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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

The age of the LMC globular cluster NGC 1783

The age of the LMC red globular cluster NGC 1783 is estimated as 0.9 + or - 0.4 billion yr by photometry of the main-sequence turnoff. The accuracy of the estimate is limited chiefly by the uncertainty in the distance modulus of the cluster. At (m - M)0 = 18.2 the cluster is aged 1.1 + or - 0.2 Gyr; at (m - M)0 = 18.7 it is 0.7 + or - 0.2 Gyr. NGC 1783 is a sufficiently rich cluster that one can see the full development of red giants on the asymptotic giant branch from the M type, through S, to carbon-rich atmospheres.

Mould, Jeremy↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Kepler-454 system: A small, not-rocky inner planet, a Jovian World, and a distant companion

Kepler-454 (KOI-273) is a relatively bright (V = 11.69 mag), Sun-like star that hosts a transiting planet candidate in a 10.6 day orbit. From spectroscopy, we estimate the stellar temperature to be 5687 ± 50 K, its metallicity to be [m/H] = 0.32 ± 0.08, and the projected rotational velocity to be v sin i < 2.4 km s{sup −1}. We combine these values with a study of the asteroseismic frequencies from short cadence Kepler data to estimate the stellar mass to be 1.028{sub −0.03}{sup +0.04}M{sub ⊙}, the radius to be 1.066 ± 0.012 R{sub ⊙}, and the age to be 5.25{sub −1.39}{sup +1.41} Gyr. We estimate the radius of the 10.6 day planet as 2.37 ± 0.13 R{sub ⊕}. Using 63 radial velocity observations obtained with the HARPS-N spectrograph on the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo and 36 observations made with the HIRES spectrograph at the Keck Observatory, we measure the mass of this planet to be 6.8 ± 1.4 M{sub ⊕}. We also detect two additional non-transiting companions, a planet with a minimum mass of 4.46 ± 0.12 M{sub J} in a nearly circular 524 day orbit and a massive companion with a period >10 years and mass >12.1 M{sub J}. The 12 exoplanets with radii <2.7 R{sub ⊕} and precise mass measurements appear to fall into two populations, with those <1.6 R{sub ⊕} following an Earth-like composition curve and larger planets requiring a significant fraction of volatiles. With a density of 2.76 ± 0.73 g cm{sup −3}, Kepler-454b lies near the mass transition between these two populations and requires the presence of volatiles and/or H/He gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two trillion gallons: Fuel savings from fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles, 1975–2018

Since 1975, the fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. has almost doubled. Fuel economy improvements on laboratory tests gradually became real improvements on the road as newer, more efficient vehicles replaced older less efficient ones. Fleet-wide fuel economy gains produced large fuel savings. In this paper, we show that fuel economy gains measured on laboratory test cycles, adjusted for on-road conditions and weighted by the distribution of vehicles by age and their relative use, closely match estimates by the Federal Highway Administration based primarily on traffic counts and motor fuel tax records. Furthermore, adjusting for the rebound effect of fuel economy on vehicle miles traveled, we estimate the fuel savings, CO 2 emissions reductions and dollars saved on fuel due to fuel economy improvements over the past 43 years. Through the end of 2018, estimated cumulative fuel savings amount to approximately 2 trillion gallons of gasoline. We estimate that roughly one-fifth of the savings can be attributed to gasoline price increases over the period and four-fifths to fuel economy and greenhouse gas (ghg) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Root-driven weathering impacts on mineral-organic associations in deep soils over pedogenic time scales

