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At least 631 records · Page 35

( Fermi Fermi)-LAT observations of the 2014 May-July outburst from 3C 454.3

A prominent outburst of the flat spectrum radio quasar 3C 454.3 was observed in 2014 June with the Fermi Large Area Telescope. This outburst was characterized by a three-stage light-curve pattern—plateau, flare, and post-flare—that occurred from 2014 May to July, in a similar pattern as observed during the exceptional outburst in 2010 November. The highest flux of the outburst reported in this paper occurred during 2014 June 7–29, showing a multiple-peak structure in the light-curves. The average flux in these 22 days was found to be F[E>100 MeV]=(7.2±0.2)×10{sup −6} ph cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}, with a spectral index, for a simple power law, of Γ=2.04±0.01. That made this outburst the first γ-ray high state of 3C 454.3 ever to be detected by Fermi with such a hard spectrum over several days. The highest flux was recorded on 2014 June 15, in a 3 hr bin, at MJD 56823.5625, at a level of F[E>100 MeV]=(17.6±1.9)×10{sup −6} ph cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}. The rise time of one of the short subflares was found to be T{sub r}=1200±700 s at MJD = 56827, when the flux increased from 4 to 12 × 10{sup −6} ph cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}. Several photons above 20 GeV were collected during this outburst, including one at 45 GeV on MJD 56827, constraining the γ-ray emission region to be located close to the outer boundary of the broad-line region, leading to fast flux variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SEARCHING FOR PLANET NINE WITH COADDED WISE AND NEOWISE-REACTIVATION IMAGES

A distant, as yet unseen ninth planet has been invoked to explain various observations of the outer solar system. While such a “Planet Nine,” if it exists, is most likely to be discovered via reflected light in the optical, it may emit much more strongly at 3−5 μm than simple blackbody predictions would suggest, depending on its atmospheric properties. As a result, Planet Nine may be detectable at 3.4 μm with the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, but single exposures are too shallow except at relatively small distances (d{sub 9}≲430 au). We develop a method to search for Planet Nine far beyond the W1 single-exposure sensitivity, to distances as large as 800 au, using inertial coadds of W1 exposures binned into ∼1 day intervals. We apply our methodology to a ∼2000 square degree testbed sky region which overlaps a southern segment of Planet Nine’s anticipated orbital path. We do not detect a plausible Planet Nine candidate, but are able to derive a detailed completeness curve, ruling out its presence within the parameter space searched at W1 < 16.66 (90% completeness). Our method uses all publicly available W1 imaging, spanning 2010 January to 2015 December, and will become more sensitive with future NEOWISE-Reactivation releases of additional W1 exposures. We anticipate that our method will be applicable to the entire high Galactic latitude sky, and we will extend our search to that full footprint in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spitzer Microlensing Parallax for OGLE-2017-BLG-0896 Reveals a Counter-rotating Low-mass Brown Dwarf

The kinematics of isolated brown dwarfs in the Galaxy, beyond the solar neighborhood, is virtually unknown. Microlensing has the potential to probe this hidden population, as it can measure both the mass and five of the six phase-space coordinates (all except the radial velocity) even of a dark isolated lens. However, the measurements of both the microlens-parallax and finite-source effects are needed in order to recover the full information. Here, we combine the Spitzer satellite parallax measurement with the ground-based light curve, which exhibits strong finite-source effects, of event OGLE-2017-BLG-0896. We find two degenerate solutions for the lens (due to the known satellite-parallax degeneracy), which are consistent with each other except for their proper motion. The lens is an isolated brown dwarf with a mass of either 18 ± 1 M {sub J} or 20 ± 1 M {sub J}. This is the lowest isolated-object mass measurement to date, only ∼45% more massive than the theoretical deuterium-fusion boundary at solar metallicity, which is the common definition of a free-floating planet. The brown dwarf is located at either 3.9 ± 0.1 kpc or 4.1 ± 0.1 kpc toward the Galactic bulge, but with proper motion in the opposite direction of disk stars, with one solution suggesting it is moving within the Galactic plane. While it is possibly a halo brown dwarf, it might also represent a different, unknown population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Gemini Planet Imager View of the HD 32297 Debris Disk

