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Large-scale Nonlinear Approaches for Inference of Reporting Dynamics and Unobserved SARS-CoV-2 Infections

This work focuses on estimation of unknown states and parameters in a discrete-time, stochastic, SEIR model using reported case counts and mortality data. An SEIR model is based on classifying individuals with respect to their status in regards to the progression of the disease, where S is the number individuals who remain susceptible to the disease, E is the number of individuals who have been exposed to the disease but not yet infectious, I is the number of individuals who are currently infectious, and R is the number of recovered individuals. For convenience, we include in our notation the number of infections or transmissions, T, that represents the number of individuals transitioning from compartment S to compartment E over a particular interval. Similarly, we use C to represent the number of reported cases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Acute Exposure to Aerosolized Nanoplastics Modulates Redox-Linked Immune Responses in Human Airway Epithelium

Micro- and nanoplastics (MPs and NPs) are pervasive environmental pollutants detected in aquatic ecosystems, with emerging evidence suggesting their presence in airborne particles generated by water body motion. Inhalation exposure to airborne MPs and NPs remains understudied despite documented links between occupational exposure to these particles and adverse respiratory outcomes, including airway inflammation, oxidative stress, and chronic respiratory diseases. This study explored the effects of acute NP exposure on a fully differentiated 3D human airway epithelial model derived from 14 healthy donors. Airway epithelium was exposed to aerosolized 50 nm polystyrene NPs at concentrations ranging from 2.5 to 2500 µg/mL for three minutes per day over three days. Functional assays revealed no significant alterations in tissue integrity, cell survival, mucociliary clearance, or cilia beat frequency, suggesting intact epithelial function post-exposure. However, cytokine and chemokine profiling identified a significant five-fold increase in CCL3 (MIP-1α), a neutrophilic chemoattractant, in NP-exposed samples compared to controls. This was corroborated by increased neutrophil chemotaxis in response to conditioned media from NP-exposed tissues, indicating a pro-inflammatory neutrophilic response. Conversely, levels of interleukins (IL-21, IL-2, IL-15), CXCL10, and TGF-β were significantly reduced, suggesting immunomodulatory effects that may impair adaptive immune responses and tissue repair mechanisms. These findings demonstrate that short-term exposure to NP-containing aerosols induces a distinct pro-inflammatory response in airway epithelium, characterized by enhanced neutrophil recruitment and reduced secretion of key immune modulators. These findings underscore the potential for aerosolized NPs to induce oxidative and inflammatory stress, raising concerns about their long-term impact on respiratory health and redox regulation.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Imprinting and Reproductive Health: A Toxicological Perspective

This overview discusses the role of imprinting in the development of an organism, and how exposure to environmental chemicals during fetal development leads to the physiological and biochemical changes that can have adverse lifelong effects on the health of the offspring. There has been a recent upsurge in the use of chemical products in everyday life. These chemicals include industrial byproducts, pesticides, dietary supplements, and pharmaceutical products. They mimic the natural estrogens and bind to estradiol receptors. Consequently, they reduce the number of receptors available for ligand binding. This leads to a faulty signaling in the neuroendocrine system during the critical developmental process of ‘imprinting’. Imprinting causes structural and organizational differentiation in male and female reproductive organs, sexual behavior, bone mineral density, and the metabolism of exogenous and endogenous chemical substances. Several studies conducted on animal models and epidemiological studies provide profound evidence that altered imprinting causes various developmental and reproductive abnormalities and other diseases in humans. Altered metabolism can be measured by various endpoints such as the profile of cytochrome P-450 enzymes (CYP450’s), xenobiotic metabolite levels, and DNA adducts. The importance of imprinting in the potentiation or attenuation of toxic chemicals is discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Female “Paradox” in Atrial Fibrillation—Role of Left Truncation Due to Competing Risks

Female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a controversial and paradoxical risk factor for stroke—controversial because it increases the risk of stroke only among older women of some ethnicities and paradoxical because it appears to contradict male predominance in cardiovascular diseases. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. We conducted simulations to examine the hypothesis that this sex difference is generated non-causally through left truncation due to competing risks (CR) such as coronary artery diseases, which occur more frequently among men than among women and share common unobserved causes with stroke. We modeled the hazards of stroke and CR with correlated heterogeneous risk. We assumed that some people died of CR before AF diagnosis and calculated the hazard ratio of female sex in the left-truncated AF population. In this situation, female sex became a risk factor for stroke in the absence of causal roles. The hazard ratio was attenuated in young populations without left truncation and in populations with low CR and high stroke incidence, which is consistent with real-world observations. This study demonstrated that spurious risk factors can be identified through left truncation due to correlated CR. Female sex in patients with AF may be a paradoxical risk factor for stroke.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

