Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Ocean Modeling Climate Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Response of the Water Cycle of West Africa and Atlantic to Radiative Forcing by Saharan Dust

The responses of the atmospheric water cycle and climate of West Africa and the Atlantic to radiative forcing of Saharan dust are studied using the NASA finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), coupled to a mixed layer ocean. We find evidence in support of the "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism that underlines the responses of the atmospheric water cycle to dust forcing as follow. During the boreal summer, as a result of large-scale atmospheric feed back triggered by absorbing dust aerosols, rainfall and cloudiness are enhanced over the West Africa/Easter Atlantic ITCZ, and suppressed over the West Atlantic and Caribbean. region. Shortwave radiation absorption by dust warms the atmosphere and cools the surface, while long wave has the opposite response. The elevated dust layer warms the air over Nest Africa and the eastern Atlantic. The condensation heating associated with the induced deep convection drives and maintains an anomalous large-scale east-west overturning circulation with rising motion over West Africa/eastern Atlantic, and sinking motion over the Caribbean region. The response also includes a strengthening of the West African monsoon, manifested in northward shift of the West Africa precipitation over land, increased low-level westerlies flow over West Africa at the southern edge of the dust layer, and a near surface energy fluxes, resulting in cooling of the Nest African land and the eastern Atlantic, and a warming in the West Atlantic and Caribbean. The EHP effect is most effective for moderate to highly absorbing dusts, and becomes minimized for reflecting dust with single scattering albedo at 0.95 or higher.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Enhancing New York City's resilience to sea level rise and increased coastal flooding

Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet ice mass losses and potential West Antarctic Ice Sheet instability may lead to higher than previously anticipated future sea levels. The New York City Panel on Climate Change Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) upper-end, low probability sea level rise (SLR) scenario, which incorporates recent ice loss trends, improved ice sheet-ocean-atmosphere modeling, and potential ice sheet destabilization, projects SLR of up to 2.1 m by the 2080s and up to 2.9 m by 2100, at high greenhouse gas emissions (NPCC, 2019). These results exceed previous high-end SLR projections (90th percentile) of 1.5 m by the 2080s and 1.9 m by 2100, relative to 2000–2004 (NPCC, 2015). By 2100, the 1% annual chance (100-year) floodplain could cover 1/3 of the city's total area under ARIM; around 1/5 of the area could be flooded during monthly high tides. Some low-lying locations could become permanently inundated by late century. Will New York City coastal resiliency initiatives, guided, in part by NPCC findings, suffice for very high sea levels? Additional research is needed to determine technological, environmental, or economic limitations to coastal protection and to decide when and where strategic relocation may become necessary.

Sea level rise↗
NASA NTRS2016

Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

Global Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Sensitivity of the Equatorial Pacific ODZ to Particulate Organic Matter Remineralization in A Climate Model Under Pre-Industrial Conditions

Marine oxygen plays a fundamental role in regulating the transfer of organic carbon and nutrients to their dissolved inorganic forms, serving as the terminal electron acceptor for heterotrophic respiration. Oxygen can become limiting to these processes in coastal and open-ocean oxygen deficient zones (ODZs). The maintenance of ODZs depends on the balance between physical processes such as ventilation and biogeochemical processes such as remineralization. These two processes act in opposing directions on ODZs, with ventilation responsible for transporting oxygen from the surface, where it is near saturation with the partial pressure of O2 in the atmosphere, to deeper oxygen-depleted layers, and remineralization acting to consume oxygen through biogeochemical processes such as microbial degradation throughout the water column. Remineralization is represented in all CMIP6 models, but the actual parameterizations, as well as their magnitude, are widely varying. In this study, we examine the sensitivity to remineralization of the equatorial Pacific ODZ O2 ol/kg) in a model; the NASA GISS Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM-G) embedded in the NASA-GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model. We find that increasing the remineralization rate shoals the ODZ onset depth (i.e. the regionally averaged upper bound of the ODZ), and decreases ODZ volume and regional-averaged thickness. Changes in biological consumption and vertical convergence of oxygen are identified as the primary contributors to changes in ODZ onset depth. ODZ thickness is mainly influenced by the shoaling of the bottom boundary of the ODZ, which decreases with maximum remineralization rate due to decreasing oxygen consumption and increasing horizontal oxygen convergence in deep waters. On the other hand, vertically-averaged ODZ area has a more complex, non-monotonic relationship with maximum remineralization rate. While these findings suggest an important role for remineralization in determining the shape of the ODZ in our model, the relative importance of remineralization vs. other physical parameterizations remains to be established. While our results reflect the structure of our ocean biogeochemical model, the relationship of remineralization to ODZ characteristics in other models should be examined to better inform model inter-comparisons.

