Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Source term calculation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Spectral Characteristics of Wake Vortex Sound During Roll-Up

This report presents an analysis of the sound spectra generated by a trailing aircraft vortex during its rolling-up process. The study demonstrates that a rolling-up vortex could produce low frequency (less than 100 Hz) sound with very high intensity (60 dB above threshold of human hearing) at a distance of 200 ft from the vortex core. The spectrum then drops o rapidly thereafter. A rigorous analytical approach has been adopted in this report to derive the spectrum of vortex sound. First, the sound pressure was solved from an alternative treatment of the Lighthill s acoustic analogy approach [1]. After the application of Green s function for free space, a tensor analysis was applied to permit the removal of the source term singularity of the wave equation in the far field. Consequently, the sound pressure is expressed in terms of the retarded time that indicates the time history and spacial distribution of the sound source. The Fourier transformation is then applied to the sound pressure to compute its spectrum. As a result, the Fourier transformation greatly simplifies the expression of the vortex sound pressure involving the retarded time, so that the numerical computation is applicable with ease for axisymmetric line vortices during the rolling-up process. The vortex model assumes that the vortex circulation is proportional to the time and the core radius is a constant. In addition, the velocity profile is assumed to be self-similar along the aircraft flight path, so that a benchmark vortex velocity profile can be devised to obtain a closed form solution, which is then used to validate the numerical calculations for other more realistic vortex profiles for which no closed form solutions are available. The study suggests that acoustic sensors operating at low frequency band could be profitably deployed for detecting the vortex sound during the rolling-up process.

Booth, Earl R., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Role of Ocean Currents and Bottom Pressure Variability on Seasonal Polar Motion

Changes in the ocean angular momentum (OAM) components about the equatorial axes, either due to fluctuations in currents or bottom pressure (mass redistribution), can induce movements of the Earth's pole of rotation, commonly referred to as polar motion or wobble. Output from a 1 deg resolution ocean model is used to calculate the effective equatorial OAM functions chi(sub 1, sup O) and chi(sub 2, sup O), corresponding to polar motion excitation about the equatorial axis pointing to the Greenwich and 90 deg E meridians, respectively. Time series of chi(sup O) are combined with similar atmospheric series chi(sup A), computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses, to interpret the observed low-frequency polar motion excitation for the period 1985-1996. Results indicate that the oceans are a very important excitation source for the Chandler (approximately 433 days), annual, and semiannual wobbles, providing for much better amplitude and phase agreement with the observed excitation at these periods, in comparison with what is obtained when only the atmosphere is considered. Both oceanic mass and motion terms are found to be important but with mass signals having somewhat larger amplitudes. The role of regional variability in ocean currents and bottom pressure in contributing to chi(sup O) signals is quantified. Midlatitude regions (approximately 30 deg - 70 deg) figure prominently as places of strong local oceanic excitation signals. The North Pacific basin is found to be generally important for chi(sup O) excitation, while the Southern Ocean is important for both chi(sub 1, sup O) and chi(sub 2, sup O). The largest positive covariances of local with global chi(sup O) signals occur in the Kuroshio region near the western boundary of the North Pacific for chi(sub 1, sup O) and southwest of Australia for chi(sub 2, sup O).

Ponte, Rui M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Geospatial Cluster Analysis of the State, Duration and Severity of Drought Over Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil

Droughts threaten water resources, agriculture, socio-economic activities and the population at the global and regional level, so identifying areas with homogeneous drought behaviors is an important consideration in improving the management of water resources. The objective of this study is to identify homogenous zones over Paraíba State in relation to the state, duration and severity of droughts that have occurred over the last 20 years (1998–2017) using hierarchical cluster analysis based on both gauge-measured and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimated rainfall data (TMPA 3B42). The drought series were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on eight time scales and were grouped according to drought state, duration and severity time series. The integrated results of state, duration and severity of droughts indicate that there is a basis for dividing Paraíba State into two major regions (a) Zone I, formed by Mata Paraibana and Agreste Paraibano, and (b) Zone II, composed by Borborema and Sertão Paraibano. This division is evident when assessing short-term droughts, but in the case of long-term droughts, Paraíba State has a high similarity in terms of drought state, duration, and severity. Factors such as proximity to the ocean, active climatic systems, and the local relief configuration were identified as influencing the drought regime. Finally, it is concluded that TMPA rainfall estimates represent a valuable source of data to regionalize and identify drought patterns over this part of Brazil and that other studies of this type should be carried out to monitor these phenomena based on other satellite-based rainfall data, including the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

