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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development of a Stochastic Infiltration Model for PPA Implementation - 19293

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes and properties such as infiltration, water content, groundwater flow rate, streamflow, and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level infiltration model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model for the West Valley Site in western New York. Additionally, this paper demonstrates a method for obtaining distributions of the long-term average hydrologic processes and properties for a PA model. For this PPA, an infiltration model was developed using HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) to evaluate the rates of infiltration, percolation, and drainage through several site soil and proposed decommissioning cover systems, as well as the volumetric water contents of each of the unsaturated layers in a modeled soil column. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. For these models, distributions of climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation were scaled to 1000-year averages and were used to force steady-state models that predict 1000-year average infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents. For the HELP model, distributions were developed for the physical and hydrologic properties of each material in a given soil column or cover system, and these properties were allowed to vary stochastically along with climatic inputs. The HELP model was run 5000 times for each of seven different soil and cover systems representing various existing and proposed conditions (i.e. native soil, backfill, existing covers, and a proposed close-in-place cover). The results of the HELP model provide ranges of 1000-year average infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents through and within the various layers of each of the different soil and cover conditions. The model outcomes also demonstrate the effectiveness of a proposed close-in-place cover, which essentially eliminates infiltration during its operational lifetime. Following model simulation, a sensitivity analysis was performed to establish the relative importance of each stochastic input with respect to each output. The outcomes of the model simulations and the sensitivity analysis were implemented into a system-level GoldSim model via a novel sensitivity-informed nearest neighbor approach. These infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents are used to parameterize mixing cells within the GoldSim Contaminant Transport module, which is the primary system-level model used in the PPA. The infiltration rates are also used as boundary conditions for a stochastic groundwater flow model that is also utilized in the PPA, but not discussed in this paper. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Hotspot electron temperature from x-ray continuum measurements on the NIF

We report on measurements of the electron temperature in the hotspot of inertially confined, layered, spherical implosions on the National Ignition Facility using a differential filtering diagnostic. Measurements of the DT and DD ion temperatures using neutron time-of-flight detectors are complicated by the contribution of hot spot motion to the peak width, which produce an apparent temperature higher than the thermal temperature. The electron temperature is not sensitive to this non-thermal velocity and is thus a valuable input to interpreting the stagnated hot spot conditions. Here we show that the current differential filtering diagnostic provides insufficient temperature resolution for the hot spot temperatures of interest. We then propose a new differential filter configuration utilizing larger pinhole size to increase spectral fluence, as well as thicker filtration. This new configuration will improve measurement uncertainty by more than a factor of three, allowing for a more accurate hotspot temperature.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2018

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of hydrogen fuel production from chlor-alkali processes in the United States

By-product hydrogen from chlor-alkali processes can help meet the increasing demand for hydrogen fuel in early fuel cell electric vehicle markets (e.g., California) in the U.S. Hydrogen produced from chlor-alkali plants is typically combusted for process heat on site, vented to the atmosphere (i.e., wasted), or sold to the external merchant hydrogen market. Whether it is combusted, vented, or sold as a commodity, relevant information is lacking as to the life-cycle environmental benefits or trade-offs of using by-product hydrogen from chlor-alkali plants. A life-cycle analysis framework was employed to evaluate well-to-gate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with by-product hydrogen from chlor-alkali processes in comparison with hydrogen from the conventional centralized natural gas steam methane reforming (central SMR) pathway. U.S.-specific, plant-by-plant, and up-to-date chlor-alkali production characteristics were incorporated into the analysis. In addition to the venting and combustion scenarios, to deal with the multi-functionality of the chlor-alkali processes that simultaneously produce chlorine, sodium hydroxide, and hydrogen, two different co-product allocation strategies were adopted mass allocation and market value allocation. It was estimated that by-product hydrogen production from chlor-alkali processes creates 1.3-9.8 kg CO 2 e/kg H 2 of life-cycle GHG emissions on average, which is 20-90% less than the conventional central SMR pathway. The results vary with co-product treatment scenarios, regional electric grid characteristics, on-site power generation, product prices, and hydrogen yield. Despite the variations in the results, it was concluded that the life-cycle GHG emission reduction benefits of using by-product hydrogen from chlor-alkali processes are robust. In conclusion, with a diverse set of scenario analyses, the study developed a comprehensive and detailed life-cycle GHG emissions inventory of the chlor-alkali by-product hydrogen pathway and quantified sensitivity indices in the context of different assumptions and input parameter values.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

