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At least 631 records · Page 35

Fracture Sustainability in Enhanced Geothermal Systems: Experimental and Modeling Constraints

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer the potential for a much larger energy source than conventional hydrothermal systems. Hot, low-permeability rocks are prevalent at depth around the world, but the challenge of extracting thermal energy depends on the ability to create and sustain open fracture networks. Laboratory experiments were conducted using a suite of selected rock cores (granite, metasediment, rhyolite ash-flow tuff, and silicified rhyolitic tuff) at relevant pressures (uniaxial loading up to 20.7 MPa and fluid pressures up to 10.3 MPa) and temperatures (150–250 °C) to evaluate the potential impacts of circulating fluids through fractured rock by monitoring changes in fracture aperture, mineralogy, permeability, and fluid chemistry. Because a fluid in disequilibrium with the rocks (deionized water) was used for these experiments, there was net dissolution of the rock sample: this increased with increasing temperature and experiment duration. Thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) modeling simulations were performed for the rhyolite ash-flow tuff experiment to test the ability to predict the observed changes. These simulations were performed in two steps: a thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) simulation to evaluate the effects of compression of the fracture, and a thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) simulation to evaluate the effects of hydrothermal reactions on the fracture mineralogy, porosity, and permeability. Furthermore, these experiments and simulations point out how differences in rock mineralogy, fluid chemistry, and geomechanical properties influence how long asperity-propped fracture apertures may be sustained. Such core-scale experiments and simulations can be used to predict EGS reservoir behavior on the field scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Friction-mediated phase transition in confined active nematics

Using a minimal continuum model, we investigate the interplay between circular confinement and substrate friction in active nematics. Upon increasing the friction from low to high, we observe a dynamical phase transition from a circulating flow phase to an anisotropic flow phase in which the flow tends to align perpendicular to the nematic director at the boundary. We demonstrate that both the flow structure and dynamic correlations in the latter phase differ from those of an unconfined, active turbulent system and may be controlled by the prescribed nematic boundary conditions. Here, our results show that substrate friction and geometric confinement act as valuable control parameters in active nematics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Modulation of regional carbon uptake by AMOC and alkalinity changes in the subpolar North Atlantic under a warming climate

The slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated consequences on ocean carbon uptake could have large implications for the Earth's climate system and its global carbon cycle. This study analyzes ten Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reveals that the regional carbon uptake in the subpolar North Atlantic under a high CO 2 emission scenario moderately correlates with the decline in AMOC at 40°N. AMOC transports warm and salty subtropical waters to the subpolar regions. Models with stronger AMOC slowdown generally exhibit weaker surface warming and larger decline of surface salinity and alkalinity. We consider two plausible mechanisms linking the AMOC slowdown to the decline of regional CO 2 uptake: the reduction in surface alkalinity and diminished subduction. The decline of surface salinity and alkalinity reduces the ocean's capacity to buffer acids leading to a reduced CO 2 uptake. This important contribution is unique to the North Atlantic. Diminished convective mixing and subduction of surface water can further decrease the downward transport of anthropogenic carbon, as also shown in previous research. The centennial trends of p CO 2 are decomposed into four components driven by temperature, salinity, alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon, revealing that alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon are both significant contributors. The alkalinity-driven p CO 2 essentially follows surface salinity, establishing the linkage between AMOC slowdown and alkalinity decline. Our results indicate that alkalinity changes are important for the interplay between AMOC and the regional carbon sequestration ability across the late 20 th and the entirety of the 21 st century in the subpolar North Atlantic.

AMOC↗

Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical Modeling and Simulation of Sodium-Potassium–Cooled MARVEL Microreactor Core

The U.S. Department of Energy's Microreactor Program, with Idaho National Laboratory's development of a nuclear microreactor applications test bed named MARVEL, aims to support R&D for the deployment of small, transportable reactors across civilian, industrial, and defense sectors. The MARVEL microreactor, an 85-kWth thermal fission reactor, incorporates TRIGA nuclear fuel and a sodium-potassium eutectic as its primary coolant, designed for safety and efficiency, with natural circulation eliminating the risk of critical heat flux conditions. The reliance on natural circulation for primary cooling means the reactor avoids using fuel spacers to minimize core pressure drop, which could disrupt the primary coolant's natural flow. However, the reactor core’s tight P/D ratio of 1.05, in the absence of fuel spacers, could pose a risk of fuel rod contact and increased peak cladding temperatures. To ensure the reactor safety, this study conducted computational modeling and simulations to investigate the reactor's thermal-hydraulic-mechanical characteristics, including the reactor core heat transfer coefficients, the potential for rod-to-rod contact, and assessed its impact on peak cladding temperature and overall reactor safety. The computational analyses of the MARVEL microreactor core revealed that the thermal deformation of fuel rods under worst-case scenario may lead to the fuel rod contact, but the peak cladding temperatures will remain significantly lower than the safety criteria, ensuring the safety operation reactor without fuel spacers under normal operating conditions.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Using ‘heat tagging’ to understand the remote influence of atmospheric diabatic heating through long-range transport