SPI↗
NASA NTRS1974

Analysis of acoustic radiation in a jet flow environment

The analysis of sound fields from arbitrary source distributions in terms of Legendre and spherical Hankel functions is well known. The purpose of this paper is to extend this classical method of analysis to environments such as jet flows where flow and flow gradients are inherently present. The wave-equation governing the radiation of sound in such an environment is derived. The steady state flow and flow gradients in the axial and transverse directions appear as coefficients in the terms of the wave-equation. A semi-numerical method is used to solve the wave-equation in terms of modified spherical harmonics yielding the phase velocities and the directivities of an infinite set of modes. The directivity of each mode is obtained in terms of modified Legendre functions by numerical integration. Some results of these directivity and phase-velocity calculations are presented for a limited number of frequency and flow parameters. Both convective and shear refraction are shown to be important.

Mungur, P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The interpretation of crustal dynamics data in terms of plate interactions and active tectonics of the Anatolian plate and surrounding regions in the Middle East

A detailed study was made of the consequences of the Arabian plate convergence against Eurasia and its effects on the tectonics of Anatolia and surrounding regions of the eastern Mediterranean. A primary source of information is time rates of change of baseline lengths and relative heights determined by repeated SLR measurements. These SLR observations are augmented by a network of GPS stations in Anatolia, Aegea, and Greece, established and twice surveyed since 1988. The existing SLR and GPS networks provide the spatial resolution necessary to reveal the details of ongoing tectonic processes in this area of continental collision. The effort has involved examining the state of stress in the lithosphere and relative plate motions as revealed by these space based geodetic measurements, seismicity, and earthquake mechanisms as well as the aseismic deformations of the plates from conventional geodetic data and geological evidence. These observations are used to constrain theoretical calculations of the relative effects of: (1) the push of the Arabian plate; (2) high topography of Eastern Anatolia; (3) the geometry and properties of African-Eurasian plate boundary; (4) subduction under the Hellenic Arc and southwestern Turkey; and (5) internal deformation and rotation of the Anatolian plate.

Toksoz, M. Nafi↗
DOE OSTI2021

( 6 Li, d) and ( 6 Li, t) reactions on 22 Ne and implications for s-process nucleosynthesis

We studied α cluster states in 26 Mg via the 22 Ne( 6 Li,dγ) 26 Mg reaction in inverse kinematics at an energy of 7 MeV/nucleon. States between E x = 4–14 MeV in 26 Mg were populated and relative α spectroscopic factors were determined. Some of these states correspond to resonances in the Gamow window of the 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reaction, which is one of the main neutron sources in the astrophysical s-process. Using our new 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg and 22Ne(α,γ) 26 Mg reaction rates, we performed new s-process calculations for massive stars and asymptotic giant branch stars and compared the resulting abundances with the abundances obtained using other 22 Ne+α rates from the literature. We observe an impact on the s-process abundances up to a factor of three for intermediate-mass AGB stars and up to a factor of ten for massive stars. Additionally, states in 25 Mg at E x < 7.5 MeV are identified via the 22 Ne( 6 Li,t) 25 Mg reaction for the first time. We present the ( 6 Li, t) spectroscopic factors of these states and note similarities to the (d,p) reaction in terms of reaction selectivity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1997

