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DOE OSTI2020

Data analysis and modeling pipelines for controlled networked social science experiments

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors. The current practice for social analysts is to develop tailor-made computer programs and analytical scripts for experiments and modeling. This often leads to inefficiencies and duplication of effort. In this work, we propose a pipeline framework to take a significant step towards overcoming these challenges. Our contribution is to describe the design and implementation of a software system to automate many of the steps involved in analyzing social science experimental data, building models to capture the behavior of human subjects, and providing data to test hypotheses. The proposed pipeline framework consists of formal models, formal algorithms, and theoretical models as the basis for the design and implementation. We propose a formal data model, such that if an experiment can be described in terms of this model, then our pipeline software can be used to analyze data efficiently. The merits of the proposed pipeline framework is elaborated by several case studies of networked social science experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Development and Demonstration of a Security Core Component

In recent years, the convergence of a number of trends has resulted in Cyber Security becoming a much greater concern for electric utilities. A short list of these trends includes: · Industrial Control Systems (ICSs) have evolved from depending on proprietary hardware and operating software toward using standard off-the-shelf hardware and operating software. This has meant that these ICSs can no longer depend on “security through obscurity. · Similarly, these same systems have evolved toward using standard communications protocols, further reducing their ability to rely upon obscurity. · The rise of the Internet and the accompanying demand for more data about virtually everything has resulted in formerly isolated ICSs becoming at least partially accessible via Internet-connected networks. · “Cyber crime” has become commonplace, whether it be for industrial espionage, reconnaissance for a possible cyber attack, theft, or because some individual or group “has something to prove.” Electric utility system operators are experts at running the power grid. The reality is, especially at small and mid-sized utilities, these SCADA operators will by default be “on the front line” if and when a cyber attack occurs against their systems. These people are not computer software, networking, or cyber security experts, so they are ill-equipped to deal with a cyber security incident. Cyber Security Manager (CSM) was conceived, designed, and built so that it can be configured to know what a utility’s SCADA/EMS/DMS system looks like under normal conditions. To do this, CSM monitors log messages from any device that uses the syslog standard. It can also monitor a variety of statistics from the computers that make up the SCADA/EMS/DMS: outputs from host-based security tools, intrusion detection systems, SCADA alarms, and real-time SCADA values – even results from a SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) system. When the system deviates from “normal,” CSM can alert the operator in language that they understand that an incident may be occurring, provide actionable intelligence, and informing them what actions to take. These alarms may be viewed on CSM’s built-in user interface, sent to a SCADA alarm list, or communicated via email, phone, pager, or SMS message. In recognition of the fact that “real world” training for cyber security events is impractical, CSM has a built-in Operator Training Simulator capability. This can be used stand alone to create simulated event scenarios for training purposes. It may also be used in conjunction with the recipient’s SCADA/EMS/DMS Operator Training Simulator. In addition to providing cyber security situational awareness for electric utility operators, CSM also provides tools for analysts and support personnel; in fact, the majority of user interface displays are designed for use in analyzing current and past security events. CSM keeps security-related information in long-term storage, as well as writing any decisions it makes to a (syslog) log for use forensic or other post-event analysis.

Turke, Andy↗
DOE OSTI2021

First-Principles Simulations of CuCl in High-Temperature Water Vapor

Experimental data suggest that the solubility of copper in high-temperature water vapor is controlled by the formation of hydrated clusters of the form CuCl(H 2 O) n , where the average number of water molecules in the cluster generally increases with increasing density [Migdisov, A. A.; et al. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta2014, 129, 33–53]. However, the precise nature of these clusters is difficult to probe experimentally. Moreover, there are some discrepancies between experimental estimates of average cluster size and prior simulation work [Mei, Y. Geofluids2018, 2018, 4279124]. Here, we have performed first-principles Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to explore these clusters in finer detail. We find that molecular dynamics is not the most appropriate technique for studying aggregation in vapor phases, even at relatively high temperatures. Specifically, our MD simulations exhibit substantial problems in adequately sampling the equilibrium cluster size distribution. In contrast, MC simulations with specialized cluster moves are able to accurately sample the phase space of hydrogen-bonding vapors. At all densities, we find a stable, slightly distorted linear H 2 O–Cu–Cl structure, which is in agreement with the earlier simulations, surrounded by a variable number of water molecules. The surrounding water molecules do not form a well-defined second solvation shell but rather a loose network of hydrogen-bonded water with molecular CuCl on the outside edge of the water cluster. We also find a broad distribution of hydration numbers, especially at higher densities. In contrast to previous simulation work but in agreement with experimental data, we find that the average hydration number substantially increases with increasing density. Moreover, the value of the hydration number depends on the choice of cluster definition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cell-Edge Detection via Selective Cooperation and Generalized Canonical Correlation

