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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Mathematical Inversion of Lightning Data: Techniques and Applications

A survey of some interesting mathematical inversion studies dealing with radio, optical, and electrostatic measurements of lightning are presented. A discussion of why NASA is interested in lightning, what specific physical properties of lightning are retrieved, and what mathematical techniques are used to perform the retrievals are discussed. In particular, a relatively new multi-station VHF time-of-arrival (TOA) antenna network is now on-line in Northern Alabama and will be discussed. The network, called the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), employs GPS timing and detects VHF radiation from discrete segments (effectively point emitters) that comprise the channel of lightning strokes within cloud and ground flashes. The LMA supports on-going ground-validation activities of the low Earth orbiting Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellite developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. The LMA also provides detailed studies of the distribution and evolution of thunderstorms and lightning in the Tennessee Valley, and offers interesting comparisons with other meteorological/geophysical datasets. In order to take full advantage of these benefits, it is essential that the LMA channel mapping accuracy (in both space and time) be fully characterized and optimized. A new channel mapping retrieval algorithm is introduced for this purpose. To characterize the spatial distribution of retrieval errors, the algorithm has been applied to analyze literally tens of millions of computer-simulated lightning VHF point sources that have been placed at various ranges, azimuths, and altitudes relative to the LMA network. Statistical results are conveniently summarized in high-resolution, color-coded, error maps.

Koshak, William↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the Response of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager to the Marine Environment: Implications for Atmospheric Parameter Retrievals

A reasonably rigorous basis for understanding and extracting the physical information content of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) satellite images of the marine environment is provided. To this end, a comprehensive algebraic parameterization is developed for the response of the SSM/I to a set of nine atmospheric and ocean surface parameters. The brightness temperature model includes a closed-form approximation to microwave radiative transfer in a non-scattering atmosphere and fitted models for surface emission and scattering based on geometric optics calculations for the roughened sea surface. The combined model is empirically tuned using suitable sets of SSM/I data and coincident surface observations. The brightness temperature model is then used to examine the sensitivity of the SSM/I to realistic variations in the scene being observed and to evaluate the theoretical maximum precision of global SSM/I retrievals of integrated water vapor, integrated cloud liquid water, and surface wind speed. A general minimum-variance method for optimally retrieving geophysical parameters from multichannel brightness temperature measurements is outlined, and several global statistical constraints of the type required by this method are computed. Finally, a unified set of efficient statistical and semi-physical algorithms is presented for obtaining fields of surface wind speed, integrated water vapor, cloud liquid water, and precipitation from SSM/I brightness temperature data. Features include: a semi-physical method for retrieving integrated cloud liquid water at 15 km resolution and with rms errors as small as approximately 0.02 kg/sq m; a 3-channel statistical algorithm for integrated water vapor which was constructed so as to have improved linear response to water vapor and reduced sensitivity to precipitation; and two complementary indices of precipitation activity (based on 37 GHz attenuation and 85 GHz scattering, respectively), each of which are relatively insensitive to variations in other environmental parameters.

Petty, Grant W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust error calibration for serial crystallography

Serial crystallography is an important technique with unique abilities to resolve enzymatic transition states, minimize radiation damage to sensitive metalloenzymes and perform de novo structure determination from micrometre-sized crystals. This technique requires the merging of data from thousands of crystals, making manual identification of errant crystals unfeasible. cctbx.xfel.merge uses filtering to remove problematic data. However, this process is imperfect, and data reduction must be robust to outliers. We add robustness to cctbx.xfel.merge at the step of uncertainty determination for reflection intensities. This step is a critical point for robustness because it is the first step where the data sets are considered as a whole, as opposed to individual lattices. Robustness is conferred by reformulating the error-calibration procedure to have fewer and less stringent statistical assumptions and incorporating the ability to down-weight low-quality lattices. We then apply this method to five macromolecular XFEL data sets and observe the improvements to each. The appropriateness of the intensity uncertainties is demonstrated through internal consistency. This is performed through theoretical CC 1/2 and I /σ relationships and by weighted second moments, which use Wilson's prior to connect intensity uncertainties with their expected distribution. This work presents new mathematical tools to analyze intensity statistics and demonstrates their effectiveness through the often underappreciated process of uncertainty analysis.

Mittan-Moreau, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

CV4Quantum

CV4Quantum is a statistical technique for reducing the sampling overhead in probabilistic error cancellation, which is an error mitigation technique used in quantum computing. CV4Quantum is based on the control variates method, which is a Monte Carlo variance reduction technique. This repository contains the code and data associated with a demonstration of CV4Quantum using simulation experiments.