SYNTHESIS OF NOVEL ALL-DIELECTRIC GRATING FILTERS USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS

We are concerned with the design of inhomogeneous, all dielectric (lossless) periodic structures which act as filters. Dielectric filters made as stacks of inhomogeneous gratings and layers of materials are being used in optical technology, but are not common at microwave frequencies. The problem is then finding the periodic cell's geometric configuration and permittivity values which correspond to a specified reflectivity/transmittivity response as a function of frequency/illumination angle. This type of design can be thought of as an inverse-source problem, since it entails finding a distribution of sources which produce fields (or quantities derived from them) of given characteristics. Electromagnetic sources (electric and magnetic current densities) in a volume are related to the outside fields by a well known linear integral equation. Additionally, the sources are related to the fields inside the volume by a constitutive equation, involving the material properties. Then, the relationship linking the fields outside the source region to those inside is non-linear, in terms of material properties such as permittivity, permeability and conductivity. The solution of the non-linear inverse problem is cast here as a combination of two linear steps, by explicitly introducing the electromagnetic sources in the computational volume as a set of unknowns in addition to the material unknowns. This allows to solve for material parameters and related electric fields in the source volume which are consistent with Maxwell's equations. Solutions are obtained iteratively by decoupling the two steps. First, we invert for the permittivity only in the minimization of a cost function and second, given the materials, we find the corresponding electric fields through direct solution of the integral equation in the source volume. The sources thus computed are used to generate the far fields and the synthesized triter response. The cost function is obtained by calculating the deviation between the synthesized value of reflectivity/transmittivity and the desired one. Solution geometries for the periodic cell are sought as gratings (ensembles of columns of different heights and widths), or combinations of homogeneous layers of different dielectric materials and gratings. Hence the explicit unknowns of the inversion step are the material permittivities and the relative boundaries separating homogeneous parcels of the periodic cell.

Zuffada, Cinzia↗
NASA NTRS2011

Steady and Unsteady Flow Effects of Circumferential Grooves Casing Treatment in a Transonic Compressor Rotor

The current paper reports on an investigation of steady and unsteady flow effects of circumferential grooves casing treatment in a transonic compressor rotor. Circumferential grooves casing treatment is used mainly to increase stall margin in axial compressors with a relatively small decrease in aerodynamic efficiency. It is widely believed that flow mechanisms of circumferential grooves casing treatment near stall conditions are not yet well understood even though this treatment has been used widely in real engines. Numerical analysis based on steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) has been the primary tool used to understand flow mechanism for circumferential grooves casing treatment. Although steady RANS explains some flow effects of circumferential grooves casing treatment, it does not calculate all the measured changes in the compressor characteristics. Therefore, design optimization of circumferential grooves with steady RANS has not been very successful. As a compressor operates toward the stall condition, the flow field becomes transient. Major sources of self-generated flow unsteadiness are shock oscillation and interaction between the passage shock and the tip leakage vortex. In the present paper, an unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) approach is applied to study the effects of circumferential grooves in a transonic compressor. The results from URANS are compared with the results from RANS and measured data. The current investigation shows that there are significant unsteady flow effects on the performance of the circumferential grooves casing treatment. For the currently investigated rotor, the unsteady effects are of the same magnitude as the steady effects in terms of extending the compressor stall margin.

Hah, Chunill↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Aging and Lifetime Prediction in Grid Applications for Large-Format Commercial Li-Ion Batteries

