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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the shortcomings of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-the-art in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority weaknesses within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

0↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

Foreman, Veronica L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning photon detection algorithm for coherent x-ray ultrafast fluctuation analysis

X-ray free electron laser experiments have brought unique capabilities and opened new directions in research, such as creating new states of matter or directly measuring atomic motion. One such area is the ability to use finely spaced sets of coherent x-ray pulses to be compared after scattering from a dynamic system at different times. This enables the study of fluctuations in many-body quantum systems at the level of the ultrafast pulse durations, but this method has been limited to a select number of examples and required complex and advanced analytical tools. By applying a new methodology to this problem, we have made qualitative advances in three separate areas that will likely also find application to new fields. As compared to the “droplet-type” models, which typically are used to estimate the photon distributions on pixelated detectors to obtain the coherent x-ray speckle patterns, our algorithm achieves an order of magnitude speedup on CPU hardware and two orders of magnitude improvement on GPU hardware. We also find that it retains accuracy in low-contrast conditions, which is the typical regime for many experiments in structural dynamics. Finally, it can predict photon distributions in high average-intensity applications, a regime which up until now has not been accessible. Our artificial intelligence-assisted algorithm will enable a wider adoption of x-ray coherence spectroscopies, by both automating previously challenging analyses and enabling new experiments that were not otherwise feasible without the developments described in this work.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Monte Carlo-Based Method for Parallelizing Quasi-Static Time-Series Power System Simulations: Preprint

Both commercial and open source power system simulators run quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations sequentially. For yearlong high-resolution load profiles this sequential execution of load flows incurs long computation times. Parallelizing QSTS simulations on multiple processors is one possible way to reduce the computation time. Parallelization however introduces errors in the simulation results as the initial state of the system at the beginning of each parallelized time period is not known. In this work a Monte Carlo-based approach has been proposed to estimate the initial state of the system for each parallel simulation run to mitigate the errors in the final results. Classical sequential QSTS simulation is the chosen base case against which all other methods have been compared. Results presented in this paper show that the proposed method improves the simulation results considerably. This paper also discusses possible sensitivities of the proposed method to a number of tunable parameters. Additionally, sensitivity analysis results for a number of parameters have also been presented in the results section.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Online PMU Missing Value Replacement Via Event-Participation Decomposition

We introduce a new method for online Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) missing value replacement. Our approach allows us to decompose PMU event responses into a non-dynamic component (denoted the participation factor) that can be inferred directly from the past and a dynamic component that can be inferred directly from all other PMUs (denoted the event strength). When missing values occur, we can use these two components, which do not rely on the missing index, to estimate the correct value. The method is extremely fast and can easily be used for online applications. Furthermore, extensive testing on real power system event data reveals that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPEs) for PMU data dropped during event periods. Here, the method also yields an interpretable and simplified view of events for further analysis and applications. The method relies only on PMU data and does not take outside information such as network topology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗
NASA NTRS2001

Recent Monitoring of Suspended Sediment Patterns along Louisiana's Coastal Zone using ER-2 based MAS Data and Terra Based MODIS Data

The University nf Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to model coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the micro tidal Louisiana coast (Roberts et at. 1987, Moeller et al. 1993). Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Suspended sediment is a building material for coastal progradation and wetlands renewal, but also restricts access to marine nursery environments and impacts oyster bed health. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Barnes et al. 1998) observations may enable estimates of SSC globally.

Moeller, Christopher C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Retrieve Methane from IR sounder measurements Using Machine Learning-Enhanced Physical Inversion

The sensitivity of IR sounder measurements to atmospheric CH 4 is often limited due to interferences from signals of other trace gases, insufficient thermal contrast, and cloud blockage. In order to resolve the geographical and vertical distribution of atmospheric CH 4 profiles, accurate scene-dependent a priori information is critically needed to support an optimal estimation method-based physical inversion scheme. Following the principles of indexing, representation, and retrieval, a spectral fingerprinting methodology is developed to address the needs for both accuracy and computational efficiency in sounder-based CH 4 retrieval. Within this framework, a clustering method based on machine learning is first employed to stratify and identify the a priori state within the pre-constructed database, using optimized spectral radiances as predictors. The corresponding radiative kernel is then used to establish the physical inversion scheme for finding the solution. High-quality data from CH 4 data assimilation systems like the Carbon-Tracker and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, as well as the state-of-art sounder products are used to build the training database, including radiative kernels. We will demonstrate the results retrieved from CrIS observations and the associated validation work.