Plant roots are primary weathering agents in deep soils, yet the impact of resulting mineral transformations on the vast deep soil carbon (C) reservoir are largely unknown. Root-driven weathering of primary minerals causes the formation of reactive secondary minerals, which may protect mineral-organic associations (MOAs) for centuries or millennia. Conversely, root-driven weathering may also transform secondary minerals, potentially enhancing the bioavailability of C previously protected in MOAs. Here we examined the impact of root-driven weathering on MOAs and their capacity to store C over pedogenic time scales. To accomplish this, we compared soil that experienced root-driven weathering, resulting in the formation of discrete rhizosphere zones in deep soil horizons (100-160 cm) of the Santa Cruz Marine Terrace chronosequence (65ka-226ka), with adjacent soil that experienced no root growth. Using a combination of radiocarbon, mass spectrometry, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and X-ray spectromicroscopy approaches, we characterized transformations of mineral-organic associations in relation to changes in C content, turnover and chemistry across four soils ranging in age from 65 to 226 ka. We found that the onset of root-driven weathering (65-90ka) increased the amount of C associated with poorly crystalline iron (Fe) and aluminum (Al) phases, particularly highly-disordered np-goethite. This increase coincided with greater C concentrations, longer C residence times, and a greater abundance of microbially-derived C. Continued root-driven weathering (137-226ka) did not significantly change the amount of C associated with crystalline Fe and Al phases, but resulted in a decline in the amount of C associated with poorly crystalline metal phases. This decline coincided with a decrease in C concentrations and potential turnover rates, and a shift toward plant-derived C. In contrast, soil not affected by root-driven weathering showed comparatively low amounts of C bound in poorly crystalline Fe and Al phases regardless of soil age and, correspondingly, lower C concentrations and estimated residence times. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that root driven-formation and disruption of poorly crystalline Fe and Al phases is a direct control on both C accrual and loss in deep soil. This finding suggests that root impacts on soil C storage are dependent on soil weathering stage, a consideration that is critical for future predictions of the vulnerability of deep soil C to global change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Genome evolution in the allotetraploid frog Xenopus laevis

To explore the origins and consequences of tetraploidy in the African clawed frog, we sequenced the Xenopus laevis genome and compared it to the related diploid X. tropicalis genome. We characterize the allotetraploid origin of X. laevis by partitioning its genome into two homoeologous subgenomes, marked by distinct families of 'fossil' transposable elements. On the basis of the activity of these elements and the age of hundreds of unitary pseudogenes, we estimate that the two diploid progenitor species diverged around 34 million years ago (Ma) and combined to form an allotetraploid around 17-18 Ma. More than 56% of all genes were retained in two homoeologous copies. Protein function, gene expression, and the amount of conserved flanking sequence all correlate with retention rates. The subgenomes have evolved asymmetrically, with one chromosome set more often preserving the ancestral state and the other experiencing more gene loss, deletion, rearrangement, and reduced gene expression.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

RX J0848.6+4453: The evolution of galaxy sizes and stellar populations in A z = 1.27 cluster

RX J0848.6+4453 (Lynx W) at redshift 1.27 is part of the Lynx Supercluster of galaxies. We present an analysis of the stellar populations and star formation history for a sample of 24 members of the cluster. Our study is based on deep optical spectroscopy obtained with Gemini North combined with imaging data from Hubble Space Telescope. Focusing on the 13 bulge-dominated galaxies for which we can determine central velocity dispersions, we find that these show a smaller evolution with redshift of sizes and velocity dispersions than reported for field galaxies and galaxies in poorer clusters. Our data show that the galaxies in RX J0848.6+4453 populate the fundamental plane (FP) similar to that found for lower-redshift clusters. The zero-point offset for the FP is smaller than expected if the cluster's galaxies are to evolve passively through the location of the FP we established in our previous work for z = 0.8-0.9 cluster galaxies and then to the present-day FP. The FP zero point for RX J0848.6+4453 corresponds to an epoch of last star formation at z{sub form}=1.95{sub −0.15}{sup +0.22}. Further, we find that the spectra of the galaxies in RX J0848.6+4453 are dominated by young stellar populations at all galaxy masses and in many cases show emission indicating low-level ongoing star formation. The average age of the young stellar populations as estimated from the strength of the high-order Balmer line Hζ is consistent with a major star formation episode 1-2 Gyr prior, which in turn agrees with z {sub form} = 1.95. These galaxies dominated by young stellar populations are distributed throughout the cluster. We speculate that low-level star formation has not yet been fully quenched in the center of this cluster, possibly because the cluster is significantly poorer than other clusters previously studied at similar redshifts, which appear to have very little ongoing star formation in their centers. The mixture in RX J0848.6+4453 of passive galaxies with young stellar populations and massive galaxies still experiencing some star formation appears similar to the galaxy populations recently identified in two z ≈ 2 clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Framework for Characterizing the Performance of High-Early Strength, High-Volume Fly Ash (HVFA) Concrete Structures

