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Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Radiation-Induced Noise Resilience of Neuromorphic Architectures

Neuromorphic event-based networks use asynchronous time-dependent information to extract features from input data that can allow for edge-based distributed applications such as object recognition. The noise resilience properties of such networks, especially in the context of space applications, are yet to be explored. In this paper, we use the hierarchy of time surfaces (HOTS) algorithm, which is one of the neuromorphic algorithms, to understand the least and most resilient modules in a neuromorphic network. The HOTS algorithm relies on the computing of time surfaces that maps the temporal delays between neighboring pixels into normalized features that involve many computations that are also found in other neuromorphic networks such as exponential decays, distance computations, etcetera. We implemented HOTS on a Digilent PYNQ board with a Xilinx Zynq 7020 system on a chip, and we subjected the boards running the HOTS network inference to neutron radiation at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. Furthermore, we used simulation models from our previous similar experiments on the event-based sensor to create a neutron induced noise model to quantify the effect of this noise on the overall performance of the network. This experiment provides the preliminary measurements of the reliability of the HOTS algorithm and proposes methods to create a more reliable HOTS architecture in future spacecraft missions.

Engineering↗

Description of real-time Ada software implementation of a power system monitor for the Space Station Freedom PMAD DC testbed

The Ada language software development to perform the electrical system monitoring functions for the NASA Lewis Research Center's Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) DC testbed is described. The results of the effort to implement this monitor are presented. The PMAD DC testbed is a reduced-scale prototype of the electrical power system to be used in the Space Station Freedom. The power is controlled by smart switches known as power control components (or switchgear). The power control components are currently coordinated by five Compaq 382/20e computers connected through an 802.4 local area network. One of these computers is designated as the control node with the other four acting as subsidiary controllers. The subsidiary controllers are connected to the power control components with a Mil-Std-1553 network. An operator interface is supplied by adding a sixth computer. The power system monitor algorithm is comprised of several functions including: periodic data acquisition, data smoothing, system performance analysis, and status reporting. Data is collected from the switchgear sensors every 100 milliseconds, then passed through a 2 Hz digital filter. System performance analysis includes power interruption and overcurrent detection. The reporting mechanism notifies an operator of any abnormalities in the system. Once per second, the system monitor provides data to the control node for further processing, such as state estimation. The system monitor required a hardware time interrupt to activate the data acquisition function. The execution time of the code was optimized using an assembly language routine. The routine allows direct vectoring of the processor to Ada language procedures that perform periodic control activities. A summary of the advantages and side effects of this technique are discussed.

Ludwig, Kimberly↗

Characterizing the Relationships Among Lightning and Storm Parameters: Lightning as a Proxy Variable

We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.

Goodman, S. J.↗

Applying Biomimetic Algorithms for Extra-Terrestrial Habitat Generation

The objective is to simulate and optimize distributed cooperation among a network of robots tasked with cooperative excavation on an extra-terrestrial surface. Additionally to examine the concept of directed Emergence among a group of limited artificially intelligent agents. Emergence is the concept of achieving complex results from very simple rules or interactions. For example, in a termite mound each individual termite does not carry a blueprint of how to make their home in a global sense, but their interactions based strictly on local desires create a complex superstructure. Leveraging this Emergence concept applied to a simulation of cooperative agents (robots) will allow an examination of the success of non-directed group strategy achieving specific results. Specifically the simulation will be a testbed to evaluate population based robotic exploration and cooperative strategies while leveraging the evolutionary teamwork approach in the face of uncertainty about the environment and partial loss of sensors. Checking against a cost function and 'social' constraints will optimize cooperation when excavating a simulated tunnel. Agents will act locally with non-local results. The rules by which the simulated robots interact will be optimized to the simplest possible for the desired result, leveraging Emergence. Sensor malfunction and line of sight issues will be incorporated into the simulation. This approach falls under Swarm Robotics, a subset of robot control concerned with finding ways to control large groups of robots. Swarm Robotics often contains biologically inspired approaches, research comes from social insect observation but also data from among groups of herding, schooling, and flocking animals. Biomimetic algorithms applied to manned space exploration is the method under consideration for further study.