Wan Wu↗
DOE OSTI2025

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2015

Potential Cost-Effective Opportunities for Methane Emission Abatement

The energy sector was responsible for approximately 84% of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S. in 2012 (EPA 2014a). Methane is the second most important GHG, contributing 9% of total U.S. CO 2 e emissions. A large portion of those methane emissions result from energy production and use; the natural gas, coal, and oil industries produce approximately 39% of anthropogenic methane emissions in the U.S. As a result, fossil-fuel systems have been consistently identified as high priority sectors to contribute to U.S. GHG reduction goals (White House 2015). Only two studies have recently attempted to quantify the abatement potential and cost associated with the breadth of opportunities to reduce GHG emissions within natural gas, oil, and coal supply chains in the United States, namely the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2013a) and ICF (2014). EPA, in its 2013 analysis, estimated the marginal cost of abatement for non-CO 2 GHG emissions from the natural gas, oil, and coal supply chains for multiple regions globally, including the United States. Building on this work, ICF International (ICF) (2014) provided an update and re-analysis of the potential opportunities in U.S. natural gas and oil systems. In this report we synthesize these previously published estimates as well as incorporate additional data provided by ICF to provide a comprehensive national analysis of methane abatement opportunities and their associated costs across the natural gas, oil, and coal supply chains. Results are presented as a suite of marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs), which depict the total potential and cost of reducing emissions through different abatement measures. We report results by sector (natural gas, oil, and coal) and by supply chain segment - production, gathering and boosting, processing, transmission and storage, or distribution - to facilitate identification of which sectors and supply chain segments provide the greatest opportunities for low cost abatement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A derecho climatology (2004–2021) in the United States based on machine learning identification of bow echoes

Due to their persistent widespread severe winds, derechos pose significant threats to human safety and property, with impacts comparable to many tornadoes and hurricanes. Yet, automated detection of derechos remains challenging due to the absence of spatiotemporally continuous observations and the complex criteria employed to define the phenomenon. This study presents an objective derecho detection approach capable of automatically identifying derechos through both observations and model results. The approach is grounded in a physically based definition of derechos and integrates three algorithms: (1) the Python Flexible Object Tracker (PyFLEXTRKR) algorithm to track mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), (2) a semantic segmentation convolutional neural network to identify bow echoes, and (3) a comprehensive classification algorithm to detect derechos within MCS life cycles and distinguish derecho-producing from non-derecho-producing MCSs. Using this approach, we developed a novel high-resolution (4 km and hourly) observational dataset of derechos and accompanying derecho-producing MCSs over the United States east of the Rocky Mountains from 2004 to 2021. The dataset consists of two subsets based on different gust speed data sources and is analyzed to document the climatology of derechos in the United States. On average, 12–15 derechos are identified per year, aligning with previous estimations (∼6–21 events annually). The spatial distribution and seasonal variation patterns are consistent with prior studies, showing peak occurrences in the Great Plains and the Midwest during the warm season. Additionally, during the study period, derechos account for approximately 3.1 % of measured damaging gusts (≥25.93 m s−1) over the eastern United States. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14835362 (Li et al., 2025).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt

The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved heavy-ion PID using scintillation light detector with neural network analysis: a Monte Carlo simulation study

