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At least 631 records · Page 35

Learning thermodynamically constrained equations of state with uncertainty

Numerical simulations of high energy-density experiments require equation of state (EOS) models that relate a material’s thermodynamic state variables—specifically pressure, volume/density, energy, and temperature. EOS models are typically constructed using a semi-empirical parametric methodology, which assumes a physics-informed functional form with many tunable parameters calibrated using experimental/simulation data. Since there are inherent uncertainties in the calibration data (parametric uncertainty) and the assumed functional EOS form (model uncertainty), it is essential to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve confidence in EOS predictions. Model uncertainty is challenging for UQ studies since it requires exploring the space of all possible physically consistent functional forms. Thus, it is often neglected in favor of parametric uncertainty, which is easier to quantify without violating thermodynamic laws. This work presents a data-driven machine learning approach to constructing EOS models that naturally captures model uncertainty while satisfying the necessary thermodynamic consistency and stability constraints. We propose a novel framework based on physics-informed Gaussian process regression (GPR) that automatically captures total uncertainty in the EOS and can be jointly trained on both simulation and experimental data sources. A GPR model for the shock Hugoniot is derived, and its uncertainties are quantified using the proposed framework. We apply the proposed model to learn the EOS for the diamond solid state of carbon using both density functional theory data and experimental shock Hugoniot data to train the model and show that the prediction uncertainty is reduced by considering thermodynamic constraints.

Sharma, Himanshu (ORCID:000900050235718X)↗

Thermo4PFM: Facilitating Phase-field simulations of alloys with thermodynamic driving forces

Phase-field modeling is a popular front-tracking approach used to model solidification. Its time-evolution equations are often coupled to alloy composition and/or thermal diffusion in high-resolution multiphysics approaches. Materials thermodynamic properties tabulated in CALPHAD databases can be used for phase-field modeling to parameterize bulk energies of alloys. In addition, they can be naturally integrated into models such as the Kim-Kim-Suzuki (KKS) model where driving forces depend on the differences between chemical potentials of co-existing phases. In that case, a small system of coupled nonlinear equations needs to be solved at every point in space where the phase-field order parameter is to be updated and evolved in time. Here we present Thermo4PFM, a solver for the KKS equations for binary and ternary alloys, with two or three phases, and parameterized with CALPHAD models. Thermo4PFM is open source, written in C++, and can take advantage of Graphics Processing Units (GPU) accelerators. Using OpenMP offload capabilities for C++ classes, an excellent performance is demonstrated on GPU using the LLVM compiler. CALPHAD data is read from simple JSON files using an open source parser from the boost library.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hydrogen uptake in graphite matrix at high temperature

Tritium management is a critical challenge for the next generation of nuclear reactors, such as Fluoride Salt Cooled High Temperature Reactors (FHRs) and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs), due to the higher production rate (up to 10,000 times) than conventional Light Water Reactors (LWRs). Graphitic materials employed as moderator, reflector, and fuel pebbles offer a potential pathway for tritium recovery by serving as a sink for tritium. Prediction of uptake capacity under reactor relevant conditions remains a challenge due to a lack of low partial pressure data and significant inter-grade variability of graphite. This study addresses these gaps by providing a comprehensive characterization of hydrogen (as a tritium surrogate) uptake and release behavior in the A3-3 graphite matrix (GM) used in fuel pebbles. Uptake measurements are performed at reactor relevant temperatures of 600- 800 °C, 1-200 Torr hydrogen pressure, and 15-120 min equilibration time, followed by thermal desorption spectroscopy up to 1100 °C. Uptake experiments at different equilibration times demonstrate the role of kinetics in hydrogen uptake, which can be modeled as a diffusion-with-trapping process. In the thermodynamics limit, the Sips adsorption model is shown to capture the uptake in A3-3 GM well. Our campaign provides a set of new results for hydrogen uptake in A3-3, including limiting uptake capacity at 600 °C, apparent diffusion coefficient at 600 °C, and the first estimates of the FHR/HTGR relevant (600 °C, 20 Pa partial pressure) equilibrium uptake capacity and time to saturation. Desorption data highlights a new site for hydrogen uptake, not observed in nuclear graphite, which we attribute to the non-graphitized binder. Using the Kissinger method, we estimate activation energy for release from the desorption peaks, confirming the activation energy for release from the basal planes and providing the first estimate for the activation energy of release from the binder.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Elucidating Primary Degradation Mechanisms in High-Cycling-Capacity, Compositionally Tunable High-Entropy Hydrides

