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DOE OSTI2025

Life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with nuclear power generation in the United States

Under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, tax credits of up to $3/kgH 2 are available to hydrogen producers if they generate emissions at levels below 0.45 kgCO 2 e/kgH 2 , spurring producers to explore how hydrogen production via electrolysis using electricity generated by nuclear power may qualify for such tax credits. With uranium as a primary fuel for nuclear power plants (NPPs) and no on-site emissions, the upstream emissions associated with nuclear fuel supply chains largely determine the carbon intensity of nuclear energy. Using the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model, we evaluated the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of uranium production and the use of uranium to generate electricity in light water reactor (LWR) NPPs. We evaluated the process chemicals and energy inputs throughout the nuclear fuel supply chain to identify the major contributors to nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Such emissions are estimated at 3.0 gCO 2 e/kWh at NPPs in the United States. The greatest share of nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions—comprising 53% of total emissions—are associated with electricity consumption throughout the fuel supply chain. We extended the analysis to include an evaluation of the carbon intensity of H 2 production via electrolysis using nuclear power from LWRs. Finally, we examined the impact of future (2035 and 2050) electricity supply chain scenarios on nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Our analysis revealed a decrease of 33% (2035) and 46% (2050) in the carbon intensity of nuclear electricity relative to current nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions.

greenhouse gas emissions↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cosmology intertwined: A review of the particle physics, astrophysics, and cosmology associated with the cosmological tensions and anomalies

The standard Λ Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model provides a good description of a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological data. However, there are a few big open questions that make the standard model look like an approximation to a more realistic scenario yet to be found. In this paper, we list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant H 0 , the σ 8 – S 8 tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the 5.0 σ tension between the Planck CMB estimate of the Hubble constant H 0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H 0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the Planck CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density Ω m , and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ( σ 8 , f σ 8 ). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the H 0 – S 8 tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals. Finally, we give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these open questions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy System Transitions and Low-Emission Pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, and United States

The Paris Agreement invited Parties to submit long-term, low-emission development strategies. This study presents national low-emission scenarios to inform such strategies for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Republic of Korea and the USA. The study uses country-level energy–economy and integrated assessment models (IAMs) that incorporate detailed and disaggregated representations of the energy demand and supply systems that are difficult to capture in global IAMs. Models were used to explore low-carbon pathways up to 2050, providing insights in their implications for country emissions, energy system restructuring, energy–economy indicators and system costs. The analysis shows that the low-carbon scenarios of most economies studied here are consistent with pathways limiting global warming to below 2 °C.

Fragkos, Panagiotis↗

DOE OSTI2026

Carbamoylation as an Effective Tool in the Analysis of the Soman Nerve Agent Marker Pinacolyl Alcohol in Soil Matrices by EI-GC-MS and LC-HRMS

Pinacolyl alcohol (PA) is a Schedule 2 chemical commonly featured in most proficiency tests (PTs) administered by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) due to its direct as well as forensic link to the nerve agent Soman. Therefore, its detection by Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) inspection teams during on-site investigations is a strong indicator of the past or latent presence of Soman in the environment. Its small molecular weight (102), early elution time, and poor ionization profile make PA a challenging analyte to detect particularly at low concentrations (∼1–10 μg/g). In this work, 1,1′-carbonyldimidazole (CDI) has been used to effectively modify PA for the first time in two different soil matrices (Virginia type A soil and silt sediment) at two separate concentrations (1 and 10 μg/g) for its subsequent detection by EI-GC-MS and LC-HRMS methods. For the EI-GC-MS analysis, the PA carbamate derivative (PIC) exhibits improved chromatography relative to PA such as improved peak shape, increased molecular weight (196 for PIC and 102 for PA) and increased retention time (16.9 min for PIC and ∼4.1 min for PA). In addition, the derivatization also improves the detection of PA by LC-HRMS as the PIC product possesses protonation sites (i.e., imidazole ring) relative to none exhibited by PA. More importantly, the carbamoylation proceeds under mild conditions (55 °C, no base) and rapidly (3 h), characteristics that make it an appealing protocol for the analysis of PA during OPCW PTs or real case scenarios particularly in instances where it is present at low concentrations. It is anticipated that the protocol can be applied to the forensic analysis of this important Soman marker in various environmental matrices.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity

Among other changes, variable renewable energy (VRE) - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - is achieving a growing share of total generation. High VRE penetrations may result in an increased level of curtailment and thus suppress the value of additional VRE. This VRE, that either would not be built due to price suppression or would be curtailed, can be considered a resource that we define as low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE). LDE could be used for various applications which value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors. Examples include electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. This report provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential LDE resource in the U.S. under scenarios with high VRE penetrations. It also provides supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. We modeled several scenarios using capacity expansion and production cost models for LDE prices ranging from $\$ $0/MWh to $\$ $30/MWh. These LDE prices, coupled with low renewable energy cost assumptions, resulted in VRE penetrations ranging from 48-66% in 2050. The resulting LDE supplies range from 100 - 300 TWh/yr at a price of $\$ $0/MWh to 3,500 - 4,200 TWh/yr at $\$ $30/MWh. Increasing LDE prices increases wind and photovoltaics deployment; however, other generation technology capacities do not decrease equivalently in our models. Thus, additional generation is available but the capacity of traditional dispatchable generation is only reduced slightly. The available LDE is concentrated in the central and southwest U.S. regions because of their high wind and solar resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1991

Control of a flexible bracing manipulator: Integration of current research work to realize the bracing manipulator

All research results about flexible manipulator control were integrated to show a control scenario of a bracing manipulator. First, dynamic analysis of a flexible manipulator was done for modeling. Second, from the dynamic model, the inverse dynamic equation was derived, and the time domain inverse dynamic method was proposed for the calculation of the feedforward torque and the desired flexible coordinate trajectories. Third, a tracking controller was designed by combining the inverse dynamic feedforward control with the joint feedback control. The control scheme was applied to the tip position control of a single link flexible manipulator for zero and non-zero initial condition cases. Finally, the contact control scheme was added to the position tracking control. A control scenario of a bracing manipulator is provided and evaluated through simulation and experiment on a single link flexible manipulator.

Kwon, Dong-Soo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interactions Between Climate Policy and Technology-influenced Travel Behavior: Mitigating Induced Demand from CACC

Advances in vehicle technology have influenced the development of automated vehicle systems, where vehicles that do not require human intervention are already deployed in the roadway networks. While these advances are proved to increase roadway safety and highway capacity, more research is needed to understand the long-term and regional-level impacts on mobility, land use, energy consumption, and emissions. This study proposes a multi-model approach to analyze the effect of vehicle automation and deep decarbonization policies over a period from 2020 to 2040 in Austin, Texas. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop internally the scenarios that are then passed to the SMART Mobility modeling workflow, a large-scale simulation framework combining the POLARIS activity-based travel demand model and mesoscopic traffic simulator with the Autonomie vehicle energy consumption model and the UrbanSim land use simulator. Results suggest that the introduction of vehicles with advanced automation could increase fuel consumption when no decarbonization policies are implemented. Also, advances in vehicle technology research and development could lead to a decline in energy use in the long-term. Energy pricing and vehicle electrification incentives could help reduce the impact of vehicle automation. Finally, our analysis indicates the relevance of introducing land use processes in longterm vehicle automation studies.

land use↗

NASA NTRS1991

Current wave-form observed during lightning strikes on aircraft

A preliminary validation of a number of mechanisms that can be associated with the various phases encountered during in-flight lightning strikes are provided. It is known that a lightning strike on an aircraft occurs in several phases: a preparation phase, an electric arc attachment phase, a connection phase, and a re-light phase. This analysis is confined to the study of the readings obtained during the electric arc attachment phase and to experiments carried out to validate the scenarios that are currently understood. The objective of the analysis is to explain this attachment phase. A brief review of the experiments that are currently being performed in an attempt to understand the re-light phase is also presented.

