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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments

ABSTRACT In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Pattern Matching in Metadata Graphs via Constraint Checking

Pattern matching is a fundamental tool for answering complex graph queries. Unfortunately, existing solutions have limited capabilities: They do not scale to process large graphs and/or support only a restricted set of search templates or usage scenarios. Moreover, the algorithms at the core of the existing techniques are not suitable for today’s graph processing infrastructures relying on horizontal scalability and shared-nothing clusters, as most of these algorithms are inherently sequential and difficult to parallelize. In this article we present an algorithmic pipeline that bases pattern matching on constraint checking. The key intuition is that each vertex and edge participating in a match has to meet a set of constraints implicitly specified by the search template. These constraints can be verified independently and typically are less expensive to compute than searching the full template. The pipeline we propose generates these constraints and iterates over them to eliminate all the vertices and edges that do not participate in any match, thus reducing the background graph to a subgraph that is the union of all template matches—the complete set of all vertices and edges that participate in at least one match. Additional analysis can be performed on this annotated, reduced graph, such as full match enumeration, match counting, or computing vertex/edge centrality. Furthermore, a vertex-centric formulation for constraint checking algorithms exists, and this makes it possible to harness existing high-performance, vertex-centric graph processing frameworks. This technique (i) enables highly scalable pattern matching in metadata (labeled) graphs; (ii) supports arbitrary patterns with 100% precision; (iii) enables tradeoffs between precision and time-to-solution, while always selects all vertices and edges that participate in matches, thus offering 100% recall; and (iv) supports a set of popular data analytics scenarios. We implement our approach on top of HavoqGT, an open-source asynchronous graph processing framework, and demonstrate its advantages through strong and weak scaling experiments on massive scale real-world (up to 257 billion edges) and synthetic (up to 4.4 trillion edges) labeled graphs, respectively, and at scales (1,024 nodes / 36,864 cores), orders of magnitude larger than used in the past for similar problems. This article serves two purposes: First, it synthesises the knowledge accumulated during a long-term project. Second, it presents new system features, usage scenarios, optimizations, and comparisons with related work that strengthen the confidence that pattern matching based on iterative pruning via constraint checking is an effective and scalable approach in practice. The new contributions include the following: (i) We demonstrate the ability of the constraint checking approach to efficiently support two additional search scenarios that often emerge in practice, interactive incremental search and exploratory search. (ii) We empirically compare our solution with two additional state-of-the-art systems, Arabsque and TriAD. (iii) We show the ability of our solution to accommodate a more diverse range of datasets with varying properties, e.g., scale, skewness, label distribution, and match frequency. (iv) We introduce or extend a number of system features (e.g., work aggregation, load balancing, and the ability to cap the generated traffic) and design optimizations and demonstrate their advantages with respect to improving performance and scalability. (v) We present bottleneck analysis and insights into artifacts that influence performance. (vi) We present a theoretical complexity argument that motivates the performance gains we observe.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2005

