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NASA NTRS1995

Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

Skiles, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Chebyshev Collocation Method for Moving Boundaries, Heat Transfer, and Convection During Directional Solidification

Free and moving boundary problems require the simultaneous solution of unknown field variables and the boundaries of the domains on which these variables are defined. There are many technologically important processes that lead to moving boundary problems associated with fluid surfaces and solid-fluid boundaries. These include crystal growth, metal alloy and glass solidification, melting and name propagation. The directional solidification of semi-conductor crystals by the Bridgman-Stockbarger method is a typical example of such a complex process. A numerical model of this growth method must solve the appropriate heat, mass and momentum transfer equations and determine the location of the melt-solid interface. In this work, a Chebyshev pseudospectra collocation method is adapted to the problem of directional solidification. Implementation involves a solution algorithm that combines domain decomposition, finite-difference preconditioned conjugate minimum residual method and a Picard type iterative scheme.

Zhang, Yiqiang↗

NASA NTRS1998

Study of Magnetic Structure in the Solar Photosphere and Chromosphere

This grant funded an observational and theoretical program to study the structure and dynamics of the solar photosphere and low chromosphere, and the spectral signatures that result. The overall goal is to learn about mechanisms that cause heating of the overlying atmosphere, and produce variability of solar emission in spectral regions important for astrophysics and space physics. The program exploited two new ground-based observational capabilities: one using the Swedish Solar Telescope on La Palma for very high angular resolution observations of the photospheric intensity field (granulation) and proxies of the magnetic field (G-band images); and the other using the Near Infrared Magnetograph at the McMath-Pierce Solar Facility to map the spatial variation and dynamic behavior of the solar temperature minimum region using infrared CO lines. We have interpreted these data using a variety of theoretical and modelling approaches, some developed especially for this project. Previous annual reports cover the work done up to 31 May 1997. This final report summarizes our work for the entire period, including the period of no-cost extension from 1 June 1997 through September 30 1997. In Section 2 we discuss observations and modelling of the photospheric flowfields and their consequences for heating of the overlying atmosphere, and in Section 3 we discuss imaging spectroscopy of the CO lines at 4.67 mu.

Noyes, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Comparative Planetary Mineralogy: Co, Ni Systematics in Chromite from Planetary Basalts

Spinel is a minor but important phase in planetary basalts because its variable composition often reflects basalt petrogenesis. For example, complicated zoning trends in spinel can give clues to melt evolution [1], and V concentrations in chromite lend insight into magma oxygen fugacity (fO2) conditions [2]. Nickel and Co are two elements that are commonly used as a measure of melt fractionation, and their partitioning between olivine and melt is fairly well understood. Less clear is their partitioning into spinel, although [3] has explored Ni and Co systematics in experimental charges. This study documents Ni and Co behavior in early crystallizing spinel (chromite) from several planetary basalts in an attempt to compare our results with [3], and also gain insight into basalt evolution on the three planets.

Karner, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Variable-Speed Simulation of a Dual-Clutch Gearbox Tiltrotor Driveline

This investigation explores the variable-speed operation and shift response of a prototypical two-speed dual-clutch transmission tiltrotor driveline in forward flight. Here, a Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion System Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed under a NASA funded NRA program is utilized to simulate the drive system dynamics. In this study, a sequential shifting control strategy is analyzed under a steady forward cruise condition. This investigation attempts to build upon previous variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion studies by 1) including a fully nonlinear transient gas-turbine engine model, 2) including clutch stick-slip friction effects, 3) including shaft flexibility, 4) incorporating a basic flight dynamics model to account for interactions with the flight control system. Through exploring the interactions between the various subsystems, this analysis provides important insights into the continuing development of variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion systems.

DeSmidt, Hans↗

NASA NTRS2012

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗

NASA NTRS2018

Ocean Circulation Causes Strong Variability in the Mid-Atlantic Bight Nitrogen Budget