Birge, Brian↗

Middleware Case Study: MeDICi

In many application domains in science and engineering, data produced by sensors, instruments and networks is naturally processed by software applications structured as a pipeline . Pipelines comprise a sequence of software components that progressively process discrete units of data to produce a desired outcome. For example, in a Web crawler that is extracting semantics from text on Web sites, the first stage in the pipeline might be to remove all HTML tags to leave only the raw text of the document. The second step may parse the raw text to break it down into its constituent grammatical parts, such as nouns, verbs and so on. Subsequent steps may look for names of people or places, interesting events or times so documents can be sequenced on a time line. Each of these steps can be written as a specialized program that works in isolation with other steps in the pipeline. In many applications, simple linear software pipelines are sufficient. However, more complex applications require topologies that contain forks and joins, creating pipelines comprising branches where parallel execution is desirable. It is also increasingly common for pipelines to process very large files or high volume data streams which impose end-to-end performance constraints. Additionally, processes in a pipeline may have specific execution requirements and hence need to be distributed as services across a heterogeneous computing and data management infrastructure. From a software engineering perspective, these more complex pipelines become problematic to implement. While simple linear pipelines can be built using minimal infrastructure such as scripting languages, complex topologies and large, high volume data processing requires suitable abstractions, run-time infrastructures and development tools to construct pipelines with the desired qualities-of-service and flexibility to evolve to handle new requirements. The above summarizes the reasons we created the MeDICi Integration Framework (MIF) that is designed for creating high-performance, scalable and modifiable software pipelines. MIF exploits a low friction, robust, open source middleware platform and extends it with component and service-based programmatic interfaces that make implementing complex pipelines simple. The MIF run-time automatically handles queues between pipeline elements in order to handle request bursts, and automatically executes multiple instances of pipeline elements to increase pipeline throughput. Distributed pipeline elements are supported using a range of configurable communications protocols, and the MIF interfaces provide efficient mechanisms for moving data directly between two distributed pipeline elements.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements: Preprint

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Secure Software Defined Radio Project: Secure Wireless Systems for the Energy Sector (Briefing 6)

Strong industry interest in the SEL-FLT/FLR products has led to a large number of customers conducting various lab and field trial evaluations of the system. These trials are on-going but have allowed SEL to collect enough information about operation and deployment and security capabilities of the system to conclude the field demo phase of the project. The field-testing topical report has been completed and submitted. SEL has also prepared a SEL-FLT/FLR best practices guide based on learnings from the field demo phase of the project. This best practice guide has also been submitted. The final deliverable from this phase of the project is an economic and operational benefits white paper, which has also been written and submitted. The overall objective of the project, extending the cyber security capabilities of utility wired networks into last mile wireless networks has been successfully achieved. SEL chose to target a sensor network for implementation of this capability because it was one area of last mile networking where there was substantial need and opportunity. Based on customer interest in the product these efforts have been a success. Interest in, and support for many of the security features of the product has been expressed by customers trialing the product system. Key security features customers value are strong data encryption, sensor white listing, and use of secure account based log on for access to the system. These and other features of the product have gained strong acceptance from customers interested in purchasing these products. All project deliverables and tasks are now complete, and the project can be closed out.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

USA Space Debris Environment, Operations, and Research Updates

Space Missions in 2017 Earth Satellite Population Collision Avoidance Maneuvers Post mission Disposal of U.S.A. Spacecraft Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and the Space Debris Sensor (SDS) A total of 86 space launches placed more than 400 spacecraft into Earth orbits during 2017, following the trend of increase over the past decade NASA has established conjunction assessment processes for its human spaceflight and uncrewed spacecraft to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network - NASA also assists other U.S. government spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent maneuvers The ISS has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999 - None in 2016-2017, but an ISS visiting vehicle had one collision avoidance maneuver in 2017 During 2017 NASA executed or assisted in the execution of 21 collision avoidance maneuvers by uncrewed spacecraft - Four maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from Fengyun-1C - Two maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from the collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 - One maneuver was conducted to avoid the ISS NASA has established conjunction assessment processes for its human spaceflight and uncrewed spacecraft to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network - NASA also assists other U.S. government spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent maneuvers The ISS has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999 - None in 2016-2017, but an ISS visiting vehicle had one collision avoidance maneuver in 2017 During 2017 NASA executed or assisted in the execution of 21 collision avoidance maneuvers by uncrewed spacecraft - Four maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from Fengyun-1C - Two maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from the collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 The 2014-15 NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) study on the micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) assessment for the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) provided the following findings - Millimeter-sized orbital debris pose the highest penetration risk to most operational spacecraft in LEO - The most effective means to collect direct measurement data on millimetersized debris above 600 km altitude is to conduct in situ measurements - There is currently no in situ data on such small debris above 600 km altitude Since the orbital debris population follows a power-law size distribution, there are many more millimeter-sized debris than the large tracked objects - Current conjunction assessments and collision avoidance maneuvers against the tracked objects (which are typically 10 cm and larger) only address a small fraction (<1%) of the mission-ending risk from orbital debris To address the millimeter-sized debris data gap above 600 km, NASA has recently developed an innovative in situ measurement instrument - the Space Debris Sensor (SDS) - One maneuver was conducted to avoid the ISS

