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M3SF-24LL010302052-Comprehensive Analysis of Radionuclide Interaction with Hydrothermally Altered Repository Materials

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010302052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline Work Package Number SF-24LL01030205. The research is focused on actinide and radionuclide sequestration in hydrothermally altered repository materials. In FY24, we completed a rigorous analysis of Se sorption to iron oxide phases using our L-SCIE sorption database. This effort explicitly accounts for surface titration behavior of oxide surfaces that was the subject of a recently published manuscript (Han et al., 2023). With this in mind, our Se sorption analysis now yields a more robust workflow for developing self-consistent surface complexation modeling approaches that can be adapted to specific SCM conceptual and numerical approaches (i.e. non-electrostatic, diffuse layer, triple layer models). In late FY24, we plan to publish the results of our comprehensive surface complexation modeling of Se(IV) and Se(VI) sorption to iron oxide mineral phases and provide a path forward to developing robust radionuclide sorption models for use in performance assessment. In FY24, we also submitted a manuscript summarizing our approach to integrating radionuclide sorption and coprecipitation phenomena and evaluation of radionuclide partitioning values across a range of radionuclides relevant to performance assessment. We demonstrated our approach in detail using Se sorption and coprecipitation with iron oxide minerals as a test case. This manuscript was recently accepted for publication in Applied Geochemistry (Balboni et al., Accepted). We also continued experiments to identify radionuclide interaction with hydrothermally altered crystalline repository and backfill materials. Recent research performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) has provided key insights regarding the hydrothermal alteration behavior of bentonite backfill in the presence of repository materials (steel, concrete, etc.). We are now examining how mineral alteration affects retardation behavior of a suite of radionuclides of interest to repository performance assessment. These experiments also allow us to test the predictive ability of our component additivity approach to surface complexation and ion exchange. Our guiding hypothesis is that a robust surface complexation/ion exchange model and associated database, developed using our L-SCIE approach, can effectively predict changes in radionuclide sorption behavior resulting from the hydrothermal alteration of mineralogy in a repository near field. A short update of results to date is presented below.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Recyclable Design for Retaining High Solar Absorptivity of the Media in CSP

Efficient thermal energy storage is pivotal to lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. In solid-particle systems, however, prolonged high-temperature service degrades particle solar absorptivity, eroding overall efficiency. This project demonstrates a hydrogen-assisted recovery process that reliably restores absorptivity to >90 %, offering a practical route to sustain long-term CSP performance. Bench-scale investigations mapped the reduction kinetics of optically faded particles across hydrogen concentrations, temperatures, and residence times. Coupling mass-spectrometric monitoring with machine-learning optimization minimized energy demand while maximizing absorptivity gain. The resulting process window—moderate hydrogen partial pressures, 15–30 min dwell times, and temperatures well below initial calcination levels—cuts energy consumption well below that of incumbent re-blackening methods. A prototype recovery reactor processed multiple 2 kg batches with repeatable outcomes, confirming scalability and operational robustness. Integrated techno-economic analysis indicates material and operating cost reductions exceeding 15 % relative to conventional particle replacement or chemical re-coating, translating directly into lower LCOE for next-generation CSP facilities. By uniting fundamental reaction-kinetics insight with pragmatic engineering, this work advances the solid-particle pathway, delivering a cost-effective, field-deployable solution to one of CSP’s key durability challenges and strengthening the commercial outlook for high-temperature renewable power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment

Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.

economics↗

Optimal use of human and machine resources for Space Station assembly operations

This paper investigates the issues involved in determining the best mix of human and machine resources for assembly of the Space Station. It presents the current Station assembly sequence, along with descriptions of the available assembly resources. A number of methodologies for optimizing the human/machine tradeoff problem have been developed, but the Space Station assembly offers some unique issues that have not yet been addressed. These include a strong constraint on available EVA time for early flights and a phased deployment of assembly resources over time. A methodology for incorporating the previously developed decision methods to the special case of the Space Station is presented. This methodology emphasizes an application of multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques, including simulation and decision analysis, for producing an objective, robust solution to the tradeoff problem.

Parrish, Joseph C.↗

Absolute Stability And Hyperstability In Hilbert Space

Theorems on stabilities of feedback control systems proved. Paper presents recent developments regarding theorems of absolute stability and hyperstability of feedforward-and-feedback control system. Theorems applied in analysis of nonlinear, adaptive, and robust control. Extended to provide sufficient conditions for stability in system including nonlinear feedback subsystem and linear time-invariant (LTI) feedforward subsystem, state space of which is Hilbert space, and input and output spaces having finite numbers of dimensions. (In case of absolute stability, feedback subsystem memoryless and possibly time varying. For hyperstability, feedback system dynamical system.)

