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Computational Models of Trustworthiness and Trust in Autonomous Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper, we propose an approach to developing a concept of actionable trust in multi-agent,cyber-physical-human systems in safety-critical and time-critical environment of air transportation. Actionable trust requires computational models of trustworthiness and trust, for use during system design and in real time, during operations. We describe the models, examine their computability and scalability, as well as what remains to be done.

Autonomous Systems↗

Survey of Methods for Assessing Safety Compliance of sUAS BVLOS Operations

To ensure the safety of small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) Beyond Line of Sight (BVLOS) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), the FAA offers a guideline on how sUAS operators can demonstrate compliance with FAA rules, including regulations, advisory circulars, policy statements, and acceptable means of compliance (AMOC), using a formal and top-down approach. According to FAA Advisory Circular 23.2010-1, the AMOC refers to “one method, but not the only method, to show compliance with a regulatory requirement.” It is common for regulations to include a performance and safety standard rather than a detailed design or operation requirement, which allows for flexibility in fulfilling the regulatory requirements while still achieving a predetermined level of safety. This technical report explores existing frameworks for sUAS BVLOS safety analysis. It begins by discussing how sUAS BVLOS operations can be strategically deconflicted and then discusses their hazards. The next step is to establish safety assessment methods commonly used by the aviation industry and the FAA, illustrate how these methods can be applied to several safety-critical air traffic systems, and list collision models that the FAA and industry use. This investigation documents the processes for assessing safety risks in sUAS BVLOS operations and will allow sUAS BVLOS operations to be assessed for safety compliance more efficiently.

sUAS BVLOS Operations↗

Sludge Removal: Success and Partnership with T Plant - 20510

U.S. DOE contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company (CHPRC) has safely and efficiently managed the removal of highly radioactive sludge from the 105-K West Reactor fuel storage basin (105- KW Basin) near the Columbia River. In mid-September 2019, sludge retrieval was completed after 21 storage containers were safely loaded with highly radioactive sludge and transported approximately 13 miles from the 105-KW Basin to T Plant, located in the 200 West Area on the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Sludge removal represents the last major source term reduction necessary before the K West Reactor and fuel storage basin can transition to closure activities in preparation for final deactivation and demolition. The technical complexity of the sludge retrieval process, coupled with the challenging physical and radiological characteristics of the waste, necessitated a methodical and deliberate approach using unique design and operational solutions to safely conduct the work. This challenge was further complicated by the need to plan and conduct the work in two separate facilities, each subject to the controls and requirements of its own nuclear facility safety basis. The project overcame these challenges through creating an integrated team that actively engaged, communicated and coordinated each phase of the project to ensure successful completion. This paper will cover how these key elements of the Sludge Removal Project led to its success: - Integrating project planning and management; - Lessons learned from design and construction; - Preparing for a successful campaign (lessons learned from testing and start-up); - Lessons learned from operating in two separate facilities, transporting sludge containers on the Hanford Site and ensuring compliance with a range of regulatory and safety basis requirements. The establishment of an integrated group spanning two facilities and multiple organizations created a team capable of overcoming the challenges necessary to successfully plan and execute the sludge retrieval mission. Sharing lessons learned from this successful project can enhance the ability of teams across the DOE complex to successfully plan and execute complex projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program

Breakdown of the DOE Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program. Including discussion topics on TRISO technology Status Circa 2000, New Production Reactor (NPR) Fuel Experience, Fuel Qualification, US DOE Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program, Initial AGR Program Reference HTGR Design, Fuel Qualification Approach, Fuel Performance Modeling, Fuel Fabrication, Selected AGR-1, AGR-2, and AGR-5/6/7 Fuel Property Means, AGR Program TRISO Fuel Key Performance Data, Irradiation Performance: Fission Gas R/B, Irradiation Testing Results, Kernel and Coating Behavior During Irradiation, Locating and Studying Failed Particles Greatly Improves Understanding of Fuel Performance, Fission Product Release from UCO Fuel Compacts: AGR-1 and AGR-2 Examples, HTGR Accident Safety Testing of TRISO Fuel, Evaluating Behavior During D-LOFC Accidents, Safety Test Results for US UCO Fuel, Particle Failure Evaluation, Fuel Performance Summary, Ongoing Work and Outstanding Data Needs, Core Oxidation, Industry Engagement, and Coated-Particle-Fueled Reactor Concepts and Fuel Designs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Adopting an Objectives-Driven Assurance Case Approach for Achieving Space Flight Mission Planetary Protection Objectives