25-Pin metallic fuel performance benchmark case based on the EBR-II X430 experiments series

A metallic fuel benchmark case was developed for the fuel performance code BISON based on 25 uranium-zirconium and uranium-plutonium-zirconium pins of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II X430 experiment series. Results of the benchmarks were compared with measurements and calculations made at the time of the experiment as well as subsequent measurements reported in 2019. The comparisons were used to quantify the accuracy of the BISON predictions and to identify patterns in the BISON differences.BISON predicted burnup, plenum pressure, and fission gas release fractions accurately. BISON temperature predictions were somewhat cooler than the temperatures determined at the time of the experiment but appeared to be reasonably accurate considering uncertainties in the legacy temperature calculations, uncertainties in the legacy linear heat rate calculations, and the high sensitivities of the BISON-predicted temperatures to BISON inputs. Fuel axial elongation predictions had errors correlated to fuel composition; BISON tended to underpredict the elongation of binary fuels and overpredict the elongation of ternary fuels. BISON cladding radial dilation predictions were also significantly lower than legacy PIE measurements.Recommendations were made to improve the BISON fuel gaseous swelling model to account for fuel composition, to add additional capabilities to the coolant channel temperature model to ease benchmark development, and to continue developing benchmark cases based on a wide range of experiments in several reactors. Once a wide array of benchmarks is developed, an attempt can be made to enhance or calibrate BISON models to improve the cladding dilation predictions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global Techno-Economic Performance of Bifacial and Tracking Photovoltaic Systems

Although most of the current photovoltaic (PV) system installations use monofacial modules with fixed-tilt mounting structures, bifacial modules, trackers, and the combination of them are also getting more attention as potential candidates to further reduce the PV levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). This work is then the first to present a worldwide analysis on the yield potential and cost-effectiveness of PV farms composed of monofacial fixed-tilt and single/dual (1T/2T) tracker installations, as well as their bifacial counterparts. Our approach starts by estimating the irradiance reaching the front and rear surface of the modules for the different system designs (validated based on data from real PV systems and results from the literature) to estimate their energy production (row-row shading is neglected). Subsequently, the overall system cost during their 25-year lifetime is factored in, and LCOE is obtained. The results reveal that bifacial-1T installations increase energy yield by 35% and reach the lowest LCOE for the majority of the world (93.1% of the land area). Although dual axis trackers achieve the highest energy generation — especially for bifacial modules — their cost is still too high, and are therefore not as cost-effective. Sensitivity analyses based on the Monte Carlo and region sensitivity approach are performed to analyze the impact of input assumptions on the calculated LCOE. These reveal that our conclusions are robust in general but exact configuration to choose depends on specific site conditions. This investigation is not only of interest to the scientific community, but also can be used as a guide for PV installation companies and investors to determine the most suitable technology for a particular location.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Temporal Deep Learning Models to Estimate Daily Snow Water Equivalent Over the Rocky Mountains

Abstract In this study we construct and compare three different deep learning (DL) models for estimating daily snow water equivalent (SWE) from high‐resolution gridded meteorological fields over the Rocky Mountain region. To train the DL models, Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) station‐based SWE observations are used as the prediction target. All DL models produce higher median Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values than a conceptual SWE model and interpolated gridded data sets, although mean squared errors also tend to be higher. Sensitivity of the SWE prediction to the model's input variables is analyzed using an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) method, yielding insight into the physical relationships learned by the models. This method reveals the dominant role precipitation and temperature play in snowpack dynamics. In applying our models to estimate SWE throughout the Rocky Mountains, an extrapolation problem arises since the statistical properties of SWE (e.g., annual maximum) and geographical properties of individual grid points (e.g., elevation) differ from the training data. This problem is solved by normalizing the SWE with its historical maximum value to alleviate extrapolation for all tested DL models. Our work shows that the DL models are promising tools for estimating SWE, and sufficiently capture relevant physical relationships to make them useful for spatial and temporal extrapolation of SWE values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Form-factor dependence of neutrino-nucleus cross sections using microscopic methods

