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At least 613 records · Page 34

Best Practices for Shielding Analyses of Activated Metals and Spent Resins from Reactor Operation

This report investigated best practices for performing shielding evaluations of Type B waste packages, as defined in 10 CFR Part 71 regulations on packaging and transportation of radioactive material, or packages for which the contents are not defined before loading and may include a broad range of nuclides, geometries, and non-fuel materials. The following non-fuel waste streams were analyzed: Activated metals from decommissioned commercial power reactors, including Type 304 stainless steel, reactor vessel steel, and Inconel, Control blades from boiling water reactors, Neutron-activated corrosion products on surfaces of activated metals, and Spent resins from power plant operations. Measured elemental compositions, including major constituents and impurities, for steel and Inconel samples from commercial power reactors were used in activation calculations to determine radionuclide inventories in activated metals. For a simplified cask model, 60 Co contribution to the total external package dose rate at 30 days after shutdown varied from approximately 60% to 95%, depending on the activated metal, initial cobalt impurity concentration in the metal, and the thickness of the overpack gamma shield. Its maximum contribution to the total external package dose rate of approximately 100% was reached within the time interval of 2 to 5 years after shutdown and was maintained for up to 45 to 60 years after shutdown, depending on material, initial cobalt impurity concentration, and shield thickness. Thereafter, the 60 Co contribution to external package dose rate decreased with increasing decay time. Cobalt-60 is primarily produced by neutron reactions with the cobalt impurity in steel and Inconel. Other important radionuclides in activated metals contributing to package external dose rate are radionuclides with relatively short decay times, including 51 Cr, 59 Fe, 58 Co, and 54 Mn. These radionuclides may be represented as an equivalent 60 Co activity/source because 60 Co gamma ray emissions are bounding in terms of source strength and energy to other important radionuclides identified in the analyzed activated metals. Approaches for modeling the neutron-activated corrosion products that may be attached to activated reactor components were analyzed in this report. It was demonstrated that a surface source is more conservative than a uniform volumetric source for the treatment of neutron-activated corrosion products with respect to external package dose rates. An analysis of the maximum radionuclide loadings reported on spent resins identified the radionuclides 137 Cs, 60 Co, 134 Cs, 65 Zn, and 58 Co as the primary contributors to external package dose rate. For a resin cooled for 3.08 years, the external package dose rate was entirely produced by the reported 137 Cs and 60 Co inventory. The neutron sources from actinides found on spent resins or activated metals produced negligible dose rates and may be ignored in dose rate analyses. Effects of idealized waste material, source geometry, and spatial material/source distributions on external package dose rates were determined based on dose rate results for a simplified cask model under normal conditions of transport. Type 304 stainless steel, zirconium, and aluminum with adjusted mass densities based on a maximum content weight were analyzed for material modeling effects on external package dose rate. These materials produced identical external package dose rates within the statistical uncertainties of the dose rate estimates. Among four different source geometry configurations with homogeneous material of different mass densities, uniform volumetric source distribution, and the same source strength, the geometry configuration with lowest mass density (i.e., minimum self-shielding effect among the four cases) was most conservative. Spatial source distributions that better represent localized peak 60 Co activity values were more conservative than a uniform volumetric source distribution, assuming the same weight and total source strength per package. The increase in external dose rate caused by localized source peaks can be as much as the ratio between source peak activity density to average activity density, depending on the location of the activated metal with peak activity density. Therefore, the shielding analysis may be simplified if localized peak activities and the average activity per package can be measured/determined and documented at the time of cask loading. For simplicity, external package dose rates may be determined based on average source activity and a uniform volumetric source distribution. The dose rate results from that calculation model multiplied by the ratio of peak activity density to average activity density will produce maximum dose rate values for conservative estimates.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Photochemistry of N2(+) in the daytime F region

The photochemistry of N2(+) in the daytime F region continues to be a source of concern due primarily to the uncertain roles of the metastable O+(2D) ion and possible vibrational excitation. This investigation adopts a unique subset of data from the Atmospheric Explorer C satellite that spans distinct regions near the low-latitude F peak wherein either chemical reactions or electron processes alternatively control the N2(+) abundances. Concentrations of N2(+) calculated according to current theory and including recent laboratory data for O+(2D) losses via N2 are found to exceed ionospheric observations between 220 and 400 km by a factor near 2. Relevant characteristics of the basic molecular ion concentration measurements are described, along with an analysis for select orbits conducted according to current photochemical equilibrium theory. Possible simple modifications of this theory are discussed in terms of the constraints suggested by the nature of the observations.

