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At least 631 records · Page 35

A Machine Learning-based Reliability Evaluation Model for Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a hybrid machine learning method for the reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas systems (IPGS) under the uncertain component failure probability distributions. The Random Forest (RF) method is designed to select important features to solve the insufficient quantity of data and the curse of dimensionality problems. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm is developed to quantify the relationship between the uncertain parameters and reliability metrics. Moreover, a ten-fold cross-validation method is employed to further improve the accuracy of the regression model. Simulation results on three test systems show that the proposed method can achieve high accuracy for the reliability evaluation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of neoclassical tearing mode stabilization experiment by electron cyclotron injection in KSTAR

We report the neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) stabilization experimental results by injection of the electron cyclotron (EC) beam in KSTAR, and its analysis with integrated modelling. In the KSTAR experiment, NTM was intentionally induced and the EC beam was injected by the plasma control system (PCS) to stabilize it. Here, the EC angle was controlled based on the minimum seeking algorithm for the island growth rate. Although the EC angle was not changed significantly, the island width significantly decreased towards the end of the experiment followed by the recovery of plasma performance. To assess the NTM stabilization experiment from a stability perspective, we performed integrated modelling with TRIASSIC utilizing the reconstructed equilibrium with magnetic diagnostics and motional stark effect diagnostics. As a result, we observed that the NTM is stabilized by EC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

SPATIO-TEMPORAL DATA MODEL FOR INTEGRATING EVOLVING NATION-LEVEL DATASETS

Ability to easily combine the data from diverse sources in a single analytical workflow is one of the greatest promises of the Big Data technologies. However, such integration is often challenging as datasets originate from different vendors, governments, and research communities that results in multiple incompatibilities including data representations, formats, and semantics. Semantics differences are hardest to handle: different communities often use different attribute definitions and associate the records with different sets of evolving geographic entities. Analysis of global socioeconomic variables across multiple datasets over prolonged time is often complicated by the difference in how boundaries and histories of countries or other geographic entities are represented. Here we propose an event-based data model for depicting and tracking histories of evolving geographic units (countries, provinces, etc.) and their representations in disparate data. The model addresses the semantic challenge of preserving identity of geographic entities over time by defining criteria for the entity existence, a set of events that may affect its existence, and rules for mapping between different representations (datasets). Proposed model is used for maintaining an evolving compound database of global socioeconomic and environmental data harvested from multiple sources. Practical implementation of our model is demonstrated using PostgreSQL object-relational database with the use of temporal, geospatial, and NoSQL database extensions.

Sorokine, Alexandre↗

A holistic framework integrating plant-microbe-mineral regulation of soil bioavailable nitrogen

Abstract Soil organic nitrogen (N) is a critical resource for plants and microbes, but the processes that govern its cycle are not well-described. To promote a holistic understanding of soil N dynamics, we need an integrated model that links soil organic matter (SOM) cycling to bioavailable N in both unmanaged and managed landscapes, including agroecosystems. We present a framework that unifies recent conceptual advances in our understanding of three critical steps in bioavailable N cycling: organic N (ON) depolymerization and solubilization; bioavailable N sorption and desorption on mineral surfaces; and microbial ON turnover including assimilation, mineralization, and the recycling of microbial products. Consideration of the balance between these processes provides insight into the sources, sinks, and flux rates of bioavailable N. By accounting for interactions among the biological, physical, and chemical controls over ON and its availability to plants and microbes, our conceptual model unifies complex mechanisms of ON transformation in a concrete conceptual framework that is amenable to experimental testing and translates into ideas for new management practices. This framework will allow researchers and practitioners to use common measurements of particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) to design strategic organic N-cycle interventions that optimize ecosystem productivity and minimize environmental N loss.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

Modeling the Integration of Marine Energy into Microgrids - Wave Resource Assessment

This submission has wave resource assessments which were conducted for six locations based on IEC requirements using the DOE WPTO Hindcast data and MHKiT. The locations are chosen to provide varying wave climates and include PacWave South, OR; Wave Energy Testing Site (WETS), HI; Molokai, HI; St. Paul, AK; Yakutat, Ak; and Sebastion, FL. It includes the data gathered and the resulting report. This submission also includes a link to Hindcast dataset and some relevant software.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Bias Corrected NOAA HRRR Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications

To address the need for regularly updated wind resource data, NREL has processed the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs for use in grid integration modeling. The HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). Several barriers have prevented the HRRR's widespread proliferation in the wind energy industry: missing timesteps (prior to 2019), challenging file format for wind energy analysis, limited vertical height resolution, and negative bias versus legacy WIND Toolkit data (2007-2013). NREL has applied re-gridding, interpolation, and bias-correction to the native HRRR data to overcome these limitations. This results in the now-publicly-available bias corrected and interpolated HRRR (BC-HRRR) dataset for weather years 2015 to 2023. Bias correction is necessary for wind resource consistency across weather years to be used simultaneously in planning-focused grid integration studies alongside the original WIND Toolkit data. We show that quantile mapping with the WIND Toolkit as a historical baseline is an effective method for bias correcting the interpolated HRRR data: the BC-HRRR has reduced mean bias versus comparable gridded wind resource datasets (+0.12 m/s versus Vortex) and has very low mean bias versus ground measurement stations (+0.01 m/s) (Buster et al., 2024). BC-HRRR's consistency with the legacy WIND Toolkit allows NREL to extend grid integration analysis to 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. As with historical datasets like the WIND Toolkit, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling) both independently and alongside the legacy WIND Toolkit.

Array↗

Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on water availability in the Nile Basin over the longer term. Depending on the GERD fill rate, short-term (e.g., within its first 5 years of operation) annual losses in Egyptian food production may peak briefly at 25 percent. Long-term (e.g., 15 to 30 year) cumulative losses in Egypt's food production may be less than 3 percent regardless of the fill rate, with the GERD having essentially no impact on projected annual food production in Egypt about 25 years after opening. For the quick fill rates, the short-term losses may be sufficient to create an important decrease in overall household health among the general population, which, along with other economic stressors and different strategies employed by the government, could lead to social unrest. Third, and perhaps most importantly, our modeling suggests that the GERD's effect on Egypt's food and water resources is small when compared to the effect of projected Egyptian population and economic growth (and the concomitant increase in water consumption). The latter dominating factors are exacerbated in the modeling by natural climate variability and may be further exacerbated by climate change. Our modeling suggests that these growth dynamics combine to create long-term water scarcity in Egypt, regardless of the Ethiopian project. All else being equal, filling strategies that employ slow fill rates for the GERD (e.g., 8 to 13 years) may mitigate the risks in future scenarios for Egypt somewhat, but no policy or action regarding the GERD is likely to significantly alleviate the projected water scarcity in Egypt's Nile Basin. However, general beliefs among the Egyptian populace regarding the GERD as a major contributing factor for scarcities in Egypt could make Ethiopia a scapegoat for Egyptian grievances -- contributing to social unrest in Egypt and generating undesirable (and unnecessary) tension between these two countries. Such tension could threaten the constructive relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia that are vital to maintaining stability and security within and between their respective regional spheres of influence, Middle East and North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Bosch Process System Models for In-Situ Oxygen and Carbon Production