To achieve its design goals, the next generation of neutrino-oscillation accelerator experiments requires percent-level predictions of neutrino-nucleus cross sections supplemented by robust estimates of the theoretical uncertainties involved. The latter arise from both approximations in solving the nuclear many-body problem and in the determination of the single- and few-nucleon quantities taken as input by many-body methods. To gauge the sensitivity of realistic nuclear many body methods to these few-nucleon quantities, we compute flux-averaged double-differential cross sections using the Green’s function Monte Carlo and spectral function methods as well as different parameterizations of the nucleon axial form factors based on either deuterium bubble-chamber data or lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations. The cross-section results are compared with available experimental data from the MiniBooNE and T2K collaborations. We also discuss the uncertainties associated with N → Δ transition form factors that enter the two-body current operator. We quantify the relations between neutrino-nucleus cross section and nucleon form factor uncertainties. These relations enable us to determine the form factor precision targets required to achieve a given cross-section precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient mapping between void shapes and stress fields using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks with sparse data

Establishing fast and accurate structure-to-property relationships is an important component in the design and discovery of advanced materials. Physics-based simulation models like the finite element method (FEM) are often used to predict deformation, stress, and strain fields as a function of material microstructure in material and structural systems. Such models may be computationally expensive and time intensive if the underlying physics of the system is complex. This limits their application to solve inverse design problems and identify structures that maximize performance. In such scenarios, surrogate models are employed to make the forward mapping computationally efficient to evaluate. However, the high dimensionality of the input microstructure and the output field of interest often renders such surrogate models inefficient, especially when dealing with sparse data. Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based surrogate models have shown great promise in handling such high-dimensional problems. In this paper, a single ellipsoidal void structure under a uniaxial tensile load represented by a linear elastic, high-dimensional and expensive-to-query, FEM model. We consider two deep CNN architectures, a modified convolutional autoencoder framework with a fully connected bottleneck and a UNet CNN, and compare their accuracy in predicting the von Mises stress field for any given input void shape in the FEM model. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis study is performed using the two approaches, where the variation in the prediction accuracy on unseen test data is studied through numerical experiments by varying the number of training samples from 20 to 100.

surrogate modeling; convolutional neural networks;↗
DOE OSTI2017

Regression with Small Data Sets: A Case Study using Code Surrogates in Additive Manufacturing

There has been an increasing interest in recent years in the mining of massive data sets whose sizes are measured in terabytes. While it is easy to collect such large data sets in some application domains, there are others where collecting even a single data point can be very expensive, so the resulting data sets have only tens or hundreds of samples. For example, when complex computer simulations are used to understand a scientific phenomenon, we want to run the simulation for many different values of the input parameters and analyze the resulting output. The data set relating the simulation inputs and outputs is typically quite small, especially when each run of the simulation is expensive. However, regression techniques can still be used on such data sets to build an inexpensive \surrogate" that could provide an approximate output for a given set of inputs. A good surrogate can be very useful in sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, and in designing experiments. In this paper, we compare different regression techniques to determine how well they predict melt-pool characteristics in the problem domain of additive manufacturing. Our analysis indicates that some of the commonly used regression methods do perform quite well even on small data sets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Neutrino Physics with SNO+