Wen, John Ting-Yung↗

Raman Spectroscopy as a Method for Mineral Identification on Lunar Robotic Exploration Missions

The sharp, nonoverlapping Raman bands for plagioclase, pyroxene, and olivine would be advantageous for on-surface, active mineralogical analysis of lunar materials. A robust, light-weight, low-power, rover-based Raman spectrometer with a laser exciting source, entirely transmission-mode holographic optics, and a charge-coupled device (CCD) detector could fit within a less than 20 cm cube. A sensor head on the end of an optical fiber bundle that carried the laser beam and returned the scattered radiation could be placed against surfaces at any desired angle by a deployment mechanism; otherwise, the instrument would need no moving parts. A modem micro-Raman spectrometer with its beam broadened (to expand the spot to 50-micrometer diameter) and set for low resolution (7/cm in the 100-1400/cm region relative to 514.5-nm excitation), was used to simulate the spectra anticipated from a rover instrument. We present spectra for lunar mineral grains, less than 1 mm soil fines, breccia fragments, and glasses. From frequencies of olivine peaks, we derived sufficiently precise forsterite contents to correlate the analyzed grains to known rock types and we obtained appropriate forsterite contents from weak signals above background in soil fines and breccias. Peak positions of pyroxenes were sufficiently well determined to distinguish among orthorhombic, monoclinic, and triclinic (pyroxenoid) structures; additional information can be obtained from pyroxene spectra, but requires further laboratory calibration. Plagioclase provided sharp peaks in soil fines and most breccias even when the glass content was high.

Wang, Alian↗

The Synchrotron Shock Model Confronts a "Line of Death" in the BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Data

The synchrotron shock model (SSM) for gamma-ray burst emission makes a testable prediction: that the observed low-energy power-law photon number spectral index cannot exceed -2/3 (where the photon model is defined with a positive index: $dN/dE \propto E{alpha}$). We have collected time-resolved spectral fit parameters for over 100 bright bursts observed by the Burst And Transient Source Experiment on board the {\it Compton Gamma Ray Observatory}. Using this database, we find 23 bursts in which the spectral index limit of the SSM is violated, We discuss elements of the analysis methodology that affect the robustness of this result, as well as some of the escape hatches left for the SSM by theory.

Preece, Robert D.↗

A Simple Physical Optics Algorithm Perfect for Parallel Computing

One of the simplest reflector antenna computer programs is based upon a discrete approximation of the radiation integral. This calculation replaces the actual reflector surface with a triangular facet representation so that the reflector resembles a geodesic dome. The Physical Optics (PO) current is assumed to be constant in magnitude and phase over each facet so the radiation integral is reduced to a simple summation. This program has proven to be surprisingly robust and useful for the analysis of arbitrary reflectors, particularly when the near-field is desired and surface derivatives are not known. Because of its simplicity, the algorithm has proven to be extremely easy to adapt to the parallel computing architecture of a modest number of large-grain computing elements such as are used in the Intel iPSC and Touchstone Delta parallel machines.

Imbriale, W. A.↗

Robust Bioinformatics Recognition with VLSI Biochip Microsystem

A microsystem architecture for real-time, on-site, robust bioinformatic patterns recognition and analysis has been proposed. This system is compatible with on-chip DNA analysis means such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR)amplification. A corresponding novel artificial neural network (ANN) learning algorithm using new sigmoid-logarithmic transfer function based on error backpropagation (EBP) algorithm is invented. Our results show the trained new ANN can recognize low fluorescence patterns better than the conventional sigmoidal ANN does. A differential logarithmic imaging chip is designed for calculating logarithm of relative intensities of fluorescence signals. The single-rail logarithmic circuit and a prototype ANN chip are designed, fabricated and characterized.

bioinformatics↗

The X-43A Six Degree of Freedom Monte Carlo Analysis

This report provides an overview of the Hyper-X research vehicle Monte Carlo analysis conducted with the six-degree-of-freedom simulation. The methodology and model uncertainties used for the Monte Carlo analysis are presented as permitted. In addition, the process used to select hardware validation test cases from the Monte Carlo data is described. The preflight Monte Carlo analysis indicated that the X-43A control system was robust to the preflight uncertainties and provided the Hyper-X project an important indication that the vehicle would likely be successful in accomplishing the mission objectives. The X-43A in-flight performance is compared to the preflight Monte Carlo predictions and shown to exceed the Monte Carlo bounds in several instances. Possible modeling shortfalls are presented that may account for these discrepancies. The flight control laws and guidance algorithms were robust enough as a result of the preflight Monte Carlo analysis that the unexpected in-flight performance did not have undue consequences. Modeling and Monte Carlo analysis lessons learned are presented.

