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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Data Centers and Grid Technologies at Scale

This presentation focuses on the challenge of integrating AI-driven data centers with the power grid at scale. It examines the AI data center capacity challenge and the role of new Medium Voltage Direct Current (MVDC) and other grid-enhancing technologies in enabling efficient and reliable power delivery. The session will highlight the National Laboratory of the Rockies' ARIES capabilities and planning tools, along with collaborative examples involving Verrus, Compass, and Schneider through the Agora test bed for grid-friendly data center evaluations, and ON. Energy for UPS evaluation. It will showcase the NLR Stable Grid Platform for studying oscillations caused by large-scale data centers, along with planning tools to assess grid security and reliability. Additionally, the presentation covers reconductoring strategies to increase grid capacity and explores innovative data center architectures, including the Advanced DC Architectures with Power-electronic Transformers (ADAPT) platform, which enables testing of complete DC architectures for data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-system analysis of offshore geologic carbon storage: a review of open-source data science solutions

Geologic carbon storage projects are maturing worldwide and the footprint of deployment in the offshore is expanding. At present, there are ten projects in operation or that have been completed, more than 50 in construction and development, and dozens of characterization studies completed or underway. Offshore geologic carbon storage offers potential benefits over onshore geologic carbon storage. These offshore projects are generally remote in location, distant from population centers, and avoid complicated pore space rights while having abundant prospective storage potential. Some offshore fields targeted for carbon storage have comparatively fewer prior borehole penetrations except for areas that have been explored for petroleum production, minimizing potential issues such as pressure interference and infrastructure impacts. Yet offshore geologic carbon storage projects face distinctive technical and economic challenges, such as seafloor geohazards (e.g., seabed instability), expensive maritime transport, and meteorological-oceanographic conditions that can damage infrastructure and impact operations. Analytical capabilities and improved computational speeds have advanced engineering, earth and energy sciences in the wake of the arrival of modern data science over the last decade. These advancements have created an opportunity for integrated, multi-systems modeling approaches utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning that are no longer limited by computational issues. Analytical tools developed alongside this advancement in data science can be leveraged to calibrate the potential advantages and challenges of carbon storage operations in the offshore. New methods and approaches that incorporate data science to analyze multiple aspects of engineered and natural systems can provide insights that complement the characterization and onsite engineering that traditional commercial and operational software addresses. These new methods and approaches can potentially improve the outcome of energy operations and carbon storage. Providing multi-system, science-driven data analytics enhances the knowledge base that offshore developers, operators, and regulatory bodies may draw from to improve offshore site selection and operational efficiency. Here, we provide a brief synopsis of geologic carbon storage efforts to date, an overview of the engineered and natural systems involved in offshore geologic carbon storage, and a review of publicly available, open-source, offshore and/or carbon storage related data- and science-driven tools developed by 2010 or later that are suitable for screening and assessing regions for offshore geologic carbon storage.

artificial intelligence↗
NASA NTRS1989

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Johnson, Jesse P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Particle Filtering for Model-Based Anomaly Detection in Sensor Networks

A novel technique has been developed for anomaly detection of rocket engine test stand (RETS) data. The objective was to develop a system that postprocesses a csv file containing the sensor readings and activities (time-series) from a rocket engine test, and detects any anomalies that might have occurred during the test. The output consists of the names of the sensors that show anomalous behavior, and the start and end time of each anomaly. In order to reduce the involvement of domain experts significantly, several data-driven approaches have been proposed where models are automatically acquired from the data, thus bypassing the cost and effort of building system models. Many supervised learning methods can efficiently learn operational and fault models, given large amounts of both nominal and fault data. However, for domains such as RETS data, the amount of anomalous data that is actually available is relatively small, making most supervised learning methods rather ineffective, and in general met with limited success in anomaly detection. The fundamental problem with existing approaches is that they assume that the data are iid, i.e., independent and identically distributed, which is violated in typical RETS data. None of these techniques naturally exploit the temporal information inherent in time series data from the sensor networks. There are correlations among the sensor readings, not only at the same time, but also across time. However, these approaches have not explicitly identified and exploited such correlations. Given these limitations of model-free methods, there has been renewed interest in model-based methods, specifically graphical methods that explicitly reason temporally. The Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) in a Linear Dynamic System approach assumes that the multi-dimensional test data is a mixture of multi-variate Gaussians, and fits a given number of Gaussian clusters with the help of the wellknown Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters thus learned are used for calculating the joint distribution of the observations. However, this GMM assumption is essentially an approximation and signals the potential viability of non-parametric density estimators. This is the key idea underlying the new approach.