CFD Multiphysics Tool

The recent bold initiatives to expand the human presence in space require innovative approaches to the design of propulsion systems whose underlying technology is not yet mature. The space propulsion community has identified a number of candidate concepts. A short list includes solar sails, high-energy-density chemical propellants, electric and electromagnetic accelerators, solar-thermal and nuclear-thermal expanders. For each of these, the underlying physics are relatively well understood. One could easily cite authoritative texts, addressing both the governing equations, and practical solution methods for, e.g. electromagnetic fields, heat transfer, radiation, thermophysics, structural dynamics, particulate kinematics, nuclear energy, power conversion, and fluid dynamics. One could also easily cite scholarly works in which complete equation sets for any one of these physical processes have been accurately solved relative to complex engineered systems. The Advanced Concepts and Analysis Office (ACAO), Space Transportation Directorate, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, has recently released the first alpha version of a set of computer utilities for performing the applicable physical analyses relative to candidate deep-space propulsion systems such as those listed above. PARSEC, Preliminary Analysis of Revolutionary in-Space Engineering Concepts, enables rapid iterative calculations using several physics tools developed in-house. A complete cycle of the entire tool set takes about twenty minutes. PARSEC is a level-zero/level-one design tool. For PARSEC s proof-of-concept, and preliminary design decision-making, assumptions that significantly simplify the governing equation sets are necessary. To proceed to level-two, one wishes to retain modeling of the underlying physics as close as practical to known applicable first principles. This report describes results of collaboration between ACAO, and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU), to begin building a set of level-two design tools for PARSEC. The "CFD Multiphysics Tool" will be the propulsive element of the tool set. The name acknowledges that space propulsion performance assessment is primarily a fluid mechanics problem. At the core of the CFD Multiphysics Tool is an open-source CFD code, HYP, under development at ERAU. ERAU is renowned for its undergraduate degree program in Aerospace Engineering the largest in the nation. The strength of the program is its applications-oriented curriculum, which culminates in one of three two-course Engineering Design sequences: Aerospace Propulsion, Spacecraft, or Aircraft. This same philosophy applies to the HYP Project, albeit with fluid physics modeling commensurate with graduate research. HYP s purpose, like the Multiphysics Tool s, is to enable calculations of real (three-dimensional; geometrically complex; intended for hardware development) applications of high speed and propulsive fluid flows.

Perrell, Eric R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structure of Molten Alkali Chlorides at Charged Interfaces and the Prediction and Interpretation of Their X-ray Reflectivity

The fundamental properties of molten salts have been the subject of research that spans a century. Yet, in the past few years, there has been an unprecedented surge in interest for these systems in the bulk and under confinement by walls and interfaces including under applied potentials. This is driven by the prospect of exciting and very practical energy technologies, including those in the solar and nuclear fields. This article sets to answer two simple but fundamental questions. How does the liquid structure of alkali chlorides change at a real interface when it is charged? Also, how would such changes on the liquid side of the interface be detected in X-ray reflectivity experiments? We use an interface mimicking conductive diamond, which because of its lattice spacing, is an excellent choice for reflectivity experiments. The reason for our interest in X-ray reflectivity is that, as opposed to electrochemical measurements alone, this is likely the only technique in which atomic level information at the liquid side of the interface can be gained under the extreme temperature environments of molten salts. As it will become apparent, the interpretation of reflectivity results in terms of atomic positions is complex when multiple species with different X-ray contrasts on the liquid side are considered. A theoretical scheme termed “the peaks and antipeaks analysis of reflectivity” originally introduced in our prior work (J. Phys. Chem. C2019, 123 (8), 4914–4925) is expanded to interpret the structural changes at the interface as a function of applied electrical bias.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrical Submersible Pumps: A System Modeling Approach for Power Quality Analysis With Variable Frequency Drives

This article proposes a high-level engineering guide to develop an integrated system model for power quality analysis in electrical submersible pump (ESP) applications with variable frequency drives (VFDs). Such analyses are troublesome in the industry due to the complexity of these systems. In this article, simple steps to perform system integration analyses of such arrangements, including torsional analysis, are developed. A simplified VFD-ESP model suitable for coupled electrical and mechanical analysis in steady state is proposed in all their configurations of practical interest. Such a model can be easily implemented in common simulation software, significantly reducing engineering efforts for implementation and analysis. The focus of the proposed model is the prediction of ESP failures that might result from a poor power quality caused by VFDs. Analytical expressions of different types of harmonics in these systems, as well as their accurate locations in the frequency domain, including their interharmonics and common-mode harmonics, are derived for this purpose. Further, the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through offline and real-time hybrid simulation results. Finally, a comparison between simulation results obtained using the proposed model and measurements collected on a down-scale laboratory prototype is carried out to demonstrate the accuracy of the suggested modeling approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictor-corrector models for lightweight massive machine-type communications in Industry 4.0