Shyamsundar, Prasanth [Fermi National Accelerator ↗
NASA NTRS1974

Some after-dinner reflections on system identification

The growth of the field of system identification is discussed along with changes in methodology which have taken place in recent years. The similarity between pattern recognition and system identification is pointed out, involving the modelling in the latter and the feature selection problem in the former. It is stated that once a model is formulated, including the disturbances and measurement errors, the parameter finding can be formulated as a statistical estimation problem. The various techniques and their application are discussed.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The effects of transmitter/receiver clock time base instability on coherent communication system performance

The purpose of this paper is to present a model and associated analysis of the deleterious effects which both transmitter and receiver data clock time-base instability have on bit error probability. The types of time-base instability modeled and analyzed include bit jitter (epoch jitter), bit jitter rate (time interval jitter) and data asymmetry. The bit error probability is determined as a function of the statistical characteristics of the time-base instability, the data transition density, the signal-to-noise ratio in the bit rate bandwidth and the mechanizations of both the data bit detector and bit synchronizer. Numerical results are provided.

Chie, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Precision of the calibration of the AXAF engineering test article (VETA) mirrors

Measurements of the VETA encircled energies have been performed at 5 energies within 16 radii ranging from 0.05 to 200 arcseconds. We report here on the analysis of the accuracy of those measurements. A common 'error tree' structure applies, and we present representative numbers for the larger terms. At 0.277, 1.5, and 2.07 keV, and for radii of 3 arcsec and larger, our measurements have estimated 1 sigma errors of 0.6 to 1.5 percent. Effects of measurement statistics and of the VETA test mount limit the accuracy at smaller angles, and modulation by the counter window support structure together with the imperfect position repeatability limit the accuracy for the 0.93 and 2.3 keV energies. We expect to mitigate these limitations when calibrating the complete AXAF flight mirror assembly.

Schwartz, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Precision of the calibration of the AXAF Engineering Test Article (VETA) mirrors

Measurements of the VETA encircled energies have been performed at 5 energies within 16 radii ranging from 0.05 to 200 arcseconds. We report here on the analysis of the accuracy of those measurements. A common 'error tree' structure applies, and we present representative numbers for the larger terms. At 0.277, 1.5, and 2.07 keV, and for radii of 3 arcsec and larger, our measurements have estimated 1 sigma errors of 0.6 to 1.5 percent. Effects of measurement statistics and of the VETA test mount limit the accuracy at smaller angles, and modulation by the counter window support structure together with the imperfect position repeatability limit the accuracy for the 0.93 and 2.3 keV energies. We expect to mitigate these limitations when calibrating the complete AXAF flight mirror assembly.

Schwartz, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Experimental analysis of thread movement in bolted connections due to vibrations

The objective of this study was to identify the main design parameters contributing to loosening of bolts due to vibration and to identify their relative importance and degree of contribution to bolt loosening. Vibration testing was conducted on a shaketable with a controlled-random input in the dynamic testing laboratory of the Structural Test Division of MSFC. Test specimens which contained one test bolt were vibrated for a fixed amount of time and percentage of pre-load loss was measured. Each specimen tested implemented some combination of eleven design parameters as dictated by the design of experiment methodology employed. The eleven design parameters were: bolt size (diameter), lubrication on bolt, hole tolerance, initial pre-load, nut locking device, grip length, thread pitch, lubrication between mating materials, class of fit, joint configuration and mass of configuration. These parameters were chosen for this experiment because they are believed to be the design parameters having the greatest impact on bolt loosening. Two values of each design parameter were used and each combination of parameters tested was subjected to two different directions of vibration and two different g-levels of vibration. One replication was made for each test to gain some indication of experimental error and repeatability and to give some degree of statistical credibility to the data, resulting in a total of 96 tests being performed. The results of the investigation indicated that nut locking devices, joint configuration, fastener size, and mass of configuration were significant in bolt loosening due to vibration. The results of this test can be utilized to further research the complex problem of bolt loosening due to vibration.

Ramey, G. ED↗
NASA NTRS1995

Experimental analysis of thread movement in bolted connections due to vibrations

This is the final report of research project NAS8-39131 #33 sponsored by NASA's George C. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and carried out by the Civil Engineering Department of Auburn University (Auburn, Alabama) and personnel of MSFC. The objective of this study was to identify the main design parameters contributing to the loosening of bolts due to vibration and to identify their relative importance and degree of contribution to bolt loosening. Vibration testing was conducted on a shaketable with a controlled-random input in the dynamic testing laboratory of the Structural Test Division of MSFC. Test specimens which contained one test bolt were vibrated for a fixed amount of time and a percentage of pre-load loss was measured. Each specimen tested implemented some combination of eleven design parameters as dictated by the design of experiment methodology employed. The eleven design parameters were: bolt size (diameter), lubrication on bolt, hole tolerance, initial pre-load, nut locking device, grip length, thread pitch, lubrication between mating materials, class of fit, joint configuration, and mass of configuration. These parameters were chosen for this experiment because they are believed to be the design parameters having the greatest impact on bolt loosening. Two values of each design parameter were used and each combination of parameters tested was subjected to two different directions of vibration and two different g-levels of vibration. One replication was made for each test to gain some indication of experimental error and repeatability and to give some degree of statistical credibility to the data, resulting in a total of 96 tests being performed. The results of the investigation indicated that nut locking devices, joint configuration, fastener size, and mass of configuration were significant in bolt loosening due to vibration. The results of this test can be utilized to further research the complex problem of bolt loosening due to vibration.

