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At least 631 records · Page 35

Machine learning in nuclear materials research

Nuclear materials are often demanded to function for extended time in extreme environments, including high radiation fluxes with associated transmutations, high temperature and temperature gradients, mechanical stresses, and corrosive coolants. They also have a wide range of microstructural and chemical makeups, resulting in multifaceted and often out-of-equilibrium interactions. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being used to tackle these complex time-dependent interactions and aid researchers in developing models and making predictions, sometimes with better accuracy than traditional modeling that focuses on one or two parameters at a time. Conventional practices of acquiring new experimental data in nuclear materials research are often slow and expensive, limiting the opportunity for data-centric ML, but new methods are changing that paradigm. Here we review high-throughput computational and experimental data approaches, especially robotic experimentation and active learning that is based on Gaussian process and Bayesian optimization. We show ML examples in structural materials (e.g., reactor pressure vessel (RPV) alloys and radiation detecting scintillating materials) and highlight new techniques of high-throughput sample preparation and characterizations, and automated radiation/environmental exposures and real-time online diagnostics. Herein, this review suggests that ML models of material constitutive relations in plasticity, damage, and even electronic and optical responses to radiation are likely to become powerful tools as they develop. Finally, we speculate on how the recent trends of using natural language processing (NLP) to aid the collection and analysis of literature data, interpretable artificial intelligence (AI), and the use of streamlined scripting, database, workflow management, and cloud computing platforms that will soon make the utilization of ML techniques as commonplace as the spreadsheet curve-fitting practices of today.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA Satellites and Data Fusion: A Case Study with Coral Reefs

As the world is experiencing a significant rise in both AI, Climate, and Space start-up companies, we are in a new wave of limitless innovation. NASA's statutory responsibility is to "provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination of information concerning its activities and the results thereof." (51 U.S.C. § 20112) In particular, through machine learning, the public data drawn from NASA’s space assets can provide insights for addressing climate-related problems here on Earth. And many climate start-up companies can benefit from leveraging this data, either for proof of concepts or their own missions. In the Fall of 2021, several scientists from NASA and Coral Vita led a Practicum with the Georgia Institute of Technology Masters in Data Analytics program. The Practicum saw two teams of students develop and implement machine learning models to infer, from CALIPSO satellite imagery, vitality properties upon satellite pass. This kind of capability can lead to real-time mapping of coral health around the world, giving organization an understanding of where to prioritize reef reconstitution.. In this presentation, we will highlight this use case and discuss other concrete applications in which space data is used to solve problems here on Earth.

Earth Sciences↗

Machine-Learning-Based Mapping and Modeling of Solar Energy with Ultra-High Spatiotemporal Granularity