Future Industry 4.0 scenarios are characterized by seamless integration between computational and physical processes. To achieve this objective, dense platforms made of small sensing nodes and other resource constraint devices are ubiquitously deployed. All these devices have a limited number of computational resources, just enough to perform the simple operation they are in charge of. The remaining operations are delegated to powerful gateways that manage sensing nodes, but resources are never unlimited, and as more and more devices are deployed on Industry 4.0 platforms, gateways present more problems to handle massive machine-type communications. Although the problems are diverse, those related to security are especially critical. To enable sensing nodes to establish secure communications, several semiconductor companies are currently promoting a new generation of devices based on Physical Unclonable Functions, whose usage grows every year in many real industrial scenarios. Those hardware devices do not consume any computational resource but force the gateway to keep large key-value catalogues for each individual node. In this context, memory usage is not scalable and processing delays increase exponentially with each new node on the platform. In this paper, we address this challenge through predictor-corrector models, representing the key-value catalogues. Models are mathematically complex, but we argue that they consume less computational resources than current approaches. The lightweight models are based on complex functions managed as Laurent series, cubic spline interpolations, and Boolean functions also developed as series. Unknown parameters in these models are predicted, and eventually corrected to calculate the output value for each given key. The initial parameters are based on the Kane Yee formula. An experimental analysis and a performance evaluation are provided in the experimental section, showing that the proposed approach causes a significant reduction in the resource consumption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1988

On-line object feature extraction for multispectral scene representation

A new on-line unsupervised object-feature extraction method is presented that reduces the complexity and costs associated with the analysis of the multispectral image data and data transmission, storage, archival and distribution. The ambiguity in the object detection process can be reduced if the spatial dependencies, which exist among the adjacent pixels, are intelligently incorporated into the decision making process. The unity relation was defined that must exist among the pixels of an object. Automatic Multispectral Image Compaction Algorithm (AMICA) uses the within object pixel-feature gradient vector as a valuable contextual information to construct the object's features, which preserve the class separability information within the data. For on-line object extraction the path-hypothesis and the basic mathematical tools for its realization are introduced in terms of a specific similarity measure and adjacency relation. AMICA is applied to several sets of real image data, and the performance and reliability of features is evaluated.

Ghassemian, Hassan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy-resolved neutron imaging and diffraction including grain orientation mapping using event camera technology

Time-of-flight neutron diffraction and energy-resolved imaging each provide unique perspectives into material properties. Neutron diffraction is useful for assessing microstructural parameters such as phase composition, texture, and dislocation densities, though it typically provides averaged data over the sampled volume. Energy-resolved imaging, on the other hand, offers both spatial and spectral information by detecting Bragg edges and neutron absorption resonances, which enables detailed mapping of microstructure and isotopic composition. When combined, these techniques have the potential to enrich our understanding of material behavior across different scales, enhancing our understanding of complex materials. Traditionally, these modalities are conducted on separate instruments, which is time-consuming and poses challenges for data integration. Here, we report the integration of the LumaCam, an event-mode energy-resolved neutron imaging camera with the HIPPO time-of-flight diffractometer at LANSCE. This integration enables simultaneous diffraction and imaging across the full spectrum, with analysis optimized for diffraction and Bragg-edge imaging in the thermal range (0.45–10 Å) and resonance imaging in the epithermal range (0.5–3000 eV), facilitating comprehensive multi-modal analysis. We demonstrate its capabilities through case studies, including spatial mapping of grain orientations in a steel sample and accurate thickness estimations for irregular samples including a depleted uranium cylinder and a natural silver-containing mineral specimen. The combined setup enhances real-time sample alignment and provides comprehensive data for crystal structure, texture, and isotopic composition analysis. This approach opens new possibilities for advanced applications in nuclear engineering, archaeology, and materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Periodicity significance testing with null-signal templates: reassessment of PTF’s SMBH binary candidates