Due to the growth of electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets, the production and use of lithium-ion batteries has grown exponentially in recent years. For many of these applications, large-format lithium-ion batteries are being utilized, as large cells have less inactive material relative to their energy capacity and require fewer electrical connections to assemble into packs. And especially for stationary energy storage systems, where energy delivered is the only revenue source, the economics of these battery systems is highly dependent on cell lifetime. However, testing of large-format lithium-ion batteries is time consuming and requires high current channels and large testing chambers, making information on the performance of commercial, large-format lithium-ion batteries hard to come by. Here, accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries is reported. These batteries span both NMC-Gr and LFP-Gr cell chemistries, pouch and prismatic formats, and a range of cell designs with varying power capabilities. Accelerated aging test results are analyzed to examine both cell performance, in terms of efficiency and thermal response under load, as well as cell lifetime. Cell thermal response is characterized by measuring temperature during cycle aging, which is used to calculated a normalized thermal resistance value that may help estimate both cell cooling needs or to help extrapolate aging test results to different thermal environments. Cell lifetime is evaluated qualitatively, considering simply the average calendar and cycle life across a range of conditions, as well as quantitatively, using statistical modeling and machine-learning methods to identify predictive aging models from the accelerated aging data. These predictive aging models are then used to investigate cell sensitivities to stressors, such as cycling temperature, voltage window, and C-rate, as well as to predict cell lifetime in various stationary storage applications. Results from this work show that cell lifetime and sensitivity to aging conditions varies substantially across commercial cells, necessitating testing for specific cell formats to make quantitative lifetime predictions. That being said, all commercial cells tested here are predicted to reach at least 10-year lifetimes for stationary storage applications. Based on the aging test results and modeling, some cells are expected to be relatively insensitive to temperature and use-case, making them suited for simple use cases with little or no thermal management and simple controls, while the lifetime of other cells could be extended to 20+ years if operated with thermal management and degradation-aware controls.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic Plasma Simulation Capabilities in the MOOSE Framework: Verification of Particle-Particle Collisions

High-fidelity simulations of complex plasma systems allow researchers to gain key insights into and understanding of these systems. To facilitate massively parallel high-fidelity plasma simulations, finite-element-based particle-in-cell capabilities are being developed within the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) based framework called Software for Advanced Large-scale Analysis of MAgnetic confinement for Numerical Design, Engineering & Research (SALAMANDER). While SALAMANDER’s primary objective is modeling edge plasmas and plasma-facing components in fusion devices, the particle-in-cell capabilities being developed are general and will support modeling low-temperature plasmas as well. Previously, collisionless magnetostatic simulation capabilities have been verified with the two-stream and Dorey-Guest-Harris instabilities, and single particle motion. Collisions were implemented using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method, and verification of this capability will be presented here several verification problems: relaxation of a randomly initialized gas to a Maxwellian distribution, Fourier heat flow, and comparison of reaction rates to both analytic calculations and those calculated using a multi-term Boltzmann solver.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Improving Air Quality Forecasts with AURA Observations

Past studies have identified model initial and boundary conditions as sources of reducible errors in air-quality simulations. In particular, improving the initial condition improves the accuracy of short-term forecasts as it allows for the impact of local emissions to be realized by the model and improving boundary conditions improves long range transport through the model domain, especially in recirculating anticyclones. During the August 2006 period, we use AURA/OMI ozone measurements along with MODIS and CALIPSO aerosol observations to improve the initial and boundary conditions of ozone and Particulate Matter. Assessment of the model by comparison of the control run and satellite assimilation run to the IONS06 network of ozonesonde observations, which comprise the densest ozone sounding campaign ever conducted in North America, to AURA/TES ozone profile measurements, and to the EPA ground network of ozone and PM measurements will show significant improvement in the CMAQ calculations that use AURA initial and boundary conditions. Further analyses of lightning occurrences from ground and satellite observations and AURA/OMI NO2 column abundances will identify the lightning NOx signal evident in OMI measurements and suggest pathways for incorporating the lightning and NO2 data into the CMAQ simulations.

Newchurch, M. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Baryonic effects in the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure and an analytic recipe for lensing in CMB-S4

Upcoming Large-Scale Structure surveys will likely become the next leading sources of cosmological information, making it crucial to have a precise understanding of the influence of baryons on cosmological observables. The Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) provides a consistent way to predict the clustering of dark matter and baryons on large scales, where their leading corrections in perturbation theory are given by a simple and calculable functional form even after the onset of baryonic processes. In this paper, we extend the two-fluid-like system up to two-loop order in perturbation theory. Along the way, we show that a new linear counterterm proportional to the relative velocity of the fluids could generically be present, but we show that its effects are expected to be small in our universe. Regardless, we show how to consistently perform perturbation theory in the presence of this new term. We find that the EFTofLSS at two-loop order can accurately account for the details of baryonic processes on large scales. Additionally, we compare our results to a hydrodynamical N-body simulation at many redshifts and find that the counterterms associated with the leading corrections to dark matter and baryons start to differ between redshifts z ≈ 3 and z ≈ 2, signaling the onset of star-formation physics. We then use these fits to compute the lensing power spectrum, show that the understanding of baryonic processes will be important for analyzing CMB-S4 data, and show that the two-loop EFTofLSS accurately captures these effects for ℓ ≲ 2000. Our results are also potentially of interest for current and future weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Nuclear cascades in Saturn's rings - Cosmic ray albedo neutron decay and origins of trapped protons in the inner magnetosphere

