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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35

Hybrid Propulsion In-Situ Resource Utilization Test Facility Results for Performance Characterization

Hybrid propulsion presents a promising alternative to conventional systems for in-space propulsion applications using In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP). A hybrid propulsion test facility has been built at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with the capability of evaluating ISPP oxidizers (gaseous mixtures of O2 and CO2) and modifying fuel type and chamber geometry. This work is the result of a continuing e ort at JPL to characterize the burn characteristics and performance of different propellant combinations and motor configurations in order to re ne and support preliminary designs. Twelve tests using gaseous oxygen and two paraffin based fuels (Black Paraffin and SP1X) from the 2015 campaign are presented. Different reduction techniques are compared in an e ort to determine the uncertainty associated with deriving a regression rate law and evaluating c* efficiency with the collected data.Hybrid motors are mechanically and chemically simple propulsion systems that have the potential forlong-term storability with low gross mass. The oxidizer (such as gaseous O2) can be produced in-situ,signicantly reducing the landed mass. The solid, inert fuel is stored in the combustion chamber in its most dense state, further reducing the total structural mass and volume. Considerable eorts have been focusedon ISPP for Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) and human exploration of Mars.At optimum oxidizer to fuel ratio (O/F), about 70% of the total propellant mass could be produced in-situ.Paran based fuels exhibit a fast regression rate behavior due to the formation of a thin liquid layer on thefuel surface.1 A high burn rate is necessary in order to reach a medium to high thrust range. In order toachieve an O/F ratio close to optimum performance (between 2.1 and 2.7 for the O2/Paran combination),the fuel mass ow needs to be suciently large compared to the oxidizer ow. The slow regression rateof classical hybrid rocket fuels leads to long fuel grain designs or complicated multi-port structures. Singleport, high regression rate fuels have the potential to reduce residual propellant mass and have a grainlength to diameter ratio (L/D) more favorable for packaging. However, hybrid motors remain at a fairly lowTechnology Readiness Level (TRL), and solutions to accurately measure and increase performance are stilllacking, especially for small-scale motors that are constrained to tight packaging.A total of 12 hotres were performed and analyzed in this campaign. All of these tests were conductedat pressures above the critical pressure of paran wax, approximately 6.7 bar (97 psi).2 Three dierentmotor congurations were explored while conserving a single cylindrical port fuel grain. Additionally, sincethrottling is a crucial advantage of hybrid rocket propulsion systems, low oxidizer mass ows (60 - 100 g/s)and uxes (5 - 30 g/cm2/s) were investigated to determine the performance impact in this regime.

Mechentel, F. S.↗

A Physical Model for a Slim Convective Dusty Disk in AGN

An accretion disk in an Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) harbors and shields dust from external illumination. Our model shows that at the mid-plane of the disk around a MBH = 107M black hole, dust can exist at 0:1pc from the black hole, compared to 0.5pc outside of the disk where such self-shielding is constrained. We construct a physical model of a disk region approximately located between the radius of dust sublimation at the disk mid-plane and the radius at which dust sublimes at the disk surface. Our main conclusion is that for a wide range of model parameters such as local accretion rate and/or opacity, the accretion disk’s own radiation pressure on dust significantly influences its vertical structure. In this region convection plays important role in the vertical transport of energy. When the local accretion rate exceeds 2:5M yr the 10􀀀2pc-scale disk is super-critical with respect to dust opacity. Such a disk puffs up and transforms from geometrically thin to slim. Our model fits into the narrative of a "failed wind" scenario of Czerny & Hryniewicz (2011) and the "compact torus" model of Baskin & Laor (2018), incorporating them as variations of the radiative dusty disk model.

A Dorodnitsyn↗

The Utilization Profiles of the CCSDS Unified Space Link Protocol (USLP)