In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) technology is a vital component to NASA’s mission of a sustainable presence on the Moon and Mars. Local resources can be leveraged to reduce resupply frequency and mass. Elements of the Bosch process, combined with the carbothermal reduction process, can produce oxygen on the lunar surface with minimal consumables. The Bosch process can also produce oxygen on the Martian surface by using the CO 2 -rich environment. Between both systems, adsorption pump, solar thermal energy, carbon formation reactor, and water recovery subsystems are modeled and integrated to create a functional model in MATLAB software. The model is used to simulate performance of the system and reduce mass, power, and volume requirements. This integrated system model provides a tool to scale ISRU technologies for oxygen and carbon production. The MATLAB model is created by developing a system of independent subsystem models that are solved for their quasi-steady state values which can be integrated with respect to time to determine the change in current states. A flexible time stepping method is used to ensure a high level of accuracy during periods of rapid change while still making use of a simple explicit integration method. The flexible time step is calculated for each independent subsystem and the minimum value from those is used as the overall time step. A flexible time step is calculated by dividing a resolution value, or the maximum change per time step, by the variables current rate of change. The maximum value from all points in space is used for subsystem models that contain multiple values. The process is done for every variable that is being monitored in each subsystem and the global minimum is used as that iteration’s timestep. Several assumptions used in the MATLAB model for fluid flow dynamics, such as 1-D gas flow through the sorption pump, are supported by modeling in Ansys Fluent software. The Lunar oxygen production system is outlined in Fig. 1. The carbothermal reduction subsystem uses solar energy to heat a mixture of lunar regolith and carbon powder to produce carbon monoxide. To begin, the carbon monoxide feeds to the modified Bosch subsystem along with hydrogen gas. The reactants then enter the carbon formation reactor where water and carbon powder are produced. Solar thermal energy is used to add energy to the reactor, but waste heat from the carbothermal process is another potential heat source. The water is collected and electrolyzed to produce hydrogen which reenters the Bosch subsystem, and the oxygen is stored for downstream use. The carbon powder is collected and feeds back into the carbothermal subsystem. The Martian oxygen production system uses the full Bosch process and is outlined in Fig 2. A CO 2 adsorption pump thermally cycles to scrub and pressurize CO 2 from the environment. Along with an initial supply of hydrogen, the reactants enter the Reverse Water Gas Shift Reactor (RWGSR) which produces carbon monoxide and water. Carbon monoxide and unreacted hydrogen enter the carbon formation reactor to produce water and carbon powder. The water is collected from both reactors and electrolyzed to reintroduce hydrogen and store oxygen for propellant production or life support. Carbon is removed from the carbon formation reactor and stored. The adsorption pump utilizes rapid cycle temperature swings within a stack of zeolite coated surfaces. The subsystem model solves 1-D quasi-steady conservation laws of the quasi-steady form, shown in Eq. 1, for the gas stream and heat exchange liquid to predict performance parameters such as breakthrough capacity and optimum cycle time. The source term S is used to capture interactions between the fluid flows and the sorbent. A quasi-steady-state scheme is used where no time derivatives appear in the governing equations, except for those in the source terms. This results in an autonomous system, where ∂F/∂x = ƒ(F). The fluxes F are provided at the inlet, and an explicit method is used to solve for the spatial distribution of F. The heat and mass flows to the sorbent are then extracted from the source terms. These flows are numerically integrated to produce a 1-D solution for the system’s state as a function of both time and space. The body of the adsorption pump is separated into two semi-independent models: the heat exchanger fluid flow and gas flow through the zeolite coated surfaces. Both models are solved using the above-described method to find a 1-D solution as a function of space and interact only once a timestep is taken. The interaction point is the sorbent through which all heat transfer between the two models must occur. Sorbent mass adsorption is calculated using the Lagergren model, shown in Eq. 2, where the transfer coefficient, λ D , is found by solving a system of nondimensionalized equations derived by using the heat and mass transfer analogy for transport phenomena. Using Grade 544 Type 13X zeolite as the sorbent material, the equilibrium concentration, θ eq , is calculated using the k-site Langmuir isotherm and fit parameters. Additionally, the enthalpy of adsorption used in the model is computed by interpolation of available data [1]. The subsystem model was validated using the Rapid Cycle Temperature Swing Adsorption (RC-TSA) pump. The solar thermal energy subsystem focuses on a solar concentrator concept with a heat exchanger to heat the reactants before entering the carbon formation reactor. The subsystem model assumes a fixed solar flux and reflector efficiency to calculate the reactant temperature given the incoming temperature, pressure, and exchanger geometry. The receiver is a custom manufactured series of copper blocks with serpentine channels to increase its surface area and the residence time of the reactants to heat up to 550 °C. The subsystem model was validated using a heat exchanger developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The solar thermal energy subsystem focuses on a solar concentrator concept with a heat exchanger to heat the reactants before entering the carbon formation reactor. The subsystem model assumes a fixed solar flux and reflector efficiency to calculate the reactant temperature given the incoming temperature, pressure, and exchanger geometry. The receiver is a custom manufactured series of copper blocks with serpentine channels to increase its surface area and the residence time of the reactants to heat up to 550 °C. The subsystem model was validated using a heat exchanger developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC).

