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Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗

DOE OSTI2020

REopt Lite Overview & Training Exercise

This training exercise provides users with an introduction to and hands-on, interactive exploration of REopt Lite's capabilities. REopt Lite is a free, publicly available techno-economic optimization web tool for distributed energy systems, developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). REopt Lite helps organizations evaluate the economic viability of grid-connected solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and battery storage; identify system sizes and battery dispatch strategies to minimize energy costs; and estimate how long a system can sustain critical load during a grid outage. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program based in an underlying application programming interface (API) that is also free and publicly available. This training activity is structured as a group exercise. Participants split into eight groups and each group is assigned a different hypothetical site to model and assess the opportunity for solar PV + battery storage. Groups work together to develop results for their site and then re-convene to compare and discuss results, inputs/drivers of the analysis, and other factors impacting the decision-making process for behind-the-meter solar PV and battery storage.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2023

Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Overview & Current and Recent Projects

"NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program identifies, develops, and supports adoption of software and information systems, as well as novel computer science technologies expected to be needed by the Earth Science Division in the 5-10-year timeframe. Overall, the AIST Program is focusing on advanced technologies and innovative concepts with three main objectives: O1. Enable new observation measurements and new observing systems design and operations through intelligent, timely, dynamic, and coordinated distributed sensing; O2. Enable agile science analyses that fully utilize the large amount of diverse observations using advanced analytic tools, visualizations, and computing environments, and that interact seamlessly with relevant observing systems; O3. Enable the development of integrated Earth Science frameworks that mirror the Earth with state-of-the-art models (Earth system models and others), timely and relevant observations, and analytic tools. This thrust will provide technology for enabling near- and long-term science and policy decisions (""""science decisions"""" including planning for the acquisition of new measurements; the development of new models or science analysis; the integration of Earth observations in novel ways; applications to inform choices, support decisions, and guide actions for societal benefit; etc.). AIST objectives aim at optimizing Earth Science mission return – NOS from an observation point of view and ACF/ESDT from an information analysis and utilization point of view. The assets and data accessed and utilized in these systems may come from NASA and non-NASA sources. "

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

DOE OSTI2021

Survey on stochastic distribution systems: A full probability density function control theory with potential applications

Complex systems seen either in general engineering practice or economics are subjected to ever increased uncertainties that are mostly represented as random variables or parameters, and the characteristics of random variables are represented by their probability density functions (PDFs). Controlling their PDFs means to shape their stochastic distributions and in general it would provide a full treatment for system analysis and operational control and optimization. This leads to the development of stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems theory in the past decades, where the original aim of the controller design is to realize a shape control of the distributions of certain random variables in their PDFs sense for some engineering processes. Indeed, once the PDFs of these random variables or parameters are used to describe their distribution characters, the control task is to obtain control signals so that the output PDFs of stochastic systems are made to follow their target PDFs. The subject of SDC was initially originated for non-Gaussian stochastic control systems design but has found a wide spectrum of applications in general systems in terms of data-driven modeling, analysis, signal processing (filtering), data mining via multivariable statistics, decision-making (optimization) for systems subjected to uncertainties and even in economics. In this context, SDC constitutes an effective primer tool for complex system analysis, control and operational optimizations. In this review paper, a detailed survey of the developments on the research of SDC systems will be made together with their wide spectrum applications and future perspectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using M and S to Improve Human Decision Making and Achieve Effective Problem Solving in an International Environment

In the international arena, decision makers are often swayed away from fact-based analysis by their own individual cultural and political bias. Modeling and Simulation-based training can raise awareness of individual predisposition and improve the quality of decision making by focusing solely on fact vice perception. This improved decision making methodology will support the multinational collaborative efforts of military and civilian leaders to solve challenges more effectively. The intent of this experimental research is to create a framework that allows decision makers to "come to the table" with the latest and most significant facts necessary to determine an appropriate solution for any given contingency.

