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Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Some anticipated contributions to core fluid dynamics from the GRM

It is broadly maintained that the secular variation (SV) of the large scale geomagnetic field contains information on the fluid dynamics of Earth's electrically conducting outer core. The electromagnetic theory appropriate to a simple Earth model has recently been combined with reduced geomagnetic data in order to extract some of this information and ascertain its significance. The simple Earth model consists of a rigid, electrically insulating mantle surrounding a spherical, inviscid, and perfectly conducting liquid outer core. This model was tested against seismology by using truncated spherical harmonic models of the observed geomagnetic field to locate Earth's core-mantle boundary, CMB. Further electromagnetic theory has been developed and applied to the problem of estimating the horizontal fluid motion just beneath CMB. Of particular geophysical interest are the hypotheses that these motions: (1) include appreciable surface divergence indicative of vertical motion at depth, and (2) are steady for time intervals of a decade or more. In addition to the extended testing of the basic Earth model, the proposed GRM provides a unique opportunity to test these dynamical hypotheses.

Vanvorhies, C.↗

Optimal output fast feedback in two-time scale control of flexible arms

Control of lightweight flexible arms moving along predefined paths can be successfully synthesized on the basis of a two-time scale approach. A model following control can be designed for the reduced order slow subsystem. The fast subsystem is a linear system in which the slow variables act as parameters. The flexible fast variables which model the deflections of the arm along the trajectory can be sensed through strain gage measurements. For full state feedback design the derivatives of the deflections need to be estimated. The main contribution of this work is the design of an output feedback controller which includes a fixed order dynamic compensator, based on a recent convergent numerical algorithm for calculating LQ optimal gains. The design procedure is tested by means of simulation results for the one link flexible arm prototype in the laboratory.

Siciliano, B.↗

Optimal Design of Passive Flow Control for a Boundary-Layer-Ingesting Offset Inlet Using Design-of-Experiments

This research will investigate the use of Design-of-Experiments (DOE) in the development of an optimal passive flow control vane design for a boundary-layer-ingesting (BLI) offset inlet in transonic flow. This inlet flow control is designed to minimize the engine fan-face distortion levels and first five Fourier harmonic half amplitudes while maximizing the inlet pressure recovery. Numerical simulations of the BLI inlet are computed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver, OVERFLOW, developed at NASA. These simulations are used to generate the numerical experiments for the DOE response surface model. In this investigation, two DOE optimizations were performed using a D-Optimal Response Surface model. The first DOE optimization was performed using four design factors which were vane height and angles-of-attack for two groups of vanes. One group of vanes was placed at the bottom of the inlet and a second group symmetrically on the sides. The DOE design was performed for a BLI inlet with a free-stream Mach number of 0.85 and a Reynolds number of 2 million, based on the length of the fan-face diameter, matching an experimental wind tunnel BLI inlet test. The first DOE optimization required a fifth order model having 173 numerical simulation experiments and was able to reduce the DC60 baseline distortion from 64% down to 4.4%, while holding the pressure recovery constant. A second DOE optimization was performed holding the vanes heights at a constant value from the first DOE optimization with the two vane angles-of-attack as design factors. This DOE only required a second order model fit with 15 numerical simulation experiments and reduced DC60 to 3.5% with small decreases in the fourth and fifth harmonic amplitudes. The second optimal vane design was tested at the NASA Langley 0.3- Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel in a BLI inlet experiment. The experimental results showed a 80% reduction of DPCP(sub avg), the circumferential distortion level at the engine fan-face.

Allan, Brian G.↗

Optimal Design of Passive Flow Control for a Boundary-Layer-Ingesting Offset Inlet Using Design-of-Experiments

This research will investigate the use of Design-of-Experiments (DOE) in the development of an optimal passive flow control vane design for a boundary-layer-ingesting (BLI) offset inlet in transonic flow. This inlet flow control is designed to minimize the engine fan face distortion levels and first five Fourier harmonic half amplitudes while maximizing the inlet pressure recovery. Numerical simulations of the BLI inlet are computed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver, OVERFLOW, developed at NASA. These simulations are used to generate the numerical experiments for the DOE response surface model. In this investigation, two DOE optimizations were performed using a D-Optimal Response Surface model. The first DOE optimization was performed using four design factors which were vane height and angles-of-attack for two groups of vanes. One group of vanes was placed at the bottom of the inlet and a second group symmetrically on the sides. The DOE design was performed for a BLI inlet with a free-stream Mach number of 0.85 and a Reynolds number of 2 million, based on the length of the fan face diameter, matching an experimental wind tunnel BLI inlet test. The first DOE optimization required a fifth order model having 173 numerical simulation experiments and was able to reduce the DC60 baseline distortion from 64% down to 4.4%, while holding the pressure recovery constant. A second DOE optimization was performed holding the vanes heights at a constant value from the first DOE optimization with the two vane angles-of-attack as design factors. This DOE only required a second order model fit with 15 numerical simulation experiments and reduced DC60 to 3.5% with small decreases in the fourth and fifth harmonic amplitudes. The second optimal vane design was tested at the NASA Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel in a BLI inlet experiment. The experimental results showed a 80% reduction of DPCPavg, the circumferential distortion level at the engine fan face.

