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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-207A-05: Lung Surface Deformation Vector Fields Prediction by Monitoring Respiratory Surrogate Signals

Purpose: In this study, we developed and evaluated a method for predicting lung surface deformation vector fields (SDVFs) based on surrogate signals such as chest and abdomen motion at selected locations and spirometry measurements. Methods: A Patient-specific 3D triangular surface mesh of the lung region at end-expiration (EE) phase was obtained by threshold-based segmentation method. For each patient, a spirometer recorded the flow volume changes of the lungs; and 192 selected points at a regular spacing of 2cm X 2cm matrix points over a total area of 34cm X 24cm on the surface of chest and abdomen was used to detect chest wall motions. Preprocessing techniques such as QR factorization with column pivoting (QRCP) were employed to remove redundant observations of the chest and abdominal area. To create a statistical model between the lung surface and the corresponding surrogate signals, we developed a predictive model based on canonical ridge regression (CRR). Two unique weighting vectors were selected for each vertex on the surface of the lung, and they were optimized during the training process using the all other phases of 4D-CT except the end-inspiration (EI) phase. These parameters were employed to predict the vertices locations of a testing data set, which was the EI phase of 4D-CT. Results: For ten lung cancer patients, the deformation vector field of each vertex of lung surface mesh was estimated from the external motion at selected positions on the chest wall surface plus spirometry measurements. The average estimation of 98th percentile of error was less than 1 mm (AP= 0.85, RL= 0.61, and SI= 0.82). Conclusion: The developed predictive model provides a non-invasive approach to derive lung boundary condition. Together with personalized biomechanical respiration modelling, the proposed model can be used to derive the lung tumor motion during radiation therapy accurately from non-invasive measurements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Comprehensive Measurement and Analysis of the User-Perceived I/O Performance in a Production Leadership-Class Storage System

With the increase of the scale and intensity of the parallel I/O workloads generated by those scientific applications running on high performance computing facilities, understanding the I/O dynamics, especially the root cause of the I/O performance variability and degradation in HPC environment, have become extremely critical to the HPC community. In this paper, we run extensive I/O measuring tests on a production leadership-class storage system to capture the performance variabilities of large-scale parallel I/O. Analyzing these results and its statistic correlation revealed some valuable insights into the characteristics of the storage system and the root cause of I/O performance variability. Further, we leverage these findings and propose an I/O middleware design refactoring which can improve the performance of the parallel I/O by optimizing the data striping and placement. Our preliminary evaluation results demonstrate the proposed approach can reduce the average per-process write latency by at least 80% and the maximum per-process write latency by at least 20%.

Wan, Lipeng↗
NASA NTRS1973

Development and in-flight performance of the Mariner 9 spacecraft propulsion system

On November 14, 1971, Mariner 9 was decelerated into orbit about Mars by a 1334 N (300 lbf) liquid bipropellant propulsion system. This paper describes and summarizes the development and in-flight performance of this pressure-fed, nitrogen tetroxide/monomethyl hydrazine bipropellant system. The design of all Mariner propulsion subsystems has been predicted upon the premise that simplicity of approach, coupled with thorough qualification and margin-limits testing, is the key to cost-effective reliability. The qualification test program and analytical modeling are also discussed. Since the propulsion subsystem is modular in nature, it was completely checked, serviced, and tested independent of the spacecraft. Proper prediction of in-flight performance required the development of three significant modeling tools to predict and account for nitrogen saturation of the propellant during the six-month coast period and to predict and statistically analyze in-flight data.