Christie, Vanessa L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review of Life Cycle Cost Analysis Tools

Life cycle costing (LCC) is a vital aspect of decision-making in building retrofitting. It allows stakeholders to thoroughly assess all expenses involved throughout the lifespan of these retrofits, covering initial costs; ongoing operation, maintenance, and repair costs; and disposal costs of the system. The Federal Energy Management Program of the US Department of Energy has established clear guidelines for conducting LCC analysis, particularly for investments aimed at energy and water conservation, as well as renewable energy projects. These guidelines are detailed in the Code of Federal Regulations, 10 CFR 436, Subpart A, which outlines the methodology and procedure for LCC analysis (Department of Energy 1990). The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has developed the NIST Handbook 135 (Joshua Kneifel 2022) to standardize the process of LCC analysis within the building industry. Whereas the handbook is tailored to the needs of federal agencies, its principles and methodologies can be valuable for other organizations and industries interested in conducting life cycle costing analyses for their building projects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Decision Support System

Forest-based value chains involve decisions that begin at the landscape level and extend through processing, product manufacturing, and end-use markets. However, these decisions are often made independently across sectors, with limited visibility into how upstream resource conditions, incentives, and land management choices influence downstream production systems. In forested regions of the United States, wildfire risk, fragmented ownership, and uncertain markets for low-value residues complicate efforts to align extraction, processing, and utilization decisions. Without tools that link these stages, stakeholders may overlook opportunities to improve resource utilization or inadvertently shift impacts elsewhere in the value chain. This repository introduces a decision support system (DSS) that applies a system-impact-analysis approach to forest biomass residues and co-products. The framework integrates forest inventory data, geospatial resource assessments, and economic modeling to evaluate how biomass extraction decisions influence downstream product pathways. By linking regional feedstock avail- ability with market incentives and processing options—such as fuels, wood products, or soil amendments like biochar—the tool allows decision-makers to compare value chain outcomes across multiple utilization strategies.

Davis, Maggie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

NASA NTRS2011

Using Technical Performance Measures

All programs have requirements. For these requirements to be met, there must be a means of measurement. A Technical Performance Measure (TPM) is defined to produce a measured quantity that can be compared to the requirement. In practice, the TPM is often expressed as a maximum or minimum and a goal. Example TPMs for a rocket program are: vacuum or sea level specific impulse (lsp), weight, reliability (often expressed as a failure rate), schedule, operability (turn-around time), design and development cost, production cost, and operating cost. Program status is evaluated by comparing the TPMs against specified values of the requirements. During the program many design decisions are made and most of them affect some or all of the TPMs. Often, the same design decision changes some TPMs favorably while affecting other TPMs unfavorably. The problem then becomes how to compare the effects of a design decision on different TPMs. How much failure rate is one second of specific impulse worth? How many days of schedule is one pound of weight worth? In other words, how to compare dissimilar quantities in order to trade and manage the TPMs to meet all requirements. One method that has been used successfully and has a mathematical basis is Utility Analysis. Utility Analysis enables quantitative comparison among dissimilar attributes. It uses a mathematical model that maps decision maker preferences over the tradeable range of each attribute. It is capable of modeling both independent and dependent attributes. Utility Analysis is well supported in the literature on Decision Theory. It has been used at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for internal programs and for contracted work such as the J-2X rocket engine program. This paper describes the construction of TPMs and describes Utility Analysis. It then discusses the use of TPMs in design trades and to manage margin during a program using Utility Analysis.

Garrett, Christopher J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Next Generation System Analysis Model: Recently Added Features and Future Plans

