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At least 631 records · Page 35

Data from: Candidate variants for additive and interactive effects on bioenergy traits in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) identified by genome-wide association analyses

Switchgrass is a promising herbaceous energy crop, but further gains in biomass yield and quality must be achieved to enable a viable bioenergy industry. Developing DNA markers can contribute to such progress, but depiction of genetic bases should be reliable, involving not only simple additive marker effects but also interactions with genetic backgrounds, e.g., ecotypes, or synergies with other markers. We analyzed plant height, carbon content, nitrogen content, and mineral concentration in a diverse panel consisting of 512 genotypes of upland and lowland ecotype. We performed association analyses based on exome capture sequencing and tested 439,170 markers for marginal effects, but also 83,290 markers for marker-by-ecotype interactions and up to 311,445 marker pairs for pairwise interactions. Analyses of pairwise interactions focused on subsets of marker pairs preselected based on marginal marker effects, gene ontology annotation, and pairwise marker associations. Our tests identified 12 significant effects. Homology and gene expression information corroborated seven effects and indicated plausible causal pathways: flowering time and lignin synthesis for plant height; plant growth and senescence for carbon content and mineral concentration. Four pairwise interactions were detected, including three interactions preselected based on pairwise marker correlations. Furthermore, one marker-by-ecotype interaction and one pairwise interaction were confirmed in an independent switchgrass panel. Our analyses identified reliable candidate variants for important bioenergy traits in switchgrass. Moreover, they exemplified the importance of interactive effects for the depiction of genetic bases, and illustrated the usefulness of preselection of marker pairs for identifying pairwise marker interactions in association testing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Iridate Li8IrO 6 : An Antiferromagnetic Insulator

In this work, a polycrystalline iridate Li 8 IrO 6 material was prepared via heating Li 2 O and IrO 2 starting materials in a sealed quartz tube at 650 °C for 48 h. The structure was determined from Rietveld refinement of room-temperature powder neutron diffraction data. Li 8 IrO 6 adopts the nonpolar space group $R\bar{3}$ with Li atoms occupying the tetrahedral and octahedral sites, which is supported by the electron diffraction and solid-state 7Li NMR. This results in a crystal structure consisting of LiO 4 tetrahedral layers alternating with mixed IrO 6 and LiO 6 octahedral layers along the crystallographic c -axis. The +4 oxidation state of Ir 4+ was confirmed by near-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy. An in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction study of Li 8 IrO 6 indicates that the sample is stable up to 1000 °C and exhibits no structural transitions. Magnetic measurements suggest long-range antiferromagnetic ordering with a Néel temperature (TN) of 4 K, which is corroborated by heat capacity measurements. The localized effective moment $μ_{\text{eff}}$ (Ir) = 1.73 $μ_{\text{B}}$ and insulating character indicate that Li 8 IrO 6 is a correlated insulator. First-principles calculations support the nonpolar crystal structure and reveal the insulating behavior both in paramagnetic and antiferromagnetic states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparison Between Lidar and Nephelometer Measurements of Aerosol Hygroscopicity at the Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Site

Aerosol hygroscopicity has a significant effect on radiative properties of aerosols. Here a lidar method, applicable to cloud-capped, well-mixed atmospheric boundary layers, is employed to determine the hygroscopic growth factor f(RH) under unperturbed, ambient atmospheric conditions. The data used for the analysis were collected under a wide range of atmospheric aerosol levels during both routine measurement periods and during the intensive operations period (IOP) in May 2003 at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Climate Research Facility in Oklahoma, USA, as part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. There is a good correlation (approx. 0.7) between a lidar-derived growth factor (measured over the range 85% RH to 96% RH) with a nephelometer-derived growth factor measured over the RH range 40% to 85%. For these RH ranges, the slope of the lidar-derived growth factor is much steeper than that of the nephelometer-derived growth factor, reflecting the rapid increase in particle size with increasing RH. The results are corroborated by aerosol model calculations of lidar and nephelometer equivalent f(RH) based on in situ aerosol size and composition measurements during the IOP. It is suggested that the lidar method can provide useful measurements of the dependence of aerosol optical properties on relative humidity, and under conditions closer to saturation than can currently be achieved with humidified nephelometers.

