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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34

Airport Delay Prediction with Temporal Fusion Transformers

Since flight delay hurts passengers, airlines, and airports, its prediction becomes crucial for the decision-making of all stakeholders in the aviation industry and thus has been attempted by various previous research. However, previous delay predictions are often categorical and at a highly aggregated level. To improve that, this study proposes to apply the novel Temporal Fusion Transformer model and predict numerical airport arrival delays at quarter hour level for U.S. top 30 airports. Inputs to our model include airport demand and capacity forecasts, historic airport operation efficiency information, airport wind and visibility conditions, as well as en-route weather and traffic conditions. The results show that our model achieves satisfactory performance measured by small prediction errors on the test set. In addition, the interpretability analysis of the model outputs identifies the important input factors for delay prediction.

Liu, Ke [University of California Berkeley]↗

Correlation Studies of Sea Ice Concentration with Surface Temperature and Meltponding

The spatial and temporal variability of sea ice concentrations derived from passive microwave data is studied in conjunction with co-registered high resolution infrared and visible satellite data. Cloud free infrared and visible data provide surface temperature and large scale surface characteristics, respectively, that can be used to better understand regional and seasonal fluctuations in ice concentrations. Results from correlation analysis of ice concentration versus surface temperature data show the intuitively expected negative relationship but the strength in the relationship is unexpectedly very strong. In the Antarctic, the correlation is consistently very high spatially when yearly anomalies are used, and not so high in some areas when seasonal anomalies are used, especially during spring and summer. In the monthly anomalies, the correlation is also good, especially in dynamically active regions. The expanse in the anomalies in surface temperature are shown to go way beyond the sea ice regions into the open ocean and continental areas, suggesting strong atmospheric forcing. Weak correlations are normally found in highly consolidated areas, where large changes in temperature do not cause large changes in ice concentration on a short term, and in open ocean polynya areas, where the change in ice concentration may be cause by melt from the underside of the ice. In the Arctic, strong correlations between surface temperature and ice concentration are evident for all seasons except during the summer. In the summer, factors such as meltponding, surface wetness, and ice breakup, as detected by high resolution visible data, contributes to larger uncertainties in the determination of ice concentration and the lack of good correlation of the variables.

Comiso, J. C.↗

Long-term super-resolution inner mitochondrial membrane imaging with a lipid probe

The inner mitochondrial membrane (IMM) generates power to drive cell function, and its dynamics control mitochondrial health and cellular homeostasis. Here, we describe the cell-permeant, lipid-like small molecule MAO-N 3 and use it to assemble high-density environmentally sensitive (HIDE) probes that selectively label and image the IMM in live cells and multiple cell states. MAO-N 3 pairs with strain-promoted azide–alkyne click chemistry-reactive fluorophores to support HIDE imaging using confocal, structured illumination, single-molecule localization and stimulated emission depletion microscopy, all with significantly improved resistance to photobleaching. These probes generate images with excellent spatial and temporal resolution, require no genetic manipulations, are non-toxic in model cell lines and primary cardiomyocytes (even under conditions that amplify the effects of mitochondrial toxins) and can visualize mitochondrial dynamics for 12.5 h. This probe will enable comprehensive studies of IMM dynamics with high temporal and spatial resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water Use and Their Spatio‐Temporal Patterns for Small and Mid‐Sized Cities in the Contiguous United States

This study explores the drivers of urban water use and their spatial-temporal patterns in 142 small and mid-sized cities across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) by analyzing the data directly collected from these cities and using advanced machine learning techniques. We identify five distinguished clusters across CONUS, each showing unique trends of the impact of drivers on water use. We find that socioeconomic factors significantly influence water use in eastern and southwestern cities, while climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature range dominate in central and northwestern regions. Temporal analysis reveals the impacts of major socioeconomic and climatic disruptions on urban water use in the period 2011–2021, including the COVID lockdown, the rapid growth of data centers, and the drought of 2012. In addition, our analysis suggests that economic growth in small and mid-sized US cities continues to be accompanied by rising water use, contrasting with the opposite trend observed in large cities in prior studies. This implies that as smaller cities develop, their water use may increase above current levels until incomes reach a higher threshold, highlighting the need to improve water use efficiency. This study also presents useful insights for developing effective water demand management strategies in response to climatic variability and socioeconomic growth in small and mid-sized cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, a 3-hourly 0.04° global precipitation climate data record for heavy precipitation studies

Accurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward Connecting Subtropical Algal Blooms to Freshwater Nutrient Sources Using a Long-Term, Spatially Distributed, In Situ Chlorophyll-A Record

Harmful algal blooms are increasing in tropical estuaries which can have complex morphologies and hydrologic regimes while being less well studied than temperate estuaries. Spatial and temporal patterns of algal bloom occurrence in Florida Bay were examined to evaluate the potential contribution of the various freshwater inputs to the subtropical bay as nutrient sources. Monthly water quality data, from 1989 to 2009, at 28 sampling stations across the bay were analyzed at the station-month level, aggregated into hydrologic Zones of Similar Influence and based on annual rainfall seasons. The Zones of Similar Influence are linked to the geomorphology of the bay with western areas being more directly connected to the Southwest Florida Shelf waters than eastern areas. Correlation analysis suggested that inputs of phosphorus were the predominant factor in the initiation of elevated chlorophyll a (chl-a) levels but was also consistent with higher nitrogen limitation in western Florida Bay as reported in literature. Differences in mean monthly chl-a indicated a seasonality of algal blooms with elevated chl-a concentrations following heavy precipitation months for stations in the north-central and western areas of the bay where algal blooms have been re-occurring. Differences in stations' chl-a concentrations showed stations to the northwest as having significantly higher concentrations than more interior stations during the dry season but not during the rainy season (when algal blooms are occurring). Mapping the sampling stations atop the bathymetry of Florida Bay highlighted the importance of coastal morphology in evaluation of potential nutrient pathways for estuarine algal bloom sources. The specific factors resulting in the seasonal cycles of blooms remained unresolved but portions of the bay and times of year were identified as important areas for further research. This study indicates that illustrating the interplay of geomorphology and winds and rains at fine temporal and spatial resolution is required to describe nutrient circulation for systems with complex morphologies such as those associated with reefs, island matrices and headlands.

Florida Bay↗

Assessment of long-term spatio-temporal radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure

Highlights: • A year's worth of RF-EMF data is collected in an urban sensor network is analysed. • A full spatio-temporal model of the RF-EMF exposure in the study area is built. • Short-term variations of the RF-EMF exposure are collected in temporal profiles. • Models using data collected at different instants are improved by adjusting for time. As both the environment and telecommunications networks are inherently dynamic, our exposure to environmental radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMF) at an arbitrary location is not at all constant in time. In this study, more than a year's worth of measurement data collected in a fixed low-cost exposimeter network distributed over an urban environment was analysed and used to build, for the first time, a full spatio-temporal surrogate model of outdoor exposure to downlink Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) signals. Though no global trend was discovered over the measuring period, the difference in measured exposure between two instances could reach up to 42 dB (a factor 12,000 in power density). Furthermore, it was found that, taking into account the hour and day of the measurement, the accuracy of the surrogate model in the area under study was improved by up to 50% compared to models that neglect the daily temporal variability of the RF signals. However, further study is required to assess the extent to which the results obtained in the considered environment can be extrapolated to other geographic locations.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Evaluation of PERSIANN-CDR Constructed Using GPCP V2.2 and V2.3 and A Comparison with TRMM 3B42 V7 and CPC Unified Gauge-Based Analysis in Global Scale

Providing reliable long-term global precipitation records at high spatial and temporal resolutions is crucial for climatological studies. Satellite-based precipitation estimations are a promising alternative to rain gauges for providing homogeneous precipitation information. Most satellite-based precipitation products suffer from short-term data records, which make them unsuitable for various climatological and hydrological applications. However, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) provides more than 35 years of precipitation records at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolutions. The PERSIANN-CDR algorithm uses monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, which has been recently updated to version 2.3, for reducing the biases in the output of the PERSIANN model. In this study, we constructed PERSIANN-CDR using the newest version of GPCP (V2.3). We compared the PERSIANN-CDR dataset that is constructed using GPCP V2.3 (from here on referred to as PERSIANN-CDR V2.3) with the PERSIANN-CDR constructed using GPCP V2.2 (from here on PERSIANN-CDR V2.2), at monthly and daily scales for the period from 2009 to 2013. First, we discuss the changes between PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 and V2.2 over the land and ocean. Second, we evaluate the improvements in PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 with respect to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based analysis, a gauged-based reference, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7), a commonly used satellite reference, at monthly and daily scales. The results show noticeable differences between PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 and V2.2 over oceans between 40° and 60° latitude in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Monthly and daily scale comparisons of the two bias-adjusted versions of PERSIANN-CDR with the above-mentioned references emphasize that PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 has improved mostly over the global land area, especially over the CONUS and Australia. The updated PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 data has replaced V2.2 data for the 2009–2013 period on CHRS data portal and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest Canopy Density Effects on Snowpack Across the Climate Gradients of the Western United States Mountain Ranges

