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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating the National Carbon Abatement Potential of City Policies: A Data- Driven Approach

Cities are increasingly taking actions such as building code enforcement, urban planning, and public transit expansion to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in their communities and municipal operations. However, many cities lack the quantitative information needed to estimate policy impacts and prioritize city actions in terms of carbon abatement potential and cost effectiveness. This report fills this research gap by providing methodologies to assess the carbon abatement potential of a variety of city actions. The methodologies are applied to an energy use data set of 23,458 cities compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy’s City Energy Profile tool. The analysis estimates the national carbon abatement potential of the most commonly implemented actions in six specific policy areas. The results of this analysis suggest that, in aggregate, cities could reduce nationwide carbon emissions by about 210 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMT CO 2 ) per year in a "moderate abatement scenario" by 2035 and 480 MMT CO 2 /year in a "high abatement scenario" by 2035 through these common actions typically within a city’s control in the six policy areas. The aggregate carbon abatement potential of these specific areas equates to a reduction of 3%-7% relative to 2013 U.S. emissions. At the city level, the results suggest the average city could reduce carbon emissions by 7% (moderate) to 19% (high) relative to current city-level emissions. City carbon abatement potential is sensitive to national and state policies that affect the carbon intensity of electricity and transportation. Specifically, the U.S. Clean Power Plan and further renewable energy cost reductions could reduce city carbon emissions overall, helping cities achieve their carbon reduction goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Data-driven fuel consumption estimation: A multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

Providing guidance and information to drivers to help them make fuel-efficient route choices remains an important and effective strategy in the near term to reduce fuel consumption from the transportation sector. One key component in implementing this strategy is a fuel-consumption estimation model. In this paper, we developed a mesoscopic fuel consumption estimation model that can be implemented into an eco-routing system. Our proposed model presents a framework that utilizes large-scale, real-world driving data, clusters road links by free-flow speed and fits one statistical model for each of cluster. This model includes predicting variables that were rarely or never considered before, such as free-flow speed and number of lanes. We applied the model to a real-world driving data set based on a global positioning system travel survey in the Philadelphia-Camden-Trenton metropolitan area. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that the independent variables we chose influence the fuel consumption rates of vehicles. But the magnitude and direction of the influences are dependent on the type of road links, specifically free-flow speeds of links. Here, a statistical diagnostic is conducted to ensure the validity of the models and results. Although the real-world driving data we used to develop statistical relationships are specific to one region, the framework we developed can be easily adjusted and used to explore the fuel consumption relationship in other regions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Making Data-Driven Policy Decisions for the Nation’s First Building Energy Performance Standards

Nearly every major U.S. city has committed itself to ambitious climate action goals – for Washington, DC this means a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2032 and carbon neutrality by 2050. In support of these goals, Washington, DC has passed one of the most aggressive and practical climate action bills in the nation—with the Clean Energy DC Omnibus Act, DC became the first city in the U.S. to adopt energy performance standards for existing buildings. DC’s Building Energy Performance Standards (BEPS) require energy efficiency improvements for all commercial and multifamily buildings that do not meet a sector-specific minimum ENERGY STAR score or equivalent metric, with iterative compliance cycles every five years that will accelerate the pace of whole building retrofits. This paper explores this revolutionary policy framework and uses two data analysis projects that DC conducted to evaluate the potential impact of the BEPS and move towards carbon neutrality. First, we analyze the potential energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions, as well as potential cost impacts, from the implementation of a BEPS policy in DC We then examine the role of BEPS in a carbon neutrality strategy, how BEPS savings iterate over time, and what additional existing building improvements will be driven by the gravitational pull of new building codes on median performance. The paper highlights the benefits and limitations of such data-driven approaches to support policy decisions. Finally, we will review ongoing BEPS implementation, including expected policy directions, critical supportive programs, and lessons learned to date.

Bergfeld, Katie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven models of nonautonomous systems

Nonautonomous dynamical systems are characterized by time-dependent inputs, which complicates the discovery of predictive models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the state variables of quantities of interest from their temporal snapshots. When dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to infer a linear model, this difficulty manifests itself in the need to approximate the time-dependent Koopman operators. Our approach is to approximate the original nonautonomous system with a modified system derived via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs. The modified system comprises a sequence of local parametric systems, which are subsequently approximated by a parametric surrogate model using the DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) framework. The offline step of DRIPS relies on DMD to build a linear surrogate model, endowed with reduced-order bases for the observables mapped from training data. The online step interpolates on suitable manifolds to construct a sequence of iterative parametric surrogate models; the target/test parameter points on these manifolds are specified by a local parameterization of the test time-dependent inputs. Here, we use numerical experimentation to demonstrate the robustness of our method and compare its performance with that of deep neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature. The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data-driven model for cross ventilation potential in high-density cities based on coupled CFD simulation and machine learning