Pahlow, M.↗

Investigating the molecule-substrate interaction of prototypic tetrapyrrole compounds: Adsorption and self-metalation of porphine on Cu(111)

We report on the adsorption and self-metalation of a prototypic tetrapyrrole compound, the free-base porphine (2H-P), on the Cu(111) surface. Our multitechnique study combines scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) results with near-edge X-ray absorption fine-structure (NEXAFS) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) data whose interpretation is supported by density functional theory calculations. In the first layer in contact with the copper substrate the molecules adsorb coplanar with the surface as shown by angle-resolved NEXAFS measurements. The quenching of the first resonance in the magic angle spectra of both carbon and nitrogen regions indicates a substantial electron transfer from the substrate to the LUMO of the molecule. The stepwise annealing of a bilayer of 2H-P molecules sequentially transforms the XP and NEXAFS signatures of the nitrogen regions into those indicative of the coordinated nitrogen species of the metalated copper porphine (Cu-P), i.e., we observe a temperature-induced self-metalation of the system. Pre- and post-metalation species are clearly discriminable by STM, corroborating the spectroscopic results. Similar to the free-base porphine, the Cu-P adsorbs flat in the first layer without distortion of the macrocycle. Additionally, the electron transfer from the copper surface to the molecule is preserved upon metalation. This behavior contrasts the self-metalation of tetraphenylporphyrin (2H-TPP) on Cu(111), where both the molecular conformation and the interaction with the substrate are strongly affected by the metalation process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reassessing Hybrid Vigor or Hybrid Dysfunction Using Physiological Trade-Offs in an Endangered Salamander System

Fitness of interspecific hybrids can be higher or lower than that of their parental genotypes, with major ramifications for evolution and conservation. A recent study found that hybrid tiger salamanders had higher metabolic rates than their parental forms. Specifically, the ratio of resting metabolic rate to water loss, which was used as a measure of performance, was greater in hybrids. Recent genetic research showed that over half of the experimental subjects in that study were genetically pure California tiger salamanders (Ambystoma californiense) misclassified as hybrids. We reanalyzed the data using the corrected identification of hybrids and parentals. As expected, updating the classification revealed even stronger evidence for differences between hybrids and parentals. Hybrids had higher resting metabolic rates and greater water loss than parentals. The ratio of resting metabolic rate to water loss was also higher in hybrids. However, we suggest that this ratio might not be a positive measure of salamander performance. Higher metabolic rate means higher energy expenditure, and higher water loss suggests increased risk of desiccation. Both are major challenges for terrestrial amphibians, especially salamanders, which are hypothesized to be low-energy, low-water-loss specialists. Under this hypothesis, the ratio of energy expenditure to water loss is a ratio of two costs rather than a ratio of benefit to cost. While our analyses corroborate and strengthen the previous statistical results, we suggest that high resting metabolic rate is better interpreted as hybrid dysfunction, not vigor. Here, both hypotheses are speculative, and specific research on the fitness effects of these physiological differences is needed to resolve this important ecological question.

Ambystoma californiense↗

Quasi-Steady-State Polarization Reveals the Interplay of Capacitive and Faradaic Processes in Capacitive Deionization

We employ slow cyclic voltammetry to study the quasi-steady-state capacitive deionization (CDI) of aerated 10 mM NaCl from V cell =-0.2 to 2 V. The method allows for the deconvolution of capacitive and faradaic processes, which are significant even at low voltage, in conjunction with pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), and electrode potential measurements. The pH at three locations and effluent DO data identify asymmetric electrosorption in the cell configured with pristine activated carbon electrodes, where charge is irreversibly consumed to produce H + /OH - instead of reversibly adsorbing Cl - /Na + . Implementing a reference electrode resolves ion adsorption as a function of the individual potential at each electrode. Near-electrode pH probes reveal pH environments that diverge by up to 8 units during cell polarization and allow more accurate calculation of faradaic redox potentials in a flow-by CDI cell. In the aerated NaCl solution that will be relevant to industrial-scale water treatment, we find that DO reduction occurs to a greater degree than Na + adsorption at the cathode until DO removal becomes mass transfer limited at <-0.2 V vs. SHE. Two cell architectures – flow-by and flow-through – corroborate our findings. Finally, we reconcile all measurements to generate a map displaying how the potential is partitioned amongst the capacitive and faradaic processes occurring during CDI operation over a 2.2 V window.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