This viewgraph document reviews the radiation environment that is a significant potential hazard to NASA's goals for space exploration, of living and working in space. NASA has initiated a Peer reviewed research program that is charged with arriving at an understanding of the space radiation problem. To this end NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) was constructed to simulate the harsh cosmic and solar radiation found in space. Another piece of the work was to develop a risk modeling tool that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects acute radiation effects.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

A Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. The term safely means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences (for example, excess lifetime fatal cancer risk) can be defined. The Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the understanding of health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus the fourth element develops computer codes to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

Corbin, Barbara J.↗

Automated AI-driven Molecular Design for Therapeutic Discovery

In recent years, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) approaches have revolutionized the process of designing new therapeutics, enabling scientists to rapidly respond to emerging threats from various pathogens. A prime example is the SARS-CoV-2 main protease, a key target for the development of antiviral inhibitors. In this study, we employed a novel, integrated approach that combines AI-driven iterative design of inhibitor candidates, screening based on physio-chemical properties and toxicity, physics-based computational modeling of protein-inhibitor interactions, and AI-assisted analysis of Native MS biophysical assay and characterization of designed candidates. Our deep learning 3D-scaffold model, which uses an input scaffold as a starting point, generated tens of thousands of compounds while preserving the key scaffold. To optimize these candidates, we calculated a comprehensive set of 136 descriptors, including both 2D and 3D molecular features, for compounds targeting the SARS-CoV-2 Main protease (Mpro) and a neurodegenerative disease-associated protein, cyclophilin (Cyp). The generated compounds were initially filtered based on their properties and then ranked according to their predicted binding affinity using our automated modeling and ML methods. Experimental validation of the Mpro candidates showing inhibitory activity demonstrates that our workflow can expedite the therapeutic discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen

The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal ‘flax rust’ pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Outcomes of a NASA Human Research Program’s (HRP) Space Radiation Element-sponsored Mini-Technical Interchange Meeting/workshop on Cardiovascular Disease Risk from Space Radiation

The NASA HRP’s Space Radiation Element funds research to characterize and mitigate adverse health outcomes from space radiation including cardiovascular risks to astronauts to enable deep space exploration and sustained human presence in space. Non-cancer effects such as damage to the cardiovascular system have been observed at clinically relevant high doses of ionizing radiation. However, an association between lower doses and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains somewhat controversial, especially in relation to the existence of low dose thresholds, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects, as well as gaps in characterizing the mechanisms and major pathways of disease. To facilitate, accelerate, and incubate new ideas to characterize and mitigate this risk, the Element is planning to organize a series of miniature technical interchange meetings (Tiny-TIMs) to provide a venue for HRP-funded investigators and thought leaders to present ongoing work and engage in open discussion on presented results, limitations of current approaches, incorporating better experimental strategies, model systems, etc. The initial Tiny-TIM held during the NASA HRP Investigators’ Workshop earlier this year – Upping the ante on characterizing and mitigating cardiovascular disease risk from space radiation exposure – aimed to stimulate discussion on the current state of scientific knowledge of CVD risk from space-like radiation exposure. The Tiny-TIM consisted of two 90-minute sessions; the first session concentrated on current knowledge of CVD risk from space radiation and the second session focused on innovative ideas, newer approaches, and techniques to accelerate research. The second session was followed by an open spirited discussion amongst peers on the current issues impeding the characterization of CVD risk from space radiation. The Element facilitated the discussion using a set of pressing open questions/gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed by the scientific community. The outcomes of the Tiny-TIM will be presented along with a plan of proposed future workshops and other initiatives of the Space Radiation Element.