Effective urban ventilation through decent urban planning and building design can alleviate the deterioration of the urban built environment. Furthermore, natural ventilation requirements and guidelines in current building codes and standards are either qualitative or quantitative but subject to an absolute indoor airspeed threshold without considering the outdoor wind environment. To fill this gap, this paper develops an urban-scale coupled indoor and outdoor computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and defines a novel ventilation index to assess natural ventilation potential. The index considers wind environments of both indoor and outdoor spaces.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical and Neural Network for Real Sensor-Data-Driven Anomaly Detection in Nuclear Applications

Anomaly detection (AD) in sensor data is critical to ensure uninterrupted functionality of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Consequently, AD model validation through real-world sensor data is important for applications in nuclear facilities. In this paper, we propose an Autoencoder (AE)—a multi-layered neural network, for AD in sensor data from an operational NPP testbed. Since the dataset lacks labels for irregularities, we introduce random noise and label them to effectively train our model. The proposed AE model assigns a higher reconstruction error to the abnormal samples that deviate from those encountered during the training phase and uses the reconstruction loss to detect anomalies in a representative imbalanced dataset. We also introduce an analytical solution—seasonal trend decomposition (STD)—as another AD scheme for identifying irregularities withinthe same time-series dataset. In contrast to the AE model which relies on reconstruction loss, the STD scheme decomposes the entire dataset into its trend, seasonality, and residual components to pinpoint irregularities. Our findings indicate that the proposed AE and STD models individually achieve recall scores of 97% and 92%, respectively. We validate the performance of the two models on both balanced and imbalanced data. We further solidify the results by picking the combined selected anomalies of the two solutions with an "AND" operator for more reliable predictions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical and Neural Network for Real Sensor-Data-Driven Anomaly Detection in Nuclear Applications

Anomaly detection (AD) in sensor data is critical to ensure uninterrupted functionality of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Consequently, validation of AD models through real-world sensor data is important for their application in nuclear facilities. In this paper, we propose an Autoencoder (AE)— a multi-layered neural network, for AD in sensor data from an operational NPP testbed. Since the dataset lacks labels for irregularities, we introduce random noise and label them to effectively train our model. The proposed AE model assigns a higher reconstruction error to the abnormal samples that deviate from those encountered during the training phase and uses the reconstruction loss to detect anomalies in a representative imbalanced dataset. We also introduce an analytical solution—seasonal trend decomposition (STD) — as another AD scheme for identifying irregularities within the same time-series dataset. In contrast to the AE model which relies on reconstruction loss, the STD scheme decomposes the entire dataset into its trend, seasonality, and residual components to pinpoint irregularities. Our findings indicate that the proposed AE and STD models individually achieve recall scores of 97% and 92%, respectively. We also validate the performance of the two models on both balanced and imbalanced data. We further solidify the results by picking the combined selected anomalies of the two solutions with an "AND" operator for more reliable predictions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven projection pursuit adaptation of polynomial chaos expansions for dependent high-dimensional parameters

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and inference involving a large number of parameters are valuable tools for problems associated with heterogeneous and non-stationary behaviors. The difficulty with these problems is exacerbated when these parameters are statistically dependent requiring statistical characterization over joint measures. Probabilistic modeling methodologies stand as effective tools in the realms of UQ and inference. Among these, polynomial chaos expansions (PCE), when adapted to low-dimensional quantities of interest (QoI), provide effective yet accurate approximations for these QoI in terms of an adapted orthogonal basis. These adaptation techniques have been cast as projection pursuits in Gaussian Hilbert space in what has been referred to as a projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) by Xiaoshu Zeng and Roger Ghanem (2023). The PPA method efficiently identifies an optimal low-dimensional space for representing the QoI and simultaneously evaluates an optimal PCE within that space. The quality of this approximation clearly depends on the size of the training dataset, which is typically a function of the adapted reduced dimension. Here, the complexity of the problem is thus mediated by the complexity of the low-dimensional quantity of interest and not the complexity of the high-dimensional parameter space.

Data-driven↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards data-driven constitutive modelling for granular materials via micromechanics-informed deep learning

The analytical description of path-dependent elastic-plastic responses of a granular system is highly complicated because of continuously evolving microstructures and strain localisation within the system undergoing deformation. This study offers an alternative to the current analytical paradigm by developing micromechanics-informed machine-learning based constitutive modelling approaches for granular materials. A set of critical variables associated with the constitutive behaviour of granular materials are identified through an incremental stress-strain relationship analysis. Depending on the strategy to exploit the priori micromechanical knowledge, three different training strategies are explored. The first model uses only the measurable external variables to make stress predictions; the second model utilises a directed graph to link all the external strain sequences and internal microstructural evolution variables into a single prediction model comprised of a series of sub-mappings, and the third model explicitly integrates the physically important non-temporal properties with external strain paths into training through an enhanced Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). These three models show satisfactory agreement with unseen test specimens based on multi-directional loading cases. The basic features and potential applications of each model are explained. Lastly, the key factors for constitutive training and limitations of the current work are also discussed in detail.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

An adaptive knowledge-based data-driven approach for turbulence modeling using ensemble learning technique under complex flow configuration: 3D PWR sub-channel with DNS data

