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At least 631 records · Page 35

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis↗

Assessing the predictive impact of factor fixing with an adaptive uncertainty-based approach .

Despite widespread use of factor fixing in environmental modeling, its effect on model predictions has received little attention and is instead commonly presumed to be negligible. We propose a proof-of-concept adaptive method for systematically investigating the impact of factor fixing. The method uses Global Sensitivity Analysis methods to identify groups of sensitive parameters, then quantifies which groups can be safely fixed at nominal values without exceeding a maximum acceptable error, demonstrated using the 21-dimensional Sobol’ G-function. Furthermore, three error measures are considered for quantities of interest, namely Relative Mean Absolute Error, Pearson Product-Moment Correlation and Relative Variance. Results demonstrate that factor fixing may cause large errors in the model results unexpectedly, when preliminary analysis suggests otherwise, and that the default value selected affects the number of factors to fix. To improve the applicability and methodological development of factor fixing, a new research agenda encompassing five opportunities is discussed for further attention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Critical and Subcritical Californium Source Driven Noise Analysis Experiments with Fresh PWR Fuels Pins

These experiments were performed in 1983 between August 1 and September 16 and used 35 operational days of critical facility time at the Babcock & Wilcox critical facility in Lynchburg, Va. These measurements were to assess the capability of the Cf source driven noise analysis method to measure the subcriticality of light water reactor fresh fuel configurations. This report documents the experiments of 1983 that were not reported at that time. These measurement with 2.459 wt. % 235 U enriched uranium oxide fresh fuel pins started at the delayed critical configuration of the fully assembled pressurized water reactor (PWR) core configuration with 1511 parts per million (ppm) natural boron (19.8 wt. % 10 B) in the water. This was a cylindrical configuration of 4961 fuel pins. After the initial measurements at delayed criticality, subcritical measurements by the Cf source driven noise analysis method were performed in which the number of detectors and Cf source locations were varied. Additional boron was added to the water moderator and reflector to reduce the neutron multiplication factor, with resulting boron concentrations of 1561, 1613, 1765, 1880, 2104, 2384, 2975, 3606, and 4303 ppm. After the completion of these measurements the increased, the boron concentration was returned to that at delayed critical (1511 ppm) and the reactivity was decreased by reducing the number of fuel pins in steps to 3713, 2553, 1281, 749, and 333 fuel pins and then to that (289) of a s ingle square 17 x 17 pin array, corresponding to a single PW fuel element. For all measurement that started at delayed criticality and then reduced the neutron multiplication factor to various subcritical states, inverse kinetics rod drop measurements at the higher reactivities were also performed but not reported here. At all subcritical states the break frequency noise analysis data was fitted to obtain the prompt neutron decay constant. Some data presented in this report are from notes not in the logbook. The purpose of this report is to document the experimental information for the measurements performed so that a later date someone could perform the required uncertainty and calculational analyses and documentation to use these data for an International Nuclear Criticality Safety Benchmark Program (INCSBEP) or Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) benchmark. The data from these measurements is available from the Laboratory Records Department of Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the logbook is available from INCSBEP at Idaho National Laboratory.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluating the energy impact potential of energy efficiency measures for retrofit applications: A case study with U.S. medium office buildings

Quantifying the energy savings of various energy efficiency measures (EEMs) for an energy retrofit project often necessitates an energy audit and detailed whole building energy modeling to evaluate the EEMs; however, this is often cost-prohibitive for small and medium buildings. In order to provide a defined guideline for projects with assumed common baseline characteristics, this paper applies a sensitivity analysis method to evaluate the impact of individual EEMs and groups these into packages to produce deep energy savings for a sample prototype medium office building across 15 climate zones in the United States. We start with one baseline model for each climate zone and nine candidate EEMs with a range of efficiency levels for each EEM. Three energy performance indicators (EPIs) are defined, which are annual electricity use intensity, annual natural gas use intensity, and annual energy cost. Then, a Standard Regression Coefficient (SRC) sensitivity analysis method is applied to determine the sensitivity of each EEM with respect to the three EPIs, and the relative sensitivity of all EEMs are calculated to evaluate their energy impacts. For the selected range of efficiency levels, the results indicate that the EEMs with higher energy impacts (i.e., higher sensitivity) in most climate zones are high-performance windows, reduced interior lighting power, and reduced interior plug and process loads. However, the sensitivity of the EEMs also vary by climate zone and EPI; for example, improved opaque envelope insulation and efficiency of cooling and heating systems are found to have a high energy impact in cold and hot climates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Elastic buckling analysis for composite stiffened panels and other structures subjected to biaxial inplane loads

