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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-13135-DND

Aircraft Icing - Aircraft structures act as ice nuclei in supercooled clouds - ice collects, weight increases, plane falls - Pilots need to know where and when icing can occur - PIREPS are first order: sparse, aircraft dependent, location uncertain - Model analyses and forecasts: freezing levels, cloud expectations - radar => precipitation - All combined in NCAR/FAA/NOAA/NASA program to provide Current Icing Product (CIP) & Forecast Icing product (FIP) analyses to pilots (CONUS) - some inadequacies remain - NWP uncertainties, intensity, altitude of icing, etc. - Operational satellites can add valuable information - indirectly: input of cloud properties to CIP & NWP - directly: determination of icing threat from real time satellite data

William L Smith↗
NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Presentation: Scenario Timeline Exploration

Slides to discuss a current project with DOE. Topic focus is on: - Advanced reactors will be able to use risk insights for many design aspects - We need bounding scenarios for screening and scoping purposes - We need realistic scenarios for input into the licensing basis safety-case - We need to manage inherent uncertainty - We need to automate the safety-case creation as much as possible

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗
DOE OSTI2020

A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming

Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τ s ) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔC s,τ ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (-196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔC s,τ , which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔC s,τ at 2 °C to -232 ± 52 PgC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Overview of the SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division Activities and Technical Projects

The SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division activities include identification and fulfillment of joint industry, government, and academia needs for development and implementation of RMSL technologies. Four Projects in the Probabilistic Methods area and two in the area of RMSL have been identified. These are: (1) Evaluation of Probabilistic Technology - progress has been made toward the selection of probabilistic application cases. Future effort will focus on assessment of multiple probabilistic softwares in solving selected engineering problems using probabilistic methods. Relevance to Industry & Government - Case studies of typical problems encountering uncertainties, results of solutions to these problems run by different codes, and recommendations on which code is applicable for what problems; (2) Probabilistic Input Preparation - progress has been made in identifying problem cases such as those with no data, little data and sufficient data. Future effort will focus on developing guidelines for preparing input for probabilistic analysis, especially with no or little data. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we get bogged down thinking we need a lot of data before we can quantify uncertainties. Not True. There are ways to do credible probabilistic analysis with little data; (3) Probabilistic Reliability - probabilistic reliability literature search has been completed along with what differentiates it from statistical reliability. Work on computation of reliability based on quantification of uncertainties in primitive variables is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Correct reliability computations both at the component and system level are needed so one can design an item based on its expected usage and life span; (4) Real World Applications of Probabilistic Methods (PM) - A draft of volume 1 comprising aerospace applications has been released. Volume 2, a compilation of real world applications of probabilistic methods with essential information demonstrating application type and timehost savings by the use of probabilistic methods for generic applications is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we say, 'The Proof is in the Pudding'. With help from many contributors, we hope to produce such a document. Problem is - not too many people are coming forward due to proprietary nature. So, we are asking to document only minimum information including problem description, what method used, did it result in any savings, and how much?; (5) Software Reliability - software reliability concept, program, implementation, guidelines, and standards are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - software reliability is a complex issue that must be understood & addressed in all facets of business in industry, government, and other institutions. We address issues, concepts, ways to implement solutions, and guidelines for maximizing software reliability; (6) Maintainability Standards - maintainability/serviceability industry standard/guidelines and industry best practices and methodologies used in performing maintainability/ serviceability tasks are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - Any industry or government process, project, and/or tool must be maintained and serviced to realize the life and performance it was designed for. We address issues and develop guidelines for optimum performance & life.

