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NASA NTRS2016

Addressing Thermal Model Run Time Concerns of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA)

The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA) utilizes an existing 2.4 m diameter Hubble sized telescope donated from elsewhere in the federal government for near-infrared sky surveys and Exoplanet searches to answer crucial questions about the universe and dark energy. The WFIRST design continues to increase in maturity, detail, and complexity with each design cycle leading to a Mission Concept Review and entrance to the Mission Formulation Phase. Each cycle has required a Structural-Thermal-Optical-Performance (STOP) analysis to ensure the design can meet the stringent pointing and stability requirements. As such, the models have also grown in size and complexity leading to increased model run time. This paper addresses efforts to reduce the run time while still maintaining sufficient accuracy for STOP analyses. A technique was developed to identify slews between observing orientations that were sufficiently different to warrant recalculation of the environmental fluxes to reduce the total number of radiation calculation points. The inclusion of a cryocooler fluid loop in the model also forced smaller time-steps than desired, which greatly increases the overall run time. The analysis of this fluid model required mitigation to drive the run time down by solving portions of the model at different time scales. Lastly, investigations were made into the impact of the removal of small radiation couplings on run time and accuracy. Use of these techniques allowed the models to produce meaningful results within reasonable run times to meet project schedule deadlines.

Thermal Analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Weather Capability for the Urban Air Mobility Airspace Research Roadmap

Traditionally, the transportation system’s resiliency to the impacts of weather is an area where neglected or incorrect assumptions can lead to difficulties later in the research and development lifecycle. To mitigate this, NASA has ongoing efforts to develop a set of research roadmaps for organizing, integrating, and communicating research into new aviation infrastructure and transportation modalities, within which weather is being addressed early on. An effort has been undertaken to add weather assumptions and requirements to an already-existing roadmap for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airspace, seeking to integrate weather requirements early in the system design. This effort addresses the way in which state-of-the art and evolving weather science and technology can enable safe and efficient travel with increasing tempo of UAM operations over time. This paper describes the addition of weather as one of 10 capabilities into the UAM Airspace research roadmap, laying out the anticipated weather technology and information requirements needed to facilitate operations at various UAM Maturity Levels. The process developed and exercised by MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers produced 41 unique requirements to be satisfied by a Weather capability for the UAM ecosystem, with more than 300 dependencies identified across the system. These requirements cover measurement, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision support, dissemination, and overarching policy, and are provided with an overview of weather challenges for UAM. The requirements were mainly defined based on subject matter expert review of existing UAM Airspace system requirements, and refined based on iterative feedback with various stakeholders including regulators, academia, and industry. Going forward, this roadmap will help researchers and developers align to a common vision in ensuring that weather is appropriately considered in the UAM ecosystem.

Timothy Bonin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Weather Capability for the Urban Air Mobility Airspace Research Roadmap

research roadmap↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Kansas City, Kansas

Pluvial flooding, over-saturated ground, and drainage systems disproportionately impact historically marginalized urban neighborhoods during extreme rainfall events. These communities are impacted by physical and socioeconomic factors that make them vulnerable to flooding events, such as high concentrations of impervious landcover, high precipitation rates, and a combined sewer system framework. Despite known vulnerability to environmental hazards, understanding potential pluvial street-level flooding events are largely unknown. Using the open-source National Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model, NASA DEVELOP examined neighborhood scale runoff retention and potential economic damages for risk mapping throughout Kansas City, Kansas. The generated outputs aid in identifying vulnerable neighborhoods susceptible to flooding and in need of future intervention. Previous studies have applied this model framework to understand urban flood vulnerability regarding ecosystem services, urban planning, and flood mitigation strategies. We utilized the InVEST outputs to develop indices pertaining to environmental justice factors of race, socioeconomic status, social vulnerability, and health. The findings indicate that historically redlined neighborhoods in Kansas City, Kansas face disproportional impacts from flood events and are subject to greater environmental stressors. This research provides an approach to utilizing an open-source flood vulnerability model to empower neighborhood-scale environmental justice analysis, enhancing the local communities' understanding of present-day impacts of historical environmental injustices.

