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DOE OSTI2016

Systematic Evaluation of Stochastic Methods in Power System Scheduling and Dispatch with Renewable Energy

As more wind power and other renewable resources are being integrated into the electric power grid, the forecast uncertainty brings operational challenges for the power system operators. In this report, different operational strategies for uncertainty management are presented and evaluated. A comprehensive and consistent simulation framework is developed to analyze the performance of different reserve policies and scheduling techniques under uncertainty in wind power. Numerical simulations are conducted on a modified version of the IEEE 118-bus system with a 20% wind penetration level, comparing deterministic, interval, and stochastic unit commitment strategies. The results show that stochastic unit commitment provides a reliable schedule without large increases in operational costs. Moreover, decomposition techniques, such as load shift factor and Benders decomposition, can help in overcoming the computational obstacles to stochastic unit commitment and enable the use of a larger scenario set to represent forecast uncertainty. In contrast, deterministic and interval unit commitment tend to give higher system costs as more reserves are being scheduled to address forecast uncertainty. However, these approaches require a much lower computational effort Choosing a proper lower bound for the forecast uncertainty is important for balancing reliability and system operational cost in deterministic and interval unit commitment. Finally, we find that the introduction of zonal reserve requirements improves reliability, but at the expense of higher operational costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

(U) Differences in the Use of Isotopic $χ$ Vectors Demonstrated with an Analytic k ∞ Problem (And Verification of SENSMG and MCNP6’s KSEN)

Comparisons of responses and first-order sensitivities of responses to the neutron fission spectrum ( χ ) have been done using different transport methods. Kodeli and Slavič compared sensitivities from Monte Carlo, deterministic, and method of characteristics of k eff in the SNEAK-7 benchmark, and the agreement was reasonable. Yamamoto compared deterministic and Monte Carlo sensitivities of k - and α -eigenvalues to the fission χ , but only for material (i.e. single-isotope) values of the fission χ . Haeck et al. compared Monte Carlo and deterministic sensitivities of k eff to the fission χ of individual isotopes for several benchmarks, and the agreement was excellent (except, strangely, for U-236). Kiedrowski and Brown compared Monte Carlo and analytic sensitivities of k ∞ to the fission χ in analytic problems, but only for material values of the fission χ .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Command of active and responsive elastomers by topological defects and patterns

The project resulted in the development of stimuli-responsive elastomer coatings formed by photopolymerized liquid crystal molecules. The molecular orientation of the liquid crystal elastomers is coupled to rubber-like elasticity. The project developed an approach to produce complex patterns of molecular orientation in elastomers by employing photopatterning technique based on plasmonic metamasks that convert unpolarized incoming light into a transmitted light beam with spatially-varying linear polarization. The polarization-modulated light beam aligns the film of azodye molecules, which serves as the substrate for liquid crystal elastomer coating. The alignment of the azodye molecules follows the polarization pattern with a phase shift of the alignment direction by 90 degrees. The azodye substrate imposes orientation of molecules in the adjacent liquid crystal layer which is preserved after the monomers are polymerized into a liquid crystal elastomer. By using differently aligned substrates one could produce various patterns of molecular orientation in the elastomer, which dictate the mechanical properties of the elastomers and their response to external stimuli such as temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet irradiation. In particular, the predesigned molecular orientation produces deterministically defined topography response of the liquid crystal coatings, in which their free surface changes from flat to either locally elevated or locally compressed, depending on whether the pre-inscribed molecular orientation is predesigned with a splay or bend deformation. The research established that the mechanism of this deterministic relation between the dynamic topography and pre-inscribed molecular orientation is rooted in the change of the tensorial order parameter that characterizes the degree of orientational order, and in the contraction/expansion of polymer molecules in response to the order parameter changes. In particular, lowering the order causes contraction of polymer globules. The work demonstrated that the dynamic topography of elastomer coatings with three-dimensional pattern of orientational order includes up and down motion of the material (along the normal to the coating) and also shifts in lateral directions. We demonstrate that the deterministic relationship between the orientational patterns and variations of coatings’ profile is caused by forces that are mathematically equivalent to active forces in the system of “pullers” or “pushers” in active matter, demonstrating universality of the out-of-equilibrium behavior. The project resulted in theoretical models that predictively describe the dynamic response of coatings. The topography of liquid crystal elastomers is sensitive to stimuli such as temperature, ultraviolet irradiation, and humidity. The applicability of the patterned approach to produce dynamic coatings was expanded from nematic elastomers to their smectic counterparts. The project combined a battery of imaging techniques to unveil the dynamic properties of the coatings, ranging from the state-of-the-art dynamic holographic microscopy to fluorescent confocal polarizing microscopy and polscope microscopy. The research uncovered potential applications of dynamic elastomer coatings, such as control placement of colloidal particles, engineering of living tissues with alignment patterns of cells that follow the orientational order of elastomer coatings. The approach developed in the project can be used to design programmable dynamic coatings with functionalities that mimic biological tissues such as skin.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wind Turbine Rotor Design Optimization Using Importance Sampling: Preprint

