Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Counting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35

Clustering Days with Similar Airport Weather Conditions

On any given day, traffic flow managers must often rely on past experience and intuition when developing traffic flow management initiatives that mitigate imbalances between the aircraft demand and the weather impacted airport capacity. The goal of this study was to build on recent efforts to apply data mining classification and clustering algorithms to vast archives of historical weather and air traffic data to identify patterns and past decisions that can ultimately inform day-of-operations decision-making. More specifically, this study identified similar weather impacted days at select U.S. airports, and analyzed the traffic management initiatives implemented on these representative days. The identification of the similar days was accomplished by applying a decision tree algorithm to the hourly Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the arrival delays for Newark Liberty International Airport. The branches from the trained decision tree were subsequently pruned to identify four weather conditions that resulted in medium to high delays for the arrivals scheduled to Newark in 2012. Using these weather conditions, four, daily airport-level Weather Impacted Traffic Index values were calculated using the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the 2012 scheduled arrival counts from the FAAs Aviation System Performance Metric system. The four, daily Weather Impacted Traffic Index values for 2012 were subsequently clustered using an Expectation Maximization clustering algorithm, and nine unique types of weather days at Newark were identified. By far the most prominent type of day at Newark was a day associated with relatively good weather conditions, where there was little convective activity, winds were low, ceilings and visibility were high and there was little precipitation. Moderate levels of convective activity characterized the next most prominent type of day. Days with persistently high winds or low ceiling and visibility levels were relatively rare in 2012. Lastly, the frequency at which Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops and Miles-in-Trail restrictions were implemented on each of the typical types of days at Newark were analyzed. Based on the results, it does appear as if the usage of Miles-in-Trail, Ground Delay Program and Ground Stop restrictions correlates well with the severity of the weather associated with each unique type of weather impacted day at Newark. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that it is feasible to use historical weather and air traffic archives to provide guidance on the types of traffic management restrictions to implement in response to the weather conditions impacting an airport.

weather↗

Dynamical Models for the Sculptor Dwarf Spheroidal in a ΛCDM Universe

The Sculptor dwarf spheroidal galaxy appears to contain two distinct stellar populations of differing metallicity. Several authors have argued that in order for these two populations to reside in the same gravitational potential, the dark matter halo must have a core similar to that observed in the stellar count profile. This would exclude cuspy Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) density profiles of the kind predicted for halos and subhalos by dark matter-only simulations of the ΛCDM cosmological model. We present a new theoretical framework to analyze observations of stellar count and velocity in a self-consistent manner based on separable models, f(E,J)=g(J)h(E), for the distribution function of an equilibrium spherical system. We use this machinery to analyze available photometric and kinematic data for the two stellar populations in Sculptor. We find, contrary to some previous claims, that the data are consistent with populations in equilibrium within an NFW dark matter potential with structural parameters in the range expected in ΛCDM; we find no statistical preference for a potential with a core. Our models allow a maximum circular velocity for Sculptor between 20 and 35 km s{sup −1}. We discuss why some previous authors came to a different conclusion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A coasting cosmology

A Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology with energy density decreasing in expansion as 1/R-squared, where R is the Robertson-Walker scale factor, is studied. In such a model the universe expands with constant velocity; hence the term coasting cosmology. Observational consequences of such a model include the age of the universe, the luminosity distance-redshift relation (the Hubble diagram), the angular diameter distance-redshift relation, and the galaxy number count as a function of redshift. These observations are used to limit the parameters of the model. Among the interesting consequences of the model are the possibility of an ever-expanding closed universe, a model universe with multiple images at different redshifts of the same object, a universe with Omega - 1 not equal to 0 stable in expansion, and a closed universe with radius smaller than 1/H(0).

Kolb, Edward W.↗

Microanalysis of Primary Biological Particles from Model Grass over Its Life Cycle

Airborne biological aerosols are an integral part of the atmosphere–biosphere interface and significantly impact the environment and Earth’s climate. Primary biological particles such as fungal spores, bacteria, and fragments of plant debris are emitted directly from the biosphere into the atmosphere. The phyllosphere (aboveground plant surfaces) is one of the major habitats for different microbes. Here, atmospheric emissions of primary biological particles from model grass Brachypodium distachyon were monitored by online particle number concentration counting at eight principal growth stages starting from leaf development to senescence. Particles collected at each of the growth stages were then characterized using microspectroscopy techniques. Our findings indicate that the morphological and compositional characteristics of emitted biological particles are highly variable at the different growth stages. We identified fungal spores as the most abundant biological particles in the heading stage, while bacteria were most abundant in the flowering and fruit development stages. Understanding differences in the composition and morphology of biological particles during the plant life cycle provides more accurate and reliable insights on structural, functional, and biochemical properties of plant systems, as well as their interactions with microbial communities. This study also provides insights into Earth geoscience system models that represent primary biological particle emissions from the biosphere.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