Improving the uplink quality of service for users located around the boundaries between cells is a key challenge in cellular systems. Existing approaches relying on power control throttle the rates of cell-center users, while multi-user detection requires accurate channel estimates for the cell-edge users, which is another challenge due to their low received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Utilizing the fact that cell-edge user signals are weak but common (received at roughly equal power) at different base stations (BSs), this paper establishes a connection between cell-edge user detection and generalized canonical correlation analysis (GCCA). It puts forth a GCCA-based method that leverages selective BS cooperation to recover the cell-edge user signal subspace even at low SNR. The cell-edge user signals can then be extracted from the resulting mixture via algebraic signal processing techniques. The paper includes theoretical analysis showing why GCCA recovers the correct subspace containing the cell-edge user signals under mild conditions. The proposed method can also identify the number of cell-edge users in the system, i.e., the common subspace dimension. Simulations reveal significant performance improvement relative to various multiuser detection techniques. Cell-edge detection performance is further studied as a function of how many / which BSs are selected, and it is shown that using the closest three BS is always the best choice.

base station cooperation↗
DOE OSTI2011

Variably Saturated Flow and Multicomponent Biogeochemical Reactive Transport Modeling of a Uranium Bioremediation Field Experiment

Field experiments at a former uranium mill tailings site have identified the potential for stimulating indigenous bacteria to catalyze the conversion of aqueous uranium in the +6 oxidation state to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. This effectively removes uranium from solution resulting in groundwater concentrations below actionable standards. Three-dimensional, coupled variably-saturated flow and biogeochemical reactive transport modeling of a 2008 in situ uranium bioremediation field experiment is used to better understand the interplay of transport rates and biogeochemical reaction rates that determine the location and magnitude of key reaction products. A comprehensive reaction network, developed largely through previous 1-D modeling studies, was used to simulate the impacts on uranium behavior of pulsed acetate amendment, seasonal water table variation, spatially-variable physical (hydraulic conductivity, porosity) and geochemical (reactive surface area) material properties. A principal challenge is the mechanistic representation of biologically-mediated terminal electron acceptor process (TEAP) reactions whose products significantly alter geochemical controls on uranium mobility through increases in pH, alkalinity, exchangeable cations, and highly reactive reduction products. In general, these simulations of the 2008 Big Rusty acetate biostimulation field experiment in Rifle, Colorado confirmed previously identified behaviors including (1) initial dominance by iron reducing bacteria that concomitantly reduce aqueous U(VI), (2) sulfate reducing bacteria that become dominant after {approx}30 days and outcompete iron reducers for the acetate electron donor, (3) continuing iron-reducer activity and U(VI) bioreduction during dominantly sulfate reducing conditions, and (4) lower apparent U(VI) removal from groundwater during dominantly sulfate reducing conditions. New knowledge on simultaneously active metal and sulfate reducers has been incorporated into the modeling. In this case, an initially small population of slow growing sulfate reducers is active from the initiation of biostimulation. Three-dimensional, variably saturated flow modeling was used to address impacts of a falling water table during acetate injection. These impacts included a significant reduction in aquifer saturated thickness and isolation of residual reactants and products, as well as unmitigated uranium, in the newly unsaturated vadose zone. High permeability sandy gravel structures resulted in locally high flow rates in the vicinity of injection wells that increased acetate dilution. In downgradient locations, these structures created preferential flow paths for acetate delivery that enhanced local zones of TEAP reactivity and subsidiary reactions. Conversely, smaller transport rates associated with the lower permeability lithofacies (e.g., fine) and vadose zone were shown to limit acetate access and reaction. Once accessed by acetate, however, these same zones limited subsequent acetate dilution and provided longer residence times that resulted in higher concentrations of TEAP products when terminal electron donors and acceptors were not limiting. Finally, facies-based porosity and reactive surface area variations were shown to affect aqueous uranium concentration distributions; however, the ranges were sufficiently small to preserve general trends. Large computer memory and high computational performance were required to simulate the detailed coupled process models for multiple biogeochemical components in highly resolved heterogeneous materials for the 110-day field experiment and 50 days of post-biostimulation behavior. In this case, a highly-scalable subsurface simulator operating on 128 processor cores for 12 hours was used to simulate each realization. An equivalent simulation without parallel processing would have taken 60 days, assuming sufficient memory was available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Prediction and Computation of Corrosion Rates of A36 Mild Steel in Oilfield Seawater

