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At least 613 records · Page 34

Integrating multi-modal remote sensing, deep learning, and attention mechanisms for yield prediction in plant breeding experiments

In both plant breeding and crop management, interpretability plays a crucial role in instilling trust in AI-driven approaches and enabling the provision of actionable insights. The primary objective of this research is to explore and evaluate the potential contributions of deep learning network architectures that employ stacked LSTM for end-of-season maize grain yield prediction. A secondary aim is to expand the capabilities of these networks by adapting them to better accommodate and leverage the multi-modality properties of remote sensing data. In this study, a multi-modal deep learning architecture that assimilates inputs from heterogeneous data streams, including high-resolution hyperspectral imagery, LiDAR point clouds, and environmental data, is proposed to forecast maize crop yields. The architecture includes attention mechanisms that assign varying levels of importance to different modalities and temporal features that, reflect the dynamics of plant growth and environmental interactions. The interpretability of the attention weights is investigated in multi-modal networks that seek to both improve predictions and attribute crop yield outcomes to genetic and environmental variables. This approach also contributes to increased interpretability of the model's predictions. The temporal attention weight distributions highlighted relevant factors and critical growth stages that contribute to the predictions. The results of this study affirm that the attention weights are consistent with recognized biological growth stages, thereby substantiating the network's capability to learn biologically interpretable features. Accuracies of the model's predictions of yield ranged from 0.82-0.93 R 2 ref in this genetics-focused study, further highlighting the potential of attention-based models. Further, this research facilitates understanding of how multi-modality remote sensing aligns with the physiological stages of maize. The proposed architecture shows promise in improving predictions and offering interpretable insights into the factors affecting maize crop yields, while demonstrating the impact of data collection by different modalities through the growing season. By identifying relevant factors and critical growth stages, the model's attention weights provide valuable information that can be used in both plant breeding and crop management. The consistency of attention weights with biological growth stages reinforces the potential of deep learning networks in agricultural applications, particularly in leveraging remote sensing data for yield prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the use of hyperspectral and LiDAR UAV time series data for explaining/interpreting plant growth stages within deep learning networks and forecasting plot-level maize grain yield using late fusion modalities with attention mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Simulation of High-Frequency Solar Irradiance

As the use of solar power as a source of electricity is increasing, so is the interest in modeling radiation at high temporal resolutions. High-dimensional remote sensing data products depend on cloud cover variability, atmosphere aerosol levels, and other atmospheric parameters. Because of weather fronts and aerosols, it is difficult to quantify solar power variability based on distributed solar networks. The global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component in the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at a 30-min time resolution. The algorithm proposed in this paper produces 1-min-resolution GHI samples at locations where NSRDB data are available. The synthetic irradiance datasets are produced using log-additive non-Gaussian mixture models and resampling techniques. The model is trained over historical data, and predicted values are compared with in situ data. This approach allows for estimating the solar irradiance at subhourly temporal resolutions, while featuring variability for locations where measurements are otherwise not available.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The effect of along-front temperature variation in a two-dimensional primitive equation model of a surface frontogenesis

The effects of along-front temperature variations on the structure and evolution of surface fronts are investigated using a two-dimensional frontogenesis model. The formulation and characteristics of the confluence-horizontal shear model are described. The structures of three frontal zones forced by confluence and characterized by zero, negative, and positive along-front potential temperature variations are analyzed; particular attention is given to the ageostrophic vertical circulation and their forcings. The temporal evolution of the model frontal zones is examined in terms of the low-level maxima of vorticity, cross-front potential temperature gradient, and convergence. The kinematic and dynamic processes influencing the frontogenesis are discussed. It is noted that the two-dimensional model is applicable to the study of the dynamical properties of frontogenesis.

Keyser, Daniel↗

Adaptable state based control system

An autonomous controller, comprised of a state knowledge manager, a control executor, hardware proxies and a statistical estimator collaborates with a goal elaborator, with which it shares common models of the behavior of the system and the controller. The elaborator uses the common models to generate from temporally indeterminate sets of goals, executable goals to be executed by the controller. The controller may be updated to operate in a different system or environment than that for which it was originally designed by the replacement of shared statistical models and by the instantiation of a new set of state variable objects derived from a state variable class. The adaptation of the controller does not require substantial modification of the goal elaborator for its application to the new system or environment.