External Tank Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) Prepress Regression Analysis Independent Review Technical Consultation Report

The request to conduct an independent review of regression models, developed for determining the expected Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) External Tank (ET)-04 cycle count for the Space Shuttle ET tanking process, was submitted to the NASA Engineering and Safety Center NESC on September 20, 2005. The NESC team performed an independent review of regression models documented in Prepress Regression Analysis, Tom Clark and Angela Krenn, 10/27/05. This consultation consisted of a peer review by statistical experts of the proposed regression models provided in the Prepress Regression Analysis. This document is the consultation's final report.

Parsons, Vickie s.↗

Boron-10 Lined Proportional Counter Model Validation

The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Safeguards (NA-241) is supporting the project “Coincidence Counting With Boron-Based Alternative Neutron Detection Technology” at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the development of an alternative neutron coincidence counter. The goal of this project is to design, build and demonstrate a boron-lined proportional tube-based alternative system in the configuration of a coincidence counter. This report discusses the validation studies performed to establish the degree of accuracy of the computer modeling methods current used to simulate the response of boron-lined tubes. This is the precursor to developing models for the uranium neutron coincidence collar under Task 2 of this project.

born lined tubes↗

Comparison of new and existing algorithms for the analysis of 2D radioxenon beta gamma spectra

The aim of this paper is to compare radioxenon beta-gamma analysis algorithms using simulated spectra with experimentally measured background, where the ground truth of the signal is known. We believe that this is among the largest efforts to date in terms of the number of synthetic spectra generated and number of algorithms compared using identical spectra. We generate an estimate for the Minimum Detectable Counts (MDC) for each isotope using each algorithm. The paper also points out a conceptual model to put the various algorithms into a continuum. Our results show that existing algorithms can be improved and some newer algorithms can be better than the currently used ones.

actinides↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge and support human space missions. Through artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in space biosciences and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and mission operations autonomy. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the space biology field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate muscular underpinnings of muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interactions, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets enabling programmers to identify best algorithms to answer space biology questions.

space biology↗

SSA Monte Carlo and Master Equation Modeling of Neutron Leakage Distributions

Strongly stochastic neutron populations in highly subcritical multiplying media containing weak spontaneous fission sources are unique indicators of the presence of SNM. For instance, in neutron multiplicity counting, an extended tail in the count number probability distribution is observed that is a characteristic of and sensitive to the amount of SNM present. Theoretical modeling and efficient computation of stochastic neutron distributions are complementary to experimental measurements and moreover shed light on the fundamental interactions and transport processes that underlie nuclear signatures. Modeling approaches that are intermediate between gross-system level models and high-fidelity but computationally demanding Monte Carlo simulations are of particular interest in this regard. Furthermore we present three advances on existing work in point kinetic or lumped geometry: (i) implementation of the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA), a system state-updating Monte Carlo method that is more e cient than single-event Monte Carlo in lumped geometries, (ii) application of the backward Master equation to obtain time-gated count moments, and (iii) reconstructing the count number distribution from the deterministically computed moments using a generalized Laguerre polynomial expansion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

MEASUREMENTS OF THE SOFT GAMMA-RAY EMISSION FROM SN2014J WITH SUZAKU

The hard X-ray detector (HXD) on board Suzaku measured soft γ -rays from the SN Ia SN2014J at 77 ± 2 days after the explosion. Although the confidence level of the signal is about 90% (i.e., 2 σ ), the 3 σ upper limit has been derived at <2.2 × 10{sup −4} ph s{sup −1} cm{sup −2} in the 170–250 keV band as the first independent measurement of soft γ -rays with an instrument other than INTEGRAL . For this analysis, we have examined the reproducibility of the NXB model of HXD/GSO using blank sky data. We find that the residual count rate in the 90–500 keV band is distributed around an average of 0.19% with a standard deviation of 0.42% relative to the NXB rate. The averaged residual signals are consistent with that expected from the cosmic X-ray background. The flux of SN2014J derived from Suzaku measurements taken in one snapshot at t = 77 ± 2 days after the explosion is consistent with the INTEGRAL values averaged over the period between t = 50 and 100 days and also with explosion models of single or double degenerate scenarios. Being sensitive to the total ejecta mass surrounding the radioactive material, the ratio between continuum and line flux in the soft gamma-ray regime might distinguish different progenitor models. The Suzaku data have been examined with this relation at t = 77 ± 2 days, but could not distinguish models between single and double degenerate-progenitors. We disfavor explosion models with larger {sup 56}Ni masses than 1 M {sub ⊙}, from our 1 σ error on the 170–250 keV X-ray flux of (1.2 ± 0.7) × 10{sup −4} ph s{sup −1} cm{sup −2}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Collisional and dynamical history of Gaspra