We present new H-band scattered light images of the HD 32297 edge-on debris disk obtained with the Gemini Planet Imager. The disk is detected in total and polarized intensity down to a projected angular separation of 0.″15, or 20 au. On the other hand, the large-scale swept-back halo remains undetected, likely a consequence of its markedly blue color relative to the parent body belt. We analyze the curvature of the disk spine and estimate a radius of ≈100 au for the parent body belt, smaller than past scattered light studies but consistent with thermal emission maps of the system. We employ three different flux-preserving post-processing methods to suppress the residual starlight and evaluate the surface brightness and polarization profile along the disk spine. Unlike past studies of the system, our high-fidelity images reveal the disk to be highly symmetric and devoid of morphological and surface brightness perturbations. We find the dust scattering properties of the system to be consistent with those observed in other debris disks, with the exception of HR 4796. Finally, we find no direct evidence for the presence of a planetary-mass object in the system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Debris Disk Results from the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey's Polarimetric Imaging Campaign

We report the results of a ∼4 yr direct imaging survey of 104 stars to resolve and characterize circumstellar debris disks in scattered light as part of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) Exoplanet Survey. We targeted nearby (≲150 pc), young (≲500 Myr) stars with high infrared (IR) excesses (L {sub IR}/L {sub ⋆} > 10{sup −5}), including 38 with previously resolved disks. Observations were made using the GPI high-contrast integral field spectrograph in H-band (1.6 μm) coronagraphic polarimetry mode to measure both polarized and total intensities. We resolved 26 debris disks and 3 protoplanetary/transitional disks. Seven debris disks were resolved in scattered light for the first time, including newly presented HD 117214 and HD 156623, and we quantified basic morphologies of five of them using radiative transfer models. All of our detected debris disks except HD 156623 have dust-poor inner holes, and their scattered-light radii are generally larger than corresponding radii measured from resolved thermal emission and those inferred from spectral energy distributions. To assess sensitivity, we report contrasts and consider causes of nondetections. Detections were strongly correlated with high IR excess and high inclination, although polarimetry outperformed total intensity angular differential imaging for detecting low-inclination disks (≲70°). Based on postsurvey statistics, we improved upon our presurvey target prioritization metric predicting polarimetric disk detectability. We also examined scattered-light disks in the contexts of gas, far-IR, and millimeter detections. Comparing H-band and ALMA fluxes for two disks revealed tentative evidence for differing grain properties. Finally, we found no preference for debris disks to be detected in scattered light if wide-separation substellar companions were present.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

KELT-11 b: Abundances of Water and Constraints on Carbon-bearing Molecules from the Hubble Transmission Spectrum

In the past decade, the analysis of exoplanet atmospheric spectra has revealed the presence of water vapor in almost all the planets observed, with the exception of a fraction of overcast planets. Indeed, water vapor presents a large absorption signature in the wavelength coverage of the Hubble Space Telescope’s (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3), which is the main space-based observatory for atmospheric studies of exoplanets, making its detection very robust. However, while carbon-bearing species such as methane, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide are also predicted from current chemical models, their direct detection and abundance characterization has remained a challenge. Here we analyze the transmission spectrum of the puffy, clear hot-Jupiter KELT-11 b from the HST WFC3 camera. We find that the spectrum is consistent with the presence of water vapor and an additional absorption at longer wavelengths than 1.5 μm, which could well be explained by a mix of carbon bearing molecules. CO{sub 2}, when included is systematically detected. One of the main difficulties to constrain the abundance of those molecules is their weak signatures across the HST WFC3 wavelength coverage, particularly when compared to those of water. Through a comprehensive retrieval analysis, we attempt to explain the main degeneracies present in this data set and explore some of the recurrent challenges that are occurring in retrieval studies (e.g., the impact of model selection, the use of free versus self-consistent chemistry, and the combination of instrument observations). Our results make this planet an exceptional example of a chemical laboratory to test current physical and chemical models of the atmospheres of hot Jupiters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Implications of z ~ 6 Quasar Proximity Zones for the Epoch of Reionization and Quasar Lifetimes

