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DOE OSTI2025

Sizing and Location Selection of Medium‐Voltage Back‐to‐Back Converters for DER‐Dominated Distribution Systems

Medium‐voltage back‐to‐back (MVB2B) converters can connect two distribution systems and quantifiably transfer power between them. This function can enable the MVB2B converter to exchange distributed energy resource (DER)‐generated power between two systems and bring significant value to enhancing distribution system DER adoption. Our previous work analysed and demonstrated the value MVB2B converter can bring to DER integration. As continuous work, this paper presents a methodology that helps address the MVB2B converter sizing and location selection problem in distribution systems with high DER penetrations. The proposed methodology aims to address three critical problems for MVB2B converter implementation in the real world: (1) which distribution systems are better to be connected, (2) what converter size is appropriate for connecting the distribution systems, and (3) where the optimal connection points are in the systems for connecting the MVB2B converter. The proposed methodology has been demonstrated by case studies that include various scenarios involving distribution systems with different dominated load types and high photovoltaic penetrations. The results demonstrate that selecting the optimal converter size based on net revenue and time of return considerations leads to a balance between maximizing energy savings and minimizing financial payback periods. Furthermore, feeder pair selection based on load profile standard deviation effectively identifies systems that derive the greatest value from MVB2B integration. Finally, an optimized connection point selection approach using a voltage load sensitivity matrix ensures minimal system impact while facilitating efficient power exchange. These findings provide practical insights for the real‐world deployment of MVB2B converters to enhance DER hosting capacity and improve grid resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solving the nuclear pairing model with neural network quantum states

In this work, we present a variational Monte Carlo method that solves the nuclear many-body problem in the occupation number formalism exploiting an artificial neural network representation of the groundstate wave function. A memory-efficient version of the stochastic reconfiguration algorithm is developed to train the network by minimizing the expectation value of the Hamiltonian. We benchmark this approach against widely used nuclear many-body methods by solving a model used to describe pairing in nuclei for different types of interaction and different values of the interaction strength. Despite its polynomial computational cost, our method outperforms coupled-cluster and provides energies that are in excellent agreement with the numerically-exact full configuration interaction values.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Portable, heterogeneous ensemble workflows at scale using libEnsemble

libEnsemble is a Python-based toolkit for running dynamic ensembles, developed as part of the DOE Exascale Computing Project. The toolkit utilizes a unique generator–simulator–allocator paradigm, where generators produce input for simulators, simulators evaluate those inputs, and allocators decide whether and when a simulator or generator should be called. The generator steers the ensemble based on simulation results. Generators may, for example, apply methods for numerical optimization, machine learning, or statistical calibration. libEnsemble communicates between a manager and workers. Flexibility is provided through multiple manager–worker communication substrates each of which has different benefits. These include Python’s multiprocessing, mpi4py, and TCP. Multisite ensembles are supported using Balsam or Globus Compute. We overview the unique characteristics of libEnsemble as well as current and potential interoperability with other packages in the workflow ecosystem. We highlight libEnsemble’s dynamic resource features: libEnsemble can detect system resources, such as available nodes, cores, and GPUs, and assign these in a portable way. These features allow users to specify the number of processors and GPUs required for each simulation; and resources will be automatically assigned on a wide range of systems, including Frontier, Aurora, and Perlmutter. Such ensembles can include multiple simulation types, some using GPUs and others using only CPUs, sharing nodes for maximum efficiency. We also describe the benefits of libEnsemble’s generator–simulator coupling, which easily exposes to the user the ability to cancel, and portably kill, running simulations based on models that are updated with intermediate simulation output. We demonstrate libEnsemble’s capabilities, scalability, and scientific impact via a Gaussian process surrogate training problem for the longitudinal density profile at the exit of a plasma accelerator stage. In conclusion, the study uses gpCAM for the surrogate model and employs either Wake-T or WarpX simulations, highlighting efficient use of resources that can easily extend to exascale.