An exact linear analysis method is presented for predicting buckling of structures with arbitrary uniform cross section. The structure is idealized as an assemblage of laminated plate-strip elements, curved and planar, and beam elements. Element edges normal to the longitudinal axes are assumed to be simply supported. Arbitrary boundary conditions may be specified on any external longitudinal edge of plate-strip elements. The structure or selected elements may be loaded in any desired combination of inplane transverse compression or tension side load and axial compression load. The analysis simultaneously considers all possible modes of instability and is applicable for the buckling of laminated composite structures. Numerical results correlate well with the results of previous analysis methods.

Viswanathan, A. V.↗

Advanced Technology Composite Fuselage-Structural Performance

Boeing is studying the technologies associated with the application of composite materials to commercial transport fuselage structure under the NASA-sponsored contracts for Advanced Technology Composite Aircraft Structures (ATCAS) and Materials Development Omnibus Contract (MDOC). This report addresses the program activities related to structural performance of the selected concepts, including both the design development and subsequent detailed evaluation. Design criteria were developed to ensure compliance with regulatory requirements and typical company objectives. Accurate analysis methods were selected and/or developed where practical, and conservative approaches were used where significant approximations were necessary. Design sizing activities supported subsequent development by providing representative design configurations for structural evaluation and by identifying the critical performance issues. Significant program efforts were directed towards assessing structural performance predictive capability. The structural database collected to perform this assessment was intimately linked to the manufacturing scale-up activities to ensure inclusion of manufacturing-induced performance traits. Mechanical tests were conducted to support the development and critical evaluation of analysis methods addressing internal loads, stability, ultimate strength, attachment and splice strength, and damage tolerance. Unresolved aspects of these performance issues were identified as part of the assessments, providing direction for future development.

Walker, T. H.↗

Computational Aeroelasticity: Success, Progress, Challenge

The formal term Computational Aeroelasticity (CAE) has only been recently adopted to describe aeroelastic analysis methods coupling high-level computational fluid dynamics codes with structural dynamics techniques. However, the general field of aeroelastic computations has enjoyed a rich history of development and application since the first hand-calculations performed in the mid 1930 s. This paper portrays a much broader definition of Computational Aeroelasticity; one that encompasses all levels of aeroelastic computation from the simplest linear aerodynamic modeling to the highest levels of viscous unsteady aerodynamics, from the most basic linear beam structural models to state-of-the-art Finite Element Model (FEM) structural analysis. This paper is not written as a comprehensive history of CAE, but rather serves to review the development and application of aeroelastic analysis methods. It describes techniques and example applications that are viewed as relatively mature and accepted, the "successes" of CAE. Cases where CAE has been successfully applied to unique or emerging problems, but the resulting techniques have proven to be one-of-a-kind analyses or areas where the techniques have yet to evolve into a routinely applied methodology are covered as "progress" in CAE. Finally the true value of this paper is rooted in the description of problems where CAE falls short in its ability to provide relevant tools for industry, the so-called "challenges" to CAE.

Schuster, David M.↗

The Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S{sup 5}): Chemical Abundances of Seven Stellar Streams

We present high-resolution Magellan/MIKE spectroscopy of 42 red giant stars in seven stellar streams confirmed by the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S {sup 5}): ATLAS, Aliqa Uma, Chenab, Elqui, Indus, Jhelum, and Phoenix. Abundances of 30 elements have been derived from over 10,000 individual line measurements or upper limits using photometric stellar parameters and a standard LTE analysis. This is currently the most extensive set of element abundances for stars in stellar streams. Three streams (ATLAS, Aliqa Uma, and Phoenix) are disrupted metal-poor globular clusters, although only weak evidence is seen for the light-element anticorrelations commonly observed in globular clusters. Four streams (Chenab, Elqui, Indus, and Jhelum) are disrupted dwarf galaxies, and their stars display abundance signatures that suggest progenitors with stellar masses ranging from 10{sup 6} to 10{sup 7} M {sub ⊙}. Extensive description is provided for the analysis methods, including the derivation of a new method for including the effect of stellar parameter correlations on each star’s abundance and uncertainty. This paper includes data gathered with the 6.5 m Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds

This report documents work sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the RES project, “Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds.” This project was implemented as part of the Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program. The objective of the PFHA Research Program is to develop tools and guidance on the use of PFHA methods to risk-inform NRC’s licensing of new facilities as well as licensing and oversight of currently operating facilities as they relate to flooding hazards. Many nuclear power plants (NPPs) are located on or near rivers so riverine flooding hazards need to be considered in their design and operation. Probabilistic riverine flood models are important tools for realistic assessment of flooding risks. However, these models require areal estimates of the depth, duration, and frequency of rainfall distributed over the watershed, which are not often available. Point precipitation frequency estimates are more widely available. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published NOAA Atlas 14, which provides point precipitation frequency estimates for 5-minute through 60-day durations at average recurrence intervals of 1-year through 1,000-year. The research documented in this report addresses areal reduction factors (ARFs), which can be used to convert the widely available point precipitation frequency estimates, to estimates of areal precipitation frequency over a watershed. The most widely used ARF source is Technical Paper 29 (TP-29) published by the then U.S. Weather Bureau in 1958. However, both the methods and the underlying precipitation data used to produce TP-29 are seriously out of date. For example, due to the small gauge network available at the time of TP-29’s compilation, ARF estimates developed are only for watersheds smaller than about 400 square miles. Due to the relatively short record lengths of precipitation data available, frequency considerations could not be accurately determined. Other factors such as regional climate and seasonality were not addressed. Several newer methods have been published since TP-29 was developed and both the type and quantity of precipitation data have increased significantly, along with computational resources and analytical tools such as geographic information systems. This report reviewed and assessed the available precipitation products and methods for conducting ARF analysis. The work applied up-to-date precipitation data products and analysis methods with a novel watershed-based approach to investigate how ARF estimates vary across different methods, data sources, geographical locations, return periods, and seasons. The overall findings reported here regarding basic ARF trends are in line with other recent studies showing that ARFs decrease with increasing area, increase with increasing duration, and decrease with increasing return period. This study found significant differences among the available ARF methods. This work also found a strong geographical variability across different US hydrologic regions, suggesting that the ARF are specific to regional climate patterns and geographical characteristics and should not be applied arbitrarily to other locations. The results also reveal the importance of data record length, especially for high return level ARFs. The work reported in NUREG/CR-7271 will assist NRC staff in assessing different classes of ARF methods in conjunction with available rainfall data sets. It will also support the development of guidance for application of point precipitation data in PFHAs. It should be noted that the ARF values presented in this report for any location or region were developed for the purposes of comparing methods and investigating the factors that influence ARFs. They should not be considered official and should not be used in leu of a site-specific analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

APPLE - An aeroelastic analysis system for turbomachines and propfans

This paper reviews aeroelastic analysis methods for propulsion elements (advanced propellers, compressors and turbines) being developed and used at NASA Lewis Research Center. These aeroelastic models include both structural and aerodynamic components. The structural models include the typical section model, the beam model with and without disk flexibility, and the finite element blade model with plate bending elements. The aerodynamic models are based on the solution of equations ranging from the two-dimensional linear potential equation for a cascade to the three-dimensional Euler equations for multi-blade configurations. Typical results are presented for each aeroelastic model. Suggestions for further research are indicated. All the available aeroelastic models and analysis methods are being incorporated into a unified computer program named APPLE (Aeroelasticity Program for Propulsion at LEwis).

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

The effect of unsteadiness on the time-mean thermal loads in a turbine stage

Two steady numerical analysis methods and one unsteady method are used to study the viscous three-dimensional flow in the middle stage of the Pratt & Whitney alternate design Space Shuttle Main Engine fuel turbine. The principal characteristic of this flow is that the secondary flows generated in the rotor blade reconfigure a radial inlet total temperature distortion into one with a pitchwise exit hot streak distortion. Secondary flows in the following vane redistribute the radial variation while unsteadiness causes a segregation of hot and cold flow from the hot streak within the vane. Such redistribution and segregation can lead to unexpected thermal loads and reduced durability. The physical phenomena and the ability of a steady analysis to capture them are investigated by performing a numerical experiment whereby the results of the two steady analysis methods are compared to the time-mean of the unsteady simulation. The flow physics related to the segregation and mixing of total temperature are discussed.