Ramsey, G. ED↗
NASA NTRS1999

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Dee, D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Hazard assessment↗
NASA NTRS2014

Introducing Multisensor Satellite Radiance-Based Evaluation for Regional Earth System Modeling

Earth System modeling has become more complex, and its evaluation using satellite data has also become more difficult due to model and data diversity. Therefore, the fundamental methodology of using satellite direct measurements with instrumental simulators should be addressed especially for modeling community members lacking a solid background of radiative transfer and scattering theory. This manuscript introduces principles of multisatellite, multisensor radiance-based evaluation methods for a fully coupled regional Earth System model: NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. We use a NU-WRF case study simulation over West Africa as an example of evaluating aerosol-cloud-precipitation-land processes with various satellite observations. NU-WRF-simulated geophysical parameters are converted to the satellite-observable raw radiance and backscatter under nearly consistent physics assumptions via the multisensor satellite simulator, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. We present varied examples of simple yet robust methods that characterize forecast errors and model physics biases through the spatial and statistical interpretation of various satellite raw signals: infrared brightness temperature (Tb) for surface skin temperature and cloud top temperature, microwave Tb for precipitation ice and surface flooding, and radar and lidar backscatter for aerosol-cloud profiling simultaneously. Because raw satellite signals integrate many sources of geophysical information, we demonstrate user-defined thresholds and a simple statistical process to facilitate evaluations, including the infrared-microwave-based cloud types and lidar/radar-based profile classifications.

Planetary Boundary Layer↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless if the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the NASA PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle Software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data, respectively. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. We determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Novack, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless of whether the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. It is determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Steven D. Novack↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Demonstration that Correcting for Completeness and Reliability Is Critical for Robust Occurrence Rates

A measurement of planetary occurrence rates based on a planet catalog should be robust against details of how initial detections were classified as planets or false positives. This is accomplished by supplying the catalog’s rate of missed planets (completeness) and rate of non-planets incorrectly called planets (reliability). The final Kepler data release (DR25) includes products that can be used with the DR25 planet candidate catalog to correct for completeness and reliability in occurrence rate estimates. This is made possible by the Kepler Robovetter, which algorithmically and uniformly selects planets based on a variety of metrics and thresholds. Completeness, reliability, and occurrence rates potentially depend on these Robovetter thresholds. We study the impact of varying these vetting thresholds using the techniques of Bryson et al. 2019 (arXiv:1906.03575). We explore sets of thresholds that result in more or fewer planets (trading off completeness for reliability), as well as thresholds tuned to pass DR25 false positives identified as possible planets by the Kepler False Positive Working Group. We find that when correcting only for completeness, and not reliability, the resulting occurrence rates have a strong dependence on these threshold sets. For example, the value of SAG13 eta-Earth varies by over a factor of 4 when not corrected for reliability. However, when correcting for both completeness and reliability, occurrence rates using our threshold sets are statistically indistinguishable, with differences being well inside 1-sigma error bars. We present occurrence rates integrated over several period-radius ranges. For example, SAG13 eta-Earth is consistent with 0.127 (+0.094)(-0.054) (from Bryson et al. 2019) for all the Robovetter threshold sets. This result emphasizes the importance of correcting occurrence rates for both completeness and reliability. This suggests that inconsistent completeness and reliability correction may be a significant contributor to the large variation of occurrence rates in recent literature. We plan to make the Robovetter results for our threshold sets available, and encourage the community to use them to examine whether other occurrence rate methods yield similarly robust results.

Bryson, S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation for Representative Human Reliability Analysis Methods

The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) is the regulatory expert organization established by the Korean government to strengthen the nation’s technical capabilities relating to nuclear safety regulation. KINS oversees the technical aspects of nuclear safety regulation, including safety reviews, inspections, education, and safety research—all conducted based on technical knowledge and accumulated regulatory experience. In 2023, KINS requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) validates representative human reliability analysis (HRA) methods used throughout the world, thus affording KINS with a basis for determining an HRA method adequate for its domestic regulatory purposes. The present paper mainly examines INL’s efforts in this regard. The resulting INL study covered four representative HRA methods widely used by nuclear utilities and regulatory institutes. These methods were qualitatively evaluated by applying specific evaluation criteria and determining how well each method reflected critical HRA issues. For this assessment, INL benchmarked the Halden International HRA Empirical Study. Using the Halden empirical data, along with information on human failure events (HFEs), the present study employed the selected HRA methods to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) for the HFEs. It also performed statistical analyses to compare the HEPs predicted via the HRA methods against those from the Halden empirical data.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Optimal location of actuators for correcting distortions due to manufacturing errors in large truss structures

A continuum approximation to the calculation of the statistical properties of the corrected shape of a beam truss is presented, and results of a comparison with the exact statistical analysis were found to be very good. In addition, the position of the actuators was optimized to minimize the weighted rms of the distortion using the continuum analysis. The optimal design is shown to be 13.6 percent better than a uniform design for a parabolic weighting function. It was also found that actuators located on the beam face elements were more effective than actuators located on the diagonal elements.

Burdisso, R.↗