First-principles Studies of Tritium Reactivity and Diffusivity on Defective and Carbon Doped Surfaces of $\gamma$-LiAlO 2 Pellets (Tritium Science Program Report FY 2019 )

In tritium-producing burnable absorber rods (TPBARs), tritium ($^{3}_{1}$H,T) is produced in 6 Li isotope enriched γ-LiAlO 2 ceramic pellet. However, a better understanding of $^{3}_{1}$H transport through the pellets, getters and the barrier/cladding system is hampered by a lack of fundamental data about the $^{3}_{1}$H solubility and diffusivity. In the process of $^{3}_{1}$H diffusion from bulk γ-LiAlO 2 to its surface, it is possible that $^{3}_{1}$H atoms bind with surface atoms or become trapped at vacancies sites. By increasing the number of $^{3}_{1}$H diffused from bulk to surface, upon recombination and desorption from surface sites, they will escape from the γ-LiAlO 2 surface to form different $^{3}_{1}$H species (possibly being as T, T 2 , T 2 O, OT, or CT x (x=1-4, with C impurity present at a 100-600 ppm level in pellets) that need to be identified and can become captured by the getter. Therefore, exploring the $^{3}_{1}$H diffusion from bulk to surface, corroborated with surface adsorption, diffusion and recombination and followed by desorption from surface as various types of $^{3}_{1}$H species becomes a very important task as an integral part of the study of $^{3}_{1}$H solubility and diffusivity in the pellets.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of the Energy, Hygrothermal, and Thermal Capacity Performance of Cross-Laminated Timber

Cross-laminated timber (CLT) construction is gaining momentum in the US because it offers multiple advantages over traditional construction methods. Benefits that have received the most attention focus on constructability, the environment, and protection (e.g., blast resistance), although CLT construction is likely to offer other benefits, as well. Still, these have not been studied at length because such evaluations are costly, requiring long-term assessments in an actual building and specialized technical knowledge. Among the possible benefits, CLT construction likely provides a higher-performing building envelope. Using CLT panels to enclose a building means fewer joints in the opaque envelope than what is required in traditional stick-framed construction. Fewer joints mean fewer locations where the air- and water-resistive barrier (WRB) could be compromised; thus, a CLT building enclosure may require less maintenance and have a longer lifespan than a traditionally built structure because of fewer air and water leaks. In addition, CLT’s thermal mass moderates indoor temperatures, allowing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to operate more efficiently during peak hours, reducing operational energy consumption throughout the lifetime of the CLT building (Salonvaara et al., 2022). Furthermore, more stable indoor temperatures can increase occupant comfort. The CLT’s thermal mass can also reduce energy costs by adjusting to utility time-of-use pricing without affecting occupant comfort. The ability of CLT buildings to bridge periods without HVAC operation prepares them for future grid interaction and provides a certain level of resilience against power outages. Researchers have attempted to quantify these benefits; however, their work is based on simplified simulations with numerous assumptions. To correctly understand the benefits, an actual building must be monitored. Therefore, information needs to be gathered on indoor and outdoor temperatures, HVAC energy consumption, thermostat setpoints, temperatures, and thermal transport in CLT components to comprehend how these parameters are affected by the CLT’s thermal mass. These data are needed to reduce the number of assumptions and calibrate simulation models to optimize HVAC controls to minimize overall energy consumption, reduce energy use and higher fees during peak demand, and maintain occupant comfort. Additionally, the calibrated simulation model allows the optimization exercise to be repeated in various US climates. Potential benefits can be tailored to buildings in various locations, and decisions can be made on where CLT construction could be most advantageous. Furthermore, monitoring and simulation results are needed to evaluate the durability of the CLT structures in different climates. This project’s researchers gathered information to help understand and quantify the benefits of CLT buildings concerning operational energy, moderated indoor temperatures, and comfort; the dynamic operation to provide grid services; and resilience in times of power outage. Through the corroboration of simulation models with real-world measurements, this study paves the way for extrapolating findings to other climatic zones and building typologies, thereby broadening the understanding of CLT’s multifaceted benefits and reinforcing its position as a material of choice in sustainable construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Redetermination of the Dissociation Energy of MgO(+)

