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NASA NTRS1998

Recovery of 29 Second Oscillations in Hubble Space Telescope Eclipse Observations of the Cataclysmic Variable UX Ursae Majoris

Low-amplitude (approximately 0.5%) 29 s oscillations have been detected in Hubble Space Telescope Faint Object Spectrograph eclipse observations of the nova-like cataclysmic variable UX UMa. These are the same dwarf nova-type oscillations that were originally discovered in this system in 1972. The 29 s oscillations are seen in one pair of eclipse sequences obtained with the FOS/PRISM in 1994 November but not in a similar pair obtained with the FOS/GI60L grating in August of the same year. The oscillations in the PRISM data are sinusoidal to within the small observational errors and undergo an approximately - 360' phase shift during eclipses (i.e., one cycle is lost). The amplitudes are highest at pre-eclipse orbital phases and exhibit a rather gradual eclipse whose shape is roughly similar to, although perhaps slightly narrower than, LTX UMa's overall light curve in the PRISM bandpass (2000-8000 A). Spectra of the oscillations have been constructed from pre-, mid, and post-eclipse data segments of the November observations. The spectra obtained from the out-of-eclipse segments are extremely blue, and only lower limits can be placed on the temperature of the source that dominates the modulated flux at these orbital phases. Lower limits derived from blackbody (stellar atmosphere) model fits to these data are >or equal to 95,000 K (> or equal to 85,000 K); the corresponding upper limits on the projected area of this source are all less than 2% of the white dwarf (WD) surface area. By contrast, oscillation spectra derived from mid- eclipse data segments are much redder. Fits to these spectra yield temperature estimates in the range 20,000 K approximately greater T and T approximately less than 30,000 K for both blackbody and stellar atmosphere models and corresponding projected areas of a few percent of the WD surface area. These estimates are subject to revision if the modulated emission is optically thin. We suggest that the ultimate source of the oscillations is a hot, compact region near disk center, but that a significant fraction of the observed, modulated flux is due to reprocessing of the light emitted by this source in the accretion disk atmosphere. The compact source is occulted at orbital phases near mid-eclipse, leaving only part of the more extended reprocessing region(s) to produce the weak oscillations that persist even at conjunction. The highly sinusoidal oscillation pulse shape does not permit the identification of the compact comonent in this model with emission produced by a rotating disturbance in the inner disk or in a classical, equatorial boundary layer. Instead, this component could arise in a bright spot on the surface of the WD, possibly associated with a magnetic pole. However, a standard intermediate polar model can also be ruled out since UX UMa's oscillation period has been seen to change on timescales much shorter than the minimum timescale required to spin up the WD by accretion torques. A model invoking magnetically controlled accretion onto differentially rotating WD surface layers may be viable, but needs more theoretical work.

Knigge, Christian↗
NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of the December 1998 Stratospheric Major Warming

Prior to 1991, major warmings (defined by increasing zonal mean temperatures and zonal mean easterly winds from 60degN to the pole at 10 hPa) typically occurred approximately once every two Arctic winters; a major warming in mid-Dec. 1998 was the first since Feb. 1991. The Dec. 1998 warming was also the second earliest on record. The earliest, and the only other major warming on record before the end of Dec. was in early Dec 1987; prior to that, the earliest was in late Dec./early Jan. 1984-85. The 1984-85 and 1987 warmings resulted in the warmest and weakest lower stratospheric polar vortices in the 20 years before 1998-99. Fig. 1 compares temperatures and vortex strength in 1998-99 with those in the previous 20 years, using the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) record; 1987-88 and 1984-85 are also highlighted. The Dec. 1998 warming had a more pronounced effect on mid-stratospheric temperatures than the Dec. 1987 warming (Fig. 1a), although smaller than that of warmings later in winter (e.g., 1984-85). 10-hPa temperatures fell well below average again in late Jan. 1999 and remained unusually low until an early final warming began in late Feb. 840 K PV gradients (Fig. 1c) set a record minimum in Jan. 1999, but were near average in Feb before the final warming. The effect of the Dec. 1998 warming on lower stratospheric temperatures was comparable to that of other major warmings; there was a brief period of record-high minimum 46-hPa temperatures in early Jan 1999 (Fig. 1b), and temperatures then fell to near average for a short period in mid-Feb. Lower stratospheric PV gradients were the weakest on record during the 1998-99 winter (Fig. 1d). The evolution of the vortex and minimum temperatures during 1998-99 was remarkably similar to that during 1987-88, the only previous year when a major warming was observed before the end of Dec.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Angular and Seasonal Variation of Spectral Surface Reflectance Ratios: Implications for the Remote Sensing of Aerosol over Land