Dynamic ensembles↗

DOE OSTI2023

Self-healing, self-assembling islanded power systems using only local measurements

This SAND report collects the results from the LDRD project “SHAZAM”, which aimed to push the limits of performance for self-healing, self-assembling power systems whose sectionalizing and load-control agents rely on local measurements only (i.e., only what they can measure at their own terminals, with no data sharing between agents). This work includes self-networking microgrids. The key objectives of this work were a) to demonstrate how high the performance of local-measurement-only self-assembling power systems can be; and b) to solve certain technical problems associated with such systems, such as their inability to prevent the accidental formation of closed loops and their tendency to thermally overload some conductors. “SHAZAM” investigators a) demonstrated that the performance of such systems can be surprisingly high, b) demonstrated that such systems are quite robust to all kinds of variations, and c) developed and demonstrated solutions to several key challenges associated with this type of system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Stochastic Stability of Deep Markov Models

Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models which are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models have not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, we present a novel stability analysis method and provide sufficient conditions of DMM's stochastic stability. The proposed stability analysis is based on the contraction of probabilistic maps modeled by deep neural networks. We make connections between the spectral properties of neural network's weights and different types of used activation function on the stability and overall dynamic behavior of DMMs with Gaussian distributions. Based on the theory, we propose a few practical methods for designing constrained DMMs with guaranteed stability. We empirically substantiate our theoretical results via intuitive numerical experiments using the proposed stability constraints.

Drgona, Jan↗

DOE OSTI2024

R&D to Ensure a Scientific Basis for Qualification Tests and Standards (Final Report)

Project return on investment in a photovoltaic (PV) system depends increasingly on maintaining high energy yields, and the system lifetime is a major factor in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Thus, the rate of PV deployment and the success of these assets depends upon reliable long-term power generation. The overarching objective of this program is to improve photovoltaic (PV) module reliability via development of tests and standards. Where reliability problems or risk are discovered, we can design tests to ensure that these liabilities don't affect future generations of products. Customers can use these tests to understand which products are susceptible to certain degradation mechanisms, and manufacturers can use the tests to design unwanted characteristics out of their products. The work under this program identifies PV reliability needs, performs characterization that provides scientific understanding of targeted degradation mechanisms, and translates those data into practical and predictive test protocols and standards. Major accomplishments include: A model for polarization-type potential induced degradation (PID-p) was developed and validated against experimental data. NREL is currently leading a new edition of IEC 62804-1 for PID detection. PID-p can cause large losses in current and voltage for some module designs on cloudy days. Finite element modeling (FEM) and experiment was used to determine when cells crack in a module. It was shown that cells in landscape orientation are much more likely to crack than those on portrait orientation. Shortly thereafter, the first products with portrait-oriented cells were introduced. Studies of how to test for light and elevated temperature degradation (LeTID) culminated with the publication of IEC TS 63342. Software to predict the progression of LeTID was developed, validated, and made publicly available. Field validated tests and international standards for durability of PV module coatings abrasion, backsheets, and encapsulants were developed. Examples are IEC 62788-1-1, IEC 62788-2 ED2, IEC TS 62788-7-2, IEC 62788-7-3 ED1, IEC 63209-2. NREL led the development a high-temperature testing technical specification, and published guidelines that enable installers to determine whether higher-temperature testing is needed, simply based on location and mounting configuration. In a number of our case studies, variations in the bills of materials or workmanship have been associated with variations in reliability. These observations emphasize the importance of quality assurance to reliability. A framework for criticality (i.e. Pareto) analysis was developed and published. The framework helps us and other researchers determine what problems should be addressed for reliability research to have the biggest industry impact. NREL continues to participate actively in international standards development and stakeholder engagement activities, including organizing an annual PV Reliability Workshop. These activities are important for ensuring we address issues that are relevant and timely, and that we convey our results to those who may benefit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probing Sulfur Chemical and Electronic Structure with Experimental Observation and Quantitative Theoretical Prediction of Kα and Valence-to-Core Kβ X-ray Emission Spectroscopy