Oxygen-deficient zone↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Green Sahara: Climate Change, Hydrologic History and Human Occupation

Archaeology can provide insight into interactions of climate change and human activities in sensitive areas such as the Sahara, to the benefit of both disciplines. Such analyses can help set bounds on climate change projections, perhaps identify elements of tipping points, and provide constraints on models. The opportunity exists to more precisely constrain the relationship of natural solar and climate interactions, improving understanding of present and future anthropogenic forcing. We are beginning to explore the relationship of human occupation of the Sahara and long-term solar irradiance variations synergetic with changes in atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns. Archaeological and climate records for the last 12 K years are gaining adequate precision to make such comparisons possible. We employ a range of climate records taken over the globe (e.g. Antarctica, Greenland, Cariaco Basin, West African Ocean cores, records from caves) to identify the timing and spatial patterns affecting Saharan climate to compare with archaeological records. We see correlation in changing ocean temperature patterns approx. contemporaneous with drying of the Sahara approx. 6K years BP. The role of radar images and other remote sensing in this work includes providing a geographically comprehensive geomorphic overview of this key area. Such coverage is becoming available from the Japanese PALSAR radar system, which can guide field work to collect archaeological and climatic data to further constrain the climate change chronology and link to models. Our initial remote sensing efforts concentrate on the Gilf Kebir area of Egypt.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS1988

Multi-property modeling of ocean basin carbon fluxes

The objectives of this project were to elucidate the causal mechanisms in some of the most important features of the global ocean/atomsphere carbon system. These included the interaction of physical and biological processes in the seasonal cycle of surface water pCo2, and links between productivity, surface chlorophyll, and the carbon cycle that would aid global modeling efforts. In addition, several other areas of critical scientific interest involving links between the marine biosphere and the global carbon cycle were successfully pursued; specifically, a possible relation between phytoplankton emitted DMS and climate, and a relation between the location of calcium carbonate burial in the ocean and metamorphic source fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere. Six published papers covering the following topics are summarized: (1) Mass extinctions, atmospheric sulphur and climatic warming at the K/T boundary; (2) Sensitivity of climate and atmospheric CO2 to deep-ocean and shallow-ocean carbonate burial; (3) Controls on CO2 sources and sinks in the earthscale surface ocean; (4) pre-anthropogenic, earthscale patterns of delta pCO2 between ocean and atmosphere; (5) Effect on atmospheric CO2 from seasonal variations in the high latitude ocean; and (6) Limitations or relating ocean surface chlorophyll to productivity.

Volk, Tyler↗
NASA NTRS2022

Asymmetric Warming/Cooling Response to CO2 Increase/Decrease Mainly Due to Non-Logarithmic Forcing, not Feedbacks

We explore the CO2 dependence of effective climate sensitivity (SG) with symmetric abrupt and transient CO2 forcing, spanning the range 1/8×, 1/4×, 1/2×, 2×, 4×, and 8×CO2, using two state-of-the-art fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-land models. In both models, under abrupt CO2 forcing, we find an asymmetric response in surface temperature and SG. The surface global warming at 8×CO2 is more than one third larger than the corresponding cooling at 1/8×CO2, and SG is CO2 dependent, increasing non-monotonically from 1/8×CO2 to 8×CO2. We find similar CO2 dependence in the transient runs, forced with -1%yr−1CO2 and +1%yr−1CO2 up to 1/8×CO2 and 8×CO2, respectively. The non-logarithmic radiative forcing – not the changing feedbacks – primarily explains the dependence of SG on CO2, particularly at low CO2 levels. The changing feedbacks, however, explain SG’s non-monotonic behavior.

climate sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling Dust Mineralogical Composition: Sensitivity to Soil Mineralogy Atlases and Their Expected Climate Impacts