Periodograms are widely employed for identifying periodicity in time series data, yet they often struggle to accurately quantify the statistical significance of detected periodic signals when the data complexity precludes reliable simulations. We develop a data-driven approach to address this challenge by introducing a null-signal template (NST). The NST is created by carefully randomizing the period of each cycle in the periodogram template, rendering it non-periodic. It has the same frequentist properties as a periodic signal template, and we show with simulations that the distribution of false positives is the same as with the original periodic template, regardless of the underlying data. Thus, performing a periodicity search with the NST acts as an effective simulation of the null (no-signal) hypothesis, without having to simulate the noise properties of the data. We apply the NST method to the supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB) search in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), where Charisi et al. had previously proposed 33 high signal-to-noise candidates utilizing simulations to quantify their significance. Our approach reveals that these simulations do not capture the complexity of the real data. There are no statistically significant periodic signal detections above the non-periodic background. To improve the search sensitivity, we introduce a Gaussian quadrature based algorithm for the Bayes Factor with correlated noise as a test statistic. We show with simulations that this improves sensitivity to true signals by more than an order of magnitude. However, the Bayes Factor approach also results in no statistically significant detections in the PTF data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving disorder in (3D) real space: a comparative study of the three-dimensional difference pair distribution function and atomic resolution holography reconstructions

The quantitative analysis of local ordering principles in disordered crystalline systems has gained much attention over the past few years, as it is often considered crucial for optimizing material functionality. This development has been driven by significant advancements in computational and experimental methods, which have led to the establishment and widespread use of various analytical techniques. In this study, we perform model calculations to compare the effectiveness of atomic resolution holography and three-dimensional difference pair distribution function analysis (3D-ΔPDF). Using Cu 3 Au as a model system, we demonstrate an approach to derive local order parameters quantitatively and show that both techniques are well suited to quantifying chemical short-range order correlations and local bond-distance variations. By evaluating the strengths and limitations of both techniques, we advocate for their combined use to solve complex short-range order problems accurately.

3D-ΔPDF↗
NASA NTRS2000

Engine-Scale Combustor Rig Designed, Fabricated, and Tested for Combustion Instability Control Research

Low-emission combustor designs are prone to combustor instabilities. Because active control of these instabilities may allow future combustors to meet both stringent emissions and performance requirements, an experimental combustor rig was developed for investigating methods of actively suppressing combustion instabilities. The experimental rig has features similar to a real engine combustor and exhibits instabilities representative of those in aircraft gas turbine engines. Experimental testing in the spring of 1999 demonstrated that the rig can be tuned to closely represent an instability observed in engine tests. Future plans are to develop and demonstrate combustion instability control using this experimental combustor rig. The NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field is leading the Combustion Instability Control program to investigate methods for actively suppressing combustion instabilities. Under this program, a single-nozzle, liquid-fueled research combustor rig was designed, fabricated, and tested. The rig has many of the complexities of a real engine combustor, including an actual fuel nozzle and swirler, dilution cooling, and an effusion-cooled liner. Prior to designing the experimental rig, a survey of aircraft engine combustion instability experience identified an instability observed in a prototype engine as a suitable candidate for replication. The frequency of the instability was 525 Hz, with an amplitude of approximately 1.5-psi peak-to-peak at a burner pressure of 200 psia. The single-nozzle experimental combustor rig was designed to preserve subcomponent lengths, cross sectional area distribution, flow distribution, pressure-drop distribution, temperature distribution, and other factors previously found to be determinants of burner acoustic frequencies, mode shapes, gain, and damping. Analytical models were used to predict the acoustic resonances of both the engine combustor and proposed experiment. The analysis confirmed that the test rig configuration and engine configuration had similar longitudinal acoustic characteristics, increasing the likelihood that the engine instability would be replicated in the rig. Parametric analytical studies were performed to understand the influence of geometry and condition variations and to establish a combustion test plan. Cold-flow experiments verified that the design values of area and flow distributions were obtained. Combustion test results established the existence of a longitudinal combustion instability in the 500-Hz range with a measured amplitude approximating that observed in the engine. Modifications to the rig configuration during testing also showed the potential for injector independence. The research combustor rig was developed in partnership with Pratt & Whitney of West Palm Beach, Florida, and United Technologies Research Center of East Hartford, Connecticut. Experimental testing of the combustor rig took place at United Technologies Research Center.

