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SEL is a serious obstacle to use of state-of-the-art microelectronics, and a priori prediction of SEL susceptibility has proven elusive. We develop SEL risk-assessment tools based on analysis of large archives of SEL test data for unhardened CMOS parts. Results include a flexible method for bounding SEL rates even with minimal test data.
In this talk, we present results from a study, funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program, of thirty years of environmental change in the country of Georgia. The country, a former Soviet Union Republic, has experienced more political, economic and social change in the last 30 years than most countries. But the environmental implications of these extreme events remain largely unknown – the region is understudied, no national forest inventory has been completed in 20 years, and previous research in the area conducted by the authors were not successful. The latter statement is because of forest degradation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the forestry infrastructure broke down and people resorted to chopping down individual trees. The result was in many parts of the country a reduction in forest biomass but not to the point of a change in land cover. This type of forest degradation, which was either gradual over decades or abrupt, could not be readily identified using the methods and data at our disposal at the time. In the recent study, we had full access to the Landsat archive in combination with computing power. By using monitoring methods that are based on time series analysis, we were able to capture and identify the gradual processes driven by small scale activities that are so characteristic of the post-Soviet Georgian landscape. We developed an approach (“CCDC-SMA”) that combines time series analysis and spectral mixture analysis running on Google Earth Engine for monitoring abrupt and gradual forest degradation. By using this approach, we found that forest degradation was significantly larger than the area estimate of deforestation; 3,541 ± 556 km2 (11% of the forest area in 1987) compared to 158 ± 98 km2 from 1987 to 2020. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. To further our understanding of the underlying causes, we combined forest disturbance estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. We found that higher winter temperature and drought were associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought were associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.
The historical development of NACA airfoils is briefly reviewed. New data are presented that permit the rapid calculation of the approximate pressure distributions for the older NACA four-digit and five-digit airfoils by the same methods used for the NACA 6-series airfoils. The general methods used to derive the basic thickness forms for NACA 6 and 7-series airfoils together with their corresponding pressure distributions are presented. Detail data necessary for the application of the airfoils to wing design are presented in supplementary figures placed at the end of the paper. The report includes an analysis of the lift, drag, pitching-moment, and critical-speed characteristics of the airfoils, together with a discussion of the effects of surface conditions. Available data on high-lift devices are presented. Problems associated with lateral-control devices, leading-edge air intakes, and interference are briefly discussed, together with aerodynamic problems of application. (author)
Historical atmospheric longwave irradiance data sets with traceability to the International System of Units (SI) are essential for renewable energy and atmospheric science research and applications. To date, all pyrgeometers used to measure the irradiance are traceable to the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG), not to SI units. In 2013, the Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) (Reda et al. 2012) was developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to measure the atmospheric longwave irradiance. The ACP has been compared against the InfraRed Integrating Sphere (IRIS), developed by the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) (Grobner 2012). The ACP and the IRIS are absolute instruments traceable to SI units through the International Temperature Scale of 1990. Results of six comparisons between the ACP and the IRIS at different locations have shown that the irradiance measured by WISG pyrgeometers underestimates clear-sky atmospheric longwave irradiance by 2 W/m 2 to 6 W/m 2 (Grobner et al. 2014); therefore, once the world reference is established with traceability to SI units, the WISG would be corrected, then used to calibrate field pyrgeometers with traceability to SI units. The following described method is used to correct the historical atmospheric longwave irradiance data sets in anticipation of the WISG scale change.
Historical atmospheric longwave irradiance data sets with traceability to the International System of Units (SI) are essential for renewable energy and atmospheric science research and applications. To date, all pyrgeometers used to measure the irradiance are traceable to the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG), not to SI units. In 2013, the Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) (Reda et al. 2012) was developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to measure the atmospheric longwave irradiance. The ACP has been compared against the InfraRed Integrating Sphere (IRIS), developed by the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) (Gröbner 2012). The ACP and the IRIS are absolute instruments traceable to SI units through the International Temperature Scale of 1990. Results of six comparisons between the ACP and the IRIS at different locations have shown that the irradiance measured by WISG pyrgeometers underestimates clear-sky atmospheric longwave irradiance by 2 W/m 2 to 6 W/m 2 (Gröbner et al. 2014); therefore, once the world reference is established with traceability to SI units, the WISG would be corrected, then used to calibrate field pyrgeometers with traceability to SI units. The following described method is used to correct the historical atmospheric longwave irradiance data sets in anticipation of the WISG scale change.