Soil dust aerosols are a key component of the climate system, as they interact with short- and long-wave radiation, alter cloud formation processes, affect atmospheric chemistry and play a role in biogeochemical cycles by providing nutrient inputs such as iron and phosphorus. The influence of dust on these processes depends on its physicochemical properties, which, far from being homogeneous, are shaped by its regionally varying mineral composition. The relative amount of minerals in dust depends on the source region and shows a large geographical variability. However, many state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs), upon which climate analyses and projections rely, still consider dust mineralogy to be invariant. The explicit representation of minerals in ESMs is more hindered by our limited knowledge of the global soil composition along with the resulting size-resolved airborne mineralogy than by computational constraints. In this work we introduce an explicit mineralogy representation within the state-of-the-art Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry (MONARCH) model. We review and compare two existing soil mineralogy datasets, which remain a source of uncertainty for dust mineralogy modeling and provide an evaluation of multiannual simulations against available mineralogy observations. Soil mineralogy datasets are based on measurements performed after wet sieving, which breaks the aggregates found in the parent soil. Our model predicts the emitted particle size distribution (PSD) in terms of its constituent minerals based on brittle fragmentation theory (BFT), which reconstructs the emitted mineral aggregates destroyed by wet sieving. Our simulations broadly reproduce the most abundant mineral fractions independently of the soil composition data used. Feldspars and calcite are highly sensitive to the soil mineralogy map, mainly due to the different assumptions made in each soil dataset to extrapolate a handful of soil measurements to arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. For the least abundant or more difficult-to-determine minerals, such as iron oxides, uncertainties in soil mineralogy yield differences in annual mean aerosol mass fractions of up to ∼ 100 %. Although BFT restores coarse aggregates including phyllosilicates that usually break during soil analysis, we still identify an overestimation of coarse quartz mass fractions (above 2 µm in diameter). In a dedicated experiment, we estimate the fraction of dust with undetermined composition as given by a soil map, which makes up ∼ 10 % of the emitted dust mass at the global scale and can be regionally larger. Changes in the underlying soil mineralogy impact our estimates of climate-relevant variables, particularly affecting the regional variability of the single-scattering albedo at solar wavelengths or the total iron deposited over oceans. All in all, this assessment represents a baseline for future model experiments including new mineralogical maps constrained by high-quality spaceborne hyperspectral measurements, such as those arising from the NASA Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission.

Soil dust↗
NASA NTRS1992

Bolide impacts and the oxidation state of carbon in the Earth's early atmosphere

A one-dimensional photochemical model was used to examine the effect of bolide impacts on the oxidation state of Earth's primitive atmosphere. The impact rate should have been high prior to 3.8 Ga before present, based on evidence derived from the Moon. Impacts of comets or carbonaceous asteroids should have enhanced the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by bringing in CO ice and/or organic carbon that can be oxidized to CO in the impact plume. Ordinary chondritic impactors would contain elemental iron that could have reacted with ambient CO2 to give CO. Nitric oxide (NO) should also have been produced by reaction between ambient CO2 and N2 in the hot impact plumes. High NO concentrations increase the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by increasing the rainout rate of oxidized gases. According to the model, atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios of unity or greater are possible during the first several hundred million years of Earth's history, provided that dissolved CO was not rapidly oxidized to bicarbonate in the ocean. Specifically, high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios are possible if either: (1) the climate was cool (like today's climate), so that hydration of dissolved CO to formate was slow, or (2) the formate formed from CO was efficiently converted into volatile, reduced carbon compounds, such as methane. A high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio may have helped to facilitate prebiotic synthesis by enhancing the production rates of hydrogen cyanide and formaldehyde. Formaldehyde may have been produced even more efficiently by photochemical reduction of bicarbonate and formate in Fe(++)-rich surface waters.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

A LEO Hyperspectral Mission Implementation for Global Carbon Cycle Observations

For both terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle science objectives, high resolution (less than l0 nm) imaging spectrometers capable of acquiring multiple regional to global scale observations per day should enable the development of new remote sensing measurements for important but as yet unobservable variables, with the overall goal of linking both terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle processes to climate variability. For terrestrial research, accurate estimates of carbon, water and energy (CWE) exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere a needed to id- the geographical locations and temporal dynamics of carbon sources/sinks and to improve regional climate models and climate change assessments. It is an enormous challenge to estimate CWE exchange from the infrequent temporal coverage and sparse spectral information provided by most single polar-orbiting, earth-looking satellite. The available satellite observations lack a sufficient number of well-placed narrow bands from which to derive spectral indices that capture vegetation responses to stress conditions associated with down-regulation of photosynthesis. Physiological status can best be assessed with spectral indices based on continuous, narrow bands in the visible/near infrared spectra, as can seasonal and annual terrestrial productivity. For coastal and ocean constituents, narrow-band observations in the ultraviolet and visible are essential to investigate the variability, dynamics and biogeochemical cycles of the world's coastal and open ocean regions, which will in turn help in measuring ocean productivity and predicting the variability of ocean carbon uptake and its role in climate change.