The parameters which primarily control the corrosion rate and life of steel structures are several and they vary across the different ocean and seawater as well as along the depth. While the effect of single parameter on corrosion behavior is known, the conjoint effects of multiple parameters and the interrelationship among the variables are complex. Millions sets of experiments are required to understand the mechanism of corrosion failure. Statistical modeling such as ANN is one solution that can reduce the number of experimentation. ANN model was developed using 170 sets of experimental data of A35 mild steel in simulated seawater, varying the corrosion influencing parameters SO{sub 4}{sup 2−}, Cl{sup −}, HCO{sub 3}{sup −},CO{sub 3}{sup 2−}, CO{sub 2}, O{sub 2}, pH and temperature as input and the corrosion current as output. About 60% of experimental data were used to train the model, 20% for testing and 20% for validation. The model was developed by programming in Matlab. 80% of the validated data could predict the corrosion rate correctly. Corrosion rates predicted by the ANN model are displayed in 3D graphics which show many interesting phenomenon of the conjoint effects of multiple variables that might throw new ideas of mitigation of corrosion by simply modifying the chemistry of the constituents. The model could predict the corrosion rates of some real systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lie-algebraic classical simulations for quantum computing

The classical simulation of quantum dynamics plays an important role in our understanding of quantum complexity and in the development of quantum technologies. Efficient techniques such as those based on the Gottesman-Knill theorem for Clifford circuits, tensor networks for low entanglement-generating circuits, or Wick's theorem for fermionic Gaussian states have become central tools in quantum computing. In this work, we contribute to this body of knowledge by presenting a framework for classical simulations, dubbed “𝔤-sim”, which is based on the underlying Lie algebraic structure of the dynamical process. When the dimension of the algebra grows at most polynomially in the system size, there exist observables for which the simulation is efficient. Indeed, we show that 𝔤-sim enables new regimes for classical simulations, is able to deal with certain forms of noise in the evolution, as well as can be used to tackle several paradigmatic variational and nonvariational quantum computing tasks. For the former, we perform Lie-algebraic simulations to train and optimize parametrized quantum circuits (thus effectively showing that some variational models can be dequantized), design enhanced parameter initialization strategies, solve tasks of quantum circuit synthesis, and train a quantum-phase classifier. For the latter, we report large-scale noiseless and noisy simulations on benchmark problems. By comparing the limitations of 𝔤-sim and certain Wick's theorem-based simulations, we find that the two methods become inefficient for different types of states or observables, hinting at the existence of distinct, nonequivalent resources for classical simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

OptRAM: In-silico strain design via integrative regulatory-metabolic network modeling