In situ Resource Utilization↗

Enhancements to the Engine Data Interpretation System (EDIS)

The Engine Data Interpretation System (EDIS) expert system project assists the data review personnel at NASA/MSFC in performing post-test data analysis and engine diagnosis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). EDIS uses knowledge of the engine, its components, and simple thermodynamic principles instead of, and in addition to, heuristic rules gathered from the engine experts. EDIS reasons in cooperation with human experts, following roughly the pattern of logic exhibited by human experts. EDIS concentrates on steady-state static faults, such as small leaks, and component degradations, such as pump efficiencies. The objective of this contract was to complete the set of engine component models, integrate heuristic rules into EDIS, integrate the Power Balance Model into EDIS, and investigate modification of the qualitative reasoning mechanisms to allow 'fuzzy' value classification. The results of this contract is an operational version of EDIS. EDIS will become a module of the Post-Test Diagnostic System (PTDS) and will, in this context, provide system-level diagnostic capabilities which integrate component-specific findings provided by other modules.

Hofmann, Martin O.↗

Enhancements to the Engine Data Interpretation System (EDIS)

The Engine Data Interpretation System (EDIS) expert system project assists the data review personnel at NASA/MSFC in performing post-test data analysis and engine diagnosis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). EDIS uses knowledge of the engine, its components, and simple thermodynamic principles instead of, and in addition to, heuristic rules gathered from the engine experts. EDIS reasons in cooperation with human experts, following roughly the pattern of logic exhibited by human experts. EDIS concentrates on steady-state static faults, such as small leaks, and component degradations, such as pump efficiencies. The objective of this contract was to complete the set of engine component models, integrate heuristic rules into EDIS, integrate the Power Balance Model into EDIS, and investigate modification of the qualitative reasoning mechanisms to allow 'fuzzy' value classification. The result of this contract is an operational version of EDIS. EDIS will become a module of the Post-Test Diagnostic System (PTDS) and will, in this context, provide system-level diagnostic capabilities which integrate component-specific findings provided by other modules.

Hofmann, Martin O.↗

Ideal MHD stability and characteristics of edge localized modes on CFETR

Investigation on the equilibrium operation regime, its ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) stability and edge localized modes (ELM) characteristics is performed for the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR). The CFETR operation regime study starts with a baseline scenario (R = 5.7 m, B T = 5 T) derived from multi-code integrated modeling, with key parameters ${{\beta }_{{\rm N}}},{{\beta }_{{\rm T}}},{{\beta }_{{\rm p}}}$ varied to build a systematic database. These parameters, under profile and pedestal constraints, provide the foundation for the engineering design. The long wavelength low-n global ideal MHD stability of the CFETR baseline scenario, including the wall stabilization effect, is evaluated by GATO. It is found that the low-n core modes are stable with a wall at r/a = 1.2. An investigation of intermediate wavelength ideal MHD modes (peeling ballooning modes) is also carried out by multi-code benchmarking, including GATO, ELITE, BOUT++ and NIMROD. A good agreement is achieved in predicting edge-localized instabilities. Nonlinear behavior of ELMs for the baseline scenario is simulated using BOUT++. A mix of grassy and type I ELMs is identified. When the size and magnetic field of CFETR are increased (R = 6.6 m, B T = 6 T), collisionality correspondingly increases and the instability is expected to shift to grassy ELMs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Effects of Zoledronate and Mechanical Loading during Simulated Weightlessness on Bone Structure and Mechanical Properties