Evans, D. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Explicit 3D continuum fracture modeling with smooth particle hydrodynamics

Impact phenomena shaped our solar system. As usual for most solar system processes, the scales are far different than we can address directly in the laboratory. Impact velocities are often much higher than we can achieve, sizes are often vastly larger, and most impacts take place in an environment where the only gravitational force is the mutual pull of the impactors. The Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique has been applied in the past to the simulations of giant impacts. In these simulations, the colliding objects were so massive (at least a sizeable fraction of the Earth's mass) that material strength was negligible compared to gravity. This assumption can no longer be made when the bodies are much smaller. To this end, we have developed a 3D SPH code that includes a strength model to which we have added a von Mises yielding relation for stresses beyond the Hugoniot Elastic Limit. At the lower stresses associated with brittle failure, we use a rate-dependent strength based on the nucleation of incipient flaws whose number density is given by a Weibull distribution. Following Grady and Kipp and Melosh et al., we introduce a state variable D ('damage'), 0 less than D less than 1, which expresses the local reduction in strength due to crack growth under tensile loading. Unfortunately for the hydrodynamics, Grady and Kipp's model predicts which fragments are the most probable ones and not the ones that are really formed. This means, for example, that if a given laboratory experiment is modeled, the fragment distribution obtained from the Grady-Kipp theory would be equivalent to a ensemble average over many realizations of the experiment. On the other hand, the hydrodynamics itself is explicit and evolves not an ensemble average but very specific fragments. Hence, there is a clear incompatibility with the deterministic nature of the hydrodynamics equations and the statistical approach of the Grady-Kipp dynamical fracture model. We remedy these shortcomings by making the incipient flaw distribution explicit, i.e., particles carry activation strains which are distributed at random with a probability of occurrence given by the Weibull distribution. If the local principal axis strain exceeds this limit, damage starts to grow. By growing explicit cracks together with statistical cracks (damage) at the sub-particle scale, we ensure that material strength and fragmentation is independent of model resolution. We tested our scheme by simulating laboratory impact experiments on basalt spheres.

Benz, W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Software Reliability 2002

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Wallace, Dolores R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of Airborne Precision Spacing in a Human-in-the-Loop Experiment

A significant bottleneck in the current air traffic system occurs at the runway. Expanding airports and adding new runways will help solve this problem; however, this comes with significant costs: financially, politically and environmentally. A complementary solution is to safely increase the capacity of current runways. This can be achieved by precisely spacing aircraft at the runway threshold, with a resulting reduction in the spacing bu er required under today s operations. At NASA's Langley Research Center, the Airspace Systems program has been investigating airborne technologies and procedures that will assist the flight crew in achieving precise spacing behind another aircraft. A new spacing clearance allows the pilot to follow speed cues from a new on-board guidance system called Airborne Merging and Spacing for Terminal Arrivals (AMSTAR). AMSTAR receives Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) reports from an assigned, leading aircraft and calculates the appropriate speed for the ownship to fly to achieve the desired spacing interval, time- or distance-based, at the runway threshold. Since the goal is overall system capacity, the speed guidance algorithm is designed to provide system-wide benefits and stability to a string of arriving aircraft. An experiment was recently performed at the NASA Langley Air Traffic Operations Laboratory (ATOL) to test the flexibility of Airborne Precision Spacing operations under a variety of operational conditions. These included several types of merge and approach geometries along with the complementary merging and in-trail operations. Twelve airline pilots and four controllers participated in this simulation. Performance and questionnaire data were collected from a total of eighty-four individual arrivals. The pilots were able to achieve precise spacing with a mean error of 0.5 seconds and a standard deviation of 4.7 seconds. No statistically significant di erences in spacing performance were found between in-trail and merging operations or among the three modeled airspaces. Questionnaire data showed general acceptance for both pilots and controllers. These results reinforce previous findings from full-mission simulation and flight evaluation of the in-trail operations. This paper reviews the results of this simulation in detail.