Limitations inherent to field studies such as limited spatial and temporal coverage has made it very challenging, if not impossible, to explicitly disentangle the effect of canopy density from climate on snowpack dynamics. Hence, our understanding of how variations in canopy density can affect snow processes under diverse climate conditions has been limited. To address this knowledge gap, this study uses a physics-based modeling approach to represent most key processes that drive snow accumulation and melt in the open and forest with varied forest density, across the climate gradients of the Western U.S. mountain ranges, as represented by 228 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) locations. Simulations suggest that, under most winter climate conditions, canopy density exerts a strong influence on under-canopy snowpack dynamics and their controlling processes. Changing canopy density can shift the direction of the modeled differential peak snow accumulation and snow disappearance date (SDD) between the open and forest. For example, while simulated snowpack lasts longer in the open than the high-density forest at most wet/warm and dry/cold locations by up to 55 days, about 90% of all locations show a longer snow duration in the low-density forest by up to 27 days as compared to the open. Interannual variability in climate can also change the magnitude and direction of canopy impact on snow processes. By comparing model simulations to published field observations, and we also identify conditions that require additional field observations to improve process-scale understanding of forest-snow interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms Underlying Plastocyanin-Cytochrome f Electron Transfer Investigated via Site-Specific Linear and Two-dimensional Infrared Spectroscopy

The goal of this research is to further our understanding of biological electron transfer in photosynthesis through the development and application of new methods for studying proteins with high spatial and temporal detail. Biological electron transfer occurs between metal sites imbedded in proteins where the environment and its motions can be very different from those of normal bulk liquids. Moreover, electron transfer between two proteins typically involves short-lived binding interactions within a highly mobile complex. We have directed our studies at photosynthetic electron transfer proteins plastocyanin and cytochrome f. We have labeled two key ligands to the copper ion of plastocyanin with carbon deuterium probe vibrations that enable their selective analysis by infrared spectroscopy. This analysis has shown that association of plastocyanin with cytochrome f leads to large changes in the bonding between the copper ion and ligands. In addition, the probes have been used to assess the contribution of the protein scaffold of plastocyanin in dictating the copper coordination geometry. We also have made progress to extend our experiments from equilibrium to non-equilibrium studies. The studies help to illuminate how proteins are tuned to control biological electron transfer. A better understanding of electron transfer reactions in natural photosynthesis will bolster efforts to develop artificial systems for energy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of land use change and elevated CO2 on the interannual variations and seasonal cycles of gross primary productivity in China

Climate change, rising CO2 concentration, and land use and land cover change (LULCC) are primary driving forces for terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), but their impacts on the temporal changes in GPP are uncertain. In this study, the effects of the three main factors on the interannual variation (IAV) and seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of GPP in China were investigated using 12 terrestrial biosphere models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project. The simulated ensemble mean value of China's GPP between 1981 and 2010, driven by common climate forcing, LULCC and CO2 data, was found to be 7.4±1.8 Pg C/yr. In general, climate was the dominant control factor of the annual trends, IAV and seasonality of China's GPP. The overall rising CO2 led to enhanced plant photosynthesis, thus increasing annual mean and IAV of China's total GPP, especially in northeastern and southern China, where vegetation is dense. LULCC decreased the IAV of China's total GPP by ∼7 %, whereas rising CO2 induced an increase of 8 %. Compared to climate change and elevated CO2, LULCC showed less contributions to GPP's temporal variation, and its impact acted locally, mainly in southwestern China. Furthermore, this study also examined subregional contributions to the temporal changes in China's total GPP. Southern and southeastern China showed higher contributions to China's annual GPP, whereas southwestern and central parts of China explained larger fractions of the IAV in China's GPP.

land use change↗

Asynchronous space–time domain decomposition method with localized uncertainty quantification