Kirtley, K. R.↗

Characterisation of nano-assemblies inside mesopores using neutron scattering

Adsorption of molecular and nanoscale matter in mesoporous materials is important in filtration and chromatography as well as membrane processes. However, the morphology and distribution of self-assembled structures of adsorbate formed within nanoconfined environments is largely unknown. Small Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) with porous matrix matching the neutron scattering length density of the solvent has the potential to provide detailed information on the self-assemblies formed in pore spaces. However, analysis of such SANS profiles remains a challenge. In this study, we extend the SANS analysis method previously developed by Findenegg and co-workers to include interparticle correlations, providing a qualitative characterisation of the adsorption state of surfactants and nanoparticles in the cylindrical pores of silica nanomaterials. We find that the pore filling fraction and the self-assembled state of the adsorbate governs the scattering profile. We apply the model to two materials namely, triethyleneglycol monohexyl ether (C 6 E 3 ) surfactant and gold nanoparticles adsorbed in SBA-15 mesoporous silica. In contrast to the C 6 E 3 system, Bragg scattering dominates the diffuse scattering in gold nanoparticle system, which we attribute to the immobile internal structure of the nanoparticles. In conclusion, this new SANS analysis method has potential to elucidate structures of soft matter nanoassemblies inside mesopores.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Approximation concepts for efficient structural synthesis

It is shown that efficient structural synthesis capabilities can be created by using approximation concepts to mesh finite element structural analysis methods with nonlinear mathematical programming techniques. The history of the application of mathematical programming techniques to structural design optimization problems is reviewed. Several rather general approximation concepts are described along with the technical foundations of the ACCESS 1 computer program, which implements several approximation concepts. A substantial collection of structural design problems involving truss and idealized wing structures is presented. It is concluded that since the basic ideas employed in creating the ACCESS 1 program are rather general, its successful development supports the contention that the introduction of approximation concepts will lead to the emergence of a new generation of practical and efficient, large scale, structural synthesis capabilities in which finite element analysis methods and mathematical programming algorithms will play a central role.

Schmit, L. A., Jr.↗

A multivariate variational objective analysis-assimilation method. Part 2: Case study results with and without satellite data

The variational multivariate assimilation method described in a companion paper by Achtemeier and Ochs is applied to conventional and conventional plus satellite data. Ground-based and space-based meteorological data are weighted according to the respective measurement errors and blended into a data set that is a solution of numerical forms of the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation for a dry atmosphere. The analyses serve first, to evaluate the accuracy of the model, and second to contrast the analyses with and without satellite data. Evaluation criteria measure the extent to which: (1) the assimilated fields satisfy the dynamical constraints, (2) the assimilated fields depart from the observations, and (3) the assimilated fields are judged to be realistic through pattern analysis. The last criterion requires that the signs, magnitudes, and patterns of the hypersensitive vertical velocity and local tendencies of the horizontal velocity components be physically consistent with respect to the larger scale weather systems.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

Material and structural studies of metal and polymer matrix composites

Fiber-reinforced composites and design analysis methods for these materials are being developed because of the vast potential of composites for decreasing weight and/or increasing use temperature capability in aerospace systems. These composites have potential for use in airbreathing engine components as well as aeronautical and space vehicle structures. Refractory wire-superalloy composites for use up to 2200 F or more and metal-matrix composites for lower temperature applications such as aerospace structures and turbojet fan and compressor blades are under investigation and are discussed. The development of a number of resin systems, including the polyimides and polyphenylquinoxalines, is described and their potential for use at temperatures approaching 315 C (600 F) is indicated. Various molecular modifications that improve processability and/or increase thermal and oxidative resistance of the resins are also described. Structural analysis methods are discussed for determining the stresses and deformations in complex composite systems. Consideration is also given to residual stresses resulting from the curing process and to the foreign object damage problem in fan blade applications.

Signorelli, R. A.↗

Determination of longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives using flight data from an icing research aircraft