This presentation will highlight the development of a comprehensive framework to characterize the performance of high-volume fly ash (HVFA) concretes at early ages and discuss the resulting implications for concrete structures built using such materials. Achieving high-early compressive and/or flexural strength is often of particular importance for precast and/or prestressed concrete components – due to early age loading demands resulting from lifting, handling, or application of initial prestress – or other types of concrete structures that can significantly benefit from rapid strength development - such as for bridge deck repairs. The framework first includes a methodology for optimizing the strength of HVFA cementitious binders before subsequently scaling up the technology to evaluation of fresh and hardened HVFA concrete performance. A series of trial mix designs will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework to achieve not only the desired high-early strength targets but also satisfactory workability, often in the form of self-consolidating concrete. Mechanical performance was evaluated at several age-dependent milestones and, in conjunction with estimating concrete strength using the maturity method, was ultimately used to facilitate the development of novel strength development history curves. By way of these datasets, concrete mechanical properties were utilized in the design of prototype structural components, such as beams and wall panels, for subjection to larger-scale experimental testing. Implications for other pertinent HVFA concrete performance attributes, such as shrinkage or creep, will also be discussed. The framework also includes a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the environmental life-cycle performance of HVFA concrete structures focused on mitigating any unwarranted environmental consequences resulting from beneficial HVFA reuse in concrete. Strategies for more widespread implementation of HVFA concrete materials into construction practice will also be presented. Lastly, the role of the HVFA concrete framework towards the development of new provisions for building codes and/or design standards, and recommendations for future research needs will also be discussed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Argon-isotopic Age Dating Analyses for Eastern Snake River Plain Volcanic Rock Samples

Argon-isotopic age dating analyses were conducted on 25 volcanic rock samples obtained from 22 boreholes and collected at three surface locations in the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP). The analyses were conducted to reduce uncertainties for characterizing volcanic hazards at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as part of the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA). Results of the argon-isotopic age dating analyses will be used to estimate the recurrence of basaltic and silicic volcanism and for assessing the spatial and temporal distributions of volcanic events in the ESRP.

58 - GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optical Linear Polarization toward the Open Star Cluster Casado Alessi 1

We present B-, V-, R-, and I-band linear polarimetric observations of 73 stars in the direction of open star cluster Casado Alessi 1 (hereafter Alessi 1). We aim to use polarimetry as a tool to investigate the properties and distribution of dust grains toward the direction of the cluster. The polarimetric observations were carried out using the ARIES IMaging POLarimeter mounted at the 104 cm telescope of ARIES, Nainital (India). Using the Gaia photometric data the age and distance of the cluster are estimated to be 0.8 ± 0.1 Gyr and 673 ± 98 pc, respectively. A total of 66 stars with a 26′ radius from the cluster are identified as members of the cluster using the astrometric approach. Out of these 66 members, 15 stars were observed polarimetrically and found to have the same value of polarization. The majority of the stars in the region follow the general law of polarization for the interstellar medium, indicating that polarization toward the cluster Alessi 1 is dominated by foreground dust grains. The average values of the maximum polarization (P {sub max}) and the wavelength corresponding to the maximum polarization (λ {sub max}) toward the cluster are found to be 0.83 ± 0.03% and 0.59 ± 0.04 μm, respectively. Also, dust grains toward the cluster appear to be aligned, possibly due to the galactic magnetic field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

The development of air shower in the iron absorber

The iron open-sandwich experiments to observe one dimensional development of individual air showers were carried out at Akeno Observatory. One dimensional energy flow, incident energy and production height of shower is estimated using the data of size and age obtained from the above experiment and simple calculation.