We obtain valuable information on the angular and seasonal variability of surface reflectance using a hand-held spectrometer from a light aircraft. The data is used to test a procedure that allows us to estimate visible surface reflectance from the longer wavelength 2.1 micrometer channel (mid-IR). Estimating or avoiding surface reflectance in the visible is a vital first step in most algorithms that retrieve aerosol optical thickness over land targets. The data indicate that specular reflection found when viewing targets from the forward direction can severely corrupt the relationships between the visible and 2.1 micrometer reflectance that were derived from nadir data. There is a month by month variation in the ratios between the visible and the mid-IR, weakly correlated to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). If specular reflection is not avoided, the errors resulting from estimating surface reflectance from the mid-IR exceed the acceptable limit of DELTA-rho approximately 0.01 in roughly 40% of the cases, using the current algorithm. This is reduced to 25% of the cases if specular reflection is avoided. An alternative method that uses path radiance rather than explicitly estimating visible surface reflectance results in similar errors. The two methods have different strengths and weaknesses that require further study.

Remer, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Fuel Plume Image Mixing Analysis Formulation With Proper Treatment of Non-Constant Velocity Flowfields

A previously developed technique allows an estimate of integral mixing to be obtained from an image of laser scattered light from particle seeded fuel in the hypervelocity flow through a scramjet combustor. This previous mixing analysis formulation contains an assumption of a constant velocity flowfield across the plane of the fuel plume image. For high-speed scramjet combustors, the velocity flowfield is quite uniform and an assumption of constant velocity works well. Applying this same mixing analysis technique to fuel plume images obtained from a mid-speed scramjet combustor makes it desirable to remove the constant velocity assumption. This is due to the non-uniform velocity flowfields present in mid-speed scramjet combustors. A new formulation of the mixing analysis methodology is developed and presented so that the technique can be applied to a mid-speed scramjet combustor without the need to assume a constant velocity flowfield.

Mekkes, Gregory L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Thermal Performance of LANDSAT-7 ETM+ Instruments During First Year in Flight

Landsat-7 was successfully launched into orbit on April 15, 1999. After devoting three months to the t bakeout and cool-down of the radiative cooler, and on- t orbit checkout, the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) began the normal imaging phase of the mission in mid-July 1999. This paper presents the thermal performance of the ETM+ from mid-July 1999 to mid-May 2000. The flight temperatures are compared to the yellow temperature limits, and worst cold case and worst hot case flight temperature predictions in the 15-orbit mission design profile. The flight temperature predictions were generated by a thermal model, which was correlated to the observatory thermal balance test data. The yellow temperature limits were derived from the flight temperature predictions, plus some margins. The yellow limits work well in flight, so that only several minor changes to them were needed. Overall, the flight temperatures and flight temperature predictions have good agreement. Based on the ETM+ thermal vacuum qualification test, new limits on the imaging time are proposed to increase the average duty cycle, and to resolve the problems experienced by the Mission Operation Team.

Choi, Michael K.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Ozone in the Pacific Troposphere from Ozonesonde Observations

Ozone vertical profile measurements obtained from ozonesondes flown at Fiji, Samoa, Tahiti and the Galapagos are used to characterize ozone in the troposphere over the tropical Pacific. There is a significant seasonal variation at each of these sites. At sites in both the eastern and western Pacific, ozone is highest at almost all levels in the troposphere during the September-November season and lowest during, March-May. There is a relative maximum at all of the sites in the mid-troposphere during all seasons of the year (the largest amounts are usually found near the tropopause). This maximum is particularly pronounced during, the September-November season. On average, throughout the troposphere at all seasons, the Galapagos has larger ozone amounts than the western Pacific sites. A trajectory climatology is used to identify the major flow regimes that are associated with the characteristic ozone behavior at various altitudes and seasons. The enhanced ozone seen in the mid-troposphere during September-November is associated with flow from the continents. In the western Pacific this flow is usually from southern Africa (although 10-day trajectories do not always reach the continent), but also may come from Australia and Indonesia. In the Galapagos the ozone peak in the mid-troposphere is seen in flow from the South American continent and particularly from northern Brazil. The time of year and flow characteristics associated with the ozone mixing ratio peaks seen in both the western and eastern Pacific suggest that these enhanced ozone values result from biomass burning. In the upper troposphere low ozone amounts are seen with flow that originates in the convective western Pacific.