An extensive experimental and theoretical study of the Kα and Kβ high-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) of sulfur-bearing systems is presented here. This study encompasses a wide range of organic and inorganic compounds, including numerous experimental spectra from both prior published work and new measurements. Employing a linear-response time-dependent density functional theory (LR-TDDFT) approach, strong quantitative agreement is found in the calculation of energy shifts of the core-to-core Kα as well as the full range of spectral features in the valence-to-core Kβ spectrum. The ability to accurately calculate the sulfur Kα energy shift supports the use of sulfur Kα XES as a bulk-sensitive tool for assessing sulfur speciation. The fine structure of the sulfur Kβ spectrum, in conjunction with the theoretical results, is shown to be sensitive to the local electronic structure including effects of symmetry, ligand type and number, and, in the case of organosulfur compounds, to the nature of the bonded organic moiety. This agreement between theory and experiment, augmented by the potential for high-access XES measurements with the latest generation of laboratory-based spectrometers, demonstrates the possibility of broad analytical use of XES for sulfur and nearby third-row elements. The effective solution of the forward problem, i.e., successful prediction of detailed spectra from known molecular structure, also suggests future use of supervised machine learning approaches to experimental inference, as has seen recent interest for interpretation of X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Closure models for the feedback of energetic particles on plasma turbulence

Energetic particles interact with the plasma surrounding them, resonating with certain types of plasma waves to stabilize them while destabilizing others, and changing the character of the background turbulence in ways that have not been fully quantified or understood. Interaction with the turbulent background plasma is key to the acceleration of many types of energetic particles including high-energy cosmic rays, solar energetic particles, and pick-up ions. The acceleration of particles is a process that would ideally be described by a kinetic model, a type of model that follows a probability distribution function (PDF) for all particles in 7-dimensional (x, y, z, v x , v y , v z , t) space. Because of the high dimensionality of a kinetic model, simulations that solve kinetic equations use the largest computational resources currently available, and are yet unable to simulate a realistic number of particles, reach the large scales necessary for astrophysical problems, and use high-precision numerical methods. Two available alternatives to kinetic plasma models have been explored for this problem, with limited success. One is a multi-fluid model produced by a cumulant discarding closure, which evolves coupled equations for the velocity, magnetic field, and internal energy for both the background plasma and the fluid of energetic particles. However, simulations that solve multi-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are able to include the interaction with energetic particles only in crude ways, typically as an add-on pressure term. The second alternative is to use a hybrid method to couple a fluid description of the background plasma to a kinetic model or a Fokker–Planck model for the energetic particles. These methods are hampered by the physical modeling of the coupling. In this work, we develop a new model, which follows the PDF for all particles; this can be viewed as a step toward physical realism above a multi-fluid MHD model, while also being more computationally efficient than a kinetic model. The equations we develop model both the background plasma and the energetic particles self-consistently. Over the last decade, similar PDF methods have been developed to a high level of sophistication to model reactive flows and turbulent combustion for engineering applications. For treatment of the feedback of the energetic particles on a background plasma, a PDF closure approach should evaluate the mean characteristics, including the density, with better statistical quality than will particle-sampling procedures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrothermal Growth of Magnetically Frustrated Crystals: Lanthanide Stannate Pyrochlores as a Prototype