The purpose of this paper is to identify the utilization profiles for interfacing the Data Protocol Sublayer using the Unified Space Link Protocols (USLP) (reference 1) with the space link coding procedures as specified in the CCSDS Coding & Synchronization Blue Books (references 2 through 5), used in both telecommand and telemetry applications. This paper describes how the USLP Protocol utilizes the coding and synchronization sublayer to support: a. Direct to Earth (DTE) telemetry links for engineering and science data b. Direct to Earth (DTE) telemetry links for very high rate science data c. Direct from Earth (DFE) command, sequencing and flight software loads d. Space to Space Links (Proximity) utilized by orbiters for data exchange to/from surface bound assets. The CCSDS has divided the functions of the Data Link Layer into two sublayers: the Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) and the Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL). The Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) interfaces to the users, accepting the data that is to be transported, on the sending side of the link, and delivering that data on the receiving end. The Transfer Frame is the data unit that is transferred across the Data Link Protocol Sublayer and the Coding and Synchronization Sublayer boundary. The Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL) provides the encoding, randomization, and frame synchronization functions that prepares the USLP Transfer Frame for transport across the space link. The CS-SL is divided into 2 processes: 1) The Frame Interface Processes (FIP) performs the interface functions required to prepare the data for delivery to the Coding/Decoding Process (CDP). This process includes prepending a Frame Start Marker to the provided frame, when management has designated that the frame is not to be aligned to the codeblock or when there is no block code used. 2) The Coding/Decoding Process (CDP) performs the forward error correction processes that are used to optimize the performance of the link and minimize the error rate. The CDP creates the symbol stream that is delivered to the Physical Layer. The transfer of the USLP transfer frames across different types of space links is the focus of this paper. The Protocol Data Unit (PDU) that is passed in both directions between the Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) and Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL) is the transfer frame. The USLP frame structure provides flexibility that can be constrained by the functions utilized within the CS-SL that prepare the transfer frame for transit. For example, the USLP transfer frame contains a length field that enables the frame to be of variable length but CS-SL under certain conditions may constrain the frame to be fixed in length. This paper describes 5 operational modes available for use by the Data Link Layer to provide data exchange across the USLP space link. These modes are different because different operational requirements apply to vastly different types of space links and thus the communications implementation requirements differ. The environmental issues include the power or energy available, the distance between the end points of the link, the complexity of the equipment available at those end points, the atmospheric conditions and radiometric frequency selection. The CS-SL utilizes different forward error correcting codes supported by specific operational modes to configure the data for transit. This paper describes all of the operational modes in a series of data models which decompose the functionality between the Data Link Protocol Sublayer and the Coding and Synchronization sublayer. The operational modes described are: 1. Uncoded Mode: has been used for short links that contain significant available power to provide an acceptable frame error rate. The frames in this mode can be variable in length and typically use an error detection algorithm (i.e., CRC) to determine if there are errors in the received frame. 2. Convolutional Only Mode: is currently the prime forward error correction coding used for the proximity links. The frames in this mode can be variable in length and typically use an error detection algorithm (i.e., CRC) to determine if there are errors in the received frame. 3. Variable Length Frame Aligned to Variable Length Codeblock (TC): is used for Direct from Earth links were power levels are high and the simple, least complex code i.e., the BCH code is used. This mode has been in use since the early 1970s. The BCH code is a short code and the decoder is easy to implement. 4. Fixed Length Frame Aligned to Fixed Length Codeblock (AOS/TM): was introduced when the concatenated Convolutional and Reed-Solomon Code was formulated to provide significant reduction in link data error rate and the ability to determine if there was an error in the decoded codeblock. The frame is aligned to the codeblock so that there is a one to one relationship of frame errors to codeblock errors without additional error detection coding being added. This mode requires the protocol frames to be the exact size of the message portion of the codeblock. 5. Frames Unaligned to Fixed Length Codeblocks (Currently used for very high rates and space to space links): This mode is currently used for missions that have a very high data rate that can be controlled adaptively as the environment changes and as the next generation operating mode for the proximity link. This mode from a coded data stream point of view is exactly like that described in 4. above, except that the frame need not be aligned to the codeblock. There is no requirement on frame length when using this mode. Thus when using USLP it can be used to support links that require short or long frames. There is also no mandatory requirement that frames cannot be separated by idle data reducing the tight data rate connection requirements between the data link protocol sublayer and the coding & synchronization sublayer. In conclusion, how these operational modes can be put to use in mission operational scenarios is described for Direct from Earth links (DFE), Direct to Earth links (DTE), and Proximity links.