Hadwynne Gross↗

NASA NTRS2016

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

"Gate Turnaround" plays a key role in the National Air Space (NAS) gate-to-gate performance by receiving aircraft when they reach their destination airport, and delivering aircraft into the NAS upon departing from the gate and subsequent takeoff. The time spent at the gate in meeting the planned departure time is influenced by many factors and often with considerable uncertainties. Uncertainties such as weather, early or late arrivals, disembarking and boarding passengers, unloading/reloading cargo, aircraft logistics/maintenance services and ground handling, traffic in ramp and movement areas for taxi-in and taxi-out, and departure queue management for takeoff are likely encountered on the daily basis. The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept is leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of the gate operations, which include arrival, at the gate, departure based on constraints (e.g., available gates at the arrival, ground crew and equipment for the gate turnaround, and over capacity demand upon departure), and collaborative decision-making. The IGTM concept provides effective information services and decision tools to the stakeholders, such as airline dispatchers, gate agents, airport operators, ramp controllers, and air traffic control (ATC) traffic managers and ground controllers to mitigate uncertainties arising from both nominal and off-nominal airport gate operations. IGTM will provide NAS stakeholders customized decision making tools through a User Interface (UI) by leveraging historical data (Big Data), net-enabled Air Traffic Management (ATM) live data, and analytics according to dependencies among NAS parameters for the stakeholders to manage and optimize the NAS performance in the gate turnaround domain. The application will give stakeholders predictable results based on the past and current NAS performance according to selected decision trees through the UI. The predictable results are generated based on analysis of the unique airport attributes (e.g., runway, taxiway, terminal, and gate configurations and tenants), and combined statistics from past data and live data based on a specific set of ATM concept-of-operations (ConOps) and operational parameters via systems analysis using an analytic network learning model. The IGTM tool will then bound the uncertainties that arise from nominal and off-nominal operational conditions with direct assessment of the gate turnaround status and the impact of a certain operational decision on the NAS performance, and provide a set of recommended actions to optimize the NAS performance by allowing stakeholders to take mitigation actions to reduce uncertainty and time deviation of planned operational events. An IGTM prototype was developed at NASA Ames Simulation Laboratories (SimLabs) to demonstrate the benefits and applicability of the concept. A data network, using the System Wide Information Management (SWIM)-like messaging application using the ActiveMQ message service, was connected to the simulated data warehouse, scheduled flight plans, a fast-time airport simulator, and a graphic UI. A fast-time simulation was integrated with the data warehouse or Big Data/Analytics (BAI), scheduled flight plans from Aeronautical Operational Control AOC, IGTM Controller, and a UI via a SWIM-like data messaging network using the ActiveMQ message service, illustrated in Figure 1, to demonstrate selected use-cases showing the benefits of the IGTM concept on the NAS performance.

Efficent ATM systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of a Landing System for Planetary Payloads Utilizing Passive Energy Absorbing Composite Structure

Delivery of a payload from space to a planetary surface currently requires the development of an application specific landing system to protect the payload from forces imparted during impact with the planet surface. Often, active energy attenuating systems such as retro-rockets, deployable parachutes, and airbags are utilized within these landing systems to reduce landing impact energy. Unfortunately, these active systems come at a cost; active energy attenuating systems are susceptible to system faults which may limit or completely negate their energy attenuating capability. Additionally, components needing to be stowed such as fuel, parachutes, and airbags increase design complexity, cost, and weight. To overcome these limitations, this study examines the potential of passive energy attenuation through energy absorbing structural design and composite materials to mitigate landing loads for small payload planetary delivery. Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) have conducted extensive research into developing energy absorbing structures and components for the attenuation of impact energy under various loading conditions including aircraft crash and spacecraft impact. The current study leverages this research to design a lightweight planetary delivery system which utilizes unique outer mold line (OML) geometry and passive energy absorbing structural design to limit landing loads across potential planetary surface environments. The OML geometry is designed to control impact orientation and provide self-righting capabilities for slopped impact surfaces. The internal structure is composed of composite material structures arranged to provide energy absorption which is robust to impact angle and impact velocity. The developed planetary delivery design concept will be evaluated using finite element (FE) model analysis. Simulations of landing impacts with representative soil surface environments will be used to characterize the energy absorbing capabilities of the landing system. Sensitivity of predicted impact force to landing environment, impact angle, and impact velocity will be assessed to identify capabilities and limitations of the initial structural design. Results will be used to determine the feasibility of a lightweight composite structure to passively absorb landing energy for robust planetary payload delivery.

