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At least 613 records · Page 34

Estimation of the probability of error without ground truth and known a priori probabilities

The probability of error or, alternatively, the probability of correct classification (PCC) is an important criterion in analyzing the performance of a classifier. Labeled samples (those with ground truth) are usually employed to evaluate the performance of a classifier. Occasionally, the numbers of labeled samples are inadequate, or no labeled samples are available to evaluate a classifier's performance; for example, when crop signatures from one area from which ground truth is available are used to classify another area from which no ground truth is available. This paper reports the results of an experiment to estimate the probability of error using unlabeled test samples (i.e., without the aid of ground truth).

Havens, K. A.↗

Sodium in weak G-band giants

Sodium abundances have been determined for eight weak G-band giants whose atmospheres are greatly enriched with products of the CN-cycling H-burning reactions. Systematic errors are minimized by comparing the weak G-band giants to a sample of similar but normal giants. If, further, Ca is selected as a reference element, model atmosphere-related errors should largely be removed. For the weak-G-band stars (Na/Ca) = 0.16 +/- 0.01, which is just possibly greater than the result (Na/Ca) = 0.10 /- 0.03 from the normal giants. This result demonstrates that the atmospheres of the weak G-band giants are not seriously contaminated with products of ON cycling.

Drake, Jeremy J.↗

The clustering of the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey quasar sample: testing observational systematics on the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurement

ABSTRACT Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) are considered to be a very robust standard ruler against various systematics. This premise has been tested against observational systematics, but not to the level required for the next generation of galaxy surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and Euclid. In this paper, we investigate the effect of observational systematics on the BAO measurement of the final sample of quasars from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 16 in order to prepare and hone a similar analysis for upcoming surveys. We employ catalogues with various treatments of imaging systematic effects using linear and neural network-based non-linear approaches and consider how the BAO measurement changes. We also test how the variations to the BAO fitting model respond to the observational systematics. As expected, we confirm that the BAO measurements obtained from the DR16 quasar sample are robust against imaging systematics well within the statistical error, while reporting slightly modified constraints that shift the line-of-sight BAO signal by less than 1.1 per cent. We use realistic simulations with similar redshift and angular distributions as the DR16 sample to conduct statistical tests for validating the pipeline, quantifying the significance of differences, and estimating the expected bias on the BAO scale in future high-precision data sets. Although we find a marginal impact for the eBOSS QSO data, the work presented here is of vital importance for constraining the nature of dark energy with the BAO feature in the new era of big data cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Systematic and statistical uncertainties of the hilbert-transform based high-precision FID frequency extraction method

Pulsed nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is widely used in high-precision magnetic field measurements. The absolute value of the magnetic field is determined from the precession frequency of nuclear magnetic moments. The Hilbert transform is widely used to extract the phase function from the observed free induction decay (FID) signal and then its frequency. In this paper, a detailed implementation of a Hilbert-transform based FID frequency extraction method is described. How artifacts and noise level in the FID signal affect the extracted phase function are derived analytically. A method of mitigating the artifacts in the extracted phase function of an FID is discussed. Correlations between noises of the phase function samples are studied for different noise spectra. We discovered that the error covariance matrix for the extracted phase function is nearly singular and improper for constructing the $\chi^2$ used in the fitting routine. A down-sampling method for fixing the singular covariance matrix has been developed, so that the minimum $\chi^2$-fit yields properly the statistical uncertainty of the extracted frequency. Other practical methods of obtaining the statistical uncertainty are also discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Satellite Infrared Technique for Diurnal Rainfall Variability Studies

Reliable information on the distribution of precipitation at high temporal resolution (<l hour) is essential for understanding the characteristics of convection in a region. Cloud-top infrared (IR) brightness temperatures from geostationary platforms have a weak physical connection to precipitation, however, their high sampling frequency makes them attractive in studying the temporal evolution of cloudiness and convection. On the other hand, microwave-based (MW) observations from lower sampling-frequency polar-orbiting platforms can provide a better physical connection to precipitating hydrometeors. A recent invention in rainfall estimation from a combination of these two sensors involves adjustment of IR estimates using co-existing MW-based precipitation data on a monthly basis. These techniques use the MW data to remove systematic errors in IR rain estimates, while retaining the high sampling frequency of IR observations (approximately every 15-30 minutes). Perhaps of even greater importance to climate and hydrometeorological applications is the separation of mesoscale convective systems into a portion of rain associated with deep convection (hereafter called convective precipitation), and to precipitation falling from more widespread anvil clouds. This current work focuses on estimation of tropical convective and stratiform rainfall. We attempt to answer fundamental questions, such as : is estimation of convective and stratiform precipitation from IR feasible? If so, how accurate can this be? What is the scale dependence of the IR algorithm's performance? To address these questions, quantitative comparisons are performed between coincident IR- and MW-based instantaneous rainfall estimates at the MW 85 Ghz resolution (-12.5 km). Our data set spans a three-month period (January to March, 1996) of MW and IR observations over northern South America (15N-15S and 35W-80W), which includes the Amazon river basin.