In the circulating atmosphere, diabatic heating influences the potential temperature content of air masses far from where the heating occurs. Budgets that balance local diabatic sources with local heat divergence and storage do not retain information about this remote influence, which requires air-mass tracking. In this study, a process based, passive-tracer diagnostic, called heat tagging, is introduced. Heat tagging locally decomposes the potential temperature into contributions from the distinctive diabatic processes that generate them, wherever they occur. The distribution, variability and transport of atmospheric heat tags are studied in the relatively simple setting of an idealized aquaplanet model. Heat tags from latent heating are generated in the deep tropics and the midlatitude storm track and then transported throughout the troposphere. By contrast dry sensible heat tags are enhanced near the surface, and radiative tags are mainly confined to the stratosphere. As a result, local heat transport, variability of potential temperature and global poleward heat transport are dominated by heat tags related to latent heating, with heat tags from sensible and radiative heating only making contributions in the polar near surface and the stratosphere respectively. Heat tagging thus quantifies how water vapor and latent heating link the structural characteristics of the atmosphere and illustrates the importance of the hydrological cycle in poleward energy transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Novel Recombinant Influenza Virus Neuraminidase Vaccine Candidate Stabilized by a Measles Virus Phosphoprotein Tetramerization Domain Provides Robust Protection from Virus Challenge in the Mouse Model

Influenza virus infections remain a high risk to human health, causing up to 650,000 deaths worldwide every year, with an enormous burden on the health care system. Since currently available seasonal vaccines are only partially effective and often mismatched to the circulating strains, a broader protective influenza virus vaccine is needed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

EGS Collab Experiment 2: Microseismic Monitoring

This dataset contains continuous seismic waveform data recorded during stimulation and thermal circulation tests for the Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) Collab Experiment #2, conducted from February to September 2022 at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. This experiment aimed to study and validate models of geothermal systems by injecting high-pressure fluids into rock formations 1200-1500 meters below the surface, inducing microseismic events. The seismic monitoring system included 16 three-component accelerometers and a 24-channel hydrophone array, installed in boreholes surrounding the test area. Data were recorded at high sampling rates using a continuous waveform recording system to monitor seismic activity in real time. The dataset contains the raw data stored in binary format, with files named based on timestamps, and includes calibration certificates for some sensors to facilitate corrections to real units. Users are strongly advised to consult the accompanying detailed report, which outlines the experimental setup, sensor specifications, installation procedures, and data processing methods. The report also describes important nuances, such as the hardware filters on hydrophones, sensor calibration details, and the naming conventions for the recorded data. Proper use of this dataset may require familiarity with seismic data analysis tools, such as the Obspy Python package, and an understanding of the SEED naming conventions used for channel identification.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with EBR-II Tests Performed During the SHRT Testing Program

The EBR-II sodium-cooled fast reactor supported a wide range of fast reactor research activities. The final fifteen years of operations at EBR-II were used for experiments and tests to demonstrate the importance of passive safety in liquid metal reactors and the capability of such systems to provide strong passive responses during off-normal conditions. The Shutdown Heat Removal Test program at EBR-II provided test data supporting the validation of computer codes for design, licensing, and operation of LMRs, among other objectives. The program included nearly sixty tests, most of which were protected and unprotected loss of flow and loss of heat sink tests run at various initial powers and flow rates. This report documents the results of modeling and simulation of tests from the Shutdown Heat Removal Test program to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. SHRT-17 was a protected loss of flow test where a loss of electrical power to all sodium coolant pumps was simulated to demonstrate the effectiveness of natural circulation cooling characteristics. SHRT-45R was an unprotected loss of flow test where the control rod scram function of the plant protection system was disabled to demonstrate the effectiveness of EBR-II’s passive reactivity feedbacks. BOP-301 and BOP-302R were unprotected loss of heat sink tests that demonstrated how reactivity feedback effects driven by changes to the core inlet temperature can shut down the fission process. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project for benchmark analysis of the EBR-II Shutdown Heat Removal Tests. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 models originally developed for the CRP have been modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Differences between the predicted and measured test data were explored and the causes of these differences were identified as being due to modeling approximations, uncertainty in transient component behavior, and instrumentation uncertainties. Overall, it was concluded that for SHRT-17, SHRT-45R, BOP-301, and BOP-302R there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Incorporating the Effect of Large‐Scale Vertical Motion on Convection Through Convective Mass Flux Adjustment in E3SMv2

