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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A parameterization of sub-grid topographical effects on solar radiation in the E3SM Land Model (version 1.0): implementation and evaluation over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. Topography exerts significant influences on the incoming solar radiation at the land surface. A few stand-alone regional and global atmospheric models have included parameterizations for sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. However, nearly all Earth system models (ESMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) use a plane-parallel (PP) radiative transfer scheme that assumes that the terrain is flat. In this study, we incorporated a well-validated sub-grid topographic (TOP) parameterization in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) version 1.0 to quantify the effects of sub-grid topography on solar radiation flux, including the shadow effects and multi-scattering between adjacent terrain. We studied the role of sub-grid topography by performing ELM simulations with the PP and TOP schemes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Additional ELM simulations were performed at multiple spatial resolutions to investigate the role of spatial scale on sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to compare with the ELM simulations. The results show that topography has non-negligible effects on surface energy budget, snow cover, snow depth, and surface temperature over the TP. The absolute differences in surface energy fluxes for net solar radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux between TOP and PP exceed 20, 10, and 5 W m−2, respectively. The differences in land surface albedo, snow cover fraction, snow depth, and surface temperature between TOP and PP exceed 0.1, 0.1, 10 cm, and 1 K, respectively. The magnitude of the sub-grid topographic effects is dependent on seasons and elevations and is also sensitive to the spatial scales. Although the sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation are larger with more spatial details at finer spatial scales, they cannot be simply neglected at coarse spatial scales. When compared to MODIS data, incorporating the sub-grid topographic effects overall reduces the biases of ELM in simulating surface energy balance, snow cover, and surface temperature, especially in the high-elevation and snow-covered regions over the TP. The inclusion of sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation parameterization in ELM will contribute to advancing our understanding of the role of the surface topography on terrestrial processes over complex terrain.

Hao, Dalei (ORCID:0000000334979774)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Parameterization of Sub-grid Topographical Effects on Solar Radiation in the E3SM Land Model (Version 1.0): Implementation and Evaluation Over the Tibetan Plateau

Topography exerts significant influences on the incoming solar radiation at the land surface. A few stand-alone regional and global atmospheric models have included parameterizations for sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. However, nearly all Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) use a plane-parallel (PP) radiative transfer scheme that assumes the terrain is flat. In this study, we incorporated a well-validated sub-grid topographic (TOP) parameterization in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) version 1.0 to quantify the effects of sub-grid topography on solar radiation flux, including the shadow effects and multi-scattering between adjacent terrain. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to evaluate the performance of ELM. We studied the role of sub-grid topography by performing ELM simulations with the PP and TOP schemes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Additional ELM simulations were performed at multiple spatial resolutions to investigate the role of spatial scale on sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. When compared to MODIS data, incorporating the sub-grid topographic effects overall reduces the biases of ELM in simulating surface energy balance, snow cover and surface temperature especially in the high-elevation and snow-cover regions over the TP. Topography has non-negligible effects on surface energy budget, snow cover, and surface temperature over the TP. The absolute differences in surface energy fluxes for net solar radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux between TOP and PP exceed 20 W/m 2 , 10 W/m 2 , and 5 W/m 2 , respectively. The differences in land surface albedo, snow cover fraction, and surface temperature between TOP and PP exceed 0.1, 20%, and 1K, respectively. The magnitude of the sub-grid topographic effects is dependent on seasons and elevations, and is also sensitive to the spatial scales. Although the sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation are more significant with more spatial details at finer spatial scales, they cannot be simply neglected at coarse spatial scales. The inclusion of sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation parameterization in ELM will contribute to advancing our understanding of the role of the surface topography on terrestrial processes over complex terrain.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global Corn Heat Stress: Mean and SD of Degree Days Above 29°C based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Climate Projections