Traditionally, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has utilized prescriptive technical and process requirements to ensure safety and mission assurance performance objectives for planetary protection are achieved during space flight missions. While prescriptive requirements may be easier to communicate and manage throughout the systems engineering process, the highly constrained nature of prescriptive requirements can limit the ability to take advantage of cost-saving opportunities and offer limited ability to explore other options or alternative designs, processes, and methods. It can also be difficult to develop prescriptive requirements for objectives that are probabilistic in nature or that cannot be satisfied by direct verification. In contrast, the development of an assurance case allows for a compelling, comprehensible, and valid argument to be developed with supporting evidence that shows safety and mission assurance objectives have been satisfied. Analogous to how patent applications are constructed for inventions, an assurance case has a high-level claim of meeting a safety and mission assurance objective, followed by a more specific set of sub-claims and technical evidence which supports the claims. The objectives-driven assurance case approach allows for a better understanding and exploration of the trade space, more flexibility to balance trades, and the ability to realize and implement technical and process innovations for resource, time, and cost savings. The assurance case is a living case that evolves over the entire program life cycle. Recently, NASA’s Office of Planetary Protection (OPP) has adopted the assurance case approach as an acceptable methodology for demonstrating avoidance of contamination of target solar system bodies explored by NASA space flight missions. This methodology has been incorporated into NASA’s new technical standard for planetary protection and is currently being utilized by the Mars Sample Return campaign for safe sample containment during sample return.

Assurance Case↗

A Practical Approach of Mining Operational Risks in Cigeo - A field-test - 19349

Andra is currently completing the detailed engineering phase of the stepwise design development of Cigeo (the French HLW and IL-LLW Deep Geological Repository, aka DGR). Various technical issues are at stake, including the risk management requirements linked to the safety of 'Mining Operations' (i.e. occupational safety issues related to underground excavation/dismantling works at some 500 m of depth), at different stages of the DGR life cycle (i.e. from its construction start-up to its final closure and future monitoring/or conversely a decision of waste retrieval). These occupational safety requirements have a significant impact on Cigeo's design, its progressive construction and later closure. On a shorter term, one must demonstrate that the design bases are technically sound and that the solutions selected (to build, operate, close the DGR infrastructures or conversely retrieve the waste) are both feasible and safe. In that sense (and following an identification of operational risks during construction), Andra focused on two sensitive cases: - The construction of large diameter drift crossings, in particular those related to the connection between a transfer drift (main) and a IL-LLW disposal vault (i.e. during construction operations), - The partial dismantling of a drift concrete lining (made of concrete segment rings, erected and placed by a TBM) at time of construction of a horizontal seal (i.e. during closure operations). The discussion starts with a description of the geotechnical conditions prevailing at the (French) Bure site, in the Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone formation. Then the paper presents the Cigeo underground architecture (at large) and the specific structural choices made (at the end of the detailed engineering phase) for drifts, disposal vaults and seals. The discussion on construction - deconstruction challenges for each of the critical issues cited above provides an opportunity to explain the operational sequences (and how the methodology selected enables to reduce the risks). The following part of the paper focuses the technological demonstration (an in-situ test to be planned in detail) of a partial dismantling of the concrete segments rings forming the support lining of two tunnels previously built in the Meuse/Haute-Marne URL (Underground Research Laboratory) infrastructures, combined with the construction of a specific drift crossing. In this dismantling and construction test, the technical demonstration objective is three-fold: - The capacity to lay down compressible arch segments and support (by bolts and mesh) the rock after the lining removal, - The capacity to excavate and line the drift crossing, - The structural / geomechanical behavior (evolution with time) of the rock and lining compared with that of 'neighboring' zones. This paper provides a timeline of the tests. Should the results obtained deliver some positive perspectives of technical feasibility (and convincing operational safety) Andra will incorporate this dismantling/construction solution in the 'design freeze' of the DGR underground infrastructures. The positive outcomes of this technical test campaign will also provide 'elements of proof' for the instruction of the Cigeo licensing (a process likely to take place between 2020 and 2024) by the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