Singhal, Surendra N.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbations

Atmospheric photochemistry models have been used to predict the sensitivity of the ozone layer to various perturbations. These same models also predict concentrations of chemical species in the present day atmosphere which can be compared to observations. Model results for both present day values and sensitivity to perturbation depend upon input data for reaction rates, photodissociation rates, and boundary conditions. A method of combining the results of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with the existing set of present atmospheric species measurements is developed. The method is used to examine the range of values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine perturbations that is possible within the currently accepted ranges for input data. It is found that model runs which predict ozone column losses much greater than 10 percent as a result of present fluorocarbon fluxes produce concentrations and column amounts in the present atmosphere which are inconsistent with the measurements for ClO, HCl, NO, NO2, and HNO3.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmark Calculation for the Peach Bottom Unit 2 Cycles 1-3 Using the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 Code Package

In this study, benchmark calculations were performed for Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3 to validate the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library by comparing the simulated results with the measured data. The benchmark results will be used to evaluate uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for boiling water reactor physics analysis for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity and assembly power peaking factors. This report details plant and fuel design specifications and input data for SCALE/Polaris, GenPMAXS and PARCS. Additionally, detailed information is provided for all the input and output files produced for the benchmark calculations. The benchmark results were summarized such that they can be used to evaluate uncertainties with other benchmark results for key nuclear parameters.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fantômas unconfined: global QCD fits with Bézier parameterizations

Fantômas is a C++ toolkit for exploring the parametrization dependence of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and other correlator functions in quantum chromodynamics (QCD). Fantômas facilitates the generation of adaptable polynomial parametrizations for PDFs, called metamorphs, to find best-fit PDF solutions and quantify the epistemic uncertainty associated with the parametrizations during their fitting. The method employs Bézier curves as universal approximators for a variety of PDF shapes. Integrated into the xFitter framework for the global QCD analysis, Fantômas provides a foundation for general models of PDFs, while reducing the computational time compared to the approaches utilizing traditional polynomial parametrizations as well as providing an interpretable alternative to neural-network-based models. This paper outlines the structure and practical usage of the Fantômas toolkit, including its inputs, outputs, and implementation within xFitter. It also provides a practical example of using Fantômas for uncertainty quantification as well as the combination of PDF fits into a single ensemble.

Bézier curves↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmark Calculation for the Hatch Unit 1 Cycles 1-3 Using the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 Code Package

This study was the performance of the benchmark calculation for the Hatch Unit 1 cycles 1–3, to validate the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library by comparing the simulated results with the measured data. The benchmark results will be used in evaluating uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for boiling water reactor (BWR) physics analysis for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity and assembly power peaking factors. This report details plant and fuel design specifications and input data for SCALE/Polaris, GenPMAXS and PARCS, and additionally, detailed information is provided for all the input and output files produced for the benchmark calculations. The benchmark results were summarized such that they can be used in evaluating uncertainties for key nuclear parameters with other BWR benchmark results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Algorithm 1049: The Delaunay Density Diagnostic

Accurate approximation of a real-valued function depends on two aspects of the available data: the density of inputs within the domain of interest and the variation of the outputs over that domain. There are few methods for assessing whether the density of inputs is sufficient to identify the relevant variations in outputs—i.e., the “geometric scale” of the function—despite the fact that sampling density is closely tied to the success or failure of an approximation method. In this article, we introduce a general purpose, computational approach to detecting the geometric scale of real-valued functions over a fixed domain using a deterministic interpolation technique from computational geometry. The algorithm is intended to work on scalar data in moderate dimensions (2–10). Our algorithm is based on the observation that a sequence of piecewise linear interpolants will converge to a continuous function at a quadratic rate (in L 2 norm) if and only if the data are sampled densely enough to distinguish the feature from noise (assuming sufficiently regular sampling). We present numerical experiments demonstrating how our method can identify feature scale, estimate uncertainty in feature scale, and assess the sampling density for fixed (i.e., static) datasets of input–output pairs. Finally, we include analytical results in support of our numerical findings and have released lightweight code that can be adapted for use in a variety of data science settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations

Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmark Calculation for the Quad Cities Unit 1 Cycles 1-3 Using the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 Code Package

In this study, benchmark calculations were performed for the Quad Cities Unit 1 cycles 1–3 to validate the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 code package with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library by comparing the simulated results with the measured data. The benchmark results will be used in evaluating uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for boiling water reactor physics analysis for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity and assembly power peaking factors. This report details plant and fuel design specifications and input data for SCALE/Polaris, GenPMAXS, and PARCS; additionally, detailed information is provided for all the input and output files produced for the benchmark calculations. The benchmark results are summarized herein so that they can be used to evaluate uncertainties with other benchmark results for key nuclear parameters.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1994