Description This global dataset provides the estimated mean and standard deviation (SD) of corn heat stress (degree days above 29°C) for a set of climate models in NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 at 0.25-degree resolution. The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The current dataset includes: Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 The mean and SD are calculated over 1985-2014 for the historical period and over 2035-2064 for future projections. A full description of methods, including growing season, daily temperature distribution, and statistical coefficients, can be found in Haqiqi (2024). The source climate data are obtained from https://ds.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds2/catalog/catalog.html and are described in Thrasher et al (2022). The codes used to create this dataset are available at https://github.com/ihaqiqi/dd29c_nex_cmip6. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics under Cooperative Agreement DE-SC0022141. The data processing, computation, and storage were completed on Purdue Anvil supercomputer and cyberinfrastructure supported by the National Science Foundation HDR award # 2118329: "NSF Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment (I-GUIDE)". References Haqiqi. I. (2024). Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply. Environmental Research: Food Systems. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601X/ad7d12 Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A., Melton, F., Lee, T., & Nemani, R. (2022). NASA global daily downscaled projections, CMIP6. Scientific Data, 9(1), 262. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hydromechanical modelling with application in sealing for underground waste deposition

Hydro-mechanical models appear in simulation of many environmental problems related to construction of engineering barriers for contaminant spreading. The presented work aims in modelling bentonite-sand barriers, which can be used for nuclear waste isolation and similar problems. Particularly, we use hydro-mechanical model coupling unsaturated flow and (nonlinear) elasticity, implement such model in COMSOL software and show application in simulation of an infiltration test (2D axisymmetric model) and the SEALEX Water test WT1 experiment (3D model). Finally, we discuss the needs and possibilities of parallel high performance computing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

Dynamics of supersymmetric chameleons

We investigate the cosmological dynamics of a class of supersymmetric chameleon models coupled to cold dark matter fermions. The model includes a cosmological constant in the form of a Fayet-Illiopoulos term, which emerges at late times due to the coupling of the chameleon to two charged scalars. Supergravity corrections ensure that the supersymmetric chameleons are efficiently screened in all astrophysical objects of interest, however this does not preclude the enhancement of gravity on linear cosmological scales. We solve the modified equations for the growth of cold dark matter density perturbations in closed form in the matter era. Using this, we go on to derive the modified linear power spectrum which is characterised by two scales, the horizon size at matter-radiation equality and at the redshift when the chameleon reaches the minimum of its effective potential. We analyse the deviations from the ΛCDM predictions in the linear regime. We find that there is generically a region in the model's parameter space where the model's background cosmology coincides with that of the ΛCDM model. Furthermore, we find that characteristic deviations from ΛCDM are present on the matter power spectrum providing a clear signature of supersymmetric chameleons.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dynamics of simulated Atlantic upwelling annual cycle in CMIP5 models

As one of the prominent climatic component of tropical climate system, the annual cycle of the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue region has been a subject of significant research. In this work, we examine the fidelity of the key part of the annual cycles, namely, the upwelling annual cycles, from the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Utilizing the simple framework we have recently developed based on the Zebiak–Cane (ZC) ocean model, we first tested the validity of the simple framework of upwelling as a combination of the local wind–driven Ekman upwelling and nonlocal wind–driven wave upwelling. It is demonstrated that the theoretically reconstructed upwelling annual cycles to large extent are in good agreement with the simulations in these coupled climatic models. Comparing with observations, we show that the semiannual component of the upwelling is systematically too strong. This significant bias is attributable to the dynamic amplification to the wind–driven wave upwelling originated from a less significant bias in the semiannual harmonic component in the central equatorial wind field. The latter is dynamically amplified in the wind–driven wave upwelling owing to its relatively fast time scale. Furthermore, the realistic simulations of equatorial annual cycles may sensitively depend on good simulations of the semiannual harmonic components in equatorial wind fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

International Collaboration on Spent Fuel Disposition in Crystalline Media: FY18 Progress Report

Active participation in international R&D is crucial for achieving the Spent Fuel Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) long-term goals of conducting "experiments to fill data needs and confirm advanced modeling approaches" and of having a "robust modeling and experimental basis for evaluation of multiple disposal system options" (by 2020). DOE's Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has developed a strategic plan to advance cooperation with international partners. The international collaboration on the evaluation of crystalline disposal media at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in FY18 focused on the collaboration through the Development of Coupled Models and their Validation against Experiments (DECOVALEX- 2019) project. The DECOVALEX project is an international research and model comparison collaboration, initiated in 1992, for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanicalchemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. SNL has been participating in three tasks of the DECOVALEX project: Task A. Modeling gas injection experiments (ENGINEER), Task C. Modeling groundwater recovery experiment in tunnel (GREET), and Task F. Fluid inclusion and movement in the tight rock (FINITO). FY18 work focused on Task C and preparing the interim reports for the three tasks SNL has been imvolved. The major accomplishments are summarized