The ultimate goal of metabolic engineering is to produce desired compounds on an industrial scale in a cost effective manner. To address challenges in metabolic engineering, computational strain optimization algorithms based on genome-scale metabolic models have increasingly been used to aid in overproducing products of interest. However, most of these strain optimization algorithms utilize a metabolic network alone, with few approaches providing strategies that also include transcriptional regulation. Moreover previous integrated approaches generally require a pre-existing regulatory network. In this study, we developed a novel strain design algorithm, named OptRAM (Optimization of Regulatory And Metabolic Networks), which can identify combinatorial optimization strategies including overexpression, knockdown or knockout of both metabolic genes and transcription factors. OptRAM is based on our previous IDREAM integrated network framework, which makes it able to deduce a regulatory network from data. OptRAM uses simulated annealing with a novel objective function, which can ensure a favorable coupling between desired chemical and cell growth. The other advance we propose is a systematic evaluation metric of multiple solutions, by considering the essential genes, flux variation, and engineering manipulation cost. We applied OptRAM to generate strain designs for succinate, 2,3-butanediol, and ethanol overproduction in yeast, which predicted high minimum predicted target production rate compared with other methods and previous literature values. Moreover, most of the genes and TFs proposed to be altered by OptRAM in these scenarios have been validated by modification of the exact genes or the target genes regulated by the TFs, for overproduction of these desired compounds by in vivo experiments cataloged in the LASER database. Particularly, we successfully validated the predicted strain optimization strategy for ethanol production by fermentation experiment. As a result, OptRAM can provide a useful approach that leverages an integrated transcriptional regulatory network and metabolic network to guide metabolic engineering applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Single and Multi-Node Modeling of Direct, Submerged, and Self-Pressurization of A Cryogenic Propellant Tank Using Nodal Tools

The pressurization of cryogenic propellant tanks will always be an important process so long as cryogenic liquids are being considered as fuel sources or used for other in-space applications. Pressure control of the tank ullage is necessary for managing propellant flowrates to an engine or a receiver tank, and modeling of the process is used to predict the pressurant requirements and the amount of propellant boiloff. Direct ullage pressurization is the more traditional approach to tank pressurization, as the physics are straight-forward, and ample test (flight) data have been collected and analyzed over the past several decades. Submerged injection pressurization is an alternate method for tank pressurization and has been shown to reduce pressurant requirements, subcool the propellant, and reduce the risk of ullage collapse. Additionally, the pressurant gas entering the ullage is usually much colder when using the submerged pressurization approach, resulting in reduced propellant boiloff. These benefits are at the expense of vaporizing a small percentage of the propellent. Both tank pressurization methods are viable options for current and future space missions, and it is important to have the capability of analyzing the tank ullage conditions for both approaches. Our previous work has demonstrated the development of a Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) model, which contains a thermodynamic equilibrium heat and mass transfer subroutine capable of effectively analyzing both direct and submerged pressurization systems [1-2]. This subroutine has most recently been enhanced to include the non-equilibrium effect of pressurant dissolution into the propellant. To date the ullage has always been represented as a single node, and although the simulated single-node temperatures have good comparison with the volume-averaged ullage temperatures computed from test data, the physics of the thermal stratification in the ullage were never captured, and adjustment factors in the model were required. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the development of a multi-node ullage model using GFSSP and to discuss the improvements of the simulated ullage temperature distribution and its resulting effects on ullage heat transfer processes. Test data from the Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer Engineering Developmental Unit (CPST EDU) was used for model validation. For additional comparison, a Thermal Desktop (TD) model was also developed to analyze the CPST EDU direct ullage pressurization tests using both a single node and multi-node approach. The model includes the direct pressurant line, vent line, fill/drain line, and a TD FloCAD Compartment. The TD FloCAD Compartment is employed to represent the liquid and ullage as single volumes inside the tank, to include a liquid/vapor interface, and to generate network level objects such as lumps (analogous to nodes in GFSSP), paths, and ties between the fluid and thermal elements. An established heat load on the model tank was leveraged from a pre-existing higher-fidelity model correlated to CPST EDU test data.

pressurization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid geological modeling: Combining machine learning and multiple-point statistics