In 1986, we reported a dissociation energy (D(sub 0) of 2.31 eV for the X(sup 2)Pi ground state of MgO(+). This value was determined by computing the dissociation energy to the Mg(2+) + O(-) limit and adjusting the value to the Mg(+) + O limit using the experimental Ionization Potential (IP) of Mg(+) and the Electron Affinity (EA) of O. The success of this method relies on the assumption that there is little covalent contribution to the bonding. The very small (0.04 eV) correlation contribution to the binding energy was taken as corroboration for the validity of this approach. Our earlier theoretical value was estimated to be accurate to at least 0.2 eV. It is in excellent agreement with the subsequent value of 2.30 +/- 0.13 eV determined by Freiser and co-workers from photodissociation experiments. It is also consistent with the upper (less than 3.1 eV) and lower (greater than 1.1 eV) bounds determined by Rowe obtained by studying the reactions of Mg(+) with 03 and NO2. However, it is inconsistent with an upper bound of 1.7 eV reported by Kappes and Staley based on their failure to observe MgO(+) in the reaction of Mg(+) with N2O. The picture became somewhat clouded, however, by the recent guided-ion beam mass spectrometric studies of Dalleska and Armentrout. Their initial analysis of the reaction data for Mg(+) + O2 lead to a bond dissociation energy of 2.92 +/- 0.25 eV, which is considerably larger than the value of 2.47 +/- 0.06 eV deduced from their studies of the Mg(+)+NO2 reaction.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

Spectroscopic and Structural Investigations of alpha-beta-, and gamma-AIH3 Phases

With its reputation as a high-energy density fuel, aluminum hydride (AlH{sub 3}) has received renewed attention as a material that is particularly suitable, not only for hydrogen storage but also for rocket propulsion. While the various phases of AlH{sub 3} have been investigated theoretically, there is a shortage of experimental studies corroborating the theoretical findings. In response to this, we present here an investigation of these compounds based primarily on two research areas in which there is the greatest scarcity of information in the literature, namely Raman and infrared (IR) absorption analysis. To the authors knowledge, this is the first report of experimental far-IR absorption results on these compounds. Two different samples prepared by broadly similar ethereal reactions of AlCl{sub 3} with LiAlH{sub 4} were analyzed. Both Raman and IR absorption measurements indicate that one sample is purely {gamma}-AlH{sub 3} and that the other is a mixture of {alpha}-, {beta}-, and {gamma}-AlH{sub 3} phases. X-ray diffraction confirms the spectroscopic findings, most notably for the {beta}-AlH{sub 3} phase, for which optical spectroscopic data are reported here for the first time.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Position Assignment and Oxidation State Recognition of Fe and Co Centers in Heterometallic Mixed-Valent Molecular Precursors for the Low-Temperature Preparation of Target Spinel Oxide Materials

A series of mixed-valent, heterometallic (mixed-transition metal) diketonates that can be utilized as prospective volatile single-source precursors for the low-temperature preparation of M x M' 3–x O 4 spinel oxide materials is reported. Three iron–cobalt complexes with Fe/Co ratios of 1:1, 1:2, and 2:1 were synthesized by several methods using both solid-state and solution reactions. On the basis of nearly quantitative reaction yields, elemental analyses, and comparison of metal–oxygen bonds with those in homometallic analogues, heterometallic compounds were formulated as [Fe III (acac) 3 ][Co II (hfac) 2 ] (1), [Co II (hfac) 2 ][Fe III (acac) 3 ][Co II (hfac) 2 ] (2), and [Fe II (hfac) 2 ][Fe III (acac) 3 ][Co II (hfac) 2 ] (3). In the above heteroleptic complexes, the Lewis acidic, coordinatively unsaturated CoII/FeII centers chelated by two hexafluoroacetylacetonate (hfac) ligands maintain bridging interactions with oxygen atoms of acetylacetonate (acac) groups that chelate the neighboring Fe III metal ion. Preliminary assignment of Fe and Co positions/oxidation states in 1–3 drawn from X-ray structural investigation was corroborated by a number of complementary techniques. Single-crystal resonant synchrotron diffraction and neutron diffraction experiments unambiguously confirmed the location of Fe and Co sites in the molecules of dinuclear (1) and trinuclear (2) complexes, respectively. Direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry revealed the presence of Fe III - and Co II -based fragments in the gas phase upon evaporation of precursors 1 and 2 as well as of Fe III , Fe II , and Co II species for complex 3. Theoretical investigation of two possible “valent isomers”, [Fe II I(acac) 3 ][Co II (hfac) 2 ] (1) and [Co III (acac) 3 ][Fe II (hfac) 2 ] (1'), provided an additional support for the metal site/oxidation state assignment giving a preference of 6.48 kcal/mol for the experimentally observed molecule 1. Magnetic susceptibility measurements data are in agreement with the presence of high-spin FeIII and CoII magnetic centers with weak anti-ferromagnetic coupling between those in molecules of 1 and 2. Highly volatile heterometallic complexes 1–3 were found to act as effective single-source precursors for the low-temperature preparation of iron–cobalt spinel oxides Fe x Co 3–x O 4 known as important materials for diverse energy-related applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