Boulay, J. L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Temporal variabilities of soil carbon dioxide fluxes from cornfield impacted by temperature and precipitation changes through high-frequent measurement and DAYCENT modelling

Soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the field of corn (Zea mays L.) play an important role in global warming. This study investigated temporal variability of soil CO 2 fluxes (R s ) with soil temperature (T s ) and moisture (θ) and built DAYCENT models for predicting future impacts of climate changes on R s using the measured high-frequency data. R s trend was tested by Mann–Kendall and Sen Estimator. Predicted R s s under different climate scenarios were compared using Parallel-line Analysis. Herein, the findings indicated that daily R s exponentially increased with T s constrained by θ. During the θ of 27–31%, there was a strong exponential relationship between R s and T s , but the relationship was weaker for the θ of 38–41% and 22–26%. Soil environmental index (SEI, T s × θ) significantly impacted R s with linear regression R s 0.5 = 0.4599 + 0.002059 × SEI in 2008, 2009 and 2011. At the diurnal scale, there were different trends in R s s and relationships among R s and T s and θ in different years. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and corn yield in 2014–2049 increased with an increase in temperature scenarios, but the R s s significantly increased as temperature rose by 1°C or higher. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and yield reduced with precipitation scenario increase, and the root R s s and yield significantly diminished as precipitation increased by 15 and 30%. Predicted yearly R s from cornfields had a significantly increasing trend. Future research is needed to explore methods for mitigating cornfield R s and evaluating sensitivities of different cropland R s s to temperature changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

ISS Propulsion Module Crew Systems Interface Analysis in the Intelligent Synthesis Environment

ERGO, a human modeling software for ergonomic assessment and task analysis, was used for the crew systems interface analysis of the International Space Station (ISS) Propulsion Module (PM). The objective of analysis was to alleviate passageway size concerns. Three basic passageway configuration concepts: (1) 45" clear passageway without centerline offset (2) 50" clear passageway, 12" centerline offset, (3) 50" clear passageway, no centerline offset, and were reviewed. 95 percentile male and female models which were provided by the software performed crew system analysis from an anthropometric point of view. Four scenarios in which the crew floats in microgravity through a 50" no-offset passageway as they carry a 16" x 20" x 30" avionics box were simulated in the 10-weeks of intensive study. From the results of the analysis, concept (3) was the preferred option. A full scale, three-dimensional virtual model of the ISS Propulsion Module was created to experience the sense of the Intelligent Synthesis Environment and to evaluate the usability and applicability of the software.

Chen, Di-Wen↗

NASA NTRS2004

Mars Exploration Rovers Entry, Descent, and Landing Trajectory Analysis

The Mars Exploration Rover mission successfully landed two rovers "Spirit" and "Opportunity" on Mars on January 4th and 25th of 2004, respectively. The trajectory analysis performed to define the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) scenario is described. The entry requirements and constraints are presented, as well as uncertainties used in a Monte Carlo dispersion analysis to statistically assess the robustness of the entry design to off-nominal conditions. In the analysis, six-degree-of-freedom and three-degree-of-freedom trajectory results are compared to assess the entry characteristics of the capsule. Comparison of the preentry results to preliminary post-landing reconstruction data shows that all EDL parameters were within the requirements. In addition, the final landing position for both "Spirit" and "Opportunity" were within 15 km of the predicted landing location.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Strategies to Approach Net-Zero Carbon Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Woody Biomass Gasification and Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

Reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transportation industry is a key target for achieving global net-zero carbon goals. Wide-spread electrification, efficient engine design, and alternative fuel implementations have been introduced for light-duty vehicles and are projected to significantly reduce light-duty emissions in the near future. Conversely, the aviation sector contributes considerably towards transportation-based carbon emissions, but current projections do not show substantial reductions in carbon emissions over time. Challenges for the aviation sector include low compatibility with electrification, relative inflexibility to variations in fuel properties, and requirement of high energy density fuels. Thus, identifying pathways to decarbonize the aviation sector via liquid low- or net-zero carbon biofuels that are compatible with current aviation infrastructure is crucial. This work investigates the economic feasibility of approaching net-zero carbon sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from woody biomass via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. In doing so, this assessment identifies the economic opportunities and trade-offs of several carbon mitigation strategies coupled with renewable resource interventions required to approach net-zero carbon fuels via biomass. Renewable natural gas and green hydrogen utilization strategies are assessed to examine the impact of fuel yield improvements versus renewable resource cost. Additionally, both carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) are considered in this analysis to help mitigate carbon loss to the atmosphere. Each scenario was assessed on cost, carbon efficiency, energy efficiency, and overall technology-readiness level (TRL). The results of this analysis show that renewable natural gas, green hydrogen, and CCS can be viewed as a low-cost, near-term carbon abatement strategies. However, in the long-term, deployment of more expensive and less technologically mature CCU technologies can make use of point sources of CO2 to boost overall fuel production.