One important test bed system for frustrated magnetism is the pyrochlore lattice with the formula A2B2O7 in the cubic space group Fd3(-)m. Both the A and B sites occupy crystallographic trigonal sites and both sites possess a tetrahedral relationship with the other similar metal ion sites. These symmetry relationships generate a 3 D frustrated structure. In frustrated magnetic systems, typically a trivalent lanthanide ion occupies the A site and a magnetically silent tetravalent ion (Ti, Zr, Sn, etc.) occupies the B site. A classical problem related to the crystal growth of these compounds is sample quality. As refractory oxides, the traditional synthesis and crystal growth techniques require high temperatures, which creates two problems that are quite common and endemic to the pyrochlores. One is oxide lattice defects and the other is A/B site disorder. Both issues often occur in the same crystals at the same time and can have a significant impact on the study of physical properties. A hydrothermal approach can be applied to this problem. The relatively low crystal growth temperatures (600-720˚C) greatly minimize nonstoichiometry, lattice defects and A/B site disorder. The reduction of these pervasive imperfections significantly increases the quality of the observed physical property data. This talk will focus on the lanthanide stannates Ln2Sn2O7 as a prototype test bed of these systems. The stannates are among the few building blocks that can stabilize the pyrochlore structure type for all the lanthanides and they serve as an excellent proving ground for a wide range of physical properties. The synthesis and crystal growth of the lanthanide stannates will be reviewed, along with a discussion of some of the physical properties that result from the frustrated magnetic states of these low defect crystals.

Hydrothermal, crystal growth↗

DOE OSTI2021

A review of rare earth elements and yttrium in coal ash: Content, modes of occurrences, combustion behavior, and extraction methods

Rare earth elements and yttrium (REY) have attracted considerable attention over the last decade because of their vital roles in clean energy, consumer product, national defense and security applications, among other uses. Due to the retention of REY during coal burning, coal combustion ash is considered as potential alternative sources for REY. Understanding the content, speciation, retention and/or transformation behavior of REY during coal combustion not only expands our knowledge of the combustion behavior of the trace elements in coal, but also provides basis for modeling REY partitioning during coal combustion and for developing economically viable REY recovery technologies. This review makes a critical summary of recent progress in the study of REY in coal ash. The contents and the extraction potentials of REY in coal ash derived from 15 major coal-producing countries worldwide were summarized and evaluated. Various analytical methods for determining REY bulk contents and speciation, together with the solid sample pretreatment, analytical accuracy and precision, advantages and disadvantages were summarized and compared. Modern analytical approaches combined indirect methods (e.g., sequential extraction) shed light on the physical distribution, mineralogy, and the chemical state of REY in coal ash. Three types of REY occurrences in coal ash, including Si-Al glassy association, discrete minerals or compounds, and organic association (bound with unburned carbon) were defined in the review. The glassy association can be further divided into REY minerals closely bound to glass phases and dispersed throughout the glassy structure. REY partitioning in various emission streams, the size distribution, and their enrichment behavior in coal ash were discussed. Additionally, thermal behavior and transformation of various REY forms in coal during combustion process, including organic-associated REY, REY phosphates, REY carbonates, clay-bound REY and among others were summarized. Two possible retention mechanisms of REY by aluminosilicate glass at boiler temperature were proposed: the incorporation of the individual REY phases into the glass as inclusions and the diffusion of REY phases throughout Si-Al glass structures in the melting process. Feed coal mineral types, mineral-mineral associations, boiler conditions, and other factors control the retention process. After coal combustion, the speciation of REY in fly ash may be modified by the reactions of REY phases with flue gas components. Further, an overview of REY transformation mechanisms during coal combustion was deeply discussed. Finally, current extraction techniques for REY recovery from coal combustion ash were introduced. Future outlooks and research problems were also identified.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sierra/SolidMechanics Verification Report

This document presents the Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) verification plan. This plan centers on the tests in the Sierra/SM verification test suite, a subset of which are documented in the Sierra/SM Verification Tests Manual. Most of these tests are run nightly with the Sierra/SM code suite, and the results of the tests are checked against analytic solutions. For each of the tests presented in the Verification Tests Manual, the test setup, a description of the analytic solution, and comparison of the Sierra/SM code results to the analytic solution is provided. Mesh convergence is also checked on a nightly basis for several of these tests. This verification plan discusses these various types of tests and what they mean for Sierra/SM verification. Many other activities also contribute to Sierra/SM quality. These address code and solution quality and range from low-level unit tests, run nightly, up to full-fidelity acceptance tests, used to verify release stability. This acceptance test suite checks that new versions of Sierra/SM continue to yield the same answers for high-resolution analyst problems. Further code quality measures include an extensive suite of intermediate-size regression tests and automated nightly code quality checks. While these additional activities do not fall under a strict definition of verification, they greatly add to the quality, stability, and reliability of Sierra/SM, and are discussed here as well.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impedance sources (Z sources) with inherent fault protection for resilient and fire-free electricity grids