Probabilistic methods are commonly adopted to estimate both ultimate and fatigue loads in wind turbines, and multiple papers have presented a variety of approaches. In contrast, system-level, integrated design optimization methods for wind turbines have so far relied on deterministic methods to estimate loads and deflections. This work aims at addressing this gap by adopting importance sampling to estimate ultimate blade deflection for use within a rotor design optimization. A comparison between the results of this approach against traditional approaches using deterministic load evaluations show that the probabilistic approach is more conservative and that the solutions found with deterministic approaches violate the probabilistic constraint on tip deflection between 13% and 17%. This highlights the importance of accurate load and deflection estimates and demonstrates that probabilistic approaches can be successfully integrated within a wind turbine design process despite the higher computational costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Application of Hybrid Genetic Algorithm Routine in Optimizing Food and Bioengineering Processes

Optimization is a crucial step in the analysis of experimental results. Deterministic methods only converge on local optimums and require exponentially more time as dimensionality increases. Stochastic algorithms are capable of efficiently searching the domain space, however convergence is not guaranteed. This article demonstrates the novelty of hybrid genetic algorithm which combines both stochastic and deterministic routine for improved optimization results. A new hybrid genetic algorithm developed is applied to the Ackley benchmark function as well as case studies in foods, biofuels, and biotechnology processes. For each case study the hybrid genetic algorithm found a better optimum candidate than reported by the sources. In the case of food processing the hybrid genetic predicted 5% higher anthocyanin yield. Optimization of bio-oil production using HGA resulted in a 4.73 % higher yield. In enzyme production process HGA predicted 2.18 IU/gds of higher xylanase yield. In conclusion, hybridization of genetic algorithm with a deterministic algorithm resulted in maximum optimum compared to the statistical methods.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2016

STOCHASTIC OPTICS: A SCATTERING MITIGATION FRAMEWORK FOR RADIO INTERFEROMETRIC IMAGING

Just as turbulence in the Earth’s atmosphere can severely limit the angular resolution of optical telescopes, turbulence in the ionized interstellar medium fundamentally limits the resolution of radio telescopes. We present a scattering mitigation framework for radio imaging with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) that partially overcomes this limitation. Our framework, “stochastic optics,” derives from a simplification of strong interstellar scattering to separate small-scale (“diffractive”) effects from large-scale (“refractive”) effects, thereby separating deterministic and random contributions to the scattering. Stochastic optics extends traditional synthesis imaging by simultaneously reconstructing an unscattered image and its refractive perturbations. Its advantages over direct imaging come from utilizing the many deterministic properties of the scattering—such as the time-averaged “blurring,” polarization independence, and the deterministic evolution in frequency and time—while still accounting for the stochastic image distortions on large scales. These distortions are identified in the image reconstructions through regularization by their time-averaged power spectrum. Using synthetic data, we show that this framework effectively removes the blurring from diffractive scattering while reducing the spurious image features from refractive scattering. Stochastic optics can provide significant improvements over existing scattering mitigation strategies and is especially promising for imaging the Galactic Center supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A*, with the Global mm-VLBI Array and with the Event Horizon Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neutrino Transport with Monte Carlo Method. I. Toward Fully Consistent Implementation of Nucleon Recoils in Core-collapse Supernova Simulations