Despite the rapid growth of solar energy, we still lack a dynamic, high-fidelity database that tracks the spatiotemporal variations of solar PVs and their associated infrastructures across different places at a spatially resolved scale. The absence of such data presents a barrier to various applications such as solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar incentive design, and climate risk assessment. In this project, we aim to bridge this gap by developing AI-based algorithms to extract granular information about solar PV installations and their associated infrastructures (i.e., distribution grids) from widely available unstructured data like remote sensing images and street views. As a result, we have built the Solar Energy Atlas, a fine-grained, large-scale geospatial overlay of distributed solar PVs and distribution grids. On top of it, we have advanced the understanding of solar adoption and distribution grid vulnerability to climate-induced extremes. Our major contributions can be summarized as follow: (1) By developing new AI algorithms, we have built the most comprehensive solar PV spatiotemporal database covering the entire US. This is the first time we obtained the exact GPS locations, size, subtype, and installation year information for rooftop solar PVs across the US. This database can be used for solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar energy policy analysis and design, and spatially-resolved climate risk assessment. (2) Leveraging this database, we have uncovered the socioeconomic driving factors that are correlated with earlier onset of solar adoption and higher saturated adoption levels. We have identified the heterogeneity in the effects of different types of financial incentives on solar adoption and provided implications for tailoring incentive design based on local income levels to promote equitable solar adoption. (3) We have developed a distribution grid GIS mapping algorithm which can obtain granular geospatial and topology information about distribution grids using multi-modal open data, reducing the dependency on hard-to-obtain smart meter data of conventional approaches. It shows effectiveness in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this algorithm, we have uncovered the non-uniform vulnerability of distribution grids to wildfires in California in the aspects of undergrounding protection and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) preparedness. This has provided important implications for improving the affordability and equity of grid adaptation approaches. (3) We have made our produced database publicly available and provided user-friendly interface to enable various stakeholders and the general public to interact with the data. We have also integrated the produced data into the Data Commons platform to enable the public to access the data and correlate it with other location-specific characteristics simply using natural language as queries. The impact of our project is three-fold: (1) New algorithms for mapping solar PVs and distribution grids across space and time, which are open source to facilitate researchers and industry; (2) New databases of solar PVs and distribution grids that have been made publicly available for engineering, social, and policy applications; (3) New understandings and actionable insights on the potential approaches to promoting solar adoption and reducing energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. In this report, we start by discussing the project background and motivation (section 5), followed by the overview of project objectives (section 6). Results and discussion for each task are presented in section 7. Significant accomplishments are summarized in section 8. This report will be concluded by discussing the paths forwards (section 9), products (section 10), and team roles (section 11).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

New Era Towards Autonomous Additive Manufacturing: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Perspectives

Abstract The Additive Manufacturing (AM) landscape has significantly transformed in alignment with Industry 4.0 principles, primarily driven by the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Digital Twin (DT). However, current Intelligent Additive Manufacturing (IAM) systems face limitations such as fragmented AI tool usage and suboptimal human-machine interaction (HMI). This paper reviews existing IAM solutions, emphasizing control, monitoring, process autonomy, and end-to-end integration, and identifies key limitations, such as the absence of a high-level controller for global decision-making. To address these gaps, we propose a transition from IAM to Autonomous Additive Manufacturing (AAM), featuring a hierarchical framework with four integrated layers: knowledge, generative solution, operational, and cognitive. In the cognitive layer, AI agents notably enable machines to independently observe, analyze, plan, and execute operations that traditionally require human intervention. These capabilities streamline production processes and expand the possibilities for innovation, particularly in sectors like in-space manufacturing (ISM). Additionally, this paper discusses the role of AI in self-optimization and lifelong learning, positing that the future of AM will be characterized by a symbiotic relationship between human expertise and advanced autonomy, fostering a more adaptive, resilient manufacturing ecosystem.

Fan, Haolin↗

Application of convolutional neural networks for stellar spectral classification

ABSTRACT Due to the ever-expanding volume of observed spectroscopic data from surveys such as SDSS and LAMOST, it has become important to apply artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for analysing stellar spectra to solve spectral classification and regression problems like the determination of stellar atmospheric parameters Teff, $\rm {\log g}$, and [Fe/H]. We propose an automated approach for the classification of stellar spectra in the optical region using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Traditional machine learning (ML) methods with ‘shallow’ architecture (usually up to two hidden layers) have been trained for these purposes in the past. However, deep learning methods with a larger number of hidden layers allow the use of finer details in the spectrum which results in improved accuracy and better generalization. Studying finer spectral signatures also enables us to determine accurate differential stellar parameters and find rare objects. We examine various machine and deep learning algorithms like artificial neural networks, Random Forest, and CNN to classify stellar spectra using the Jacoby Atlas, ELODIE, and MILES spectral libraries as training samples. We test the performance of the trained networks on the Indo-U.S. Library of Coudé Feed Stellar Spectra (CFLIB). We show that using CNNs, we are able to lower the error up to 1.23 spectral subclasses as compared to that of two subclasses achieved in the past studies with ML approach. We further apply the trained model to classify stellar spectra retrieved from the SDSS data base with SNR > 20.