Abstract Reliable vertical position control will be an essential element of any future tokamak-based fusion power plant in order to reduce disruptions and maximize performance. We investigate methods to improve vertical controllability boundary determination in plasma operational space and demonstrate a data-driven approach based on direct pseudoinversion of operational space data that is rigorously quantitative, applicable in real-time plasma control systems, and physically intuitive to interpret. Applied to historical shot data from entire run campaigns on the MAST-U, KSTAR, and NSTX tokamaks, this approach, implemented in DECAF, improves vertical displacement event identification accuracy to 98.9%–100%. Further, we explore the application of a physics-based vertical stability metric as an early warning forecaster for vertical displacement events. The development of a linear surrogate model for the plasma current density profile, with a coefficient of determination of 0.992 on the training dataset, enables potential employment of this forecaster in real-time. The application of this approach on historical data from the MAST-U MU02 campaign yields a forecaster with 62.6% accuracy, indicating promise for this method when further refined and potentially coupled with other stability metrics.
There are over 25 years of historical satellite data available to climate analysis. The historical satellite data needs to be well calibrated, especially in the visible, where there is no onboard calibration on operational satellites. The key to the vicarious calibration of historical satellites relies on invariant targets, such as the moon, Dome C, and deserts. Deep convective clouds (DCC) also show promise of being a stable invariant or predictable target viewable by all satellites, since they behave as solar diffusers. However DCC have not been well characterized for calibration. Ten years of well-calibrated MODIS is now available. DCC can easily be identified using IR thresholds, where the IR calibration can be traced to the onboard black-bodies. The natural variability of DCC albedo will be analyzed geographically and seasonally, especially difference of convection initiated over land or ocean. Functionality between particle size and ozone absorption with DCC albedo will be examined. Although DCC clouds are nearly Lambertion, the angular distribution of reflectances will be sampled and compared with theoretical models. Both Aqua and Terra MODIS DCC angular models will be compared for consistency. Normalizing angular geostationary DCC reflectances, which were calibrated against MODIS, with SCIAMACHY spectral reflectances and comparing them to MODIS DCC reflectances will inspect the usage of DCC albedos as an absolute calibration target.
Historical and traceable atmospheric longwave irradiance data sets with traceability to the International System of units (SI) are essential for renewable energy and atmospheric science research and applications. To date, all pyrgeometers used to measure the irradiance are traceable to the interim World InfraRed Standard Group (WISG) not to SI units. In 2013 the Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP), [Reda et al., 2012] was developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to measure the atmospheric longwave irradiance. The ACP has been compared against the InfraRed Integrating Sphere (IRIS) developed by the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) [J. Grobner, 2012]. ACP and IRIS are absolute instruments traceable to SI units through the International Temperature Scale ITS-90. Results of six comparisons between ACP and IRIS at different location have shown that the irradiance measured by WISG pyrgeometers is underestimating clear-sky atmospheric longwave irradiance by 2 to 6 W/m 2 [Grobner et al., 2014]. Therefore, once the world reference is established with traceability to SI units the WISG would be corrected then used to calibrate field pyrgeometers with traceability to SI units. The described method below is used to correct the historical atmospheric longwave irradiance data sets in anticipation of the WISG scale change.
The Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), NASA's primary communications link between near-earth orbiting spacecraft and the ground, is addressed. The TDRSS supporting elements and their roles are described along with the different phases of the TDRSS life cycle. Users of TDRSS and the extent of support given to them are shown. TDRSS performance is evaluated in terms of availability and service proficiency.
Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.