In this paper, we study quasar proximity zones in the redshift range $5.77\leqslant z\leqslant 6.54$ by homogeneously analyzing 34 medium-resolution spectra, encompassing both archival and newly obtained data, and exploiting recently updated systemic redshift and magnitude measurements. Whereas previous studies found strong evolution of proximity zone sizes with redshift and argued that this provides evidence for a rapidly evolving intergalactic medium (IGM) neutral fraction during reionization, we measure a much shallower trend $\propto {(1+z)}^{-1.44}$. We compare our measured proximity zone sizes to predictions from hydrodynamical simulations post-processed with one-dimensional radiative transfer and find good agreement between observations and theory, irrespective of the ionization state of the ambient IGM. This insensitivity to IGM ionization state has been previously noted, and results from the fact that the definition of proximity zone size as the first drop of the smoothed quasar spectrum below the 10% flux transmission level probes locations where the ionizing radiation from the quasar is an order of magnitude larger than the expected ultraviolet ionizing background that sets the neutral fraction of the IGM. Our analysis also uncovered three objects with exceptionally small proximity zones (two have ${R}_{p}\lt 1$ proper Mpc), which constitute outliers from the observed distribution and are challenging to explain with our radiative transfer simulations. Finally, we consider various explanations for their origin, such as strong absorption line systems associated with the quasar or patchy reionization, but find that the most compelling scenario is that these quasars have been shining for ≲10 5 years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reverberation Mapping of Optical Emission Lines in Five Active Galaxies

We present the first results from an optical reverberation mapping campaign executed in 2014 targeting the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) MCG+08-11-011, NGC 2617, NGC 4051, 3C 382, and Mrk 374. Our targets have diverse and interesting observational properties, including a “changing look” AGN and a broad-line radio galaxy. Based on continuum-H β lags, we measure black hole masses for all five targets. We also obtain H γ and He ii λ 4686 lags for all objects except 3C 382. The He ii λ 4686 lags indicate radial stratification of the BLR, and the masses derived from different emission lines are in general agreement. The relative responsivities of these lines are also in qualitative agreement with photoionization models. These spectra have extremely high signal-to-noise ratios (100–300 per pixel) and there are excellent prospects for obtaining velocity-resolved reverberation signatures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pair-instability Supernova Simulations: Progenitor Evolution, Explosion, and Light Curves

In recent years, the viability of the pair-instability supernova (PISN) scenario for explaining superluminous supernovae has all but disappeared except for a few slowly-evolving examples. However, PISNe are not predicted to be superluminous throughout the bulk of their mass range. In fact, it is more likely that the first PISN we see (if we have not seen one already) will not be superluminous. Here, we present hydrodynamic simulations of PISNe for four stellar models with unique envelope properties spanning the PISN mass range. In addition, we compute synthetic light curves (LCs) for comparison with current and future observations. We also investigate, in the context of our most massive model, the prospect of mixing in the supernova ejecta, alleviating discrepancies between current PISN models and the remaining superluminous candidate events. To this end, we present the first published 3D hydrodynamic simulations of PISNe. After achieving convergence between 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations, we examine mixing in the supernova ejecta and its affect on the bolometric LC. We observe slight deviations from spherical symmetry, which increase with the number of dimensions. We find no significant effects on the bolometric LC; however, we conclude that mixing between the silicon and oxygen rich layers caused by the Rayleigh–Taylor instability may affect spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparing XRISM Cluster Velocity Dispersions with Predictions from Cosmological Simulations: Are Feedback Models Too Ejective?

The dynamics of the intracluster medium (ICM), the hot plasma that fills galaxy clusters, are shaped by gravity-driven cluster mergers and feedback from supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in the cluster cores. XRISM measurements of ICM velocities in several clusters offer insights into these processes. We compare XRISM measurements for nine galaxy clusters (Virgo, Perseus, Centaurus, Hydra-A, PKS 0745–19, A2029, Coma, A2319, and Ophiuchus) with predictions from three state-of-the-art cosmological simulation suites, TNG-Cluster, the Three Hundred Project GADGET-X, and GIZMO-SIMBA, that employ different models of feedback. In cool cores, XRISM reveals systematically lower velocity dispersions than the simulations predict, with all 10 measurements below the median simulated values by a factor of 1.5–1.7 on average and all falling within the bottom 10% of the predicted distributions. The observed kinetic-to-total pressure ratio is also lower, with a median value of 2.2%, compared to the predicted 5.0%–6.5% for the three simulations. Outside the cool cores and in non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, simulations show better agreement with XRISM measurements, except for the outskirts of the relaxed, cool-core cluster A2029, which exhibits an exceptionally low kinetic pressure support (<1%), with none of the simulated systems in either of the three suites reaching such low levels. The NCC Coma and A2319 exhibit dispersions at the lower end but within the simulated spread. Our comparison suggests that the three numerical models may overestimate the kinetic effects of SMBH feedback in cluster cores. Additional XRISM observations of NCC clusters will clarify if there is a systematic tension in the gravity-dominated regime as well.