Hazama, M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Effect of a shallow low-viscosity zone on the formation of midplate swells

A finite-element numerical method is used here to analyze the effect of a low-viscosity zone on convection driven by heating from below in the upper mantle, in particular on the formation of midplate swells. The convective temperature and velocity solutions are calculated for different combinations of the viscosity in the top layer, the fluid layer thicknesses, and the Rayleigh number based on the viscosity in the bottom layer. The temperature solutions are used to calculate the geoid, topography, and heat flow anomalies, the elastic plate thickness, the depth of compensation, and an upper bound on the uplift time that result from the flow. The results are compared to data at the Hawaii, Bermuda, Cape Verde, and Marquesas swells. The magnitudes and the trend with age are consistent with theoretical and other estimates of the viscosity variation in the shallow upper mantle. Convective models can therefore explain the uplift and observed anomalies at midplate swells.

Robinson, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Overpressured cocoons in extragalactic radio sources

It is shown that the cocoons of shocked gas which surround powerful double radio sources can have significantly higher pressures than the surrounding intergalactic medium. The pressures can be high enough to confine the jets in these sources, obviating the need for magnetic confinement. The cocoon pressure and the age of a radio source may be estimated from observable quantities, as demonstrated here for the radio galaxy Cygnus A. It is suggested that overpressured cocoons in high-redshift radio galaxies engulf and compress circumgalactic clouds, driving them over the Jeans limit and triggering star formation. It is proposed that this process leads to the observed alignments of optical continuum emission with radio source axes.

Begelman, Mitchell C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

High Resolution Three-Color Imaging of Spirals With Nuclear Star-Forming Rings

Nuclear rings in barred spirals offer an opportunity to study starburst properties in order to develop an understanding of the evolution of star formation in galaxies. To achieve this understanding, a large scale imaging survey in the H alpha line and in the B and I broad bands has been performed. Analysis of all galaxies that reveal nuclear rings in the H alpha line will be compared to numerical models so that the relative ages between the starforming clumps can be estimated. The luminosity function of the starforming regions will be related to the measured properties of the associated star-cluster and the required ionizing flux. Also B - I color index images will be performed to indicate the location of the dust lanes.

Mazzuca, Lisa↗
NASA NTRS2003

UV Spectral Templates for High-Redshift Galaxies

New instrumentation such as DEIMOS on Keck-II now enable deep spectral surveys, and thereby samples of galaxies at younger ages. At a redshift, z = 1, all galaxies are less than 6 Gyr old and hence, have not yet formed horizontal-branch stars. Also, at z = 1, the restframe-UV comes into view, and with it, a new set of spectral diagnostics. UV spectral features are especially important because most of the UV flux comes from stars at the main-sequence turnoff (MSTO). Hence, UV spectral diagnostics enable the ages of z = 1 galaxies to be estimated directly from MSTO stars. In preparation for these high-redshift spectral surveys, we are developing UV spectral templates for stellar populations younger than 6 Gyr using UV-optical spectra of stars observed by HST/STIS. We are also planning to supplement these observations with theoretical spectral grids of stars of various metallicities. In this paper, we present a progress report on the observation-based spectral templates and spectral diagnostics.

Heap, Sara↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFC's to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

Model-derived estimates of the annually integrated destruction and lifetime for various ozone depleting substances (ODSs) depend on the simulated stratospheric transport and mixing in the global model used to produce the estimate. Observations in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere show that the mean age of an air parcel (i.e., the time since its stratospheric entry) is related to the fractional release for the ODs (i.e., the amount of the ODS that has been destroyed relative to the amount at the time of stratospheric entry). We use back trajectory calculations to produce an age spectrum, and explain the relationship between the mean age and the fractional release by showing that older elements in the age spectrum have experienced higher altitudes and greater ODs destruction than younger elements. In our study, models with faster circulations produce distributions for the age-of-air that are 'young' compared to a distribution derived from observations. These models also fail to reproduce the observed relationship between the mean age of air and the fractional release. Models with slower circulations produce both realistic distributions for mean age and a realistic relationship between mean age and fractional release. These models also produce a CFCl3 lifetime of approximately 56 years, longer than the 45 year lifetime used to project future mixing ratios. We find that the use of flux boundary conditions in assessment models would have several advantages, including consistency between ODS evolution and simulated loss even if the simulated residual circulation changes due to climate change.