Accurately modeling and constructing a geologically realistic subsurface model remains an outstanding problem as the morphology controls the flow behaviors. Particularly, one of the pattern-based methods, namely cross-correlation based simulation, has been proved to be an effective way to reconstruct a realistic model, at both small and large scales. However, conditioning to point data in the large-scale problems is still a crucial issue in these algorithms, since there is always a trade-off between the quality of the realizations and the degree of point data reproduction. Specifically, it is not practical to build a training image (TI) which includes all the possibilities and variabilities. Therefore, finding a pattern that can represent the point data and, at the same time, preserving the connectivities is difficult. This leads to producing highly-connected realizations with a significant mismatch or poor models with a reasonable degree of point data reproduction. To accurately reproduce the densely distributed hard data, pixel-based methods can also produce some unrealistic artifacts around the hard data. In this paper, to overcome this challenge, however, we use pattern-based methods as they often produce more disconnected geobodies when dealing with dense hard data, and proposed a hybrid algorithm using the pattern-based methods and convolutional neural network (CNN). The trained CNN model is utilized to improve the quality of conditioning to point data for the original realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. As such, the mismatch locations are identified, and the same regions are used in the training of CNN to mimic the procedure through which a missing region can be filled. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm, it is tested on cases with different dimensions and different numbers of facies. Then, the newly improved realizations are compared with the initial realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. The comparison is also conducted by the flow simulation test. And it indicates that the proposed hybrid algorithm can better reproduce the point data, while the connectivities are better preserved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing

Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-AB-BRB-01: Development of a Probe-Format Graphite Calorimeter for Practical Clinical Dosimetry: Numerical Design Optimization, Prototyping, and Experimental Proof-Of-Concept

Purpose: In this work, the feasibility of performing absolute dose to water measurements using a constant temperature graphite probe calorimeter (GPC) in a clinical environment is established. Methods: A numerical design optimization study was conducted by simulating the heat transfer in the GPC resulting from irradiation using a finite element method software package. The choice of device shape, dimensions, and materials was made to minimize the heat loss in the sensitive volume of the GPC. The resulting design, which incorporates a novel aerogel-based thermal insulator, and 15 temperature sensitive resistors capable of both Joule heating and measuring temperature, was constructed in house. A software based process controller was developed to stabilize the temperatures of the GPC’s constituent graphite components to within a few 10’s of µK. This control system enables the GPC to operate in either the quasi-adiabatic or isothermal mode, two well-known, and independent calorimetry techniques. Absorbed dose to water measurements were made using these two methods under standard conditions in a 6 MV 1000 MU/min photon beam and subsequently compared against TG-51 derived values. Results: Compared to an expected dose to water of 76.9 cGy/100 MU, the average GPC-measured doses were 76.5 ± 0.5 and 76.9 ± 0.5 cGy/100 MU for the adiabatic and isothermal modes, respectively. The Monte Carlo calculated graphite to water dose conversion was 1.013, and the adiabatic heat loss correction was 1.003. With an overall uncertainty of about 1%, the most significant contributions were the specific heat capacity (type B, 0.8%) and the repeatability (type A, 0.6%). Conclusion: While the quasi-adiabatic mode of operation had been validated in previous work, this is the first time that the GPC has been successfully used isothermally. This proof-of-concept will serve as the basis for further study into the GPC’s application to small fields and MRI-linac dosimetry. This work has been supported in part by the CREATE Medical Physics Research Training Network of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) grant 432290, NSERC grants RGPIN 298191 & 435608-13, Canadian Institutes of Health Research doctoral scholarship GSD-121793. This work has also been supported by Sun Nuclear Corporation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