Rasmussen, Robert D.↗

Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic

In this study, we investigate how the regional climate model HIRHAM5 reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of Arctic snowfall when compared to CloudSat satellite observations during the examined period of 2007–2010. For this purpose, both approaches, i.e., the assessments of the surface snowfall rate (observation-to-model) and the radar reflectivity factor profiles (model-to-observation), are carried out considering spatial and temporal sampling differences. The HIRHAM5 model, which is constrained in its synoptic representation by nudging to ERA-Interim, represents the snowfall in the Arctic region well in comparison to CloudSat products. The spatial distribution of the snowfall patterns is similar in both identifying the southeastern coast of Greenland and the North Atlantic corridor as regions gaining more than twice as much snowfall as the Arctic average, defined here for latitudes between 66 and 81°N. Excellent agreement (difference less than 1%) in the Arctic-averaged annual snowfall rate between HIRHAM5 and CloudSat is found, whereas ERA-Interim reanalysis shows an underestimation of 45% and significant deficits in the representation of the snowfall rate distribution. From the spatial analysis, it can be seen that the largest differences in the mean annual snowfall rates are an overestimation near the coastlines of Greenland and other regions with large orographic variations as well as an underestimation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. To a large extent, the differences can be explained by clutter contamination, blind zone or higher resolution of CloudSat measurements, but clearly HIRHAM5 overestimates the orographic-driven precipitation. The underestimation of HIRHAM5 within the North Atlantic corridor south of Svalbard is likely connected to a poor description of the marine cold air outbreaks which could be identified by separating snowfall into different circulation weather type regimes. By simulating the radar reflectivity factor profiles from HIRHAM5 utilizing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) forward-modeling operator, the contribution of individual hydrometeor types can be assessed. Looking at a latitude band at 72–73°N, snow can be identified as the hydrometeor type dominating radar reflectivity factor values across all seasons. The largest differences between the observed and simulated reflectivity factor values are related to the contribution of cloud ice particles, which is underestimated in the model, most likely due to the small sizes of the particles. The model-to-observation approach offers a promising diagnostic when improving cloud schemes, as illustrated by comparison of different schemes available for HIRHAM5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrostatic charging of electrically active spacecraft

A model is presented which predicts the temporal behavior of the ionospheric charging of spacecraft which eject energetic positive ions. The dynamic interaction of the spacecraft with the space-plasma environment is modelled as an equivalent electrical circuit consisting of a variable capacitor in parallel with two current sources. The spacecraft/space-plasma sheath is modelled as a variable capacitor containing positive-ion space charge. The ejection of energetic positive ions from the spacecraft represents a current source which charges the capacitor. Return current collected from the space-plasma sheath to the spacecraft is modelled as a variable current source which discharges the capacitor. The model can predict the temporal behavior of sheath movement, spacecraft potential, and space-plasma return current for a wide range of altitude, duty cycle, and ejected positive-ion current. Experimentally measured charging results, obtained for the Satellite Positive Ion Beam System (SPIBS) rocket flight, are accurately predicted by the model. Anticipated vehicle charging levels are presented for neutral-particle-beam platforms operating with a net, unneutralized, positive-ion-current component present in the emitted neutral-particle beam.

Matossian, J. N.↗

Testing the Accuracy of Data-driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are “data-driven” at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus our investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hr can be modeled by the data-driving method with only ∼1% error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Testing the Accuracy of Data-Driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are "data-driven" at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus our investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hours can be modeled by the data-driving method with only approximately 1 percent error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.