The photon collection efficiency of gaseous scintillator detectors varies according to the position of the impinging charged particles in the medium that generates scintillation light. Thus, when impinging particles are distributed over a large area, the intrinsic photon-number resolution of the system is affected by a large variation. This work presents and discusses a method for adjusting the total number of detected photons to account for variation in the photon collection efficiency as a function of the position of the light source within the scintillating medium. The method was developed and validated by processing data from systematic simulation studies based on GEANT4 that model the response of the Energy Loss Optical Scintillation System (ELOSS) detector. The position of the charged particle is calculated using a deep neural network algorithm. This is accomplished by analyzing the distribution of scintillation light recorded by the array of photosensors. The estimated particle position is then used to calculate the correction factor and adjust the amount of captured light to account for variations in the photon collection efficiency. The neural network algorithm provides excellent tracking capabilities, achieving sub-millimeter position resolution and an angular resolution of 12 mrad, approaching the performance of traditional tracking detectors (e.g., drift chambers). The present method can be generalized to any optical scintillation system where the photon collection efficiency depends on the position of the impinging particle.

Heavy-ion detectors↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nonlocal hyperconcentration on entangled photons using photonic module system

Entanglement distribution will inevitably be affected by the channel and environment noise. Thus distillation of maximal entanglement nonlocally becomes a crucial goal in quantum information. Here we illustrate that maximal hyperentanglement on nonlocal photons could be distilled using the photonic module and cavity quantum electrodynamics, where the photons are simultaneously entangled in polarization and spatial-mode degrees of freedom. The construction of the photonic module in a photonic band-gap structure is presented, and the operation of the module is utilized to implement the photonic nondestructive parity checks on the two degrees of freedom. We first propose a hyperconcentration protocol using two identical partially hyperentangled initial states with unknown coefficients to distill a maximally hyperentangled state probabilistically, and further propose a protocol by the assistance of an ancillary single photon prepared according to the known coefficients of the initial state. In the two protocols, the total success probability can be improved greatly by introducing the iteration mechanism, and only one of the remote parties is required to perform the parity checks in each round of iteration. Estimates on the system requirements and recent experimental results indicate that our proposal is realizable with existing or near-further technologies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

High-Performance Computing for Real-Time Grid Analysis and Operation

Power grids worldwide are undergoing an unprecedented transition as a result of grid evolution meeting information revolution. The grid evolution is largely driven by the desire for green energy. Emerging grid technologies such as renewable generation, smart loads, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and distributed generation provide opportunities to generate energy from green sources and to manage energy use for better system efficiency. With utility companies actively deploying these technologies, a high level of penetration of these new technologies is expected in the next 5-10 years, bringing in a level of intermittency, uncertainties, and complexity that the grid did not see nor design for. On the other hand, the information infrastructure in the power grid is being revolutionized with large-scale deployment of sensors and meters in both the transmission and distribution networks. The future grid will have two-way flows of both electrons and information. The challenge is how to take advantage of the information revolution: pull the large amount of data in, process it in real time, and put information out to manage grid evolution. Without addressing this challenge, the opportunities in grid evolution will remain unfulfilled. This transition poses grand challenges in grid modeling, simulation, and information presentation. The computational complexity of underlying power grid modeling and simulation will significantly increase in the next decade due to an increased model size and a decreased time window allowed to compute model solutions. High-performance computing is essential to enable this transition. The essential technical barrier is to vastly increase the computational speed so operation response time can be reduced from minutes to seconds and sub-seconds. The speed at which key functions such as state estimation and contingency analysis are conducted (typically every 3-5 minutes) needs to be dramatically increased so that the analysis of contingencies is both comprehensive and real time. An even bigger challenge is how to incorporate dynamic information into real-time grid operation. Today’s online grid operation is based on a static grid model and can only provide a static snapshot of current system operation status, while dynamic analysis is conducted offline because of low computational efficiency. The offline analysis uses a worst-case scenario to determine transmission limits, resulting in under-utilization of grid assets. This conservative approach does not necessarily lead to reliability. Many times, actual power grid scenarios are not studied, and they will push the grid over the edge and resulting in outages and blackouts. This chapter addresses the HPC needs in power grid analysis and operations. Example applications such as state estimation and contingency analysis are given to demonstrate the value of HPC in power grid applications. Future research directions are suggested for high performance computing applications in power grids to improve the transparency, efficiency, and reliability of power grids.

Contingency Analysis↗