galaxy clusters↗

Effects of Fuel Properties on Particle Number and Particle Mass Emissions from Lean and Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection Engine Operation

Engine-out particle size distributions and soot mass emissions were measured from a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine fueled by seven different gasoline formulations. Additionally, particle size distributions were simultaneously measured downstream of a catalyzed gasoline particulate filter (GPF) to determine the size resolved filtration efficiency. Stoichiometric, lean homogeneous, and lean stratified combustion modes were studied at four steady-state engine conditions. The particulate matter (PM) Index was calculated for each fuel as a function of the double bond equivalent and vapor pressure of the fuel components. There was generally poor correlation between particle number (PN)/PM mass emissions and the PM Index for steady state stoichiometric conditions with clean injectors, which emitted low particle concentrations. However, under high-load lean homogeneous conditions, there was good correlation between PN/PM mass emission and the PM Index, with the exception that the high ethanol content fuel produced significantly higher PM emissions than the other fuels. Under lean stratified conditions, most fuels produced similar particle size distributions and concentrations with the exception that the E50 fuel produced significantly lower concentrations than the other fuels. These results demonstrate the profound sensitivity of particle emissions from high ethanol content fuel to engine operating conditions. Additionally, these results show the predominant factor influencing particle formation is charge mixture formation, which fuel properties influence, but not as significantly as engine conditions. Here, the GPF reduced the tailpipe particle number concentrations by 60 - 95% and showed evidence of passive regeneration under higher load lean engine conditions (Temp>400°C, Lambda>1.3). Total PN filtration efficiencies ranged from ~60 % with a clean filter to greater than 95% with as little as 25 mg/L of soot loaded on the filter with a most penetrating particle size (MPPS) between 100 and 150 nm. The GPF results show that GPF regeneration can be achieved with the added fuel efficiency benefit of lean operation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Implementing Ordinary Differential Equation Solvers in Rust Programming Language for Modeling Vehicle Powertrain Systems: Preprint

Efficient and accurate ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers are necessary for powertrain and vehicle dynamics modeling. However, current commercial ODE solvers can be financially prohibitive, leading to a need for accessible, effective, open-source ODE solvers designed for powertrain modeling. Rust is a compiled programming language that has the potential to be used for fast and easy-to-use powertrain models, given its exceptional computational performance, robust package ecosystem, and short time required for modelers to become proficient. However, of the three commonly used (>3,000 downloads) packages in Rust with ODE solver capabilities, only one has more than four numerical methods implemented, and none are designed specifically for modeling physical systems. Therefore, the goal of the Differential Equation System Solver (DESS) was to implement accurate ODE solvers in Rust designed for the component-based problems often seen in powertrain modeling. DESS is a text-based software package that provides a flexible framework for building and solving systems of ODEs. This allows DESS to be included as a dependency for automotive powertrain models that require a variety of solvers and solver configurations. Seven explicit ODE solver methods have been implemented in DESS: Euler’s, Heun’s, midpoint, Ralston’s, classic Runge-Kutta, Bogacki-Shampine, and Cash-Karp. These represent five fixed-step methods and two adaptive-step methods. This paper shows that the solver implementations increase accuracy and computational efficiency compared to Euler's method when modeling a system of three thermal masses in Rust. DESS also includes features designed for modeling component-based physical systems. Users can define relationships between nodes in their system, which the package then translates into a system of equations, leading to simpler and more intuitive code. In the case of a three-thermal-mass system, the user can specify node thermal properties (e.g., thermal capacitance), how nodes are interconnected, and thermal conductance between nodes rather than providing a system of equations. The core contribution from this work is an open-source, text-based Rust package with ODE solvers for automotive powertrain modeling to support cost-free, fast, and accurate simulation.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Data from: Early accumulation of active fraction soil carbon in newly established cellulosic biofuel systems