Understanding of nitrogen cycling on continental shelves, a critical component of global nutrient cycling, is hampered by limited observations compared to the strong variability on a wide range of time and space scales. Numerical models have the potential to partially alleviate this issue by filling spatio-temporal data gaps and hence resolving annual area-integrated nutrient fluxes. In this study, a three-dimensional bio geo chemical-circulation model was implemented to simulate the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) nitrogen budget. Model results demonstrate that, on average, MAB net community production (NCP) was positive (plus 0.27 teragrams (Tg) Nitrogen per year), indicating net autotrophy. Inter-annual variability in NCP was strong, with annual values ranging between 0.19 and 0.41 Tg N/year. Along-shelf and across-shelf horizontal transport fluxes were the other dominant terms in the nitrogen budget and were primarily responsible for this NCP variability. The along-shelf current transported nitrogen from the north (0.65 Tg N/year) into the MAB, supplementing the nitrogen entering from terrestrial inputs (0.27 Tg N/year). However, NCP was highest in the year when total water volume transport and inorganic nitrogen input was strongest across the continental slope in the southern MAB, rather than when terrestrial inputs were greatest. Inter-annual variability of NCP appears to be linked to changes in the positions of the Gulf Stream and Slope Water Gyre. Overall, the strong spatio temporal variability of the nitrogen fluxes highlights the importance of observations throughout all seasons and multiple years in order to accurately resolve the current status and future changes of the MAB nitrogen budget.

Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Thermal History Mapping Technology for Turbine Engine Diagnostics

The infusion of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in next generation gas turbines represents daunting challenges as the failure of protective coating, known as Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC), means little remnant life of CMC components. Consequently reliable lifing is critical to the success of CMC components. Accurate thermal mapping of EBC in rig and engine test is of paramount importance because temperature is the most critical variable for EBC life. Current temperature measurement technologies include thermocouples, pyrometers, IR cameras, and thermal paints. Thermocouples require a passage to access the components and pyrometers and IR cameras require line-of-sight. Thermal paints are based on color-sensitive pigments that visually indicate the temperature that a component experienced. Thermal paints do not require line-of-sight, however, they have a low resolution and a limited temperature capability (~1400°C). Thermal history coating is based on oxide ceramic which luminesces when excited with a light source. The luminescence changes when the material's structure changes triggered by heat impact. The maximum temperature to which the material was exposed can be determined from the luminescence change. This paper describes the principles of this new technique and demonstrates its capabilities for EBCs exposed to excess of 1500°C.

Lee, Kang N.↗

NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-30053-DND

The 2016-17 Arctic sea ice growth season (October-March) exhibited one of the lowest end-of-season sea ice volume and extent of any year since 1979. An analysis of MERRA2 atmospheric reanalysis data and CERES radiative flux data reveals that a record warm and moist Arctic atmosphere supported the reduced sea ice growth through two pathways. First, numerous regional episodes of increased atmospheric temperature and moisture, transported from lower latitudes, increased the cumulative energy input from downwelling longwave surface fluxes. Second, in those same episodes, the efficiency that the atmosphere cooled radiatively to space was reduced, increasing the amount of energy retained in the Arctic atmosphere and reradiated back toward the surface. Overall, the Arctic radiative cooling efficiency shows a decreasing trend since 2000. The results presented highlight the increasing importance of atmospheric forcing on sea ice variability demonstrating that episodic Arctic atmospheric rivers, regions of elevated poleward water vapor transport, and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice.

Bradley Hegyi↗

NASA NTRS2021

Colorado Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Post-fire Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) Distribution to Inform Management Planning

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a species of concern across the western United States as it has the potential to outcompete native plant species, reduce biodiversity, and diminish nutrient availability for ungulates. Furthermore, because cheatgrass can quickly dominate disturbed landscapes it has the potential to exacerbate wildfire risk by increasing fuel loads. In 2020, the Cameron Peak fire burned more than 200,000 acres on the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests in Colorado. These issues are of imminent concern for our partners at the Forest Service (USFS), as they are tasked with wildfire risk and invasive species mitigation. Disturbances such as wildfires can substantially increase the rate and extent of cheatgrass spread. Current cheatgrass mitigation methods rely on field crews to physically locate cheatgrass on the landscape, which takes time, money, and extensive manpower. Here, we developed two Random Forest models within the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) using remote sensing predictors derived from Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The first model identified suitable cheatgrass habitat while the other detected cheatgrass presence during the 2021 growing season. Topographic variables were found to be the most important in driving the habitat suitability model. Cheatgrass detection was also found to be possible within a short timespan with limited imagery surrounding a phenological shift of the plant. Maps produced from these models provide natural resource managers the ability to implement early detection and rapid response to prevent the spread of cheatgrass to new locations.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mineral Dust Cycle in the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry Model (Monarch) Version 2.0