A flight test was performed with the NASA Lewis Research Center's DH-6 icing research aircraft. The purpose was to employ a flight test procedure and data analysis method, to determine the accuracy with which the effects of ice on aircraft stability and control could be measured. For simplicity, flight testing was restricted to the short period longitudinal mode. Two flights were flown in a clean (baseline) configuration, and two flights were flown with simulated horizontal tail ice. Forty-five repeat doublet maneuvers were performed in each of four test configurations, at a given trim speed, to determine the ensemble variation of the estimated stability and control derivatives. Additional maneuvers were also performed in each configuration, to determine the variation in the longitudinal derivative estimates over a wide range of trim speeds. Stability and control derivatives were estimated by a Modified Stepwise Regression (MSR) technique. A measure of the confidence in the derivative estimates was obtained by comparing the standard error for the ensemble of repeat maneuvers, to the average of the estimated standard errors predicted by the MSR program. A multiplicative relationship was determined between the ensemble standard error, and the averaged program standard errors. In addition, a 95 percent confidence interval analysis was performed for the elevator effectiveness estimates, C sub m sub delta e. This analysis identified the speed range where changes in C sub m sub delta e could be attributed to icing effects. The magnitude of icing effects on the derivative estimates were strongly dependent on flight speed and aircraft wing flap configuration. With wing flaps up, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at lower speeds corresponding to that configuration. With wing flaps extended to 10 degrees, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at the higher corresponding speeds. The effects of icing on the changes in longitudinal stability and control derivatives were adequately determined by the flight test procedure and the MSR analysis method discussed herein.

Ranaudo, R. J.↗

Depletion-driven thermochemistry of molten salt reactors: review, method, and analysis

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are innovative advanced nuclear reactors that utilize nuclear fuel by dissolving it in a high-temperature liquid salt. This unique feature differentiates MSRs from other types of reactors and allows for enhanced safety and economic performance. The liquid fuel also entails several multiphysics effects that can complicate reactor design and operation. One primary effect termed here as depletion-driven thermochemistry is a driving force in altering the multiphysics behavior of the reactor. Essentially, depletion-driven thermochemistry is the effect that fuel depletion has on changing the chemical redox potential of the fuel salt over time. As the fuel is consumed, the redox potential shifts toward a more oxidizing state. Without active control, the changing chemistry due to depletion increases corrosion thereby limiting reactor component lifetimes. Additionally, the changing redox potential of the fuel salt alters the vapor pressures of chemical species dissolved in the fuel salt. Changing vapor pressures of species in the fuel salt is an important parameter to understand when off-gassing volatile species during normal reactor operation, and for source term characterization during accident scenario transients. The present work represents a fundamental step toward modeling and coupling the driving physics (i.e., neutronics and chemistry) involved in altering the redox potential in an MSR. Here, the neutronic code Griffin models the depletion of the fuel-salt system, while the chemical equilibrium code Thermochimica calculates the thermochemical state of the isotopic inventory, using the Molten Salt Thermodynamic Database - Thermochemical (MSTDB-TC). These two codes are tightly coupled to predict the impact of fuel depletion in altering the chemistry in MSR systems. Redox potential control methods are discussed and can be modeled using this multiphysics approach. The vapor pressures of chemical species that could be extracted to an off-gas system, as determined by the reactor’s thermochemical state, are examined. The neutronics-chemistry coupling developed in this work is expected to have potential application for analyzing corrosion, source term evolution, and material safeguards in MSR systems. Lastly, suggestions for areas of further improvements of the models to expand these capabilities by incorporating other coupled physics effects is provided.

Walker, Samuel A.↗

Safe Operations at Roadway Junctions - Design Principles from Automated Guideway Transit

Herein this paper describes a system-level view of a fully automated transit system comprising a fleet of automated vehicles (AVs) in driverless operation, each with an SAE level 4 Automated Driving System, along with its related safety infrastructure and other system equipment. This AV system-level control is compared to the automatic train control system used in automated guideway transit technology, particularly that of communications-based train control (CBTC). Drawing from the safety principles, analysis methods, and risk assessments of CBTC systems, comparable functional subsystem definitions are proposed for AV fleets in driverless operation. With the prospect of multiple AV fleets operating within a single automated mobility district, the criticality of protecting roadway junctions requires an approach like that of automated fixed-guideway transit systems, in which a guideway switch zone "interlocking" at each junction location deconflicts railway traffic, affirming safe passage. The analogous AV protection safety subsystem is defined as fail-safe equipment that monitors roadway intersections and junctions, communicates traffic signal status, perceives and communicates alerts and signals to AV connected vehicles concerning potential unsafe conditions, and performs related primary safety functions. Conclusions are drawn that the AV protection roadway intersection functions must be performed by local roadside equipment dedicated to protecting each roadway intersection and junction. Further, it is concluded that the communications technology connecting the infrastructure with the vehicle to perform this vital, fail-safe protection should meet specific functional and performance criteria.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