Gervin, Janette C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Change Impact on Surface Ozone Based on CMIP6 Earth System Models

It is presented an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone (O3) discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modeling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. All models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv oC-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions, which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone chemical loss with higher water vapour abudances under a warmer climate. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv oC-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. The individual models show this robustly for south-eastern China and India as well as for regions of Africa but there are inter-model differences in areas within Europe and the United States (US) as well as in South America. The future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1991

Future chlorine-bromine loading and ozone depletion

The prediction of future ozone requires three elements: (1) a scenario for the net emissions of chemically and radiatively active trace gases from the land and oceans; (2) a global atmospheric model that projects the accumulation of these gases; and (3) a chemical transport model that describes the distribution of ozone for a prescribed atmospheric composition and climate. This chapter, of necessity, presents models for all three elements and focuses on the following: (1) atmospheric abundance of chlorine and bromine in the form of halocarbons; and (2) the associated perturbations to stratospheric ozone.

Prather, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

Cane, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

2002 Blue Marble and Developments in HDTV Technology for Public Outreach

Fritz Hasler (NASA/Goddard) will demonstrate the latest Blue Marble Digital Earth technology. We will fly in from space through Terra, Landsat 7, to 1 m Ikonos "Spy Satellite" data of Disney World and the Orlando Convention Center. You will see the complete global cloud free and cloudy 500 m datasets from the EOS Terra satellite. Spectacular new animations from Terra, Landsat 7, and SeaWiFS will be presented. See also animations of the hurricanes & tropical storms of the 2001 season, as well as Floyd, Georges, and Mitch, etc. from GOES & TRMM supported by MM5 3-D nested numerical model results. See movies assembled using new low cost HDTV nonlinear editing equipment that is revolutionizing the way we communicate scientific results. See climate change in action with Global Land & Ocean productivity changes over the last 20 years. Remote sensing observations of ocean SST, height, winds, color, and El Nino from GOES, AVHRR, SSMI & SeaWiFS are put in context with atmospheric and ocean simulations. Compare symmetrical equatorial eddies observed by GOES with the simulations.

Hasler, Fritz↗
NASA NTRS2006

Determination of Ice Water Path in Ice-over-Water Cloud Systems Using Combined MODIS and AMSR-E Measurements

To provide more accurate ice cloud properties for evaluating climate models, the updated version of multi-layered cloud retrieval system (MCRS) is used to retrieve ice water path (IWP) in ice-over-water cloud systems over global ocean using combined instrument data from the Aqua satellite. The liquid water path (LWP) of lower layer water clouds is estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) measurements. With the lower layer LWP known, the properties of the upper-level ice clouds are then derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer measurements by matching simulated radiances from a two-cloud layer radiative transfer model. Comparisons with single-layer cirrus systems and surface-based radar retrievals show that the MCRS can significantly improve the accuracy and reduce the over-estimation of optical depth and ice water path retrievals for ice over-water cloud systems. During the period from December 2004 through February 2005, the mean daytime ice cloud optical depth and IWP for overlapped ice-over-water clouds over ocean from Aqua are 7.6 and 146.4 gm(sup -2), respectively, significantly less than the initial single layer retrievals of 17.3 and 322.3 gm(sup -2). The mean IWP for actual single-layer clouds was 128.2 gm(sup -2).

Huang, Jianping↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctica’s floating ice shelves accounts for about half of their mass loss in steady state, where gains in ice-shelf mass are balanced by losses. Ice-shelf thickness changes driven by varying basal melt rates modulate mass loss from the grounded ice sheet and its contribution to sea level, and the changing meltwater fluxes influence climate processes in the Southern Ocean. Existing continent-wide melt-rate datasets have no temporal variability, introducing uncertainties in sea level and climate projections. Here, we combine surface height data from satellite radar altimeters with satellite-derived ice velocities and a new model of firn-layer evolution to generate a high-resolution map of time-averaged (2010–2018) basal melt rates and time series (1994–2018) of meltwater fluxes for most ice shelves. Total basal meltwater flux in 1994 (1,090 ± 150 Gt/yr) was similar to the steady-state value (1,100 ± 60 Gt/yr), but increased to 1,570 ± 140 Gt/yr in 2009, followed by a decline to 1,160 ± 150 Gt/yr in 2018. For the four largest ‘cold-water’ ice shelves, we partition meltwater fluxes into deep and shallow sources to reveal distinct signatures of temporal variability, providing insights into climate forcing of basal melting and the impact of this melting on the Southern Ocean.

Susheel Adusumilli↗
NASA NTRS2022

Scientific Data From Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project

This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understanding of how changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation perturb the Earth’s radiation balance and its climate response in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we provide global and annual mean results for a large set of coupled atmospheric-ocean GCM simulations and a description of how to easily extract files from the dataset. The simulations consist of single idealized perturbations to the climate system and have been shown to achieve important insight in complex climate simulations. We therefore expect this data set to be valuable and highly used to understand simulations from complex GCMs and Earth System Models for various phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercompariso↗