Abstract Recent observational studies suggest that the large‐scale dynamical forcing (vertical motion) plays important roles in deep convection development. In this study we propose a convective mass flux adjustment (MAdj) approach to represent the dynamical effects of large‐scale vertical motion on convection in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). With MAdj, convection is enhanced (suppressed) when there is large‐scale ascending (descending) motion at the planetary boundary layer top. The coupling of convection with large‐scale circulation significantly improves the simulation of climate variability in E3SMv2 across multiple scales from the diurnal cycle, convectively coupled equatorial waves, to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The standard E3SMv2 tends to simulate overly weak diurnal amplitude of precipitation and overly weak variance of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin and westward inertio‐gravity (WIG) waves. It also fails to simulate the essential characteristics of the MJO: continuous eastward propagation. With MAdj, the amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation is systematically increased and its probability density distribution is much closer to observations. The MAdj can also simulate more realistic eastward propagation of the MJO and much stronger convectively coupled Kelvin and WIG waves. Moreover, the MAdj approach slightly improves the climatology simulations in precipitation, cloud, radiation, circulation, temperature, and moisture fields, with overall root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of major climatological fields reduced by about 2%. The MAdj approach suppresses excessive grid‐scale precipitation, reducing precipitation wet biases over South China Sea, Philippine Sea, Himalayas, and South Pacific Convergence Zone in western Pacific in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex “Gigafire” occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subpolar North Atlantic Water Mass Transformation and Overturning in Eddying and Non‐Eddying Simulations

Buoyancy forcing in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) is an important driver of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To advance understanding of the mechanisms connecting the two processes and their relative importance in sub-basins within the SPNA, we apply the Water Mass Transformation Framework to a matched-pair of forced, ocean-sea ice simulations configured at eddying and non-eddying resolution. Within the first decade of simulation, the non-eddying simulation produces a weak AMOC, ~11 Sv at 26.5 ° N, while the AMOC in the eddying simulation is more realistic and is thus analyzed for comparison. Surface water mass transformation and boundary transport are calculated in both density and temperature–salinity coordinates in three separate deep water formation regions, the Iceland Basin, the Irminger Sea and Labrador Sea, during the first decade of both simulations. We identify strong surface freshening in the Irminger and Labrador seas in the non-eddying simulation during the AMOC decline. This freshening significantly reduces the density of the surface outcrops where surface water mass formation occurs, essentially removing this contribution to deep water formation. Concurrently, boundary transports in these two regions are warmer and saltier in the non-eddying simulation compared to the eddying simulation where the density of surface water mass formation is stable. The warming and salinification of boundary transports in the non-eddying simulation is interpreted as an obstacle to deep water formation. Labrador Sea surface water mass transformation is important, despite its small contribution to buoyancy overturning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Single-pass Cr:ZnSe amplifier for broadband infrared undulator radiation

An amplifier based on a highly-doped chromium zinc-selenide (Cr:ZnSe) crystal is proposed to increase the pulse energy emitted by an electron bunch after it passes through an undulator magnet. The primary motivation is a possible use of the amplified undulator radiation emitted by a beam circulating in a particle accelerator storage ring to increase the particle beam’s phase-space density—a technique dubbed optical stochastic cooling (OSC). This paper uses a simple four energy level model to estimate the single-pass gain of Cr:ZnSe and presents numerical calculations combined with wave-optics simulations of undulator radiation to estimate the expected properties of the amplified undulator wave-packet.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

E3SM Water Cycle Visualization Project (Final Report)

Motivated by the need to improve visualizations of Earth's complex water cycle, this team embarked on non-trivial tasks to push from traditional methods of viewing data from simulations as static line graphs and contour plots into new realms with multiple dimensions (three spatial dimensions and the time component) viewable at once. To do this, we chose to feature the extremes in the general circulation of the atmosphere because these Earth system elements are short-lived, but impactful events. We used simulation data produced by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM),which is designed to answer DOE science questions using DOE computing facilities. The E3SM project includes three sets of simulation experiments: cryosphere, bio-geochemical cycles, and the water cycle. The water cycle experiment campaign includes a set of simulations designed to understand how the water cycle will change in coming decades under a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensor System and Observer Algorithm Co-Design For Modern Internal Combustion Engine Air Management Based on H2 Optimization