Barmore, Bryan E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supersonic Free-Flight Dynamics Testing in the Stratosphere

A new technique for obtaining stratospheric free-flight dynamics data for atmospheric entry capsules is described. The Stratospheric Projectile Experiment of Entry Dynamics (SPEED) represents a new approach to characterizing the free-flight dynamics of vehicles in the supersonic and transonic regime of flight. The SPEED test architecture leverages a stratospheric balloon and 3D-printed flight system in a novel two-stage configuration to deliver test articles to supersonic conditions in the atmosphere which achieve dynamic similitude with a full-scale vehicle. Designed to address the limitations of existing test facilities, SPEED captures the complete time evolution of a vehicle’s dynamic state while producing a statistically significant number of observed flight trajectories to address the stochastic nature of the wake-driven dynamic stability phenomenon. SPEED was developed over two years at NASA Ames Research Center. The inaugural flight of the SPEED test platform was conducted in the summer of 2024 where scaled capsules of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System and Dragonfly entry vehicle were tested. This paper describes the motivation for a new test architecture, operational constraints and achievable flight test envelopes, the design and development of the SPEED concept, and results from the demonstration flight. Techniques for estimating the dynamic aerodynamic characteristics and atmospheric conditions for each test article individually and as a collective are also discussed.

Entry Vehicle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Technology Maturation of the Stratospheric Projectile Experiment of Entry Dynamics

A new technique for obtaining stratospheric free-flight dynamics data for atmospheric entry capsules is described. The Stratospheric Projectile Experiment of Entry Dynamics (SPEED) represents a new approach to characterizing the free-flight dynamics of vehicles in the supersonic and transonic regime of flight. The SPEED test architecture leverages a stratospheric balloon and 3D-printed flight system in a novel two-stage configuration to deliver test articles to supersonic conditions in the atmosphere which achieve dynamic similitude with a full-scale vehicle. Designed to address the limitations of existing test facilities, SPEED captures the complete time evolution of a vehicle’s dynamic state while producing a statistically significant number of observed flight trajectories to address the stochastic nature of the wake-driven dynamic stability phenomenon. SPEED was developed over two years at NASA Ames Research Center. This presentation describes the motivation for a new test architecture, operational constraints and achievable flight test envelopes, the design, and development of the SPEED concept.

Dynamic Stability↗
DOE OSTI2016

Electron diffraction of CBr{sub 4} in superfluid helium droplets: A step towards single molecule diffraction

We demonstrate the practicality of electron diffraction of single molecules inside superfluid helium droplets using CBr{sub 4} as a testing case. By reducing the background from pure undoped droplets via multiple doping, with small corrections for dimers and trimers, clearly resolved diffraction rings of CBr{sub 4} similar to those of gas phase molecules can be observed. The experimental data from CBr{sub 4} doped droplets are in agreement with both theoretical calculations and with experimental results of gaseous species. The abundance of monomers and clusters in the droplet beam also qualitatively agrees with the Poisson statistics. Possible extensions of this approach to macromolecular ions will also be discussed. This result marks the first step in building a molecular goniometer using superfluid helium droplet cooling and field induced orientation. The superior cooling effect of helium droplets is ideal for field induced orientation, but the diffraction background from helium is a concern. This work addresses this background issue and identifies a possible solution. Accumulation of diffraction images only becomes meaningful when all images are produced from molecules oriented in the same direction, and hence a molecular goniometer is a crucial technology for serial diffraction of single molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2004

A New Approach to Using a Cloud-Resolving Model to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Recently Grabowski and Khairoutdinov and Randall have proposed and demonstrated, the feasibility of using 2D CRMs (these did not include detailed land processes and used periodic lateral boundary conditions) as 'super-parameterizations or a multi-scale modeling framework MMF' for cloud processes within atmospheric generation circulation models (GCMs). In the MMF, a fine-resolution 2D CRM takes the place of the single-column parameterization that is used in conventional GCMs. An overview of this approach is given by Randall et al.. Since a CRM can explicitly simulate cloud processes at the natural space and time scales of clouddynamical processes, it's possible to compute statistics of cloud fields, including radiances and radar backscatters, directly simulated/produced by the CRM. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on a 2D GCE model and the Goddard fvGCM. A prototype MMF will be developed at end of 2004. The major objectives are to test and evaluate its performance using the GCE model as the super parameterization and compare its results with other super parameterizations, conventional GCMs and observations. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (WE) model. The GCE model is a CRM and it has been improved and applied to study the precipitation processes in the past two decades. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low 'clean' concentration and a high 'dirty' concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated. In addition, the similarities and differences between bulk- and spectral-bin microphysics will be presented,