Sharma, Kaushal↗

A Smart Vision-Aided RICH (Robotic Interface Control and Handling) System for VULCAN

High-flux neutron beams and high-efficiency detectors enable rapid neutron diffraction measurements at the Engineering Materials Diffractometer (VULCAN) at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). To optimize beam time utilization, efficient sample exchange, alignment, and automated measurements are essential. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have expanded the capabilities of robotic systems. Here, we report the development of a Robotic Interactive Control and Handling (RICH) system for sample handling at VULCAN, designed to support high-throughput experiments and reduce overhead time. The RICH system employs a six-axis desktop robot integrated with AI-based computer vision models capable of recognizing and localizing samples in real time from instrument and depth-resolving cameras. Vision algorithms combine these detections to align samples with designated measurement positions or place them within complex sample environments such as furnaces. This integration of machine learning-assisted vision with robotic handling demonstrates the feasibility of autonomous sample detection and preparation, offering a pathway toward fully unmanned neutron scattering experiments.

automation↗

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Towards developing multiscale-multiphysics models and their surrogates for digital twins of metal additive manufacturing

Artificial intelligence (AI) embedded within digital models of manufacturing processes can be used to improve process productivity and product quality significantly. The application of such advanced capabilities particularly to highly digitalized processes such as metal additive manufacturing (AM) is likely to make those processes commercially more attractive. AI capabilities will reside within Digital Twins (DTs) which are living virtual replicas of the physical processes. DTs will be empowered to operate autonomously in a diagnostic control capacity to supervise processes and can be interrogated by the practitioner to inform the optimal processing route for any given product. The utility of the information gained from the DTs would depend on the quality of the digital models and, more importantly, their faster-solving surrogates which dwell within DTs for consultation during rapid decision-making. In this article, we point out the exceptional value of DTs in AM and focus on the need to create high-fidelity multiscale-multiphysics models for AM processes to feed the AI capabilities. We identify technical hurdles for their development, including those arising from the multiscale and multiphysics characteristics of the models, the difficulties in linking models of the subprocesses across scales and physics, and the scarcity of experimental data. We discuss the need for creating surrogate models using machine learning approaches for real-time problem-solving. We further identify non-technical barriers, such as the need for standardization and difficulties in collaborating across different types of institutions. We offer potential solutions for all these challenges, after reflecting on and researching discussions held at an international symposium on the subject in 2019. Here, we argue that a collaborative approach can not only help accelerate their development compared with disparate efforts, but also enhance the quality of the models by allowing modular development and linkages that account for interactions between the various sub-processes in AM. A high-level roadmap is suggested for starting such a collaboration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Real-time Intrusion Detection for High-bandwidth Research Networks using Unsupervised Deep Learning

Nowadays, data generated by large-scale scientific experiments are on the scale of petabytes per month. These data are transferred through dedicated high-bandwidth networks across distributed collaboration sites for processing, storage, and analysis. Like general purpose networks, research networks experience attacks. However, monitoring traffic in such high-bandwidth network environments is challenging with conventional deep packet inspection (DPI)- based network intrusion detection systems (NIDS). Recently, machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown potential in detecting anomalous patterns with better generalizability and faster speed. Compared to the general purpose networks, traffic movement in research network is less volatile and more likely to benefit from the ML-based anomaly analysis. We present ThunderSecure, an efficient AI-powered system for detecting anomalies in 100G research networks. ThunderSecure implements a high-throughput packet processing infrastructure using multi-cores and GPUs. It takes time-series statistics from a variety of network measurements and uses 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to explore both spatial and temporal dependencies in network data stream. Patterns of science data traffic are learned with a one-class neural network, which blends an Adversarial Autoencoder (AAE) with Gaussian mixture density estimation. Testing traffic flows exhibiting significant deviations from the learned baseline of normality are marked as anomalies. We trained ThunderSecure on hundreds of billions of science data packets recorded from a 100G research network at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The detection performance was evaluated on traffic captured from the same research network days and weeks after the training with different types of attack flows injected. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ML work in the area of network anomaly detection that has been validated on such extreme scale datasets. Results show that ThunderSecure can recognize science data traffic that are captured long after the training and make nearly certain detection on those with anomalous flows injected, even in the case when the anomaly-to-normal mixing ratio is 0.1%.