Solano, Wanda↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Teachers’ Use and Adaptation of A Model-Based Climate Curriculum: A Three-Year Longitudinal Study

Foregrounding climate education in formal science learning environments provides students with opportunities to develop critical climate-related knowledge and skills. However, research has shown many challenges to teaching and learning about Earth’s climate and global climate change (GCC). This longitudinal study aims to establish how secondary science teachers, over time, implement model-based climate curricula in support of students’ climate and GCC education by utilizing EzGCM. The model (EzGCM) is a data-driven, computer-based climate modeling tool use to explore global climate data. Multiple sources of data collection, including teacher interviews, classroom observations, and daily reflections, were employed to address the research question: “How did two teachers’ implementation strategies evolve over the three-year study while utilizing a model-based, climate-focused curriculum?” This study provides insight into how and why these resources [model-based climate education curricula] are utilized in science learning environments, thereby informing ongoing efforts to enhance climate education and, in doing so, preparing the next generation of climate-literate adults prepared to confront this most critical global challenge of our age. The findings showed while both teachers engaged in increasingly model-centric instructional practices, these changes were modest. Furthermore, both teacher’s observed classroom practices were less model-centric than the designed curriculum. Ultimately emphasizing the transition from existing practices to improved ones, rather than seeking the perfect approach, the study offers practical insights that can honestly assist secondary educators in real-world settings by highlighting state of climate education in secondary science classrooms.

Secondary science teaching↗
DOE OSTI2026

Latency Analysis of the Nexus Digital Twin Framework

Real-time digital catalogs are increasingly relied upon to track metadata and connect disparate data sources for cloud-based data integration efforts. One such tool, Deeplynx Nexus is supporting real-time digital twin efforts through event-driven data integration and time-series queries. Nexus’s usefulness for these applications depends critically on how quickly individual records can be uploaded and downloaded, since delays directly affect the responsiveness of any system built on top of it. However, the actual latency a user should expect from Nexus has not been systematically measured before, particularly for the small, frequent transactions typical of live sensor feeds. Here we show that single-record round-trip latency is 61.1 ms on a local Nexus instance and 391.7 ms on the hosted production infrastructure, a roughly 6.4x difference driven primarily by fixed per-request overhead rather than data volume. This overhead dominates at small scale: comparing single-record and ten-record trials suggests approximately 56 ms of each single-record request is fixed connection and authentication cost rather than data-transfer time, meaning batching even a handful of records is substantially more efficient than transmitting them individually. At large batch sizes, this pattern reverses for uploads, which converge to near parity between local and hosted environments by 25,000-50,000 records, while download latency remains persistently 5.7-6.4x slower on hosted infrastructure even at scale. These results suggest that Nexus deployments intended for real-time digital twin applications should prioritize record batching over single-record transactions, and that download-path optimization on hosted infrastructure offers the largest remaining opportunity to reduce latency at scale. We anticipate these baseline measurements will serve as a reference point for future digital twin projects evaluating whether Nexus’s latency profile meets their real-time requirements, and as a benchmark for tracking the effect of future infrastructure or API changes.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Atmospheric Composition Data and Information Services Center (ACDISC)