Leake, James E.↗

APRES Prototype Mission Planner System Demonstration

Activity Planning with Resources for the Exploration of Space (APRES) is a mixed-initiative mission planning system for ground operations. APRES has been designed to support multi-spacecraft missions. The APRES Interface is browser-based and includes a plan editor, a timeline plan display, a temporal constraint editor, display of the state and numeric chronicles, and a violation resolution manager. Automation support is supplied by the APRES Service, which includes components that provide the following capabilities:(1) plan simulation, which determines the state and numeric chronicles (values of the model variables over time) and determines when "processes" are triggered and terminated based on world states in the execution trace, (2) violation detection of constraints and flight rules encoded in the domain model, and of the temporal constraints created by the user, (3) violation resolution suggestions as to how to fix the plan's violations via rescheduling. The user controls when and how to utilize the automation support. Demo video included with paper, runtime 8:54 in color with sound.

John L. Bresina↗

Robust Rapid Cellular Metabolite Sensing Using Benchtop NMR and SABRE-Hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]Pyruvate

Hyperpolarized NMR has emerged as a powerful analytical technique to significantly enhance targeted NMR signals, improving the sensitivity for investigations of unique chemical and biological dynamics. Here, we demonstrate the use of a hyperpolarization strategy based on Signal Amplification By Reversible Exchange (SABRE) to generate highly reproducible doses of a hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]pyruvate probe for benchtop characterization of yeast metabolism. This method allows rapid, scalable, and benchtop preparation of biocompatible hyperpolarized solutions suitable for live-cell experiments. We show that this production can be dove-tailed into a modular, compact workflow to characterize real-time metabolism in cell cultures, using Saccharomyces cerevisiae (Baker’s yeast) as a model organism. With high temporal resolution, we show that this method can resolve the conversion of hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]pyruvate into oxidative decarboxylation products CO 2 and bicarbonate. This conversion exhibits sustained and detectable metabolic activity for over 300 s after introduction of the agent to the cells. We model the metabolite kinetics to show decarboxylation activity and derive estimates of the pH over time from the CO 2 and bicarbonate (carbonic acid buffer system) equilibrium to probe changes in the cellular environment during active metabolism. These results highlight the utility of benchtop SABRE-hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]pyruvate as a scalable, specific probe for metabolic phenotyping of living cells using compact, low-cost instrumentation well-suited for future high-throughput applications across microbial engineering, drug response profiling, and dynamic metabolic screening.

fungi↗

MO-E-17A-02: Incorporation of Contrast Medium Dynamics in Anthropomorphic Phantoms: The Advent of 5D XCAT Models

Purpose: To develop a unique method to incorporate the dynamics of contrast-medium propagation into the anthropomorphic phantom, to generate a five-dimensional (5D) patient model for multimodality imaging studies. Methods: A compartmental model of blood circulation network within the body was embodied into an extended cardiac-torso (4D-XCAT) patient model. To do so, a computational physiologic model of the human cardiovascular system was developed which includes a series of compartments representing heart, vessels, and organs. Patient-specific cardiac output and blood volume were used as inputs influenced by the weight, height, age, and gender of the patient's model. For a given injection protocol and given XCAT model, the contrast-medium transmission within the body was described by a series of mass balance differential equations, the solutions to which provided the contrast enhancement-time curves for each organ; thereby defining the tissue materials including the contrastmedium within the XCAT model. A library of time-dependent organ materials was then defined. Each organ in each voxelized 4D-XCAT phantom was assigned to a corresponding time-varying material to create the 5D-XCAT phantom in which the fifth dimension is blood/contrast-medium within the temporal domain. Results: The model effectively predicts the time-varying concentration behavior of various contrast-medium administration in each organ for different patient models as function of patient size (weight/height) and different injection protocol factors (injection rate and pattern, iodine concentration or volume). The contrast enhanced XCAT patient models was developed based on the concentration of iodine as a function of time after injection. Conclusion: Majority of medical imaging systems take advantage of contrast-medium administration in terms of better image quality, the effect of which was ignored in previous optimization studies. The study enables a comprehensive optimization of contrast administration both in terms of image quality and radiation dose, and can be used in different modalities such as CT, MRI, and ultrasound.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A non-invasive approach to study lifetime exposure and bioaccumulation of PCBs in protected marine mammals: PBPK modeling in harbor porpoises