We present the dust module in the Multiscale Online Non-hydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (MONARCH) version 2.0, a chemical weather prediction system that can be used for regional and global modeling at a range of resolutions. The representations of dust processes in MONARCH were upgraded with a focus on dust emission (emission parameterizations, entrainment thresholds, considerations of soil moisture and surface cover), lower boundary conditions (roughness, potential dust sources), and dust–radiation interactions. MONARCH now allows modeling of global and regional mineral dust cycles using fundamentally different paradigms, ranging from strongly simplified to physics-based parameterizations. We present a detailed description of these updates along with four global benchmark simulations, which use conceptually different dust emission parameterizations, and we evaluate the simulations against observations of dust optical depth. We determine key dust parameters, such as global annual emission/deposition flux, dust loading, dust optical depth, mass-extinction efficiency, single-scattering albedo, and direct radiative effects. For dust-particle diameters up to 20 µm, the total annual dust emission and deposition fluxes obtained with our four experiments range between about 3500 and 6000 Tg, which largely depend upon differences in the emitted size distribution. Considering ellipsoidal particle shapes and dust refractive indices that account for size-resolved mineralogy, we estimate the global total (longwave and shortwave) dust direct radiative effect (DRE) at the surface to range between about −0.90 and −0.63 W m−2 and at the top of the atmosphere between −0.20 and −0.28 W m−2. Our evaluation demonstrates that MONARCH is able to reproduce key features of the spatiotemporal variability of the global dust cycle with important and insightful differences between the different configurations.

Dust cycle↗

NASA NTRS2022

Assimilation of SMAP Products for Improving Streamflow Simulations over Tropical Climate Region—Is Spatial Information More Important Than Temporal Information?

Streamflow is one of the key variables in the hydrological cycle. Simulation and forecasting of streamflow are challenging tasks for hydrologists, especially in sparsely gauged areas. Coarse spatial resolution remote sensing soil moisture products (equal to or larger than 9 km) are often assimilated into hydrological models to improve streamflow simulation in large catchments. This study uses the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) technique to assimilate SMAP soil moisture products at the coarse spatial resolution of 9 km (SMAP 9 km), and downscaled SMAP soil moisture product at the higher spatial resolution of 1 km (SMAP 1 km), into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the usefulness of different spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed soil moisture products in streamflow simulation and forecasting. The experiment was set up for eight catchments across the tropical climate of Vietnam, with varying catchment areas from 267 to 6430 km^2 during the period 2017–2019. We comprehensively evaluated the EnKF-based SWAT model in simulating streamflow at low, average, and high flow. Our results indicated that high-spatial resolution of downscaled SMAP 1 km is more beneficial in the data assimilation framework in aiding the accuracy of streamflow simulation, as compared to that of SMAP 9 km, especially for the small catchments. Our analysis on the impact of observation resolution also indicates that the improvement in the streamflow simulation with data assimilation is more significant at catchments where downscaled SMAP 1 km has fewer missing observations. This study is helpful for adding more understanding of performances of soil moisture data assimilation based hydrological modelling over the tropical climate region, and exhibits the potential use of remote sensing data assimilation in hydrology.

soil moisture↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Condition Incidence Parameters in the Evidence Library

One approach to quantifying spaceflight risk at NASA makes use event driven probabilistic techniques. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is such a tool that estimates medical risk metrics via simulation and enables optimization of medical resources subject to mission constraints [1]. Previous analyses have informed medical set composition, exercise countermeasures, and water intake, where each analysis quantifies the risk associated with proposed variations in system design. As future mission profiles extend beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and lengthen in duration, understanding these risks and contributing factors is critical. MEDPRAT employs Monte Carlo sampling techniques to simulate missions and track the occurrence of medical events. These events follow fault-tree-like progressions through levels of severity and mitigation via medical treatment to many possible outcomes and these are reported throughout the mission. Making this possible, are the medical databases that contain evidence gathered by the Human Research Program (HRP). Quantifying the impact of uncertainty or variability in the input data is an important step in evaluating the credibility of modeling and simulation results. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of medical risk metrics with respect to the condition incidence parameters within the Evidence Library (EL) [2] as the medical database input for MEDPRAT. The medical conditions, contained in the EL, are equipped with incidence rates that describe the likelihood that the condition will occur. These incidence rates reflect historical spaceflight data or when appropriate, terrestrial data. In this presentation, we will explore how uncertainty in these rates propagate to the medical risk described by MEDPRAT. These results identify the conditions and parameters with the largest contribution to medical risks.

Ian Lim↗

NASA NTRS1992

Estimation of photosynthetic capacity using MODIS polarization: 1988 proposal to NASA Headquarters

The remote sensing community has clearly identified the utility of NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and SR (simple ratio) and other vegetation indices for estimating such metrics of landscape ecology as green foliar biomass, photosynthetic capacity, and net primary production. Both theoretical and empirical investigations have established cause and effect relationships between the photosynthetic process in plant canopies and these combinations of remotely sensed data. Yet it has also been established that the relationships exhibit considerable variability that appears to be ecosystem-dependent and may represent a source of ecologically important information. The overall hypothesis of this proposal is that the ecosystem-dependent variability in the various vegetation indices is in part attributable to the effects of specular reflection. The polarization channels on MODIS provide the potential to estimate this specularly reflected light and allow the modification of the vegetation indices to better measure the photosynthetic process in plant canopies. In addition, these polarization channels potentially provide additional ecologically important information about the plant canopy.