Anagnostou, Emmanouil↗

Radio metric errors due to mismatch and offset between a DSN antenna beam and the beam of a troposphere calibration instrument

Two components of the error of a troposphere calibration measurement were quantified by theoretical calculations. The first component is a beam mismatch error, which occurs when the calibration instrument senses a conical volume different from the cylindrical volume sampled by a Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna. The second component is a beam offset error, which occurs if the calibration instrument is not mounted on the axis of the DSN antenna. These two error sources were calculated for both delay (e.g., VLBI) and delay rate (e.g., Doppler) measurements. The beam mismatch error for both delay and delay rate drops rapidly as the beamwidth of the troposphere calibration instrument (e.g., a water vapor radiometer or an infrared Fourier transform spectrometer) is reduced. At a 10-deg elevation angle, the instantaneous beam mismatch error is 1.0 mm for a 6-deg beamwidth and 0.09 mm for a 0.5-deg beam (these are the full angular widths of a circular beam with uniform gain out to a sharp cutoff). Time averaging for 60-100 sec will reduce these errors by factors of 1.2-2.2. At a 20-deg elevation angle, the lower limit for current Doppler observations, the beam-mismatch delay rate error is an Allan standard deviation over 100 sec of 1.1 x 10(exp -14) with a 4-deg beam and 1.3 x 10(exp -l5) for a 0.5-deg beam. A 50-m beam offset would result in a fairly modest (compared to other expected error sources) delay error (less than or equal to 0.3 mm for 60-sec integrations at any elevation angle is greater than or equal to 6 deg). However, the same offset would cause a large error in delay rate measurements (e.g., an Allan standard deviation of 1.2 x 10(exp -14) over 100 sec at a 20-deg elevation angle), which would dominate over other known error sources if the beamwidth is 2 deg or smaller. An on-axis location is essential for accurate troposphere calibration of delay rate measurements. A half-power beamwidth (for a beam with a tapered gain profile) of 1.2 deg or smaller is desired for calibration of all types of radio metrics. A water-vapor radiometer calibration beam of this size with very low sidelobes would require a clear aperture antenna with a diameter of at least 1.5 m if the primary water vapor sensing channel were in the 20-22 GHz range.

R P Linfield↗

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

Binary pseudorandom array test standard optimized for characterization of large field-of-view optical interferometers

Recently, a technique for calibrating the modulation transfer function (MTF) of a broad variety of metrology instrumentation has been demonstrated. This technique is based on test samples structured as one-dimensional binary pseudo-random (BPR) sequences and two-dimensional BPR arrays (BPRAs). The inherent power spectral density of BPR gratings (sequences) and arrays has a deterministic white-noise-like character that allows direct determination of the MTF with uniform sensitivity over the entire spatial frequency range and field-of-view of an instrument. As such, the BPR samples satisfy the characteristics of a test standard: functionality, ease of specification and fabrication, reproducibility, and low sensitivity to manufacturing error. Here we discuss our recent developments directed to the optimization of the sample design, fabrication, application, and data processing procedures, suitable for thorough characterization of large aperture optical interferometers. Compared with the previous coded-aperture based design, the improved, 'highly randomized' BPRA pattern of the new test standard provides better accuracy and reliability of instrument MTF and aberration characterization, and enables operation optimization of large aperture optical interferometers. We describe the pattern generation algorithm and tests to verify the compliance to desired BPRA topography. The data acquisition and analysis procedures for different applications of the technique are also discussed.