In the last decade, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have increasingly been developed to explain the kinetics of environmental pollutants in wildlife. For marine mammals specifically, these models provide a new, non-destructive tool that enables the integration of biomonitoring activities and in vitro studies. The goals of the present study were firstly to develop PBPK models for several environmental relevant PCB congeners in harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), a species that is sensitive to pollution because of its limited metabolic capacity for pollutant transformation. These models were tested using tissue data of porpoises from the Black Sea. Secondly, the predictive power of the models was investigated for time trends in the PCB concentrations in North Sea harbor porpoises between 1990 and 2008. Thirdly, attempts were made to assess metabolic capacities of harbor porpoises for the investigated PCBs. In general, results show that parameter values from other species (rodents, humans) are not always suitable in marine mammal models, most probably due to differences in physiology and exposure. The PCB 149 levels decrease the fastest in male harbor porpoises from the North Sea in a time period of 18 years, whereas the PCB 101 levels decrease the slowest. According to the models, metabolic breakdown of PCB 118 is probably of lesser importance compared to other elimination pathways. For PCB 101 and 149 however, the presence of their metabolites can be attributed to bioaccumulation of metabolites from the prey and to metabolic breakdown of the parent compounds in the harbor porpoises. - Highlights: > PBPK modeling was used to study the kinetics of several PCBs in a marine mammal. > Harbor porpoises are sensitive to pollution and therefore ideal model organisms. > Black Sea data were used for parameterization. > North Sea data for assessing temporal trends (1990-2008). > PBPK modeling is a non-invasive and non-destructive tool.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep Learning Scene Classification Experiments in Automatic Detection of Slums on Planetscope Imagery

Population growth is increasingly happening in slum settlements of the large urban centers in the Global South. The term "slum" encompasses a wide range of communities, located mostly in underserved areas, and often exhibiting distinct structural and functional informalities with a relatively high concentration of marginalized populations. To address the issues confronting slums for effective planning and development, including the realistic estimation of the resident population, identifying them accurately is fundamental. Given the disagreements over a universal definition, diverse characteristic features, and socio-political limitations, global detection of slums is a veritable challenge. In this paper, we present experiments in slum detection using a scene classification algorithm and 3-meter spatial resolution satellite imagery. We train and evaluate the model for slum detection in Mumbai, India for the year 2023 and test the temporal generalization of the trained model on Mumbai in 2020 and 2018. In addition, we explore the pathways toward geographic generalization to Kolkata and Delhi (India). We discuss several limitations in the workflow and model, situate our findings in the existing literature, and suggest improvements and alternatives. With this, we establish baseline methods and experiments as a first step towards developing an image-based global slum detection framework and algorithm. This work adds to the community discussion on methods, data challenges, and open questions related to the detection of slums globally. With this research, we hope to improve our understanding of human settlements, especially in critical areas, improve population estimates, and help measure progress towards the sustainable development goals.

Arndt, Jacob↗

Quantitative representation of nonrepetitive temporal behavior

Analytical representations suitable to analyze the nonrepetitive pulse-like temporal behavior of physical quantities are derived. The representation utilizes solutions of a linear model equation in which the temporal variation is subject to time-dependent driving and dissipative forces. The property of solutions is described, and it is shown that such representations can provide a basis for quantitative comparisons of behaviors and a basis for physically meaningful interpretations of the results. Observations of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux have been analyzed with this method.

Nakagawa, Y.↗

Unsupervised machine learning based on non-negative tensor factorization for analyzing reactive-mixing

