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Prediction of High-Latitude Ionospheric Electrodynamics Using the Machine Learning Based Auroral Ionospheric Electrodynamics Model

We introduce a new framework for Machine-Learning (ML) based Auroral Ionosphere Model (ML-AIM). ML-AIM solves a current continuity equation by utilizing the ML model of Field Aligned Currents (FACs) of Kunduri et al., 2020 (https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA027908), the FAC-derived aurora conductance model of Robinson et al., 2020 (https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028008), and the solar irradiance conductance model of Moen & Brekke (1993). The ML-AIM inputs are 60min time histories of solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic fields (IMF), and geomagnetic indices, and its outputs are ionospheric electric potential, electric fields, Pederson/Hall currents, and Joule Heating. We conduct two ML-AIM simulations for a weak geomagnetic activity on 14 May 2013 and a geomagnetic storm on 7-8 September 2017. ML-AIM produces reasonable ionospheric potential patterns such as two cell convection patterns and the enhancement of electric potentials during active times. The cross polar cap potential drop from ML-AIM is also comparable to the ones from the Weimer 2005 model, Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN), and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F17 observations. ML-AIM is unique in a sense that it predicts ionospheric responses to the time-varying solar wind and geomagnetic conditions, while other traditional empirical model like Weimer 2005 is designed to provide static ionospheric conditions under steady solar wind/IMF conditions. In future, ML-AIM will include ML-based models of aurora precipitation and ionospheric conductance, improving its performance during active times.

H. K. Connor↗

Influence of the interplanetary magnetic field orientation on polar cap ion trajectories - Energy gain and drift effects

The influence of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation on the transport of low-energy ions injected from the ionosphere is investigated using three-dimensional particle codes. It is shown that, unlike the auroral zone outflow, the ions originating from the polar cap region exhibit drastically different drift paths during southward and northward IMF. During southward IMF orientation, a 'two-cell' convection pattern prevails in the ionosphere, and three-dimensional simulations of ion trajectories indicate a preferential trapping of the light ions H(+) in the central plasma sheet, due to the wide azimuthal dispersion of the heavy ions, O(+). In contrast, for northward IMF orientation, the 'four-cell' potential distribution predicted in the ionosphere imposes a temporary ion drift toward higher L shells in the central polar cap. In this case, while the light ions can escape into the magnetotail, the heavy ions can remain trapped, featuring more intense acceleration (from a few electron volts up to the keV range) followed by precipitation at high invariant latitudes, as a consequence of their further travel into the tail.

Delcourt, D. C.↗

Crystallography of the NiHfSi Phase in a NiAl (0.5 Hf) Single-Crystal Alloy

Small additions of Hf to conventionally processed NiAl single crystals result in the precipitation of a high density of cuboidal G-phase along with a newly identified silicide phase. Both of these phases form in the presence of Si which is not an intentional alloying addition but is a contaminant resulting from contact with the ceramic shell molds during directional solidification of the single-crystal ingots. The morphology, crystal structure and Orientation Relationship (OR) of the silicide phase in a NiAl (0.5 at.%Hf) single-crystal alloy have been determined using transmission electron microscopy, electron microdiffraction and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Qualitative elemental analysis and indexing of the electron microdiffraction patterns from the new phase indicate that it is an orthorhombic NiHfSi phase with unit cell parameters, a = 0.639 nm, b = 0.389 nm and c = 0.72 nm, and space group Pnma. The NiHfSi phase forms as thin rectangular plates on NiAl/111/ planes with an OR that is given by NiHfSi(100))(parallel) NiAl(111) and NiHfSi zone axes(010) (parallel) NiAl zone axes (101). Twelve variants of the NiHfSi phase were observed in the alloy and the number of variants and rectangular morphology of NiHfSi plates are consistent with symmetry requirements. Quenching experiments indicate that nucleation of the NiHfSi phase in NiAI(Hf) alloys is aided by the formation of NiAl group of zone axes (111) vacancy loops that form on the NiAl /111/ planes.