Interpretation of the impact record on Gaspra requires understanding of the effects of collisions on a target body of Gaspra's size and shape, recognition of impact features that may have different morphologies from craters on larger planets, and models of the geological processes that erase and modify impact features. Crater counts on the 140 sq km of Gaspra imaged at highest resolution by the Galileo spacecraft show a steep size-frequency distribution (cumulative power-law index near -3.5) from the smallest resolvable size (150 m diameter) up through the large feature (1.5 km diameter crater) of familiar crater-like morphology. In addition, there appear to be as many as eight roughly circular concavities with diameters greater than 3 km visible on the asteroid. If we restrict our crater counts to features with traditionally recognized crater morphologies, these concavities would not be included. However, if we define craters to include any concave structures that may represent local or regional damage at an impact size, then the larger features on Gaspra are candidates for consideration. Acceptance of the multi-km features as craters has been cautious for several reasons. First, scaling laws (the physically plausible algorithms for extrapolating from experimental data) indicate that Gaspra could not have sustained such large-crater-forming impacts without being disrupted; second, aside from concavity, the larger structures have no other features (e.g. rims) that can be identified with known impact craters; and third, extrapolation of the power-law size distribution for smaller craters predicts no craters larger than 3 km over the entire surface. On the other hand, recent hydrocode modeling of impacts shows that for given impact (albeit into a sphere), the crater size is much larger than given by scaling laws. Gaspra-size bodies can sustain formation of up to 8-km craters without disruption. Besides allowing larger impact craters, this result doubles the lifetime since the last catastrophic fragmentation event up to one billion years. Events that create multi-km craters also globally damage the material structure, such that regolith is produced, whether or not Gaspra 'initially' had a regolith, contrary to other models in which initial regolith is required in order to allow current regolith. Because the globally destructive shock wave precedes basin formation, crater size is closer to the large size extrapolated from gravity-scaling rather than the strength-scaling that had earlier been assumed for such small bodies. This mechanism may also help explain the existence of Stickney on Phobos. Moreover, rejection of the large concavities as craters based on unfamiliar morphology would be premature, because (aside from Stickney) we have no other data on such large impact structures on such a small, irregular body. The eight candidate concavities cover an area greater than that counted for smaller craters, because they are most apparent where small craters cannot be seen: on low resolution images and at the limb on high resolution images. We estimate that there are at least two with diameter greater than 4 km per 140 sq km, which would have to be accounted for in any model that claims these are impact craters.

Greenberg, R.↗

Deep learning forecasts the spatiotemporal evolution of fluid-induced microearthquakes

Microearthquakes generated by subsurface fluid injection record the evolving stress state and permeability of reservoirs. Forecasting their spatiotemporal evolution is therefore critical for applications such as enhanced geothermal systems, carbon dioxide sequestration and other geoengineering applications. Here we propose a transformer neural network model that ingests hydraulic stimulation history and prior microearthquake observations to forecast four key quantities: cumulative microearthquake count, cumulative logarithmic seismic moment, and the 50th- and 95th-percentile extents of the microearthquake cloud. Applied to the EGS Collab Experiment 1 dataset, the model achieves R2 > 0.98 for the 1-s forecast horizon and R2 > 0.88 for the 15-s forecast horizon across all targets, and supplies uncertainty estimates through a learned standard deviation term. These accurate, uncertainty-quantified forecasts enable real-time inference of fracture propagation and permeability evolution, demonstrating the strong potential of deep-learning approaches to improve seismic-risk assessment and guide mitigation strategies in future fluid-injection operations.