Greenberg, E.↗

Grand Challenges and Opportunities in Stimulated Dynamic and Resonant Catalysis

Traditional heterogeneous catalysis is constrained by kinetic and thermodynamic limits, such as the Sabatier principle and reaction equilibrium. Dynamic and resonant catalysts hold promise to overcome these limitations by actively oscillating a catalyst’s physical or electronic structure at the time scale of the catalytic cycle, allowing programmable control over reaction pathways, and leading to improved rate and selectivity. External stimuli such as temperature swing, mechanical strain, electric charge, and light can perturb catalyst surfaces in different ways, altering adsorbate coverage, binding energies, and transition states beyond what steady-state catalysis allows. This work surveys the current state of dynamic catalysis, introduces the concept of “ stimulando ” characterization for observing transient dynamics, and outlines key modeling, mechanistic, and benchmarking strategies to advance the field toward improved chemical transformation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of display design and command usage guidelines for Spacelab experiment computer applications

Individual Spacelab experiments are responsible for developing their CRT display formats and interactive command scenarios for payload crew monitoring and control of experiment operations via the Spacelab Data Display System (DDS). In order to enhance crew training and flight operations, it was important to establish some standardization of the crew/experiment interface among different experiments by providing standard methods and techniques for data presentation and experiment commanding via the DDS. In order to establish optimum usage guidelines for the Spacelab DDS, the capabilities and limitations of the hardware and Experiment Computer Operating System design had to be considered. Since the operating system software and hardware design had already been established, the Display and Command Usage Guidelines were constrained to the capabilities of the existing system design. Empirical evaluations were conducted on a DDS simulator to determine optimum operator/system interface utilization of the system capabilities. Display parameters such as information location, display density, data organization, status presentation and dynamic update effects were evaluated in terms of response times and error rates.

Dodson, D. W.↗

The role of small missions in planetary and lunar exploration

The Space Studies Board of the National Research Council charged its Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration (COMPLEX) to (1) examine the degree to which small missions, such as those fitting within the constraints of the Discovery program, can achieve priority objectives in the lunar and planetary sciences; (2) determine those characteristics, such as level of risk, flight rate, target mix, university involvement, technology development, management structure and procedures, and so on, that could allow a successful program; (3) assess issues, such as instrument selection, mission operations, data analysis, and data archiving, to ensure the greatest scientific return from a particular mission, given a rapid deployment schedule and a tightly constrained budget; and (4) review past programmatic attempts to establish small planetary science mission lines, including the Planetary Observers and Planetary Explorers, and consider the impact management practices have had on such programs. A series of small missions presents the planetary science community with the opportunity to expand the scope of its activities and to develop the potential and inventiveness of its members in ways not possible within the confines of large, traditional programs. COMPLEX also realized that a program of small planetary missions was, in and of itself, incapable of meeting all of the prime objectives contained in its report 'An Integrated Strategy for the Planetary Sciences: 1995-2010.' Recommendations are provided for the small planetary missions to fulfill their promise.

Source record↗

Effects of Transparency on Pilot Trust and Agreement in the Autonomous Constrained Flight Planner

We performed a human-in-the-loop study to explore the role of transparency in engendering trust and reliance within highly automated systems. Specifically, we examined how transparency impacts trust in and reliance upon the Autonomous Constrained Flight Planner (ACFP), a critical automated system being developed as part of NASA's Reduced Crew Operations (RCO) Concept. The ACFP is designed to provide an enhanced ground operator, termed a super dispatcher, with recommended diversions for aircraft when their primary destinations are unavailable. In the current study, 12 commercial transport rated pilots who played the role of super dispatchers were given six time-pressured all land scenarios where they needed to use the ACFP to determine diversions for multiple aircraft. Two factors were manipulated. The primary factor was level of transparency. In low transparency scenarios the pilots were given a recommended airport and runway, plus basic information about the weather conditions, the aircraft types, and the airport and runway characteristics at that and other airports. In moderate transparency scenarios the pilots were also given a risk evaluation for the recommended airport, and for the other airports if they requested it. In the high transparency scenario additional information including the reasoning for the risk evaluations was made available to the pilots. The secondary factor was level of risk, either high or low. For high-risk aircraft, all potential diversions were rated as highly risky, with the ACFP giving the best option for a bad situation. For low-risk aircraft the ACFP found only low-risk options for the pilot. Both subjective and objective measures were collected, including rated trust, whether the pilots checked the validity of the automation recommendation, and whether the pilots eventually flew to the recommended diversion airport. Key results show that: 1) Pilots trust increased with higher levels of transparency, 2) Pilots were more likely to verify ACFPs recommendations with low levels of transparency and when risk was high, 3) Pilots were more likely to explore other options from the ACFP in low transparency conditions and when risk was high, and 4) Pilots decision to accept or reject ACFPs recommendations increased as a function of the transparency in the explanation. The finding that higher levels of transparency was coupled with higher levels of trust, a lower need to verify other options, and higher levels of agreement with ACFP recommendations, confirms the importance of transparency in aiding reliance on automated recommendations. Additional analyses of qualitative data gathered from subjects through surveys and during debriefing interviews also provided the basis for new design recommendations for the ACFP.