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

International Collaboration on Spent Fuel Disposition in Crystalline Media: FY17 Progress Report

Active participation in international R&D is crucial for achieving the Spent Fuel Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) long-term goals of conducting “experiments to fill data needs and confirm advanced modeling approaches” and of having a “robust modeling and experimental basis for evaluation of multiple disposal system options” (by 2020). DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has developed a strategic plan to advance cooperation with international partners. The international collaboration on the evaluation of crystalline disposal media at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in FY17 focused on the collaboration through the Development of Coupled Models and their Validation against Experiments (DECOVALEX-2019) project. The DECOVALEX project is an international research and model comparison collaboration, initiated in 1992, for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. SNL has been participating in three tasks of the DECOVALEX project: Task A. Modeling gas injection experiments (ENGINEER), Task C. Modeling groundwater recovery experiment in tunnel (GREET), and Task F. Fluid inclusion and movement in the tight rock (FINITO).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Dual Regime Reactive Transport Model for Simulation of High Level Waste Tank Closure Scenarios - 13375

A numerical simulation framework is presented in this paper for estimating evolution of pH and release of major species from grout within high-level waste tanks after closure. This model was developed as part of the Cementitious Barriers Partnership. The reactive transport model consists of two parts - (1) transport of species, and (2) chemical reactions. The closure grout can be assumed to have varying extents of cracking and composition for performance assessment purposes. The partially or completely degraded grouted tank is idealized as a dual regime system comprising of a mobile region having solid materials with cracks and macro-pores, and an immobile/stagnant region having solid matrix with micropores. The transport profiles of the species are calculated by incorporating advection of species through the mobile region, diffusion of species through the immobile/stagnant region, and exchange of species between the mobile and immobile regions. A geochemical speciation code in conjunction with the pH dependent test data for a grout material is used to obtain a mineral set that best describes the trends in the test data of the major species. The dual regime reactive transport model predictions are compared with the release data from an up-flow column percolation test. The coupled model is then used to assess effects of crack state of the structure, rate and composition of the infiltrating water on the pH evolution at the grout-waste interface. The coupled reactive transport model developed in this work can be used as part of the performance assessment process for evaluating potential risks from leaching of a cracked tank containing elements of human health and environmental concern. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
DOE OSTI2014

The strength of the tropical inversion and its response to climate change in 18 CMIP5 models

In this work, we examine the tropical inversion strength, measured by the estimated inversion strength (EIS), and its response to climate change in 18 models associated with phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). While CMIP5 models generally capture the geographic distribution of observed EIS, they systematically underestimate it off the west coasts of continents, due to a warm bias in sea surface temperature. The negative EIS bias may contribute to the low bias in tropical low-cloud cover in the same models. Idealized perturbation experiments reveal that anthropogenic forcing leads directly to EIS increases, independent of “temperature-mediated” EIS increases associated with long-term oceanic warming. This fast EIS response to anthropogenic forcing is strongly impacted by nearly instantaneous continental warming. The temperature-mediated EIS change has contributions from both uniform and non-uniform oceanic warming. The substantial EIS increases in uniform oceanic warming simulations are due to warming with height exceeding the moist adiabatic lapse rate in tropical warm pools. EIS also increases in fully-coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations where CO 2 concentration is instantaneously quadrupled, due to both fast and temperature-mediated changes. The temperature-mediated EIS change varies with tropical warming in a nonlinear fashion: The EIS change per degree tropical warming is much larger in the early stage of the simulations than in the late stage, due to delayed warming in the eastern parts of the subtropical oceans. Given the importance of EIS in regulating tropical low-cloud cover, this suggests that the tropical low-cloud feedback may also be nonlinear.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