The nearly equatorial trajectory of the Pioneer 11 spacecraft through Saturn's high energy proton radiation belts and under the main A-B-C rings provided a unique opportunity to study the radial dependence of the greater than 30 MeV proton intensities in the belts in terms of models for secondary nucleon production by cosmic ray interactions in the rings, in situ proton injection in the radiation belts by neutron beta decay, magnetospheric diffusion, and absorption by planetary rings and satellites. Maximum trapped proton intensities measured by Pioneer 11 in the radiation belts are compared with calculated intensities and found consistent with trapping times of roughly 40 years and a radial diffusion coefficient of about 10 to the -15th L to the 9th R sub s squared/s. Differential energy spectra proportional to E to the -2 estimated from integral measurements of trapped photons with E greater than 100 MeV are consistent with the beta decay model, but an inferred turndown of the spectra toward lower energies and reported integral proton anisotropies of a specified form both indicate the need for more realistic calculations of the neutron source from the rings and the radiation belt loss processes.

Cooper, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Precise Orbit and the Challenge of Long Term Stability

The computation of a precise orbit reference is a fundamental component of the altimetric measurement. Since the dawn of the modern altimeter age, orbit accuracy has been determined by the quality of the GPS, SLR, and DORIS tracking systems, the fidelity of the measurement and force models, and the choice of parameterization for the orbit solutions, and whether a dynamic or a reduced-dynamic strategy is used to calculate the orbits. At the start of the TOPEX mission, the inaccuracies in the modeling of static gravity, dynamic ocean tides, and the nonconservative forces dominated the orbit error budget. Much of the error due to dynamic mismodeling can be compensated by reduced-dynamic tracking techniques depending on the measurement system strength. In the last decade, the launch of the GRACE mission has eliminated the static gravity field as a concern, and the background force models and the terrestrial reference frame have been systematically refined. GPS systems have realized many improvements, including better modeling of the forces on the GPS spacecraft, large increases in the ground tracking network, and improved modeling of the GPS measurements. DORIS systems have achieved improvements through the use of new antennae, more stable monumentation, and of satellite receivers that can track multiple beacons, and as well as through improved modeling of the nonconservative forces. Many of these improvements have been applied in the new reprocessed time series of orbits produced for the ERS satellites, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason satellites, and as well as for the most recent Cryosat-2 and HY2A. We now face the challenge of maintaining a stable orbit reference for these altimetric satellites. Changes in the time-variable gravity field of the Earth and how these are modelled have been shown to affect the orbit evolution, and the calibration of the altimetric data with tide gauges. The accuracy of the reference frame realizations, and their projection into the future remains a source of error. Other sources of omission error include the geocenter for which no consensus model is as of yet applied. Although progress has been made in nonconservative force modeling through the use of detailed satellite-specific models, radiation pressure modeling, and atmospheric density modeling remain a potential source of orbit error. The longer term influence of variations in the solar and terrestrial radiation fields over annual and solar cycles remains principally untested. Also the long term variation in optical and thermal properties of the space vehicle surfaces would contribute to biases in the orbital frame if ignored. We review the status of altimetric precision orbit determination as exemplified by the recent computations undertaken by the different analysis centers for ERS, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason, Cryosat2 and HY2A, and we provide a perspective on the challenges for future missions such as the Jason-3, SENTINEL-3 and SWOT.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Human reliability analysis studies from simulator experiments using Bayesian inference