Allan, Brian G.↗

H-infinity based integrated flight-propulsion control design for a STOVL aircraft in transition flight

Results are presented from an application of H-infinity control design methodology to a centralized integrated flight/propulsion control (IFPC) system design for a supersonic Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) fighter aircraft in transition flight. The overall design methodology consists of a centralized IFPC controller design with controller partitioning. Only the feedback controller design portion of the methodology is addressed. Design and evaluation vehicle models are summarized, and insight is provided into formulating the H-infinity control problem such that it reflects the IFPC design objectives. The H-infinity controller is shown to provide decoupled command tracking for the design model. The controller order could be significantly reduced by modal residualization of the fast controller modes without any deterioration in performance. A discussion is presented of the areas in which the controller performance needs to be improved, and ways in which these improvements can be achieved within the framework of an H-infinity based linear control design.

Garg, Sanjay↗

H-infinity based integrated flight/propulsion control design for a STOVL aircraft in transition flight

This paper presents results from an application of H(infinity) control design methodology to a centralized integrated flight/propulsion control (IFPC) system design for a supersonic STOVL fighter aircraft in transition flight. The overall design methodology consists of a centralized IFPC design with controller partitioning. Design and evaluation vehicle models are summarized, and insight is provided into formulating the H(infinity) control problem such that it reflects the IFPC design objective. The H(infinity) controller is shown to provide decoupled command tracking for the design model. The controller order could be significantly reduced by modal residualization of the fast controller modes without any deterioration in performance.

Garg, Sanjay↗

State reduction for semi-Markov reliability models

Semi-Markov processes have proved to be an effective and convenient tool to construct models of systems that achieve reliability by redundancy and reconfiguration. These models are able to depict complex system architectures and to capture the dynamics of fault arrival and system recovery. A disadvantage of this approach is that the models can be extremely large, which poses both a model construction and a computational problem. Techniques are needed to reduce the model size. Because these systems are used in critical applications where failure can be expensive, there must be an analytically derived bound for the error produced by the model reduction technique. Automatic model generation programs have been written to help the reliability analyst produce models of complex systems. Because of the importance of these programs, the model reduction technique needs to be precise and easily implemented. This paper presents a model reduction technique called trimming that can be applied to a popular class of systems. An error bound for the trimming procedure is derived that uses readily available system parameters. The trimming procedure is precisely described and appears easy to implement in a model generation program.

Reduced order systems↗

Combining Static Analysis and Model Checking for Software Analysis

We present an iterative technique in which model checking and static analysis are combined to verify large software systems. The role of the static analysis is to compute partial order information which the model checker uses to reduce the state space. During exploration, the model checker also computes aliasing information that it gives to the static analyzer which can then refine its analysis. The result of this refined analysis is then fed back to the model checker which updates its partial order reduction. At each step of this iterative process, the static analysis computes optimistic information which results in an unsafe reduction of the state space. However we show that the process converges to a fired point at which time the partial order information is safe and the whole state space is explored.

Brat, Guillaume↗

Multi-Axis Identifiability Using Single-Surface Parameter Estimation Maneuvers on the X-48B Blended Wing Body

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body type aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aero- dynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This fact adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of system inputs must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, asymmetric, single-surface maneuvers are used to excite multiple axes of aircraft motion simultaneously. Time history reconstructions of the moment coefficients computed by the solved regression models are then compared to each other in order to assess relative model accuracy. The reduced flight-test time required for inner surface parameter estimation using multi-axis methods was found to come at the cost of slightly reduced accuracy and statistical confidence for linear regression methods. Since the multi-axis maneuvers captured parameter estimates similar to both longitudinal and lateral-directional maneuvers combined, the number of test points required for the inner, aileron-like surfaces could in theory have been reduced by 50%. While trends were similar, however, individual parameters as estimated by a multi-axis model were typically different by an average absolute difference of roughly 15-20%, with decreased statistical significance, than those estimated by a single-axis model. The multi-axis model exhibited an increase in overall fit error of roughly 1-5% for the linear regression estimates with respect to the single-axis model, when applied to flight data designed for each, respectively.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗

How Difficult is it to Reduce Low-Level Cloud Biases With the Higher-Order Turbulence Closure Approach in Climate Models?