agricultural climate impacts↗
DOE OSTI2016

Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations

The increase in cloud optical depth with warming at middle and high latitudes is a robust cloud feedback response found across all climate models. This study builds on results that suggest the optical depth response to temperature is timescale invariant for low-level clouds. The timescale invariance allows one to use satellite observations to constrain the models' optical depth feedbacks. Three passive-sensor satellite retrievals are compared against simulations from eight models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study confirms that the low-cloud optical depth response is timescale invariant in the AMIP simulations, generally at latitudes higher than 40°. Compared to satellite estimates, most models overestimate the increase in optical depth with warming at the monthly and interannual timescales. Many models also do not capture the increase in optical depth with estimated inversion strength that is found in all three satellite observations and in previous studies. The discrepancy between models and satellites exists in both hemispheres and in most months of the year. A simple replacement of the models' optical depth sensitivities with the satellites' sensitivities reduces the negative shortwave cloud feedback by at least 50% in the 40°–70°S latitude band and by at least 65% in the 40°–70°N latitude band. Furthermore, based on this analysis of satellite observations, we conclude that the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes is likely too negative in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Experimental evaluation and thermodynamic system modeling of thermoelectric heat pump clothes dryer

Electric clothes dryers consume about 6% of US residential electricity consumption. Using a solid-state technology without refrigerant, thermoelectric (TE) heat pump dryers have the potential to be more efficient than units based on electric resistance and less expensive than units based on vapor compression. This study presents a steady state TE dryer model, and validates the model against results from an experimental prototype. The system model is composed of a TE heat pump element model coupled with a psychrometric dryer sub-model. Experimental results had energy factors (EFs) of up to 2.95 kg of dry cloth per kWh (6.51 lb c /kWh), with a dry time of 159 min. A faster dry time of 96 min was also achieved at an EF of 2.54 kg c /kWh (5.60 lb c /kWh). The model was able to replicate the experimental results within 5% of EF and 5% of dry time values. Finally, the results are used to identify important parameters that affect dryer performance, such as relative humidity of air leaving the drum.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Dissolved Nutrient Retention Dynamics in River Networks: A Modeling Investigation of Transient Flow and Scale Effects

In this paper, we use a dynamic network flow model, coupled with a transient storage zone biogeochemical model, to simulate dissolved nutrient removal processes at the channel network scale. We have explored several scenarios in respect of the combination of rainfall variability, and the biological and geomorphic characteristics of the catchment, to understand the dominant controls on removal and delivery of dissolved nutrients (e.g., nitrate). These model-based theoretical analyses suggested that while nutrient removal efficiency is lower during flood events compared to during baseflow periods, flood events contribute significantly to bulk nutrient removal, whereas bulk removal during baseflow periods is less. This is due to the fact that nutrient supply is larger during flood events; this trend is even stronger in large rivers. However, the efficiency of removal during both periods decreases in larger rivers, however, due to (i) increasing flow velocities and thus decreasing residence time, and (ii) increasing flow depth, and thus decreasing nutrient uptake rates. Besides nutrient removal processes can be divided into two parts: in the main channel and in the hyporheic transient storage zone. When assessing their relative contributions the size of the transient storage zone is a dominant control, followed by uptake rates in the main channel and in the transient storage zone. Increasing size of the transient storage zone with downstream distance affects the relative contributions to nutrient removal of the water column and the transient storage zone, which also impacts the way nutrient removal rates scale with increasing size of rivers. Intra-annual hydrologic variability has a significant impact on removal rates at all scales: the more variable the streamflow is, compared to mean discharge, the less nutrient is removed in the channel network. A scale-independent first order uptake coefficient, ke, estimated from model simulations, is highly dependent on the relative size of the transient storage zone and how it changes in the downstream direction, as well as the nature of hydrologic variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific

Abstract We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 different models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model‐analog forecast skill has been demonstrated to match or even exceed traditional assimilation‐initialized forecast skill in a given model. Models with the most realistic mean states and interannual variability for SST, precipitation, and 10‐m zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific also generate the most skillful precipitation forecasts in the central equatorial Pacific and the best SST forecasts at 6‐month or longer leads. These results show direct links between model climatological biases and seasonal forecast errors, demonstrating that model‐analog hindcast skill—that is, how well a model can capture the observed evolution of tropical Pacific anomalies—is an informative El Niño/Southern Oscillation metric for climate simulations.

Ding, Hui↗