Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictive science”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

NASA Composite Materials Development: Lessons Learned and Future Challenges

Composite materials have emerged as the materials of choice for increasing the performance and reducing the weight and cost of military, general aviation, and transport aircraft and space launch vehicles. Major advancements have been made in the ability to design, fabricate, and analyze large complex aerospace structures. The recent efforts by Boeing and Airbus to incorporate composite into primary load carrying structures of large commercial transports and to certify the airworthiness of these structures is evidence of the significant advancements made in understanding and use of these materials in real world aircraft. NASA has been engaged in research on composites since the late 1960 s and has worked to address many development issues with these materials in an effort to ensure safety, improve performance, and improve affordability of air travel for the public good. This research has ranged from synthesis of advanced resin chemistries to development of mathematical analyses tools to reliably predict the response of built-up structures under combined load conditions. The lessons learned from this research are highlighted with specific examples to illustrate the problems encountered and solutions to these problems. Examples include specific technologies related to environmental effects, processing science, fabrication technologies, nondestructive inspection, damage tolerance, micromechanics, structural mechanics, and residual life prediction. The current state of the technology is reviewed and key issues requiring additional research identified. Also, grand challenges to be solved for expanded use of composites in aero structures are identified.

Tenney, Darrel R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tencoder: tensor-product encoder-decoder architecture for predicting solutions of PDEs with variable boundary data

It is widely hoped that artificial intelligence will boost data-driven surrogate models in science and engineering. However, fundamental spatial aspects of AI surrogate models remain under-studied. We investigate the ability of neural-network surrogate models to predict solutions to PDEs under variable boundary values. We do not wish to retrain the model when the boundary values change but to make them inputs to the model and infer the solution of the PDE under those boundary conditions. Such a capability is essential to making AI-based surrogate models practically useful. While simple feedforward networks are used for one-dimensional (1D) Poisson equation, an encoder-decoder architecture with a tensor-product layer is developed for the two-dimensional Poisson equation posed on a rectangular domain. We show that it is indeed possible to infer solutions to PDEs from variable boundary data using neural networks in this relatively simple setting, and point to future directions.

Kashi, Aditya↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Three-Dimensional Nonequilibrium Boundary Layer Stability & Transition Analysis For Martian Entry

In this work, we apply the boundary layer stability code LASTRAC, modified to include chemical and thermal nonequilibrium capabilities, to a simulated test case based on literature, with three-dimensional effects. LASTRAC provides Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE)as well as Linear Stability Theory (LST) to predict the stability of a boundary layer and transition with semiempirical eN methods. Tests of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)indicated a range of laminar to transitional flow conditions. In order to reduce the weight of Thermal Protection Systems (TPS), reliable prediction of transition and an understanding of the environmental factors that contribute to transition are necessary. This work is a step towards addressing this need, including the effects of thermochemical nonequilibrium but neglecting radiation, ablation, and ionization effects. Our results indicate that an oblique first mode produces maximum N-Factors on the symmetry plane, however with N-Factors too small to explain transition. Although we are able to show nonequilibrium three-dimensional PSE results inCO2, further study with improved mean flow solutions, accounting for some of the uncertainties inherent in this analysis, or evaluation of alternative transition mechanisms is needed to explain transition in the wind tunnel cases examined here.

H L Kline↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of artificial intelligence for application in contemporary materials science

Abstract Contemporary materials science has seen an increasing application of various artificial intelligence techniques in an attempt to accelerate the materials discovery process using forward modeling for predictive analysis and inverse modeling for optimization and design. Over the last decade or so, the increasing availability of computational power and large materials datasets has led to a continuous evolution in the complexity of the techniques used to advance the frontier. In this Review, we provide a high-level overview of the evolution of artificial intelligence in contemporary materials science for the task of materials property prediction in forward modeling. Each stage of evolution is accompanied by an outline of some of the commonly used methodologies and applications. We conclude the work by providing potential future ideas for further development of artificial intelligence in materials science to facilitate the discovery, design, and deployment workflow. Graphical abstract

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization-based control using input convex neural networks

Input convex neural networks (ICNNs) are a family of deep learning models where the outputs are constructed to be convex functions of the inputs. By parameterizing system models using ICNNs, optimization-based control problems can be solved as convex optimization problems, leading to improved performance and robustness. This work proposes a novel framework where the control objective function and constraints are modelled using ICNNs. A case study of optimization-based control with output constraints is conducted on a process with input multiplicity and nonminimum phase behavior. The simulation results demonstrate improved economic yield compared with normal neural networks. Additionally, the input convexity formulation is compared with simple regularization techniques, and unique benefits such as improved data efficiency and robustness of the proposed formulation are shown. Finally, by explicitly incorporating prior knowledge about convexity, this framework provides a good balance between the universal approximation power of deep learning and computational feasibility required by control.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability

Adaptation to future sea-level rise is based on projections of continuously improving climate models. These projections are accompanied by inherent uncertainties, including those due to internal climate variability (ICV). The ICV arises from complex and unpredictable interactions within and between climate-system components, rendering its impact irreducible. Although neglecting this uncertainty can lead to an underestimation of future sea-level rise, its estimation and impacts have not been fully explored. Combining the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble experiments with power-law statistics, we show that, by 2100, if the ICV uncertainty reaches its upper limit, new sea-level-rise hotspots would appear in Southeast Asian megacities (Chennai, Kolkata, Yangon, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City and Manila), in western tropical Pacific Islands and the Western Indian Ocean. Here, the better the ICV uncertainty is taken into account and correctly estimated, the more effective adaptation strategies can be elaborated with confidence and actions to follow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid loss of complex polymers and pyrogenic carbon in subsoils under whole-soil warming

Subsoils contain more than half of soil organic carbon (SOC) and are expected to experience rapid warming in the coming decades. Yet our understanding of the stability of this vast carbon pool under global warming is uncertain. In particular, the fate of complex molecular structures (polymers) remains debated. Here we show that 4.5 years of whole-soil warming (+4 °C) resulted in less polymeric SOC (sum of specific polymers contributing to SOC) in the warmed subsoil (20–90 cm) relative to control, with no detectable change in topsoil. Warming stimulated the subsoil loss of lignin phenols (–17 ± 0%) derived from woody plant biomass, hydrolysable lipids cutin and suberin, derived from leaf and woody plant biomass (–28 ± 3%), and pyrogenic carbon (–37 ± 8%) produced during incomplete combustion. Given that these compounds have been proposed for long-term carbon sequestration, it is notable that they were rapidly lost in warmed soils. We conclude that complex polymeric carbon in subsoil is vulnerable to decomposition and propose that molecular structure alone may not protect compounds from degradation under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Capturing convection essential for projections of climate change in African dust emission

The summertime Sahara and Sahel are the world’s largest source of airborne mineral dust. Cold-pool outflows from moist convection (‘haboobs’) are a dominant source of summertime uplift but are essentially missing in global models, raising major questions on the reliability of climate projections of dust and dust impacts. Here we use convection-permitting simulations of pan-African climate change, which explicitly capture haboobs, to investigate whether this key limitation of global models affects projections. We show that explicit convection is key to capturing the observed summertime maximum of dust-generating winds, which is missed with parameterised convection. Despite this, future climate changes in dust-generating winds are more sensitive to the effects of explicit convection on the wider meteorology than they are to the haboobs themselves, with model differences in the change in dust-generating winds reaching 60% of current values. The results therefore show the importance of improving convection in climate models for dust projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neuromorphic spintronics

Neuromorphic computing uses brain-inspired principles to design circuits that can perform computational tasks with superior power efficiency to conventional computers. Approaches that use traditional electronic devices to create artificial neurons and synapses are, however, currently limited by the energy and area requirements of these components. Spintronic nanodevices, which exploit both the magnetic and electrical properties of electrons, can increase the energy efficiency and decrease the area of these circuits, and magnetic tunnel junctions are of particular interest as neuromorphic computing elements because they are compatible with standard integrated circuits and can support multiple functionalities. Here, we review the development of spintronic devices for neuromorphic computing. We examine how magnetic tunnel junctions can serve as synapses and neurons, and how magnetic textures, such as domain walls and skyrmions, can function as neurons. We also explore spintronics-based implementations of neuromorphic computing tasks, such as pattern recognition in an associative memory, and discuss the challenges that exist in scaling up these systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phylogenetic distribution and experimental characterization of corrinoid production and dependence in soil bacterial isolates

Abstract Soil microbial communities impact carbon sequestration and release, biogeochemical cycling, and agricultural yields. These global effects rely on metabolic interactions that modulate community composition and function. However, the physicochemical and taxonomic complexity of soil and the scarcity of available isolates for phenotypic testing are significant barriers to studying soil microbial interactions. Corrinoids—the vitamin B12 family of cofactors—are critical for microbial metabolism, yet they are synthesized by only a subset of microbiome members. Here, we evaluated corrinoid production and dependence in soil bacteria as a model to investigate the ecological roles of microorganisms involved in metabolic interactions. We isolated and characterized a taxonomically diverse collection of 161 soil bacteria from a single study site. Most corrinoid-dependent bacteria in the collection prefer B12 over other corrinoids, while all tested producers synthesize B12, indicating metabolic compatibility between producers and dependents in the collection. Furthermore, a subset of producers release B12 at levels sufficient to support dependent isolates in laboratory culture at estimated ratios of up to 1000 dependents per producer. Within our isolate collection, we did not find strong phylogenetic patterns in corrinoid production or dependence. Upon investigating trends in the phylogenetic dispersion of corrinoid metabolism categories across sequenced bacteria from various environments, we found that these traits are conserved in 47 out of 85 genera. Together, these phenotypic and genomic results provide evidence for corrinoid-based metabolic interactions among bacteria and provide a framework for the study of nutrient-sharing ecological interactions in microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planar Hall Driven Torque in a Ferromagnet/Nonmagnet/Ferromagnet System

