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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Summary of FY25 activities on the project Realistic Reaction Evaluations for Fission Products Off Stability (RREFPOS)

Applications such nonproliferation, post-detonation forensics, spent-fuel assay, reactor burnup and design, as well as astrophysics, rely on the accurate description of the neutron interaction with unstable fission products. Current neutron-induced cross-section descriptions for these nuclei are either non-existent or based on simplified assumptions, leading to unquantified impacts on predicted cross-sections. The goal of the Realistic Reaction Evaluations for Fission Products Off Stability (RREFPOS) project is to develop a reproducible methodology leading to a more predictive and realistic new set of evaluated nuclear data, improving the reliability of applications involving fission products off stability. The current report documents the activities related to the RREFPOS project in its first year, corresponding to the Fiscal Year of 2025 (FY25).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Combined Effects of Gravity, Bending Moment, Bearing Clearance, and Input Torque on Wind Turbine Planetary Gear Load Sharing: Preprint

This computational work investigates planetary gear load sharing of three-mount suspension wind turbine gearboxes. A three dimensional multibody dynamic model is established, including gravity, bending moments, fluctuating mesh stiffness, nonlinear tooth contact, and bearing clearance. A flexible main shaft, planetary carrier, housing, and gear shafts are modeled using reduced degrees-of-freedomthrough modal compensation. This drivetrain model is validated against the experimental data of Gearbox Reliability Collaborative for gearbox internal loads. Planet load sharing is a combined effect of gravity, bending moment, bearing clearance, and input torque. Influences of each of these parameters and their combined effects on the resulting planet load sharing are investigated. Bendingmoments and gravity induce fundamental excitations in the rotating carrier frame, which can increase gearbox internal loads and disturb load sharing. Clearance in carrier bearings reduces the bearing load carrying capacity and thus the bending moment from the rotor can be transmitted into gear meshes. With bearing clearance, the bending moment can cause tooth micropitting and can induce planetbearing fatigue, leading to reduced gearbox life. Planet bearings are susceptible to skidding at low input torque.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Choked-Flow Inlet Orifice Bubbler for Creating Small Bubbles in Mercury

Pressure waves created in liquid mercury pulsed spallation targets like the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, induce cavitation damage on the target container. The cavitation damage is thought to limit the lifetime of the target for power levels at and above 1 MW. One way to mitigate the damage would be to absorb the pressure pulse energy into a dispersed population of small bubbles, however, creating a bubble size distribution that is sufficiently large and disperse in mercury is challenging due to the high surface tension. Also, measuring the population is complicated by the opacity and the high level of turbulent mixing. Recent advances in bubble diagnostics by batch sampling the mercury made it possible to compare bubble populations for different techniques in a SNS-1/20th scale test loop. More than 10 bubblers were tested and the most productive bubblers were taken for in-beam testing at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) WNR user facility. One bubbler design, referred to as the inlet-orifice bubbler, that showed moderate success in creating populations also has an added advantage that it could easily be included in the existing SNS full-scale mercury target configuration. Improvements to the bubbler were planned including a reduction of the nozzle size to choke the gas injection, thus steadying the injected mass flow and allowing multiple nozzles to work off of a common plenum. For the first time, reliable bubble population data are available in the prototypical target geometry and can be compared with populations that mitigated cavitation damage. This paper presents those experimental results.

mercury bubbles SNS cavitation damage mitigation e↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate and Simple Parametrization to Estimate Solar UV from GHI and Other Accessible Variables

This study is part of a broader program that aims to generate reliable ultraviolet (UV) data for several applications. This work presents a simple and fast parametrization to estimate UV solar irradiation at the ground level from global horizontal irradiance (GHI) information. The work focuses on UVB (280-315 nm) and erythemic UV (UVE) irradiance weighted by the average skin response.

GHI↗
DOE OSTI2022

BFSVBF (BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter) [SWR-22-87] and Multi-class BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter Keras

Bats are notoriously difficult to study, therefore, identifying specific behavioral trends and the precise environmental conditions at the time of collision requires a monitoring solution that can reliably collect relevant data. To date, thermal infrared video surveillance has been extensively applied to study bats and has proven to be a powerful yet cumbersome tool. Current analytical approaches are time consuming because data processing data has not been fully automated. In the past, steps have been taken to record avian and bat activity in conjunction with complicated image processing techniques that separate species from other moving objects within the field of view (i.e. clouds and portions of the wind turbine). Once the videos are collected, the post-processing does not allow real time monitoring and identification, leading to a delay in both studying the behavior of these species and determining the effectiveness of any impact reduction strategy being studied. Moreover, object identification capability is lacking, thus limiting the usefulness of video data. To resolve these issues, we are using open source computer vision and machine learning techniques allowing for automatic detection of objects in real-time with the ability to correlate these objects with environmental variables and recording the flight paths of each object. The code has gone through five rounds of development with images used to train the models. This advancement allows for automated real-time data collection, identification, and tracking, thereby eliminating the need for long and tedious post-analysis processing of the videos. We will discuss the two open source and publicly available machine learning models developed within this scope of this work: 1) a binary model with a 97.5% accuracy in identifying the difference between an object and an empty scene, including wind turbine and clouds; and 2) a multiple classification model with the capability of identifying the type of object detected: bats (90% accuracy), birds (83% accuracy), insects (69% accuracy) and non-biological (99% accuracy).

