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NASA NTRS1990

Theoretical predictions

In order to understand the impact of man made chemicals on the atmospheric ozone layer, it is essential to develop models that can perform long term predictions of future ozone changes. An advantage of using two dimensional models is that they can be used to predict latitudinal and seasonal changes in ozone. The formulation and recent improvements are described in 2-D models, which are used herein, along with the three dimensional models that are currently being developed to better simulate transport of chemically active trace gases, especially in polar regions. The range in 2-D model calculations is described. Selected fields calculated by these models are compared with observations. A number of scenarios have been defined, which encompass possible emission rates of different halocarbons. Because of the large uncertainties in the rates for heterogeneous processes, the calculated responses of the models include only the effects of homogeneous chemistry. One important distinction among the models is their ability to account for temperature feedbacks on the calculated ozone changes.

Brasseur, G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AgMIP Local, National and Global Assessments of Food System Challenges in A Changing Climate

Food systems connect a diverse network of stakeholders around the world, with complex dynamics governing production, processing, transportation, trade and consumption of food products. Extreme conditions can disrupt multiple components of the food system, with systemic connections providing structure that can both buffer and exacerbate risks. Climate change is shifting current practices in agricultural production and the broader food system, encouraging shifts toward more diverse value chains capable of drawing from multiple food producing regions to reduce the chance that an entire value chain be subject to simultaneous impacts. The IPCC Working Group I report assessed that heat waves, fires, floods and severe storms are becoming more pronounced and widespread with each degree of global warming, increasing food system risk. Food system disruptions can also come from outside the climate system, including from viral outbreaks, geopolitical conflict and socioeconomic changes. This presentation will highlight how the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) develops modeling approaches that connect climate, biophysical and socioeconomic models in order to capture complex responses of the food system and potential interventions by diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Models are applied on a range of scales that match decision contexts. These include households in specific agricultural production regions (e.g., within a country), national-level policymakers considering policies, sustainability and development priorities for a country’s agricultural sector, and global food market models that balance production and consumption around the world with competition for land, water, energy and sustainability priorities. Models are capable of capturing many important responses, but further development is needed to represent key systemic risks and the possibility for additional interventions beyond the farm gate. Improved food system models will provide important insights into our society’s ability to cope with climate change, as well as our ability to identify agricultural adaptation and mitigation opportunities to reduce overall risk.

Food systems↗

NASA NTRS1994

Development and initial test of the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model

The description of a global version of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) model and the results from an initial numerical weather prediction experiment are presented in this paper. The main objectives of this initial test are to (1) discuss theta-sigma model development and computer requirements, (2) demonstrate the ability of the UW theta-sigma model for global numerical weather prediction using realistic orography and parameterized physical processes, and (3) compare the transport of an inert trace constituent against a nominally 'identical' sigma coordinate model. Initial and verifying data for the 5-day simulations presented in this work were supplied by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. The time period studied is 1-6 February 1985. This validation experiment demonstrates that the global UW theta-sigma model produces a realistic 5-day simulation of the mass and momentum distributions when compared to both the identical sigma model and GEOS-1 verification. Root-mean-square errors demonstrate that the theta-sigma model is slightly more accurate than the nominally identical sigma model with respect to standard synoptic variables. Of particular importance, the UW theta-sigma model displays a distinct advantage over the conventional sigma model with respect to the prognostic simulation of inert trace constituent transport in amplifying baroclinic waves of the extratropics. This is especially true in the upper troposphere and stratosphere where the spatial integrity and conservation of an inert trace constituent is severely compromised in the sigma model compared to the theta-sigma model.