Janapriya Saha↗

Modeling the Activity of Single Genes

The central dogma of molecular biology states that information is stored in DNA, transcribed to messenger RNA (mRNA) and then translated into proteins. This picture is significantly augmentated when we consider the action of certain proteins in regulating transcription. These transcription factors provide a feedback pathway by which genes can regulate one another's expression as mRNA and then as protein. To review: DNA, RNA and proteins have different functions. DNA is the molecular storehouse of genetic information. When cells divide, the DNA is replicated, so that each daughter cell maintains the same genetic information as the mother cell. RNA acts as a go-between from DNA to proteins. Only a single copy of DNA is present, but multiple copies of the same piece of RNA may be present, allowing cells to make huge amounts of protein. In eukaryotes (organisms with a nucleus), DNA is found in the nucleus only. RNA is copied in the nucleus then translocates(moves) outside the nucleus, where it is transcribed into proteins. Along the way, the RNA may be spliced, i.e., may have pieces cut out. RNA then attaches to ribosomes and is translated to proteins. Proteins are the machinery of the cell other than DNA and RNA, all the complex molecules of the cell are proteins. Proteins are specialized machines, each of which fulfills its own task, which may be transporting oxygen, catalyzing reactions, or responding to extracellular signals, just to name a few. One of the more interesting functions a protein may have is binding directly or indirectly to DNA to perform transcriptional regulation, thus forming a closed feedback loop of gene regulation. The structure of DNA and the central dogma were understood in the 50s; in the early 80s it became possible to make arbitrary modifications to DNA and use cellular machinery to transcribe and translate the resulting genes; more recently, genomes (i.e., the complete DNA sequence) of many organisms have been sequenced. This large-scale sequencing began with simple organisms, viruses and bacteria, progressed to eukaryotes such as yeast, and more recently (1998) progressed to a multi-cellular animal, the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. Sequencers have now moved on to the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, whose sequence is slated for completion by the end of 1999. The human genome project is expected to determine the complete sequence of all 3 billion bases of human DNA within the next five years. In the wake of genome-scale sequencing, further instrumentation is being developed to assay gene expression and function on a comparably large scale. Much of the work in computational biology focuses on computational tools used in sequencing, finding genes that are related to a particular gene, finding which parts of the DNA code for proteins and which do not, understanding what proteins will be formed from a given length of DNA, predicting how the proteins will fold from a one-dimensional structure into a three dimensional structure, and so on. Much less computational work has been done regarding the function of proteins. One reason for this is that different proteins function very differently, and so work on protein function is very specific to certain classes of proteins. There are, for example, proteins such enzymes that catalyze various intracellular reactions, receptors that respond to extracellular signals and ion channels that regulate the flow of charged particles into and out of the cell. In this chapter, we will consider a particular class of proteins called transcription factors(TFs), which are responsible for regulating when a certain gene is expressed in a certain cell, which cells it is express in, and how much is expressed. Understanding these processes will involve developing a deeper understanding of transcription, translation, and the cellular processes that control those processes. All of these elements fall under the aegis of gene regulation or more narrowly transcriptional regulation. Some of the key questions in gene regulation are: What genes are expressed in a certain cell at a certain time? How does gene expression differ from cell to cell in a multicellular organism? Which proteins act as transcription factors, i.e., are important in regulating gene expression? From questions like these, we hope to understand which genes are important for various macroscopic processes. Nearly all of the cells of a multicellular organism contain the same DNA. Yet this same genetic information yields a large number of different cell types. The fundamental difference between a neuron and a liver cell, for example, is which genes are expressed. Thus understanding gene regulation is an important step in understanding development. Furthermore, understanding the usual genes that are expressed in cells may give important clues about various diseases. Some diseases, such as sickle cell anemia and cystic fibrosis, are caused by defects in single, non-regulatory genes; others, such as certain cancers, are caused when the cellular control circuitry malfunctions - an understanding of these diseases will involve pathways of multiple interacting gene products. There are numerous challenges in the area of understanding and modeling gene regulation. First and foremost, biologists would like to develop a deeper understanding of the processes involved, including which genes and families of genes are important, how they interact, etc. From a computation point of view, there has been embarrassingly little work done. In this chapter there are many areas in which we can phrase meaningful, non-trivial computational questions, but questions that have not been addressed. Some of these are purely computational (what is a good algorithm for dealing with a model of type X) and others are more mathematical (given a system with certain characteristics, what sort of model can one use? How does one find biochemical parameters from system-level behavior using as few experiments as possible?). In addition to biological and algorithmic problems, there is also the ever-present issue of theoretical biology - what general principles can be derived from these systems, what can one do with models other than just simulate time-courses, what can be deduced about a class of systems without knowing all the details? The fundamental challenge to computationalists and theorists is to add value to the biology - to use models, modeling techniques and algorithms to understand the biology in new ways.

