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NASA NTRS1987

Electronics reliability and measurement technology

A summary is presented of the Electronics Reliability and Measurement Technology Workshop. The meeting examined the U.S. electronics industry with particular focus on reliability and state-of-the-art technology. A general consensus of the approximately 75 attendees was that "the U.S. electronics industries are facing a crisis that may threaten their existence". The workshop had specific objectives to discuss mechanisms to improve areas such as reliability, yield, and performance while reducing failure rates, delivery times, and cost. The findings of the workshop addressed various aspects of the industry from wafers to parts to assemblies. Key problem areas that were singled out for attention are identified, and action items necessary to accomplish their resolution are recommended.

Heyman, Joseph S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Evaluation of competing software reliability predictions

Different software reliability models can produce very different answers when called upon to predict future reliability in a reliability growth context. Users need to know which, if any, of the competing predictions are trustworthy. Some techniques are presented which form the basis of a partial solution to this problem. Rather than attempting to decide which model is generally best, the approach adopted here allows a user to decide upon the most appropriate model for each application.

Abdel-Ghaly, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

The SCARE (Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation) computer program on statistical fast fracture reliability analysis with quadratic elements for volume distributed imperfections is enhanced to include the use of linear finite elements and the capability of designing against concurrent surface flaw induced ceramic component failure. The SCARE code is presently coupled as a postprocessor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose, finite element analysis program. The improved version now includes the Weibull and Batdorf statistical failure theories for both surface and volume flaw based reliability analysis. The program uses the two-parameter Weibull fracture strength cumulative failure probability distribution model with the principle of independent action for poly-axial stress states, and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive statistical theories. The shear-sensitive surface crack configurations include the Griffith crack and Griffith notch geometries, using the total critical coplanar strain energy release rate criterion to predict mixed-mode fracture. Weibull material parameters based on both surface and volume flaw induced fracture can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and grouped fracture data. The statistical fast fracture theories for surface flaw induced failure, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Gyekenyesi, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Software reliability perspectives

Software which is used in life critical functions must be known to be highly reliable before installation. This requires a strong testing program to estimate the reliability, since neither formal methods, software engineering nor fault tolerant methods can guarantee perfection. Prior to the final testing software goes through a debugging period and many models have been developed to try to estimate reliability from the debugging data. However, the existing models are poorly validated and often give poor performance. This paper emphasizes the fact that part of their failures can be attributed to the random nature of the debugging data given to these models as input, and it poses the problem of correcting this defect as an area of future research.

Wilson, Larry↗

NASA NTRS1987

Space station software reliability analysis based on failures observed during testing at the multisystem integration facility

Quality of software not only is vital to the successful operation of the space station, it is also an important factor in establishing testing requirements, time needed for software verification and integration as well as launching schedules for the space station. Defense of management decisions can be greatly strengthened by combining engineering judgments with statistical analysis. Unlike hardware, software has the characteristics of no wearout and costly redundancies, thus making traditional statistical analysis not suitable in evaluating reliability of software. A statistical model was developed to provide a representation of the number as well as types of failures occur during software testing and verification. From this model, quantitative measure of software reliability based on failure history during testing are derived. Criteria to terminate testing based on reliability objectives and methods to estimate the expected number of fixings required are also presented.

Tamayo, Tak Chai↗

NASA NTRS1987

Reliability models for Space Station power system

This paper presents a methodology for the reliability evaluation of Space Station power system. The two options considered are the photovoltaic system and the solar dynamic system. Reliability models for both of these options are described along with the methodology for calculating the reliability indices.

Singh, C.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Reliability of provocative tests of motion sickness susceptibility

Test-retest reliability values were derived from motion sickness susceptibility scores obtained from two successive exposures to each of three tests: (1) Coriolis sickness sensitivity test; (2) staircase velocity movement test; and (3) parabolic flight static chair test. The reliability of the three tests ranged from 0.70 to 0.88. Normalizing values from predictors with skewed distributions improved the reliability.

Calkins, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Making statistical inferences about software reliability

Failure times of software undergoing random debugging can be modeled as order statistics of independent but nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. Using this model inferences can be made about current reliability and, if debugging continues, future reliability. This model also shows the difficulty inherent in statistical verification of very highly reliable software such as that used by digital avionics in commercial aircraft.

Miller, Douglas R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A fourth generation reliability predictor

A reliability/availability predictor computer program has been developed and is currently being beta-tested by over 30 US companies. The computer program is called the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP). HARP was developed to fill an important gap in reliability assessment capabilities. This gap was manifested through the use of its third-generation cousin, the Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation (CARE III) program, over a six-year development period and an additional three-year period during which CARE III has been in the public domain. The accumulated experience of the over 30 establishments now using CARE III was used in the development of the HARP program.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Making statistical inferences about software reliability

Failure times of software undergoing random debugging can be modelled as order statistics of independent but nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. Using this model inferences can be made about current reliability and, if debugging continues, future reliability. This model also shows the difficulty inherent in statistical verification of very highly reliable software such as that used by digital avionics in commercial aircraft.