SERVER DEVELOPMENT FOR NSLS-II PHYSICS APPLICATIONS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

The beam commissioning software framework of NSLS-II project adopts a client/server based architecture to replace the more traditional monolithic high level application approach. The server software under development is available via an open source sourceforge project named epics-pvdata, which consists of modules pvData, pvAccess, pvIOC, and pvService. Examples of two services that already exist in the pvService module are itemFinder, and gather. Each service uses pvData to store in-memory transient data, pvService to transfer data over the network, and pvIOC as the service engine. The performance benchmarking for pvAccess and both gather service and item finder service are presented in this paper. The performance comparison between pvAccess and Channel Access are presented also. For an ultra low emittance synchrotron radiation light source like NSLS II, the control system requirements, especially for beam control are tight. To control and manipulate the beam effectively, a use case study has been performed to satisfy the requirement and theoretical evaluation has been performed. The analysis shows that model based control is indispensable for beam commissioning and routine operation. However, there are many challenges such as how to re-use a design model for on-line model based control, and how to combine the numerical methods for modeling of a realistic lattice with the analytical techniques for analysis of its properties. To satisfy the requirements and challenges, adequate system architecture for the software framework for beam commissioning and operation is critical. The existing traditional approaches are self-consistent, and monolithic. Some of them have adopted a concept of middle layer to separate low level hardware processing from numerical algorithm computing, physics modelling, data manipulating and plotting, and error handling. However, none of the existing approaches can satisfy the requirement. A new design has been proposed by introducing service oriented architecture technology, and client interface is undergoing. The design and implementation adopted a new EPICS implementation, namely epics-pvdata [9], which is under active development. The implementation of this project under Java is close to stable, and binding to other language such as C++ and/or Python is undergoing. In this paper, we focus on the performance benchmarking and comparison for pvAccess and Channel Access, the performance evaluation for 2 services, gather and item finder respectively.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Thomas Leps Internship Abstract

An optical navigation system is being flown as the backup system to the primary Deep Space Network telemetry for navigation and guidance purposes on Orion. This is required to ensure Orion can recover from a loss of communication, which would simultaneously cause a loss of DSN telemetry. Images taken of the Moon and Earth are used to give range and position information to the navigation computer for trajectory calculations and maneuver execution. To get telemetry data from these images, the size and location of the moon need to be calculated with high accuracy and precision. The reentry envelope for the Orion EM-1 mission requires the centroid and radius of the moon images to be determined within 1/3 of a pixel 3 sigma. In order to ensure this accuracy and precision can be attained, I was tasked with building precise dot grid images for camera calibration as well as building a hardware in the loop test stand for flight software and hardware proofing. To calibrate the Op-Nav camera a dot grid is imaged with the camera, the error between the image dot location and the actual dot location can be used to build a distortion map of the camera and lens system so that images can be fixed to display truth locations. To build the dot grid images I used the Electro Optics Lab optical bench Bright Object Simulator System, and gimbal. The gimbal was slewed to a series of elevations and azimuths. An image of the collimated single point light source was then taken at each position. After a series of 99 images were taken at different locations the single light spots were extracted from each image and added to a composite image containing all 99 points. During the development of these grids it was noticed that an intermittent error in the artificial "star" locations occurred. Prior to the summer this error was attributed to the gimbal having glitches in it's pointing direction and was going to be replaced, however after further examining the issue I determined it to be a software issue. I have since narrowed the likely source of the error down to a Software Development Kit released by the camera supplier PixeLink. I have since developed a workaround in order to build star grids for calibration until the software bug can be isolated and fixed. I was also tasked with building a Hardware in the Loop test stand in order to test the full Op-Nav system. A 4k screen displays simulated Lunar and Terrestrial images from a possible Orion trajectory. These images are then projected through a collimator and then captured with an Op-Nav camera controlled by an Intel NUC computer running flight software. The flight software then analyzes the images to determine attitude and position, this data is then reconstructed into a trajectory and matched to the simulated trajectory in order to determine the accuracy of the attitude and position estimates. In order for the system to work it needs to be precisely and accurately aligned. I developed an alignment procedure that allows the screen, collimator and camera to be squared, centered and collinear with each other within a micron spatially and 5 arcseconds in rotation. I also designed a rigid mount for the screen that was machined on site in Building 10 by another intern. While I was working in the EOL we received a $500k Orion startracker for alignment procedure testing. Due to my prior experience in electronics development, as an ancillary duty, I was tasked with building the cables required to operate and power the startracker. If any errors are made building these cables the startracker would be destroyed, I was honored that the director of the lab entrusted such a critical component with me. This internship has cemented my view on public space exploration. I always preferred public sector to privatization because, as a scientist, the most interesting aspects of space for me are not necessarily the most profitable. I was concerned that the public sector was faltering however, and that in order to improve human space exploration I would be forced into private sector. I now know that, at least at JSC, human spaceflight is still progressing, and exciting work is still being done. I am now actively seeking employment at JSC after I complete my Ph.D and have met with my branch chiefs and mentor to discuss transitioning to a grad Co-op position.