The small energy exchange via nucleon recoils in neutrino–nucleon scattering is now supposed to be one of the important factors for successful explosions of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), as they can change neutrino spectra through accumulation of a large number of scatterings. In deterministic methods employed for neutrino transport in CCSN simulations, we normally cannot afford to deploy a large enough number of energy bins needed to resolve this small energy exchange, and subgrid techniques are employed one way or another. In this paper, we study quantitatively with the Monte Carlo (MC) method how well such a treatment performs. We first investigate the effects of nucleon recoils on the neutrino spectra and confirm that the average energy is reduced by ~15% for heavy-lepton neutrinos and much smaller amounts for other types of neutrinos in a typical postbounce situation. It is also observed that the nucleon scattering dominates the electron scattering in the thermalization of neutrino spectra in all flavors. We then study possible artifacts that the coarse energy grid may produce in the deterministic methods. In order to mimic the latter calculation, we redistribute MC particles in each energy bin after a certain interval in a couple of ways and study how the results are affected, depending on the energy resolution. We also discuss the possible implications of our results for the deterministic methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of the tropical atmosphere

An examination of the deterministic predictability for tropics and middle-latitudes separately indicates that the theoretical upper limit of deterministic predictability for low latitudes is shorter than that for middle latitudes. Variability of time averages in low latitudes is mainly determined by the location and intensity of the large-scale Hadley and Walker circulations. Since these are largely influenced by the slowly varying boundary conditions of sea surface temperature and soil moisture, and since synoptic instabilities are not strong enough to change drastically the large scale flow, there is larger potential for predictability of monthly and seasonal means in low latitudes. It is conjectured that for short and medium range deterministic prediction, a prescribed diabatic heating field due to moist convection may be more useful than their explicit calculation from the evolving flow.

Shukla, J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Refinement and evaluation of helicopter real-time self-adaptive active vibration controller algorithms

A Real-Time Self-Adaptive (RTSA) active vibration controller was used as the framework in developing a computer program for a generic controller that can be used to alleviate helicopter vibration. Based upon on-line identification of system parameters, the generic controller minimizes vibration in the fuselage by closed-loop implementation of higher harmonic control in the main rotor system. The new generic controller incorporates a set of improved algorithms that gives the capability to readily define many different configurations by selecting one of three different controller types (deterministic, cautious, and dual), one of two linear system models (local and global), and one or more of several methods of applying limits on control inputs (external and/or internal limits on higher harmonic pitch amplitude and rate). A helicopter rotor simulation analysis was used to evaluate the algorithms associated with the alternative controller types as applied to the four-bladed H-34 rotor mounted on the NASA Ames Rotor Test Apparatus (RTA) which represents the fuselage. After proper tuning all three controllers provide more effective vibration reduction and converge more quickly and smoothly with smaller control inputs than the initial RTSA controller (deterministic with external pitch-rate limiting). It is demonstrated that internal limiting of the control inputs a significantly improves the overall performance of the deterministic controller.

Davis, M. W.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Observations, theoretical ideas and modeling of turbulent flows: Past, present and future

Turbulence was analyzed in a historical context featuring the interactions between observations, theoretical ideas, and modeling within three successive movements. These are identified as predominantly statistical, structural and deterministic. The statistical movement is criticized for its failure to deal with the structural elements observed in turbulent flows. The structural movement is criticized for its failure to embody observed structural elements within a formal theory. The deterministic movement is described as having the potential of overcoming these deficiencies by allowing structural elements to exhibit chaotic behavior that is nevertheless embodied within a theory. Four major ideas of this movement are described: bifurcation theory, strange attractors, fractals, and the renormalization group. A framework for the future study of turbulent flows is proposed, based on the premises of the deterministic movement.

Chapman, G. T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Delay compensation in integrated communication and control systems. I - Conceptual development and analysis

A procedure for compensating for the effects of distributed network-induced delays in integrated communication and control systems (ICCS) is proposed. The problem of analyzing systems with time-varying and possibly stochastic delays could be circumvented by use of a deterministic observer which is designed to perform under certain restrictive but realistic assumptions. The proposed delay-compensation algorithm is based on a deterministic state estimator and a linear state-variable-feedback control law. The deterministic observer can be replaced by a stochastic observer without any structural modifications of the delay compensation algorithm. However, if a feedforward-feedback control law is chosen instead of the state-variable feedback control law, the observer must be modified as a conventional nondelayed system would be. Under these circumstances, the delay compensation algorithm would be accordingly changed. The separation principle of the classical Luenberger observer holds true for the proposed delay compensator. The algorithm is suitable for ICCS in advanced aircraft, spacecraft, manufacturing automation, and chemical process applications.