trust↗

In situ measurements constraining the role of sulphate aerosols in mid-latitude ozone depletion

In situ measurements of stratospheric sulphate aerosol, reactive nitrogen and chlorine concentrations at middle latitudes confirm the importance of aerosol surface reactions that convert active nitrogen to a less active, reservoir form. This makes mid-latitude stratospheric ozone less vulnerable to active nitrogen and more vulnerable to chlorine species. The effect of aerosol reactions on active nitrogen depends on gas phase reaction rates, so that increases in aerosol concentration following volcanic eruptions will have only a limited effect on ozone depletion at these latitudes.

Fahey, D. W.↗

A Study of the Mass Loss Rates of Symbiotic Star Systems

The amount of mass loss in symbiotic systems is investigated, specifically mass loss via the formation of jets in R Aquarii (R Aqr). The jets in R Aqr have been observed in the X-ray by Chandra over a four year time period. The jet changes on times scales of a year and new outflows have been observed. Understanding the amount of mass and the frequency of ejection further constrain the ability of the white dwarf in the system to accrete enough mass to become a Type la supernova progenitor. The details of multi-wavelength studies, such as speed, density and spatial extent of the jets will be discussed in order to understand the mass balance in the binary system. We examine other symbiotic systems to determine trends in mass loss in this class of objects.

Korreck, K. E.↗

Large reductions in Permian Basin methane intensity shown in multi-year comparison of aerially-visible methane emissions

Spanning the US states of Texas and New Mexico, the Permian Basin has been a hotspot of methane emissions from oil and natural gas activity 1–4, although studies disagree over the magnitude of these emissions. The most comprehensive measurement campaigns published were conducted in 2019 1–5 .There have been large changes in the energy industry since then, including in the prices of oil and gas, both state and federal regulatory environments, investor and activist pressure over methane emissions, and the adoption of new technologies and policies by energy operators. Understanding how any or all of these might influence methane emissions is important for policy makers, oil and gas operators, and other stakeholders. We characterize the time evolution of Permian Basin methane emissions using a series of comprehensive aerial surveys conducted every year from 2020-2023 and compare them to the 2019 results cited above. To maintain comparability, all the data sets are from surveys using Insight M point source methane sensing technology. The scope of these surveys expanded over time: from 33-46% of wells, oil production, and gas production in 2020 to 60-65% in 2021, to 84% of wells and over 90% of both oil and gas production in 2023. These surveys by Insight M also include hundreds of gas processing plants and compressor stations as well as 1000s of km of gathering and transmission pipelines. Considering only the aerially detected portion of emissions (typically the majority of the total in such surveys 4), we find reductions of more than 70% in methane emissions intensity compared to the 2019 New Mexico-only Insight M survey, with variation depending on the year 3,4. Notably, although sources below 100 kg/hr contributed less than 10% of aerially measured emissions the 2019 New Mexico survey 3, these smaller sources constitute a larger proportion of total aerially measured emissions (although not the majority) in 2020-2023. Production facilities and gathering pipelines are responsible for the larges shares of total emissions, followed by compressor stations and gas processing plants. Permian methane emissions were also measured in a comprehensive 2019 Permian-wide survey by the Carbon Mapper team 2. That analysis led to a lower total emissions estimate at the time 4. These new Insight M-based emission rates are still roughly 30-70% lower than the aerially measured portion of the 2019 Carbon Mapper-based estimates 4. Further work is needed to harmonize these surveys in space and time to create the most intercomparable numbers possible 5. Additional analysis is needed to compare our findings to the more spatially constrained 2020, 2021, and 2023 Carbon Mapper surveys in the Permian 4,6. The evidence is strong from these two survey teams that emissions intensity has declined significantly since 2019. Reasons for this trend are currently unclear but point to possible success of emissions control programs. Future work investigating frequency, source, and operator-specific intensities could provide insights into the causes of this promising trend.