Mjolsness, Eric↗

Muscone suppresses inflammatory responses and neuronal damage in a rat model of cervical spondylotic myelopathy by regulating Drp1‐dependent mitochondrial fission

Abstract Cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) is a common cause of disability with few treatments. Aberrant mitochondrial dynamics play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of various neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, regulation of mitochondrial dynamics may offer therapeutic benefit for the treatment of CSM. Muscone, the active ingredient of an odoriferous animal product, exhibits anti‐inflammatory and neuroprotective effects for which the underlying mechanisms remain obscure. We hypothesized that muscone might ameliorate inflammatory responses and neuronal damage by regulating mitochondrial dynamics. To this end, the effects of muscone on a rat model of chronic cervical cord compression, as well as activated BV2 cells and injured neurons, were assessed. The results showed that muscone intervention improved motor function compared with vehicle‐treated rats. Indeed, muscone attenuated pro‐inflammatory cytokine expression, neuronal‐apoptosis indicators in the lesion area, and activation of the nod‐like receptor family pyrin domain‐containing 3 inflammasome, nuclear transcription factor‐κB, and dynamin‐related protein 1 in Iba1‐ and βIII‐tubulin‐labeled cells. Compared with vehicle‐treated rats, compression sites of muscone‐treated animals exhibited elongated mitochondrial morphologies in individual cell types and reduced reactive oxygen species. In vitro results indicated that muscone suppressed microglial activation and neuronal damage by regulating related‐inflammatory or apoptotic molecules. Moreover, muscone inhibited dynamin‐related protein 1 activation in activated BV2 cells and injured neurons, whereby it rescued mitochondrial fragmentation and reactive oxygen species production, which regulate a wide range of inflammatory and apoptotic molecules. Our findings reveal that muscone attenuates neuroinflammation and neuronal damage in rats with chronic cervical cord compression by regulating mitochondrial fission events, suggesting its promise for CSM therapy. image

Zhou, Long‐yun↗

Genome-wide transcriptional analysis of flagellar regeneration in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii identifies orthologs of ciliary disease genes

The important role that cilia and flagella play in human disease creates an urgent need to identify genes involved in ciliary assembly and function. The strong and specific induction of flagellar-coding genes during flagellar regeneration in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii suggests that transcriptional profiling of such cells would reveal new flagella-related genes. We have conducted a genome-wide analysis of RNA transcript levels during flagellar regeneration in Chlamydomonas by using maskless photolithography method-produced DNA oligonucleotide microarrays with unique probe sequences for all exons of the 19,803 predicted genes. This analysis represents previously uncharacterized whole-genome transcriptional activity profiling study in this important model organism. Analysis of strongly induced genes reveals a large set of known flagellar components and also identifies a number of important disease-related proteins as being involved with cilia and flagella, including the zebrafish polycystic kidney genes Qilin, Reptin, and Pontin, as well as the testis-expressed tubby-like protein TULP2.

Polycystic Kidney Diseases/genetics↗

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

projection↗

Warning Signs of Potential Black Swan Outbreaks in Infectious Disease

Black swan events in infectious disease describe rare but devastatingly large outbreaks. While experts are skeptical that such events are predictable, it might be possible to identify the warning signs of a black swan event. Specifically, following the initiation of an outbreak, key differentiating features could serve as alerts. Such features could be derived from meta-analyses of large outbreaks for multiple infectious diseases. We hypothesized there may be common features among the pathogen, environment, and host epidemiological triad that characterize an infectious disease black swan event. Using Los Alamos National Laboratory’s tool, Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks, we investigated historical disease outbreak information and anomalous events for several infectious diseases. By studying 32 different infectious diseases and global outbreaks, we observed that in the past 20–30 years, there have been potential black swan events in the majority of infectious diseases analyzed. Importantly, these potential black swan events cannot be attributed to the first introduction of the disease to a susceptible host population. This paper describes our observations and perspectives and illustrates the value of broad analysis of data across the infectious disease realm, providing insights that may not be possible when we focus on singular infectious agents or diseases. Data analytics could be developed to warn health authorities at the beginning of an outbreak of an impending black swan event. Such tools could complement traditional epidemiological modeling to help forecast future large outbreaks and facilitate timely warning and effective, targeted resource allocation for mitigation efforts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Centrosome and microtubule instability in aging Drosophila cells