X-Ray Synchrotron Emission From 10-100 TeV Cosmic-Ray Electrons In The Supernova Remnant SN 1006

We present the results of a joint spectral analysis of RXTE PCA, ASCA SIS, and ROSAT PSPC data of the supernova remnant SN 1006. This work represents the first attempt to model both the thermal and nonthermal X-ray emission over the entire X-ray energy band from 0.12 to 17 key. The thermal flux is described by a nonequilibrium ionization model with an electron temperature kTe = 0.6 key, an ionization timescale n(sub 0)t = 9 x 10(exp 9)/cc s, and a relative elemental abundance of silicon that is 10 - 18 times larger than the solar abundance. The nonthermal X-ray spectrum is described by a broken power law model with low- and high-energy photon indices Gamma(sub 1) = 2.1 and Gamma(sub 2) = 3.0, respectively. Since the nonthermal X-ray spectrum steepens with increasing energy, the results of the present analysis corroborate previous claims that the nonthermal X-ray emission is produced by synchrotron radiation. We argue that the magnetic field strength is significantly larger than previous estimates of about 10 micro G and arbitrarily use a value of 40 micro G to estimate the parameters of the cosmic-ray electron, proton, and helium spectra of the remnant. The results for the ratio of the number densities of protons and electrons (R = 160 at 1 GeV), the total energy in cosmic rays (E(sub cr) = 1 x 10(exp 50) ergs), and the spectral index of the electrons at 1 GeV (Gamma(sub e) = 2.14 +/- 0.12) are consistent with the hypothesis that Galactic cosmic rays are accelerated predominantly in the shocks of supernova remnants. Yet, the remnant may or may not accelerate nuclei to energies as high as the energy of the "knee," depending on the reason why the maximum energy of the electrons is only 10 TeV.

Allen, G. E.↗

Time-series metagenomics reveals changing protistan ecology of a temperate dimictic lake

Abstract Background Protists, single-celled eukaryotic organisms, are critical to food web ecology, contributing to primary productivity and connecting small bacteria and archaea to higher trophic levels. Lake Mendota is a large, eutrophic natural lake that is a Long-Term Ecological Research site and among the world’s best-studied freshwater systems. Metagenomic samples have been collected and shotgun sequenced from Lake Mendota for the last 20 years. Here, we analyze this comprehensive time series to infer changes to the structure and function of the protistan community and to hypothesize about their interactions with bacteria. Results Based on small subunit rRNA genes extracted from the metagenomes and metagenome-assembled genomes of microeukaryotes, we identify shifts in the eukaryotic phytoplankton community over time, which we predict to be a consequence of reduced zooplankton grazing pressures after the invasion of a invasive predator (the spiny water flea) to the lake. The metagenomic data also reveal the presence of the spiny water flea and the zebra mussel, a second invasive species to Lake Mendota, prior to their visual identification during routine monitoring. Furthermore, we use species co-occurrence and co-abundance analysis to connect the protistan community with bacterial taxa. Correlation analysis suggests that protists and bacteria may interact or respond similarly to environmental conditions. Cryptophytes declined in the second decade of the timeseries, while many alveolate groups (e.g., ciliates and dinoflagellates) and diatoms increased in abundance, changes that have implications for food web efficiency in Lake Mendota. Conclusions We demonstrate that metagenomic sequence-based community analysis can complement existing efforts to monitor protists in Lake Mendota based on microscopy-based count surveys. We observed patterns of seasonal abundance in microeukaryotes in Lake Mendota that corroborated expectations from other systems, including high abundance of cryptophytes in winter and diatoms in fall and spring, but with much higher resolution than previous surveys. Our study identified long-term changes in the abundance of eukaryotic microbes and provided context for the known establishment of an invasive species that catalyzes a trophic cascade involving protists. Our findings are important for decoding potential long-term consequences of human interventions, including invasive species introduction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Lidar Observations of Tropospheric Aerosols Over Northeastern South Africa During the ARREX and SAFARI-2000 Dry Season Experiments