NASA's GSFC Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information and Data Services Center (DISC) manages the archive, distribution and data access for atmospheric composition data from AURA'S OMI, MLS, and hopefully one day, HIRDLS instruments, as well as heritage datasets from TOMS, UARS, MODIS, and AIRS. This data is currently archived in the GES Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The GES DISC has begun the development of a community driven data management system that's sole purpose is to manage and provide value added services to NASA's Atmospheric Composition (AC) Data. This system, called the Atmospheric Composition Data and Information Services Center (ACDISC) will provide access all AC datasets from the above mentioned instruments, as well as AC datasets residing at remote archive sites (e.g, LaRC DAAC) The goals of the ACDISC are to: 1) Provide a data center for Atmospheric Scientists, guided by Atmospheric Scientists; 2) Be absolutely responsive to the data and data service needs of the Atmospheric Composition (AC) community; 3) Provide services (i.e., expertise) that will facilitate the effortless access to and usage of AC data; 4) Collaborate with AC scientists to facilitate the use of data from multiple sensors for long term atmospheric research. The ACDISC is an AC specific, user driven, multi-sensor, on-line, easy access archive and distribution system employing data analysis and visualization, data mining, and other user requested techniques that facilitate science data usage. The purpose of this presentation is to provide the evolution path that the GES DISC in order to better serve AC data, and also to receive continued community feedback and further foster collaboration with AC data users and providers.

Kempler, S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyperplane decision trees as piecewise linear surrogate models for chemical process design

Recent trends in chemical engineering research point towards an increasing reliance on data-driven modeling approaches. Neural networks, for instance, have proven to be accurate when data is plentiful and high-dimensional, but in many cases, they require computationally-intensive training procedures. Here, in this work, we describe hyperplane decision trees (HT) as a highly expressive and low-compute machine learning model architecture. These models are locally linear and have linear decision boundaries, resulting in a piecewise linear model of the data. This property allows them to be converted into mixed-integer linear constraints which can be globally optimized. Our open-source PyTorch implementation of this method is a fast, flexible, and accessible way to build accurate piecewise linear models of data.

Decision trees↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital Twins for Data Centers

Fueled by an unprecedented adoption of AI (Artificial Intelligence), data centers are becoming the largest growing consumers of energy. Digital Twins provide living digital models of physical systems that enable data-driven analysis and application of AI to better manage selective aspects of the data center and drive efficiency for sustainability. Digital twins have emerged as a way to create virtual prototypes of physical artifacts, which may be used in a variety of contexts. Physical artifacts include airplanes, factories, or even static objects, such as bridges or dams. Digital twin helps monitor changes and assist in predicting planned or unplanned behaviors of physical objects. In this paper, we discuss digital twins for data centers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling kilometer-scale E3SM land model simulation over North America: A new integrated framework solution

This study introduces a novel framework designed to enhance the performance, scalability, and portability of the kilometer-scale E3SM Land Model (km-ELM) within the E3SM modeling infrastructure. By seamlessly integrating cutting-edge data tools, we address existing challenges such as slow performance, limited scalability, and difficulties in software integration in current data-driven ELM simulation over large geographic areas. Our innovative approach leverages the KiloCraft data toolkit to generate unified inputs for simulations ranging from a single-cite case, to a 72,083-cell regional case to a continental configuration encompassing 21.6 million land grid cells at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. We conduct extensive strong- and weak-scaling experiments on three state-of-the-art supercomputers, utilizing up to 100,800 CPU cores across 2400 compute nodes to evaluate end-to-end metrics including wall-clock time, simulation-years-per-day (SYPD), initialization costs, and I/O throughput. Our results reveal the land (LND) component’s efficient scaling, demonstrating near-ideal weak scaling and strong-scaling parallel efficiencies reaching up to 87% at 50,400 cores. We confirm portability and reproducibility through bitwise-equivalent outputs across different machines using identical inputs over supported machines. Notably, at extreme scales, we identify I/O as a critical bottleneck and that leads to effective solution with the SCORPIO/ADIOS stack. Collectively, these findings validate the deployment of km-ELM at a continental scale with high parallel efficiency and provide essential guidance on configuration, decomposition, and I/O settings for optimized kilometer-scale land simulations in E3SM. This work emphasizes the innovative design and practical solutions that enhance the operational capabilities of km-ELM, focusing on software performance and scalability while leaving detailed scientific evaluations of simulated land processes for future investigations.