aviation fuel↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Framework for Reliability and Safety Analysis of Complex Space Missions

Long duration and complex mission scenarios are characteristics of NASA's human exploration of Mars, and will provide unprecedented challenges. Systems reliability and safety will become increasingly demanding and management of uncertainty will be increasingly important. NASA's current pioneering strategy recognizes and relies upon assurance of crew and asset safety. In this regard, flexibility to develop and innovate in the emergence of new design environments and methodologies, encompassing modeling of complex systems, is essential to meet the challenges.

Safety Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2003

Composite Development and Applications for RLV Tankage

The development of polymer composite cryogenic tanks is a critical step in creating the next generation of launch vehicles. Future launch vehicles need to minimize the gross liftoff weight (GLOW), which is possible due to the 28%-41% reduction in weight that composite materials can provide over current aluminum technology. The development of composite cryogenic tanks, feedlines, and unpressurized structures are key enabling technologies for performance and cost enhancements for Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLVs). The technology development of composite tanks has provided direct and applicable data for feedlines, unpressurized structures, material compatibility, and cryogenic fluid containment for highly loaded complex structures and interfaces. All three types of structure have similar material systems, processing parameters, scaling issues, analysis methodologies, NDE development, damage tolerance, and repair scenarios. Composite cryogenic tankage is the most complex of the 3 areas and provides the largest breakthrough in technology. A building block approach has been employed to bring this family of difficult technologies to maturity. This approach has built up composite materials, processes, design, analysis and test methods technology through a series of composite test programs beginning with the NASP program to meet aggressive performance goals for reusable launch vehicles. In this paper, the development and application of advanced composites for RLV use is described.

Wright, Richard J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The future evolution of energy-water-agriculture interconnectivity across the US

Abstract Energy, water, and agricultural resources across the globe are highly interconnected. This interconnectivity poses science challenges, such as understanding and modeling interconnections, as well as practical challenges, such as efficiently managing interdependent resource systems. Using the US as an example, this study seeks to define and explore how interconnectivity evolves over space and time under a range of influences. Concepts from graph theory and input–output analysis are used to visualize and quantify key intersectoral linkages using two new indices: the ‘Interconnectivity Magnitude Index’ and the ‘Interconnectivity Spread Index’. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we explore the future evolution of these indices under four scenarios that explore a range of forces, including socioeconomic and technological change. Analysis is conducted at both national and state level spatial scales from 2015 to 2100. Results from a Reference scenario show that resource interconnectivity in the US is primarily driven by water use amongst different sectors, while changes in interconnectivity are driven by a decoupling of the water and electricity systems, as power plants become more water-efficient over time. High population and GDP growth results in relatively more decoupling of sectors, as a larger share of water and energy is used outside of interconnected sector feedback loops. Lower socioeconomic growth results in the opposite trend. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy increases interconnectivity because of the expansion of purpose-grown biomass, which strengthens the connections between water and energy. The results highlight that while some regions may experience similar sectoral stress projections, the composition of the intersectoral connectivity leading to that sectoral stress may call for distinctly different multi-sector co-management strategies. The methodology we introduce here can be applied in diverse geographical and sectoral contexts to enable better understanding of where, when, and how coupling or decoupling between sectors could evolve and be better managed.

Khan, Zarrar (ORCID:0000000281478553)↗

DOE OSTI2026

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Grid Voltage Control Analysis for Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Charging Stations: Preprint

This paper presents an analysis of voltage control strategies for heavy duty electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. The performance of three voltage control approaches including power factor control, preset volt-var curve control, and customized volt-var curve control, have been investigated and evaluated for three different sizes of charging stations, including single-port small charging station, three-port middle size charging station, and 6-port travel center. The charging stations have been placed on various locations of four different types of distribution systems, to obtain a comprehensive performance analysis of the three voltage control approaches under different scenarios. To quantitively compare the performance of the three voltage control approaches, a series of metrics have been designed to quantify the performance and contribute to the comprehensive analysis summary.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