Zapotocny, Tom H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Characterize Human Forward Contamination Project

Let's face it: wherever we go, we will inevitably carry along the little critters that live in and on us. Conventional wisdom has long held that it's unlikely those critters could survive the space environment, but in 2007 microscopic animals called Tardigrades survived exposure to space and in 2008 Cyanobacteria lived for 548 days outside the International Space Station (ISS). But what about the organisms we might reasonably expect a crewed spacecraft to leak or vent? Do we even know what they are? How long might our tiny hitch-hikers survive in close proximity to a warm spacecraft that periodically leaks/vents water or oxygen-and how might they mutate with long-duration exposure? Unlike the Mars rovers that we cleaned once and sent on their way, crew members will provide a constantly regenerating contaminant source. Are we prepared to certify that we can meet forward contamination protocols as we search for life at new destinations? This project has four technical objectives: 1. TEST: Develop a test plan to leverage existing equipment (i.e. ISS) to characterize the kinds of organisms we can reasonably expect pressurized, crewed volumes to vent or leak overboard; 2. ANALYSIS: Develop an analysis plan to study those organisms in relevant destination environments, including spacecraft-induced conditions; 3. MODEL: Develop a modeling plan to model organism transport mechanisms in relevant destination environments; 4. SHARE: Develop a plan to disseminate findings and integrate recommendations into exploration requirements & ops. In short, we propose a system engineering approach to roadmap the necessary experiments, analysis, and modeling up front--rather than try to knit together disparate chunks of data into a sensible conclusion after the fact.

Rucker, Michelle↗

NASA NTRS2015

Characterize Human Forward Contamination Project

Let's face it: wherever we go, we will inevitably carry along the little critters that live in and on us. Conventional wisdom has long held that it's unlikely those critters could survive the space environment, but in 2007 microscopic animals called Tardigrades survived exposure to space and in 2008 Cyanobacteria lived for 548 days outside the International Space Station (ISS). But what about the organisms we might reasonably expect a crewed spacecraft to leak or vent? Do we even know what they are? How long might our tiny hitch-hikers survive in close proximity to a warm spacecraft that periodically leaks/vents water or oxygen-and how might they mutate with long-duration exposure? Unlike the Mars rovers that we cleaned once and sent on their way, crew members will provide a constantly regenerating contaminant source. Are we prepared to certify that we can meet forward contamination protocols as we search for life at new destinations? This project has four technical objectives: 1. TEST: Develop a test plan to leverage existing equipment (i.e. ISS) to characterize the kinds of organisms we can reasonably expect pressurized, crewed volumes to vent or leak overboard; as part of testing, we'll need to develop an Extravehicular Activity (EVA)-compatible tool that can withstand the pressure and temperature extremes of space, as well as collect, separate, and store multiple samples; 2. ANALYSIS: Develop an analysis plan to study those organisms in relevant destination environments, including spacecraft-induced conditions; 3. MODEL: Develop a modeling plan to model organism transport mechanisms in relevant destination environments; 4. SHARE: Develop a plan to disseminate findings and integrate recommendations into exploration requirements & ops. In short, we propose a system engineering approach to roadmap the necessary experiments, analysis, and modeling up front--rather than try to knit together disparate chunks of data into a sensible conclusion after the fact.

Rucker, Michelle↗

NASA NTRS2020

High Resolution Global Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Simulations Using the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System, GEOS-CF

We will give an overview of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Composition Forecast system (GEOS-CF), a high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition model developed by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). This system combines the GEOS weather and aerosol model with the GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide a holistic view of atmospheric composition that captures a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and fine particulate matter. The spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees (approx. 25 km) is fine enough to resolve local features such as nighttime ozone titration previously resolved only by urban or regional models. Furthermore, since there are no boundary conditions for a global model, the GEOS-CF captures large-scale processes such as long-range transport of air pollutants from forest fires. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the model’s overall capability to reproduce the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. In addition, we show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid variability, which further improves model estimates at a given surface observation site. The GEOS-CF system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community alike and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. As an example, we will show the use of GEOS-CF during the Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment (SCOAPE). The campaign, conducted in collaboration between NASA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), aims to investigate the response of onshore air quality to Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas exploration, development and production. Detailed gas-phase chemistry, as provided by GEOS-CF, is critical to understand the formation of air pollution related to hydrocarbon emissions from offshore oil and gas activities. The accuracy of GEOS-CF can be further improved by incorporating detailed offshore emissions compiled by BOEM.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