Yarbrough, John↗
DOE OSTI2018

DES science portal: Computing photometric redshifts

We present the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Portal, an integratedweb-based data interface designed to facilitate scientific analysis. Wedemonstrate how the Portal can provide a reliable environment to accesscomplete data sets, provide validation algorithms and metrics in the case ofmultiple methods and training configurations, and maintain the provenancebetween the different steps of a complex calculation, while ensuringreproducibility of the results. We use the estimation of DES photometricredshifts (photo-$z$s) as an example. A significant challenge facingphotometric surveys for cosmological purposes, such as DES, is the need toproduce reliable redshift estimates. The choice between competing algorithmsand configurations and the maintenance of an up-to-date spectroscopic databaseto build training sets, for example, are complex tasks when dealing with largeamounts of data that are regularly updated and constantly growing. We show howthe DES Science Portal can be used to train and validate several photo-$z$algorithms using the DES first year (Y1A1) data. The photo-$z$s estimated inthe Portal are used to feed the creation of catalogs for scientific workflows.While the DES collaboration is still developing techniques to obtain precisephoto-$z$s, having a structured framework like the one presented here iscritical for the systematic vetting of DES algorithmic improvements and theconsistent production of photo-$z$s in future DES releases.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Automatic Detection of Clear-Sky Periods From Irradiance Data

Recent degradation studies have illustrated the importance of considering cloud cover when calculating degradation rates, finding more reliable values when the data are restricted to clear sky periods. Several automated methods of determining clear sky periods have been previously developed, but parameterizing and testing the models has been difficult. Here, we use clear sky classifications determined from satellite data to develop an algorithm that determines clear sky periods using only measured irradiance values and modeled clear sky irradiance as inputs. This approach is tested on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) data from ground collectors at six sites across the United States and compared against independent satellite-based classifications. First, 30 separate models were optimized on each individual site at GHI data intervals of 1, 5, 10, 15, and 30 min (sampled on the first minute of the interval). The models had an average F 0.5 score of 0.949 ± 0.035 on a holdout test set. Next, optimizations were performed by aggregating data from different locations at the same interval, yielding one model per data interval. This paper yielded an average F 0.5 of 0.946 ± 0.037. A final, 'universal' optimization that was trained on data from all sites at all intervals provided an F 0.5 score of 0.943 ± 0.040. The optimizations all provide improvements on a prior, unoptimized clear sky detection algorithm that produces F 0.5 scores that average to 0.903 ± 0.067. Our paper indicates that a single algorithm can accurately classify clear sky periods across locations and data sampling intervals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2013

How well does the ERA-Interim reanalysis replicate trends in extremes of surface temperature across Europe?

Trends in extremes of daily maximum and minimum temperature across Europe derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis are compared against observed data. The period 1980–2011 is considered and both station series and the gridded E-OBS data are used to determine the success of the reanalysis, with indices of the numbers of days above or respectively below the 90th and 10th percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature used as metrics. It is shown in this paper that the ERA-Interim reanalysis data are generally very good at replicating both the seasonally and spatially varying trends in the indices across Europe. At the station level, the reanalysis data are also able to depict the observed trends remarkably well. However, the success of the reanalysis data depends on the season and the particular index considered. The reanalysis is least successful in replicating trends in the number of days exceeding the 90th percentile of maximum temperature, particularly during the summer season. The success of the reanalysis is also somewhat dependent on the time step of the reanalysis data used. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures calculated from the 3-hourly time step reanalysis data tend to be more reliable than those derived from the 12-hourly data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Asymmetric band flipping for time-of-flight neutron diffraction data

Charge flipping with powder diffraction data is known to produce a result more reliably with high-resolution data, i.e. visible reflections at small d spacings. This data are readily accessible with the neutron time-of-flight technique but the assumption that negative scattering density is nonphysical is no longer valid where elements with negative scattering lengths are present. The concept of band flipping was introduced in the literature, where a negative threshold is used in addition to a positive threshold during the flipping. But, it was not tested with experimental data at the time. Finallly, band flipping has been implemented in TOPAS together with the band modification of low-density elimination and tested with experimental powder and Laue single-crystal neutron data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Scouting Report: Reliability Implications of Recent PV Module Technology Trends

This webinar links recent and anticipated PV module technology trends - such as the transition to n-type cells, increasing module sizes, and new encapsulants - with potential increases and reductions in reliability risk. Market trends are drawn from industry data and projections, and corresponding reliability implications are synthesized from interviews with researchers and industry experts. The webinar is an interim step toward developing a technology scouting report.

forecast↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Collection of More than 900 Gas Mixture Adsorption Experiments in Porous Materials from Literature Meta-Analysis

