SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictive Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing impurity sourcing and transport in the high temperature boundary of DIII-D wide pedestal QH-mode plasmas

Wide Pedestal QH-mode (WPQH) plasmas in the DIII-D tokamak show a sheath limited SOL, where electron density and temperature remain nearly constant along field lines from the midplane to the divertor. Consequently, parallel gradients are weak. The first Langmuir probe measurements in this regime point to a high sheath temperature with target electron temperature T e up to ~150 eV, leading to high carbon self-sputtering. Midplane carbon densities from SOLPS-ITER modeling of these plasmas in a double-null configuration fall far below experimental measurements unless full drifts are activated. In the drift-dependent SOLPS-ITER modeling, anomalous poloidally uniform, radially varying transport is adjusted to match measured radial electron temperature and density profiles in the pedestal and SOL region. The resulting carbon density (C6+) matches measured carbon densities just inside the separatrix. The C2+ density near the outer strike point is also consistent with spectroscopic imaging. With the ion B×∇B drift towards the X-point, carbon in the lower divertors is redistributed from the private flux region to the high field side (HFS) and pushed upstream in the SOL by poloidal E×B drifts. The B × ∇B drift dominates the radial flow of carbon as it moves upstream. Simulations with reversed toroidal field (ion B × ∇B drift away from the X-point) show a radically different behavior, where carbon accumulates on the low field side in lower divertors, and is pushed towards the HFS in the upper divertors, indicating a strong effect of particle drifts on impurity distribution. In double-null configurations which are usually used in WPQH plasmas, these drift effects tend to counterbalance, so that the carbon density and Z eff are reduced at the outer mid-plane only modestly, by around 7% in the modeling. Further predictive modeling indicates that the carbon density can be significantly reduced by an order of magnitude by implementing a single-null shape with reversed toroidal field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Strain Sensing Characteristics of a 128° YX-Cut LiNbO 3 Rayleigh-Mode SAW Sensor From Room to Cryogenic Temperatures

Accurate, passive, and wireless monitoring of cryogenic hardware is essential for high-energy physics, space propulsion, and biomedical instrumentation. Here, this study quantifies the coupled temperature-strain behavior of Rayleigh-mode surface acoustic-wave (SAW) delay-line sensors fabricated on 128° YX-cut LiNbO 3 . A nonlinear finite element (FE) model incorporating Varshni-based elastic constants, higher-order thermal expansion, and temperature-dependent piezo- and dielectric coefficients was developed and validated experimentally between 280K and 80K. Free-standing (first test condition) and bonded/wired (second test condition) devices exhibited indistinguishable thermal responses; the average temperature coefficient of delay (TCD) in the critical cryogenic range from 130K down to 80K differed by only 0.15 ppm/K (0.32%), confirming that bonding-induced stress is negligible. Over 280-80K the measured TCD was 61.77 ppm/K, while the FE model predicted an equivalent temperature coefficient of frequency (TCF) of −62.74 ppm/K with an overall coefficient of determination R2 = 0.998. In the critical cryogenic interval 130-80K the TCD fell to 47.66 ppm/K, indicating improved thermal stability at low temperature. Controlled loading (0-300 με) revealed a strain coefficient of delay (SCD) that rises from 0.53 ± 0.02 ppm/με at 300K to 1.05 ± 0.02 ppm/με at 80K. This modest sensitivity confirms that, for temperature sensing, strain is a second-order perturbation above 135K but must be compensated at deeper cryogenic levels. Overall, this work establishes a predictive multiphysics model together with repeatable wired measurements that confirm the suitability of SAW sensors for temperature and strain monitoring in extreme cryogenic environments, while also providing a baseline for future wireless implementations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

The growth-environment relationships for greenhouse and field conditions are compared, and the development of growth-prediction models for spring wheat is discussed along with the development of models for predicting the date for spring wheat emergence in North Dakota.