Modern societies would not survive without electricity and at the same time electrical faults could cause and have caused many catastrophes—mainly deadly fires—to our societies. There are two types of electricity sources: the voltage source such as generators, charged batteries and capacitors, and the current source such as charged inductors, current-regulated rectifiers, and superconducting magnetic energy storage. An “ideal” voltage source—that is often-sought-or-intentionally engineered—generates a constant voltage irrespective of its load current, and an “ideal” current source injects a constant current irrespective of its load voltage. However, two problems exist: (1) voltage or current sources do not represent many emerging natural/renewable energy sources such as wind turbine generators, photovoltaic cells, and fuel cells, whose output voltage and current are strongly dependent on each other, and (2) a short-circuit fault to an artificially-made and controlled “ideal” voltage source or an open-circuit fault to an “ideal” current source can cause catastrophic failures of the source itself and its surrounding circuits due to large (theoretically infinite) short-circuit current or open-circuit voltage. Here we introduce an impedance source concept to represent, characterize, and model those electricity sources whose output voltage and current are strongly dependent on each other. First, we found that many electric sources with no feedback (or active) control of their output voltage and/or current are a natural impedance source with inherent fault protection at short-circuit or open-circuit faults. Second, any electrical source can be artificially controlled to mimic a natural impedance source. Finally, we show how to apply natural impedance sources and nature-mimicking artificially-controlled sources to the electricity grid—the most complex machine ever made by human beings—to realize electricity grids that are naturally stable, self-protected against electrical faults, and resilient to natural and human-made events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Efficient Dimensionality Reduction and Surrogate Modeling of High-Dimensional Stress Fields

Tensor datatypes representing field variables like stress, displacement, velocity, etc., have increasingly become a common occurrence in data-driven modeling and analysis of simulations. Numerous methods [such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs)] exist to address the meta-modeling of field data from simulations. As the complexity of the simulation increases, so does the cost of acquisition, leading to limited data scenarios. Modeling of tensor datatypes under limited data scenarios remains a hindrance for engineering applications. Here, in this article, we introduce a direct image-to-image modeling framework of convolutional autoencoders enhanced by information bottleneck loss function to tackle the tensor data types with limited data. The information bottleneck method penalizes the nuisance information in the latent space while maximizing relevant information making it robust for limited data scenarios. The entire neural network framework is further combined with robust hyperparameter optimization. We perform numerical studies to compare the predictive performance of the proposed method with a dimensionality reduction-based surrogate modeling framework on a representative linear elastic ellipsoidal void problem with uniaxial loading. The data structure focuses on the low-data regime (fewer than 100 data points) and includes the parameterized geometry of the ellipsoidal void as the input and the predicted stress field as the output. The results of the numerical studies show that the information bottleneck approach yields improved overall accuracy and more precise prediction of the extremes of the stress field. Additionally, an in-depth analysis is carried out to elucidate the information compression behavior of the proposed framework.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2021

Point Source Likelihood Framework (psl) v1.0

PSL is a software framework for localizing radiation point sources in a 3D environment using a freely moving radiation detector system. The framework assumes a single point source of radiation is in the environment and uses known detector positions and orientations along with their radiation measurements to find the most likely location of the point source. This approach to the problem enables analyses that improve upon the capability of a standard Maximum Likelihood Expectation Maximization (MLEM) approach, such as setting a source detection threshold, finding a likelihood interval for the position of the source, finding a likelihood interval for the activity (intensity) of the source, determining whether more than one point source may be present, and generating a map of Minimum Detectable Activity (MDA) for a given source type. Applications include radiological and nuclear security, consequence management, decontamination and decommissioning of nuclear facilities, and radiological emergency response.

Joshi, Tenzing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