methane, oil and gas, data science, remote sensing↗

Constraints on impact rates in the Pluto-Charon system and the population of the Kuiper comet belt

Impact rates in the Pluto-Charon system are dominated by comets from the proposed Kuiper Belt, 30 to 50 AU from the sun. Such collisions excite the eccentricity of Charon's orbit, which then decays due to tidal dissipation. Charon's eccentricity approaches a quasi-steady state, which can be used to constrain the total number and mass of comets in the Kuiper Belt. Unfortunately, the current upper limit on Charon's orbital eccentricity must be reduced by more than a factor of ten before useful constraints can be set.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

Investigation of the effects of bandwidth and time delay on helicopter roll-axis handling qualities

Several years of cooperative research conducted under the U.S./German Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in helicopter flight control has recently resulted in a successful handling qualities study. The focus of this cooperative research has been the effects on handling qualities due to time delays in combination with a high bandwidth vehicle. The jointly performed study included the use of U.S. ground-based simulation and German in-flight simulation facilities. The NASA-Ames Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) was used to develop a high bandwidth slalom tracking task which took into consideration the constraints of the facilities. The VMS was also used to define a range of the test parameters and to perform initial handling qualities evaluations. The flight tests were conducted using DLR's variable-stability BO 105 S3 Advanced Technology Testing Helicopter System (ATTHeS). Configurations included a rate command and an attitude command response system with added time delays up to 160 milliseconds over the baseline and bandwidth values between 1.5 and 4.5 rad/sec. Sixty-six evaluations were performed in about 25 hours of flight time during ten days of testing. The results indicate a need to more tightly constrain the allowable roll axis phase delay for the Level 1 and Level 2 requirements in the U.S. Army's specification for helicopter handling qualities, ADS-33C.

Pausder, Heinz-Juergen↗

Investigation of the effects of bandwidth and time delay on helicopter roll-axis handling qualities

Several years of cooperative research conducted under the U.S./German Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in helicopter flight control has recently resulted in a successful handling qualities study. The focus of this cooperative research has been the effects on handling qualities due to time delays in combination with a high bandwidth vehicle. The jointly performed study included the use of U.S. ground-based simulation and German in-flight simulation facilities. The NASA-Ames Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) was used to develop a high bandwidth slalom tracking task which took into consideration the constraints of the facilities. The VMS was also used to define a range of the test parameters and to perform initial handling qualities evaluations. The flight tests were conducted using DLR's variable-stability BO 105 S3 Advanced Technology Testing Helicopter System (ATTHeS). Configurations included a rate command and an attitude command response system with added time delays up to 160 milliseconds over the baseline and bandwidth values between 1.5 and 4.5 rad/sec. Sixty-six evaluations were performed in about 25 hr of flight time during 10 days of testing. The results indicate a need to more tightly constrain the allowable roll axis phase delay for the Level 1 and Level 2 requirements in the U.S. Army's specification for helicopter handling qualities, ADS-33C.

Pausder, Heinz-Juergen↗

Are models of catalytic removal of O3 by HO(x) accurate? Constraints from in situ measurements of the OH to HO2 ratio

Measurements of the ratio OH/HO2, NO, O3, ClO, and BrO were obtained at altitudes from 15-20 km and latitudes from 15-60 deg N. A method is presented for interpreting the rates of chemical transformations that (1) are responsible for over half the ozone removal rate in the lower stratosphere via reactions of HO2; and (2) control the abundance of HO2 through coupling to nitrogen and halogen radicals. The results show our understanding of the chemical reactions controlling the partitioning of OH and HO2 is complete and accurate and that the potential effects of 'missing chemistry' are strickly constrained in the region of the atmosphere encompassed by the observations. The analysis demonstrates that the sensitivity of the ratio OH/HO2 to changes in NO is described to within 12% by current models. This reduces by more than a factor of 2 the effect of uncertainty in the coupling of hydrogen and nitrogen radicals on the analysis of the potential effects of perturbations to odd notrogen in the lower statosphere.