We examined relative changes in soil C pools shortly after the establishment of six perennial and two annual bioenergy cropping systems that differed in diversity (monoculture vs. polyculture). Perennial systems included two monocultures (switchgrass, Panicum virgatum; and miscanthus, Miscanthus × giganteus) and four polycultures including hybrid poplar (Populus sp.) + herbaceous understory; mixed native grasses, successional vegetation, and restored prairie. Two annual systems included no-till continuous corn (Zea mays) and rotational corn (corn-soybean (Glycine max)-canola (Brassica napus)). Each crop was planted in a full factorial design at both a moderate fertility Alfisol and a high fertility Mollisol site. Relative differences in active, slow, and passive C pools in surface soils, where C changes are most likely to be detected early, were evaluated with 322-day laboratory incubations followed by acid hydrolysis to infer different pools from exponential decay curves. Five years post-establishment, active C pools under perennial polycultures at the Alfisol site were up to twice those under annual and perennial monocultures, and followed the order hybrid poplars (696 ± 216 μg C g− 1 soil, n = 5 replicate blocks) ≈ native grasses (656 ± 155) ≈ restored prairie (638 ± 44) > early successional (500 ± 54) ≫ continuous corn (237 ± 68) ≈ rotational corn (180 ± n.a.). Active C pools in perennial monocultures were similar to those in continuous corn: switchgrass (274 ± 29) ≈ miscanthus (299 ± 9). In contrast, differences in active C pools among crops at the more fertile Mollisol site were not detectable except for greater pools in the restored prairie and rotational corn systems. At both sites, slow and passive C pools differed little among systems except that slow pools were greater in the poplar system. That diversity rather than perenniality itself led to greater active C pools suggests that polycultures might be used to accelerate soil C accumulation in bioenergy and other perennial cropping systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Vaisala radiosondes RS41 and RS92 at the ARM Southern Great Plains site

In the fall of 2013, the Vaisala RS41 (fourth generation) radiosonde was introduced as a replacement for the RS92-SGP radiosonde with improvements in measurement accuracy of profiles of atmospheric temperature, humidity, and pressure. In order to help characterize these improvements, an intercomparison campaign was undertaken at the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility site in north-central Oklahoma, USA. During 3–8 June 2014, a total of 20 twin-radiosonde flights were performed in a variety of atmospheric conditions representing typical midlatitude continental summertime conditions. The results show that for most of the observed conditions the RS92 and RS41 measurements agree much better than the manufacturer-specified combined uncertainties with notable exceptions when exiting liquid cloud layers where the “wet-bulbing” effect appears to be mitigated for several cases in the RS41 observations. The RS41 measurements of temperature and humidity, with applied correction algorithms, also appear to show less sensitivity to solar heating. In addition, these results suggest that the RS41 does provide important improvements, particularly in cloudy conditions. For many science applications – such as atmospheric process studies, retrieval development, and weather forecasting and climate modeling – the differences between the RS92 and RS41 measurements should have little impact. However, for long-term trend analysis and other climate applications, additional characterization of the RS41 measurements and their relation to the long-term observational records will be required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improvements to the WRF-Chem 3.5.1 model for quasi-hemispheric simulations of aerosols and ozone in the Arctic

In this study, the WRF-Chem regional model is updated to improve simulated short-lived pollutants (e.g., aerosols, ozone) in the Arctic. Specifically, we include in WRF-Chem 3.5.1 (with SAPRC-99 gas-phase chemistry and MOSAIC aerosols) (1) a correction to the sedimentation of aerosols, (2) dimethyl sulfide (DMS) oceanic emissions and gas-phase chemistry, (3) an improved representation of the dry deposition of trace gases over seasonal snow, and (4) an UV-albedo dependence on snow and ice cover for photolysis calculations. We also (5) correct the representation of surface temperatures over melting ice in the Noah Land Surface Model and (6) couple and further test the recent KF-CuP (Kain–Fritsch + Cumulus Potential) cumulus parameterization that includes the effect of cumulus clouds on aerosols and trace gases. The updated model is used to perform quasi-hemispheric simulations of aerosols and ozone, which are evaluated against surface measurements of black carbon (BC), sulfate, and ozone as well as airborne measurements of BC in the Arctic. The updated model shows significant improvements in terms of seasonal aerosol cycles at the surface and root mean square errors (RMSEs) for surface ozone, aerosols, and BC aloft, compared to the base version of the model and to previous large-scale evaluations of WRF-Chem in the Arctic. These improvements are mostly due to the inclusion of cumulus effects on aerosols and trace gases in KF-CuP (improved RMSE for surface BC and BC profiles, surface sulfate, and surface ozone), the improved surface temperatures over sea ice (surface ozone, BC, and sulfate), and the updated trace gas deposition and UV albedo over snow and ice (improved RMSE and correlation for surface ozone). DMS emissions and chemistry improve surface sulfate at all Arctic sites except Zeppelin, and correcting aerosol sedimentation has little influence on aerosols except in the upper troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A hydrological emulator for global applications – HE v1.0.0