Yashchuk, Valeriy V.↗

Satellite laser ranging - Current status and future prospects

The characteristics and capabilities of instruments and operational techniques in the field of satellite laser ranging (SLR) are discussed. Following a brief introduction to the basic concept of SLR, a developmental history of each of the major components of an SLR hardware is given, including the laser transmitter, photomultiplier, discriminator, and time interval unit. The sources of range error in each of the devices are examined, and techniques for reducing error are described. A description of current SLR hardware is summarized using samples of actual satellite data obtained in 1981, which show that orbital fits with a 1.5 single shot rms and normal point rms error of less than 3 mm with 1-6 percent data entering. The development of even more precise measurement techniques in the future with the advent of the Starlette and LAGEOS II SLR system is also discussed.

Degnan, J. J.↗

Portable Dew Point Mass Spectrometry System for Real-Time Gas and Moisture Analysis

A portable instrument incorporates both mass spectrometry and dew point measurement to provide real-time, quantitative gas measurements of helium, nitrogen, oxygen, argon, and carbon dioxide, along with real-time, quantitative moisture analysis. The Portable Dew Point Mass Spectrometry (PDP-MS) system comprises a single quadrupole mass spectrometer and a high vacuum system consisting of a turbopump and a diaphragm-backing pump. A capacitive membrane dew point sensor was placed upstream of the MS, but still within the pressure-flow control pneumatic region. Pressure-flow control was achieved with an upstream precision metering valve, a capacitance diaphragm gauge, and a downstream mass flow controller. User configurable LabVIEW software was developed to provide real-time concentration data for the MS, dew point monitor, and sample delivery system pressure control, pressure and flow monitoring, and recording. The system has been designed to include in situ, NIST-traceable calibration. Certain sample tubing retains sufficient water that even if the sample is dry, the sample tube will desorb water to an amount resulting in moisture concentration errors up to 500 ppm for as long as 10 minutes. It was determined that Bev-A-Line IV was the best sample line to use. As a result of this issue, it is prudent to add a high-level humidity sensor to PDP-MS so such events can be prevented in the future.

Arkin, C.↗

Apparatus for microbiological sampling

An automatic apparatus is described for microbiologically sampling surface using a cotton swab which eliminates human error. The apparatus includes a self-powered transport device, such as a motor-driven wheeled cart, which mounts a swabbing motor drive for a crank arm which supports a swab in the free end thereof. The swabbing motor is pivotably mounted and an actuator rod movable responsive to the cart traveling a predetermined distance provides lifting of the swab from the surface being sampled and reversal of the direction of travel of the cart.

Wilkins, J. R.↗

Correlations of galaxies at z = 0.3

The angular correlation functions for galaxies with magnitudes 20 less than b(sub J) less than 21.5 and 21 less than b(sub J) less than 22.5 are measured from photographic images of nine distinct fields. New expressions for the variance of correlation function estimates are used, which show that the nine fields are consistent with a single angular correlation function w(theta) and with previous estimates of its amplitude and slope -- though the errors on previously published w(theta) values are probably underestimated. Assuming a spatial correlation function of the form xi(r,z) = (r/r(sub 0))(exp -gamma)(1 + z)(exp -3-epsilon), and using the measured N(z) for these magnitude ranges, we derive xi(r = 250 kpc/h, z = 0.18) = 48 +/- 10, and xi(r = 250 kpc/h, z = 0.27) = 55(+11; -9) for galaxies in these samples, largely independent of gamma and epsilon (1 sigma errors). This is approximately 2 times lower than the small-scale clustering seen in nearby galaxies at b(sub J) less than 18 (after allowing for modest growth in clustering since z = 0.27), yet very similar to the clustering of the nearby IRAS-selected galaxy population. The correlations of the reddest third of the b(sub J) approximately 22 galaxies, however, are larger and consistent with the b(sub J) less than 18 clustering, not the IRAS clustering, for a clustering growth rate of epsilon equal to or greater than -1. Thus to b(sub J) less than 22.5, most of the apparent evolution in clustering of blue-selected galaxies appears to be due to an increasing fraction of late-type or star-forming galaxies at fainter magnitudes, combined with weaker small-scale clustering for late types. These conclusions are entirely empirical and independent of galaxy evolution models.