The hydrogen sorption properties of single-phase bcc (TiVNb) 100–x Cr x alloys (x = 0–35) are reported. All alloys absorb hydrogen quickly at 25 °C, forming fcc hydrides with storage capacity depending on the Cr content. Here, a thermodynamic destabilization of the fcc hydride is observed with increasing Cr concentration, which agrees well with previous compositional machine learning models for metal hydride thermodynamics. The steric effect or repulsive interactions between Cr–H might be responsible for this behavior. The cycling performances of the TiVNbCr alloy show an initial decrease in capacity, which cannot be explained by a structural change. Pair distribution function analysis of the total X-ray scattering on the first and last cycled hydrides demonstrated an average random fcc structure without lattice distortion at short-range order. If the as-cast alloy contains a very low density of defects, the first hydrogen absorption introduces dislocations and vacancies that cumulate into small vacancy clusters, as revealed by positron annihilation spectroscopy. Finally, the main reason for the capacity drop seems to be due to dislocations formed during cycling, while the presence of vacancy clusters might be related to the lattice relaxation. Having identified the major contribution to the capacity loss, compositional modifications to the TiVNbCr system can now be explored that minimize defect formation and maximize material cycling performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Studying Cloud and Radiative Impacts Through an Improved Physically Based Representation of Organic Aerosol in a Large-Scale Model (WRF-Chem) (Final Report)

The work performed under this award resulted in the development of a computationally-efficient kinetic model to simulate the chemistry, thermodynamics, and microphysics of organic aerosol. Versions of the kinetic model were used to study a suite of aerosol processes including, multigenerational gas-phase chemistry, phase-state influenced gas/particle partitioning, heterogeneous oxidation, oligomerization reactions, and experimental artifacts. The kinetic model has now been implemented into a regional chemistry-climate model (WRF-Chem) to further study the formation, evolution, properties, and spatiotemporal distribution of organic aerosol at urban, regional, and global scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Driving force and pathway in polyelectrolyte complex coacervation

There is notable discrepancy between experiments and coarse-grained model studies regarding the thermodynamic driving force in polyelectrolyte complex coacervation: experiments find the free energy change to be dominated by entropy, while simulations using coarse-grained models with implicit solvent usually report a large, even dominant energetic contribution in systems with weak to intermediate electrostatic strength. Here, using coarse-grained, implicit-solvent molecular dynamics simulation combined with thermodynamic analysis, we study the potential of mean force (PMF) in the two key stages on the coacervation pathway for symmetric polyelectrolyte mixtures: polycation–polyanion complexation and polyion pair–pair condensation. We show that the temperature dependence in the dielectric constant of water gives rise to a substantial entropic contribution in the electrostatic interaction. By accounting for this electrostatic entropy, which is due to solvent reorganization, we find that under common conditions (monovalent ions, room temperature) for aqueous systems, both stages are strongly entropy-driven with negligible or even unfavorable energetic contributions, consistent with experimental results. Furthermore, for weak to intermediate electrostatic strengths, this electrostatic entropy, rather than the counterion-release entropy, is the primary entropy contribution. From the calculated PMF, we find that the supernatant phase consists predominantly of polyion pairs with vanishingly small concentration of bare polyelectrolytes, and we provide an estimate of the spinodal of the supernatant phase. Finally, we show that prior to contact, two neutral polyion pairs weakly attract each other by mutually induced polarization, providing the initial driving force for the fusion of the pairs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Competitive formation of intercalated versus supported metal nanoclusters during deposition on layered materials with surface point defects

Intercalated metal nanoclusters (NCs) can be formed under the surface of graphite after sputtering to generate surface “portal” defects that allow deposited atoms to reach the subsurface gallery. Although, there is a competition between formation of supported NCs on top of the surface and intercalated NCs under the surface, the latter only dominating at sufficiently high temperature. A stochastic model incorporating appropriate system thermodynamics and kinetics is developed to capture this complex and competitive nucleation and growth process. Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation shows that the model captures experimental trends observed for Cu and other metals and reveals that higher temperatures are needed to facilitate detachment of atoms from supported NCs enabling them to reach the gallery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Analytical Tool to Evaluate Defect Thermodynamics of (La,Ba)Fe1-xMxO3-δ Perovskites for Solid-Oxide Cell Applications

A modeling tool of the defect thermodynamics of (La,Ba)Fe1-xMxO3-δ perovskites which includes energetic information about oxygen vacancy formation, hydration, hydride formation, and charge disproportionation reactions has been developed1. This tool incorporates defect energies and entropies expressed as sixth order polynomial functions to allow refinements of the defect reaction equilibrium constants in the thermodynamic analysis. Calculation of (La,Ba)Fe1-xMxO3-δ Brouwer diagrams as a function of pO2/pH2O and pH2/H2O in a range of temperatures of interest is facilitated by this modeling tool. The results obtained can provide direct guidance how the electronic and ionic defect concentrations of the triple conducting perovskite materials can be used to optimize performance of solid oxide cells for energy applications. The impact of magnetic and electronic structures of the perovskites on the defect reaction energies and entropies as obtained from density function theory modeling and the role played by hydride defect species will also be discussed.