Garg, A.↗

A case study of analyzed versus satellite-derived water vapor distributions over the Atlantic Ocean

The paper compares two estimates (one derived from the ECMF analysis and the other from the DMSP Special Sensor Microwave/Imager, SSM/I) of precipitable water content (PWC) over the North Atlantic Ocean during a period of intense cyclone and frontal activity between September 20 and 29, 1987, when two tropical cyclones, Dennis and Emily, moved into midlatitudes and took on extratropical characteristics. The values from the ECMWF analyses consisted of vertical integrals of specific humidity from 1000-300 mb, on a 2.5-deg latitude/longitude grid. The PWC values from the SSM/I were computed using the technique described by Wentz (1983) and were based on retrievals at increments of 25 km. The two distributions of PWC showed very good agreement with each other and with the synoptic patterns depicted.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

Nucleation and Growth According to Lysozyme

How does one take a molecule, strongly asymmetric in both shape and charge distribution, and assemble it into a crystal? We propose a model for the nucleation and crystal growth process for tetragonal lysozyme that may be very germane to other monomeric proteins. The first species formed is postulated to be a dimer. Through repeating associations involving the same intermolecular interactions this becomes the 4(sub 3) helix, that in turn serves as the basic unit for nucleation and crystal growth. High salt attenuates surface charges while promoting hydrophobic interactions. Symmetry facilitates helix self-association. Assembly stability is enhanced when a four helix structure is obtained, with each bound to two neighbors. Only two unique interactions are required. The first are those for helix formation, where the dominant interaction is the intermolecular bridging anion. The second is the anti-parallel side-by-side helix-helix interaction, guided by alternating pairs of symmetry related salt bridges along each side. At this stage all eight unique positions of the P4(sub 3)2(sub 1)2(sub 1) unit cell are filled. From the above, the process is one of a) attenuating the most strongly interacting groups, such that b) the molecules begin to self-associate in defined patterns, so that c) symmetry is obtained, which d) propagates as a growing crystal. Simple and conceptually obvious in hindsight, this tells much about what we are empirically doing when we crystallize macromolecules. By adjusting the solution parameters we are empirically balancing the intermolecular interactions, preferentially attenuating the dominant strong (for lysozyme the charged groups) while strengthening the lesser strong (hydrophobic) interactions. Lysozyme is atypical in the breadth of its crystallization conditions; many proteins only crystallize under narrowly defined conditions, pointing to the criticality of the empirical balancing process. Lack of a singularly defined association pathway leads to formation of multiple species, i.e., amorphous precipitation. Weak interactions, such as hydrogen bonds, are promiscuous, serving to strengthen rather than define specific interactions. Participation in an interaction sequesters that surface from subsequent interactions, and we expect the strongest bonds to form first. When two molecules self associate the resulting species will have an axis of symmetry. Subsequent interactions between two associated species having equivalent interactions will also have symmetry. Only a few unique sets of interactions are required to give any of the commonly found space groups for monomeric proteins. This model and what it suggests will be discussed.

Pusey, Marc L.↗

Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle as Observed by TRMM

Using infrared satellite data, previous work has shown a consistent diurnal cycle in the pattern of cold cloud tops around mature tropical cyclones. In particular, an increase in the coverage by cold cloud tops often occurs in the inner core of the storm around the time of sunset and subsequently propagates outward to several hundred kilometers over the course of the following day. This consistent cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones and the forecasting of such changes. Because infrared satellite measurements are primarily sensitive to cloud top, the goal of this study is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to examine and better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a larger depth of the storm's clouds. The National Hurricane Center's best track dataset was used to extract all PR and TMI pixels within 1000 km of each tropical cyclone that occurred in the Atlantic basin between 1998-2011. Then the data was composited according to radius (100-km bins from 0-1000 km) and local standard time (LST; 3-hr bins). Specifically, PR composites involved finding the percentage of pixels with reflectivity greater than or equal to 20 dBZ at various heights (i.e., 2-14 km in increments of 2 km) as a function of radius and time. The 37- and 85- GHz TMI channels are especially sensitive to scattering by precipitation-sized ice in the mid to upper portions of clouds. Hence, the percentage of 37- and 85-GHz polarization corrected temperatures less than various thresholds were calculated using data from all storms as a function of radius and time. For 37 GHz, thresholds of 260 K, 265 K, 270 K, and 275 K were used, and for 85 GHz, thresholds of 200-270 K in increments of 10 K were utilized. Note that convection forced by the interactions of a tropical cyclone with land (e.g., due to frictional convergence) may disrupt the natural convective cycle of a cyclone. Hence, only data pertaining to storms whose centers were greater than 300 km from land were included in the composites. Early results suggest the presence of a diurnal cycle in the PR composites of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from a height of 2-12 km from approximately 0-400 km radius, but the cycle is most apparent above 6 km. At a height of 8 km, there is a peak (minimum) in the percentage of PR pixels greater than or equal to 20 dBZ near 0 (21) LST in the inner core with some indication that this signal propagates outward with time. In contrast, the 37- and 85-GHz composites show little indication of a diurnal cycle at any radii, regardless of the threshold used. Ongoing work with this project will involve sub-setting the composites according to storm intensity to see if the diurnal cycle varies with storm strength. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear often leads to asymmetries in tropical cyclone convection and may disrupt the cyclone's natural diurnal cycle. Therefore, wind shear thresholds will be applied to the composites to determine if the diurnal cycle becomes more apparent in a low shear environment. Finally, other work to be completed will involve developing composites for other tropical cyclone basins, including the East Pacific, Northwest Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean.