The computational cost associated with uncertainty quantification of engineering problems featuring localized phenomenon can be reduced by confining the random variability of the model parameters within a region of interest. Here in this case, a localized treatment of mesh and time resolutions is required to capture the effect of the confined material uncertainty on the global response. We present a computational approach for localized uncertainty quantification with the capability of asynchronous treatment of mesh and time resolutions. In particular, we allow each subdomain to have its local uncertainty representation and the corresponding mesh and time resolutions. As a result, computing resources can be directed toward a small region of interest where a model with high spatial and temporal resolutions is required. To verify the numerical implementation, we consider elastic wave propagation in an axially loaded beam. Moreover, we perform convergence studies with respect to the spatial and temporal discretizations as well as the size of an uncertain subdomain. A projectile impacting a composite sandwich plate is considered as an engineering application for the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Authoring, Analyzing, and Monitoring Requirements for a Lift-Plus-Cruise Aircraft

Requirements specification and analysis is widely applied to ensure the correctness of industrial systems in safety critical domains. Requirements are often initially written in natural language, which is highly ambiguous, and as a second step transformed into a language with rigorous semantics for formal analysis. [Question/problem] In this paper, we report on our experience in requirements creation and analysis, as well as run-time monitor generation using the Formal Requirement Elicitation Tool (FRET), on an industrial case study for a Lift-Plus-Cruise concept aircraft. [Principal ideas/results] We study the creation of requirements directly in the structured language of FRET without a prior definition of the same requirements in natural language. We focus on requirements describing state machines and discuss the challenges that we faced, in terms of creating requirements and generating monitors. We demonstrate how realizability, i.e., checking whether a requirements specification can be implemented, is crucial for understanding temporal interdependencies among requirements. [Contribution] Our study is the first complete attempt at using FRET to create industrial, realizable requirements and generate run-time monitors. Insight from lessons learned was materialized into new features in the FRET and JKind analysis frameworks.

Requirements engineering↗

Satellite Data Reveals a Recent Increase in Shifting Cultivation and Associated Carbon Emissions in Laos

Although shifting cultivation is the major land use type in Laos, the spatial-temporal patterns and the associated carbon emissions of shifting cultivation in Laos are largely unknown. This study provides a nationwide analysis of the spatial-temporal patterns of shifting cultivation and estimations of the associated carbon emissions in Laos over the last three decades. This study found that shifting cultivation has been expanding and intensifying in Laos, especially in the last five years. The newly cultivated land from 2016-2020 accounted for 4.5% (±1.2%) of the total land area of Laos. Furthermore, the length of fallow periods has been continuously declining, indicating that shifting cultivation is becoming increasingly intensive. Combining biomass derived from GEDI (Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation) and shifting cultivation maps and area estimates, we found that the net carbon emissions from shifting cultivation declined in 2001-2015 but increased in 2016-2020. The largest carbon source is conversion from intact forests to shifting cultivation, which contributed to 89% of the total emissions from 2001 to 2020. In addition, there were increased emissions from intensified use of fallow land. This research provides useful information for policymakers in Laos to understand the changes in shifting cultivation and improve land use management. This study not only supports REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) reporting for Laos but also provides a methodology for tracking carbon emissions and removals of shifting cultivation.

Shifting cultivation↗

Development of High-Resolution Soil Hydraulic Parameters with Use of Earth Observations for Enhancing Root Zone Soil Moisture Product

Regional quantification of energy and water balance fluxes depends inevitably on the estimation of surface and rootzone soil moisture. The simulation of soil moisture depends on the soil retention characteristics, which are difficult to estimate at a regional scale. Thus, the present study proposes a new method to estimate high-resolution Soil Hydraulic Parameters (SHPs) which in turn help to provide high-resolution (spatial and temporal) rootzone soil moisture (RZSM) products. The study is divided into three phases—(I) involves the estimation of finer surface soil moisture (1 km) from the coarse resolution satellite soil moisture. The algorithm utilizes MODIS 1 km Land Surface Temperature (LST) and 1 km Normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI) for downscaling 25 km C-band derived soil moisture from AMSR-2 to 1 km surface soil moisture product. At one of the test sites, soil moisture is continuously monitored at 5, 20, and 50 cm depth, while at 44 test sites data were collected randomly for validation. The temporal and spatial correlation for the downscaled product was 70% and 83%, respectively. (II) In the second phase, downscaled soil moisture product is utilized to inversely estimate the SHPs for the van Genuchten model (1980) at 1 km resolution. The numerical experiments were conducted to understand the impact of homogeneous SHPs as compared to the three-layered parameterization of the soil profile. It was seen that the SHPs estimated using the downscaled soil moisture (I-d experiment) performed with similar efficiency as compared to SHPs estimated from the in-situ soil moisture data (I-b experiment) in simulating the soil moisture. The normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) for the two treatments was 0.37 and 0.34, respectively. It was also noted that nRMSE for the treatment with the utilization of default SHPs (I-a) and AMSR-2 soil moisture (I-c) were found to be 0.50 and 0.43, respectively. (III) Finally, the derived SHPs were used to simulate both surface soil moisture and RZSM. The final product, RZSM which is the daily 1 km product also showed a nearly 80% correlation at the test site. The estimated SHPs are seen to improve the mean NSE from 0.10 (I-a experiment) to 0.50 (I-d experiment) for the surface soil moisture simulation. The mean nRMSE for the same was found to improve from 0.50 to 0.31.