GPM Timeline Inhibits For IT Processing

The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool was created as one approach to capturing and understanding inhibits and controls from IT through launch. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission, which launched from Japan in March 2014, was a joint mission under a partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). GPM was one of the first NASA Goddard in-house programs that extensively used software controls. Using this tool during the GPM buildup allowed a thorough review of inhibit and safety critical software design for hazardous subsystems such as the high gain antenna boom, solar array, and instrument deployments, transmitter turn-on, propulsion system release, and instrument radar turn-on. The GPM safety team developed a methodology to document software safety as part of the standard hazard report. As a result of this process, a new tool safety inhibit timeline was created for management of inhibits and their controls during spacecraft buildup and testing during IT at GSFC and at the launch range in Japan. The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool was a pathfinder approach for reviewing software that controls the electrical inhibits. The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool strengthens the Safety Analysts understanding of the removal of inhibits during the IT process with safety critical software. With this tool, the Safety Analyst can confirm proper safe configuration of a spacecraft during each IT test, track inhibit and software configuration changes, and assess software criticality. In addition to understanding inhibits and controls during IT, the tool allows the Safety Analyst to better communicate to engineers and management the changes in inhibit states with each phase of hardware and software testing and the impact of safety risks. Lessons learned from participating in the GPM campaign at NASA and JAXA will be discussed during this session.

Inhibits↗

Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessment - Three Approaches to A Common Objective

Safety adequacy assessment is central to nuclear power plant (NPP) licensing. Either NPP accident mitigation or prevention can result in adequate safety. Accident prevention, along with the the prevention of accident escalation, can be evaluated using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. Acceptable means to develop principal design criteria (PDCs) via probabilistic methods are provided in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.233 while advanced reactor design criteria are provided in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.232 (RG 1.232). Accident mitigation-based regulatory guidance for non-power reactors is provided in NUREG 1537. While RG 1.232 included class specific guidance for both sodium-cooled fast reactors and modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, it did not provide molten salt reactor (MSR) class specific guidance. Class specific design criteria more closely align with reactors in their class so will require less effort to employ to develop design specific PDCs. The American Nuclear Society has recently released a liquid-fueled MSR design safety standard (ANSI/ANS-20.2-2023) that provides class specific design criteria.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Innovative Hot Lab Concept for Advanced D and D Application - 19175

Hot Labs are used in the nuclear industry for various purposes: maintenance of nuclear reactor, sampling and testing of fuel, inspection activities and decommissioning. Despite their vast use, their current designs and operations do not meet entirely today's needs and requirements of the operations nor tomorrow's. This paper will give an overview of the research and investigations performed around Hot Cells design and concept in order to integrate new operability modes and functions. The overall idea is to bring modularity, flexibility and adaptability to the Hot Lab nuclear industry. Taking the key principles of Model Based System Engineering, an interoperable data model, the most advanced digital technologies (Building Information Modelling - BIM, Virtual Reality / Augmented Reality, Artificial Intelligence), and looking at all the life-cycle of such a facility, a concept design of a new type of Hot Lab has been developed. Four mains aspects are implemented during this study: Implement the principles of the Industry 4.0; use modular and flexible solutions; explore the concept of in service maintenance and predictive maintenance; optimise the decommissioning and dismantling process by taking into account the entire life-cycle of the facility. The design was developed as a case study taking several assumptions to adapt to any project. The design developed demonstrates that modularity and flexibility can be brought in without compromising the core safety functions of such a facility. This Hot Lab concept brings the current Hot Lab to the next level as the design has been adapted to meet the current operational needs, implement novel ideas and consider its entire life-cycle. This paper will demonstrate how decommissioning and dismantling operations can become more efficient and safer with such a concept. In addition, the Model Based System Engineering approach used from the beginning of the design phase allows to have an optimum architecture during its entire lifetime. It also allowed to flag new topics to be further developed for the benefit of the nuclear industry as a whole. A first example would be the development of the Control System using digital tools and artificial intelligence to run remotely controlled equipment inside the Hot Lab. Assystem is an international engineering group. As a key participant in the nuclear industry for over 50 years, the Group supports its clients in managing their capital expenditure throughout their asset life-cycles. Assystem can offer support in project management, design, digital engineering, industrial control systems, security and safety and industrial digitalisation. Assystem's Imagine program is an internal program intending to serve as an incubator for the development of innovations. The Innovative Hot Lab project integrates one of the four innovation projects Assystem choose to develop and invest in. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low Enriched Uranium U-10Mo Fuel Design Parameters