Crashworthiness↗

NASA NTRS2021

Feasibility Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on Tensegrity Structure

For future unmanned aerial vehicles to be ubiquitous, they need to be safe to other aircraft and people on the ground even in the event of unintended collisions. Unfortunately, this is difficult for current rigid designs as a crash of all but the smallest aircraft will have a significant impact on its target. As an alternative, this pa-per explores using a soft tensegrity structure (interconnected cables and rods) as a lightweight, robust chassis for a UAS and analyze its ability to achieve stable, controllable flight and mitigate damage during a collision. Tensegrity structures are three dimensional geometric constructions which are able to undergo severe deformations without permanent damage, and can immediately return to their original shape. Experiments and analysis are performed using a simple physics simulation environment, allowing for rapid design iteration and thorough exploration of system behavior. We test multiple configurations of the vehicle to understand impacts of changing various physical characteristics, and take limitations such as modern propeller thrust coefficients and motor speeds into account to ensure our results are inline with those of a real world vehicle. We ultimately find that such a vehicle has considerable real world potential, and that a physical prototype could theoretically be constructed and flown with current technology.

Bjorn Johnson↗

NASA NTRS2008

On the Application of a Response Surface Technique to Analyze Roll-over Stability of Capsules with Airbags Using LS-Dyna

As NASA moves towards developing technologies needed to implement its new Exploration program, studies conducted for Apollo in the 1960's to understand the rollover stability of capsules landing are being revisited. Although rigid body kinematics analyses of the roll-over behavior of capsules on impact provided critical insight to the Apollo problem, extensive ground test programs were also used. For the new Orion spacecraft being developed to implement today's Exploration program, new air-bag designs have improved sufficiently for NASA to consider their use to mitigate landing loads to ensure crew safety and to enable re-usability of the capsule. Simple kinematics models provide only limited understanding of the behavior of these air bag systems, and more sophisticated tools must be used. In particular, NASA and its contractors are using the LS-Dyna nonlinear simulation code for impact response predictions of the full Orion vehicle with air bags by leveraging the extensive air bag prediction work previously done by the automotive industry. However, even in today's computational environment, these analyses are still high-dimensional, time consuming, and computationally intensive. To alleviate the computational burden, this paper presents an approach that uses deterministic sampling techniques and an adaptive response surface method to not only use existing LS-Dyna solutions but also to interpolate from LS-Dyna solutions to predict the stability boundaries for a capsule on airbags. Results for the stability boundary in terms of impact velocities, capsule attitude, impact plane orientation, and impact surface friction are discussed.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Data Products for National Drought Monitor Decision Support

Drought effects are either direct or indirect depending on location, population, and regional economic vitality. Common direct effects of drought are reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Indirect impacts follow on the heels of direct impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. In the United States alone, drought is estimated to result in annual losses of between $6 - 8 billion. Recent sustained drought in the United States has made decision-makers aware of the impacts of climate change on society and environment. The eight major droughts that occurred in the United States between 1980 and 1999 accounted for the largest percentage of weather-related monetary losses. Monitoring drought and its impact that occurs at a variety of scales is an important government activity -- not only nationally but internationally as well. The NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) RMA (Risk Management Agency) have partnered together to develop a DM-DSS (Drought Monitoring Decision Support System). This monitoring system will be an interactive portal that will provide users the ability to visualize and assess drought at all levels. This candidate solution incorporates atmospherically corrected VIIRS data products, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and Ocean SST (sea surface temperature), and AMSR-E soil moisture data products into two NDMC vegetation indices -- VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) and VegOUT (Vegetation Outlook) -- which are then input into the DM-DSS.