Gong, Qian↗

AI-based design of a nuclear reactor core

The authors developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-based algorithm for the design and optimization of a nuclear reactor core based on a flexible geometry and demonstrated a 3× improvement in the selected performance metric: temperature peaking factor. The rapid development of advanced, and specifically, additive manufacturing (3-D printing) and its introduction into advanced nuclear core design through the Transformational Challenge Reactor program have presented the opportunity to explore the arbitrary geometry design of nuclear-heated structures. The primary challenge is that the arbitrary geometry design space is vast and requires the computational evaluation of many candidate designs, and the multiphysics simulation of nuclear systems is very time-intensive. Therefore, the authors developed a machine learning-based multiphysics emulator and evaluated thousands of candidate geometries on Summit, Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s leadership class supercomputer. The results presented in this work demonstrate temperature distribution smoothing in a nuclear reactor core through the manipulation of the geometry, which is traditionally achieved in light water reactors through variable assembly loading in the axial direction and fuel shuffling during refueling in the radial direction. The conclusions discuss the future implications for nuclear systems design with arbitrary geometry and the potential for AI-based autonomous design algorithms.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Residential HVAC Control with Consideration of Human Occupancy

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) development described herein uses model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to minimize energy cost during residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operation. Building cooling loads and HVAC operation are difficult to accurately model due to complexity, lack of measurements and data, and model specific performance, so online machine learning is used to allow for real-time readjustment in performance. Energy costs for the multi-zone cooling unit shown in this work are minimized by scheduling on/off commands around dynamic prices. By taking advantage of precooling events that take place when the price is low, the agent is able to reduce operational cost without violating user comfort. The DRL controller was tested in simulation where the learner achieved a 43.89% cost reduction when compared to traditional, fixed-setpoint operation. The system is now ready for the next phase of testing in a live, real-time home environment.

Mckee, Evan↗

Artificial Intelligence for Event Reconstruction and Higgs Physics at CMS and Future Colliders

This dissertation charts a trajectory in which advances in artificial intelligence (AI) play a central role in pushing the high-energy physics frontier, complementing progress driven by higher collision energies and larger colliders. The discovery potential of the LHC and future colliders relies on accurate reconstruction of increasingly complex particle collision events. In the CMS experiment, this task is performed by the particle-flow (PF) algorithm. This dissertation presents the first implementation of a machine-learning-based particle-flow (MLPF) reconstruction in the CMS detector based on transformer architectures. In simulated top quark--antiquark pair (ttbar) events under LHC Run~3 (2023--2024) conditions, MLPF improves jet energy resolution by 10--20\% compared to standard PF for jets with transverse momentum between 30--100\GeV. Runtime performance is evaluated using simulated multijet events, with a median inference time of 20\unit{ms} per event on an NVIDIA L4 GPU, compa red to approximately 110\unit{ms} for standard PF. The MLPF algorithm is also validated on Run~3 collision data, representing the first data-validated ML-based reconstruction pipeline at any LHC experiment. We then extend MLPF toward future electron--positron colliders and introduce the first full-simulation cross-detector transfer learning workflow for PF reconstruction. The model is pre-trained on simulated events from the Compact Linear Collider detector (CLICdet) and fine-tuned on the CLIC-like detector (CLD) proposed for the Future Circular Collider (FCC). This approach achieves up to a 40\% improvement in jet energy resolution over rule-based reconstruction while reducing the required training dataset size by an order of magnitude, demonstrating the potential of AI to accelerate detector development and optimization. This dissertation also demonstrates how modern AI techniques enhance the sensitivity of LHC physics analyses. A CMS search for highly Lorentz-boosted Higgs bosons decaying to \textrm{W} boson pairs is presented, focusing on the single-lepton final state. A dedicated fine-tuning strategy for \ParT yields an approximately 70\% increase in expected sensitivity relative to the baseline model. The analysis uses proton--proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of \ensuremath{\sqrt{s}=13\TeV} collected by CMS between 2016 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138\ensuremath{\ \mathrm{fb}^{-1}}. The expected significance of the search is $1.86\sigma$, with an observed signal strength of $-0.19^{+0.48}_{-0.46}$. Finally, explainable AI techniques are applied to the MLPF and \ParticleNet algorithms using layerwise relevance propagation, showing that both models base their predictions on physically meaningful features consistent with our physics intuition. Together, these results demonstrate how advanced AI methods can enhance reconstruction, analysis sensitivity, and interpretability, shaping the next era of experimental parti cle physics.