To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the Integrated Waste Management System (IWMS) program within the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various system options for the management of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW).With these tools, IWMS architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation software tool expressly designed to be capable of modeling features within various IWMS architectures. NGSAM imports data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s unified database (e.g., historic assembly information, thermal profiles for assembly heat, and at-reactor dry storage loadings) to ensure that each simulation initializes with a realistic representation of the state of commercial SNF in the U.S. Recent major enhancements implemented into NGSAM in the period since NGSAM was last presented at the WM2019 conference include: • Tracking of railroad escort car acquisition and buffer car acquisition • The addition of heavy haul truck (HHT) and barge routes for some sites, as well as support for user-defined inter-modal routes • Updates to the logic that checks the transportation cask thermal limit maps prior to package transport • An allocation method that predicts when reactor sites would pack assemblies from their spent fuel pools for dry storage, and prioritizes shipments directly from the pools of those reactor sites in the preceding periods (before the predicted loadings to dry storage), thus reducing the number of casks loaded into dry storage at reactor sites • The addition of “reactor site family” operational limits to restrict the number of loads of SNF taken from the pool and from dry storage at a given reactor site each year • Added support for multiple canister loading map options and packages with multiple compatible transportation overpacks • Updates to the handling of non-commercial SNF, including a new database that contains data to support the updates • Updates to allow analysis of hypothetical scenarios which include repackaging at reactor sites, e.g., for possible comparative analysis with other scenarios • Implementation of additional output reports, or modification of existing ones • The ability to generate and implement user edits via the NGSAM website • The ability to model loading SNF from pool storage at an interim storage facility (ISF) into dry storage at the ISF • The ability to model consolidating SNF from different existing storage containers at a DOE site into the same DOE standard canister • The ability to model transferring SNF casks from one transportation mode to another, e.g., from HHT to rail, referred to as transloading. These new features have improved NGSAM capabilities and users’ experience with the model. Preliminary NGSAM requirements for modeling advanced reactor fuels, reprocessing, treatment, and conditioning were considered, and this paper describes them at a high level. Other nuclear fuel cycle system analysis tools developed under sponsorship of DOE-NE, like the VISION code developed at Idaho National Laboratory, might be better suited for initial high-level analysis of those technologies and advanced fuel cycles. As technologies are developed and system concepts evolve, NGSAM could provide value by providing more detailed modeling of transport, storage, and disposal of spent fuel and wastes from advanced reactors and advanced fuel cycles at the fuel element and waste container level.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory: Report on Rapid R&D Solutions to the COVID-19 Crisis

With funding from the CARES Act, the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) established the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL) in March 2020 to address key challenges associated with the COVID-19 crisis. NVBL brought together the broad scientific and technical expertise and resources of DOE’s 17 national laboratories to help tackle medical supply short ages, discover potential drugs to fight the virus, develop and validate COVID-19 testing methods, model disease spread and impact across the nation, and understand virus transport in buildings and the environment. National laboratory resources leveraged for this effort include a suite of world-leading user facilities broadly available to the research community, such as light and neutron sources, nanoscale science research centers, sequencing and biocharacterization facilities, and high-performance computing facilities. Within months, NVBL teams produced innovations in materials and advanced manufacturing that mitigated shortages in test kits and personal protective equipment (PPE), creating nearly 1,000 new jobs. They used DOE’s high-performance computers and light and neutron sources to identify promising candidates for antibodies and antivirals that universities and drug companies are now evaluating. NVBL researchers also developed new diagnostic targets and sample collection approaches, and supported U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) efforts to establish national guidelines used in administering millions of tests. Researchers used artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to produce near-real-time data analysis to forecast disease transmission, stress on public health infrastructure, and economic impact, which supported decision-makers at the local, state, and national levels. NVBL teams also studied how to control indoor virus movement to minimize uptake and protect human health. NVBL’s accomplishments demonstrate not only the powerful resource represented by DOE’s national laboratories working together to meet national needs, but also the effectiveness of the integrated NVBL framework for rapidly responding to emergencies with research and development (R&D) solutions. As the fight against COVID continues, sustained efforts are needed to confront this pandemic as well as future threats. Examples include: 1) Establishing “supply chains on demand” to meet emergency production needs by leveraging the materials and manufacturing expertise of DOE national laboratories and developing advances in electronics, sensing, robotics, and automation capabilities; 2) Improving the speed and robustness of drug discovery by integrating experimental platforms with DOE’s computational and experimental user facilities, which provide unique resources to support the discovery of high-potential therapeutic agents; 3) Protecting public, environmental, and animal health by developing new testing protocols and instrumentation adaptable to diverse sample types (both physiological and environmental) to quickly detect a wide range of pathogens and monitor other biorisks; 4) Supporting near-real-time data needs of decision-makers at the local, regional, state, and national levels by advancing data curation, analysis, and modeling using artificial intelligence and new data science tools for managing and evaluating large diverse datasets; 5) Harnessing DOE’s expertise in environmental modeling to design rooms and air handling for offices, classrooms, restaurants, and other structures to minimize biorisk transmissions. Going forward, NVBL is poised to apply the unique capabilities and expertise of the national laboratory complex to future national and international emergencies, both natural and engineered. Through this framework, the Office of Science will continue to be an integral component of agency wide efforts to prepare for and respond to biorisks and other crises.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA ESTO Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST)