Oltmans, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Variability of the Horizontal Circulation in the Troposphere and Stratosphere: A Comparison

The variability of the horizontal circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is compared by using various approaches. Spatial degrees of freedom (dof) on different time scales were derived. Modes of variability were computed in geopotential height fields at the tropospheric and stratospheric pressure levels by applying multivariate statistical approaches. Features of the spatial and temporal variability of the winterly zonal wind were studied with the help of recurrence and persistence analyses. The geopotential height and zonally-averaged zonal wind at the 50-, 500- and 1000-hPa level are used to investigate the behavior of the horizontal circulation in the lower stratosphere, mid-troposphere and at the near surface level, respectively. It is illustrated that the features of the variability of the horizontal circulation are very similar in the mid-troposphere and at the near surface level. Due to the filtering of tropospheric disturbances by the stratospheric and upper tropospheric zonal mean flow, the variability of the stratospheric circulation exhibits less spatial complexity than the circulation at tropospheric pressure levels. There exist enormous differences in the number of degrees of freedom (or free variability modes) between both atmospheric layers. Results of the analyses clearly show that the concept of a zonally symmetric AO with a simple structure in the troposphere similar to the one in the stratosphere is not valid. It is concluded that the spatially filtered climate change signal can be detected earlier in the stratosphere than in the mid-troposphere or at the near surface level.

Perlwitz, Judith↗
NASA NTRS2001

An Overview of the SOLVE-THESEO 2000 Campaign

Between November 1999 and April 2000, two major field experiments, the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) and the Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone (THESEO 2000), collaborated to form the largest field campaign yet mounted to study Arctic ozone loss. This international campaign involved more than 500 scientists from over 20 countries spread across the high and mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The main scientific aims of SOLVE-THESEO 2000 were to study (a) the processes leading to ozone loss in the Arctic vortex and (b) the effect on ozone amounts over northern mid-latitudes. The campaign included satellites, heavy lift balloon launches, 6 different aircraft, ground stations, and scores of ozone-sonde. Campaign activities were principally conducted in 3 intensive measurement phases centered on early December 1999, late January 2000, and early March 2000. Observations made during the campaign showed that temperatures were unusually cold in the polar lower stratosphere over the course of the 1999-2000 winter. These cold temperatures resulted in the formation of extensive polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) across the Arctic. Heterogeneous chemical reactions on the surfaces of the PSC particles produced high levels of reactive chlorine within the polar vortex by early January. This reactive chlorine catalytically destroyed about 60% of the ozone in a layer near 20 km between late January and mid-March 2000.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Inference of Global Mean Temperature Trend and Climate Change from MSU and AMSU

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) radiometers flown on the NOAA operational satellite series are potentially valuable as global temperature monitoring devices. Spencer and Christy pioneered the analysis of mid-tropospheric temperature, given by MSU Channel 2 (Ch 2) at 53.74 GHz, to derive the global temperature trend. Also, in addition to monitoring global temperature, these microwave radiometers have the potential to reveal interannual climate signals in tropics. We have analyzed the data of MSU Ch 2 and AMSU Ch 5 (53.6 GHz) from the NOAA operational satellites for the period 1980 to 2000, utilizing the NOAA calibration procedure. The data are corrected for the satellite orbital drift based on the temporal changes of the on-board warm blackbody temperature. From our analysis, we find that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 Kdecade(sup -1) during 1980 to 2000. From an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the MSU global data, we find that the mid-tropospheric temperature in middle and high latitudes responds to the ENSO forcing during the Northern Hemisphere Winter in a distinct manner. This mid-latitude response is opposite in phase to that in the tropics. This result is in accord with simulations performed with an ECMWF global spectral model. This study shows a potential use of the satellite observations for climatic change.