Luck, Rogelio↗

NASA NTRS1990

Implications of chaos, scale-invariance, and fractal statistics in geology

A set of three nonlinear total differential equations (Lorenz equations) exhibiting deterministic chaos is considered, and it is shown that these equations demonstrate that deterministic equations with deterministic initial conditions can yield stocastic solutions with fractal statistics. The logistic map, fractal distributions, and fragmentation are discussed. It is pointed out that well-defined fractal distributions of earthquakes are found both regionally and globally, and that the general applicability of the fractal relation for seismicity can provide the basis for a quantitative seismic hazard assessment. It is suggested that the governing physics of erosional topography is nonlinear and may be related to a fractal distribution of storms and floods that generate and renew erosional feature such as gullies and drainage systems.

Turcotte, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Detecting and disentangling nonlinear structure from solar flux time series

Interest in solar activity has grown in the past two decades for many reasons. Most importantly for flight dynamics, solar activity changes the atmospheric density, which has important implications for spacecraft trajectory and lifetime prediction. Building upon the previously developed Rayleigh-Benard nonlinear dynamic solar model, which exhibits many dynamic behaviors observed in the Sun, this work introduces new chaotic solar forecasting techniques. Our attempt to use recently developed nonlinear chaotic techniques to model and forecast solar activity has uncovered highly entangled dynamics. Numerical techniques for decoupling additive and multiplicative white noise from deterministic dynamics and examines falloff of the power spectra at high frequencies as a possible means of distinguishing deterministic chaos from noise than spectrally white or colored are presented. The power spectral techniques presented are less cumbersome than current methods for identifying deterministic chaos, which require more computationally intensive calculations, such as those involving Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Combustion noise and combustion instabilities in propulsion systems

This paper is concerned with some aspects of non-linear behavior of unsteady motions in combustion chambers. The emphasis is on conditions under which organized oscillations having discrete frequencies may exist in the presence of random motions. In order to treat the two types of motions together, and particularly to investigate coupling between noise and combustion instabilities, the unsteady field is represented as a synthesis of acoustic modes having time-varying amplitudes. Each of the amplitudes are written as the sum of two parts, one associated with the random field and the remainder representing the organized oscillations. After spatial averaging, the general problem is reduced to solution of a set of second-order ordinary differential equations whose structure depends on the sorts of nonlinear processes accounted for. This formulation accommodates any physical process; in particular, terms are included to represent noise sources, although only limited modeling is discussed. Our results suggest that random sources of noise have only small effects on combustion instabilities and seem not to be a cause of unstable motions. However, the coupling between the two sorts of unsteady motions may be important as an essential process in a proposed scheme for noise control. It is now a familiar observation that many nonlinear deterministic systems are capable of exhibiting apparently random motions called 'chaos.' This is a particularly interesting possibility for systems which also executed non-deterministic random motions. In combustion chambers, a nonlinear deterministic system (acoustical motions) exists in the presence of noise produced by flow separation, turbulent motions, and energy released by combustion processes. The last part of the paper is directed to the matter of discovering whether or not chaotic motions exist in combustion systems. Analysis has not progressed sufficiently far to answer the question. We report here recent results of processing data taken in one combustor to determine the dimensions of any attractors in the motions. No evidence has been found for chaos in the strict sense, but the method seems to be an important means of investigating the nonlinear behavior of combustion systems.

F. E. C. Culick↗

NASA NTRS1994

Illustrated structural application of universal first-order reliability method

The general application of the proposed first-order reliability method was achieved through the universal normalization of engineering probability distribution data. The method superimposes prevailing deterministic techniques and practices on the first-order reliability method to surmount deficiencies of the deterministic method and provide benefits of reliability techniques and predictions. A reliability design factor is derived from the reliability criterion to satisfy a specified reliability and is analogous to the deterministic safety factor. Its application is numerically illustrated on several practical structural design and verification cases with interesting results and insights. Two concepts of reliability selection criteria are suggested. Though the method was developed to support affordable structures for access to space, the method should also be applicable for most high-performance air and surface transportation systems.