Liou, J.-C.↗

Development of Thermoacoustic Sensors for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors

This Final Report refers to the project “Development of Thermoacoustic Sensors for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor Systems”, which was led by Westinghouse Electric Company (Westinghouse) and carried out in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and University of Pittsburgh. Thermo-acoustic Power Sensors (TAPS) are self-powered, wireless sensors envisioned for measuring key parameters, such as local temperature and neutron flux, in a nuclear reactor core. This project was intended to specifically investigate their applicability to Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFR). TAPS are non-invasive (wireless) and passive (self-powered) devices. The passivity derives from their ability to use conditions that “naturally” exist in a nuclear reactor, such as gamma and neutron flux, as power sources. They generate oscillating pressure waves (i.e., sound waves) which, with a frequency and amplitude dependent upon these conditions, can travel through the core and associated structures, and reach the outside of the reactor vessel where a properly designed network of receivers can detect and interpret them. These receivers require a very small amount of power which, during loss of power events, can be provided for example by harvesting gamma radiation energy, thus resulting in a monitoring system that can function both during normal operation and during loss of power events. The project aimed at TAPS development through a series of tasks which are listed and briefly discussed as follows. TASK 1 – Sensor hardware design Subtask 1a: Assessment of sensor applications to SFRs Subtask 1b: Development of sensor functional requirements Subtask 1c: Definition of sensor hardware design specifications Task description: TAPS design was informed by considerations on their application (Subtask 1a), both the ultimate one in an SFR and the actual one in the ANL testing facilities that was intended to be used in support of the project. Considerations were made to identify optimum sensor design features that optimize the sensor size, materials, and output signal, for installation inside an SFR core. These considerations led to the development of Functional Requirements (Subtask 1b) and Design Requirements (Subtask 1c). TASK 2 – Sensor Hardware Manufacture Subtask 2a: Sensor hardware construction drawing development Subtask 2b: Sensor manufacture and assembly Task description: TAPS technical drawings were developed (Subtask 2a) using the Design Requirements established under Task 1. Subsequently, in spite of some problems which ultimately caused the program to be delayed, TAPS manufacturing was completed based on drawings (Subtask 2b). TASK 3 – Development of TAPS Signal Measurement System and TAPS Testing in Water Subtask 3a: Design, assembly and testing of signal measurement system, and TAPS testing in water Subtask 3b: Signal prediction-correction methodology development Task description: An assessment was performed on the techniques that can potentially be used to detect the signals emitted by the TAPS, e.g. a fiber-optic based acoustic signal measurement system, a laser vibrometer system, or an accelerometer-based system. The most suited technology, i.e. the accelerometer-based system, was developed further, and tested in water (Subtask 3a). Moreover, efforts were made to develop the methodology required to determine the actual system temperature and neutron flux distribution using differences between the measured and predicted TAPS responses (Subtask 3b). TASK 4 – Sensor System Testing in Sodium Subtask 4a: Test plan development Subtask 4b: Design, assembly and testing in small-scale sodium facility Subtask 4c: Design, assembly and testing in large-scale sodium and structures facility Task description: Upon proper test plan development (Subtask 4a), the fabricated TAPS was planned to be tested in sodium, by using two sodium facilities at ANL having different size and different purpose. The Under Sodium Viewing (USV) small-scale facility was intended to be used to investigate the effect of sodium on the sensor and its performance (Subtask 4b). The Mechanism Engineering Test Loop (METL) large-scale facility was instead intended to be used to assess the additional effect of prototypical SFR structures, such as fuel assembly mockup or parts of the core restrain structure, on sensor performance (Subtask 4c). As discussed in Section 3.2.2.7, unexpected issues during the TAPS manufacturing process resulted in some activities being delayed, with the TAPS and USV facility developed to the point to be ready for testing in sodium, however without the possibility to actually perform such testing (including the testing in METL) due to the end of the program’s performance period. Overall, through the development and testing (in water only) of two TAPS devices (a First-Generation TAPS followed by an optimized Second-Generation TAPS), the project confirmed the capability of this technology to generate acoustic signals proportional to temperature, which can be detected through a network of accelerometers identified as the best-suited type of receivers for acoustic signal detection. Moreover, the project also developed a computational model to predict the characteristics of the acoustic signals being generated, which combines thermal analysis of the TAPS with Finite Element Modeling (FEM)-aided acoustic characterization of the system. This model was benchmarked against experimental data collected during the project and, although general agreement was obtained, some limitations of the modeling methods were identified, which require additional development. Additional testing is needed in order to assess the effect, on TAPS operation and performance, of environmental changes resulting from the transition from water to liquid sodium. Such testing, which is suggested to be performed in the future, should look specifically at 1) both the effect resulting from the different thermoacoustic behavior of sodium (relative to water) and the effects of higher temperature on TAPS performance, and 2) the performance of the sensor-receiver system when multiple TAPS are used simultaneously and prototypical reactor structures are positioned in the testing environment. The latter testing is needed to assess the effects that potential signal attenuation/ distortion phenomena, as well as potential interference between signals emitted simultaneously, have on the performance of the technology for ultimate application in a nuclear reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA Tech Briefs, October 2010