Many rate theory models of cavity (void) swelling have been published over the past 50 years, all having the same, or similar, structures. A rigorous validation of the models has not been possible because of the dearth of information concerning the microstructures that correspond with the swelling data. Whereas the lack of microstructure information is still an issue for historical swelling data, in the past 10–20 years data have been published on the evolution of the microstructure (point defect yields from collision cascades, cavity number densities, and dislocation densities/yield strengths) allowing certain gaps in information to be filled when considering historic swelling data. With reasonable estimates of key microstructure parameters, a standard rate theory model can be applied, and the model parameter space explored, in connection with historical swelling data. By using published data on: (i) yield strength as a function of dose and temperature (to establish an empirical expression for dislocation density evolution); (ii) cavity number densities as a function of temperature; and (iii) freely migrating defect (FMD) production as a function of primary knock-on atom (PKA) spectrum, the necessary parameter and microstructure inputs that were previously unknown can be used in model development. This paper describes a rate-theory model for void swelling of 316 stainless steel irradiated in the EBR-2 reactor as a function of irradiation temperature and neutron dose.
In the surface hydrologic parameterization of general circulation models (GCMs), it is commonly assumed that the precipitation processes are homogeneous over a GCM grid square and that the precipitation intensity is uniformly distributed. Based on evidence that the spatial distribution of precipitation within a GCM grid square is crucial for the land surface hydrology parameterization, a few researchers have explored the impacts of assuming that the precipitation is exponentially distributed. This paper explores the suitability of the aforementioned assumptions. First, a statistical analysis is conducted of historical precipitation data for three GCM grids in different regions of the United States. The analysis suggests that neither the uniform nor the exponential distribution assumption may be suitable at the GCM grid scale and, that instead, the spatial variability in precipitation is characterized by statistical patterns that are inhomogeneous. These patterns vary from grid to grid and are induced by the interaction between atmospheric conditions and various land surface characteristics, such as topographical features, surface properties, etc. Within the same grid square, however, the statistical patterns are generally constant from year to year. Based on this analysis, a computationally viable (i.e., usable with GCMs) stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme that utilizes these stable statistical patterns is proposed. The method was used to generate spatially distributed hourly rainfall for a summer season in the southwestern region of the continental United States. Analysis of the results shows that the methodology preserves the seasonal characteristics of spatial variability in precipitation that is observed in the long-term historical data.
Conducting human exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will present unique challenges in the areas of supportability and maintainability. The durations of proposed missions can be relatively long and re-supply of logistics, including maintenance and repair items, will be limited or non-existent. In addition, mass and volume constraints in the transportation system will limit the total amount of logistics that can be flown along with the crew. These constraints will require that new strategies be developed with regards to how spacecraft systems are designed and maintained. NASA is currently developing Design Reference Missions (DRMs) as an initial step in defining future human missions. These DRMs establish destinations and concepts of operation for future missions, and begin to define technology and capability requirements. Because of the unique supportability challenges, historical supportability data and models are not directly applicable for establishing requirements for beyond LEO missions. However, supportability requirements could have a major impact on the development of the DRMs. The mass, volume, and crew resources required to support the mission could all be first order drivers in the design of missions, elements, and operations. Therefore, there is a need for enhanced analysis capabilities to more accurately establish mass, volume, and time requirements for supporting beyond LEO missions. Additionally, as new technologies and operations are proposed to reduce these requirements, it is necessary to have accurate tools to evaluate the efficacy of those approaches. In order to improve the analysis of supportability requirements for beyond LEO missions, the Space Missions Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center is developing the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT). This tool is a probabilistic simulator that evaluates the need for repair and maintenance activities during space missions and the logistics and crew requirements to support those activities. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the tool simulates potential failures in defined systems, based on established component reliabilities, and then evaluates the capability of the crew to repair those failures given a defined store of spares and maintenance items. Statistical analysis of Monte Carlo runs provides probabilistic estimates of overall mission safety and reliability. This paper will describe the operation of the EMAT, including historical data sources used to populate the model, simulation processes, and outputs. Analysis results are provided for a candidate exploration system, including baseline estimates of required sparing mass and volume. Sensitivity analysis regarding the effectiveness of proposed strategies to reduce mass and volume requirements and improve mission reliability is included in these results.