Prabhakara, Cuddapah↗
NASA NTRS2001

Are Stronger North-Atlantic Southwesterlies the Forcing to the Late-Winter Warming in Europe?

We examine a possible mechanism leading to late-winter warming and thus to an early spring in Europe. From the NCEP Reanalysis, we extract for the years 1948-1999 ocean-surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and air temperatures at the surface, T(sub s), and at the 500 mb level, T(sub 500), in late-winter and spring. T(sub s) is extracted at six European locations, all at 50.5 N, ranging in longitude from 1.9 E (northeastern France) to 26.2 E (Ukraine). To quantify the advection of maritime air into Europe, we evaluate for 3-pentad groups the Index I(sub na) of the southwesterlies at 45 N; 20 W: I(sub na) is the average wind speed at this point if the direction is from the quadrant 180-270 deg (when the direction is different, the contribution counts as zero). In late winter correlations C(sub it) between the Index I(sub na) and the temperature T(sub s) are substantial, up to the 0.6 level, in western Europe (but weaker correlations for Poland and Ukraine). C(sub it) drops sharply by mid-March, taking occasionally negative values subsequently. This drop in C(sub it) indicates that maritime air advection is no longer associated closely with the surface-air warming, the role of immolation becomes important, and thus the drop in C(sub it) marks the arrival of spring. Correlations C(sub i delta) between I(sub na) and our lapse-rate parameter delta, the difference between T(sub s) and T(sub 500), indicate that the flow of warm maritime-air from the North Atlantic into this 'corridor' at 50.5 N is predominantly at low tropospheric level. By computing the best linear fit to I(sub na) and T(sub s), the trends for the period 1948-1999 are evaluated. The trends are appreciable in the second half of February and the first half of March. Our 3-pentad analysis points to the interval from mid-February to mid-March as the end-of-winter period in which the southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic become stronger and the surface-air temperatures in Europe rise markedly, the lapse rate becomes steeper, and concurrently the longitudinal temperature gradient between the Somme (France) and the Oder (Germany/Poland border) is reduced by 0.8 C, that is, by 20% of its 1948 value. Our thesis, that the observed late-winter warming and the corollary advancement of spring in Europe resulted at least in part from stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, merits further investigations.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Comparing Ultraviolet Spectra Against Calculations: First Results

The five-year goal of this effort is to calculate high fidelity mid-UV spectra for individual stars and stellar systems for a wide range of ages, abundances, and abundance ratios. In this first year, the emphasis was placed on revising the list of atomic line parameters used to calculate mid-UV spectra. First, new identifications of atomic lines and measurements of their transition probabilities were obtained for lines of the first and second ionization stages of iron-peak elements. Second, observed mid-UV and optical spectra for standard stars were re-analyzed and compared to new calculations, to refine the determination of transition probabilities and to estimate the identity of lines still missing from the laboratory lists. As evidenced by the figures, a dramatic improvement has resulted in the reproduction of the spectra of standard stars by the calculations.

Peterson, Ruth C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Characterization of Al-Cu-Mg-Ag Alloy RX226-T8 Plate

