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A perspective of the process of obtaining performance robustness of space exploration life support systems is presented. Some useful definitions are made, some relevant issues are addressed, and a procedure for establishing performance robustness, so far as it now known, is explained. An example is given to illustrate the procedure.
Accurate shortwave radiation data is critical to evapotranspiration (ET) models used for developing irrigation schedules to optimize crop production while saving water, minimizing fertilizer, herbicide, and pesticide applications, reducing soil erosion, and protecting surface and ground water quality. Low cost silicon cell pyranometers have proven to be sufficiently accurate and robust for widespread use in agricultural applications under unobstructed daylight conditions. More expensive thermopile pyranometers are required for use as calibration standards and measurements under light with unique spectral properties (electric lights, under vegetation, in greenhouses and growth chambers). Routine cleaning, leveling, and annual calibration checks will help to ensure the integrity of long-term data.
Land surface vegetation phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring ecosystem variation in response to changes in climatic factors. The primary objective of the current article is to examine the utility of the daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy direct broadcast (DB) product for monitoring the evolution of vegetation phenological trends over selected crop, orchard, and forest regions. Although numerous model-fitted satellite data have been widely used to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of land surface phenological patterns to understand phenological process and phenomena, current efforts to investigate the details of phenological trends, especially for natural phenological variations that occur on short time scales, are less well served by remote sensing challenges and lack of anisotropy correction in satellite data sources. The daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy product is employed to retrieve daily vegetation indices (VI) of a 1 year period for an almond orchard in California and for a winter wheat field in northeast China, as well as a 2 year period for a deciduous forest region in New Hampshire, USA. Compared with the ground records from these regions, the VI trajectories derived from the cloud-free and atmospherically corrected MODIS Nadir BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) capture not only the detailed footprint and principal attributes of the phenological events (such as flowering and blooming) but also the substantial inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates the utility of the daily 500 m MODIS reflectance anisotropy DB product to provide daily VI for monitoring and detecting changes of the natural vegetation phenology as exemplified by study regions comprising winter wheat, almond trees, and deciduous forest.
Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.
Land surface models are crucial tools for many earth science applications including numerical weather prediction, water resource and crop monitoring, and climatological analysis. Given a set of atmospheric forcings, seasonal data, and static parameters, models like Noah-LSM solve for land surface quantities including skin temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil moisture. While these calculations are theoretically robust, they are often computationally expensive. Since artificial neural networks (ANNs) are universal function approximators, they can learn to emulate the output of a deterministic numerical model given a time series of input forcings, with the learned ANN having substantially shorter execution time. The ANN could efficiently parameterize other models, generate ensembles, and provide first-guess inputs for retrievals. As such, with the goal of developing a model that efficiently mimics the output of Noah-LSM given NLDAS2 forcings on a region covering much of the central US, we examine and compare several neural network architectures for the multi-horizon multivariate time series forecasting problem. Recent literature includes a diverse set of approaches including autoregressive architectures like LSTM and GRU, parametric and non-parametric statistical predictors (ForecastNet and MQRNN), self-attention (LSTM-attention-LSTM), and temporal convovlution (DeepTCN). We implement several of these models for the Noah-LSM prediction task, highlighting the features and challenges for each and providing practical insight on the training process.
A model for the brightness temperature of a canopy which is based on the physical characteristics of the vegetation is being developed. This model uses the Peake model to relate the scattering coefficient of the vegetation to its radiometric brightness temperature and a discrete scattering model to computer the scattering coefficient. A distorted Born approximation is used to provide a tractable solution to the scattering problem. To verify the theory a comparison has been made with experiments. Radiometric measurements of brightness temperature were made at L- and C-bands over a crop of mature soybeans, along with ground truth measurements. All model input parameters were measured; there were no free parameters to adjust to obtain agreement with the measurements. Results showed that agreement between theory and measurements was reasonable for horizontal polarization at both L- and C-bands with dry underlying soil.
The Veggie vegetable production system has been flying on the International Space Station since 2014, with a second Veggie chamber added in 2017. Veggie is a simple, low power, flexible platform for space plant cultivation. Since 2014, over a dozen crop cycles have been conducted in Veggie. Primarily leafy green crops have been grown, and many of these have been used to supplement the crew diet. Flowers were also grown, and the seeds returned produced viable progeny. In addition to the crop plants, Veggie has been used as a platform for model plants grown in Petri dishes or custom magenta jar chambers. Other used have included algal culture and an education seed germination experiment. Science in Veggie has focused on the plant microbiome, the chemistry and food safety of space-grown produce, the impacts of light quality on crop growth, and the behavioral health benefits of cultivating and eating space crops. Veggie is allowing testing and maturation of NASA’s early-stage space crop production research in a relevant environment, and the lessons that we are learning from this research are helping to shape future exploration scenarios. This research was funded by NASA Space Biology and NASA’s Human Research Program.