Bernstein, G. M.↗

Neptunium transition probabilities estimated through laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) measurements

in tis report calibration free–laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (CF-LIBS) approaches are promising for the analysis of radioactive materials; however, a lack of reported fundamental properties for these materials is an obstacle to implementation. Spectra of laser induced plasmas containing Np and Sr, along with Saha–Boltzmann methods, were used to estimate the first reported transition probabilities (TPs) of Np. These TPs enabled the first attempt at CF-LIBS analysis of radioactive samples to predict Np/Sr ratios with a mean error of 3.86%. The presented methodology of TP estimation will be applied to the study of other actinides and allow broader applications of CF-15 LIBS in the nuclear field.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

BEYONDPLANCK II. CMB mapmaking through Gibbs sampling

We present a Gibbs sampling solution to the mapmaking problem for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements that builds on existing destriping methodology. Gibbs sampling breaks the computationally heavy destriping problem into two separate steps: noise filtering and map binning. Considered as two separate steps, both are computationally much cheaper than solving the combined problem. This provides a huge performance benefit as compared to traditional methods and it allows us, for the first time, to bring the destriping baseline length to a single sample. Here, we applied the Gibbs procedure to simulated Planck 30 GHz data. We find that gaps in the time-ordered data are handled efficiently by filling them in with simulated noise as part of the Gibbs process. The Gibbs procedure yields a chain of map samples, from which we are able to compute the posterior mean as a best-estimate map. The variation in the chain provides information on the correlated residual noise, without the need to construct a full noise covariance matrix. However, if only a single maximum-likelihood frequency map estimate is required, we find that traditional conjugate gradient solvers converge much faster than a Gibbs sampler in terms of the total number of iterations. The conceptual advantages of the Gibbs sampling approach lies in statistically well-defined error propagation and systematic error correction. This methodology thus forms the conceptual basis for the mapmaking algorithm employed in the BEYONDPLANCK framework, which implements the first end-to-end Bayesian analysis pipeline for CMB observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Beginner's Guide to Power and Energy Measurement and Estimation for Computing and Machine Learning

Concerns about the environmental footprint of machine learning are increasing. While studies of energy use and emissions of ML models are a growing subfield, most ML researchers and developers still do not incorporate energy measurement as part of their work practices. While measuring energy is a crucial step towards reducing carbon footprint, it is also not straightforward. This paper introduces the main considerations necessary for making sound use of energy measurement tools and interpreting energy estimates, including the use of at-the-wall versus on-device measurements, sampling strategies and best practices, common sources of error, and proxy measures. It also contains practical tips and real-world scenarios that illustrate how these considerations come into play. It concludes with a call to action for improving the state of the art of measurement methods and standards for facilitating robust comparisons between diverse hardware and software environments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multimegabit Operation Multiplexer System

The Multimegabit Operation Multiplexer System (MOMS) is a high-data-rate PCM telemetry unit capable of sampling and encoding 60 scanning radiometer and four vidicon channels at 250 kilosamples/second and 5 megasamples/second, respectively. This sampling capacity plus the seven-bit quantization requires a total throughput rate of 40 megasamples/second and 280 megabits/second. To produce these rates efficiently, the system was divided into a pair of identical 140-megabit blocks. A low-power 20-MHz analog multiplexer and analog-to-digital converter were developed together with a video sample-and-hold that features an aperture time error of less than 50 psec. Breadboard testing of these basic building blocks confirmed the design prediction that the total system would consume 27 watts of power. Two 140-megabit output parts are suitable for quadriphase modulation.

Giri, R. R.↗

Voice encoding for the Space Shuttle using adaptive delta modulation

The paper describes the SONG and modified ABATE adaptive delta modulation algorithms for voice encoding. Waveforms of the response of the delta modulators to channel errors are given, and performance data which show the relationship between channel errors and word intelligibility are provided. An analytic derivation yielding a comparison between PCM and adaptive delta modulation with respect to channel errors is given. The Space Shuttle is employing the modified-ABATE device because it can tolerate a high error rate and operates at a relatively low sampling rate.

Schilling, D. L.↗

Sources of variation in Landsat autocorrelation

Analysis of sixty-four scan lines representing diverse conditions across satellites, channels, scanners, locations and cloud cover confirms that Landsat data are autocorrelated and consistently follow an Arima (1,0,1) pattern. The AR parameter varies significantly with location and the MA coefficient with cloud cover. Maximum likelihood classification functions are considerably in error unless this autocorrelation is compensated for in sampling.

Craig, R. G.↗