"(Only Talk/No Publication) NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program identifies, develops, and supports adoption of software and information systems, as well as novel computer science technologies expected to be needed by the Earth Science Division in the 5-10-year timeframe. This presentation gives an overview of the AIST Program. AIST’s previous thrusts have been New Observing Strategies (NOS) and Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF). The current vision is to connect these two thrusts and integrate them into the larger concept of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). To implement this new vision, the AIST Program is focusing on technologies and innovative concepts with three main objectives: O1. Enable new observation measurements and new observing systems design and operations through intelligent, timely, dynamic, and coordinated distributed sensing; O2. Enable agile science investigations that fully utilize the large amount of diverse observations using advanced analytic tools, visualizations, and computing environments, and that interact seamlessly with relevant observing systems; O3. Enable the development of integrated Earth Science frameworks that mirror the Earth with state-of-the-art models (Earth system models and others), timely and relevant observations, and analytic tools. This thrust will provide technology for enabling near- and long-term science and policy decisions (“science decisions” including planning for the acquisition of new measurements; the development of new models or science analysis; the integration of Earth observations in novel ways; applications to inform choices, support decisions, and guide actions for societal benefit; etc.)."

Mathematical and Computer Sciences (General)↗

NASA NTRS2025

Identifying Cognitive Capabilities Required for Optimal Exploration EVA Performance: A Cognitive Task Analysis

BACKGROUND Extravehicular activity (EVA) is one of the most dangerous and cognitively demanding actions that astronauts can execute, and the cognitive demands associated with future exploration EVA on the Moon and Mars are expected to be higher compared to EVA currently conducted from the International Space Station (ISS). Decrements in cognitive performance present an important risk to crew safety during exploration mission class EVA. Yet there is currently insufficient characterization of the cognitive capabilities required prior to, during, and following EVA. Furthermore, it is unclear which cognitive domains are most important for conducting mission critical decisions with crew safety implications. To address this gap, we conducted a cognitive task analysis of exploration EVA to characterize the cognitive capabilities, critical safety decisions, and contributing factors (e.g., lunar communications delay) important to monitor for optimal performance in future exploration EVA. This cognitive task analysis was conducted through interviews with astronauts and subject matter experts in EVA research and operations. Interviews focused on exploration EVA and elicited feedback on the cognitive capabilities required for specific EVA tasks and subtasks. The information from this cognitive task analysis will help close the gap in our understanding of the key cognitive capabilities required for safe decision-making during exploration mission class EVA on the Moon and Mars. METHOD We used an applied cognitive task analysis method1 over the course of interviews with a total of 15 NASA astronauts and subject matter experts in EVA. Each interview was led by a scientist with expertise in cognitive neuroscience from the Behavioral Health & Performance (BHP) Laboratory at NASA Johnson Space Center. Notes were taken by a research coordinator in the BHP Laboratory and interviews were recorded on Microsoft Teams to ensure the accuracy of notetaking. In the first interview protocol, participants were asked about the specific tasks and cognitive demands associated with EVA. This provided a high-level overview of the steps involved in the major tasks conducted during exploration EVA, as well as which of the steps require the most cognitive skill. Next, participants completed a knowledge audit, which employs a set of probes designed to describe types of domain knowledge of skill and elicit appropriate examples. In the second interview protocol, completed with a separate set of subject matter experts, interviewees were asked to complete a simulated incapacitated crew rescue (ICR) scenario2, which provided specific context that allowed probing around relevant issues such as situational awareness and potential errors. Experts were then asked to identify the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) underlying each EVA task and to provide ratings on the importance and cognitive demand of each KSA. Finally, participants also described the most likely and consequential critical safety incidents related to decrements in cognitive performance during exploration EVA and assessed the impact of lunar communication delay on cognitive performance. RESULTS & DISCUSSION Interviews for this cognitive task analysis are nearly complete and results will be presented in full at IWS 2025. Results will include a summary of all expert ratings of EVA tasks and subtasks, qualitative summaries of content from each interview part, and a discussion of future directions for products addressing cognitive performance monitoring and cognitive domain mapping in exploration EVA.

