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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

Gardner, Adrian↗
DOE OSTI2019

Retrieving fields from proton radiography without source profiles

Proton radiography is a technique in high-energy density science to diagnose magnetic and/or electric fields in a plasma by firing a proton beam and detecting its modulated intensity profile on a screen. Current approaches to retrieve the integrated field from the modulated intensity profile require the unmodulated beam intensity profile before the interaction, which is rarely available experimentally due to shot-to-shot variability. In this paper, we present a statistical method to retrieve the integrated field without needing to know the exact source profile. We apply our method to experimental data, showing the robustness of our approach. Furthermore, our proposed technique allows for the retrieval not only of the path-integrated fields, but also of the statistical properties of the fields.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Geometric Estimation of Multivariate Dependency

This paper proposes a geometric estimator of dependency between a pair of multivariate random variables. The proposed estimator of dependency is based on a randomly permuted geometric graph (the minimal spanning tree) over the two multivariate samples. This estimator converges to a quantity that we call the geometric mutual information (GMI), which is equivalent to the Henze–Penrose divergence. between the joint distribution of the multivariate samples and the product of the marginals. The GMI has many of the same properties as standard MI but can be estimated from empirical data without density estimation; making it scalable to large datasets. The proposed empirical estimator of GMI is simple to implement, involving the construction of an minimal spanning tree (MST) spanning over both the original data and a randomly permuted version of this data. We establish asymptotic convergence of the estimator and convergence rates of the bias and variance for smooth multivariate density functions belonging to a Hölder class. We demonstrate the advantages of our proposed geometric dependency estimator in a series of experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Effect of Stabilization Heat Treatments on the Tensile and Creep Behavior of an Advanced Nickel-Based Disk Alloy

As part of NASA s Advanced Subsonic Technology Program, a study of stabilization heat treatment options for an advanced nickel-base disk alloy, ME 209, was performed. Using a simple, physically based approach, the effect of stabilization heat treatments on tensile and creep properties was analyzed in this paper. Solutions temperature, solution cooling rate, and stabilization temperature/time were found to have a significant impact on tensile and creep properties. These effects were readily quantified using the following methodology. First, the effect of solution cooling rate was assessed to determine its impact on a given property. The as-cooled property was then modified by using two multiplicative factors which assess the impact of solution temperature and stabilization parameters. Comparison of experimental data with predicted values showed this physically based analysis produced good results that rivaled the statistical analysis employed, which required numerous changes in the form of the regression equation depending on the property and temperature in question. As this physically based analysis uses the data for input, it should be noted that predictions which attempt to extrapolate beyond the bounds of the data must be viewed with skepticism. Future work aimed at expanding the range of the stabilization/aging parameters explored in this study would be highly desirable, especially at the higher solution cooling rates.

Gayda, John↗
NASA NTRS2016

Canonical Statistical Model for Maximum Expected Immission of Wire Conductor in an Aperture Enclosure

Prediction of the maximum expected electromagnetic pick-up of conductors inside a realistic shielding enclosure is an important canonical problem for system-level EMC design of space craft, launch vehicles, aircraft and automobiles. This paper introduces a simple statistical power balance model for prediction of the maximum expected current in a wire conductor inside an aperture enclosure. It calculates both the statistical mean and variance of the immission from the physical design parameters of the problem. Familiar probability density functions can then be used to predict the maximum expected immission for deign purposes. The statistical power balance model requires minimal EMC design information and solves orders of magnitude faster than existing numerical models, making it ultimately viable for scaled-up, full system-level modeling. Both experimental test results and full wave simulation results are used to validate the foundational model.

Computational electromagnetics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data (Final Report)

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components: (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

MFNets: Multifidelity data-driven networks for Bayesian learning and prediction

This paper presents a multifidelity uncertainty quantification framework called MFNets. We seek to address three existing challenges that arise when experimental and simulation data from different sources are used to enhance statistical estimation and prediction with quantified uncertainty. Specifically, we demonstrate that MFNets can (1) fuse heterogeneous data sources arising from simulations with different parameterizations, e.g simulation models with different uncertain parameters or data sets collected under different environmental conditions; (2) encode known relationships among data sources to reduce data requirements; and (3) improve the robustness of existing multi-fidelity approaches to corrupted data. MFNets construct a network of latent variables (LVs) to facilitate the fusion of data from an ensemble of sources of varying credibility and cost. These LVs are posited as explanatory variables that provide the source of correlation in the observed data. Furthermore, MFNets provide a way to encode prior physical knowledge to enable efficient estimation of statistics and/or construction of surrogates via conditional independence relations on the LVs. We highlight the utility of our framework with a number of theoretical results which assess the quality of the posterior mean as a frequentist estimator and compare it to standard sampling approaches that use single fidelity, multilevel, and control variate Monte Carlo estimators. We also use the proposed framework to derive the Monte Carlo-based control variate estimator entirely from the use of Bayes rule and linear-Gaussian models -- to our knowledge the first such derivation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to work with different uncertain parameters across different models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Finetuned Cancellations and Improbable Theories