Topics covered include: Hybrid Architecture Active Wavefront Sensing and Control; Carbon-Nanotube-Based Chemical Gas Sensor; Aerogel-Positronium Technology for the Detection of Small Quantities of Organic and/or Toxic Materials; Graphene-Based Reversible Nano-Switch/Sensor Schottky Diode; Inductive Non-Contact Position Sensor; High-Temperature Surface-Acoustic-Wave Transducer; Grid-Sphere Electrodes for Contact with Ionospheric Plasma; Enabling IP Header Compression in COTS Routers via Frame Relay on a Simplex Link; Ka-Band SiGe Receiver Front-End MMIC for Transponder Applications; Robust Optimization Design Algorithm for High-Frequency TWTs; Optimal and Local Connectivity Between Neuron and Synapse Array in the Quantum Dot/Silicon Brain; Method and Circuit for In-Situ Health Monitoring of Solar Cells in Space; BGen: A UML Behavior Network Generator Tool; Platform for Post-Processing Waveform-Based NDE; Electrochemical Hydrogen Peroxide Generator; Fabrication of Single, Vertically Aligned Carbon Nanotubes in 3D Nanoscale Architectures; Process to Create High-Fidelity Lunar Dust Simulants; Lithium-Ion Electrolytes Containing Phosphorous-Based, Flame-Retardant Additives; InGaP Heterojunction Barrier Solar Cells; Straight-Pore Microfilter with Efficient Regeneration; Determining Shear Stress Distribution in a Laminate; Self-Adjusting Liquid Injectors for Combustors; Handling Qualities Prediction of an F-16XL-Based Reduced Sonic Boom Aircraft; Tele-Robotic ATHLETE Controller for Kinematics - TRACK; Three-Wheel Brush-Wheel Sampler; Heterodyne Interferometer Angle Metrology; Aligning Astronomical Telescopes via Identification of Stars; Generation of Optical Combs in a WGM Resonator from a Bichromatic Pump; Large-Format AlGaN PIN Photodiode Arrays for UV Images; Fiber-Coupled Planar Light-Wave Circuit for Seed Laser Control in High Spectral Resolution Lidar Systems; On Calculating the Zero-Gravity Surface Figure of a Mirror; Optical Modification of Casimir Forces for Improved Function of Micro- and Nano-Scale Devices; Analysis, Simulation, and Verification of Knowledge-Based, Rule-Based, and Expert Systems; Core and Off-Core Processes in Systems Engineering; Digital Reconstruction Supporting Investigation of Mishaps; and Template Matching Approach to Signal Prediction.