Low-level clouds cover nearly half of the Earth and play a critical role in regulating the energy and hydrological cycle. Despite the fact that a great effort has been put to advance the modeling and observational capability in recent years, low-level clouds remains one of the largest uncertainties in the projection of future climate change. Low-level cloud feedbacks dominate the uncertainty in the total cloud feedback in climate sensitivity and projection studies. These clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate in climate models due to its complicated interactions with aerosols, cloud microphysics, boundary-layer turbulence and cloud dynamics. The biases in both low cloud coverage/water content and cloud radiative effects (CREs) remain large. A simultaneous reduction in both cloud and CRE biases remains elusive. This presentation first reviews the effort of implementing the higher-order turbulence closure (HOC) approach to representing subgrid-scale turbulence and low-level cloud processes in climate models. There are two HOCs that have been implemented in climate models. They differ in how many three-order moments are used. The CLUBB are implemented in both CAM5 and GDFL models, which are compared with IPHOC that is implemented in CAM5 by our group. IPHOC uses three third-order moments while CLUBB only uses one third-order moment while both use a joint double-Gaussian distribution to represent the subgrid-scale variability. Despite that HOC is more physically consistent and produces more realistic low-cloud geographic distributions and transitions between cumulus and stratocumulus regimes, GCMs with traditional cloud parameterizations outperform in CREs because tuning of this type of models is more extensively performed than those with HOCs. We perform several tuning experiments with CAM5 implemented with IPHOC in an attempt to produce the nearly balanced global radiative budgets without deteriorating the low-cloud simulation. One of the issues in CAM5-IPHOC is that cloud water content is much higher than in CAM5, which is combined with higher low-cloud coverage to produce larger shortwave CREs in some low-cloud prevailing regions. Thus, the cloud-radiative feedbacks are exaggerated there. The turning exercise is focused on microphysical parameters, which are also commonly used for tuning in climate models. The results will be discussed in this presentation.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Dynamical axion misalignment with small instantons

We present a new mechanism to relax the initial misalignment angle of the QCD axion and raise the cosmological bound on the axion decay constant. The QCD axion receives a contribution from small UV instantons during inflation, which raises its mass to the inflationary Hubble scale. This makes the axion start rolling down its potential early on. In the scenario, the standard model Yukawa couplings of quarks are dynamical, being of order one during the inflationary era and reducing to their standard model values once it ends. This means that after inflation the contribution of the small instantons is suppressed, and the axion potential reduces to the standard one from the usual IR instantons. As a result, when the axion starts to oscillate again after inflation, the initial misalignment angle is suppressed due to the dynamics during inflation. While the general idea of dynamical axion misalignment has been discussed in the literature before, we present in detail the major bottleneck on the mismatching between the minima of the axion potentials during and after inflation, and how it is circumvented in our scenario via the Froggatt-Nielsen mechanism. Taking into account of all the constraints, we find that the axion decay constant could be raised to the GUT scale, 1015 GeV, in our scenario.

Manuel A. Buen-Abad↗

A method for obtaining reduced-order control laws for high-order systems using optimization techniques

A method of synthesizing reduced-order optimal feedback control laws for a high-order system is developed. A nonlinear programming algorithm is employed to search for the control law design variables that minimize a performance index defined by a weighted sum of mean-square steady-state responses and control inputs. An analogy with the linear quadractic Gaussian solution is utilized to select a set of design variables and their initial values. To improve the stability margins of the system, an input-noise adjustment procedure is used in the design algorithm. The method is applied to the synthesis of an active flutter-suppression control law for a wind tunnel model of an aeroelastic wing. The reduced-order controller is compared with the corresponding full-order controller and found to provide nearly optimal performance. The performance of the present method appeared to be superior to that of two other control law order-reduction methods. It is concluded that by using the present algorithm, nearly optimal low-order control laws with good stability margins can be synthesized.