Baumann, Ethan↗

The X-43A Six Degree of Freedom Monte Carlo Analysis

This report provides an overview of the Hyper-X research vehicle Monte Carlo analysis conducted with the six-degree-of-freedom simulation. The methodology and model uncertainties used for the Monte Carlo analysis are presented as permitted. In addition, the process used to select hardware validation test cases from the Monte Carlo data is described. The preflight Monte Carlo analysis indicated that the X-43A control system was robust to the preflight uncertainties and provided the Hyper-X project an important indication that the vehicle would likely be successful in accomplishing the mission objectives. The X-43A inflight performance is compared to the preflight Monte Carlo predictions and shown to exceed the Monte Carlo bounds in several instances. Possible modeling shortfalls are presented that may account for these discrepancies. The flight control laws and guidance algorithms were robust enough as a result of the preflight Monte Carlo analysis that the unexpected in-flight performance did not have undue consequences. Modeling and Monte Carlo analysis lessons learned are presented.

Baumann, Ethan↗

EZDESIT: A Computer Program for Structural Element Sizing and Vehicle Weight Prediction

A method is presented for formulating stiffness terms and thermal coefficients of fiber reinforced composite, stiffened panels for input to finite element analysis (FEA). The method is robust enough to handle panels with general cross sectional shapes, including those which are unsymmetric and/or unbalanced. New thermal coefficients are introduced to quantify panel response from through-the-thickness temperature gradients. Equations are defined for stiffness, thermal expansion, and thermal bending that consider the full complement of membrane, bending, membrane-bending coupling, and transverse shear behavior. A technique of implementing this capability with a single plane of shell finite elements using the MSC/NASTRAN™ FEA program is revealed. Finally, an example of a composite, hat-stiffened panel is included to demonstrate errors that occur when an unsymmetric panel is symmetrically formulated as traditionally done. These erroneous values and the correct ones produced from the presented method are listed for the panel's stiffness matrices, thermal expansion and bending vectors, and the forces and moments that are thermally induced from in-plane and through-the-thickness temperature gradients.

Jeffrey A Cerro↗

An Analysis of Spacecraft Localization from Descent Image Data for Pinpoint Landing on Mars and other Cratered Bodies Data Acquisition

A pinpoint landing capability will be a critical component for many planned NASA missions to Mars and beyond. Implicit in the requirement is the ability to accurately localize the spacecraft with respect to the terrain during descent. In this paper, we present evidence that a vision-based solution using craters as landmarks is both practical and will meet the requirements of next generation missions. Our emphasis in this paper is on the feasibility of such a system in terms of (a) localization accuracy and (b) applicability to Martian terrain. We show that accuracy of well under 100 meters can be expected under suitable conditions. We also present a sensitivity analysis that makes an explicit connection between input data and robustness of our pose estimate. In addition, we present an analysis of the susceptibility of our technique to inherently ambiguous configurations of craters. We show that probability of failure due to such ambiguity is becoming increasingly small.

landforms↗

An Alternative Flight Software Trigger Paradigm: Applying Multivariate Logistic Regression to Sense Trigger Conditions using Inaccurate or Scarce Information

In late 2014, NASA will fly the Orion capsule on a Delta IV-Heavy rocket for the Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) mission. For EFT-1, the Orion capsule will be flying with a new GPS receiver and new navigation software. Given the experimental nature of the flight, the flight software must be robust to the loss of GPS measurements. Once the high-speed entry is complete, the drogue parachutes must be deployed within the proper conditions to stabilize the vehicle prior to deploying the main parachutes. When GPS is available in nominal operations, the vehicle will deploy the drogue parachutes based on an altitude trigger. However, when GPS is unavailable, the navigated altitude errors become excessively large, driving the need for a backup barometric altimeter. In order to increase overall robustness, the vehicle also has an alternate method of triggering the drogue parachute deployment based on planet-relative velocity if both the GPS and the barometric altimeter fail. However, this velocity-based trigger results in large altitude errors relative to the targeted altitude. Motivated by this challenge, this paper demonstrates how logistic regression may be employed to automatically generate robust triggers based on statistical analysis. Logistic regression is used as a ground processor pre-flight to develop a classifier. The classifier would then be implemented in flight software and executed in real-time. This technique offers excellent performance even in the face of highly inaccurate measurements. Although the logistic regression-based trigger approach will not be implemented within EFT-1 flight software, the methodology can be carried forward for future missions and vehicles.