Source record↗

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Data and Services for Research and Applications

Precipitation is a critical component of the Earth's hydrological cycle. Launched on 27 November 1997, TRMM is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to provide the first detailed and comprehensive data set of the four-dimensional distribution of rainfall and latent heating over vastly under-sampled tropical and subtropical oceans and continents (40 S - 40 N). Over the past 14 years, TRMM has been a major data source for meteorological, hydrological and other research and application activities around the world. The purpose of this short article is to inform that the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides TRMM archive and near-real-time precipitation data sets and services for research and applications. TRMM data consist of orbital data from TRMM instruments at the sensor s resolution, gridded data at a range of spatial and temporal resolutions, subsets, ground-based instrument data, and ancillary data. Data analysis, display, and delivery are facilitated by the following services: (1) Mirador (data search and access); (2) TOVAS (TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System); (3) OPeNDAP (Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol); (4) GrADS Data Server (GDS); and (5) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Map Service (WMS) for the GIS community. Precipitation data application services are available to support a wide variety of applications around the world. Future plans include enhanced and new services to address data related issues from the user community. Meanwhile, the GES DISC is preparing for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission which is scheduled for launch in 2014.

Liu, Zhong↗

A Data-Driven Framework for Automated Detection of Aircraft-Generated Signals in Seismic Array Data Using Machine Learning

Abstract Ground motions associated with aircraft overflights can cover a significant portion of the seismic data collected by shallowly emplaced seismometers, such as new nodal and Distributed Acoustic Sensing systems. This article describes the first published framework for automated detection of aircraft on single channel and multichannel seismic data. The seismic data are converted to spectrograms in a sliding time window and classified as aircraft or nonaircraft in each window using a deep convolutional neural network trained with analyst-labeled data. A majority voting scheme is used to convert the output from the sequence of sliding time windows onto a decision time sequence for each channel and to combine the binary classifications on the decision time sequences across multiple channels. Precision, recall, and F-score are used to quantify the detection performance of the algorithm on nodal data using fourfold time-series cross validation. By applying our framework to data from the Sage Brush Flats nodal array in Southern California, we provide a benchmark performance and demonstrate the advantage of using an array of sensors.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Real-Time Monitoring of Fracture Dynamics with a Contrast Agent-Assisted Electromagnetic Method

In collaboration with the Advanced Energy Consortium, our team has previously demonstrated that the placement of electrically active proppants (EAPs) in a hydraulic fracture surveyed by electromagnetic (EM) methods can enhance the imaging of the stimulated reservoir volumes during hydraulic fracturing. That work culminated in constructing a well-characterized EAP-filled fracture anomaly at the Devine field pilot site (DFPS). In subsequent laboratory studies, we observed that the electrical conductivity of our EAP correlates with changes in pressure, salinity, and flow. Thus, we postulated that the EAP could be used as an in-situ sensor for the remote monitoring of these changes in previously EAP-filled fractures. This paper presents our latest field data from the DFPS to demonstrate such correlations at an intermediate pilot scale. We conducted surface-based EM surveys during freshwater (200 ppm) and saltwater (2,500 ppm) slug injections while running surfaced-based EM surveys. Simultaneously, we measured the following: 1) bottomhole pressure and salinity in five monitoring wells; 2) injection rate using high-precision data loggers; 3) distributed acoustic sensors in four monitoring wells; and 4) tiltmeter data on the survey area. We demonstrated that injections into an EAP-filled fracture could be successfully coupled with real-time electric field measurements on the surface, leading to remote monitoring of dynamic changes within the EAP-filled fracture. Furthermore, by comparing the electrical field traces with the bottomhole pressure, flow rate, and salinity, we concluded that the observed electric field in our study is influenced by fracture dilation and flow rate. Salinity effect was observed when saltwater was injected. EM simulations solely based on assumptions of fracture conductivity changes during injection did not reproduce all of the measured electric field magnitudes. Preliminary estimates showed that including streaming potential in our geophysical model may be needed to reduce the simulation mismatch. The methods developed and demonstrated during this study will lead to a better understanding of the extent of fracture networks, formation stress states, fluid leakoff and invasion, characterizations of engineered fracture systems, and other applications where monitoring subsurface flow tracking is deemed important.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Strawman Philosophical Guide for Developing International Network of GPM GV Sites