Abstract Causal query estimation in biomolecular networks commonly selects a ‘valid adjustment set’, i.e. a subset of network variables that eliminates the bias of the estimator. A same query may have multiple valid adjustment sets, each with a different variance. When networks are partially observed, current methods use graph-based criteria to find an adjustment set that minimizes asymptotic variance. Unfortunately, many models that share the same graph topology, and therefore same functional dependencies, may differ in the processes that generate the observational data. In these cases, the topology-based criteria fail to distinguish the variances of the adjustment sets. This deficiency can lead to sub-optimal adjustment sets, and to miss-characterization of the effect of the intervention. We propose an approach for deriving ‘optimal adjustment sets’ that takes into account the nature of the data, bias and finite-sample variance of the estimator, and cost. It empirically learns the data generating processes from historical experimental data, and characterizes the properties of the estimators by simulation. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach in four biomolecular Case studies with different topologies and different data generation processes. The implementation and reproducible Case studies are at https://github.com/srtaheri/OptimalAdjustmentSet.
This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.
This report explores the potential for using responses from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC’s) “Electric Utility Annual Report,” also known as FERC Form 1, as a cost database for conventional and pumped storage hydropower (PSH). The report outlines the process used to compile an easy-to-access database from the original FERC Form 1 data and discusses the historical cost/performance data. The steps for developing the database include downloading the annual FoxPro files from the FERC website (FERC, 2020), reading them into an Excel format, and reconciling naming issues across years, repeated entries, and shared assets, among others. The cleaned and compiled Form 1 database is available on Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) HydroSource website. For this report, the compiled Form 1 database was linked to two other hydropower databases, the National Inventory of Dams and the ORNL Existing Hydropower Assets, that provide additional information on the characteristics and other features of plants in the Form 1 data. Explorations of the plant characteristics, performance, capital costs, and operation and maintenance (O&M) cost data in the combined database were presented separately for conventional hydropower and PSH projects. Form 1 has several advantages as a hydropower cost database. First, the cost data is reported directly by plant owners. Second, Form 1 provides cost breakdowns of capital and operating costs for large conventional and PSH plants enabling more detailed tracking of hydropower costs compared with typical total cost estimates. Third, although the Form 1 data is not reported by all operational hydropower plants in the United States, the available data represents a wide range of plant characteristics and a sizable proportion of the hydropower fleet (61% of PSH plants and 22% of conventional hydropower plants by capacity). The lower proportion of the conventional hydropower fleet is because Form 1 reporting requirements apply only to private utilities that meet given size thresholds, leaving out federally owned facilities and many smaller hydropower plants. Overall, the Form 1 cost database represents a unique, publicly available database on hydropower asset capital and O&M costs. This report leads to a compiled database for the reporting years 1994 to 2020 that helps resolve issues with accessibility and use of the FERC Form 1 data by hydropower plant owners, project developers, technology developers, and regulators.
This chapter presents results from the Big Data analysis framework to improve power system situational awareness and system reliability. For this purpose, a dataset with real-world phasor measurement unit data and historical transmission system outage data has been created and used to carry out the analysis. Several statistical analysis and machine learning methods have been developed and implemented for event and anomaly detection and modeling. Detection and analysis results for actual examples of power system events are presented. Finally, data-driven characterization and risk assessment methods for weather-related extremes in power systems are developed and demonstrated on the Bonneville Power Administration system. These applications demonstrate the capability of Machine Learning (ML) methods to monitor system abnormalities, to predict system events, and to characterize the impact of extreme events on power grid
Historical experience in the High-Performance Computing community teaches us that as computing systems grow, the instance of failures goes from rare to a regular occurrence. A survey of the growth in the size and complexity of Data AcQuisition (DAQ) networks in High-Energy Physics (HEP) experiments reveals that these networks are scaling exponentially, trending to a point where automated fault handling should be considered over the current manual practice, especially given the rarity of data such as in DUNE's mission to observe core-collapse supernovae. We propose a general system, DiDAQt, which is designed to provide fault detection and handling in HEP DAQs specifically, through MPI-like primitives that allow it to be added easily to existing systems. We evaluate the scalability and response time of a prototype on the FABRIC national testbed, with results indicating sufficient scalability for current and near-future DAQs as well as practical response times (under 1 microsecond decision time).