soil moisture downscaling↗

Learning View-Invariant Features for Person Identification in Temporally Synchronized Videos Taken by Wearable Cameras

In this paper, we study the problem of Cross-View Person Identification (CVPI), which aims at identifying the same person from temporally synchronized videos taken by different wearable cameras. Our basic idea is to utilize the human motion consistency for CVPI, where human motion can be computed by optical flow. However, optical flow is view-variant - the same person's optical flow in different videos can be very different due to view angle change. In this paper, we attempt to utilize 3D human-skeleton sequences to learn a model that can extract view-invariant motion features from optical flows in different views. For this purpose, we use 3D Mocap database to build a synthetic optical flow dataset and train a Triplet Network (TN) consisting of three sub-networks: two for optical flow sequences from different views and one for the underlying 3D Mocap skeleton sequence. Finally, sub-networks for optical flows are used to extract view-invariant features for CVPI. Experimental results show that, using only the motion information, the proposed method can achieve comparable performance with the state-of-the-art methods. Further combination of the proposed method with an appearance-based method achieves new state-of-the-art performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Timing Value of Marine Renewable Energy Resources for Potential Grid Applications

In this paper, the applicability of marine renewable energy for potential grid applications is presented. We show that many of the unique value streams from marine-based electricity generation stem from their inherent temporal characteristics, especially when compared to wind and solar. Specifically, in this work, we evaluate the timing value for three types of marine energy resources - (a) tidal (b) wave and (c) ocean currents. Firstly, through a suite of novel metrics such as resource availability, persistence and versatility, we evaluate the temporal value characteristics of these resources. Secondly, through a more grid-oriented numerical study, we comment on the potential ramifications of those temporal characteristics in context of energy balancing and effective load carrying capability, for one marine-based resource i.e. wave. Subsequently, we further our understanding of the relative advantages which may be leveraged by operating wave-based generation resources in tandem with more established renewable choices, such as solar and wind. Our results indicate that compared to wind and solar, marine energy resources are consistently more available and persistent on an hourly level, throughout an entire year of operation. In addition to this, wave resources are also seen to reduce both the magnitudes and the degree of volatility in balancing requirements within the power system. Our work not only focuses on sites specific to the Unites States (US), but also includes a parallel study for a location in Great Britain (GB). Results are found to be consistent for sites in both the US and GB, implying that the grid benefits discussed in this work could apply to a number of locations globally.

Bhattacharya, Saptarshi↗

Experiment Design and Visualization Techniques for an X-59 Low-boom Variability Study

This presentation outlines the design of experiments approach and data visualization techniques for a simulation study of sonic booms from NASA’s X-59 supersonic aircraft. The X-59 will soon be flown over communities across the contiguous USA as it produces a low-loudness sonic boom, or low-boom. Survey data on human perception of low-booms will be collected to support development of potential future commercial supersonic aircraft noise regulatory standards. The macroscopic atmosphere plays a critical role in the loudness of sonic booms. The extensive sonic boom simulation study presented herein was completed to assess climatological, geographical, and seasonal effects on the variability of the X-59’s low-boom loudness and noise exposure region size in order to inform X-59 community test planning. The loudness and extent of the noise exposure region make up the “sonic boom carpet.” Two spatial and temporal resolutions of atmospheric input data to the simulation were investigated. A Fast Flexible Space-Filling Design was used to select the locations across the USA for the two spatial resolutions. Analysis of simulated X-59 low-boom loudness data within a regional subset of the northeast USA was completed using a bootstrap forest to determine the final spatial and temporal resolution of the countrywide simulation study. Atmospheric profiles from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used to generate over one million simulated X-59 carpets at the final selected 138 locations across the USA. Effects of aircraft heading, season, geography, and climate zone on low-boom levels and noise exposure region size were analyzed. Models were developed to estimate loudness metrics throughout the USA for X-59 supersonic cruise overflight, and results were visualized on maps to show geographical and seasonal trends. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