An important goal of spintronics is to covert a charge current into a spin current with a controlled spin polarization that can exert torques on an adjacent magnetic layer. Here we demonstrate such torques in a two ferromagnet system. A CoNi multilayer is used as a spin current source in a sample with structure CoNi/Au/CoFeB. Spin torque ferromagnetic resonance is used to measure the torque on the CoFeB layer. The response as a function of the applied field angle and current is consistent with the symmetry expected for a torque produced by the planar Hall effect originating in CoNi. We find the strength of this effect to be comparable to that of the spin Hall effect in platinum, indicating that the planar Hall effect holds potential as a spin current source with a controllable polarization direction.

ferromagnetic resonance↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts of Hurricane Irma (2017) through the Assimilation of All-Sky Infrared Brightness Temperatures

The assimilation of satellite all-sky infrared (IR) brightness temperatures (BTs) has been shown in previous studies to improve intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones. Here, in this study, we examine whether assimilating all-sky IR BTs can also potentially improve tropical cyclogenesis forecasts by improving the pregenesis cloud and moisture fields. By using an ensemble-based data assimilation system, we show that the assimilation of upper-tropospheric water vapor channel BTs observed by the Meteosat-10 SEVIRI instrument two days before the formation of a tropical depression improves the genesis forecast of Hurricane Irma (2017), a classic Cape Verde storm, by up to 24 h while also capturing its later rapid intensification in deterministic forecasts. In an experiment that withholds the assimilation of all-sky IR BTs, the assimilation of conventional observations from the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) leads to the premature genesis of Hurricane Irma by at least 24 h. This premature genesis is shown to result from an overestimation of the spatial coverage of deep convection within the African easterly wave (AEW) from which Irma eventually forms. The gross overestimation of deep convection without all-sky IR BTs is accompanied by higher column saturation fraction, stronger low-level convergence, and the earlier spinup of a low-level meso- β -scale vortex within the AEW that ultimately becomes Hurricane Irma. Through its adjustment to the initial moisture and cloud conditions, the assimilation of all-sky IR BTs leads to a more realistic convective evolution in forecasts and ultimately a more realistic timing of genesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical methods for design and testing of 3D-printed polymers

Different statistical methods are used in various fields to qualify processes and products, especially in emerging technologies like Additive Manufacturing (AM) or 3D printing. Since several statistical methods are being employed to ensure quality production of the 3D-printed parts, an overview of these methods used in 3D printing for different purposes is presented in this paper. The advantages and challenges, to understanding the importance it brings for design and testing optimization of 3D-printed parts are also discussed. The application of different metrology methods is also summarized to guide future researchers in producing dimensionally-accurate and good-quality 3D-printed parts. Here, this review paper shows that the Taguchi Methodology is the commonly-used statistical tool in optimizing mechanical properties of the 3D-printed parts, followed by Weibull Analysis and Factorial Design. In addition, key areas such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Finite Element Analysis (FEA), and Simulation require more research for improved 3D-printed part qualities for specific purposes. Future perspectives are also discussed, including other methods that can help further improve the overall quality of the 3D printing process from designing to manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Local Weather Station Design and Development for Cost-Effective Environmental Monitoring and Real-Time Data Sharing

Current weather monitoring systems often remain out of reach for small-scale users and local communities due to their high costs and complexity. This paper addresses this significant issue by introducing a cost-effective, easy-to-use local weather station. Utilizing low-cost sensors, this weather station is a pivotal tool in making environmental monitoring more accessible and user-friendly, particularly for those with limited resources. It offers efficient in-site measurements of various environmental parameters, such as temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, carbon dioxide concentration, and particulate matter, including PM 1, PM 2.5, and PM 10. The findings demonstrate the station’s capability to monitor these variables remotely and provide forecasts with a high degree of accuracy, displaying an error margin of just 0.67%. Furthermore, the station’s use of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model enables short-term, reliable forecasts crucial for applications in agriculture, transportation, and air quality monitoring. Furthermore, the weather station’s open-source nature significantly enhances environmental monitoring accessibility for smaller users and encourages broader public data sharing. With this approach, crucial in addressing climate change challenges, the station empowers communities to make informed decisions based on real-time data. In designing and developing this low-cost, efficient monitoring system, this work provides a valuable blueprint for future advancements in environmental technologies, emphasizing sustainability. The proposed automatic weather station not only offers an economical solution for environmental monitoring but also features a user-friendly interface for seamless data communication between the sensor platform and end users. This system ensures the transmission of data through various web-based platforms, catering to users with diverse technical backgrounds. Furthermore, by leveraging historical data through the ARIMA model, the station enhances its utility in providing short-term forecasts and supporting critical decision-making processes across different sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