Breig, E. L.↗

A parameterization for the shortwave transmissivity of stratiform water clouds based on empirical data and radiative transfer theory

Surface measurements of solar flux and total integrated liquid-water content, radiosonde data, and infrared satellite images are analyzed in conjunction with radiative transfer calculations to derive an empirical parameterization for the shortwave transmissivity of continental stratiform water clouds. The data were collected near Denver, Colorado, over a period of six years. A multiple reflection radiative transfer model is employed to estimate stratus cloud transmissivity in terms of the measurable liquid-water path (LWP). A nonlinear fit of estimated transmissivities to the corresponding observations of LWP yields close agreement with a previous, more complicated parameterization. The derived expression for cloud transmissivity is used to predict mean daily surface fluxes for 61 days during which periods of stratiform clouds were observed over the Denver area. A comparison between predicted and measured fluxes shows agreement to within + or - 4 percent, with best agreement for clouds of moderate optical thickness. Potential sources of error are identified with sensitivity studies.

Derr, V. E.↗

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.

degradation↗

The Role of Convection in Redistributing Formaldehyde to the Upper Troposphere Over North America and the North Atlantic during the Summer 2004 INTEX Campaign

Measurements of CH2O from a tunable diode laser absorption spectrometer (TDLAS) were acquired onboard the NASA DC-8 during the summer 2004 INTEX-NA (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment - North America) campaign to test our understanding of convection and production mechanisms in the upper troposphere (UT, 6-12-km) over continental North America and the North Atlantic Ocean. Point-by-point comparisons with box model calculations, when MHP (CH3OOH) measurements were available for model constraint, resulted in a median CH2O measurement/model ratio of 0.91 in the UT. Multiple tracers were used to arrive at a set of UT CH2O background and perturbed air mass periods, and 46% of the TDLAS measurements fell within the latter category. At least 66% to 73% of these elevated UT observations were caused by enhanced production from CH2O precursors rather than direct transport of CH2O from the boundary layer. This distinction is important, since the effects from the former can last for over a week or more compared to one day or less in the case of convective transport of CH2O itself. In general, production of CH2O from CH4 was found to be the dominant source term, even in perturbed air masses. This was followed by production from MHP, methanol, PAN type compounds, and ketones, in descending order of their contribution. In the presence of elevated NO from lightning and potentially from the stratosphere, there was a definite trend in the CH2O discrepancy, which for the highest NO mixing ratios produced a median CH2O measurement/model ratio of 3.9 in the 10-12-km range. Discrepancies in CH2O and HO2 in the UT with NO were highly correlated and this provided further information as to the possible mechanism(s) responsible. These discrepancies with NO are consistent with additional production sources of both gases involving CH3O2 + NO reactions, most likely caused by unmeasured hydrocarbons.

Fried, Alan↗

A new method of presentation the large-scale magnetic field structure on the Sun and solar corona

The large-scale photospheric magnetic field, measured at Stanford, has been analyzed in terms of surface harmonics. Changes of the photospheric field which occur within whole solar rotation period can be resolved by this analysis. For this reason we used daily magnetograms of the line-of-sight magnetic field component observed from Earth over solar disc. We have estimated the period during which day-to-day full disc magnetograms must be collected. An original algorithm was applied to resolve time variations of spherical harmonics that reflect time evolution of large-scale magnetic field within solar rotation period. This method of magnetic field presentation can be useful enough in lack of direct magnetograph observations due to sometimes bad weather conditions. We have used the calculated surface harmonics to reconstruct the large-scale magnetic field structure on the source surface near the sun - the origin of heliospheric current sheet and solar wind streams. The obtained results have been compared with spacecraft in situ observations and geomagnetic activity. We tried to show that proposed technique can trace shon-time variations of heliospheric current sheet and short-lived solar wind streams. We have compared also our results with those obtained traditionally from potential field approximation and extrapolation using synoptic charts as initial boundary conditions.