Analysis of reactive-diffusion simulations representing complex mixing processes requires a large number of independent model runs. For each high-fidelity model simulation, the model inputs are varied and the predicted mixing behavior is represented by temporal and spatial changes in species concentration. It is then required to discern how the model inputs (such as diffusivity, dispersion, anisotropy, and velocity field properties) impact the mixing process. This task is challenging and typically involves interpretation of large model outputs representing temporal and spatial changes of species concentration within the model domain. Yet, the task can be automated and substantially simplified by applying Machine Learning (ML) methods. Here, we present an application of an unsupervised ML method (called NTF k ) using Non-negative Tensor Factorization (NTF) coupled with a custom clustering procedure based on k-means to reveal the temporal and spatial features in product concentrations. An attractive and unique aspect of the proposed ML method is that it ensures the extracted features are non-negative, which is important to obtain a meaningful deconstruction of the mixing processes. The ML methodology is applied to a large set of high-resolution finite-element model simulations representing anisotropic reaction-diffusion processes in perturbed vortex-based velocity fields. The applied finite-element method ensures that spatial and temporal species concentration are always non-negative, even in the case of high anisotropic contrasts. The simulated reaction is a fast irreversible bimolecular reaction A+B→C , where species A and B react to form species C. The reactive-diffusion model input parameters that control mixing include properties of the velocity field (such as vortex structures), anisotropic dispersion, and molecular diffusion. We demonstrate the applicability of the ML feature extraction method to produce a meaningful deconstruction of model outputs to discriminate between different physical processes impacting the reactants, their mixing, and the spatial distribution of the product C. The introduced ML analysis allowed us to identify additive temporal and spatial features that characterize mixing behavior. The application of the proposed NTF k approach is not limited to reactive-mixing. NTFk can be readily applied to any observed or simulated datasets that can be represented as tensors (multi-dimensional arrays) and have separable latent signatures or features.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework

In the process of calibrating distributed hydrological models, accounting for input uncertainty is important, yet challenging. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model to estimate parameters associated with a geomorphology‐based hydrological model (GBHM). The GBHM model uses geomorphic characteristics to simplify model structure and physically based methods to represent hydrological processes. We divide the observed discharge into low‐ and high‐flow data, and use the first‐order autoregressive model to describe their temporal dependence. We consider relative errors in rainfall as spatially distributed variables and estimate them jointly with the GBHM parameters. The joint posterior probability distribution is explored using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which include Metropolis‐Hastings, delay rejection adaptive Metropolis, and Gibbs sampling methods. We evaluate the Bayesian model using both synthetic and field data sets. The synthetic case study demonstrates that the developed method generally is effective in calibrating GBHM parameters and in estimating their associated uncertainty. The calibration ignoring input errors has lower accuracy and lower reliability compared to the calibration that includes estimation of the input errors, especially under model structure uncertainty. The field case study shows that calibration of GBHM parameters under complex field conditions remains a challenge. Although jointly estimating input errors and GBHM parameters improves the continuous ranked probability score and the consistency of the predictive distribution with the observed data, the improvement is incremental. To better calibrate parameters in a distributed model, such as GBHM here, we need to develop a more complex model and incorporate much more information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance analysis and comparison of data-driven models for predicting indoor temperature in multi-zone commercial buildings

Building thermal models, which characterize the properties of a building’s envelope and thermal mass, are essential for accurate indoor temperature and cooling/heating demand prediction. Because of their flexibility and ease of use, data-driven models are increasingly used. Here, this study compared and analyzed the performance of gray-box (resistance-capacitance) and black-box (recurrent neural network) models for predicting indoor air temperature in a real multi-zone commercial building. The developed resistance-capacitance model served as a benchmark model for which full sets of temporal data and building information were used as inputs. The recurrent neural network models were trained and tested assuming various available types and amounts of temporal data and known building physical information to investigate the effects of data and information availability. Feature importance analysis was conducted to select the key variables for different prediction targets under different scenarios. This research provides guidance in selecting an appropriate building thermal response modeling method based on the measured data availability, building physical information, and application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Physics-Based Constraints in the Forward Modeling Analysis of Time-Correlated Image Data (Long Version)

The forward-model approach has been shown to produce accurate model reconstructions of scientific measurements for single-time image data. Here we extend the approach to a series of images that are correlated in time using the physics-based constraints that are often available with scientific imaging. The constraints are implemented through a representational bias in the model and, owing to the smooth nature of the physics evolution in the specified model, provide an effective temporal regularization. Unlike more general temporal regularization techniques, this restricts the space of solutions to those that are physically realizable. We explore the performance of this approach on a simple radiographic imaging problem of a simulated object evolving in time. We demonstrate that the constrained simultaneous analysis of the image sequence outperforms the independent forward modeling analysis over a range of degrees of freedom in the physics constraints, including when the physics model is under-constrained. Further, this approach outperforms the independent analysis over a large range of signal-to-noise ratios.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