NASA NTRS1989

Lubricant Jet Flow Phenomena in Spur and Helical Gears with Modified Addendums; for Radially Directed Individual Jets

This paper develops the mathematical relations for the Virtual Kinetic Model as an improvement over the vectorial model developed earlier. The model solution described provides the most energy efficient means of cooling gears, i.e., it requires the least pressure or pumping power to distribute the coolant onto the tooth surface. Further, this nozzle orientation allows impingement to the root of the tooth if needed and provides the most cooling control when compared to into-mesh and out-of-mesh cooling.

Akin, Lee S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Lubricant jet flow phenomena in spur and helical gears with modified addendums - For radially directed individual jets

Akin, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Research in LMSS propagation

The Virginia Tech Satellite Communications Group has participated in the Land Mobile Satellite System (LMSS) program through JPL sponsorship since 1985. Involvement has mainly been in modeling and simulation of propagation characteristics and effects. Models developed to predict cummulative fade distributions for fading LMSS signals include LMSSMOD and the Simple Models which approximate LMSSMOD. Models to predict the mean and standard deviation of signal attenuation through roadside vegetation, namely the Average Path Model, were developed. In the area of simulation, efforts have centered around the development of a software simulator that uses data bases derived from experimental data to generate simulated data with arbitrary statistical behavior. This work has progressed to the development of an integrated analysis and simulation package, LIPS. The basic theory and results for the models and simulator have been previously documented in reports and papers. All LMSS activities are summarized and details of this year's efforts are given.

Barts, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Diurnal Forcing of Planetary Atmospheres

This project investigated and developed models which will assist in developing an understanding of the diurnal forcings in the atmospheres of Mars, Venus, Earth and Jupiter. The differences in the temperatures during the day, and night, generate very deep diurnal boundary layers and strong slope-related winds. A general circulation model (GCM) was adapted for computation of Martian atmospheric dynamics, to simulate the global transport of these atmospheric tracers. The model was applied to the study of the Martian seasonal water cycle. The principles have been applied to venus. The region of study is the upper cloud level, and above rather than the area close to the surface. The model was also applied in efforts to study the evolution of volcanic clouds in the Earth's stratosphere. In particular this was used to model the dispersion of sulfuric acid particles in the atmosphere. A brief study of the application of the tidal theory to the planet Jupiter has been undertaken. The goal of the study is to deduce the source of the tidal dissipation which is thought to have led to the orbital resonances amongst the Galilean satellites and considerable heating of the interiors of Io, Europa, and Ganymede.

Houben, Howard C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Developing an Empirical Model for Jet-Surface Interaction Noise

The process of developing an empirical model for jet-surface interaction noise is described and the resulting model evaluated. Jet-surface interaction noise is generated when the high-speed engine exhaust from modern tightly integrated or conventional high-bypass ratio engine aircraft strikes or flows over the airframe surfaces. An empirical model based on an existing experimental database is developed for use in preliminary design system level studies where computation speed and range of configurations is valued over absolute accuracy to select the most promising (or eliminate the worst) possible designs. The model developed assumes that the jet-surface interaction noise spectra can be separated from the jet mixing noise and described as a parabolic function with three coefficients: peak amplitude, spectral width, and peak frequency. These coefficients are fit to functions of surface length and distance from the jet lipline to form a characteristic spectra which is then adjusted for changes in jet velocity and/or observer angle using scaling laws from published theoretical and experimental work. The resulting model is then evaluated for its ability to reproduce the characteristic spectra and then for reproducing spectra measured at other jet velocities and observer angles; successes and limitations are discussed considering the complexity of the jet-surface interaction noise versus the desire for a model that is simple to implement and quick to execute.