Lee, Yueh-Lin↗

Thermodynamic Cloud Phase Classifications Using Machine Learning at NSA and ANX

Vertically resolved thermodynamic cloud phase classifications are essential for studies of atmospheric cloud and precipitation processes. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) THERMOCLDPHASE Value-Added Product (VAP) uses a multi-sensor approach to classify thermodynamic cloud phase by combining lidar backscatter and depolarization, radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectral width, microwave radiometer-derived liquid water path, and radiosonde temperature measurements. The measured voxels are classified as ice, snow, mixed-phase, liquid (cloud water), drizzle, rain, and liq_driz (liquid+drizzle). We use this product as the ground truth to train three machine learning (ML) models to predict the thermodynamic cloud phase from multi-sensor remote sensing measurements taken at the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory: a random forest (RF), a multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a U-Net architecture. Evaluations against the outputs of the THERMOCLDPHASE VAP with one year of data show that the CNN outperforms the other two models, achieving the highest test accuracy, F1-score, and mean Intersection over Union (IOU). Analysis of ML confidence scores shows ice, rain, and snow have higher confidence scores, followed by liquid, while mixed, drizzle, and liq_driz have lower scores. Feature importance analysis reveals that the mean Doppler velocity and vertically resolved temperature are the most influential datastreams for ML thermodynamic cloud phase predictions. The ML models’ generalization capacity is further evaluated by applying them at another Arctic ARM site in Norway using data taken during the ARM Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) field campaign. Finally, we evaluate the ML models’ response to simulated instrument outages and signal degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New Grids of Pure-hydrogen White Dwarf NLTE Model Atmospheres and the HST/STIS Flux Calibration

Nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) calculations of hot white dwarf (WD) model atmospheres are the cornerstone of modern flux calibrations for the Hubble Space Telescope and for the CALSPEC database. These theoretical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) provide the relative flux versus wavelength, and only the absolute flux level remains to be set by reconciling the measured absolute flux of Vega in the visible with the Midcourse Space Experiment values for Sirius in the mid-IR. The most recent SEDs calculated by the tlusty and tmap NLTE model atmosphere codes for the primary WDs G191-B2B, GD 153, and GD 71 show improved agreement to 1% from 1500 Å to 30 μm, in comparison to the previous 1% consistency only from 2000 Å to 5 μm. These new NLTE models of hot WDs now provide consistent flux standards from the far UV to the mid-IR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A model of thermal creep and annealing in finite domains based on coupled dislocation climb and vacancy diffusion

Here, we develop a framework to investigate thermal creep and annealing in finite domains, where the climb motion of discrete dislocations is coupled to the diffusion of a continuum vacancy field. The model is first formulated in a continuum finite-deformation setting. All governing equations and boundary conditions are obtained from a unified irreversible thermodynamics principle. The resulting model couples a mechanical boundary value problem (BVP), a vacancy diffusion BVP, and the climb and glide motion of the discrete dislocation network within the crystal. The framework is then linearized for implementation in three-dimensional (3D) discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations for arbitrary anisotropic crystals. A solution scheme is developed based on the superposition principle, which is imposed weakly on the dislocation network to obtain a Galerkin solution for the nodal climb velocities. The framework includes diffusional (Nabarro–Herring) creep deformation as well as dislocation creep by climb-assisted-glide. The method is applied to simulate the annealing of vacancy loops in Al, with good agreement to experimental measurements by Silcox and Hirsch. We further consider the effects of annealing under stress, and of the proximity of the vacancy loops to loaded and free boundaries Simulations in polycrystalline materials are carried out to highlight the effects of the grain size on dislocation climb and vacancy loop annealing. The method is also applied to estimate the creep rate due to climb-assisted glide of jogged-screw dislocations in γ-TiAl, and results are compared to experiments by Viswanathan et al. Finally, we discuss the effects of uniaxial and hydrostatic stresses on the two diffusive deformation pathways of the material, namely Nabarro–Herring creep and dislocation climb.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Conservation of Dry Air, Water, and Energy in CAM and Its Potential Impact on Tropical Rainfall