SNO+ is a neutrino experiment with a broad physics program, the primary goal being a search for the phenomenon of neutrinoless double beta decay, a process possible only if the neutrino is its own antiparticle, or a "Majorana" fermion. Such a discovery would substantially alter our understanding of particle physics, including introducing the need for a non-Higgs mechanism for generating particle mass, and place constraints on the as-yet-unknown neutrino mass scale. SNO+ will also detect neutrinos from the solar core, furthering our understanding of the fusion cycles that power the sun, and antineutrinos produced inside the Earth (geoneutrinos), which will enable a better understanding of heat production beneath the Earth's surface. We will continually monitor for neutrinos from nearby supernovae, which, if detected, could allow us to better understand the role of neutrinos in stellar core collapse, and potentially to determine the unknown neutrino mass hierarchy. With such a broad physics program, SNO+ has great potential both to advance our understanding of neutrinos, and to use neutrinos to understand the formation and behavior of our Universe. This report describes a targeted plan of optical calibrations of the SNO+ detector, with the goal of measuring and monitoring the PMT optical response independently of liquid scintillator properties. To this end we describe the design, construction, and operation of a source of Cherenkov light for deployment in SNO+. Successful deployment in the initial light water phase is described, demonstrating the capabilities of this calibration mechanism. The results of this work form a critical input to the SNO+ detector model, directly impacting the sensitivity of all SNO+ physics results. Also described is significant work on detector commissioning, DAQ and operations, the implementation of calibration efforts in multiple physics analyses, involvement in all levels of analysis activities, and leadership in SNO+ science.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Cost of CO2 Saline Storage on a Regional and National Level

This poster presents the results of using the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM) to evaluate the cost of saline storage in potential storage formations in the lower 48 U.S. states. Costs were calculated for 314 saline storage formations in the CO2_S_COM geologic property database. These results were used to generate national and regional cost-supply curves. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed that quantified how modifying several input variables in CO2_S_COM affected the costs. Poster presented (virtual) at the 2024 AGU Conference, December 9-13, 2024, Washington, D.C.

Morgan, David [NETL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dose Exceedance Distance Sensitivity Based on Parametric Uncertainty

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) collaborated with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response (NSIR) and Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) to investigate the reasonable variability in the estimation of dose exceedance distances. SNL performed calculations using the MACCS code to elucidate the sensitivity of dose exceedance distances to variations in user input parameters.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1974

NASTRAN variance analysis and plotting of HBDY elements

The NASTRAN Thermal Analyzer has been intended to do variance analysis and plot the thermal boundary elements. The objective of the variance analysis addition is to assess the sensitivity of temperature variances resulting from uncertainties inherent in input parameters for heat conduction analysis. The plotting capability provides the ability to check the geometry (location, size and orientation) of the boundary elements of a model in relation to the conduction elements. Variance analysis is the study of uncertainties of the computed results as a function of uncertainties of the input data. To study this problem using NASTRAN, a solution is made for both the expected values of all inputs, plus another solution for each uncertain variable. A variance analysis module subtracts the results to form derivatives, and then can determine the expected deviations of output quantities.

Harder, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A spark gap switching system for gasdynamic facilities

A spark gap switching system has been developed to coordinate the discharge of a 300 kJ capacitor bank with the high speed flow of helium in a shock tube driver. The trigger system includes a flow transducer, a pulse forming circuit, a high voltage spark generator, and four heavy duty spark gaps that can carry total peak currents greater than 1.5 million A. A glow gauge flow transducer sensitive to small gas density changes was used whose input power and signal output can withstand high voltage fluctuations. This switching system is of use with gasdynamic discharge devices requiring a minimum number of switches.

Leibowitz, L. P.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Density of the mantle of Mars

The range of zero pressure densities of the Martian mantle which are compatible with the mean density and moment of inertia factor of Mars has been explored by: (1) considering the full range of plausible core compositions and densities, and (2) investigating the sensitivity of computed mantle densities to uncertainties in the input parameters. Ni, Fe, Fe3O4, and FeS cores were considered; corresponding zero pressure mantle densities range from 3.47 to 3.41 g/cu cm. Uncertainty in the mantle density of about 0.04 g/cu cm for the Fe core model and about 0.05 g/cu cm for the FeS core model results from uncertainties in the input parameters. The zero pressure density of the Martian mantle is estimated to be 3.44 plus or minus 0.06 g/cu cm.

Goettel, K. A.↗