Brown, Clifford A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Developing an Empirical Model for Jet-Surface Interaction Noise

The process of developing an empirical model for jet-surface interaction noise is described and the resulting model evaluated. Jet-surface interaction noise is generated when the high-speed engine exhaust from modern tightly integrated or conventional high-bypass ratio engine aircraft strikes or flows over the airframe surfaces. An empirical model based on an existing experimental database is developed for use in preliminary design system level studies where computation speed and range of configurations is valued over absolute accuracy to select the most promising (or eliminate the worst) possible designs. The model developed assumes that the jet-surface interaction noise spectra can be separated from the jet mixing noise and described as a parabolic function with three coefficients: peak amplitude, spectral width, and peak frequency. These coefficients are t to functions of surface length and distance from the jet lipline to form a characteristic spectra which is then adjusted for changes in jet velocity and/or observer angle using scaling laws from published theoretical and experimental work. The resulting model is then evaluated for its ability to reproduce the characteristic spectra and then for reproducing spectra measured at other jet velocities and observer angles; successes and limitations are discussed considering the complexity of the jet-surface interaction noise versus the desire for a model that is simple to implement and quick to execute.

Brown, Clif↗

NASA NTRS1996

Biomass accumulation in hydroponically grown sweetpotato in a controlled environment: a preliminary study

In the development of a plant growth model, the assumptions made and the general equations representing an understanding of plant growth are gradually refined as more information is acquired through experimentation. One such experiment that contributed to sweetpotato model development consisted of measuring biomass accumulation of sweetpotato grown in hydroponic culture in a plant growth chamber. Plants were started from fifteen centimeter long 'TU-82-155' sweetpotato vine cuttings spaced 25 cm apart in each of 18 rectangular growing channels (0.15 by 0.15 by 1.2m) in a system designed to use the nutrient film technique (NFT). Each channel contained four plants. The 3.5m by 5.2m plant growth chamber environmental parameters included an 18h photoperiod, 500 micromoles m-2 s-1 of photosynthetic photon flux (PPF), and a diurnal light/dark temperature of 28 degrees C/22 degrees C. The relative humidity was 80 +/- 5% and the CO2 partial pressure was ambient (350 ppm). The nutrient solution contained in 30L reservoirs was a modified half Hoagland's solution with a 1:2.4 N:K ratio and a pH of 6.2. Solution replenishment occurred when the electrical conductivity (EC) level dropped below 1050. Plants were harvested at 15 days after planting (DAP) and weekly thereafter until day 134. By 57 DAP, stems and fibrous roots had acquired 90% of their total dry biomass, while leaves had reached 84% of their maximum dry biomass. Beginning at 64 DAP dry biomass accumulation in the storage roots dominated the increase in dry biomass for the plants. Dry weight of storage roots at 120 DAP was 165 g/plant or 1.1 kg/m2. Resulting growth curves were consistent with the physiological processes occurring in the plant. Results from this study will be incorporated in a plant growth model for use in conjunction with controlled life support systems for long-term manned space missions.

Biomass↗

NASA NTRS2019

Strong Dependence of Atmospheric Feedbacks on Mixed-Phase Microphysics and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in HadGEM3

We analyze the atmospheric processes that explain the large changes in radiative feed-backs between the two latest climate configurations of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental model. We use a large set of atmosphere-only climate-change simulations (amip and amip-p4K) to separate the contributions to the differences in feedback parameter from all the atmospheric model developments between the two latest model configurations. We show that the differences are mostly driven by changes in the shortwave cloud radiative feedback in the midlatitudes, mainly over the Southern Ocean. Two new schemes explain most of the differences: the introduction of a new aerosol scheme; and the development of a new mixed-phase cloud scheme. Both schemes reduce the strength of the pre-existing shortwave negative cloud feedback in the midlatitudes. The new aerosol scheme dampens a strong aerosol-cloud interaction, and it also suppresses a negative clear-sky shortwave feedback. The mixed-phase scheme increases the amount of cloud liquid water path (LWP) in the present-day, thereby reducing the radiative effciency of the increase of LWP in the warmer climate. It also enhances a strong, pre-existing, positive cloud fraction feedback. We assess the realism of the changes by comparing present-day simulations against observations, and discuss avenues that could help constrain the relevant processes.