Aluminum-copper-magnesium-silver (Al-Cu-Mg-Ag) alloys that were developed for thermal stability also offer attractive ambient temperature strength-toughness combinations, and therefore, can be considered for a broad range of airframe structural applications. The current study evaluated Al-Cu-Mg-Ag alloy RX226-T8 in plate gages and compared performance with sheet gage alloys of similar composition. Uniaxial tensile properties, plane strain initiation fracture toughness, and plane stress tearing resistance of RX226-T8 were examined at ambient temperature as a function of orientation and thickness location in the plate. Properties were measured near the surface and at the mid-plane of the plate. Tensile strengths were essentially isotropic, with variations in yield and ultimate tensile strengths of less than 2% as a function of orientation and through-thickness location. However, ductility varied by more than 15% with orientation. Fracture toughness was generally higher at the mid-plane and greater for the L-T orientation, although the differences were small near the surface of the plate. Metallurgical analysis indicated that the microstructure was primarily recrystallized with weak texture and was uniform through the plate with the exception of a fine-grained layer near the surface of the plate. Scanning electron microscope analysis revealed Al-Cu-Mg second phase particles which varied in composition and were primarily located on grain boundaries parallel to the rolling direction. Fractography of toughness specimens for both plate locations and orientations revealed that fracture occurred predominantly by transgranular microvoid coalescence. Introduction High-strength, low-density Al-Cu-Mg-Ag alloys were initially developed to replace conventional 2000 (Al-Cu-Mg) and 7000 (Al-Zn-Cu-Mg) series aluminum alloys for aircraft structural applications [1]. During the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) program, improvements in thermal stability were demonstrated for candidate aircraft wing and fuselage skin materials through the addition of silver to Al-Cu-Mg alloys based on Al 2519 chemistry [2]. Thermal stability of the resulting Al-Cu-Mg-Ag alloys, C415-T8 and C416-T8, was due to co-precipitation of the thermally stable . (AlCu) and ' (Al2Cu) strengthening phases [1-4]. The strength and toughness behavior was investigated for these alloys produced as 0.090-inch thick rolled sheet in the T8 condition and after various thermal exposures. The mechanical properties were shown to be competitive with conventional aircraft alloys, 2519-T8 and 2618-T8 [2]. During the Integral Airframe Structure (IAS) program, advanced aluminum alloys were examined for use in an integrally stiffened airframe structure where the skin and stiffeners would be machined from plate and extruded frames would be mechanically attached (see Figure 1) [5]. Advantages of integrally stiffened structure include reduced part count, and reduced assembly times compared to conventional built-up airframe structure. The near-surface properties of a thick plate are of significance for a machined integrally stiffened airframe structure since this represents the skin location. Properties measured at the mid-plane of the plate are more representative of the stiffener web. RX226 was developed to exploit strength-toughness improvements and thermal stability benefits of Al-Cu-Mg-Ag alloys in plate gages. This study evaluated the microstructure and properties of three gages of plate produced in the T8 condition.

Lach, Cynthia L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

African Equatorial and Subtropical Ozone Plumes: Recurrences Timescales of the Brown Cloud Trans-African Plumes and Other Plumes

We have found repeated illustrations in the maps of Total Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) of apparent transport of ozone from the Indian Ocean to the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Most interesting are examples that coincide with the INDOEX observations of late northern winter, 1999. Three soundings associated with the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network help confirm and quantify degree of influence of pollution, lightning, and stratospheric sources, suggesting that perhaps 40% of increased Atlantic ozone could be Asian pollution during periods of maximum identified in the TTO maps. We outline recurrent periods of apparent ozone transport from Indian to Atlantic Ocean regions both during and outside the late-winter period. These are placed in the context of some general observations about factors controlling recurrence timescales for the expression of both equatorial and subtropical plumes. Low-level subtropical plumes are often controlled by frontal systems approaching the Namib coast; these direct mid-level air into either easterly equatorial plumes or westerly mid- troposphere plumes. Equatorial plumes of ozone cross Africa on an easterly path due to the occasional coincidence of two phenomena: (1) lofting of ozone to mid and upper levels, often in the Western Indian Ocean, and (2) the eastward extension of an Equatorial African easterly jet.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Internal Acoustics Measurements of a Full Scale Advanced Ducted Propulsor Demonstrator

Acoustics measurements of a Pratt & Whitney full-scale ADP (Advanced Ducted Propulsor), an ultrahigh by-pass ratio engine, were conducted in the NASA Ames 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel. This paper presents data from measurements taken from sensors on a fan exit guide vane in the ADP. Data from two sensors, one at mid-span and the other at the tip of the fan exit guide vane, are presented. At the blade passage frequency (BPF), the levels observed at the various engine and wind speeds were higher at the mid-span sensor than the tip sensor. The coherence between these internal sensors and external microphones were calculated and plotted as a function of angle (angles ranged from 5 degrees to 160 degrees) relative to the ADP longitudinal axis. At the highest engine and wind speeds, the coherence between the tip sensor and the external microphones was observed to decrease at higher multiples of the BPF. These results suggest that the rotor-stator interaction tones are stronger in the mid-span region than at the tip.