tropical cyclones↗

NPCC4: New York City Climate Risk Information 2022—Observations and Projections

New York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel’s mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up-to-date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the “hot model” problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections-of-record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.

NPCC4↗

Effect of high-latitude ionospheric convection on Sun-aligned polar caps

A coupled magnetospheric-ionospheric (M-I) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model has been used to simulate the formation of Sun-aligned polar cap arcs for a variety of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) dependent polar cap convection fields. The formation process involves launching an Alfven shear wave from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere where the ionospheric conductance can react self-consistently to changes in the upward currents. We assume that the initial Alfven shear wave is the result of solar wind-magnetosphere interactions. The simulations show how the E region density is affected by the changes in the electron precipitation that are associated with the upward currents. These changes in conductance lead to both a modified Alfven wave reflection at the ionosphere and the generation of secondary Alfven waves in the ionosphere. The ensuing bouncing of the Alfven waves between the ionosphere and magnetosphere is followed until an asymptotic solution is obtained. At the magnetosphere the Alfven waves reflect at a fixed boundary. The coupled M-I Sun-aligned polar cap arc model of Zhu et al.(1993a) is used to carry out the simulations. This study focuses on the dependence of the polar cap arc formation on the background (global) convection pattern. Since the polar cap arcs occur for northward and strong B(sub y) IMF conditions, a variety of background convection patterns can exist when the arcs are present. The study shows that polar cap arcs can be formed for all these convection patterns; however, the arc features are dramatically different for the different patterns. For weak sunward convection a relatively confined single pair of current sheets is associated with the imposed Alfven shear wave structure. However, when the electric field exceeds a threshold, the arc structure intensifies, and the conductance increases as does the local Joule heating rate. These increases are faster than a linear dependence on the background electric field strength. Furthermore, above the threshold, the single current sheet pair splits into multiple current sheet pairs. For the fixed initial ionospheric and magnetospheric conditions used in this study, the separation distance between the current pairs was found to be almost independent of the background electric field strength. For either three-cell or distorted two-cell background convection patterns the arc formation favored the positive B(sub y) case in the northern hemisphere.

Sojka, J. J.↗

Evaluation of atmospheric attenuation from SMMR brightness temperature for the Seasat satellite scatterometer

The effect of attenuation in precipitation regions of the sea, which must be considered in order to measure the radar backscatter from the ocean with sufficient accuracy to allow determination of the wind vector, can be ascertained from a knowledge of the brightness temperature observed by a microwave radiometer such as the Seasat multifrequency scanning radiometer. Two algorithms relating radiometric measurements and attenuation, and thereby correcting measured scattering coefficient values, were compared with wind vectors reported by surface observers and those determined by the Seasat scatterometer measurements with and without correction for atmospheric attenuation. Although the attenuation correction yields some improvements, it is constrained by both radiometer footprint differences and different scan patterns.

Moore, R. K.↗

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

Velocities of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica, from ERS-1 SAR images

Average velocities of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers (West Antarctica) were measured for the time periods between 1992 and 1994 by tracking ice-surface patterns. Velocities of the central flow of the Pine Island glacier range from 1.5 km/yr above the grounding line (separating the grounded from the floating parts of a glacier) to 2.8 km/yr near the terminus; velocities of the central Thwaites glacier range from 2.2 km/yr above the grounding line to 3.4 km/yr at the limit of measurements on the tongue. Both glaciers show an increase in velocity of about 1 km/yr where they cross their grounding lines. The velocities derived from ERS-1 images are higher than those previously derived from Landsat images, perhaps reflecting acceleration of the glaciers. Both glaciers are exceptionally fast. The high velocities may be due to high precipitation rates over West Antarctica and the lack of a major buttressing ice shelf.