Haun, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Observing, analyzing, and modeling mesoscale weather phenomena

The objective of the paper is to place current research into mesoscale weather phenomena in proper perspective, and to discuss key problems to be addressed in the coming years. Key observing systems and field programs are examined, along with analysis techniques in context of the dynamic models with which they interact. The discussion covers different classes of dynamic models, including prediction models, simulation models, and parameterization schemes.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Soil temperature extrema recovery rates after precipitation cooling

From a one dimensional view of temperature alone variations at the Earth's surface manifest themselves in two cyclic patterns of diurnal and annual periods, due principally to the effects of diurnal and seasonal changes in solar heating as well as gains and losses of available moisture. Beside these two well known cyclic patterns, a third cycle has been identified which occurs in values of diurnal maxima and minima soil temperature extrema at 10 cm depth usually over a mesoscale period of roughly 3 to 14 days. This mesoscale period cycle starts with precipitation cooling of soil and is followed by a power curve temperature recovery. The temperature recovery clearly depends on solar heating of the soil with an increased soil moisture content from precipitation combined with evaporation cooling at soil temperatures lowered by precipitation cooling, but is quite regular and universal for vastly different geographical locations, and soil types and structures. The regularity of the power curve recovery allows a predictive model approach over the recovery period. Multivariable linear regression models alloy predictions of both the power of the temperature recovery curve as well as the total temperature recovery amplitude of the mesoscale temperature recovery, from data available one day after the temperature recovery begins.

Welker, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Coherent motions in the turbulent boundary layer

The role of coherent structures in the production and dissipation of turbulence in a boundary layer is characterized, summarizing the results of recent investigations. Coherent motion is defined as a three-dimensional region of flow where at least one fundamental variable exhibits significant correlation with itself or with another variable over a space or time range significantly larger than the smallest local scales of the flow. Sections are then devoted to flow-visualization experiments, statistical analyses, numerical simulation techniques, the history of coherent-structure studies, vortices and vortical structures, conceptual models, and predictive models. Diagrams and graphs are provided.

Robinson, Stephen K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Direction angle sensitivity of agricultural field backscatter with AIRSAR data

This paper presents a study of the direction angle sensitivity of radar backscatter from agricultural fields. The direction angle is defined as the angle between the incident plane and the perpendicular to the field row direction. Previous studies have concentrated on comparing the backscatter of agricultural fields imaged with 0, 45, and 90 degree direction angles. In contrast, this study concentrates on the backscatter changes occurring when the direction angle is modified by a few degrees or even by fractions of a degree. This is possible by using the output of the NASA/JPL AIRSAR processor, in which sixteen independent frames are formed, each one corresponding to the same radar scene imaged with a slightly different squint angle. The studied data set is an agricultural area in La Mancha, Spain acquired in June and July 1991 during the EFEDA experiment. This paper describes the observed backscatter variations of the agricultural fields with direction angle measured at P, L, and C bands. As expected, the backscatter is maximum for a 0 degree direction angle. For several fields, the backscatter at P and L bands drops by more than 10 dB for a 5 degree change in direction angle. Furthermore, the sensitivity to the direction angle decreases with increasing vegetation. The variations in backscatter are compared with model predictions. One model, which agrees with scatterometer data, underestimates the observed backscatter variations with direction angle by more than 10 dB. It does not take into account the possible coherent component of the radar signal. We believe the strong direction sensitivity of agricultural field backscatter obtained with SAR data is due to a Bragg resonant effect, resulting in a strong coherent return when the direction angle is zero. The observations are then projected to the case of spaceborne SAR data.

Dubois, Pascale C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Abundance and composition of solar KR in the H3-H6 chondrite ACFER111

He/Ne, Ne/Ar, and Ar/Kr abundance ratios of solar gases extracted by stepped heating, stepped oxidation, and stepped etching of lunar and meteoritic regoliths are significantly lower than ratios measured directly or predicted by model estimates. Of these, the differences in the He/Ne and Ne/Ar ratios are explained to be owing to diffusive fractionation losses from the host minerals. In contrast, it remains controversial if the Ar/Kr and Kr/Xe ratios were fractionated prior to or after the implantation of the gases into the minerals. In the H3-H6 chondritic regolith breccia ACFER 111, measured He/Ne and Ne/Ar ratios appear to be of nearly unfractionated solar composition. The Ar/Kr ratio of ACFER 111, might thus be also unfractionated. We examined by stepped etching a metal sample of ACFER 111 and obtained an average solar 36Ar/84Kr = 3150 plus or minus 300 which is in agreement with the model predictions. The isotopic composition of solar Kr was observed to change in the course of the etching in a way very similar to that report for lunar ilmenites by the Zurich group. This can be interpreted as a change of the mixing ratio of Solar Wind (SW) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEP). The isotopic composition of the SEP component obtained from our Kr data, however, is distinct from that reported by the Zurich group.