DeLaat, John C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Program Instrumentation and Trace Analysis

Several attempts have been made recently to apply techniques such as model checking and theorem proving to the analysis of programs. This shall be seen as a current trend to analyze real software systems instead of just their designs. This includes our own effort to develop a model checker for Java, the Java PathFinder 1, one of the very first of its kind in 1998. However, model checking cannot handle very large programs without some kind of abstraction of the program. This paper describes a complementary scalable technique to handle such large programs. Our interest is turned on the observation part of the equation: How much information can be extracted about a program from observing a single execution trace? It is our intention to develop a technology that can be applied automatically and to large full-size applications, with minimal modification to the code. We present a tool, Java PathExplorer (JPaX), for exploring execution traces of Java programs. The tool prioritizes scalability for completeness, and is directed towards detecting errors in programs, not to prove correctness. One core element in JPaX is an instrumentation package that allows to instrument Java byte code files to log various events when executed. The instrumentation is driven by a user provided script that specifies what information to log. Examples of instructions that such a script can contain are: 'report name and arguments of all called methods defined in class C, together with a timestamp'; 'report all updates to all variables'; and 'report all acquisitions and releases of locks'. In more complex instructions one can specify that certain expressions should be evaluated and even that certain code should be executed under various conditions. The instrumentation package can hence be seen as implementing Aspect Oriented Programming for Java in the sense that one can add functionality to a Java program without explicitly changing the code of the original program, but one rather writes an aspect and compiles it into the original program using the instrumentation. Another core element of JPaX is an observation package that supports the analysis of the generated event stream. Two kinds of analysis are currently supported. In temporal analysis the execution trace is evaluated against formulae written in temporal logic. We have implemented a temporal logic evaluator on finite traces using the Maude rewriting system from SRI International, USA. Temporal logic is defined in Maude by giving its syntax as a signature and its semantics as rewrite equations. The resulting semantics is extremely efficient and can handle event streams of hundreds of millions events in few minutes. Furthermore, the implementation is very succinct. The second form of even stream analysis supported is error pattern analysis where an execution trace is analyzed using various error detection algorithms that can identify error-prone programming practices that may potentially lead to errors in some different executions. Two such algorithms focusing on concurrency errors have been implemented in JPaX, one for deadlocks and the other for data races. It is important to note, that a deadlock or data race potential does not need to occur in order for its potential to be detected with these algorithms. This is what makes them very scalable in practice. The data race algorithm implemented is the Eraser algorithm from Compaq, however adopted to Java. The tool is currently being applied to a code base for controlling a spacecraft by the developers of that software in order to evaluate its applicability.

Havelund, Klaus↗
NASA NTRS1986

Analysis and specification tools in relation to the APSE

Ada and the Ada Programming Support Environment (APSE) specifically address the phases of the system/software life cycle which follow after the user's problem was translated into system and software development specifications. The waterfall model of the life cycle identifies the analysis and requirements definition phases as preceeding program design and coding. Since Ada is a programming language and the APSE is a programming support environment, they are primarily targeted to support program (code) development, tecting, and maintenance. The use of Ada based or Ada related specification languages (SLs) and program design languages (PDLs) can extend the use of Ada back into the software design phases of the life cycle. Recall that the standardization of the APSE as a programming support environment is only now happening after many years of evolutionary experience with diverse sets of programming support tools. Restricting consideration to one, or even a few chosen specification and design tools, could be a real mistake for an organization or a major project such as the Space Station, which will need to deal with an increasingly complex level of system problems. To require that everything be Ada-like, be implemented in Ada, run directly under the APSE, and fit into a rigid waterfall model of the life cycle would turn a promising support environment into a straight jacket for progress.

Hendricks, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Considerations for the Use of Remote Gaze Tracking to Assess Behavior in Flight Simulators

Complex user interfaces (such as those found in an aircraft cockpit) may be designed from first principles, but inevitably must be evaluated with real users. User gaze data can provide valuable information that can help to interpret other actions that change the state of the system. However, care must be taken to ensure that any conclusions drawn from gaze data are well supported. Through a combination of empirical and simulated data, we identify several considerations and potential pitfalls when measuring gaze behavior in high-fidelity simulators. We show that physical layout, behavioral differences, and noise levels can all substantially alter the quality of fit for algorithms that segment gaze measurements into individual fixations. We provide guidelines to help investigators ensure that conclusions drawn from gaze tracking data are not artifactual consequences of data quality or analysis techniques.