Activities to convert the HFIR from HEU to LEU are ongoing as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities to study the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a uranium-molybdenum (U-10Mo) monolithic alloy fuel. This high-density alloy contains 90 wt % uranium and 10 wt % molybdenum and has a uranium density of 15.318gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several candidate HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools and design methods enabled a thorough analysis of the available design space with U-10Mo fuel. A surrogate model used this analysis as training data to quickly determine the performance of a design given specific design parameters. An optimization module used this surrogate model to quickly search this multidimensional search space given specific desired performance characteristics. This approach was made possible by the large available design space with U-10Mo fuel. Shift, a Monte Carlo tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, was used for faster calculation and better data management for reactor physics simulations. Once most of these design studies were complete, a new suite called the Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME) was developed to connect all fuel design analysis steps, making design studies more efficient and reproducible. The post-processing capabilities of these new tools are leveraged for the information provided herein. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected with varying levels of feature complexity and reactor performance. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU U-10Mo fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities, are provided. Simulations show that the high uranium density of U-10Mo fuel provides a large potential design space that enables various LEU designs to meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements with a power increase from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW or 100 MW (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Heterogeneous oxidation of hydrogen-natural gas blends in a safe, clean, and efficient burner design

The growth of hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel for fulfilling thermal energy needs of multiple economic sectors globally requires access to reliable, safe, energy efficient, emission free combustion technology. The work described in this short communication shows the applicability of a novel heterogeneous combustion design in utilizing a wide range of hydrogen blended methane concentrations to cleanly and safely generate thermal energy. The utilization of a simple first principles design approach along with engineered materials yielded a fuel-flexible hybrid infrared-convection burner design capable of lowering NOx emissions by more than 95% while simultaneously improving the heat transfer efficiency by 15% with a wide range of hydrogen concentrations. Here, the safety and performance of the combustion design was demonstrated in an burner at capacities of up to 12,000 Btu/h in producing temperatures of 900 °C. The atmospheric burner concept was integrated in a cooktop configuration with combined thermal power rating of 30,000 Btu/h and operated with hydrogen blended natural gas.

08 HYDROGEN↗

IAEA CRP on HTGR Uncertainties in Modeling: Assessment of Phase I Lattice to Core Model Uncertainties