Several cytoskeletal changes are associated with aging which includes alterations in muscle structure leading to muscular atrophy, and weakening of the microtubule network which affects cellular secretion and maintenance of cell shape. Weakening of the microtubule network during meiosis in aging oocytes can result in aneuploidy or trisomic zygotes with increasing maternal age. Imbalances of cytoskeletal organization can lead to disease such as Alzheimer's, muscular disorders, and cancer. Because many cytoskeletal diseases are related to age we investigated the effects of aging on microtubule organization in cell cultures of the Drosophila cell model system (Schneider S-1 and Kc23 cell lines). This cell model is increasingly being used as an alternative system to mammalian cell cultures. Drosophila cells are amenable to genetic manipulations and can be used to identify and manipulate genes which are involved in the aging processes. Immunofluorescence, scanning, and transmission electron microscopy were employed for the analysis of microtubule organizing centers (centrosomes) and microtubules at various times after subculturing cells in fresh medium. Our results reveal that centrosomes and the microtubule network becomes significantly affected in aging cells after 5 days of subculture. At 5-14 days of subculture, 1% abnormal out of 3% mitoses were noted which were clearly distinguishable from freshly subcultured control cells in which 3% of cells undergo normal mitosis with bipolar configurations. Microtubules are also affected in the midbody during cell division. The midbody in aging cells becomes up to 10 times longer when compared with midbodies in freshly subcultured cells. During interphase, microtubules are often disrupted and disorganized, which may indicate improper function related to transport of cell organelles along microtubules. These results are likely to help explain some cytoskeletal disorders and diseases related to aging.

Non-NASA Center↗

Simulated Weightlessness Alters Cardiomyocyte Structure and Transcriptional Regulation of Mediators Related to Immunity and Cardiovascular Disease

Spaceflight and the ensuing fluid shifts, together with an overall reduction in physical activity, lead to acute and latent effects on the cardiovascular system. This current study makes use of the rodent hindlimb unloading (HU) model to determine how factors such as sex, age, and duration of exposure impact cardiac responses to weightlessness. We hypothesize that extended exposure to simulated weightlessness and the ensuing recovery alters cardiac structure and expression of select genes, including those involved in redox signaling which together, negatively impact long-term cardiac tissue health. To begin to test this hypothesis, male and female rats underwent HU at various durations up to 90 days, with a subset reambulated after 90 days of HU. Physiological stress or contractility changes lead to alterations in ventricular cardiomyocyte size and ventricular wall thickness to adapt to greater functional demand and mitigate mechanical stress to ventricular tissue; under certain conditions, these changes also may mark progression to cardiac failure. Hence, left ventricular cardiomyocyte size (cardiomyocyte cross sectional area, CSA) was quantified to determine if HU leads to structural adaptation responses in cardiac tissue and if age and sex had any impact on this outcome. Cardiomyocyte CSA of older males (9 months) were altered by HU in a time-dependent manner, where HU led to decreases in CSA at 14 days and increases at 90 days. In contrast, younger males (3 months) did not show any changes at day 14 of HU. CSA of females (3 months) was increased in response to short-term HU (14 days) suggesting sex-dependence of structural changes. In older HU males, cardiomyocyte CSA was comparable to controls after 90 days of re-ambulation. Levels of the DNA oxidative damage marker, 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) were greater in left ventricular tissue of females that underwent HU compared to sex-matched controls, while there were no such differences in older or younger males. To gain insight into the signals that drive cardiac adaptations to HU, global transcriptomic analysis (RNAseq) was performed on left ventricular tissue of older males that underwent 14 days of HU. Short-term simulated weightlessness led to differential expression of genes involved in immune and pro-inflammatory signaling. A subset of these genes play a role in autoimmune and cardiovascular disease and are targets of current drugs used to treat bradycardia, hypertension, atherosclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis, amongst others. Oxidative damage/redox signaling pathways were not enriched at the timepoint tested in older males. Since young females displayed greater oxidative damage to DNA, activation of oxidative stress responses at earlier or later time points cannot be ruled out. In summary, simulated weightlessness in adult rats caused changes in cardiomyocyte structure in a sex and age-dependent manner, and the transcriptional regulation of key mediators of immunity and cardiovascular disease, meriting further study to define cardiac risks for interplanetary travel of human crew. Our findings also confirm the value of the rat HU model for cardiac health and countermeasure research.

Tahimic, Candice↗

Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19

We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time'" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients.The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The data used in this study was sourced before the arrival of the second wave of infection in July 2020. The proposed modeling approach, when applied at the country level, generally provides accurate forecasts at the regional, state and country level. The epidemiological model detected the flattening of the curve in California, after public health measures were instituted.The method also detected different disease dynamics when applied to specific region of New Mexico

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