Information on mixture adsorption equilibrium is vital in developing adsorption-based separation processes. Because measuring mixture adsorption is more difficult than measuring single-component adsorption, far more data of the latter kind are available. Previous efforts to compile experimental mixture adsorption data for gases have given data sets with at most a few dozen examples. Here, we report the results of systematic literature meta-analysis that produced a data set of more than 900 gas mixture adsorption experiments. This collection includes data from 125 different binary mixtures including 60 different molecular species and information from 333 different adsorbents. We refer to this data set as the Binary adsorption ISOtherm ExperimeNtal 2020 (BISON-20) Database. Because the BISON-20 data set enormously expands the number and variety of experimental results for binary gas adsorption that are readily available, it will be a useful resource for future efforts in developing new materials or processes for gas separations. As initial applications of the BISON-20 data set, we show how identifying replicate measurements can be used to assess the reliability of binary adsorption data, how the accuracy of Ideal Adsorbed Solution Theory (IAST) can be systematically tested using experimental data, and how trends in selectivity for gas separations across many materials can be examined.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Methodology Description for the Policy Analysis Modeling System (PAMS)

The Policy Analysis Modeling System is a spreadsheet tool developed to provide an estimate of costs and benefits of appliance efficiency standard and labeling programs. PAMS is a self-contained spreadsheet model that provides both a consumer-oriented analysis and a national cost-benefit analysis in the style of the analysis performed for U.S. appliance efficiency standards. The tool allows policy analysts from many countries to produce a first-cut analysis of appliance efficiency program costs and benefits, examine the sensitivities of the analysis with respect to different policy parameters and assumptions, and continually refine the analysis as more data becomes available. The methodology is a bottom-up approach, using technical specifications for particular products in estimating the increased cost to the consumer resulting from implementation of particular energy-saving designs. It is designed to operate for the widest possible variety of countries, and with as little need as possible for detailed input data. For more accurate results, it can be easily customized to use the most reliable country-specific data inputs. In addition to consumer financial impacts, the tool provides national primary energy savings and estimates of carbon emissions mitigation resulting from the program.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-D-201-04: Veracity of Data Elements in Radiation Oncology Incident Learning Systems

Purpose: Incident learning systems encompass volumes, varieties, values, and velocities of underlying data elements consistent with the V’s of big data. Veracity, the 5th V however exists only if there is high inter-rater reliability (IRR) within the data elements. The purpose of this work was to assess IRR in the nationally deployed RO-ILS: Radiation Oncology-Incident Learning System (R) sponsored by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) and the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM). Methods: Ten incident reports covering a wide range of scenarios were created in standardized narrative and video formats and disseminated to 67 volunteers of multiple disciplines from 26 institutions along with two published narratives from the International Commission of Radiological Protection to assess IRR on a nationally representative level. The volunteers were instructed to independently enter the associated data elements in a test version of RO-ILS over a 3-week period. All responses were aggregated into a spreadsheet to assess IRR using free-marginal kappa metrics. Results: 48 volunteers from 21 institutions completed all reports in the study period. The average kappa score for all raters across all critical data elements was 0.659 [range 0.326–1.000]. Statistically significant differences (p <0.05) were noted between reporters of different disciplines and raters with varying levels of experience. Kappa scores were high for event classification (0.781) and contributory factors (0.777) and low for likelihood-of-harm (0.326). IRR was highest among AAPM-ASTRO members (0.672) and lowest among trainees (0.463). Conclusion: A moderate-to-substantial level of IRR in RO-ILS was noted in this study. Although the number of events reviewed in this study was small, opportunities for improving the taxonomy for the lower scoring data elements as well as specific educational targets for training were identified by assessing data veracity quantitatively. This is expected to improve the quality of the data garnered from RO-ILS.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Recorded by Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC)

This article analyzes data from 2,200 photovoltaic systems collected through the Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC, 2018) to draw conclusions about the measured performance of the systems, how it compares to expectations, and how wide the variation is. The systems range in size from 2 kW to 1,200 kW, with an average size of 229 kW, and were activated in oSPARC between March 13, 2007 and Dec. 16, 2016. Data regarding co-incident insolation and ambient temperature are provided through the oSPARC platform for the population of systems and summarized here. Results indicate that - after correcting for measured insolation, derating for temperature, and correcting for balance-of-system efficiency and degradation as a result of system age - the performance ratio of these 2,200 systems averages 91.7%. Adjusting for known parameters such as age and efficiency, the ratio would ideally be 100%. Thus, the 'underperformance' of this system sample is measured at 9.3% and suggests that as much as 9.3% could be recovered if the systems were caused to perform as expected through optimal operation and maintenance. Efforts to correlate the performance ratio with environmental conditions resulted in very low coefficients of regression, but the method already normalizes for actual site insolation and temperature, which are responsible for much of the site-specific variation. An exemption is air-quality nonattainment areas, where the measured performance of plants averages 86.9% and is consistently lower than the average of 95.9% in areas that are in compliance with air quality standards, likely because of particulate matter such as diesel soot exacerbating the soiling rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