Best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis of reactors is replacing the traditional conservative (stacked uncertainty) method for safety and licensing analysis. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications, a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied. High temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs) have several features that require techniques not used in light-water reactor analysis (e.g., coated-particle design and large graphite quantities at high temperatures). The International Atomic Energy Agency has therefore launched the Coordinated Research Project on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling to study uncertainty propagation in the HTGR analysis chain. The benchmark problem defined for the prismatic design is represented by the General Atomics Modular HTGR 350. The main focus of this report is the compilation and discussion of the results obtained for various permutations of Exercise I 2c and the use of the cross section data in Exercise II 1a of the prismatic benchmark, which is defined as the last and first steps of the lattice and core simulation phases, respectively. The report summarizes the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) best estimate results obtained for Exercise I 2a (fresh single-fuel block), Exercise I 2b (depleted single-fuel block), and Exercise I 2c (super cell) in addition to the first results of an investigation into the cross section generation effects for the super-cell problem. The two dimensional deterministic code known as the New ESC based Weighting Transport (NEWT) included in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) 6.1.2 package was used for the cross section evaluation, and the results obtained were compared to the three dimensional stochastic SCALE module KENO VI. The NEWT cross section libraries were generated for several permutations of the current benchmark super-cell geometry and were then provided as input to the Phase II core calculation of the stand alone neutronics Exercise II 1a. The steady state core calculations were simulated with the INL coupled-code system known as the Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for INL Code System (PHISICS) and the system thermal-hydraulics code known as the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP) 5 3D using the nuclear data libraries previously generated with NEWT. It was observed that significant differences in terms of multiplication factor and neutron flux exist between the various permutations of the Phase I super-cell lattice calculations. The use of these cross section libraries only leads to minor changes in the Phase II core simulation results for fresh fuel but shows significantly larger discrepancies for spent fuel cores. Furthermore, large incongruities were found between the SCALE NEWT and KENO VI results for the super cells, and while some trends could be identified, a final conclusion on this issue could not yet be reached. This report will be revised in mid 2016 with more detailed analyses of the super-cell problems and their effects on the core models, using the latest version of SCALE (6.2). The super-cell models seem to show substantial improvements in terms of neutron flux as compared to single-block models, particularly at thermal energies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Coolant passage heat transfer with rotation. A progress report on the computational aspects

Turbine airfoils are subjected to increasingly higher heat loads which escalate the cooling requirements in order to satisfy life goals for the component materials. If turbine efficiency is to be maintained, however, cooling requirements should be as low as possible. To keep the quantity of cooling air bounded, a more efficient internal cooling scheme must be developed. One approach is to employ airfoils with multipass cooling passages that contain devices to augment internal heat transfer while limiting pressure drop. Design experience with multipass cooling passage airfoils has shown that a surplus of cooling air must be provided as a margin of safety. This increased cooling air leads to a performance penalty. Reliable methods for predicting the internal thermal and aerodynamic performance of multipass cooling passage airfoils would reduce or eliminate the need for the safety margin of surplus cooling air. The objective of the program is to develop and verify improved analytical methods that will form the basis for design technology which will result in efficient turbine components with improved durability without sacrificing performance. The objective will be met by: (1) establishing a comprehensive experimental data base that can form the basis of an empirical design system; (2) developing computational fluid dynamic techniques; and (3) analyzing the information in the data base with both phenomenological modeling and mathematical modeling to derive a suitable design and analysis procedure.

Aceto, L. D.↗

The Space Station Freedom Flight Telerobotic Servicer - The design and evolution of a dexterous space robot

The Flight Telerobotic Servicer (FTS) will provide a telerobotic capability to the Space Station in the early assembly phases of the program and will be used for assembly, maintenance, and inspection throughout the lifetime of the Station. Here, the FTS design approach to the development of autonomous capabilities is discussed. The FTS telerobotic workstations for the Shuttle and Space Station, and facility for on-orbit storage are examined. The rationale of the FTS with regard to ease of operation, operational versatility, maintainability, safety, and control is discussed.

Mccain, Harry G.↗

Selection and Assessment of Predictions of the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site