Chung, Jaehong↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗

Territory and Population Attributes Affect Florida Scrub-Jay Fecundity in Fire Adapted Ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida’s Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing “strong” quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Long-term studies↗

The Dark Energy Survey: more than dark energy – an overview

This overview paper describes the legacy prospect and discovery potential of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) beyond cosmological studies, illustrating it with examples from the DES early data. DES is using a wide-field camera (DECam) on the 4 m Blanco Telescope in Chile to image 5000 sq deg of the sky in five filters (grizY). By its completion, the survey is expected to have generated a catalogue of 300 million galaxies with photometric redshifts and 100 million stars. In addition, a time-domain survey search over 27 sq deg is expected to yield a sample of thousands of Type Ia supernovae and other transients. The main goals of DES are to characterize dark energy and dark matter, and to test alternative models of gravity; these goals will be pursued by studying large-scale structure, cluster counts, weak gravitational lensing and Type Ia supernovae. However, DES also provides a rich data set which allows us to study many other aspects of astrophysics. In this paper, we focus on additional science with DES, emphasizing areas where the survey makes a difference with respect to other current surveys. The paper illustrates, using early data (from ‘Science Verification’, and from the first, second and third seasons of observations), what DES can tell us about the Solar system, the Milky Way, galaxy evolution, quasars and other topics. In addition, we show that if the cosmological model is assumed to be Λ+cold dark matter, then important astrophysics can be deduced from the primary DES probes. Highlights from DES early data include the discovery of 34 trans-Neptunian objects, 17 dwarf satellites of the Milky Way, one published z > 6 quasar (and more confirmed) and two published superluminous supernovae (and more confirmed).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spectral and Temporal Characteristics of X-Ray-Bright Stars in the Pleiades

We follow up our deep ROSAT imaging survey of the Pleiades (Stauffer et al. 1994) with an analysis of the spectral and temporal characteristics of the X-ray-bright stars in the Pleiades. Raymond & Smith (1977) one and two-temperature models have been used to fit the position-sensitive proportional counter (PSPC) pulse-height spectra of the dozen or so brightest sources associated with late-type Pleiades members. The best-fit temperatures suggest hot coronal temperatures for K, M, and rapidly rotating G stars, and cooler temperatures for F and slowly rotating G stars. In order to probe the many less X-ray-luminous stars, we have generated composite spectra by combining net counts from all Pleiades members according to spectral type and rotational velocity. Model fits to the composite spectra confirm the trend seen in the individual spectral fits. Particularly interesting is the apparent dependence of coronal temperature on L(sub x)/L(sub bol). A hardness-ratio analysis also confirms some of these trends. The PSPC data have also revealed a dozen or so strong X-ray flares with peak X-ray luminosities in excess of approx. 10(exp 30) ergs/sec. We have modeled the brightest of these flares with a simple quasi-static cooling loop model. The peak temperature and emission measure and the inferred electron density and plasma volume suggest a very large scale flaring event. The PSPC data were collected over a period of approx. 18 months, allowing us to search for source variability on timescales ranging from less than a day (in the case of flares) to more than a year between individual exposures. On approximately year-long timescales, roughly 25% of the late-type stars are variable. Since the Pleiades was also intensively monitored by the imaging instruments on the Einstein Observatory, we have examined X-ray luminosity variations on the 10 yr timescale between Einstein and ROSAT and find that up to 40% of the late-type stars are X-ray variable. Since there is only marginal evidence for increased variability on decade-long timescales, the variability observed on long and short timescales may have a common physical origin.

Gagne, Marc↗

Comparative Study on the Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Adsorption Energies for Ring and Chain Species on Metal Catalyst Surfaces

Computation of adsorption and transition state energies for a large number of surface intermediates for numerous active site models pose significant computational overhead in computational screening of catalysts. Machine learning (ML) techniques can be used to predict part of these energies. To predict the energies, ML models need to be fed appropriate metal and species descriptors. For complex surface chemistries, the structures of the intermediate species can vary greatly. In this paper, working with the hydrodeoxygenation of succinic acid on six different metal surfaces, we have studied the effect of linear and non-linear ML models used along with pen-and-paper based species descriptors and two categories of metal descriptors on two different categories of intermediate species: chain and ring. More specifically, our computations include the prediction of chain species when trained on only chain species and also when trained on both chain and ring species. Similar computations were performed for predictions of ring species. In each case, results of linear ML models were compared with kernel based non-linear models. Our results indicate that ring species data does not improve the prediction of chain species. Similarly, chain species data does not improve the prediction of ring species. The use of non-linear ML models, however, did help to minimize the prediction errors compared to the linear models. Furthermore, the study also shows that electronic or adsorption energy based metal descriptors along with bond count based species fingerprints can achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 0.2 eV for complex chain molecules when used with an appropriate machine learning model.

Adsorption↗