Ponyavin, D. I.↗

A Model for the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind

Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: The slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates from the continuous opening and closing of flux at the boundary between open and closed field. On the other hand, the slow wind has large angular width, up to approximately 60 degrees, suggesting that its source extends far from the open-closed boundary. We propose a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We compute analytically the topology of an open-field corridor and show that it produces a quasi-separatrix layer in the heliosphere that extends to angles far front the heliospheric current sheet. We then use an MHD code and MIDI/SOHO observations of the photospheric magnetic field to calculate numerically, with high spatial resolution, the quasi-steady solar wind and magnetic field for a time period preceding the August 1, 2008 total solar eclipse. Our numerical results imply that, at least for this time period, a web of separatrices (which we term an S-web) forms with sufficient density and extent in the heliosphere to account for the observed properties of the slow wind. We discuss the implications of our S-web model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere, and propose further tests of the model.

Antiochos, Spiro K.↗

A Model fot the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind

Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates from the continuous opening and closing of flux at the boundary between open and closed field. On the other hand, the slow wind also has large angular width, up to approx.60deg, suggesting that its source extends far from the open-closed boundary. We propose a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We compute analytically the topology of an open-field corridor and show that it produces a quasi-separatrix layer in the heliosphere that extends to angles far from the heliospheric current sheet. We then use an MHD code and MDI/SOHO observations of the photospheric magnetic field to calculate numerically, with high spatial resolution, the quasi-steady solar wind, and magnetic field for a time period preceding the 2008 August 1 total solar eclipse. Our numerical results imply that, at least for this time period, a web of separatrices (which we term an S-web) forms with sufficient density and extent in the heliosphere to account for the observed properties of the slow wind. We discuss the implications of our S-web model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere and propose further tests of the model. Key words: solar wind - Sun: corona - Sun: magnetic topology

Antiochos, S. K.↗

Novel estimation of aerosol processes with particle size distribution measurements: a case study with the TOMAS algorithm v1.0.0

Atmospheric aerosol microphysical processes are a significant source of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Specifically, aerosol nucleation, emissions, and growth rates, which are simulated in chemical transport models to predict the particle size distribution, are not understood well. However, long-term size distribution measurements made at several ground-based sites across Europe implicitly contain information about the processes that created those size distributions. This work aims to extract that information by developing and applying an inverse technique to constrain aerosol emissions as well as nucleation and growth rates based on hourly size distribution measurements. We developed an inverse method based upon process control theory into an online estimation technique to scale aerosol nucleation, emissions, and growth so that the model–measurement bias in three measured aerosol properties exponentially decays. The properties, which are calculated from the measured and predicted size distributions, used to constrain aerosol nucleation, emission, and growth rates are the number of particles with a diameter between 3 and 6 nm, the number with a diameter greater than 10 nm, and the total dry volume of aerosol ( N 3–6 , N 10 , V dry ), respectively. In this paper, we focus on developing and applying the estimation methodology in a zero-dimensional “box” model as a proof of concept before applying it to a three-dimensional simulation in subsequent work. The methodology is first tested on a dataset of synthetic and perfect measurements that span diverse environments in which the true particle emissions, growth, and nucleation rates are known. The inverse technique accurately estimates the aerosol microphysical process rates with an average and maximum error of 2 % and 13 %, respectively. Next, we investigate the effect that measurement noise has on the estimated rates. The method is robust to typical instrument noise in the aerosol properties as there is a negligible increase in the bias of the estimated process rates. Finally, the methodology is applied to long-term datasets of in situ size distribution measurements in western Europe from May 2006 through June 2007. At Melpitz, Germany, and Hyytiälä, Finland, the average diurnal profiles of estimated 3 nm particle formation rates are reasonable, having peaks near noon local time with average peak values of 1 and 0.15 cm –3 s –1 , respectively. The normalized absolute error in estimated N 3–6 , N 10 , and V dry at three European measurement sites is less than 15 %, showing that the estimation framework developed here has potential to decrease model–measurement bias while constraining uncertain aerosol microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ground effects on aircraft noise for a wide-body commercial airplane

Ground effects on noise from a high-bypass ratio engined aircraft are investigated. A 747 is flown at altitudes from 30 to 960 m past a 20-microphone array, and ground effects are calculated from noise measurements as a function of elevation angle and slant range. Results are given in terms of EPNL units and are compared with previous results of a turbojet-powered T-38 and SAE-recommended empirical lateral attenuation prediction procedures. Theoretical predictions are made based on a method developed by Pao et al. (1978) and are compared with both 747 and T-38 results, demonstrating good agreement although a consistent underprediction of peak measured attenuation is observed. Measured ground effects are found largest at 200 Hz, and no definite shielding differences are apparent for a directivity angle of 122.5 deg. Less lateral attenuation of effective perceived noise is measured for both aircraft and is attributed to the dominance of low-frequency noise in the source spectrum.