Santa Maria, O. L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Tropical Convective Responses to Microphysical and Radiative Processes: A Sensitivity Study With a 2D Cloud Resolving Model

Prognostic cloud schemes are increasingly used in weather and climate models in order to better treat cloud-radiation processes. Simplifications are often made in such schemes for computational efficiency, like the scheme being used in the National Centers for Environment Prediction models that excludes some microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction. In this study, sensitivity tests with a 2D cloud resolving model are carried out to examine effects of the excluded microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction on tropical thermodynamics and cloud properties. The model is integrated for 10 days with the imposed vertical velocity derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The experiment excluding the depositional growth of snow from cloud ice shows anomalous growth of cloud ice and more than 20% increase of fractional cloud cover, indicating that the lack of the depositional snow growth causes unrealistically large mixing ratio of cloud ice. The experiment excluding the precipitation-radiation interaction displays a significant cooling and drying bias. The analysis of heat and moisture budgets shows that the simulation without the interaction produces more stable upper troposphere and more unstable mid and lower troposphere than does the simulation with the interaction. Thus, the suppressed growth of ice clouds in upper troposphere and stronger radiative cooling in mid and lower troposphere are responsible for the cooling bias, and less evaporation of rain associated with the large-scale subsidence induces the drying in mid and lower troposphere.

Li, Xiao-Fan↗
NASA NTRS2004

Comparing Ultraviolet Spectra against Calculations: Year 2 Results

The five-year goal of this effort is to calculate high fidelity mid-W spectra for individual stars and stellar systems for a wide range of ages, abundances, and abundance ratios. In this second year, the comparison of our calculations against observed high-resolution mid- W spectra was extended to stars as metal-rich as the Sun, and to hotter and cooler stars, further improving the list of atomic line parameters used in the calculations. We also published the application of our calculations based on the earlier list of line parameters to the observed mid-UV and optical spectra of a mildly metal-poor globular cluster in the nearby Andromeda galaxy, Messier 3 1.

Peterson, Ruth C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a crossover between lower atmospheric heating and upper atmospheric cooling that is located at about 90 hPa in the tropics and 30-40 hPa in the polar regions. This results from the combination of continuing increases in greehouse gases and recovery from ozone depletion.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Mechanisms for Diurnal Variability of Global Tropical Rainfall Observed from TRMM

The behavior and various controls of diurnal variability in tropical-subtropical rainfall are investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation measurements retrieved from the three level-2 TRMM standard profile algorithms for the 1998 annual cycle. Results show that diurnal variability characteristics of precipitation are consistent for all three algorithms, providing assurance that TRMM retrievals are producing consistent estimates of rainfall variability. As anticipated, most ocean areas exhibit more rainfall at night, while over most land areas, rainfall peaks during daytime; however, important exceptions are noted. The dominant feature of the oceanic diurnal cycle is a rainfall maximum in late-evening-early-morning (LE-EM) hours, while over land the dominant maximum occurs in the mid- to late afternoon (MLA). In conjunction with these maxima are pronounced seasonal variations of the diurnal amplitudes. Amplitude analysis shows that the diurnal pattern and its seasonal evolution are closely related to the rainfall accumulation pattern and its seasonal evolution. In addition, the horizontal distribution of diurnal variability indicates that for oceanic rainfall, there is a secondary MLA maximum coexisting with the LE-EM maximum at latitudes dominated by large-scale convergence and deep convection. Analogously, there is a preponderancy for an LE EM maximum over land coexisting with the stronger MLA maximum, although it is not evident that this secondary continental feature is closely associated with the large-scale circulation. Neither of the secondary maxima exhibit phase behavior that can be considered semidiurnal in nature. Diurnal rainfall variability over the ocean associated with large-scale convection is clearly an integral component of the general circulation. Phase analysis reveals differences in regional and seasonal features of the diurnal cycle, indicating that underlying forcing mechanisms differ from place to place. This is underscored by the appearance of secondary ocean maxima in the presence of large-scale convection, along with other important features. Among these, there are clear-cut differences between the diurnal variability of seasonal rainfall over the mid-Pacific and Indian Ocean Basins. The mid-Pacific exhibits double maxima in spring and winter but only LE-EM maxima in summer and autumn, while the Indian Ocean exhibits double maxima in spring and summer and only an LE-EM maximum in autumn and winter. There are also evident daytime maxima within the major large-scale marine stratocumulus regions off the west coasts of continents. The study concludes with a discussion concerning how the observational evidence either supports or repudiates possible forcing mechanisms that have been suggested to explain diurnal rainfall variability.

Yang, Song↗