Mokhtar, Farouk [UC, San Diego]↗

Artificial Intelligence Research Branch future plans

This report contains information on the activities of the Artificial Intelligence Research Branch (FIA) at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) in 1992, as well as planned work in 1993. These activities span a range from basic scientific research through engineering development to fielded NASA applications, particularly those applications that are enabled by basic research carried out in FIA. Work is conducted in-house and through collaborative partners in academia and industry. All of our work has research themes with a dual commitment to technical excellence and applicability to NASA short, medium, and long-term problems. FIA acts as the Agency's lead organization for research aspects of artificial intelligence, working closely with a second research laboratory at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and AI applications groups throughout all NASA centers. This report is organized along three major research themes: (1) Planning and Scheduling: deciding on a sequence of actions to achieve a set of complex goals and determining when to execute those actions and how to allocate resources to carry them out; (2) Machine Learning: techniques for forming theories about natural and man-made phenomena; and for improving the problem-solving performance of computational systems over time; and (3) Research on the acquisition, representation, and utilization of knowledge in support of diagnosis design of engineered systems and analysis of actual systems.

Stewart, Helen↗

Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events

With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.

Matthews, Bryan L.↗

Antiviral discovery using sparse datasets by integrating experiments, molecular simulations, and machine learning

Computational methods have demonstrated success in identifying virucidal agents, effectively contributing to the discovery of novel virucidal molecules. In this study, we developed a machine learning (ML) model, trained on a small dataset, to predict inhibitors of human enterovirus 71 (EV71), a pathological agent that causes severe disease in children and immunocompromised adults. Despite the dataset’s limitation, comprising of only 36 compounds tested, our ML framework demonstrated significant predictive capability. Notably, experimental validation revealed that five out of the eight compounds predicted by our model from the Chinese cosmetic material list exhibited virucidal activity. The inhibitor effects displayed by the main active compounds were further confirmed by molecular dynamics simulation. This underscores the potential of our AI-driven approach to bypass data constraints in identifying active molecules against viral pathogens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Training calibration-based counterfactual explainers for deep learning models in medical image analysis

The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence methods in healthcare is coupled with the critical need for techniques to rigorously introspect models and thereby ensure that they behave reliably. This has led to the design of explainable AI techniques that uncover the relationships between discernible data signatures and model predictions. In this context, counterfactual explanations that synthesize small, interpretable changes to a given query while producing desired changes in model predictions have become popular. This under-constrained, inverse problem is vulnerable to introducing irrelevant feature manipulations, particularly when the model’s predictions are not well-calibrated. Hence, in this paper, we propose the TraCE (training calibration-based explainers) technique, which utilizes a novel uncertainty-based interval calibration strategy for reliably synthesizing counterfactuals. Given the wide-spread adoption of machine-learned solutions in radiology, our study focuses on deep models used for identifying anomalies in chest X-ray images. Using rigorous empirical studies, we demonstrate the superiority of TraCE explanations over several state-of-the-art baseline approaches, in terms of several widely adopted evaluation metrics. Our findings show that TraCE can be used to obtain a holistic understanding of deep models by enabling progressive exploration of decision boundaries, to detect shortcuts, and to infer relationships between patient attributes and disease severity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Earth System Model Improvement Pipeline via Uncertainty Attribution and Active Learning

Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