It is argued that the x–y cancellation model (XYCM) is a good proxy for discussions of finetuned cancellations in physical theories. XYCM is then analyzed from a statistical perspective, where it is argued that a finetuned point in the parameter space is not abnormal, with any such point being just as probable as any other point. However, landing inside a standardly defined finetuned region (i.e., the full parameter space of finetuned points) has a much lower probability than landing outside the region, and that probability is invariant under assumed ranges of parameters. This proposition requires asserting also that the finetuned target region is a priori established. Furthermore, it is surmised that highly finetuned theories are generally expected to be highly improbable. An actionable implication of this moderate naturalness position is that the search for a non-finetuned explanation to supplant an apparently finetuned theory is likely to be a valid pursuit, but not guaranteed to be. A statistical characterization of this moderate position is presented, as well as those of the extreme pro-naturalness and anti-naturalness positions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-mode1 integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
DOE OSTI2024

EFIT‐AI: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Assisted Equilibrium Reconstruction for Tokamak Experiments and Burning Plasmas (Final Report)

The EFIT-AI project is creating a modern advanced equilibrium reconstruction code suitable for tokamak experiments of burning plasmas. EFIT [1,2] was the first and is the most extensively used equilibrium reconstruction code in the world. This project builds on the production-level experience and adds key elements as follows. 1. A Model Order Reduction (MOR) version of the two-dimensional (2D) Grad-Shafranov equation solver (EFIT-MORNN) using physics-informed neural networks. 2. Improved optimization and data analysis capabilities using a Bayesian framework enhanced with machine learning. 3. A MOR version of the three-dimensional (3D) perturbed equilibrium reconstruction tool.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Analysis Methodology for the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope

The Large Area Telescope (LAT) instrument on the Gamma Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) has been designed to detect high-energy gamma rays and determine their direction of incidence and energy. We propose a reconstruction algorithm based on recent advances in statistical methodology. This method, alternative to the standard event analysis inherited from high energy collider physics experiments, incorporates more accurately the physical processes occurring in the detector, and makes full use of the statistical information available. It could thus provide a better estimate of the direction and energy of the primary photon.

Morris, Robin D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cluster expansion by transfer learning for phase stability predictions

Recent progress towards universal machine-learned interatomic potentials holds considerable promise for materials discovery. Yet the accuracy of these potentials for predicting phase stability may still be limited. In contrast, cluster expansions provide accurate phase stability predictions but are computationally demanding to parameterize from first principles, especially for structures of low dimension or with a large number of components, such as interfaces or multimetal catalysts. We overcome this trade-off via transfer learning. Using Bayesian inference, we incorporate prior statistical knowledge from machine-learned and physics-based potentials, enabling us to sample the most informative configurations and to efficiently fit first-principles cluster expansions. Furthermore, this algorithm is tested on Pt:Ni, showing robust convergence of the mixing energies as a function of sample size with reduced statistical fluctuations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Physics Representation of Deep Learning Models in Environmental Applications

Deep learning (DL) models have been popular in earth and environmental modeling and analysis, which exhibit huge potential in capturing and reconstructing the non-linearity of relevant environmental processes. They are extensively used as analytical tools or emulators for multiple domains (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and biogeochemistry). Despite their success, their internal working mechanism remains largely unknown. Such a lack of knowledge hinders the identification of physically consistent models that are fully adaptive to non-stationary climate, as well as the development of physics-informed machine learning such as physics-informed neural network (PINN). To establish preliminary knowledge and framework of such physics representation evaluation, this project focuses on an improved understanding of DL models in the environmental applications. DL models are increasingly applied to environmental modeling and prediction. However, they have been evaluated mostly from a performance perspective, and there is a gap in understanding how they represent the known physics internally. Such knowledge is especially critical when applying DL models under climate change conditions, where new inputs are likely outside the ranges of the training datasets. In this project, we reveal how the known physical processes are represented within DL models from both statistical and mechanistic perspectives. Leveraging the traditional model evaluations that focus more on the accuracies of predictions, we establish a framework that examines both the accuracy and physics representation of DL models. This analysis framework can identify DL models that make the correct predictions based on correct physics, thus enhancing the existing explainable artificial intelligence (explainable-AI) portfolio. It lays a foundation for developing novel metrics to evaluate the emerging DL models in environmental applications. This knowledge also informs the development of physics-informed DL models by revealing the direct connections between the known physical processes and specific model components or structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Classification without labels: learning from mixed samples in high energy physics