This paper outlines a novel sensor selection and observer design algorithm for linear time-invariant systems with both process and measurement noise based on H 2 optimization to optimize the tradeoff between the observer error and the number of required sensors. The optimization problem is relaxed to a sequence of convex optimization problems that minimize the cost function consisting of the H 2 norm of the observer error and the weighted l 1 norm of the observer gain. An LMI formulation allows for efficient solution via semi-definite programing. The approach is applied here, for the first time, to a turbo-charged spark-ignited engine using exhaust gas circulation to determine the optimal sensor sets for real-time intake manifold burnt gas mass fraction estimation. Simulation with the candidate estimator embedded in a high fidelity engine GT-Power model demonstrates that the optimal sensor sets selected using this algorithm have the best H 2 estimation performance. Sensor redundancy is also analyzed based on the algorithm results. This algorithm is applicable for any type of modern internal combustion engines to reduce system design time and experimental efforts typically required for selecting optimal sensor sets.

Zhang, Xu↗

Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat to non-immune persons so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end in a population by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ0, the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of any interventions. The value of ℛ0 relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), which is given by 1−1/ℛ0. When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 to escape immunity). Here, we report state-level ℛ0 estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming, indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states and that reaching herd immunity will be more difficult in some states than others. ℛ0 estimates were obtained from compartmental models via the next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized using regional daily confirmed case reports of COVID-19 from 21 January 2020 to 21 June 2020. Our ℛ0 estimates characterize the infectiousness of ancestral strains, but they can be used to determine HITs for a distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such as SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if the relative infectiousness of the strain can be ascertained. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, we found that no state had achieved herd immunity as of 20 September 2021.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Convection-permitting hindcasting of diurnal variation of Mei-yu rainfall over East China with a global variable-resolution model

Two sets of 48-hr hindcast experiments for Mei-yu season using non-hydrostatic global variable-resolution model (MPAS-Atmosphere) with regional refinement at 4km resolution (V4km) and uniform 60km resolution (U60km) are first-time conducted to attempt at simulating the Mei-yu rainfall in 2015 over East China. The analysis focuses on the seasonal average of diurnal variation of precipitation amount (PA), intensity (PI), and frequency (PF). Both simulations reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of PA. V4km is more skillful in simulating the spatial distributions and magnitudes of PF and PI. The diurnal cycle of Mei-yu rainfall shows a major early morning peak and a minor afternoon peak, contributed by precipitation during two sub-periods with distinct synoptic circulations. With strong Mei-yu in the first sub-period, the diurnal variation of PA is controlled by nocturnal southwesterly jet. V4km overestimates the morning peak mainly due to its bias in simulating boundary layer inertial oscillation. Although differences in PA between the simulations are small, U60km overestimates PF and underestimates PI. With weak Mei-yu in the second sub-period, the diurnal variation of PA is controlled by both synoptic circulation and local convection. At both resolutions, deviations in the large-scale circulation modulated by a few typhoons lead to positive biases in the morning peak of PA. After removing the typhoon impacts, V4km captures the observed diurnal cycle of PA well, while U60km significantly underestimates PA and PI particularly in the afternoon. Future studies focusing on advancing modeling of southwesterly jet and typhoons may further improve convection permitting simulation of Mei-yu rainfall.

Xu, Mingyue↗

Back-to-back high category atmospheric river landfalls occur more often on the west coast of the United States

Abstract The catastrophic December 2022-January 2023 nine atmospheric rivers in California underscore the urgent need to better understand such high-risk weather extremes. Here we applied a machine learning clustering tool to understand the activity of atmospheric river clusters. Reanalysis results show that clusters with high density, that is the time fraction under atmospheric river conditions within a cluster, exhibit more frequent high-category atmospheric rivers, alongside an increased likelihood for extreme precipitation and severe land surface responses. The key circulation patterns of atmospheric river clusters are primarily attributed to subseasonal variability. Furthermore, the occurrence and density of atmospheric river clusters are modulated by the daily variability of the geopotential height field. Climate model projections suggest that atmospheric river clusters with higher density and higher categories will be more frequent as warming level increases. Our findings emphasize the important role of atmospheric river clusters in the development of climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