The creation of an international network of ground validation (GV) sites that will support the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission's international science programme will require detailed planning of mechanisms for exchanging technical information, GV data products, and scientific results. An important component of the planning will be the philosophical guide under which the network will grow and emerge as a successful element of the GPM Mission. This philosophical guide should be able to serve the mission in developing scientific pathways for ground validation research which will ensure the highest possible quality measurement record of global precipitation products. The philosophical issues, in this regard, partly stem from the financial architecture under which the GV network will be developed, i.e., each participating country will provide its own financial support through committed institutions -- regardless of whether a national or international space agency is involved.At the 1st International GPM Ground Validation Workshop held in Abingdon, UK in November-2003, most of the basic tenants behind the development of the international GV network were identified and discussed. Therefore, with this progress in mind, this presentation is intended to put forth a strawman philosophical guide supporting the development of the international network of GPM GV sites, noting that the initial progress has been reported in the Proceedings of the 1st International GPM GV Workshop -- available online. The central philosophical issues themselves, all flow from the fact that each participating institution can only bring to the table, GV facilities and scientific personnel that are affordable to the sanctioning (funding) national agency (be that a research, research-support, or operational agency). This situation imposes on the network, heterogeneity in the measuring sensors, data collection periods, data collection procedures, data latencies, and data reporting capabilities. Therefore, in order for the network to be effective in supporting the central scientific goals of the GPM mission, there must be a basic agreed upon doctrine under which the network participants function vis-a-vis: (1) an overriding set of general scientific requirements, (2) a minimal set of policies governing the free flow of GV data between the scientific participants, (3) a few basic definitions concerning the prioritization of measurements and their respective value to the mission, (4) a few basic procedures concerning data formats, data reporting procedures, data access, and data archiving, and (5) a simple means to differentiate GV sites according to their level of effort and ability to perform near real-time data acquisition - data reporting tasks. Most important, in case they choose to operate as a near real-time data collection-data distribution site, they would be expected to operate under a fairly narrowly defined protocol needed to ensure smooth GV support operations. This presentation will suggest measures responsive to items (1) - (5) from which to proceed,. In addition, this presentation will seek to stimulate discussion and debate concerning how much heterogeneity is tolerable within the eventual GV site network, given that the any individual GV site can only be considered scientifically useful if it supports the achievement of the central GPM Mission goals. Only ground validation research that has a direct connection to the space mission should be considered justifiable given the overarching scientific goals of the mission. Therefore each site will have to seek some level of accommodation to what the GPM Mission requires in the way of retrieval error characterization, retrieval error detection and reporting, and generation of GV data products that support assessment and improvement of the mission's standard precipitation retrieval algorithms. These are all important scientific issues that will be best resolved in open scientific debate.

Smith, Eric A.↗

A Cabled Acoustic Telemetry System for Detecting and Tracking Juvenile Salmon: Part 2. Three-Dimensional Tracking and Passage Outcomes

In Part 1 of this paper [1], we presented the engineering design and instrumentation of the Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) cabled system, a nonproprietary technology developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, to meet the needs for monitoring the survival of juvenile salmonids through the 31 dams in the Federal Columbia River Power System. Here in Part 2, we describe how the JSATS cabled system was employed as a reference sensor network for detecting and tracking juvenile salmon. Time-of-arrival data for valid detections on four hydrophones were used to solve for the three-dimensional (3D) position of fish surgically implanted with JSATS acoustic transmitters. Validation tests demonstrated high accuracy of 3D tracking up to 100 m from the John Day Dam spillway. The along-dam component, used for assigning the route of fish passage, had the highest accuracy; the median errors ranged from 0.06 to 0.22 m, and root mean square errors ranged from 0.05 to 0.56 m at distances up to 100 m. For the case study at John Day Dam during 2008, the range for 3D tracking was more than 100 m upstream of the dam face where hydrophones were deployed, and detection and tracking probabilities of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters were higher than 98%. JSATS cabled systems have been successfully deployed on several major dams to acquire information for salmon protection and for development of more “fish-friendly” hydroelectric facilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