Estep, Leland↗

NASA NTRS2012

ExMC Technology Watch

The Technology Watch (Tech Watch) project is a NASA endeavor conducted under the Human Research Programs (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element, and focusing on ExMC technology gaps. The project involves several NASA centers, including the Johnson Space Center (JSC), Glenn Research Center (GRC), Ames Research Center (ARC), and the Langley Research Center (LaRC). The objective of Tech Watch is to identify emerging, high-impact technologies that augment current NASA HRP technology development efforts. Identifying such technologies accelerates the development of medical care and research capabilities for the mitigation of potential health issues encountered during human space exploration missions. The aim of this process is to leverage technologies developed by academia, industry and other government agencies and to identify the effective utilization of NASA resources to maximize the HRP return on investment. The establishment of collaborations with these entities is beneficial to technology development, assessment and/or insertion and further NASAs goal to provide a safe and healthy environment for human exploration. In 2011, the major focus areas for Tech Watch included information dissemination, education outreach and public accessibility to technology gaps and gap reports. The dissemination of information was accomplished through site visits to research laboratories and/or companies, and participation at select conferences where Tech Watch objectives and technology gaps were presented. Presentation of such material provided researchers with insights on NASA ExMC needs for space exploration and an opportunity to discuss potential areas of common interest. The second focus area, education outreach, was accomplished via two mechanisms. First, several senior student projects, each related to an ExMC technology gap, were sponsored by the various NASA centers. These projects presented ExMC related technology problems firsthand to collegiate laboratories. Second, a RASC-AL (Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts Academic Linkage) topic for FY12 was developed for medical systems and astronaut health under the Human-Focused Mars Mission Systems and Technologies theme. Announcement of the competition was made to the public in August 2011. Finally, critical Tech Watch information was prepared for public release in the form of gap reports. Complementing the ExMC technology gaps in the public domain, gap reports were generated, reviewed and revised through a series of technical, medical and subject matter expert reviews before approval for public release. An important vehicle for the public release of such documents was development of the ExMC wiki website, which will continue to be populated with gap reports and relevant documents throughout the upcoming year.

Krihak, M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

ExMC Technology Watch

The Technology Watch (Tech Watch) project is a NASA project that is operated under the Human Research Programs (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element, and focuses on ExMC technology gaps. The project coordinates the efforts of several NASA centers, including the Johnson Space Center (JSC), Glenn Research Center (GRC), Ames Research Center (ARC), and the Langley Research Center (LaRC). The objective of Tech Watch is to identify emerging, high-impact technologies that augment current NASA HRP technology development efforts. Identifying such technologies accelerates the development of medical care and research capabilities for the mitigation of potential health issues encountered during human space exploration missions. The aim of this process is to leverage technologies developed by academia, industry and other government agencies and to identify the effective utilization of NASA resources to maximize the HRP return on investment. The establishment of collaborations with these entities is beneficial to technology development, assessment and/or insertion and further NASAs goal to provide a safe and healthy environment for human exploration. In 2012, the Tech Watch project expanded the scope of activities to cultivate student projects targeted at specific ExMC gaps, generate gap reports for a majority of the ExMC gaps and maturate a gap report review process to optimize the technical and managerial aspects of ExMC gap status. Through numerous site visits and discussions with academia faculty, several student projects were initiated and/or completed this past year. A key element to these student projects was the ability of the project to align with a specific ExMC technology or knowledge gap. These projects were mentored and reviewed by Tech Watch leads at the various NASA centers. Another result of the past years efforts was the population of the ExMC wiki website that now contains more the three quarters of the ExMC gap reports. The remaining gap reports will be completed in FY13. Finally, the gap report review process for all ExMC gaps was initiated. This review process was instrumental in ensuring that each gap report was thoroughly reviewed for accuracy and relevant content prior to its public release. In the upcoming year, the gap report review process will be refined such that in addition to the gap report update, programmatic information related to gap closure will also be emphasized.

Krihak, M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

ExMC Technology Watch

The Technology Watch (Tech Watch) project is directed by the NASA Human Research Programs (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element, and primarily focuses on ExMC technology gaps. The project coordinates the efforts of multiple NASA centers, including the Johnson Space Center (JSC), Glenn Research Center (GRC), Ames Research Center (ARC), and the Langley Research Center (LaRC). The objective of Tech Watch is to identify emerging, high-impact technologies that augment current NASA HRP technology development efforts. Identifying such technologies accelerates the development of medical care and research capabilities for the mitigation of potential health issues encountered during human space exploration missions. The aim of this process is to leverage technologies developed by academia, industry and other government agencies and to identify the effective utilization of NASA resources to maximize the HRP return on investment. The establishment of collaborations with these entities is beneficial to technology development, assessment and/or insertion, and advance NASAs goal to provide a safe and healthy environment for human exploration. In fiscal year 2013, the Tech Watch project maintained student project activity aimed at specific ExMC gaps, completed the gap report review cycle for all gaps through a maturated gap report review process, and revised the ExMC Tech Watch Sharepoint site for enhanced data content and organization. Through site visits, internships and promotions via aerospace journals, several student projects were initiated and completed this past year. Upon project completion, the students presented their results via telecom or WebEx to the ExMC Element as a whole. The upcoming year will continue to forge strategic alliances and student projects in the interest of technology and knowledge gap closure. Through the population of Sharepoint with technologies assessed by the gap owners, the database expansion will develop a more comprehensive technology set for each gap. By placing such data in Sharepoint, the gap report updates in fiscal year 2014 are anticipated to be streamlined since the evaluated technologies will be readily available to the gap owners in a sortable archive, and may be simply exported into the final gap report presentation.