Modern machine learning techniques can be used to construct powerful models for difficult collider physics problems. In many applications, however, these models are trained on imperfect simulations due to a lack of truth-level information in the data, which risks the model learning artifacts of the simulation. In this paper, we introduce the paradigm of classification without labels (CWoLa) in which a classifier is trained to distinguish statistical mixtures of classes, which are common in collider physics. Crucially, neither individual labels nor class proportions are required, yet we prove that the optimal classifier in the CWoLa paradigm is also the optimal classifier in the traditional fully-supervised case where all label information is available. After demonstrating the power of this method in an analytical toy example, we consider a realistic benchmark for collider physics: distinguishing quark- versus gluon-initiated jets using mixed quark/gluon training samples. More generally, CWoLa can be applied to any classification problem where labels or class proportions are unknown or simulations are unreliable, but statistical mixtures of the classes are available.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Piecewise interaction picture density matrix quantum Monte Carlo

The density matrix quantum Monte Carlo (DMQMC) set of methods stochastically samples the exact N-body density matrix for interacting electrons at finite temperature. We introduce a simple modification to the interaction picture DMQMC (IP-DMQMC) method that overcomes the limitation of only sampling one inverse temperature point at a time, instead allowing for the sampling of a temperature range within a single calculation, thereby reducing the computational cost. At the target inverse temperature, instead of ending the simulation, we incorporate a change of picture away from the interaction picture. The resulting equations of motion have piecewise functions and use the interaction picture in the first phase of a simulation, followed by the application of the Bloch equation once the target inverse temperature is reached. We find that the performance of this method is similar to or better than the DMQMC and IP-DMQMC algorithms in a variety of molecular test systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evidence for Majorana bound states in an iron-based superconductor

The search for Majorana bound state (MBS) has recently emerged as one of most active research areas in condensed matter physics, due to its non-Abelian statistics which can be used for robust quantum computation. A highly soughtafter platform for MBS is two-dimensional topological superconductors, where MBS is predicted to exist as a zero-energy mode in the core of a vortex. A clear observation of MBS, however, is often hindered by the presence of additional low-energy bound states inside the vortex core. By using scanning tunneling microscope on the newly discovered superconducting topological surface state of iron-based superconductor FeTe 1-x Se x (x = 0.45, T c = 14.5 K), we clearly observe a pristine MBS inside a vortex core, well separated from non-topological bound states which are pushed away from zero energy due to the high ratio between the superconducting gap and the Fermi energy in this material. This observation offers a new, robust platform for realizing and manipulating Majorana bound states at a relatively high temperature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Many-Body Physics in the NISQ Era: Quantum Programming a Discrete Time Crystal

Recent progress in the realm of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices represents an exciting opportunity for many-body physics by introducing new laboratory platforms with unprecedented control and measurement capabilities. We explore the implications of NISQ platforms for many-body physics in a practical sense: we ask which physical phenomena, in the domain of quantum statistical mechanics, they may realize more readily than traditional experimental platforms. While a universal quantum computer can simulate any system, the eponymous noise inherent to NISQ devices practically favors certain simulation tasks over others in the near term. As a particularly well-suited target, we identify discrete time crystals (DTCs), novel nonequilibrium states of matter that break time translation symmetry. These can only be realized in the intrinsically out-of-equilibrium setting of periodically driven quantum systems stabilized by disorder-induced many-body localization. While promising precursors of the DTC have been observed across a variety of experimental platforms—ranging from trapped ions to nitrogen-vacancy centers to NMR crystals—none have all the necessary ingredients for realizing a fully fledged incarnation of this phase, and for detecting its signature long-range spatiotemporal order. We show that a new generation of quantum simulators can be programmed to realize the DTC phase and to experimentally detect its dynamical properties, a task requiring extensive capabilities for programmability, initialization, and readout. Specifically, the architecture of Google’s Sycamore processor is a remarkably close match for the task at hand. We also discuss the effects of environmental decoherence, and how they can be distinguished from ‘internal’ decoherence coming from closed-system thermalization dynamics. Already with existing technology and noise levels, we find that DTC spatiotemporal order would be observable over hundreds of periods, with parametric improvements to come as the hardware advances.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