Abstract For the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), an adjustment is needed to conserve dry air mass. This adjustment exposes an inconsistency in how CAM6’s energy budget incorporates water—in CAM6 water in the vapor phase has energy, but condensed phases of water do not. When water vapor condenses, only its latent energy is retained in the model, while its remaining internal, potential, and kinetic energy are lost. A global fixer is used in the default CAM6 model to maintain global energy conservation, but locally the energy tendency associated with water changing phase violates the divergence theorem. This error in energy tendency is intrinsically tied to the water vapor tendency, and reaches its highest values in regions of heavy rainfall, where the error can be as high as 40 W m −2 annually averaged. Several possible changes are outlined within this manuscript that would allow CAM6 to satisfy the divergence theorem locally. These fall into one of two categories: 1) modifying the surface flux to balance the local atmospheric energy tendency and 2) modifying the local atmospheric tendency to balance the surface plus top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. To gauge which aspects of the simulated climate are most sensitive to this error, the simplest possible change—where condensed water still does not carry energy and a local energy fixer is used in place of the global one—is implemented within CAM6. Comparing this experiment with the default configuration of CAM6 reveals precipitation, particularly its variability, to be highly sensitive to the energy budget formulation. Significance Statement This study examines and explains spurious regional sources and sinks of energy in a widely used climate model. These energy errors result from not tracking energy associated with water after it transitions from the vapor phase to either liquid or ice. Instead, the model used a global fixer to offset the energy tendency related to the energy sources and sinks associated with condensed water species. We replace this global fixer with a local one to examine the model sensitivity to the regional energy error and find a large sensitivity in the simulated hydrologic cycle. This work suggests that the underlying thermodynamic assumptions in the model should be revisited to build confidence in the model-simulated regional-scale water and energy cycles.

Harrop, Bryce E.↗

Structure and Reactivity of Binuclear Cu Active Sites in Cu-CHA Zeolites for Stoichiometric Partial Methane Oxidation to Methanol

Aluminosilicate zeolites exchanged with copper ions facilitate partial methane oxidation (PMO) to methanol in stoichiometric oxidation and reduction cycles, yet the identities of active Cu sites and details of the reaction mechanism remain debated. Here, we use the high-symmetry chabazite (CHA) zeolite framework as a model support to probe the relationship between bulk composition, Cu speciation, and response to various oxidizing and reducing treatments. Density functional theory and first-principles thermodynamics combined with statistical models reveal that Cu speciation and composition depend strongly on Al configuration and external gas conditions. Cu-CHA samples were synthesized to survey broad regions of Si/Al and Cu/Al composition space and framework Al proximity. Characterization by in situ X-ray absorption and UV–visible spectroscopy during exposure to different oxidation conditions reveal that the extent of Cu oxidation is sensitive to activation conditions and thus that both kinetic and thermodynamic factors influence Cu oxidizability in a given material. Similar characterizations during CO reduction reveal that CO titrates Cu 2+ in amounts suggesting the presence of both O- and O 2 -bridged species. In contrast, CH 4 and autoreduction (He) treatments reduce similar but smaller numbers of Cu sites than CO, implicating O 2 -bridged Cu dimers as a potential common intermediate in the former reduction pathways. Furthermore, a systematic increase in methanol yields (per Cu) in stoichiometric PMO cycles increase with the fraction of binuclear O x -bridged Cu sites suggests these species as active sites, as depicted in an updated PMO reaction mechanism.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials using MALAMUTE

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy aims to develop and qualify additively manufactured materials for nuclear applications. One key challenge to this is the microstructural variability observed in the additively manufactured products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-throughput experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate qualification. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the additive manufacturing process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture microstructural variability is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning models to develop a digital twin for additive manufacturing that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the additive process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the unique microstructural characteristics of additively manufactured materials. Microstructural features at the subgrain level, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for additively manufactured materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work focuses on capturing the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. In fiscal year 2025, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, in terms of the predictive capabilities of the physics-based and ML models, by adding the capabilities to capture subgrain-level micro-segregation during solidification using phase-field model and to predict the time-dependent dynamics of the AM process through the MOGPAR model. The alloy solidification model in MOOSE incorporates the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316 stainless steel. The model demonstrates the Cr and Ni segregation that occurs during solidification, including that the rate of solidification. The microstructural evolution model is connected to the process conditions via the surrogate model developed in this work. This enables predictions of the final microstructure in conjunctions with the manufacturing process. This work supports AMMT's rapid qualification goals by laying the foundation for an efficient and cost-effective model establishing the PSPP correlation for AM. The generated microstructures and predicted micro-segregation can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work helps to identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property and performance predictions of additively manufactured components. This work will also provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions and simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work can help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for additive manufacturing and accelerate the AMMT's qualification efforts.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Macroscopic Thermodynamic Reversibility in Quantum Many-Body Systems