Vanderbilt, Vern C.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Insights Into the Size-Resolved Dust Emission From Field Measurements in the Moroccan Sahara

The particle size distribution (PSD) of mineral dust has a strong effect on the impacts of dust on climate. However, our understanding of the emitted dust PSD, including its variability and the fraction of super-coarse dust (diameter >10 µm), remains limited. Here, we provide new insights into the size-resolved dust emission process based on a field campaign performed in the Moroccan Sahara in September 2019 in the context of the FRontiers in dust minerAloGical coMposition and its Effects upoN climaTe (FRAGMENT) project. The obtained dust concentration and diffusive flux PSDs show significant dependencies upon the friction velocity (u*), wind direction and type of event (regular events versus haboob events). For instance, the number fraction of sub-micrometre particles increases with u*, along with a large decrease in the mass fraction of super-coarse dust. We identify dry deposition, which is modulated by u* and fetch length, as a potential cause for this PSD variability. Using a resistance model constrained with field observations to estimate the dry deposition flux and thereby also the emitted dust flux, we show that deposition could represent up to ∼90 % of the emission of super-coarse particles (>10 µm) and up to ∼65 % of the emission of particles as small as ∼5 µm in diameter. Importantly, removing the deposition component significantly reduces the variability with u* in the PSD of the emitted dust flux compared with the diffusive flux, particularly for super-coarse dust. The differences between regular and haboob event concentration and diffusive flux PSDs are suspected to result from a smaller and variable dust source fetch during the haboob events, and/or an increased resistance of soil aggregates to fragmentation associated with the observed increase in relative humidity along the haboob outflow. Finally, compared to the invariant emitted dust flux PSD estimated based on brittle fragmentation theory, we obtain a substantially higher proportion of super-micrometre particles in the dust flux. Overall, our results suggest that dry deposition needs to be adequately considered to estimate the emitted PSD, even in studies limited to the fine and coarse size ranges (<10 µm).

particle size distribution↗

NASA NTRS1997

Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface variables are predicted imperfectly due to inherent uncertainties in the modeling process, our study suggests how satellite observations can be combined with the model, through land surface data assimilation, to improve their prediction.

Yang, Runhua↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Intraseasonal Air-Sea Exchanges during the 1997 Pacific Warming

The Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) and associated westerly wind (WW) events account for much of the tropical intraseasonal variability (TISV). The TISV has been suggested as an important stochastic forcing that may be one of the underlying causes for the observed irregularities of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent observational studies and theories of interannual to interdecadal-scale variability suggest that ENSO may arise from different mechanisms depending on the basic states. The Pacific warming event of 1997, being associated with a period of strong MJO and WW events, serves as a natural experiment for studying the possible role of TISV in triggering an ENSO event. We have performed a combined statistical and composite analysis of surface WW events based on the assimilated surface wind and sea level pressure for the period of 1980-1993, the SSM/I wind for the period of 1988-1997, and OLR. Results indicates that extratropical forcing contribute significantly to the evolution of MJO and establishment of WW events over the Pacific warm pool. Following the major WW events, there appeared an eastward extension of equatorial warm SST anomalies from the western Pacific warm pool. Such tropical-extratropical interaction is particularly clear in the winter of 96-97 that leads to the recent warming event in 1997/98. From the above discussion, our current study on this subject is based on the hypothesis that 1) there is an enhanced air-sea interaction associated with TISV and the northerly surges from the extratropics in the initial phase of the 97/98 warming event, and 2) the relevant mechanisms are functions of the basic state of the coupled system (in terms of SST distribution and atmospheric mean circulation) that varies at the interannual and interdecadal time scale. We are analyzing the space-time structure of the northerly surges, their association with air-sea fluxes and upper ocean responses during the period of September 1996 to June 1997. The estimate of daily values of latent heat fluxes is based on NSCAT wind, SST, and ECMWF surface air temperature and SSM/I water vapor data (Chou et al. 1997). To understand the relevant mechanisms, we will analyze the origin of the northerly surges in terms of atmospheric instability associated with the extratropical circulation, and the mutual influence between the tropical heating and the extratropical circulation. In this meeting, we will report the analysis addressing the first part of the above hypothesis.

Sui, C.-H.↗