Space flight modulates bone remodeling to favor bone resorption. Current countermeasures include an anti-resorptive drug class, bisphosphonates (BP), and high-force loading regimens. Does the combination of anti-resorptives and high-force exercise during weightlessness have negative effects on the mechanical and structural properties of bone? In this study, we implemented an integrated model to mimic mechanical strain of exercise via cyclical loading (CL) in mice treated with the BP Zoledronate (ZOL) combined with hindlimb unloading (HU). Our working hypothesis is that CL combined with ZOL in the HU model induces additive structural and mechanical changes. Thirty-two C57BL6 mice (male,16 weeks old, n8group) were exposed to 3 weeks of either HU or normal ambulation (NA). Cohorts of mice received one subcutaneous injection of ZOL (45gkg), or saline vehicle, prior to experiment. The right tibia was axially loaded in vivo, 60xday to 9N in compression, repeated 3xweek during HU. During the application of compression, secant stiffness (SEC), a linear estimate of slope of the force displacement curve from rest (0.5N) to max load (9.0N), was calculated for each cycle once per week. Ex vivo CT was conducted on all subjects. For ex vivo mechanical properties, non-CL left femurs underwent 3-point bending. In the proximal tibial metaphysis, HU decreased, CL increased, and ZOL increased the cancellous bone volume to total volume ratio by -26, +21, and +33, respectively. Similar trends held for trabecular thickness and number. Ex vivo left femur mechanical properties revealed HU decreased stiffness (-37),and ZOL mitigated the HU stiffness losses (+78). Data on the ex vivo Ultimate Force followed similar trends. After 3 weeks, HU decreased in vivo SEC (-16). The combination of CL+HU appeared additive in bone structure and mechanical properties. However, when HU + CL + ZOL were combined, ZOL had no additional effect (p0.05) on in vivo SEC. Structural data followed this trend with ZOL not modulating trabecular thickness in CL + NAHU mice. In summary, our integrated model simulates the combination of weightlessness, exercise-induced mechanical strain, and anti-resorptive treatment that astronauts experience during space missions. Based on these results, we conclude that, at the structural and stiffness level, zoledronate treatment during simulated spaceflight does not impede the skeletal response to axial compression. In contrast to our hypothesis, our data show that zoledronate confers no additional mechanical or structural benefit beyond those gained from cyclical loading.

Mechanical Loading↗

Zoledronate Prevents Simulated Weightlessness-Induced Bone Loss in the Cancellous Compartment While Blunting the Efficacy of a Mechanical Loading Countermeasure

Astronauts using high-force resistance training while weightless show a high-turnover remodeling state within the skeletal system, with resorption and formation biomarkers being elevated. One countermeasure for the skeletal health of astronauts includes an antiresorptive of the bisphosphonate (BP) drug class. We asked, does the combination of an anti-resorptive and high-force exercise during weightlessness have negative effects on bone remodeling and strength? In this study, we developed an integrated model to mimic the mechanical strain of exercise via cyclical loading (CL) in mice treated with the BP Zoledronate (ZOL) combined with hind limb unloading (HU) to simulate weightlessness. We hypothesized that ZOL prevents structural degradation from simulated weightlessness and that CL and ZOL interact to render CL less effective. Thirty-two C57BL/6 mice (male, 16 weeks old, n=8/group) were exposed to 3 weeks of either HU or normal ambulation (NA). Cohorts of mice received one subcutaneous injection of ZOL (45μg/kg), or saline vehicle (VEH), prior to the start of HU. The right tibia was axially compressed in vivo 60x/day to 9N (+1200μstrain on the periosteal surface) and repeated 3x/week during HU. Left tibiae served as a within subject, non-compressed control. Ex vivo μCT was performed on all subjects to determine cancellous and cortical architectural parameters. Static and dynamic histomorphometry were carried out for the left and right tibiae to determine osteoclast- and osteoblast relevant surfaces. Further, micro damage was assessed in select groups by basic-fuchsin staining to test whether CL had an effect. For all assays, a multivariate (2x2x2) ANCOVA model was used to account for body weight changes. Additionally, for the tibiae, we incorporated a random effect for the subject (hence, a mixed model) to account for observations of both left and right tibiae within each subject. P < 0.05 was considered significant. In the cancellous compartment of the proximal tibial metaphysis, we observed a main effect from each independent variable, as determined by structural and histomorphometric assays. Specifically, as expected, ZOL showed an increase in the cancellous bone volume to total volume fraction (BV/TV, +32%) and trabecular number (+18%) compared to the VEH. As expected, ZOL decreased osteoclast surface (OC/BS) by -45% compared to VEH. Surprisingly, ZOL reduced mineralizing surface (MS/BS) and bone formation rate (BFR), indicators of osteoblast activity, by -40% and -54%, respectively, compared to VEH. Altogether, ZOL-treated mice displayed a low turnover state of remodeling in the metaphysis. In the context of skeletal aging, we speculate that ZOL prevented age-related cancellous strut loss during the experiment. As a main effect, as expected, HU decreased BV/TV by - 31% via reductions in both trabecular thickness (-11%) and number (-22%) compared to NA controls. Additionally, HU decreased MS/BS by -38% and bone formation rate (BFR) by -50% compared to NA controls. Altogether, these data are consistent with structural degradation resulting from imbalanced remodeling that favors resorption. As a main effect, CL increased BV/TV by +15% via increased trabecular thickness (+12%) compared to the noncompressed limb. As expected, CL increased MS/BS (+20%) and BFR (+24%), indicating osteoblast mineralization contributed to bone gains. These data show that CL provided an anabolic stimulus to the cancellous tissue. We observed unique interactions in ZOL*CL and HU*CL. First, ZOL prevented CL-induced increases in BV/TV and trabecular number, as compared to VEH. In the context of skeletal aging, these data suggest no added benefit from CL in the ZOL-treated mice. Interestingly, no microdamage was observed in mice that were unloaded and treated with ZOL (independent of CL). Secondly, HU prevented CL-induced increases in BFR, as compared to NA controls. These data suggest that either exercise is less effective or the kinetics of formation are slower during simulated weightlessness. Osteoclast surface was unchanged by either treatment. Thus, in contrast to exercising astronauts, these data do not suggest a high-turnover state in the metaphysis. To assess mechanical properties as a function of HU or ZOL, we tested the left femur in three-point bending ex vivo. As expected, HU decreased stiffness (-30%) compared to NA, and ZOL increased stiffness compared to VEH (+28%). Interestingly, HU increased the post-yield displacement, related to collagenous tensile loading, compared to NA (+20%). ZOL increased yield force (+11%) and ultimate force (+17%), which seems to explain the significant effect of ZOL increasing total energy (work-to-fracture, +15%), while not affecting the post yield displacement. Taken together, ZOL did not have detrimental affect on mechanical properties. Our integrated model simulates the combination of weightlessness, exercise-induced mechanical strain, and anti-resorptive treatment that astronauts experience during space missions. We conclude that Zoledronate was an effective countermeasure against weightlessness-induced bone loss, though zoledronate, as well as weightlessness, rendered exercise-related mechanical loading less effective.