Leps, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2019

Support for Reactor Operators in Case of Cyber-Security Threats (NEUP Final Report)

Increasing use of digital technology in nuclear power plants (NPPs) poses cyber-security as a crucial threat to public safety and to continuous energy production. Cyber-security risks are comprised of complex known and unknown interactions between various entities, system vulnerabilities, network protocols, human users and malicious attacks. There is little understanding or research geared towards plant operators’ response under cyber-security threats and operational procedures to cope with such threats. This is particularly critical when a cyber-security event masquerades as a safety incident or an evolving accident. Instead of leading operators to the remediation of the accident, the masked cyber event may lead them to circumvent the safety mechanisms of the plant. Given these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop a tool to characterize abnormal NPP events as “cyber” or “safety” incidents, and to further develop this tool as a real-time operator aid to assist in response to the incident. This NEUP Final Report summarizes the research efforts towards the above goals and the results in the following three aspects. First, a methodology for classifying abnormal NPP events as cyber-attacks or safety incidents was developed. This provides the basis for responding to potential cyber-attacks. In this methodology, the causal relationships between various variables (i.e., physical variables, network variables, and control variables) for a nuclear system under consideration are modeled using dynamic Bayesian networks. Based on observations of certain variables (i.e., the evidence), inference is performed to identify the state of hidden variables, which helps indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety incidents. The proposed methodology was applied to the full scope NPP simulator system at The Ohio State University as a case study. The result shows that the proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing between cyber-attacks and safety incidents. Second, a game-theoretic approach for responding to cyber-attacks on nuclear power plants was developed. This is the second major goal of the project, and the method is used to recommend optimal responses to reactor operators in the case of cyber-attacks. We consider two cases in this research. In the first case, the interaction between the defender (i.e., the reactor operator) and the attacker is modeled as a two-player, nonzero-sum, Markov game with an infinite time horizon. In the second case, we consider a semi-Markov game between the defender and the attacker within a finite time horizon. The model in the second case enables us to consider the time sensitive response of the defender. In each case, the method for deriving the Nash equilibrium is developed. The Nash Equilibrium of the game provides the valid prediction of both players’ actions because no single player can benefit from unilaterally deviating from the equilibrium policy if the other player adheres to his/hers, hence it provides the best response of the defender to cyber-attacks. The proposed method in each case is demonstrated through a simplified benchmark digital feedwater control system. Third, a prototype display is developed to integrate the above information. The prototype display depicts the communication information to the operator and incorporates the cyber-security tool developed by the team into the interface. It consists of the regular display in current control rooms, as well as a panel used to indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety events and a panel used to guide the operator’s response to detected cyber-attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cybersecurity for Distance Relay Protection