Mukhopadhyay, V.↗

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Probing Sensitivity of Discharge Characteristics to Model Selection using Uncertainty Quantification in an aprotic Li-Oxygen Battery

Currently, there are several models in the literature, such as kinetic models, microstructural models, and mass transport models that describe a Li-air battery's discharge behavior. Many of these models are calibrated and tested at low current densities and cannot be easily transferred to high current densities. Even at low current densities, there is no quantitative method for a researcher to choose a reaction kinetic model such as classical Butler-Volmer and its derivatives, and modified Marcus-Hush-Chidsey, a resistance model for lithium peroxide such as electron transport via tunneling or linear resistivity, a surface coverage model (lithium peroxide growth) such as partial coverage or full coverage, and mass transport model (discussed in Ref. [1]). Also, it is time-consuming to test different models at high current density (1C) due to a lack of well-tested models and well-calibrated model parameters. For this presentation, we will develop an analytical model, which acts as a surrogate model for a sophisticated finite element model to predict discharge time and discharge voltage. Next, we use an uncertainty quantifying technique called reduced-order stochastic optimization [2, 3] to determine the uncertainty in model parameters for rate kinetics, lithium peroxide resistivity, and parasitic resistance. Finally, a finite element simulation is performed to determine the error introduced by the surrogate model and its influence on the uncertainty in the model parameters.

M Mehta↗

A fractional calculus framework for open quantum dynamics: From Liouville to Lindblad to memory kernels

Open quantum systems exhibit dynamics ranging from unitary evolution to irreversible dissipation. While the Gorini–Kossakowski–Sudarshan–Lindblad equation uniquely characterizes Markovian completely positive and trace-preserving (CPTP) evolution, many physical platforms display non-Markovian features such as algebraic relaxation and coherence backflow. Fractional calculus provides a natural way to model such long-memory behavior through power-law temporal kernels introduced by fractional time derivatives. Here, we develop a unified framework that embeds fractional master equations within the broader hierarchy of open-system formalisms. The fractional equation forms a structured subclass of memory-kernel models, reduces to the Lindblad form at unit order, and, through Bochner–Phillips subordination, admits a CPTP representation as an average over Lindblad semigroups. Its resolvent structure further connects fractional dynamics to established non-Markovian approaches, including Nakajima–Zwanzig kernels and hierarchical equations of motion, providing a compact surrogate for long-memory effects. This formulation positions fractional calculus as a rigorous and practical language for modeling non-Markovian quantum dynamics in chemical physics and physical chemistry, providing a CPTP-preserving, computationally efficient surrogate for structured condensed-phase environments where long-time memory and dissipation play a central role.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reduced dimer production in solar-simulator-pumped continuous wave iodine lasers based on model simulations and scaling and pumping studies

A numerical rate equation model for a continuous wave iodine laser with longitudinally flowing gaseous lasant is validated by approximating two experiments that compare the perfluoroalkyl iodine lasants n-C3F7I and t-C4F9I. The salient feature of the simulations is that the production rate of the dimer (C4F9)2 is reduced by one order of magnitude relative to the dimer (C3F7)2. The model is then used to investigate the kinetic effects of this reduced dimer production, especially how it improves output power. Related parametric and scaling studies are also presented. When dimer production is reduced, more monomer radicals (t-C4F9) are available to combine with iodine ions, thus enhancing depletion of the laser lower level and reducing buildup of the principal quencher, molecular iodine. Fewer iodine molecules result in fewer downward transitions from quenching and more transitions from stimulated emission of lasing photons. Enhanced depletion of the lower level reduces the absorption of lasing photons. The combined result is more lasing photons and proportionally increased output power.

Costen, Robert C.↗

Unsteady loads measurements in a generic high speed engine model by means of recessed transducers

Results are presented from measurements of unsteady loads during performance tests of a generic high-speed engine model, which were made using high-frequency pressure gages installed in existing calorimeter ports of the engine model and recessed into the interior wall surface in order to reduce thermal flux to the gage diaphragm. In was found that the boundary layer pressure spectra at the model wall start to deviate from their flat plate counterpart at a short distance into the model inlet, which suggests the contributions to the spectra from the shock/boundary layer interaction. It was also found that significant levels of combustion noise propagate up through the subsonic portion of the boundary layer well into the inlet region. At the condition of an unstart, the combustion noise apparently couples with the acoustic modes of the model to cause acoustic 'hot spots' well upstream of the combustor.

Parrott, Tony L.↗