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of complex facilities is performed to arrive at the risk posed by them. PSA also accounts for the contribution of the human errors towards the overall risk through Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in terms of Human Error Probability (HEP). Human operators are part of the system and do not work in isolation. Their performance is influenced by the context in which the actions are performed. As a result, quantification of HEP requires operator performance data under the given context. Some good sources of operator performance data are plant‘s operation data, simulator data and expert judgement. The plant operation data pertaining to HRA is generally sparse. In this situation, a full scope plant simulator provides a good alternative for operator performance data generation. Many of the currently practiced HRA methods have been developed by combining the empirical evidence with expert judgement and contain a lot of uncertainty in their estimates. Bayesian inference is suitable for updating the prior HRA estimates with the simulator evidence to obtain the posterior HEP. Here, posterior HEP has been calculated for postulated accident scenarios in advanced reactor (first of its kind) at design stage, using plant simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1991

Infrared measurements of HF and HCl total column abundances above Kitt Peak, 1977-1990 - Seasonal cycles, long-term increases, and comparisons with model calculations

The paper deals with hydrogen-chloride and hydrogen-fluoride total column measurements, their estimated long-term rates of increase, seasonal cycles, and variability, deduced from the analysis of a set of high-resolution infrared solar spectra recorded at Kitt Peak. The Kitt Peak observations and methods of analysis are described, the results are presented and compared with previously reported measurements and trends. The data is analyzed by using a multilayer nonlinear least-squares spectral fitting procedure and a consistent set of spectroscopic line parameters. Model-calculated hydrogen-chloride and hydrogen-fluoride total columns obtained with a two-dimensional model are discussed, and the model results are compared with the measured hydrogen-chloride and hydrogen-fluoride total columns, seasonal cycles, and trends. It is pointed out that the observed trends of both molecules are in satisfactory agreement with the model results calculated from emission histories and photooxidation rates for the source molecules.

Rinsland, C. P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The miniJPAS survey: AGN and host galaxy coevolution of X-ray-selected sources

Studies indicate strong evidence of a scaling relation in the local Universe between the supermassive black hole mass (MBH) and the stellar mass of their host galaxies (M * ). They even show similar histories across cosmic times of their differential terms: the star formation rate (SFR) and black hole accretion rate (BHAR). However, a clear picture of this coevolution is far from being understood. We selected an X-ray sample of active galactic nuclei (AGN) up to z = 2.5 in the miniJPAS footprint. Their X-ray to infrared spectral energy distributions (SEDs) have been modeled with the CIGALE code, constraining the emission to 68 bands, from which 54 are the narrow filters from the miniJPAS survey. For a final sample of 308 galaxies, we derived their physical properties, such as their M * , SFR, star formation history (SFH), and the luminosity produced by the accretion process of the central BH (L AGN ). For a subsample of 113 sources, we also fit their optical spectra to obtain the gas velocity dispersion from the broad emission lines and estimated the M BH . We calculated the BHAR in physical units depending on two radiative efficiency regimes. We find that the Eddington ratios (λ Edd ) and its popular proxy (L X /M * ) have a difference of 0.6 dex, on average, and a KS test indicates that they come from different distributions. Our sources exhibit a considerable scatter on the MBH - M * scaling relation, which can explain the difference between λ Edd and its proxy. We also modeled three evolution scenarios for each source to recover the integral properties at z = 0. Using the SFR and BHAR, we show a notable diminution in the scattering between MBH - M * . For the last scenario, we considered the SFH and a simple energy budget for the AGN accretion, and we retrieved a relation similar to the calibrations known for the local Universe. Our study covers ~1 deg 2 in the sky and is sensitive to biases in luminosity. Nevertheless, we show that, for bright sources, the link between the differential values (SFR and BHAR) and their decoupling based on an energy limit is the key that leads to the local M BH - M * scaling relation. In the future, we plan to extend this methodology to a thousand degrees of the sky using JPAS with an X-ray selection from eROSITA, to obtain an unbiased distribution of BHAR and Eddington ratios.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