Pedroni, A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Low Stretch Solid-Fuel Flame Transient Response to a Step Change in Gravity

The effect of a step change in gravity level on the stability of low stretch diffusion flames over a solid fuel is studied both numerically and experimentally. Drop tower experiments have been conducted in NASA Glenn Research Center's 5.2 Zero Gravity Facility. In the experiments burning PMMA cylinders, a dynamic transition is observed when the steadily burning 1g flame is dropped and becomes a 0g flame. To understand the physics behind this dynamic transition, a transient stagnation point model has been developed which includes gas-phase radiation and solid phase coupling to describe this dynamic process. In this paper, the experimental results are compared with the model predictions. Both model and experiment show that the interior of the solid phase does not have time to change significantly in the few seconds of drop time, so the experimental results are pseudo-steady in the gas-phase, but the solid is inherently unsteady over long time scales. The model is also used to examine the importance of fractional heat losses on extinction, which clearly demonstrates that as the feedback from the flame decreases, the importance of the ongoing heat losses becomes greater, and extinction is observed when these losses represent 80% or more of the flame feedback.

Armstrong, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Underexpanded Screeching Jets From Circular, Rectangular, and Elliptic Nozzles

The screech frequency and amplitude, the shock spacing, the hydrodynamic-acoustic standing wave spacing, and the convective velocity of large organized structures are measured in the nominal Mach number range of 1.1 less than or = Mj less that or = l0.9 for supersonic, underexpanded jets exhausting from a circular, a rectangular and an elliptic nozzle. This provides a carefully measured data set useful in comparing the importance of various physical parameters in the screech generation process. The hydrodynamic-acoustic standing wave is formed between the potential pressure field of large turbulent structures and the acoustic pressure field of the screech sound. It has been demonstrated earlier that in the currently available screech frequency prediction models replacement of the shock spacing by the standing wave spacing provides an exact expression. In view of this newly found evidence, a comparison is made between the average standing wavelength and the average shock spacing. It is found that there exists a small, yet important, difference, which is dependent on the azimuthal screech mode. For example, in the flapping modes of circular, rectangular, and elliptic jets, the standing wavelength is slightly longer than the shock spacing, while for the helical screech mode in a circular jet the opposite is true. This difference accounts for the departure of the existing models from predicting the exact screech frequency. Another important parameter, necessary in screech prediction, is the convective velocity of the large organized structures. It is demonstrated that the presence of the hydrodynamic-acoustic standing wave, even inside the jet shear layer, becomes a significant source of error in the convective velocity data obtained using the conventional methods. However, a new relationship, using the standing wavelength and screech frequency is shown to provide more accurate results.

Panda, J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Contrail Tracking and ARM Data Product Development

A contrail tracking system was developed to help in the assessment of the effect of commercial jet contrails on the Earth's radiative budget. The tracking system was built by combining meteorological data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) numerical weather prediction model with commercial air traffic flight track data and satellite imagery. A statistical contrail-forecasting model was created a combination of surface-based contrail observations and numerical weather analyses and forecasts. This model allows predictions of widespread contrail occurrences for contrail research on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. Satellite-derived cirrus cloud properties in polluted and unpolluted regions were compared to determine the impact of air traffic on cirrus.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Martian Radiation Environment: Model Calculations and Recent Measurements with "MARIE"

The Galactic Cosmic Ray spectra in Mars orbit were generated with the recently expanded HZETRN (High Z and Energy Transport) and QMSFRG (Quantum Multiple-Scattering theory of nuclear Fragmentation) model calculations. These model calculations are compared with the first eighteen months of measured data from the MARIE (Martian Radiation Environment Experiment) instrument onboard the 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft that is currently in Martian orbit. The dose rates observed by the MARIE instrument are within 10% of the model calculated predictions. Model calculations are compared with the MARIE measurements of dose, dose-equivalent values, along with the available particle flux distribution. Model calculated particle flux includes GCR elemental composition of atomic number, Z = 1-28 and mass number, A = 1-58. Particle flux calculations specific for the current MARIE mapping period are reviewed and presented.