Abstract. While global hydrological models (GHMs) are very useful in exploring water resources and interactions between the Earth and human systems, their use often requires numerous model inputs, complex model calibration, and high computation costs. To overcome these challenges, we construct an efficient open-source and ready-to-use hydrological emulator (HE) that can mimic complex GHMs at a range of spatial scales (e.g., basin, region, globe). More specifically, we construct both a lumped and a distributed scheme of the HE based on the monthly abcd model to explore the tradeoff between computational cost and model fidelity. Model predictability and computational efficiency are evaluated in simulating global runoff from 1971 to 2010 with both the lumped and distributed schemes. The results are compared against the runoff product from the widely used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Our evaluation indicates that the lumped and distributed schemes present comparable results regarding annual total quantity, spatial pattern, and temporal variation of the major water fluxes (e.g., total runoff, evapotranspiration) across the global 235 basins (e.g., correlation coefficient r between the annual total runoff from either of these two schemes and the VIC is >0.96), except for several cold (e.g., Arctic, interior Tibet), dry (e.g., North Africa) and mountainous (e.g., Argentina) regions. Compared against the monthly total runoff product from the VIC (aggregated from daily runoff), the global mean Kling–Gupta efficiencies are 0.75 and 0.79 for the lumped and distributed schemes, respectively, with the distributed scheme better capturing spatial heterogeneity. Notably, the computation efficiency of the lumped scheme is 2 orders of magnitude higher than the distributed one and 7 orders more efficient than the VIC model. A case study of uncertainty analysis for the world's 16 basins with top annual streamflow is conducted using 100 000 model simulations, and it demonstrates the lumped scheme's extraordinary advantage in computational efficiency. Our results suggest that the revised lumped abcd model can serve as an efficient and reasonable HE for complex GHMs and is suitable for broad practical use, and the distributed scheme is also an efficient alternative if spatial heterogeneity is of more interest.

Liu, Yaling↗

NASA Scout ST-1 Flight-Test Results and Analyses, Launch Operations, and Test Vehicle Description

The first of a series of flight tests for the development of the four-stage, solid-propellant Scout vehicle was conducted at the NASA Wallops Station under the direction of the Langley Research Center. Vehicle designation for the test was NASA Scout ST-1. Performance characteristics of the vehicle and components were recorded during a high-altitude probe mission. Flight-simulation studies are presented and show that the accuracy of the guidance system during the flight was within control-system design specifications. The control system functioned normally during the flight with the exception of an overpowering of the reaction-control roll jets near burnout of the third-stage rocket motor. The resulting roll displacement of the vehicle is shown to have caused the monitor tracking radar which had been erroneously tracking a radar beacon in the vehicle on a side lobe to reorient to the major lobe of the receiving antenna. This tracking switch falsely indicated a violent turning maneuver on the monitor plot board and resulted in a hold-fire decision for the fourth-stage rocket motor. Although data for the final thrusting and coast phase of the flight were not obtained, the majority of the test objectives were achieved. In-flight thrust misalignment angles for the second- and third-stage rocket motors derived from control-system error data and for the first-stage motor determined from flight-simulation studies are presented. All rocket-motor thrust misalignment angles were well within the tolerances used for control-system design. Rocket-motor flight performance is presented, and velocity increments attained from the first three stages substantiated the predicted nominal performance. Operation of the rocket motors was satisfactory with the exception of high-level vibrations which were encountered during third-stage motor burning. Rolling moments which overpowered the reaction-control jets are also attributed to the burning characteristics of the third-stage motor. A discussion of the premature loss of the third-stage heat shield is given and shows that the heat-shield latching mechanism failed from pressure loads as the vehicle entered the transonic speed range. Although venting was provided to relieve the high negative pressures known to exist on the heat shield at these speeds, a field modification of the wiring tunnel had the same effect as opening the inside of the heat shield to ambient pressures. Consequently, the latching mechanism failed from pressure loads which were of about the same magnitude as the latching-mechanism yield loads. Skin temperatures were recorded at several locations on the vehicle and were generally in good agreement with theoretical values. Aerodynamic heating presented no problem during the flight since the maximum temperatures recorded during the flight were only about half the design values because of the high-launch-angle trajectory. Environmental vibrations recorded in the vicinity of the guidance package showed that no significant continuous amplitude levels above the general instrumentation noise level were present during first- and second-stage burning. Large vibration amplitudes were recorded during third-stage burning which coincided with the large roll disturbance experienced by the vehicle near burnout of the third-stage motor.

Scout Launch Vehicle↗