During the ARREX-1999 and SAFARI-2000 Dry Season experiments a micropulse lidar (523 nm) instrument was operated at the Skukuza Airport in northeastern South Africa. The Mar was collocated with a diverse array of passive radiometric equipment. For SAFARI-2000 the processed Mar data yields a daytime time-series of layer mean/derived aerosol optical properties, including extinction-to-backscatter ratios and vertical extinction cross-section profile. Combined with 523 run aerosol optical depth and spectral Angstrom exponent calculations from available CIMEL sun-photometer data and normalized broadband flux measurements the temporal evolution of the near surface aerosol layer optical properties is analyzed for climatological trends. For the densest smoke/haze events the extinction-to-backscatter ratio is found to be between 60-80/sr, and corresponding Angstrom exponent calculations near and above 1.75. The optical characteristics of an evolving smoke event from SAFARI-2000 are extensively detailed. The advecting smoke was embedded within two distinct stratified thermodynamic layers, causing the particulate mass to advect over the instrument array in an incoherent manner on the afternoon of its occurrence. Surface broadband flux forcing due to the smoke is calculated, as is the evolution in the vertical aerosol extinction profile as measured by the Han Finally, observations of persistent elevated aerosol during ARREX-1999 are presented and discussed. The lack of corroborating observations the following year makes these observation; both unique and noteworthy in the scope of regional aerosol transport over southern Africa.

Campbell, James R.↗

Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity

It has been recently shown [N. V. Sarlis, Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011) and N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance κ{sub 1} of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity. Here, we study the fluctuations of this order parameter using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for a magnitude threshold M{sub thres} = 5.0 and focus on its behavior before major earthquakes. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [N. V. Sarlis et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 13734 (2013)] that similar minima of the seismicity order parameter fluctuations had preceded all major shallow earthquakes in Japan. Moreover, on the basis of these minima a statistically significant binary prediction method for earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4 with hit rate 100% and false alarm rate 6.67% is suggested.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Comparison of Anomalies and Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES and Computed from Geophysical Parameters Derived from Analysis of AIRS/AMSU Data

Anomalies and trends of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) serve as important indicators of climate change. Several satellite based instruments currently provide information related to OLR. CERES, on board the EOS Aqua and Terra satellites, contains broad band radiometers that measure total flux and short-wave flux, from which OLR is determined. AIRS is a high spectral resolution IR sounder on EOS Aqua that measures IR radiances covering most of the spectral interval 650 cm-1 to 2670 cm-1. These observations enable the determination of detailed information about atmospheric temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles, as well as surface skin temperatures and cloud parameters. The AIRS OLR product is the total flux over the spectral interval 2 cm-1 to2750 cm-1 computed for the surface and atmospheric state determined from AIRS observations. We compared spatial anomalies and trends of OLR, over the seven year period September 2002 through August 2009, as observed by CERES and computed using Version 5 AIRS products. These two sets of OLR anomalies and trends, obtained in very different ways, agree with each other almost perfectly in essentially every detail. This important finding shows that a very stable high spectral infra-red sounder such as AIRS corroborates the anomalies and trends of OLR obtained from CERES. More significantly, anomalies and trends of the individual geophysical parameters derived from AIRS explain the detailed causes of the anomalies and trends of CERES OLR. Both sets of results show that global mean OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.12 W/m2/yr over the seven year time period under study. Both also confirm that the primary cause of this is due to changes in the tropics, in which OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.27 W/m2/yr. AIRS products show that the decrease of tropical OLR is a result of increasing tropical atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover over the time period studied, which in turn is responding to a very strong E1 Nino/ La Nina cycle. Equatorial ocean temperatures between 160E and 120W cooled considerably during this time period, with corresponding local decreases in mid-tropospheric humidity and cloud cover, resulting in increases in local OLR. This was more than compensated by substantial increases in water vapor and cloud cover elsewhere in the tropics, resulting in a net decrease in tropical OLR.

Susskind, Joel↗