Willshire, W. L., Jr.↗

Excitation rate coefficients and line ratios for the optical and ultraviolet transitions in S II

New calculations are reported for electron excitation collision strengths, rate coefficients, transition probabilities, and line ratios for the astrophysically important optical and UV lines in S II. The collision strengths are calculated in the close coupling approximation using the R-matrix method. The present calculations are more extensive than previous ones, including all transitions among the 12 lowest LS terms and the corresponding 28 fine-structure levels in the collisional-radiative model for S II. While the present rate coefficients for electron impact excitation are within 10-30 percent of the previous values for the low-lying optical transitions employed as density diagnostics of H II regions and nebulae, the excitation rates for the UV transitions 4S super 0 sub 3/2 - 4Psub 1/2,3/2,5/2 differ significantly from earlier calculations, by up to factor of 2. We describe temperature and density sensitive flux ratios for a number of UV lines. The present UV results are likely to be of interest in a more accurate interpretation of S II emission from the Io plasma torus in the magnetosphere of Jupiter, as well as other UV sources observed from the IUE, ASTRO 1, and the HST.

Cai, Wei↗

Effects of Spatial Resolution on the Simulated Dust Aerosol Lifecycle: Implications for Dust Event Magnitude and Timing in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

The NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric transport model simulates global aerosol distributions with an online aerosol module. GEOS-5 may be run at various horizontal spatial resolutions depending on the research application. For example, long integration climate simulations are typically run at 2 deg or 1 deg grid spacing, whereas aerosol reanalysis and forecasting applications may be performed at O.5 deg or 0.25 deg resolutions. In this study, we assess the implications of varying spatial resolution on the simulated aerosol fields, with a particular focus on dust. Dust emissions in GEOS-5 are calculated with one of two parameterizations, one based on the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GO CART) model and another based on the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model. Emission fluxes are parameterized in terms of the surface wind speed, either the 10-m (GO CART) or friction (DEAD) wind speed. We consider how surface wind speeds and thus the dust emission rates are a function of the model spatial resolution. We find that spatial resolution has a significant effect on the magnitude of dust emissions, as higher resolution versions of the model have typically higher surface wind speeds. Utilizing space-borne observations from MISR, MODIS, and CALIOP, we find that simulated Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) distributions respond differently to spatial resolution over the African and Asian source regions, highlighting the need to regional dust emission tuning. When compared to ground-based observations from AERONET, we found improved timing of dust events with as spatial resolution was increased. In an attempt to improve the representation of the dust aerosol lifecycle at coarse resolutions, we found that incorporating the effects of sub-grid wind variability in a course resolution simulation led to improved agreement with observed AOT magnitudes, but did not impact the timing of simulated dust events.

Nowottnick, E.↗

PVDeg: Development of a Streamlined Tool for PV Degradation Modeling

The photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 to 50 years. research efforts aim to achieve this while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades. This puts considerable pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. The tool will simplify many of the routine computational operations that are common to many degradation studies. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. This repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors.