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Monitoring and Modeling Caprock Integrity at the In Salah Carbon Dioxide Storage Site, Algeria

The In Salah gas development project, initiated in 2004, involves the long-term storage of waste carbon dioxide associated with natural gas production at several central Algerian fields. Rather then vent the extracted CO 2 into the atmosphere the operators, BP, Sonatrach, and Statoil chose to have the gas compressed, dehydrated, transported, and injected into a deep saline aquifer leg of the Krechba gas reservoir (Matheison et al. 2011). For this effort three horizontal state-of-the-art injection wells were drilled to a depth of 1500-1800m, using geo-steering technology to follow the roughly 20m thick reservoir. To maximize the injectivity, the wells were oriented perpendicular to the direction of maximum stress, the dominant fracture direction. Long-term plans were to store up to 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide during the life of the program (Matheison et al. 2010). The project at In Salah was a pioneering effort in several respects and involved the investment of over 100 million dollars by the member companies. One feature that distinguishes In Salah from several other industrialscale CO 2 sequestration projects, such as Sleipner (Chadwick et al. 2012), Weyburn (White et al. 2011), Decatur (Kaven et al. 2014), and Aquastore (Worth et al. 2014) is the generally smaller storage volume in terms of overall reservoir thickness and lower average porosities of around 15%. With the exception of Weyburn, these other sites are characterized by generally thick sequences of high porosity sandstones. Therefore, one might expect that the pressure buildup near the wells could be larger at In Salah, with consequences for reservoir deformation and caprock strain. The role of fractures in providing storage and increasing reservoir permeability is one factor that would likely impact the pressure distribution around the well. However, the detailed effect of existing fractures on flow was not established prior to the injection at In Salah. The unique features of the In Salah storage site point to the importance of wellbore, geophysical, and geochemical monitoring to ensure that the integrity of the storage complex is maintained both during and after injection. In 2005 a Joint Industry Project (JIP) was set up, in an effort to use various geophysical, geochemical, and production techniques to monitor the fate of the injected carbon dioxide (Matheison et al. 2011). Here in this paper we describe the efforts made to monitoring the fate of the injected carbon dioxide, the state of the caprock, the estimated outcome of the storage effort, and some of the uncertainties that remain.

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