The successful landing of the Mars Pathfinder spacecraft on Mars allows the review of the process of selecting the landing site and assessing predictions made for the site based on Viking and Earth-based data. Selection of the landing site for Mars Pathfinder was a two-phase process. The first phase took place from October 1993 to June 1994 and involved: initial identification of engineering constraints, definition of environmental conditions at the site for spacecraft design, and evaluation of the scientific potential of different landing sites. This phase culminated with the first "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop", held at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas on April 18-19, 1994, in which suggested approaches and landing sites were solicited from the entire scientific community. A preliminary site was selected by the project for design purposes in June 1994. The second phase took place from July 1994 to March 1996 and involved: developing criteria for evaluating site safety using images and remote sensing data, testing of the spacecraft and landing subsystems (with design improvements) to establish quantitative engineering constraints on landing site characteristics, evaluating all potential landing sites on Mars, and certification of the site by the project. This phase included a second open workshop, "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop II: Characteristics of the Ares Vallis Region and Field Trips in the Channeled Scabland, Washington" held in Spokane and Moses Lake September 24-30, 1995 and formal acceptance of the site by NASA Headquarters. Engineering constraints on Pathfinder landing sites were developed from the initial design of the spacecraft and the entry, descent and landing scenario. The site must be within 5 degrees of the subsolar latitude at the time of landing (15N for maximum solar power and flexible communications with Earth. It also must be below 0 km elevation to enable enough time for the parachute to bring the lander to the proper terminal velocity for landing. The entire landing ellipse, which is 70 km by 200 km due to navigational, ephemeris and atmospheric uncertainties, must be free of steep slopes, scarps and obvious hazards in Viking orbiter images, have acceptable radar reflectivity, moderate rock abundances and have little or no dust. Scientific considerations of the Mars Pathfinder payload and mission indicate that analyses of "grab bag" samples at the mouths of outflow channels can offer a first order assessment of a variety of rock types on Mars. Highland sites offer the advantage of in situ analysis of ancient rocks on Mars that record crustal differentiation and the nature of the early environment. Dark gray sites offer the potential of analyzing unweathered and unoxidized materials. Following a general assessment of the safety of different sites, a preliminary selection of a "grab bag" site was made. This site, Ares Vallis, is near the mouth of an outflow channel that may contain ancient Noachian terrain, Hesperian ridged plains, and reworked channel materials. All potential landing sites on Mars that met basic safety criteria were analyzed in detail. Sites (100 by 200 km target ellipses) were considered safe if they were below 0 km elevation, were free of obvious hazards (high relief surface features) in high-resolution (< 50 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and had acceptable reflectivity and roughness at radar wavelengths, high thermal inertia, moderate rock abundance, low red to violet ratio, and low albedo. Only 4 sites on Mars met all the above criteria, which included 1995 opposition 3.5 cm delay-Doppler radar data. Complete data were evaluated for 7 sites and the Viking landing sites for comparison for all the above criteria as well as crater abundance, hill and mesa abundance, slopes over meter to kilometer scales, low altitude winds (from global circulation models and slopes), the size-frequency distribution of large rocks, as well as rover trafficability and science potential. Discussion of potential hazards at Ares Vallis using a variety of data sets (including radar) at a second open workshop, indicated this site cannot be shown to be any more hazardous than the Viking landing sites. Field trips to the Channeled Scabland and the Ephrata Fan, analogs for Ares Vallis and the landing site, respectively, provided valuable insight into possible geologic processes and potential surface characteristics. Three sites met all the data requirements and safety criteria for landing Pathfinder. Ares Vallis was selected by the project because it appeared acceptably safe (although it appeared to have greater rock abundances than other sites, its elevation was likely the best known) and offered the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types expected to be deposited by catastrophic floods, which would enable addressing first-order scientific questions such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early