The resource theory of thermal operations, an established model for small-scale thermodynamics, provides an extension of equilibrium thermodynamics to nonequilibrium situations. On a lattice of any dimension with any translation-invariant local Hamiltonian, we identify a large set of translation-invariant states that can be reversibly converted to and from the thermal state with thermal operations and a small amount of coherence. These are the spatially ergodic states, i.e., states that have sharp statistics for any translation-invariant observable, and mixtures of such states with the same thermodynamic potential. As an intermediate result, we show for a general state that if the gap between the min- and the max-relative entropies to the thermal state is small, then the state can be approximately reversibly converted to and from the thermal state with thermal operations and a small source of coherence. Our proof provides a quantum version of the Shannon-McMillan-Breiman theorem for the relative entropy and a quantum Stein’s lemma for ergodic states and local Gibbs states. In this work, our results provide a strong link between the abstract resource theory of thermodynamics and more realistic physical systems as we achieve a robust and operational characterization of the emergence of a thermodynamic potential in translation-invariant lattice systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Sequential Design of Experiments for Pilot Testing of Novel Solvent System

The CCSI2 program is supporting a six-month test campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) for evaluation of a novel water-lean solvent. This presentation describes CCSI2’s efforts in process modeling of the solvent system for both coal and natural gas-based flue gas sources and initial uncertainty quantification (UQ) work to estimate parametric uncertainty in key sub-models of interest (e.g., thermodynamics, mass transfer, reaction kinetics). Moreover, perspective is provided on how UQ and sequential design of experiments (SDoE) tools are used to assess the impact of model uncertainty on projected process performance, use this information to optimize data collection during the campaign, and refine process models through data collection. This framework is expected to reduce the overall model uncertainty, and thus risk associated with scale-up as the process moves towards commercialization.

Morgan, Joshua↗

Explicitly determined sea ice emissivity and emission temperature over the Arctic for surface–sensitive microwave channels

Data assimilation of satellite microwave measurements is one of the important keys to improving weather forecasting over the Arctic region. However, the use of surface-sensitive microwave-sounding channel measurements for data assimilation or retrieval has been limited, especially during winter, due to the poorly constrained sea ice emissivity. In this study, aiming at more use of those channel measurements in the data assimilation, we propose an explicit method for specifying the surface radiative boundary conditions (namely emissivity and emitting layer temperature of snow and ice). These were explicitly determined with a radiative transfer model for snow and ice and with snow/ice physical parameters (i.e., snow/ice depths and vertical distributions of temperature, density, salinity, and grain size) simulated from the thermodynamically-driven snow/ice growth model. Here we conducted 1-D Var experiments in order to examine whether this approach can help to use the surface-sensitive microwave temperature channel measurements over the Arctic sea ice region for data assimilation. Results show that (1) the surface-sensitive microwave channels can be used in the 1-D Var retrieval, and (2) the specification of the radiative boundary condition at the surface using the snow/sea ice emission model can significantly improve the atmospheric temperature retrieval, especially in the lower troposphere (500 hPa to surface). The successful retrieval suggests that useful information can be extracted from surface-sensitive microwave-sounding channel radiances over sea ice surfaces through the explicit determination of snow/ice emissivity and emitting layer temperature.

1-D Var retrieval↗

Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Arctic Alaska

Abstract Despite a need for accurate weather forecasts for societal and economic interests in the U.S. Arctic, thorough evaluations of operational numerical weather prediction in the region have been limited. In particular, the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP), which plays a key role in short-term forecasting and decision-making, has seen very limited assessment in northern Alaska, with most evaluation efforts focused on lower latitudes. In the present study, we verify forecasts from version 4 of the RAP against radiosonde, surface meteorological, and radiative flux observations from two Arctic sites on the northern Alaskan coastline, with a focus on boundary layer thermodynamic and dynamic biases, model representation of surface inversions, and cloud characteristics. We find persistent seasonal thermodynamic biases near the surface that vary with wind direction, and may be related to the RAP’s handling of sea ice and ocean interactions. These biases seem to have diminished in the latest version of the RAP (version 5), which includes refined handling of sea ice, among other improvements. In addition, we find that despite capturing boundary layer temperature profiles well overall, the RAP struggles to consistently represent strong, shallow surface inversions. Further, while the RAP seems to forecast the presence of clouds accurately in most cases, there are errors in the simulated characteristics of these clouds, which we hypothesize may be related to the RAP’s treatment of mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