The Veggie vegetable production system has been flying on the International Space Station since 2014, with a second Veggie chamber added in 2017. Veggie is a simple, low power, flexible platform for space plant cultivation. Since 2014, over a dozen crop cycles have been conducted in Veggie. Primarily leafy green crops have been grown, and many of these have been used to supplement the crew diet. Flowers were also grown, and the seeds returned produced viable progeny. In addition to the crop plants, Veggie has been used as a platform for model plants grown in Petri dishes or custom magenta jar chambers. Other used have included algal culture and an education seed germination experiment. Science in Veggie has focused on the plant microbiome, the chemistry and food safety of space-grown produce, the impacts of light quality on crop growth, and the behavioral health benefits of cultivating and eating space crops. Veggie is allowing testing and maturation of NASA’s early-stage space crop production research in a relevant environment, and the lessons that we are learning from this research are helping to shape future exploration scenarios. This research was funded by NASA Space Biology and NASA’s Human Research Program.
Abstract Suberin is a hydrophobic biopolymer of significance in the production of biomass-derived materials and in biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we describe suberin structure and biosynthesis, and its importance in biological (i.e., plant bark and roots), ecological (soil organic carbon) and economic (biomass conversion to bioproducts) contexts. Furthermore, we highlight the genomics and analytical approaches currently available and explore opportunities for future technologies to study suberin in quantitative and/or high-throughput platforms in bioenergy crops. A greater understanding of suberin structure and production in lignocellulosic biomass can be leveraged to improve representation in life cycle analysis and techno-economic analysis models and enable performance improvements in plant biosystems as well as informed crop system management to achieve economic and environmental co-benefits.
CRISPR/Cas9 technology has become an important tool to generate targeted, highly specific genome mutations. The technology has great potential for crop improvement, as crop genomes are tailored to optimize specific traits over generations of breeding. Many crops have highly complex and polyploid genomes, particularly those used for bioenergy or bioproducts. The majority of tools currently available for designing and evaluating gRNAs for CRISPR experiments were developed based on mammalian genomes that do not share the characteristics or design criteria for crop genomes. We have developed an open source tool for genome-wide design and evaluation of gRNA sequences for CRISPR experiments, CROPSR. The genome-wide approach provides a significant decrease in the time required to design a CRISPR experiment, including validation through PCR, at the expense of an overhead compute time required once per genome, at the first run. To better cater to the needs of crop geneticists, restrictions imposed by other packages on design and evaluation of gRNA sequences were lifted. A new machine learning model was developed to provide scores while avoiding situations in which the currently available tools sometimes failed to provide guides for repetitive, A/T-rich genomic regions. We show that our gRNA scoring model provides a significant increase in prediction accuracy over existing tools, even in non-crop genomes. CROPSR provides the scientific community with new methods and a new workflow for performing CRISPR/Cas9 knockout experiments. CROPSR reduces the challenges of working in crops, and helps speed gRNA sequence design, evaluation and validation. We hope that the new software will accelerate discovery and reduce the number of failed experiments.
View factor models are used in due diligence software to calculate rear irradiance for bifacial modules. An intermediate step in this calculation is the irradiance at the ground level, which can be leveraged for evaluating the Photo Active Radiation available for crops in Agrivoltaic setups. This paper presents the metrics and modifications to the model for ground irradiance study with the view factor approach, compares it to the raytracing method, and validates it with field measurements of ground irradiance. It is found that for the clearances, row-to-row setups, and tilts studied, the view factor method matches with raytracing results within 2% MBD. The comparison is performed for the nine most common agriPV configurations using high-performance computing and the NSRDB database for the whole US, with results and data made available open-source on the InSPIRE AgriPV website.
Data associated with Cheng et al. 2019 in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.
The coincidence of rising ozone concentrations ([O 3 ]), increasing global temperatures, and drought episodes is expected to become more intense and frequent in the future. A better understanding of the responses of crop yield to elevated [O 3 ] under different levels of drought and high temperature stress is, therefore, critical for projecting future food production potential. Using a 15-year open-air field experiment in central Illinois, we assessed the impacts of elevated [O 3 ] coupled with variation in growing season temperature and water availability on soybean seed yield. Thirteen soybean cultivars were exposed to a wide range of season-long elevated [O 3 ] in the field using free-air O 3 concentration enrichment. Elevated [O3] treatments reduced soybean seed yield from as little as 5.3% in 2005 to 35.2% in 2010. Although cultivars differed in yield response to elevated [O 3 ] (R), ranging from 17.5% to –76.4%, there was a significant negative correlation between R and O 3 dosage. Soybean cultivars showed greater seed yield losses to elevated [O 3 ] when grown at drier or hotter conditions compared to wetter or cooler years, because the hotter and drier conditions were associated with greater O 3 treatment. However, year-to-year variation in weather conditions did not influence the sensitivity of soybean seed yield to a given increase in [O 3 ]. Collectively, this study quantitatively demonstrates that, although drought conditions or warmer temperatures led to greater O 3 treatment concentrations and O 3 -induced seed yield reduction, drought and temperature stress did not alter soybean's sensitivity to O 3 . Our results have important implications for modeling the effects of rising O 3 pollution on crops and suggest that altering irrigation practices to mitigate O 3 stress may not be effective in reducing crop sensitivity to O 3 .
Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions is more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.
Abstract Plant breeding relies on information gathered from field trials to select promising new crop varieties for release to farmers and to develop genomic prediction models that can enhance the efficiency of genetic improvement in future breeding cycles. However, generating the genetic marker data required to apply genomic prediction at the early stages of a breeding program remains costly for many public‐sector breeding programs as well as for many plant breeders operating in developing countries. As the pace of climate change intensifies, the time lag of developing and deploying new crop varieties requires plant breeders to make selection decisions without knowing the future environments those crop varieties will encounter in farmers’ fields. Therefore, both lower cost and higher accuracy methods for prediction of crop performance are essential for creating and maintaining resilient agricultural systems in the latter half of the 21 st century. To address this challenge, we conducted linked yield trials of 752 public maize ( Zea mays ) genotypes in two distinct environments. We developed and trained a phenotypic prediction model to predict yield from manually scored plant traits. The phenotypic prediction approach we employed outperformed genomic prediction in predicting yields in a second environment, with 8.7%–63% higher R 2 and 4%–13% less root mean square error than the genomic prediction. The phenotypic prediction has the potential to be applied to a wider range of breeding programs, including those that lack the resources to genotype large populations, such as programs in the developing world, breeding programs for specialty crops, and public sector programs.
The sources of scattering in vegetation and other surfaces and objects were studied. A special radar, SOURCESCAT, that could resolve a cylindrical volume 18 cm in diameter and 11 cm long was built. This system provided the first really fine-resolution measurements of radar backscatter from vegetation. The measurements showed that many of the assumptions used previously in modeling vegetation backscatter were false. Vegetation studied included various field crops, prairie grass, and various trees. Major differences were found in the roles of leaves, branches, stems, and trunks for different species. An artificial tree was studied in the laboratory using the systems. The most significant findings were that the average radar volume scattering coefficient is independent of azimuth, and that slanting of the polarization vector can give useful information not available with ordinary vertical and horizontal polarization. A model for scattering from a single leaf was developed. This model, for the first time, took into account the presence of veins in leaves. The pattern of scatter from a leaf was shown quite different from that for which the veins are ignored. A list of publications and presentations resulting from this project are attached.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.
Solar-stimulated chlorophyll fluorescence measured with the Fraunhofer line depth method has correlated well with vegetation stress in previous studies. However, the instruments used in those studies were limited to a single solar absorption line (e.g. 656.3 nm), obviating the red/far-red ratio (R/FR) method. Optics and detector technology have reached the level whereby multiple, very narrow Fraunhofer lines are resolvable. Thirteen such lines span the visible spectrum in the red to far-red region where chlorophyll fluorescence occurs. Fluorescence intensities at the 13 Fraunhofer line wavelengths were used to model emission spectra. The source data were collected for summer and fall bean crops (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) subjected to various levels of nitrogen fertilization. The intensities were adjusted to account for Fraunhofer line depth and atmospheric transmittance. Multiple R/FR fluorescence ratios, calculated from the modeled fluorescence spectra, correlated strongly with leaf chlorophyll concentration and well with applied nitrogen. The ratio yielding the best correlation with chlorophyll utilized red fluorescence at the 694.5 nm Fraunhofer line and farred fluorescence at the 755.6 nm Fraunhofer line. Twenty R/FR ratios, each evaluated for the maximum differential between low and high (optimal) nitrogen treatments, ranked higher in some cases and lower in others, possibly related to the time of year the crops were grown and the stage of growth of the crops. Ratios with 728.9 nm and 738.9 nm in the denominator consistently ranked in the lowest and next lowest quartile, respectively. Ratios of the 656.3 nm Fraunhofer line and the 755.6 nm line consistently ranked highest for the summer crop. Ratios with 755.6 nm in the denominator ranked in the upper quartile for 10 out of 12 measurement dates. Differences in ratio ranking indicate that physiological conditions may be estimated using selected ratios of Fraunhofer lines within the context of R/FR analysis. A passive instrument designed to monitor R/FR chlorophyll fluorescence (i.e. vegetation stress) from orbit could be built today.