Saganti, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS1999

ISO Mid-Infrared Spectra of Reflection Nebulae

Our goal is to test predictions of models attributing the IEFs to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Interstellar models predict PAHs change from singly ionized to neutral as the UV intensity, Go, decreases.

reflection nebulae dust infrared astronomy↗

NASA NTRS2006

Design Parameters Influencing Reliability of CCGA Assembly: A Sensitivity Analysis

Area Array microelectronic packages with small pitch and large I/O counts are now widely used in microelectronics packaging. The impact of various package design and materials/process parameters on reliability has been studied through extensive literature review. Reliability of Ceramic Column Grid Array (CCGA) package assemblies has been evaluated using JPL thermal cycle test results (-50(deg)/75(deg)C, -55(deg)/100(deg)C, and -55(deg)/125(deg)C), as well as those reported by other investigators. A sensitivity analysis has been performed using the literature da to study the impact of design parameters and global/local stress conditions on assembly reliability. The applicability of various life-prediction models for CCGA design has been investigated by comparing model's predictions with the experimental thermal cycling data. Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis has been conducted to assess the state of the stress/strain in CCGA assembly under different thermal cycling, and to explain the different failure modes and locations observed in JPL test assemblies.

reliability↗

NASA NTRS2011

NEXRAD-In-Space: A Geostationary Orbiting Doppler Radar for Hurricane Monitoring and Studies

Under NASA's Earth Science Technology Program, a novel mission concept has been developed for detailed monitoring of hurricanes, cyclones, and severe storms from a geostationary orbit: "NEXRAD in Space" (NIS). By operating in the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), NIS would enable rapid-update sampling (less than or equal to 1 hour cadence) of three dimenional fields of 35 GHz (Ka-band) radar reflectivity factor (Z) and line-of-sight Doppler velocity (VD) profiles, at mesoscale horizontal resolutions (approx. 10 km) over a circular Earth region of approximately 5300 km in diameter (equivalent to much of an oceanic basin, such as the Atlantic). NIS GEO-radar concept was chosen as one of only four potential post-2020 missions for the Weather Focus area in the 2007-2016 NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Science Plan. The results of the first project aiming at developing the NIS concept highlighted the enormous potential of such mission, and the technological challenges presented by it. In essence, it is because of its rapid-cadence capability that NIS science planning is focusing on hurricane monitoring and prediction. Hurricanes, or generically tropical cyclones (TCs), have always been among the most devastating natural phenomena. This has been painfully reiterated in recent years with a number of powerful TCs landfalling in North America and elsewhere. In April 2007, the first NIS Science Workshop was convened at the University of Miami to galvanize the scientific community's interest in NIS's measurement capabilities for improved TC monitoring and prediction. The general consensus of the workshop was that a GEO Doppler radar would provide a major breakthrough in regards to the observation of TCs, and, when combined with cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents brief summaries of the instrument concept, the current technology status, the anticipated impacts on hurricane monitoring and model prediction, and the future science and technology roadmap.

precipitation↗

NASA NTRS2016

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections.

earth system models (ESMs)↗

NASA NTRS2019

Complex Organic Molecules in the Star-Forming Regions of the Magellanic Clouds

The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC), gas-rich dwarf companions of the Milky Way, are the nearest laboratories for detailed studies on the formation and survival of complex organic molecules (COMs) under metal-poor conditions. To date, only methanol, methyl formate, and dimethyl ether have been detected in these galaxiesall three toward two hot cores in the N113 star-forming region in the LMC, the only extragalactic sources exhibiting complex hot-core chemistry. We describe a small and diverse sample of the LMC and SMC sources associated with COMs or hot-core chemistry, and compare the observations to theoretical model predictions. Theoretical models accounting for the physical conditions and metallicity of hot molecular cores in the Magellanic Clouds have been able to broadly account for the existing observations, but they fail to reproduce the dimethyl ether abundance by more than an order of magnitude. We discuss future prospects for research in the eld of complex chemistry in the low- metallicity environment. The detection of COMs in the Magellanic Clouds has important implications for astrobiology. The metallicity of the Magellanic Clouds is similar to that of galaxies in the earlier epochs of the universe; thus, the presence of COMs in the LMC and SMC indicates that a similar prebiotic chemistry leading to the emergence of life, as it happened on Earth, is possible in low-metallicity systems in the earlier universe.

Sewilo, Marta M.↗