Technology gaps↗

NASA NTRS2014

ExMC Technology Watch

The Technology Watch (Tech Watch) project is directed by the NASA Human Research Program's (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element, and primarily focuses on ExMC technology gaps. The project coordinates the efforts of multiple NASA centers, including the Johnson Space Center (JSC), Glenn Research Center (GRC), Ames Research Center (ARC), and the Langley Research Center (LaRC). The objective of Tech Watch is to identify emerging, high-impact technologies that augment current NASA HRP technology development efforts. Identifying such technologies accelerates the development of medical care and research capabilities for the mitigation of potential health issues encountered during human space exploration missions. The aim of this process is to leverage technologies developed by academia, industry and other government agencies and to identify the effective utilization of NASA resources to maximize the HRP return on investment. The establishment of collaborations with these entities is beneficial to technology development, assessment and/or insertion, and advance NASA's goal to provide a safe and healthy environment for human exploration. In fiscal year 2013, the Tech Watch project maintained student project activity aimed at specific ExMC gaps, completed the gap report review cycle for all gaps through a maturated gap report review process, and revised the ExMC Tech Watch Sharepoint site for enhanced data content and organization. Through site visits, internships and promotions via aerospace journals, several student projects were initiated and completed this past year. Upon project completion, the students presented their results via telecom or WebEx to the ExMC Element as a whole. The upcoming year will continue to forge strategic alliances and student projects in the interest of technology and knowledge gap closure. Through the population of Sharepoint with technologies assessed by the gap owners, the database expansion will develop a more comprehensive technology set for each gap. By placing such data in Sharepoint, the gap report updates in fiscal year 2014 are anticipated to be streamlined since the evaluated technologies will be readily available to the gap owners in a sortable archive, and may be simply exported into the final gap report presentation

Exploration Medical Capability↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Non-Uniform Beam Filling on Spaceborne Cloud and Precipitation Radar Retrieval Algorithms

In this presentation we will discuss the performance of classification and retrieval algorithms for spaceborne cloud and precipitation radars such as the Global Precipitation Measurement mission Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM/DPR), and notional radar for the Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystem (ACE) mission and related concepts. Spaceborne radar measurements are simulated either from Airborne Precipitation Radar 2nd Generation observations, or from atmospheric model outputs via instrument simulators contained in the NASA Earth Observing Systems Simulators Suite (NEOS(sup 3)). Both methods account for the three dimensional nature of the scattering field at resolutions smaller than that of the spaceborne radar under consideration. We will focus on the impact of non-homogeneities of the field of hydrometeors within the beam. We will discuss also the performance of methods to identify and mitigate such conditions, and the resulting improvements in retrieval accuracy. The classification and retrieval algorithms analyzed in this study are those derived from APR-2's Suite of Processing and Retrieval Algorithms (ASPRA); here generalized to operate on an arbitrary set of radar configuration parameters to study the expected performance of spaceborne cloud and precipitation radars. The presentation will highlight which findings extend to other algorithm families and which ones do not.

Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystem (ACE)↗

NASA NTRS2012

ExMC Technology Watch

The Technology Watch (Tech Watch) project is a NASA endeavor conducted under the Human Research Program's (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element, and focusing on ExMC technology gaps. The project involves several NASA centers, including the Johnson Space Center (JSC), Glenn Research Center (GRC), Ames Research Center (ARC), and the Langley Research Center (LaRC). The objective of Tech Watch is to identify emerging, high-impact technologies that augment current NASA HRP technology development efforts. Identifying such technologies accelerates the development of medical care and research capabilities for the mitigation of potential health issues encountered during human space exploration missions. The aim of this process is to leverage technologies developed by academia, industry and other government agencies and to identify the effective utilization of NASA resources to maximize the HRP return on investment. The establishment of collaborations with these entities is beneficial to technology development, assessment and/or insertion and further NASA's goal to provide a safe and healthy environment for human exploration. In 2011, the major focus areas for Tech Watch included information dissemination, education outreach and public accessibility to technology gaps and gap reports. The dissemination of information was accomplished through site visits to research laboratories and/or companies, and participation at select conferences where Tech Watch objectives and technology gaps were presented. Presentation of such material provided researchers with insights on NASA ExMC needs for space exploration and an opportunity to discuss potential areas of common interest. The second focus area, education outreach, was accomplished via two mechanisms. First, several senior student projects, each related to an ExMC technology gap, were sponsored by the various NASA centers. These projects presented ExMC related technology problems firsthand to collegiate laboratories. Second, a RASC-AL (Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts - Academic Linkage) topic for FY12 was developed for medical systems and astronaut health under the Human-Focused Mars Mission Systems and Technologies theme. Announcement of the competition was made to the public in August 2011. Finally, critical Tech Watch information was prepared for public release in the form of gap reports. Complementing the ExMC technology gaps in the public domain, gap reports were generated, reviewed and revised through a series of technical, medical and subject matter expert reviews before approval for public release. An important vehicle for the public release of such documents was development of the ExMC wiki website, which will continue to be populated with gap reports and relevant documents throughout the upcoming year.