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
DOE OSTI2017

Massive Associative K-biclustering (MAK) v1.0

Massive Associative K-biclustering (MAK) is a method to address the key limitations in other biclustering approaches. In a formal evaluation against new simulated data sets with more realistic properties MAK improves recovery of biclusters exhibiting common behavior across conditions, with the highest F1 scores, a measure of a test's accuracy, and lowest false positive rates, the probability of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis, compared to established methods. The developers show how MAK can be applied to a popular data set from Saccharomyces cerevisiae to uncover new properties not captured by other methods. MAK biclusters showed increased statistical enrichments for known regulatory associations and gene functions, including for nearly 30% of the novel MAK biclusters not found by other methods. Compared to other methods, MAK results had at least two-fold higher coverage of differential expression in the overall dataset, an overlapping bicluster network with distinct modules for protein expression and energy metabolism, and biologically relevant overlapping biclusters including cases of combinatorial regulation. MAK is suited for large datasets with many potentially noisy and overlapping patterns of varying sizes.

JOACHIMIAK, MARCIN↗
DOE OSTI2019

Waste Chemistry Envelope for the Determination of Pitting Corrosion Susceptibility - 19554

Liquid radioactive wastes at the Hanford and Savannah River sites are stored in large underground carbon steel tanks. The high-level wastes are processed in several of the tanks and then transferred by piping to other site facilities for further processing before they are stabilized in a vitrified or grout waste form. Based on waste removal and processing schedules, many of the tanks, will be required to be in service for times exceeding the initial intended life (i.e., greater than 60 years). Until the waste is removed from storage, transferred, and processed, the materials and structures of the tanks must maintain a confinement function by providing a barrier to the environment and by maintaining acceptable structural stability during design basis events, which include loadings from both normal service and abnormal (e.g., earthquake) conditions. Administrative programs are in place to mitigate potential corrosion mechanisms and thereby maintain the structural and leak integrity functions of these waste tanks throughout their intended service life. Waste chemistry and temperature control are the means by which corrosion degradation of the waste tanks is minimized. Chemistry controls are based on in-situ coupon tests, waste tank experience, and laboratory testing. These requirements comprise the technical standards for corrosion control. The standards are utilized then as guidelines for operational procedures. The present waste chemistry controls for the Hanford DSTs were established in the 1980's in response to tank failures caused by stress corrosion cracking (SCC) at the DOE Savannah River Site (SRS). Portions of the SRS chemistry limits, which were developed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) were coupled with corrosion testing results from Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL) and adopted for corrosion control of the double-shell tank (DST) waste at the Hanford Site. Since that time, the temperatures of the waste in the DSTs have decreased to less than 50 deg. C in most cases as the radioactive material has decayed. As a consequence, new chemistry controls were formulated for SCC in 2010. This testing however, did not address that potential for pitting in the supernatant and at the liquid-air interface. Indeed, initial tests indicated that the inhibitor requirements for SCC would be insufficient for the prevention of pitting. In addition to lower waste temperatures, future retrieval and process changes may impact the DST waste chemistry. Initial projections suggest that the waste chemistry of the DSTs may shift to a broader range of pH and higher aggressive anion concentrations (e.g., chloride, sulfate, etc.) than the wastes that are presently stored. Additionally, processes within the vitrification facility may result in streams that are returned to the tank farm for evaporation. These streams may also contain high concentrations of aggressive species. SRNL investigated the propensity for pitting of the carbon steel waste tanks at current and projected DST waste chemistries. A statistically designed series of tests provided a pitting factor that relates the ratio of the inhibitor species to the aggressive species and the probability of observing pitting. An acceptable pitting factor was determined and was utilized for the development of a new chemistry envelope. The new chemistry envelope was compared to the envelope that was established for SCC and was determined to be bounding. Validation of the new chemistry envelope was performed via model simulations and comparison with historical experimental results and approaches to establishing chemistry envelopes. The new chemistry envelope will eventually be part of an overall assessment of the condition of the tanks and any changes made to the overall structural integrity program for the Hanford DSTs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2001

Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

Aires, Filipe↗
DOE OSTI2016

Global Sensitivity Analysis with Small Sample Sizes: Ordinary Least Squares Approach

A new version of global sensitivity analysis is developed in this paper. This new version coupled with tools from statistics, machine learning, and optimization can devise small sample sizes that allow for the accurate ordering of sensitivity coefficients for the first 10-30 most sensitive chemical reactions in complex chemical-kinetic mechanisms, and is particularly useful for studying the chemistry in realistic devices. A key part of the paper is calibration of these small samples. Because these small sample sizes are developed for use in realistic combustion devices, the calibration is done over the ranges of conditions in such devices, with a test case being the operating conditions of a compression ignition engine studied earlier. Compression ignition engines operate under low-temperature combustion conditions with quite complicated chemistry making this calibration difficult, leading to the possibility of false positives and false negatives in the ordering of the reactions. So an important aspect of the paper is showing how to handle the trade-off between false positives and false negatives using ideas from the multiobjective optimization literature. The combination of the new global sensitivity method and the calibration are sample sizes a factor of approximately 10 times smaller than were available with our previous algorithm.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerated basis adaptation in homogeneous chaos spaces

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) provide an efficient approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) and have been adapted to diverse applications across the spectrum of science and engineering. For situations involving large stochastic parameterizations, the curse of dimensionality renders PCE-based methods computationally prohibitive. A basis adaptation approach for PCE was proposed by Tipireddy and Ghanem (2014) which transforms the input random variables through an isometry such that sufficient probabilistic characterization of specific quantities of interest (QoI) is concentrated in an algebraic manifold embedded in the linear span of the dominant transformed variables. While quite versatile, that original version of the PCE basis adaptation exhibited slow convergence for a number of problems of practical significance. In the present paper, we propose two novel methods to accelerate the convergence of the original basis adaptation approach, thus expanding its reach while also providing insight into its performance. In the first method, information gained from a pilot PCE representation is used to correct the mean and Gaussian coefficients in the adapted space. By taking advantages of probabilistic information in higher dimensional adaptation gleaned from an initial adaptation, the second method updates the rotation matrix used to identify the dominant transformed variables. In this manner, the new rotation matrix concentrates even more probabilistic information in its first few dimensions. These two method can be combined to achieve even better performance, the combined method is referred to as sequentially optimized adaptation method. Here, the methods are demonstrated on an analytical test function and a model of a space structure with several sub-components and a non-smooth quantity of interest representing the maximum acceleration over time. Both methods achieve accelerated convergence of the basis adaptation approach with negligible additional costs.

Accelerated convergence↗
DOE OSTI2019

Community detection and unveiling of hierarchy in networks: a density-based clustering approach

Abstract The unveiling of communities within a network or graph, and the hierarchization of its members that results is of utmost importance in areas ranging from social to biochemical networks, from electronic circuits to cybersecurity. We present a statistical mechanics approach that uses a normalized Gaussian function which captures the impact of a node within its neighborhood and leads to a density-ranking of nodes by considering the distance between nodes as punishment. A hill-climbing procedure is applied to determine the density attractors and identify the unique parent (leader) of each member as well as the group leader. This organization of the nodes results in a tree-like network with multiple clusters, the community tree. The method is tested using synthetic networks generated by the LFR benchmarking algorithm for network sizes between 500 and 30,000 nodes and mixing parameter between 0.1 and 0.9 . Our results show a reasonable agreement with the LFR results for low to medium values of the mixing parameter and indicate a very mild dependence on the size of the network.

Felfli, Zineb (ORCID:0000000275294635)↗