degradation↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F1 Final Report

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F is a comparison of models and methods for post-closure performance assessment (PA) of a deep geologic repository for radioactive waste. The general aims of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for PA and to stimulate additional research and development in PA methodologies. The task objectives are to motivate development of PA modelling skills and capabilities, to examine the influence of model choices on calculated repository performance, and to compare the uncertainties introduced by model choices to other sources of uncertainty. Task F involves no actual experiment or site. It is a PA modelling exercise that requires the conceptual development of hypothetical repository designs and geologic settings. Because three of the teams were interested in salt and the rest of the teams were interested in crystalline rock, Task F was split into two branches: Task F1 for crystalline rock and Task F2 for salt. This report is for Task F1, crystalline rock. Teams from seven countries (Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and United States) participated in Task F1. The teams worked together to define the features, events, and processes of the reference case repository and established a set of performance measures. In addition, they defined a set of benchmark problems designed to test and compare modelling capabilities for fracture flow and transport at different scales. The repository design and benchmark problems are documented in a Task Specification that evolved over time as the group honed the specifications. The benchmark problems verified that each team can aptly model flow and transport in fractured media in 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensions. Two general approaches were used for the 3-dimensional benchmarks: discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM). DFN modelling involves explicit meshing of each fracture while ECPM modelling aims to capture the effective porosity and directional permeability of each cell in a space-filling mesh as affected by intersecting fractures. In some models, a combination of the two is used, i.e., DFN for large known fractures and ECPM for the rest of the domain. Transport is solved by using either the advection-dispersion equation or particle tracking. Although some variation is observed among model breakthrough curves in the benchmark problems, there is strong agreement in breakthrough behaviour up to at least the 75 th percentile for all benchmarks. At the 90 th percentile, breakthrough results show larger differences, suggesting several models retain substantially higher fractions of tracer in regions of slower moving water. In addition to the flow and transport benchmarks, several teams completed the source term benchmark, verifying capabilities for modelling radionuclide decay and ingrowth, waste package breach, instant release fractions, fuel matrix degradation rates, and radionuclide solubility limitations. The reference case is conceptualized as a generic spent fuel repository at a depth of 450 m in fractured crystalline rock. The repository has 50 parallel backfilled drifts, each with 50 deposition holes 6 m apart. Each deposition hole contains a 4-PWR waste package and bentonite buffer. The rock domain is 5 km in length, 2 km in width, and 1 km in depth. It has 6 deterministic fractured deformation zones and a multitude of stochastic fractures. Teams generally used the ECPM approach for the entire rock or a hybrid approach in which the deterministic fracture zones are modelled with a DFN and the rest of the rock is modelled by ECPM. Of the reference case problems specified, only the results of the initial reference case problem are compared in this report. The initial problem focuses on transport from the deposition holes to the surface, i.e., it neglects waste package performance. Tracers are released at all waste package locations at time zero and tracked for their releases to the near field and ground surface. The water fluxes calculated at the ground surface entry and exit regions of the domain are similar for all models except for two that have considerably lower fluxes. For tracer transport, large differences are observed among models in the magnitude of tracer transported. Much of the difference appears to be due to how the repository is implemented and hence the different degrees of repository simplification. Models that exclude the drifts, buffer, and backfill from the domain tend to show greater release of tracers and radionuclides from the repository. The initial study presented here indicates that major differences in modelling important processes within the repository (e.g., diffusion through buffer and backfill) can produce broadly different release and transport results, especially when those processes are excluded. Even for the models that included all specified features, events, and processes, the results show significant differences and demonstrate the importance of examining multiple modelling approaches in performance assessment. The differences in results observed in this study are expected to motivate teams to either increase complexity in future versions of the reference case models or to improve methods to account for the effects of simplified features and processes. Either way, future improvements in these models are expected to produce results that more closely agree.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Spectral evolution of microwaves and hard X-rays in the 1989 March 18 flare and its interpretation

We analyze the time variation of microwave spectra and hard X-ray spectra of 1989 March 18, which are obtained from the Solar Array at the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) and the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), respectively. From this observation, it is noted that the hard X-ray spectra gradually soften over 50 - 200 keV on-and-after the maximum phase while the microwaves at 1 - 15 GHz show neither a change in spectral shape nor as rapid a decay as hard X-rays. This leads to decoupling of hard X-rays from the microwaves in the decay phase away from their good correlation seen in the initial rise phase. To interpret this observation, we adopt a view that microwave-emitting particles and hard X-ray particles are physically separated in an inhomogeneous magnetic loop, but linked via interactions with the Whistler waves generated during flares. From this viewpoint, it is argued that the observed decoupling of microwaves from hard X-rays may be due to the different ability of each source region to maintain high energy electrons in response to the Whistler waves passing through the entire loop. To demonstrate this possibility, we solve a Fokker-Planck equation that describes evolution of electrons interacting with the Whistler waves, taking into account the variation of Fokker-Planck coefficients with physical quantities of the background medium. The numerical Fokker-Planck solutions are then used to calculate microwave spectra and hard X-ray spectra for agreement with observations. Our model results are as follows: in a sronger field region, the energy loss by electron escape due to scattering by the waves is greatly enhanced resulting in steep particle distributions that reproduce the observed hard X-ray spectra. In a region with weaker fields and lower density, this loss term is reduced allowing high energy electrons to survive longer so that microwaves can be emitted there in excess of hard X-rays during the decay phase of the flare. Our results based on spectral fitting of a flare event are discussed in comparison with previous studies of microwaves and hard X-rays based on either temporal or spatial information.