martian environment and its subsequent evolution. The selection was reviewed by an external board at a number of meetings and accepted, and the site was approved by NASA Headquarters. Data gathered by the Pathfinder lander' and rover provides the opportunity to test the predictions made for the site in the selection process based on remote observations from Earth, orbit, and the surface. The discussion below is taken from Golombek et al. to which the reader is referred for a more complete discussion and a complete list of references, which are omitted here for brevity. Many characteristics of the landing site are consistent with its being shaped and deposited by the Ares and Tiu catastrophic floods. The rocky surface is consistent a depositional plain comprising semi-rounded pebbles, cobbles and tabular boulders (some of which appear imbricated and/or inclined in the direction of flow) that appear similar to depositional plains in terrestrial catastrophic floods. The Twin Peaks appear to be streamlined hills in lander images, which is consistent with interpretations of larger hills in Viking orbiter images of the region that suggest the lander is on the flank of a broad, gentle ridge trending northeast from Twin Peaks. This ridge, which is the rise to the north of the lander, is aligned in the downstream direction from the Ares and Tiu Valles floods, and may be a debris tail deposited in the wake of the Twin Peaks. Channels visible throughout the scene may be a result of late stage drainage. As predicted by delay-Doppler radar measurements and tracking results, the average elevation of the center of the site was about the same as Viking Lander I relative to the 6.1 mbar geoid. The Doppler tracking and two-way ranging estimate for the elevation of the spacecraft is only 45 in lower than the Viking I Lander and within 100 in of that expected, which is within the uncertainties of the measurements. After landing, surface pressures and winds (5-10 m/s) were found to be similar to expectations based on Viking data, although temperatures were about 10 K warmer. The temperature profile below 50 km was also roughly 20 K warmer. As a result, predicted densities were 5% higher near the surface and up to 40% lower at 50 km but within the entry, descent and landing design margins. The populations of craters and small hills and the slopes of the hills measured in high-resolution (38 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and the radar derived slopes of the landing site are all consistent with observations of these properties in the lander images. A rocky surface was expected from Viking Infra-Red Thermal Mapper (IRTM) observations and comparisons with the Viking landing sites. The observed cumulative fraction of area covered by rocks with diameters greater than 3 cm and heights greater than 0.5 in (potentially hazardous to landing) at Ares is similar to that predicted by IRTM observations and models of Viking lander and Earth analog rock size-frequency distributions. The IRTM prediction postulated an effective thermal inertia of 30 (10(exp -3) cgs units - cal/cubic cm/s(exp 0.5)/K) for the rock population, but we obtain a slightly different effective thermal inertia for the actual rock population. The validity of interpretations of radar echoes prior to landing are supported by a simple radar echo model, an estimate of the reflectivity of the soil from its bulk density, and the fraction of area covered by rocks. In the calculations, the soil produces the quasi-specular echo and the rocks produce the diffuse echo. The derived quasispecular cross section is comparable to the cross-sections and reflectivities reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. The model yields a diffuse echo that is modestly larger than the polarized diffuse echo reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. At 12.5-cm wavelength, similar rock populations at Ares and the Viking I site were expected because the diffuse echoes are comparable, but the large normal reflectivities suggests that bulk densities of the soils at depth are greater than those at the surface. We also obtain a fine-component inertia near 8.4 which agrees with the fine-component inertia of 8.7 (in 10(exp -3) cgs units) estimated from thermal observations from orbit by the IRTM; for this estimate, we used a bulk thermal inertia of 10.4 for the landing site, an effective thermal inertia near 40 (10(exp -3) cgs units) for the rock population, and a graphical representation of Kieffer's model. Color and albedo data for Ares suggested surfaces of materials at Ares Vallis would be relatively dust free or unweathered prior to landing compared with the materials at the Viking landing sites. This suggestion is supported by the abundance of relatively dark-gray rocks at Ares and their relative rarity at the Viking landing sites, where rocks are commonly coated with bright red dust. Finally, the 40 km long Ephrata Fan of the Channeled Scabland in Washington state, which was deposited where c