Exploration medical capability↗

NASA NTRS2023

Climate and Human Impacts on Hydrological Processes and Flood Risk in Southern Louisiana

Satellite observations of coastal Louisiana indicate an overall land loss over recent decades, which could be attributed to climate and human-induced factors, including sea level rise (SLR). Climate induced hydrological change (CHC) has impacted the way flood control structures are used, altering the spatiotemporal water distribution. Based on “what-if” scenarios, we determine relative impacts of SLR and CHC on increased flood risk over southern Louisiana and examine the role of water management, via flood control structures, in mitigating flood risk over the region. Our findings show that CHC has increased flood risk over the past 28 years. The number of affected people increases as extreme hydrological events become more exceptional. Water management reduces flood risk to urban areas and croplands, especially during exceptional hydrological events. For example, currently (i.e., 2016-2020 period), CHC-induced flooding puts an additional 73km2 of cropland under flood risk at least half of the time (median flood event) and 65km2 once a year (annual flood event), when compared to a past period (1993-1997). A ten- to twenty-fold increase relative to SLR-induced flooding. CHC also increases population vulnerability in southern Louisiana to flooding; additional 9900 residents currently live under flood risk at least half of the time, and that number increases to 27,400 for annual flood events. Residents vulnerable to SLR induced flooding is lower (6000 and 3300 residents, respectively). Conclusions are that CHC is a major factor that should be accounted for flood resilience and that water management interventions can mitigate risks to human life and activities.

Augusto Getirana↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Anthropogenic Pathways for Modeling and Managing Future Arctic Fires

Wildland fires, including extreme fire events and seasons, are becoming more common in the boreal and Arctic regions due to climate change. Current climate modeling approaches do not include country- or region-specific socioeconomic pathways that specifically address the drivers of and potential mitigation techniques for wildland fires. Forest management, energy extraction, and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness as well as fuels treatment, can have a significant impact on future wildland fire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of anthropogenic factors and to align with previous work done on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), climate pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 were created for the states that compose the original Arctic Council countries: Canada, the United States, the Kingdom of Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and Finland as well as the Russian Federation (with whom the other seven countries withdrew participation from in May 2022 due to the invasion and ongoing war in Ukraine). High and low fire activity and risk pathways for all states comprising the Arctic were made, with expert ‘best guess’ pathways for each state created separately to represent the middle of road. The low activity and low fire risk pathways, named “We Got This”, assume active fire suppression via citizenry participation and official land management, efficient and extensive fuel treatments, and consistent and active wildland firefighting for each new ignition. The high activity and high fire risk pathways, named “Let It Burn”, assume nearly the opposite, due to lack of government and community response and no action on climate change drivers that increase wildland fire risk. The ‘best guess’ pathway, named “The Fire Will Come”, indicates that some countries are currently on the pathway for less fire compared to other Arctic and Boreal states but not a ‘no-fire’ future. For example, in the Nordic countries, human ignition sources from tourism, timber and energy extraction, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In North America, these same risks will apply but also may see an expansion of agriculture that increases the likelihood of open burning in croplands. Drier fuel condition and extreme heat events due to climate change create favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic and boreal lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra fires in addition to forest fires in hard-to-reach locations that are more difficult to coordinate and execute wildland firefighting. To move the future Arctic fire SSPs forward, several short-term and long-term actions must be completed. Certain data needs are required, like a harmonized pan-Arctic and pan-boreal fuels geospatial product, while also a need to refine and socialize current definitions of fire seasons and fire management – including developing an open-source system to track and share innovation, mitigation, and adaptation strategies across Arctic states.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Operation↗