The resonance lines of MG2 as diagnostics of the upper solar chromosphere

The resonance lines of singly ionized magnesium, the MgII h&k lines at about 280 nm, are two of the small number of lines in the solar spectrum that are optically thick in the chromospheric part of the solar atmosphere. Potentially these lines contain information on the initial temperature rise that occurs at the top of the photosphere. Unfortunately, few good observations of the lines exist due to their wavelength near 280 nm the ultraviolet. However, a fair number of observations (on the order of 200) are available from the data base of the UltraViolet Polarimeter and Spectrometer (UVSP) instrument that flew on board of NASA's Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite. In addition, this data base contains a number of spectra that include the Mg I resonance line at (lambda)285.2nm, just longward of the h&k lines. The neutral magnesium line is not as strong as its ionic counterparts and samples slightly lower parts of the atmosphere. Its width is a sensitive diagnostic of the ionization balance between neutral and singly ionized magnesium, which determines the opacity scale (and formation height) of other diagnostically important MgI lines like the 457.1 nm intercombination line, the magnesium b lines and the infrared MgI emission lines near 12 microns. Analysis of the observed line profiles shows that it is necessary to include the effects of partial frequency redistribution (PRD) in the formation of the line as in the case of the h&k lines. This implies that the core of the line is very sensitive to the way scattering is treated in the modeling of the line, and in turn this allows us to separate the uncertain effects in the atomic data (viz. the Van der Waals broadening) from the uncertainties in the underlying atmospheric model. The main objective of this research was to compare observed spectra of the magnesium resonance lines against theoretical line profiles calculated from recent models of the solar atmosphere by Fontenla et al., hereafter called FAL. These models extend earlier solar models by Avrett et al. and provide yet a better match between observed and calculated spectra, in particular of the hydrogen Lyman line, by including the effects of ambipolar diffusion of hydrogen and helium in the mass and energy transport equations for the chromosphere-corona transition region. Although the transition region models can be built self-consistently (without additional observational input) once the proper boundary conditions are given at the top of the chromosphere, there are uncertainties in the models precisely because these boundary conditions are not well known. With the analysis of UVSP magnesium observations we strive to constrain these uncertainties.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards fully predictive gyrokinetic full- f simulations: validation and triangularity studies in TCV

Designing economical magnetic confinement fusion power plants motivates computational tools that can estimate plasma behavior from engineering parameters without direct reliance on experimental measurement of the plasma profiles. In this work, we present full-f global long-wavelength gyrokinetic simulations of edge and scrape-off layer turbulence in tokamaks that use only magnetic geometry, heating power, and particle inventory as inputs. Unlike many modeling approaches that employ free parameters fitted to experimental data, raising uncertainties when extrapolating to reactor scales. This approach directly simulates turbulence and resulting profiles through gyrokinetics without such empirical adjustments. This is achieved via an adaptive sourcing algorithm in Gkeyll that strictly controls energy injection and emulates particle sourcing due to neutral recycling. We show that the simulated kinetic profiles compare reasonably well with Thomson scattering and Langmuir probe data for Tokamak á Configuration Variable (TCV) discharge #65125, and that the simulations reproduce characteristic features such as blob transport and self-organized electric fields. Applying the same framework to study triangularity effects suggests mechanisms contributing to the improved confinement reported for negative triangularity (NT). Simulations of TCV discharges #65125 and #65130 indicate that NT increases the E x B flow shear (by about 20% in these cases), which correlates with reduced turbulent losses and a modest change in the distribution of power exhaust to the vessel wall. While the physical models contain approximations that can be refined in future work, the predictive capability demonstrated here, evolving multiple profile relaxation times with kinetic electron and ion models in hundreds of GPU hours, indicates the feasibility of using Gkeyll to support design studies of fusion devices.

Hoffmann, Antoine Cyril David [Princeton Plasma Ph↗