S R Anderson↗

NASA NTRS1981

Risk analysis of computer system designs

Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.

Vallone, A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The role of social support on midwestern farmers’ willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops

The lack of farmers' willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops (PBCs) presents a critical barrier to the emergence of cellulosic biofuel production. The willingness relies on a complex network of economic, environmental, and social drivers, among which the influence of social factors (e.g., the influence of neighborhood, community, and communication) is less understood. This study addresses this knowledge gap via a survey analysis of midwestern farmers. The survey data are analyzed through ordinary least square regression and structural equation model, which together investigate the individual and interactive impacts of multiple factors on farmers' decisions to adopt PBCs. Based on a farm-scale analysis, six statistically significant predictors of farmer willingness to grow PBCs are identified: perception of PBCs' environment benefits, education level, willingness to take risks, familiarity with PBCs, portion of peers already growing PBCs, and support of biorefineries locating in the local community. Among these, the latter three predictors are social support variables. It is found that familiarity with the crops is the most significant predictor of willingness; familiarity is also an important intermediate variable that mediates the influence of many other predictors. In addition, peer adoption can both directly and indirectly affect willingness via its influence on familiarity. Furthermore, these findings suggest that it is a pressing need to improve farmers’ knowledge of PBCs to promote the adoption of such crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for The Role of Social Support on Midwestern Farmers’ Willingness to Grow Perennial Bioenergy Crops

The lack of farmers’ willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops (PBCs) presents a critical barrier to the emergence of cellulosic biofuel production. The willingness relies on a complex network of economic, environmental, and social drivers, among which the influence of social factors (e.g., the influence of neighborhood, community, and communication) is less understood. This study addresses this knowledge gap via a survey analysis of midwestern farmers. The survey data are analyzed through ordinary least square regression and structural equation model, which together investigate the individual and interactive impacts of multiple factors on farmers’ decisions to adopt PBCs. Based on a farm-scale analysis, six statistically significant predictors of farmer willingness to grow PBCs are identified: perception of PBCs’ environment benefits, education level, willingness to take risks, familiarity with PBCs, portion of peers already growing PBCs, and support of biorefineries locating in the local community. Among these, the latter three predictors are social support variables. It is found that familiarity with the crops is the most significant predictor of willingness; familiarity is also an important intermediate variable that mediates the influence of many other predictors. In addition, peer adoption can both directly and indirectly affect willingness via its influence on familiarity. These findings suggest that it is a pressing need to improve farmers’ knowledge of PBCs to promote the adoption of such crops.

Economics↗

DOE OSTI2022

FIC Vulnerability Profile

The FIC team is engaged with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL’s) Shamrock Cyber Team to provide cybersecurity analyses of the FIC software. Shamrock offers both Threat-Based Analysis services and Secure Software Development services. These services are ultimately used to understand and mitigate threats against software and to reduce vulnerabilities in software, thus improving overall cybersecurity and informing decision makers. Shamrock’s Secure Software Development services, specifically Static Analysis Security Testing (SAST) and Open-Source Analysis (OSA), produced this Vulnerability Profile.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