Lee, Jeongwoo W.↗

Spectral Characteristics of Wake Vortex Sound During Roll-Up

This report presents an analysis of the sound spectra generated by a trailing aircraft vortex during its rolling-up process. The study demonstrates that a rolling-up vortex could produce low frequency (less than 100 Hz) sound with very high intensity (60 dB above threshold of human hearing) at a distance of 200 ft from the vortex core. The spectrum then drops o rapidly thereafter. A rigorous analytical approach has been adopted in this report to derive the spectrum of vortex sound. First, the sound pressure was solved from an alternative treatment of the Lighthill s acoustic analogy approach [1]. After the application of Green s function for free space, a tensor analysis was applied to permit the removal of the source term singularity of the wave equation in the far field. Consequently, the sound pressure is expressed in terms of the retarded time that indicates the time history and spacial distribution of the sound source. The Fourier transformation is then applied to the sound pressure to compute its spectrum. As a result, the Fourier transformation greatly simplifies the expression of the vortex sound pressure involving the retarded time, so that the numerical computation is applicable with ease for axisymmetric line vortices during the rolling-up process. The vortex model assumes that the vortex circulation is proportional to the time and the core radius is a constant. In addition, the velocity profile is assumed to be self-similar along the aircraft flight path, so that a benchmark vortex velocity profile can be devised to obtain a closed form solution, which is then used to validate the numerical calculations for other more realistic vortex profiles for which no closed form solutions are available. The study suggests that acoustic sensors operating at low frequency band could be profitably deployed for detecting the vortex sound during the rolling-up process.

Booth, Earl R., Jr.↗

Role of Ocean Currents and Bottom Pressure Variability on Seasonal Polar Motion

Changes in the ocean angular momentum (OAM) components about the equatorial axes, either due to fluctuations in currents or bottom pressure (mass redistribution), can induce movements of the Earth's pole of rotation, commonly referred to as polar motion or wobble. Output from a 1 deg resolution ocean model is used to calculate the effective equatorial OAM functions chi(sub 1, sup O) and chi(sub 2, sup O), corresponding to polar motion excitation about the equatorial axis pointing to the Greenwich and 90 deg E meridians, respectively. Time series of chi(sup O) are combined with similar atmospheric series chi(sup A), computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses, to interpret the observed low-frequency polar motion excitation for the period 1985-1996. Results indicate that the oceans are a very important excitation source for the Chandler (approximately 433 days), annual, and semiannual wobbles, providing for much better amplitude and phase agreement with the observed excitation at these periods, in comparison with what is obtained when only the atmosphere is considered. Both oceanic mass and motion terms are found to be important but with mass signals having somewhat larger amplitudes. The role of regional variability in ocean currents and bottom pressure in contributing to chi(sup O) signals is quantified. Midlatitude regions (approximately 30 deg - 70 deg) figure prominently as places of strong local oceanic excitation signals. The North Pacific basin is found to be generally important for chi(sup O) excitation, while the Southern Ocean is important for both chi(sub 1, sup O) and chi(sub 2, sup O). The largest positive covariances of local with global chi(sup O) signals occur in the Kuroshio region near the western boundary of the North Pacific for chi(sub 1, sup O) and southwest of Australia for chi(sub 2, sup O).

Ponte, Rui M.↗

Geospatial Cluster Analysis of the State, Duration and Severity of Drought Over Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil

Droughts threaten water resources, agriculture, socio-economic activities and the population at the global and regional level, so identifying areas with homogeneous drought behaviors is an important consideration in improving the management of water resources. The objective of this study is to identify homogenous zones over Paraíba State in relation to the state, duration and severity of droughts that have occurred over the last 20 years (1998–2017) using hierarchical cluster analysis based on both gauge-measured and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimated rainfall data (TMPA 3B42). The drought series were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on eight time scales and were grouped according to drought state, duration and severity time series. The integrated results of state, duration and severity of droughts indicate that there is a basis for dividing Paraíba State into two major regions (a) Zone I, formed by Mata Paraibana and Agreste Paraibano, and (b) Zone II, composed by Borborema and Sertão Paraibano. This division is evident when assessing short-term droughts, but in the case of long-term droughts, Paraíba State has a high similarity in terms of drought state, duration, and severity. Factors such as proximity to the ocean, active climatic systems, and the local relief configuration were identified as influencing the drought regime. Finally, it is concluded that TMPA rainfall estimates represent a valuable source of data to regionalize and identify drought patterns over this part of Brazil and that other studies of this type should be carried out to monitor these phenomena based on other satellite-based rainfall data, including the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

SPI↗