Golombek, M. P.↗

Service Life Extension of the Propulsion System of Long-Term Manned Orbital Stations

One of the critical non-replaceable systems of a long-term manned orbital station is the propulsion system. Since the propulsion system operates beginning with the launch of station elements into orbit, its service life determines the service life of the station overall. Weighing almost a million pounds, the International Space Station (ISS) is about four times as large as the Russian space station Mir and about five times as large as the U.S. Skylab. Constructed over a span of more than a decade with the help of over 100 space flights, elements and modules of the ISS provide more research space than any spacecraft ever built. Originally envisaged for a service life of fifteen years, this Earth orbiting laboratory has been in orbit since 1998. Some elements that have been launched later in the assembly sequence were not yet built when the first elements were placed in orbit. Hence, some of the early modules that were launched at the inception of the program were already nearing the end of their design life when the ISS was finally ready and operational. To maximize the return on global investments on ISS, it is essential for the valuable research on ISS to continue as long as the station can be sustained safely in orbit. This paper describes the work performed to extend the service life of the ISS propulsion system. A system comprises of many components with varying failure rates. Reliability of a system is the probability that it will perform its intended function under encountered operating conditions, for a specified period of time. As we are interested in finding out how reliable a system would be in the future, reliability expressed as a function of time provides valuable insight. In a hypothetical bathtub shaped failure rate curve, the failure rate, defined as the number of failures per unit time that a currently healthy component will suffer in a given future time interval, decreases during infant-mortality period, stays nearly constant during the service life and increases at the end when the design service life ends and wear-out phase begins. However, the component failure rates do not remain constant over the entire cycle life. The failure rate depends on various factors such as design complexity, current age of the component, operating conditions, severity of environmental stress factors, etc. Development, qualification and acceptance test processes provide rigorous screening of components to weed out imperfections that might otherwise cause infant mortality failures. If sufficient samples are tested to failure, the failure time versus failure quantity can be analyzed statistically to develop a failure probability distribution function (PDF), a statistical model of the probability of failure versus time. Driven by cost and schedule constraints however, spacecraft components are generally not tested in large numbers. Uncertainties in failure rate and remaining life estimates increase when fewer units are tested. To account for this, spacecraft operators prefer to limit useful operations to a period shorter than the maximum demonstrated service life of the weakest component. Running each component to its failure to determine the maximum possible service life of a system can become overly expensive and impractical. Spacecraft operators therefore, specify the required service life and an acceptable factor of safety (FOS). The designers use these requirements to limit the life test duration. Midway through the design life, when benefits justify additional investments, supplementary life test may be performed to demonstrate the capability to safely extend the service life of the system. An innovative approach is required to evaluate the entire system, without having to go through an elaborate test program of propulsion system elements. Evaluating every component through a brute force test program would be a cost prohibitive and time consuming endeavor. ISS propulsion system components were designed and built decades ago. There are no representative ground test articles for some of the components. A 'test everything' approach would require manufacturing new test articles. The paper outlines some of the techniques used for selective testing, by way of cherry picking candidate components based on failure mode effects analysis, system level impacts, hazard analysis, etc. The type of testing required for extending the service life depends on the design and criticality of the component, failure modes and failure mechanisms, life cycle margin provided by the original certification, operational and environmental stresses encountered, etc. When specific failure mechanism being considered and the underlying relationship of that mode to the stresses provided in the test can be correlated by supporting analysis, time and effort required for conducting life extension testing can be significantly reduced. Exposure to corrosive propellants over long periods of time, for instance, lead to specific failure mechanisms in several components used in the propulsion system. Using Arrhenius model, which is tied to chemically dependent failure mechanisms such as corrosion or chemical reactions, it is possible to subject carefully selected test articles to accelerated life test. Arrhenius model reflects the proportional relationship between time to failure of a component and the exponential of the inverse of absolute temperature acting on the component. The acceleration factor is used to perform tests at higher stresses that allow direct correlation between the times to failure at a high test temperature to the temperatures to be expected in actual use. As long as the temperatures are such that new failure mechanisms are not introduced, this becomes a very useful method for testing to failure a relatively small sample of items for a much shorter amount of time. In this article, based on the example of the propulsion system of the first ISS module Zarya, theoretical approaches and practical activities of extending the service life of the propulsion system are reviewed with the goal of determining the maximum duration of its safe operation.

Kamath, Ulhas↗

Applications of Anomaly Detection and Precursor Identification in Airspace Operations

As we continue to advance the U.S. National Airspace into the next generation of air traffic, we face challenges in both increase in complexity, as well as, a significant growth in traffic volume. Addressing these challenges, while maintaining the same level of safety is an important application of data mining. Because of these significant shifts in airspace design and usage there is a need to identify current and emergent safety risks along with their potential precursors. In recent years NASA has made advancements in developing scalable methods to address this effort in the Big Data paradigm. Multiple kernel anomaly detection approaches have been employed on both surveillance radar data and flight operational quality assurance data to identify operationally significant safety risks. Additionally, events have been explored with a recently developed precursor identification tool to discover states that reveal an increased probability of a safety event. These tools can be used to discover emerging safety risks that may not be currently monitored, which allows for mitigation tactics to be employed and ultimately make the overall airspace safer. This talk will discuss an overview of these methods and a discussion of the findings.

anomaly detection↗