This project is a DOE follow-up effort on the CREDC workshop held on September 13, 2018 in Cambridge, MA to discuss cybersecurity of distance relays, which considered the benefits, vulnerabilities and risk mitigations for the use of communication systems in power system protection. The objectives of this project are to define the taxonomy of relay protection and associated communications; define use cases describing approaches to reduce the cyber-attack surface on those protective relays; and evaluate the loss of operational functional capability from changes to communication coverage. Mitigating controls will also be evaluated to understand if there are other approaches to reduce attack surfaces while maintaining communications or partial communications. Distance relays are used to protect transmission lines of approximately 10 to 300 miles in length, by detecting short circuits (i.e., faults) on the lines and then tripping circuit breakers in the substation. Such protection systems are a subset of the power system and they incorporate sensing, logic and communication functions. Protection system exposure to cyberattack could be drastically limited by disconnecting relays from all vulnerable communication systems, but this may adversely impact overall power system performance in the absence of cyberattack. This project began with a use case analysis of protection systems with communications, as summarized in this report. It continued with modeling, testing and evaluation in a miniature power system (MPS), located in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) Electric Power Training Center (EPTC). The project also incorporated feedback from two industry meetings held in February and September 2019. The suggested next steps account for and complement the work already underway with DOE/CESER funding: 1. Study the performance of LCD and PC vs. PUTT, which is less reliant on communication system performance and GPS timing references. The PUTT scheme could prove to be more resilient to cyberattack or communications-related disruption. It could also be more tolerant of message re-routing with SDN/SDR communication systems. On the other hand, it will be more vulnerable to false tripping during dynamic events or to loss of the voltage signal. The optimum choice of scheme may depend on the specific power system and risk assessment. This study could provide a new template for evaluation based on business functions. 2. Research and develop new methods to detect and monitor distributed physical attacks, possibly using drones, video sensors, thermal sensors, machine learning and other advanced techniques. This will help mitigate the impact of cyberattack on the protection system, and will also help mitigate the impact of wild fires. 3. Implement a scalable PKI for use in electric utility protection systems. This will encourage widespread adoption of secure authentication methods that are already available, but not widely used at present. This will help secure engineering access to the relays. 4. Investigate the use of SDN in combination with SDR to achieve better cybersecurity and electromagnetic security of the network, incorporating path variability. This would help secure both engineering access and peer-to-peer GOOSE messaging. 5. Perform additional testing, with operator evaluation of “red button” scenarios, PUTT vs. LCD, relay mis-operations, and other cyberattacks in the EPTC. This is an important advantage of testing in the EPTC rather than by computer simulation or even hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the EPTC is already dedicated to managing the situational awareness, operator response times and other human impacts. One of the project objectives was to settle on a common nomenclature for this problem space. We have concluded that the OSI layer model, supplemented by ANSI device numbers and other IEEE standards, is already well-accepted by the industry. The IEEE PSRC knowledge base provides a great deal of public information

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comprehensive guide to CAN IDS data and introduction of the ROAD dataset

Although ubiquitous in modern vehicles, Controller Area Networks (CANs) lack basic security properties and are easily exploitable. A rapidly growing field of CAN security research has emerged that seeks to detect intrusions or anomalies on CANs. Producing vehicular CAN data with a variety of intrusions is a difficult task for most researchers as it requires expensive assets and deep expertise. To illuminate this task, we introduce the first comprehensive guide to the existing open CAN intrusion detection system (IDS) datasets. We categorize attacks on CANs including fabrication (adding frames, e.g., flooding or targeting and ID), suspension (removing an ID’s frames), and masquerade attacks (spoofed frames sent in lieu of suspended ones). We provide a quality analysis of each dataset; an enumeration of each datasets’ attacks, benefits, and drawbacks; categorization as real vs. simulated CAN data and real vs. simulated attacks; whether the data is raw CAN data or signal-translated; number of vehicles/CANs; quantity in terms of time; and finally a suggested use case of each dataset. State-of-the-art public CAN IDS datasets are limited to real fabrication (simple message injection) attacks and simulated attacks often in synthetic data, lacking fidelity. In general, the physical effects of attacks on the vehicle are not verified in the available datasets. Only one dataset provides signal-translated data but is missing a corresponding “raw” binary version. This issue pigeon-holes CAN IDS research into testing on limited and often inappropriate data (usually with attacks that are too easily detectable to truly test the method). The scarcity of appropriate data has stymied comparability and reproducibility of results for researchers. As our primary contribution, we present the Real ORNL Automotive Dynamometer (ROAD) CAN IDS dataset, consisting of over 3.5 hours of one vehicle’s CAN data. ROAD contains ambient data recorded during a diverse set of activities, and attacks of increasing stealth with multiple variants and instances of real (i.e. non-simulated) fuzzing, fabrication, unique advanced attacks, and simulated masquerade attacks. To facilitate a benchmark for CAN IDS methods that require signal-translated inputs, we also provide the signal time series format for many of the CAN captures. Our contributions aim to facilitate appropriate benchmarking and needed comparability in the CAN IDS research field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