Verderaime, V.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A PC-based magnetometer-only attitude and rate determination system for gyroless spacecraft

This paper describes a prototype PC-based system that uses measurements from a three-axis magnetometer (TAM) to estimate the state (three-axis attitude and rates) of a spacecraft given no a priori information other than the mass properties. The system uses two algorithms that estimate the spacecraft's state - a deterministic magnetic-field only algorithm and a Kalman filter for gyroless spacecraft. The algorithms are combined by invoking the deterministic algorithm to generate the spacecraft state at epoch using a small batch of data and then using this deterministic epoch solution as the initial condition for the Kalman filter during the production run. System input comprises processed data that includes TAM and reference magnetic field data. Additional information, such as control system data and measurements from line-of-sight sensors, can be input to the system if available. Test results are presented using in-flight data from two three-axis stabilized spacecraft: Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) (gyroless, Sun-pointing) and Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) (gyro-based, Earth-pointing). The results show that, using as little as 700 s of data, the system is capable of accuracies of 1.5 deg in attitude and 0.01 deg/s in rates; i.e., within SAMPEX mission requirements.

Challa, M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Impact of Periodic Unsteadiness on Performance and Heat Load in Axial Flow Turbomachines

Results of an analytical and experimental investigation, directed at the understanding of the impact of periodic unsteadiness on the time-averaged flows in axial flow turbomachines, are presented. Analysis of available experimental data, from a large-scale rotating rig (LSRR) (low speed rig), shows that in the time-averaged axisymmetric equations the magnitude of the terms representing the effect of periodic unsteadiness (deterministic stresses) are as large or larger than those due to random unsteadiness (turbulence). Numerical experiments, conducted to highlight physical mechanisms associated with the migration of combustor generated hot-streaks in turbine rotors, indicated that the effect can be simulated by accounting for deterministic stress like terms in the time-averaged mass and energy conservation equations. The experimental portion of this program shows that the aerodynamic loss for the second stator in a 1-1/2 stage turbine are influenced by the axial spacing between the second stator leading edge and the rotor trailing edge. However, the axial spacing has little impact on the heat transfer coefficient. These performance changes are believed to be associated with the change in deterministic stress at the inlet to the second stator. Data were also acquired to quantify the impact of indexing the first stator relative to the second stator. For the range of parameters examined, this effect was found to be of the same order as the effect of axial spacing.

Sharma, Om P.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Unsteady Flow Field in a Multistage Axial Flow Compressor

The flow field in a multistage compressor is three-dimensional, unsteady, and turbulent with substantial viscous effects. Some of the specific phenomena that has eluded designers include the effects of rotor-stator and rotor-rotor interactions and the physics of mixing of velocity, pressure, temperature and velocity fields. An attempt was made, to resolve experimentally, the unsteady pressure and temperature fields downstream of the second stator of a multistage axial flow compressor which will provide information on rotor-stator interaction effects and the nature of the unsteadiness in an embedded stator of a three stage axial flow compressor. Detailed area traverse measurements using pneumatic five hole probe, thermocouple probe, semi-conductor total pressure probe (Kulite) and an aspirating probe downstream of the second stator were conducted at the peak efficiency operating condition. The unsteady data was then reduced through an ensemble averaging technique which splits the signal into deterministic and unresolved components. Auto and cross correlation techniques were used to correlate the deterministic total temperature and velocity components (acquired using a slanted hot-film probe at the same measurement locations) and the gradients, distributions and relative weights of each of the terms of the average passage equation were then determined. Based on these measurements it was observed that the stator wakes, hub leakage flow region, casing endwall suction surface corner region, and the casing endwall region away from the blade surfaces were the regions of highest losses in total pressure, lowest efficiency and highest levels of unresolved unsteadiness. The deterministic unsteadiness was found to be high in the hub and casing endwall regions as well as on the pressure side of the stator wake. The spectral distribution of hot-wire and kulite voltages shows that at least eight harmonics of all three rotor blade passing frequencies are present at this measurement location. In addition to the basic three rotor blade passing frequencies (R1, R2 and R3) and their harmonics, various difference frequencies such as (2R1 -R2) and (2R3-R2) and their harmonics are also observed. These difference frequencies are due to viscous and potential interactions between rotors 1, 2 and 3 which are sensed by both the total pressure and aspirating probes at this location. Significant changes occur to the stator exit flow features with passage of the rotor upstream of the stator. Because of higher convection speeds of the rotor wake on the suction surface of the downstream stator than on the pressure side, the chopped rotor wake was found to be arriving at different times on either side of the stator wake. As the rotor passes across the stator.

Suryavamshi, N.↗