eye tracking↗
DOE OSTI2023

ProvLight: Efficient Workflow Provenance Capture on the Edge-to-Cloud Continuum

Modern scientific workflows require hybrid infrastructures combining numerous decentralized resources on the IoT/Edge interconnected to Cloud/HPC systems (aka the Computing Continuum) to enable their optimized execution. Understanding and optimizing the performance of such complex Edge-to-Cloud workflows is challenging. Capturing the provenance of key performance indicators, with their related data and processes, may assist in understanding and optimizing workflow executions. However, the capture overhead can be prohibitive, particularly in resource-constrained devices, such as the ones on the IoT/Edge.To address this challenge, based on a performance analysis of existing systems, we propose ProvLight, a tool to enable efficient provenance capture on the IoT/Edge. We leverage simplified data models, data compression and grouping, and lightweight transmission protocols to reduce overheads. We further integrate ProvLight into the E2Clab framework to enable workflow provenance capture across the Edge-to-Cloud Continuum. This integration makes E2Clab a promising platform for the performance optimization of applications through reproducible experiments.We validate ProvLight at a large scale with synthetic workloads on 64 real-life IoT/Edge devices in the FIT IoT LAB testbed. Evaluations show that ProvLight outperforms state-of-the-art systems like ProvLake and DfAnalyzer in resource-constrained devices. ProvLight is 26—37x faster to capture and transmit provenance data; uses 5—7x less CPU; 2x less memory; transmits 2x less data; and consumes 2—2.5x less energy. ProvLight [1] and E2Clab [2] are available as open-source tools.

Rosendo, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS1990

Knowledge base rule partitioning design for CLIPS

This describes a knowledge base (KB) partitioning approach to solve the problem of real-time performance using the CLIPS AI shell when containing large numbers of rules and facts. This work is funded under the joint USAF/NASA Advanced Launch System (ALS) Program as applied research in expert systems to perform vehicle checkout for real-time controller and diagnostic monitoring tasks. The Expert System advanced development project (ADP-2302) main objective is to provide robust systems responding to new data frames of 0.1 to 1.0 second intervals. The intelligent system control must be performed within the specified real-time window, in order to meet the demands of the given application. Partitioning the KB reduces the complexity of the inferencing Rete net at any given time. This reduced complexity improves performance but without undo impacts during load and unload cycles. The second objective is to produce highly reliable intelligent systems. This requires simple and automated approaches to the KB verification & validation task. Partitioning the KB reduces rule interaction complexity overall. Reduced interaction simplifies the V&V testing necessary by focusing attention only on individual areas of interest. Many systems require a robustness that involves a large number of rules, most of which are mutually exclusive under different phases or conditions. The ideal solution is to control the knowledge base by loading rules that directly apply for that condition, while stripping out all rules and facts that are not used during that cycle. The practical approach is to cluster rules and facts into associated 'blocks'. A simple approach has been designed to control the addition and deletion of 'blocks' of rules and facts, while allowing real-time operations to run freely. Timing tests for real-time performance for specific machines under R/T operating systems have not been completed but are planned as part of the analysis process to validate the design.

Mainardi, Joseph D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dimensionality Reduction Through Classifier Ensembles

In data mining, one often needs to analyze datasets with a very large number of attributes. Performing machine learning directly on such data sets is often impractical because of extensive run times, excessive complexity of the fitted model (often leading to overfitting), and the well-known "curse of dimensionality." In practice, to avoid such problems, feature selection and/or extraction are often used to reduce data dimensionality prior to the learning step. However, existing feature selection/extraction algorithms either evaluate features by their effectiveness across the entire data set or simply disregard class information altogether (e.g., principal component analysis). Furthermore, feature extraction algorithms such as principal components analysis create new features that are often meaningless to human users. In this article, we present input decimation, a method that provides "feature subsets" that are selected for their ability to discriminate among the classes. These features are subsequently used in ensembles of classifiers, yielding results superior to single classifiers, ensembles that use the full set of features, and ensembles based on principal component analysis on both real and synthetic datasets.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