Lucchita, Baerbel K.↗

Brine Pockets in the Icy Shell on Europa: Distribution, Chemistry, and Habitability

On Earth, sea ice is rich in brine, salt, and gas inclusions that form through capturing of seawater during ice formation. Cooling of the ice over time leads to sequential freezing of captured sea-water, precipitation of salts, exsolution of gases, and formation of brine channels and pockets. Distribution and composition of brines in sea ice depend on the rate of ice formation, vertical temperature gradient, and the age of the ice. With aging, the abundance of brine pockets decreases through downward migration. De- spite low temperatures and elevated salinities, brines in sea ice provide a habitat for photosynthetic and chemosynthetic organisms. On Europa, brine pockets and channels could exist in the icy shell that may be from a few km to a few tens of km thick and is probably underlain by a water ocean. If the icy shell is relatively thick, convection could develop, affecting the temperature pattern in the ice. To predict the distribution and chemistry of brine pockets in the icy shell we have combined numerical models of the temperature distribution within a convecting shell, a model for oceanic chemistry, and a model for freezing of Europan oceanic water. Possible effects of brine and gas inclusions on ice rheology and tectonics are discussed.

Zolotov, M. Yu↗

The Magnetosphere Ionosphere Electron Precipitation Dynamics and Their Geospace Consequences During the 17 March 2013 Storm

During geomagnetic storms and substorms, the magnetosphere and ionosphere are strongly coupled by precipitating magnetospheric electrons from the Earth's plasma sheet and driven by both magnetospheric and ionospheric processes. Magnetospheric wave activity initiates electron precipitation, and the ionosphere and upper atmosphere further facilitate this process by enhancing the value of precipitated energy uxes via connection of two magnetically conjugate regions and multiple atmospheric reections. This paper focuses on the resulting electron energy uxes and afliated heightintegrated Pedersen and Hall conductances in the auroral regions produced by multiple atmospheric reections during the 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm and their effects on the inner magnetospheric electric eld and ring current. Our study is based on the magnetically and electrically selfconsistent Rice ConvectionModelEquilibrium of the inner magnetosphere with SuperThermal Electron Transport modied electron energy uxes that take into account the electron energy interplay between the two magnetically conjugate ionospheres. SuperThermal Electron Transportmodied energy ux in the Rice ConvectionModelEquilibrium leads to a signicant difference in the global conductance pattern, ionospheric electric eld formation, Birkeland current structure, ring current energization and its energy content, subauroral polarization drifts intensications and their spatial locations, interchange instability redistribution, and overall energy interplay on the global scale.

Khazanov, George V.↗

Nutritional Status Assessment (SMO 016E)

The Nutritional Status Assessment Supplemental Medical Objective was initiated to expand nominal clinical nutrition testing of ISS astronauts, and to gain a better understanding of the time course of changes in nutritional status during flight. The primary activity of this effort was collecting blood and urine samples during flight for analysis after return to Earth. Samples were subjected to a battery of tests. The resulting data provide a comprehensive survey of how nutritional status and related systems are affected by 4-6 months of space flight. Analysis of these data has yielded many findings to date, including: Vision. Documented evidence that biochemical markers involved in one-carbon metabolism were altered in crewmembers who experienced vision-related issues during and after flight (1). Iron, Oxidative Stress, and Bone. In-flight data document a clear association of increased iron stores, markers of oxidative damage to DNA, and bone loss (2). Exercise. Documented that well-nourished crewmembers performing heavy resistance exercise returned from ISS with bone mineral densities unchanged from preflight (3). Furthermore, the response of bone to space flight and exercise countermeasures was the same in men and women (4). Body Mass. Crewmembers lose 2-5% of their body mass in the first month of flight, and maintain the lower body mass during flight (5). Additionally, the two devices to measure body mass on orbit, the SLAMMD and BMMD, provide similar results (5). Cytokines. Findings indicated that a pattern of persistent physiological adaptations occurs during space flight that includes shifts in immune and hormonal regulation (6). Fish/Bone. Documented a relationship between fish intake and bone loss in astronauts (that is, those who ate more fish lost less bone) (7). Vitamin K. Documented that in generally well-fed and otherwise healthy individuals, vitamin K status and bone vitamin K-dependent proteins are unaffected by space flight (and bed rest) (8). Testosterone. Documented that blood concentrations of testosterone were unchanged during flight, but a transient decline occurred after landing (9). Calcium. Nutrition SMO data contributed to the ISS Program by helping understand how and why the Urine Processor Assembly clogged with calcium sulfate precipitate (10). Sample Processing. Ground-based analytical testing results have also been published (11).

Smith, S. M.↗

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1∕8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

extreme climate index↗