This work describes a new approach to increase the accuracy of Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) in modeling turbulence flow leveraging the machine learning technique. Traditionally, different turbulence models for Reynolds stress are developed for different flow patterns based on human knowledge. Each turbulence model has a certain application domain and prediction uncertainty. In recent years, with the rapid improvements of machine learning techniques, researchers start to develop an approach to compensate for the prediction discrepancy of traditional turbulence models with statistical models and data. However, the approach has deficiencies in several aspects. For example, the amount of human knowledge introduced to the statistical model couldn’t be controlled, which makes the statistical model learn from a very naïve stage and limits its application. In this work, a new approach is developed to address those deficiencies. Here, the new approach uses the “ensemble learning” technique to control the amount of human knowledge introduced into the statistical model. Therefore, the new approach could be adaptive to the multiple application domains. In conclusion, according to the results of case study, the new approach shows higher accuracy than both traditional turbulence models and the previous machine learning approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

Research directed at developing a graph theoretical model for describing data and control flow associated with the execution of large grained algorithms in a special distributed computer environment is presented. This model is identified by the acronym ATAMM which represents Algorithms To Architecture Mapping Model. The purpose of such a model is to provide a basis for establishing rules for relating an algorithm to its execution in a multiprocessor environment. Specifications derived from the model lead directly to the description of a data flow architecture which is a consequence of the inherent behavior of the data and control flow described by the model. The purpose of the ATAMM based architecture is to provide an analytical basis for performance evaluation. The ATAMM model and architecture specifications are demonstrated on a prototype system for concept validation.

Stoughton, John W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven design of molecular nanomagnets

Three decades of research in molecular nanomagnets have raised their magnetic memories from liquid helium to liquid nitrogen temperature thanks to a wise choice of the magnetic ion and coordination environment. Still, serendipity and chemical intuition played a main role. In order to establish a powerful framework for statistically driven chemical design, here we collected chemical and physical data for lanthanide-based nanomagnets, catalogued over 1400 published experiments, developed an interactive dashboard (SIMDAVIS) to visualise the dataset, and applied inferential statistical analysis. Our analysis shows that the Arrhenius energy barrier correlates unexpectedly well with the magnetic memory. Furthermore, as both Orbach and Raman processes can be affected by vibronic coupling, chemical design of the coordination scheme may be used to reduce the relaxation rates. Indeed, only bis-phthalocyaninato sandwiches and metallocenes, with rigid ligands, consistently present magnetic memory up to high temperature. Analysing magnetostructural correlations, we offer promising strategies for improvement, in particular for the preparation of pentagonal bipyramids, where even softer complexes are protected against molecular vibrations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Variable Parametric Analysis of Prototype Building Energy Performance Using Current and Future Weather Scenarios For Data-Driven Market Transformation Support

This project aimed to develop a public building simulation data set that may be used to inform building code development and guidelines for building innovation. The data set consists of several common building types and many representative locations across the United States. A parametric design of building properties was developed to create a range of building energy models that represent common building design decisions with a particular focus on fenestration options. The US Department of Energy prototype building energy models were altered according to a parametric building design and simulated using both current weather data and future weather estimates derived from global climate models. The resulting data set allows for pertinent exploration of building design parameters, including fenestration, within different environments across the United States in the broader context of climate change.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

A data-driven analysis of the heavy quark transport coefficient

Using a Bayesian model-to-data analysis, we estimate the temperature dependence of the heavy quark diffusion coefficients by calibrating to the experimental data of D-meson R AA and v 2 in AuAu collisions ($\sqrt{s}$NN = 200 GeV) and PbPb collisions ($\sqrt{s}$NN = 2.76 TeV) [1]. The spatial diffusion coefficient D s 2πT is found to be mostly constraint around (1.3 1.5)T c and is compatible with lattice QCD calculations. Here we demonstrate the capability of our improved Langevin model to simultaneously describe the R AA and v 2 at both RHIC and the LHC energies, as well as the feasibility to apply a Bayesian analysis to quantitatively study the heavy flavor transport in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data-driven discovery of coordinates and governing equations

The discovery of governing equations from scientific data has the potential to transform data-rich fields that lack well-characterized quantitative descriptions. Advances in sparse regression are currently enabling the tractable identification of both the structure and parameters of a nonlinear dynamical system from data. The resulting models have the fewest terms necessary to describe the dynamics, balancing model complexity with descriptive ability, and thus promoting interpretability and generalizability. This provides an algorithmic approach to Occam’s razor for model discovery. However, this approach fundamentally relies on an effective coordinate system in which the dynamics have a simple representation. In this work, we design a custom deep autoencoder network to discover a coordinate transformation into a reduced space where the dynamics may be sparsely represented. Thus, we simultaneously learn the governing equations and the associated coordinate system. We demonstrate this approach on several example high-dimensional systems with low-dimensional behavior. The resulting modeling framework combines the strengths of deep neural networks for flexible representation and sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) for parsimonious models. This method places the discovery of coordinates and models on an equal footing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