E3SM land model (ELM), km-ELM, scalability, perfor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shaping the Future of Self-Driving Autonomous Laboratories Workshop

The "Shaping the Future of Self-Driving Autonomous Laboratories" workshop, held in Denver on November 7-8, 2024, brought together leading experts from materials science and computing to address the growing need to revolutionize scientific research through AI-driven autonomous laboratories. The workshop identified critical challenges, including the integration of heterogeneous data, development of AI systems that understand fundamental physical principles, and comprehensive safety protocols. Key recommendations emerged around developing universal laboratory equipment interfaces, implementing automated metadata collection systems, and creating hybrid AI approaches that combine data-driven learning with scientific principles. The workshop emphasized maintaining human oversight while leveraging automation, transforming scientific education to prepare the next generation of researchers, and establishing a national consortium leveraging DOE facilities as anchors for broader collaboration with academia and industry. Participants stressed the urgency of addressing the growing disconnect between human decision-making timescales and modern instrumentation capabilities, highlighting the need for strategic automation while preserving essential human insight and oversight in the research process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Structure Alchemy

In an increasingly more data-driven world, the project set out to uncover the first principles of data-structure design, chart the immense design space they form, and build automation that can synthesize an optimal structure, or even a whole storage engine, for any given workload, hardware platform, and cost target. Data structures are at the center of every computational system and are directly responsible for its performance. Two core technical thrusts were defined: 1) Mapping design spaces for key data-centric abstractions (filters, hash functions, storage-engine layouts, neural-network topologies, blockchain protocols, image layouts, etc.). 2) Developing search & synthesis algorithms, initially analytical cost models, later neural-guided bi-level optimisers that navigate sextillions of candidate designs in seconds and materialise the best one as ready‐to-run code. This report distills the key insights, accomplishments, and impact.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1994

Performance results of cooperating expert systems in a distributed real-time monitoring system

There are numerous definitions for real-time systems, the most stringent of which involve guaranteeing correct system response within a domain-dependent or situationally defined period of time. For applications such as diagnosis, in which the time required to produce a solution can be non-deterministic, this requirement poses a unique set of challenges in dynamic modification of solution strategy that conforms with maximum possible latencies. However, another definition of real time is relevant in the case of monitoring systems where failure to supply a response in the proper (and often infinitesimal) amount of time allowed does not make the solution less useful (or, in the extreme example of a monitoring system responsible for detecting and deflecting enemy missiles, completely irrelevant). This more casual definition involves responding to data at the same rate at which it is produced, and is more appropriate for monitoring applications with softer real-time constraints, such as interplanetary exploration, which results in massive quantities of data transmitted at the speed of light for a number of hours before it even reaches the monitoring system. The latter definition of real time has been applied to the MARVEL system for automated monitoring and diagnosis of spacecraft telemetry. An early version of this system has been in continuous operational use since it was first deployed in 1989 for the Voyager encounter with Neptune. This system remained under incremental development until 1991 and has been under routine maintenance in operations since then, while continuing to serve as an artificial intelligence (AI) testbed in the laboratory. The system architecture has been designed to facilitate concurrent and cooperative processing by multiple diagnostic expert systems in a hierarchical organization. The diagnostic modules adhere to concepts of data-driven reasoning, constrained but complete nonoverlapping domains, metaknowledge of global consequences of anomalous data, hierarchical reporting of problems that extend beyond a single domain, and shared responsibility for problems that overlap domains. The system enables efficient diagnosis of complex system failures in real-time environments with high data volumes and moderate failure rates, as indicated by extensive performance measurements.