Douglas, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Geology of the Lachesis Tessera Quadrangle (V-18), Venus

The Lachesis Tessera Quadrangle (V-18) lies between 25deg and 50deg north, 300deg and 330deg east. Most of the quadrangle consists of "regional plains" (1) of Sedna and Guinevere Planitiae. A first draft of the geology has been completed, and the tentative number of mapped units by terrain type is: Tesserae - 2; plains - 4; ridge belts - 1; fracture belts - 1 (plus embayed fragments of possible additional belts); coronae - 3; central volcanoes - 1; shield flows - 2; paterae - 1; impact craters - 1; undifferentiated flows - 1; bright materials - 1. By far the areally most extensive materials are regional plains. These are mapped as two units, based on radar backscatter ("radar brightness"). The brighter unit appears to be younger than the darker unit. This inference is based on the common presence within the lighter unit of circular or nearly circular inliers of material with radar backscatter characteristic of the darker unit. The circular inliers are most likely low shield volcanoes, which are commonly present on the darker unit, that were only partially covered by the brighter unit. Clear cut examples of wrinkle ridges and fractures superposed on the darker unit but truncated by the brighter unit have not been found to date. These relationships indicate that the brighter unit is superposed on the darker unit, but that the difference in age between them is very small. Because they are so widespread, the regional plains are a convenient relative age time "marker." The number of impact craters superposed on these plains is too small to measure age differences (2), and thus we cannot estimate how much time elapsed between the emplacement of the darker and brighter regional plains units. More local plains units are defined by significantly lower radar backscatter or by a texture that is mottled at scores to hundreds of kilometers scale. A plains-like unit with a homogenous, bright diffuse backscatter is present as scattered exposures in the eastern part of the quadrangle. These exposures have been mapped as "bright material," but it is not clear at present if this is a valid unit or if it is part of the brighter regional plains unit. Tessera terrain is primarily found along the western border of the quadrangle, where Lachesis Tessera refers to the southern exposures, and Zirka Tessera refers to northern exposures. A second tessera unit has been mapped with the symbol "t?." This unit appears to be deformed by the requisite 2 sets of closely spaced structures, but it is so extensively flooded by regional plains materials that the structural fabric is partially obscured. Tessera terrain is present in the adjacent V-17 quadrangle, where both Lachesis Tessera and Zirka Tessera are areally more extensive than in V-18. Ridge and fracture belts are both present, but not as extensive as is the case in, for example, the Pandrosos Dorsa (3) and Lavinia Planitia (4) quadrangles. As is commonly the case, it is difficult to determine if the materials of these belts are older or younger than regional plains. A recent study using radar properties (5) demonstrated that at least most ridge belts appear to be older than regional plains. The materials of fracture belts probably are also older than regional plains, but the fractures themselves can be both older and younger than regional plains (e.g., 3).

McGill, George E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Geology of the Marcia Quadrangle of Asteroid 4Vesta: An Integrated Mapping Study Using Dawn Spacecraft Data

We used geologic mapping applied to Dawn data as a tool to understand the geologic history of the Marcia quadrangle of Vesta. This region hosts a set of relatively fresh craters and surrounding ejecta field, an unusual dark hill named Arisia Tholus, and a orange (false color) diffuse material surrounding the crater Octavia. Stratigraphically, from oldest to youngest, three increasingly larger impact craters named Minucia, Calpurnia, and Marcia make up a snowmanlike feature, which is surrounded by a zone of dark material interpreted to consist of impact ejecta and possibly impact melts. The floor of Marcia contains a pitted terrain thought to be related to release of volatiles (1). The dark ejecta field has an enhanced signature of H, possibly derived from carbonaceous chondritic material that accumulated in Vesta s crust (2,3). The dark ejecta has a spectrally distinctive behavior with shallow pyroxenes band depths. Outside the ejecta field this quadrangle contains various cratered terrains, with increasing crater abundance moving south to north away from the Rheasilvia basin. Arisia Tholus, originally suggested as an ancient volcano, appears to be an impact-sculpted basin rim fragment with a superposed darkrayed impact crater. There remains no unequivocal evidence of volcanic features on Vesta s surface, likely because basaltic material of the HED meteorite suite demonstrates magmatism ended very early on Vesta (4). Ongoing work includes application of crater statistical techniques to obtain model ages of surface units, and more detailed estimates of the compositional variations among the surface units.

Williams, David A.↗