustering and aggregation, multi-order integration, and matrix splitting approaches are applied to accelerate the EMT simulation. The proposed algorithm was applied to 125 PV inverters within 52-bus medium-voltage (MV) distribution grid.
Choi, Jongchan↗