Schwuttke, U. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A New Architecture for Visualization: Open Mission Control Technologies

Open Mission Control Technologies (MCT) is a new architecture for visualisation of mission data. Driven by requirements for new mission capabilities, including distributed mission operations, access to data anywhere, customization by users, synthesis of multiple data sources, and flexibility for multi-mission adaptation, Open MCT provides users with an integrated customizable environment. Developed at NASAs Ames Research Center (ARC), in collaboration with NASAs Advanced Multimission Operations System (AMMOS) and NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Open MCT is getting its first mission use on the Jason 3 Mission, and is also available in the testbed for the Mars 2020 Rover and for development use for NASAs Resource Prospector Lunar Rover. The open source nature of the project provides for use outside of space missions, including open source contributions from a community of users. The defining features of Open MCT for mission users are data integration, end user composition and multiple views. Data integration provides access to mission data across domains in one place, making data such as activities, timelines, telemetry, imagery, event timers and procedures available in one place, without application switching. End user composition provides users with layouts, which act as a canvas to assemble visualisations. Multiple views provide the capability to view the same data in different ways, with live switching of data views in place. Open MCT is browser based, and works on the desktop as well as tablets and phones, providing access to data anywhere. An early use case for mobile data access took place on the Resource Prospector (RP) Mission Distributed Operations Test, in which rover engineers in the field were able to view telemetry on their phones. We envision this capability providing decision support to on console operators from off duty personnel. The plug-in architecture also allows for adaptation for different mission capabilities. Different data types and capabilities may be added or removed using plugins. An API provides a means to write new capabilities and to create data adaptors. Data plugins exist for mission data sources for NASA missions. Adaptors have been written by international and commercial users. Open MCT is open source. Open source enables collaborative development across organizations and also makes the product available outside of the space community, providing a potential source of usage and ideas to drive product design and development. The combination of open source with an Apache 2 license, and distribution on GitHub, has enabled an active community of users and contributors. The spectrum of users for Open MCT is, to our knowledge, unprecedented for mission software. In addition to our NASA users, we have, through open source, had users and inquires on projects ranging from Internet of Things, to radio hobbyists, to farming projects. We have an active community of contributors, enabling a flow of ideas inside and outside of the space community.

Trimble, Jay↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Disaggregation Algorithm for the High Resolution Soil Moisture Product from the Upcoming NISAR Mission

The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) is in the developmental stage and is planned to launch in Jan 2024 with two different microwave frequency bands L-band (~1.25 GHz) and S-band (~3.20 GHz), respectively, to provide fine-scale observations at resolutions of 5 to 10 meters. NISAR mission will provide a very high-resolution (200m) soil moisture product globally with a temporal resolution of 6 days, using L-band SAR observations. A data-driven approach is developed for disaggregating the coarse resolution (9 km) soil moisture data to a very high-resolution (200 m) soil moisture product using fine-scale (~ 10 m) NISAR L-band observations. In this study, we used ALOS PALSAR-2 L-band SAR observations in place of expected NISAR L-band observations. The developed disaggregation approach was tested on two different locations of India and USA and showed that the proposed approach has a great potential to estimate soil moisture at a very high resolution of 200m with very low uncertainties (0.02 m3/m3 – 0.04 m3/m3).

Vanama, Venkat↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Intermittency Model for Coupled CFD-Stability Transition Analysis in Hypersonic Flow

Accurate prediction of aerothermodynamic loads on hypersonic vehicles requires precise modeling of surface quantities across the boundary layer transition zone. The peak heating loads and total heat transfer are determined by parameters such as the transition zone length and the magnitude of potential overshoots in heat flux and skin friction beyond their respective values in fully turbulent flows. While previous studies on CFD integrated transition modeling using linear stability correlations have shown promise in modeling these features, they did not develop an intermittency model for hypersonic flows. This paper presents a data-driven approach to develop a model of this type by correlating experimental transition data with the relevant flow parameters. The resulting model demonstrates significant improvements over previous low-speed models in terms of predicting heat transfer distributions during the transition process associated with first and second mode instabilities in axisymmetric high-speed flows. Separate correlations for flight and ground test conditions are developed, and the potential to combine these correlations is discussed.

Transition↗
NASA NTRS2010

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds in the central fly ways of North America. We demonstrated the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers consisting of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations using an individual based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data and biological field data. With the advent of new computing capabilities enabled hy recent GPU-GP computing paradigms and commodity hardware, it now is possible to simulate both larger ensemble populations and to incorporate more realistic mechanistic factors into migration models. Here, we take our first steps use these tools to study the impact of long-term drought variability on shorebird survival.

Smith, James A.↗