HadGEM3↗

NASA NTRS2016

Source Data Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system in which it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for suggesting epistemic component uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide one example for assigning environmental factors uncertainty when translating between operating environments for the microelectronic part-type components. The heuristic guidelines will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for more applicable data to reduce model uncertainty.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2016

Source Data Applicability Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system where it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for assigning uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide a case study example by translating Ground Benign (GB) and Ground Mobile (GM) to the Airborne Uninhabited Fighter (AUF) environment for three electronic components often found in space launch vehicle control systems. The classification method will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need to for more applicable data to reduce uncertainty.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2022

Simultaneous Retrieval of Selected Optical Water Quality Indicators From Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and Sentinel-3

Constructing multi-source satellite-derived water quality (WQ) products in inland and nearshore coastal waters from the past, present, and future missions is a long-standing challenge. Despite inherent differences in sensors’ spectral capability, spatial sampling, and radiometric performance, research efforts focused on formulating, implementing, and validating universal WQ algorithms continue to evolve. This research extends a recently developed machine-learning (ML) model, i.e., Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) (Pahlevan et al., 2020; Smith et al., 2021), to the inverse problem of simultaneously retrieving WQ indicators, including chlorophyll-a (Chla), Total Suspended Solids (TSS), and the absorption by Colored Dissolved Organic Matter at 440 nm (a cdom (440)), across a wide array of aquatic ecosystems. We use a database of in situ measurements to train and optimize MDN models developed for the relevant spectral measurements (400–800 nm) of the Operational Land Imager (OLI), MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI) aboard the Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and Sentinel-3 missions, respectively. Our two performance assessment approaches, namely hold-out and leave-one-out, suggest significant, albeit varying degrees of improvements with respect to second-best algorithms, depending on the sensor and WQ indicator (e.g., 68%, 75%, 117% improvements based on the hold-out method for Chla, TSS, and a cdom (440), respectively from MSI-like spectra). Using these two assessment methods, we provide theoretical upper and lower bounds on model performance when evaluating similar and/or out-of-sample datasets. To evaluate multi-mission product consistency across broad spatial scales, map products are demonstrated for three near-concurrent OLI, MSI, and OLCI acquisitions. Overall, estimated TSS and a cdom (440) from these three missions are consistent within the uncertainty of the model, but Chla maps from MSI and OLCI achieve greater accuracy than those from OLI. By applying two different atmospheric correction processors to OLI and MSI images, we also conduct matchup analyses to quantify the sensitivity of the MDN model and best-practice algorithms to uncertainties in reflectance products. Our model is less or equally sensitive to these uncertainties compared to other algorithms. Recognizing their uncertainties, MDN models can be applied as a global algorithm to enable harmonized retrievals of Chla, TSS, and a cdom (440) in various aquatic ecosystems from multi-source satellite imagery. Local and/or regional ML models tuned with an apt data distribution (e.g., a subset of our dataset) should nevertheless be expected to outperform our global model.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS1976

The aeronomy of odd nitrogen in the thermosphere. II - Twilight emissions

A model developed for the aeronomy of odd nitrogen in the thermosphere is used to analyze rocket measurements of N(4S) and NO densities. Data from Atmosphere Explorer were used to develop a consistent reaction kinetics model for odd nitrogen chemistry. It is concluded that most NO(+) dissociative recombination events must produce N(2D), that N(2D) is quenched by O at a rate of 1 trillionth cu cm per sec, and that the atmospheric O2 quenching rate of N(2D) is consistent with the laboratory rate. The major quenching agent of N(2D) between 140 and 220 km is atomic oxygen, and this reaction is the major source of N(4S). Peak N(4S) densities of about (20-60) million per cu cm at 140-150 km are predicted, with the variability being indicative of the model sensitivity to a factor of 2 change in the O/O2 ratio in the thermosphere.

Strobel, D. F.↗