Miller, Douglas R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Reliability and performance evaluation of systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems

A method for evaluating the reliability of real-time systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems is proposed and investigated. It is a three stage technique that addresses the impact of knowledge-base uncertainties on the performance of expert systems. In the first stage, a Markov reliability model of the system is developed which identifies the key performance parameters of the expert system. In the second stage, the evaluation method is used to determine the values of the expert system's key performance parameters. The performance parameters can be evaluated directly by using a probabilistic model of uncertainties in the knowledge-base or by using sensitivity analyses. In the third and final state, the performance parameters of the expert system are combined with performance parameters for other system components and subsystems to evaluate the reliability and performance of the complete system. The evaluation method is demonstrated in the context of a simple expert system used to supervise the performances of an FDI algorithm associated with an aircraft longitudinal flight-control system.

Beaton, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Pivotal-Function Assessment Of Reliability Of Software

Approach developed to establish utility of pivotal functions for estimation and prediction of reliability of software. Improved estimates of reliability with statistical confidence obtained when relatively few testing data available. Pivotal functions effective tools for determination of confidence limits for reliability of software and prediction limits for time to next failure. Provides exact confidence and prediction limits regardless of how many bugs found in software.

Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An experimental evaluation of software redundancy as a strategy for improving reliability

The strategy of using multiple versions of independently developed software as a means to tolerate residual software design faults is suggested by the success of hardware redundancy for tolerating hardware failures. Although, as generally accepted, the independence of hardware failures resulting from physical wearout can lead to substantial increases in reliability for redundant hardware structures, a similar conclusion is not immediate for software. The degree to which design faults are manifested as independent failures determines the effectiveness of redundancy as a method for improving software reliability. Interest in multi-version software centers on whether it provides an adequate measure of increased reliability to warrant its use in critical applications. The effectiveness of multi-version software is studied by comparing estimates of the failure probabilities of these systems with the failure probabilities of single versions. The estimates are obtained under a model of dependent failures and compared with estimates obtained when failures are assumed to be independent. The experimental results are based on twenty versions of an aerospace application developed and certified by sixty programmers from four universities. Descriptions of the application, development and certification processes, and operational evaluation are given together with an analysis of the twenty versions.

Eckhardt, Dave E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliability model generator specification

The Reliability Model Generator (RMG), a program which produces reliability models from block diagrams for ASSIST, the interface for the reliability evaluation tool SURE is described. An account is given of motivation for RMG and the implemented algorithms are discussed. The appendices contain the algorithms and two detailed traces of examples.

Cohen, Gerald C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Balancing low cost with reliable operation in the rotordynamic design of the ALS Liquid Hydrogen Fuel Turbopump

The Air Force/NASA Advanced Launch System (ALS) Liquid Hydrogen Fuel Turbopump (FTP) has primary design goals of low cost and high reliability, with performance and weight having less importance. This approach is atypical compared with other rocket engine turbopump design efforts, such as on the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), which emphasized high performance and low weight. Similar to the SSME turbopumps, the ALS FTP operates supercritically, which implies that stability and bearing loads strongly influence the design. In addition, the use of low cost/high reliability features in the ALS FTP such as hydrostatic bearings, relaxed seal clearances, and unshrouded turbine blades also have a negative influence on rotordynamics. This paper discusses the analysis conducted to achieve a balance between low cost and acceptable rotordynamic behavior, to ensure that the ALS FTP will operate reliably without subsynchronous instabilities or excessive bearing loads.

Greenhill, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Predicting software reliability

A detailed look is given to software reliability techniques. A conceptual model of the failure process is examined, and some software reliability growth models are discussed. Problems for which no current solutions exist are addressed, emphasizing the very difficult problem of safety-critical systems for which the reliability requirements can be enormously demanding.

Littlewood, B.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Lower bound on reliability for Weibull distribution when shape parameter is not estimated accurately

The mathematical relationships between the shape parameter Beta and estimates of reliability and a life limit lower bound for the two parameter Weibull distribution are investigated. It is shown that under rather general conditions, both the reliability lower bound and the allowable life limit lower bound (often called a tolerance limit) have unique global minimums over a range of Beta. Hence lower bound solutions can be obtained without assuming or estimating Beta. The existence and uniqueness of these lower bounds are proven. Some real data examples are given to show how these lower bounds can be easily established and to demonstrate their practicality. The method developed here has proven to be extremely useful when using the Weibull distribution in analysis of no-failure or few-failures data. The results are applicable not only in the aerospace industry but anywhere that system reliabilities are high.

Huang, Zhaofeng↗