Smith, Kelly M.↗

An Alternative Flight Software Trigger Paradigm: Applying Multivariate Logistic Regression to Sense Trigger Conditions Using Inaccurate or Scarce Information

In late 2014, NASA will fly the Orion capsule on a Delta IV-Heavy rocket for the Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) mission. For EFT-1, the Orion capsule will be flying with a new GPS receiver and new navigation software. Given the experimental nature of the flight, the flight software must be robust to the loss of GPS measurements. Once the high-speed entry is complete, the drogue parachutes must be deployed within the proper conditions to stabilize the vehicle prior to deploying the main parachutes. When GPS is available in nominal operations, the vehicle will deploy the drogue parachutes based on an altitude trigger. However, when GPS is unavailable, the navigated altitude errors become excessively large, driving the need for a backup barometric altimeter to improve altitude knowledge. In order to increase overall robustness, the vehicle also has an alternate method of triggering the parachute deployment sequence based on planet-relative velocity if both the GPS and the barometric altimeter fail. However, this backup trigger results in large altitude errors relative to the targeted altitude. Motivated by this challenge, this paper demonstrates how logistic regression may be employed to semi-automatically generate robust triggers based on statistical analysis. Logistic regression is used as a ground processor pre-flight to develop a statistical classifier. The classifier would then be implemented in flight software and executed in real-time. This technique offers improved performance even in the face of highly inaccurate measurements. Although the logistic regression-based trigger approach will not be implemented within EFT-1 flight software, the methodology can be carried forward for future missions and vehicles.

Smith, Kelly M.↗

An Alternative Flight Software Paradigm: Applying Multivariate Logistic Regression to Sense Trigger Conditions using Inaccurate or Scarce Information

In late 2014, NASA will fly the Orion capsule on a Delta IV-Heavy rocket for the Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) mission. For EFT-1, the Orion capsule will be flying with a new GPS receiver and new navigation software. Given the experimental nature of the flight, the flight software must be robust to the loss of GPS measurements. Once the high-speed entry is complete, the drogue parachutes must be deployed within the proper conditions to stabilize the vehicle prior to deploying the main parachutes. When GPS is available in nominal operations, the vehicle will deploy the drogue parachutes based on an altitude trigger. However, when GPS is unavailable, the navigated altitude errors become excessively large, driving the need for a backup barometric altimeter to improve altitude knowledge. In order to increase overall robustness, the vehicle also has an alternate method of triggering the parachute deployment sequence based on planet-relative velocity if both the GPS and the barometric altimeter fail. However, this backup trigger results in large altitude errors relative to the targeted altitude. Motivated by this challenge, this paper demonstrates how logistic regression may be employed to semi-automatically generate robust triggers based on statistical analysis. Logistic regression is used as a ground processor pre-flight to develop a statistical classifier. The classifier would then be implemented in flight software and executed in real-time. This technique offers improved performance even in the face of highly inaccurate measurements. Although the logistic regression-based trigger approach will not be implemented within EFT-1 flight software, the methodology can be carried forward for future missions and vehicles

Smith, Kelly↗

Composite Stiffened Panels: Part I - Stiffness, Thermal Expansion, and Thermal Bending Formulation for Finite Element Analysis

A method is presented for formulating stiffness terms and thermal coefficients of fiber-reinforced composite, stiffened panels for input to finite element analysis (FEA). The method is robust enough to handle panels with general cross sectional shapes, including those which are unsymmetric and/or unbalanced. New thermal coefficients are introduced to quantify panel response from through-the-thickness temperature gradients. Equations are defined for stiffness, thermal expansion, and thermal bending that consider the full complement of membrane, bending, membrane-bending coupling, and transverse shear behavior. A technique of implementing this capability with a single plane of shell finite elements using the MSC/NASTRAN(TradeMark) FEA program is revealed. Finally, an example of a composite, hat-stiffened panel is included to demonstrate errors that occur when an unsymmetric panel is symmetrically formulated as traditionally done. These erroneous values and the correct ones produced from the presented method are listed for the panel's stiffness matrices, thermal expansion and bending vectors, and the forces and moments that are thermally induced from in-plane and through-the-thickness temperature gradients.

Craig S Collier↗