Cohen, R. C.↗

Terrestrial Exospheric Dayside H-density Profile at 3 - 15 RE from UVIS/HDAC and TWINS Lyman-alpha Data Combined

Terrestrial ecliptic dayside observations of the exospheric Lyman-α column intensity between 3–15 Earth radii (RE) by UVIS/HDAC (UVIS – ultraviolet imaging spectrograph; HDAC – hydrogen-deuterium absorption cell) Lyman-α photometer at CASSINI have been analyzed to derive the neutral exospheric H-density profile at the Earth’s ecliptic dayside in this radial range. The data were measured during CASSINI’s swing-by maneuver at the Earth on 18 August 1999 and are published by Werner et al. (2004). In this study the dayside HDAC Lyman-α observations published by Werner et al. (2004) are compared to calculated Lyman-α intensities based on the 3D H-density model derived from TWINS (Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers) Lyman-α observations between 2008–2010 (Zoennchen et al., 2015). It was found that both Lyman-α profiles show a very similar radial dependence in particular between 3–8RE. Between 3.0–5.5RE impact distance Lyman-α observations of both TWINS and UVIS/HDAC exist at the ecliptic dayside. In this overlapping region the cross-calibration of the HDAC profile against the calculated TWINS profile was done, assuming that the exosphere there was similar for both due to comparable space weather conditions. As a result of the cross-calibration the conversion factor between counts per second and rayleigh, fc = 3.285 counts s−1R−1, is determined for these HDAC observations. Using this factor, the radial H-density profile for the Earth’s ecliptic dayside was derived from the UVIS/HDAC observations, which constrained the neutral H density there at 10RE to a value of 35 cm-3. Furthermore, a faster radial H-density decrease was found at distances above 8RE (≈r−2.37) compared to the lower distances of 3–7RE (≈r−2.37). This increased loss of neutral H above 8RE might indicate a higher rate of H ionization in the vicinity of the magnetopause at 9–11RE (near subsolar point) and beyond, because of increasing charge exchange interactions of exospheric H atoms with solar wind ions outside the magnetosphere.

Jochen H Zoennchen↗

A constrained joint source/channel coder design and vector quantization of nonstationary sources

The emergence of broadband ISDN as the network for the future brings with it the promise of integration of all proposed services in a flexible environment. In order to achieve this flexibility, asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) has been proposed as the transfer technique. During this period a study was conducted on the bridging of network transmission performance and video coding. The successful transmission of variable bit rate video over ATM networks relies on the interaction between the video coding algorithm and the ATM networks. Two aspects of networks that determine the efficiency of video transmission are the resource allocation algorithm and the congestion control algorithm. These are explained in this report. Vector quantization (VQ) is one of the more popular compression techniques to appear in the last twenty years. Numerous compression techniques, which incorporate VQ, have been proposed. While the LBG VQ provides excellent compression, there are also several drawbacks to the use of the LBG quantizers including search complexity and memory requirements, and a mismatch between the codebook and the inputs. The latter mainly stems from the fact that the VQ is generally designed for a specific rate and a specific class of inputs. In this work, an adaptive technique is proposed for vector quantization of images and video sequences. This technique is an extension of the recursively indexed scalar quantization (RISQ) algorithm.

Sayood, Khalid↗

A New Model of Dry Firn Densification Constrained By Continuous Strain Measurements Near South Pole

Converting measurements of ice-sheet surface elevation change to mass change requires measurements of accumulation and knowledge of the evolution of the density profile in the firn. Most firn-densification models are tuned using measured depth-density profiles, a method which is based on an assumption that the density profile in the firn is invariant through time. Here we present continuous measurements of firn-compaction rates in 12 boreholes near the South Pole over a two-year period. To our knowledge, these are the first continuous measurements of firn compaction on the Antarctic Plateau. We use the data to derive a new firn-densification algorithm framed as a constitutive relationship. We also compare our measurements to compaction rates predicted by several existing firn densification models. Results indicate that an activation energy of 60 kJ mol (−1), a value within the range used by current models, best predicts the seasonal cycle in compaction rates on the Antarctic Plateau. Our results suggest models can predict firn-compaction rates with at best 7% uncertainty and cumulative firn compaction on a two year timescale with at best 8% uncertainty.

C. Max Stevens↗

Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation

Abstract Current biogeochemical models produce carbon–climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first‐order or Michaelis–Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high‐quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics‐function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