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At least 631 records · Page 35

Scaling Uintah on the Aurora Exascale System up to 122,880 Intel Ponte Vecchio Xe Stacks

The challenge of being able to scale application codes based on the Asynchronous Many-Task (AMT) Uintah framework on the Department of Energy (DOE) Aurora exascale system is addressed in this work by considering a challenging Reverse Monte Carlo Ray Tracing radiation benchmark calculation. This benchmark involves potentially global all-to-all communication and uses adaptive mesh refinement and ray tracing to achieve scalability. This benchmark has been used as part of previous scalability studies on a number of pre-exascale systems and on the DOE Frontier exascale system. This paper describes steps taken to enable this benchmark to run successfully on up to 10,240 nodes and 122,880 Intel® Ponte Vecchio Xe stacks on the DOE Aurora exascale system. This scalability was achieved through a limited number of experiments on Aurora, given machine loads and its uniqueness. These experiments constitute valuable lessons learned to achieve scalability at this level. The resulting scalability runs, while few in number, demonstrate relatively good strong-scaling characteristics. A detailed analysis of these results provides important indications about the path to scalability on Aurora for future work. Overall, these results continue the remarkable ability of this AMT approach to produce scalable solutions for challenging problems at extreme scale on heterogeneous architectures.

Garcia, Marta [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

FARM User Guidance and Instructions

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for the analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM aids HERON in the solution of the power dispatch problem by evaluating feasible set-point signals to be issued to the control systems of the different IES unit components. Set-points need to satisfy limits on both production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, etc.) and process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.). To enforce all these limits, a two-stage approach is adopted. First, the power dispatcher algorithm in HERON module estimates set-points that meet the constraints on the production variables, e.g., power levels and power ramp rate limits. These constraints are called explicit constraints. Then, if necessary, FARM adjusts these set-points to ensure the respect of the limits on the process variables of interest, given the knowledge of the system dynamics acquired through machine learning algorithms. These constraints are called implicit constraints. From this standpoint, FARM constitutes a bridge between the HERON power dispatcher that adopts a simplified description of the IES unit (low-resolution physics) and the HYBRID high-fidelity models (high-resolution physics). In this report, the general workflow and the software requirements of FARM module are summarized, and the detailed instructions for installing FARM software, running built-in example cases, deriving Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) state-space models, and using FARM for user-defined power dispatch problems are provided.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FARM supervisory capabilities for thermal energy storage

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for the analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM aids HERON in the solution of the power dispatch problem by evaluating feasible set-point signals to be issued to the control systems of the different IES unit components. Set-points need to satisfy limits on both production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, etc.) and process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.). To enforce all these limits, a two-stage approach is adopted. First, the power dispatcher algorithm in HERON module estimates set-points that meet the constraints on the production variables, e.g., power levels and power ramp rate limits. These constraints are called explicit constraints. Then, if necessary, FARM adjusts these set-points to ensure the respect of the limits on the process variables of interest, given the knowledge of the system dynamics acquired through machine learning algorithms. These constraints are called implicit constraints. From this standpoint, FARM constitutes a bridge between the HERON power dispatcher that adopts a simplified description of the IES unit (low-resolution physics) and the HYBRID high-fidelity models (high-resolution physics). In this report, an overview of the major capabilities of the latest release of FARM is provided, along with a summary of the tool demonstration campaign conducted at the Dynamic Energy Technology and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) facility. These results assess the performance of the control system architecture embedding FARM both as a Validator of the HERON power dispatcher and as a real time Supervisory control scheme. Additionally, the report outlines the areas that FARM might benefit from, along with proposed solutions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Charting the state of GEMs in microalgae: progress, challenges, and innovations

Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) provide a systems-level framework for understanding and engineering microalgal metabolism. This review explores the evolution of GEMs in microalgae, highlighting advances in light modeling, automation, and multi-omics integration. Special emphasis is placed on Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as a model species. Limitations of current models, particularly for microalgae, are discussed, alongside promising developments in dynamic modeling and machine learning. Together, these innovations chart a path toward more predictive, adaptable GEMs that can accelerate biotechnological applications of microalgae in sustainable production systems.

Plant Sciences↗

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fine particulate concentrations over East Asia derived from aerosols measured by the Advanced Himawari Imager using machine learning

Fine particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) is deleterious to the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. It is often difficult to assess the effects of PM 2.5 on human health over regions with limited ground monitoring sites, especially in East Asia. As an alternative, we estimated near-surface PM 2.5 concentrations by analyzing Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) Yonsei Aerosol Retrieval (YAER) products. This study incorporates daytime data for East Asia covering the Korean Peninsula, China, Japan, Southeast Asia, and southern Mongolia. We collocated AHI YAER product pixels with meteorological, land-cover, and other ancillary data for the period from March 2018 to February 2019. To estimate PM 2.5 concentrations over wide areas spanning many countries displaying various relationships between aerosol optical depth and PM 2.5 , monthly models were developed by considering both the spatial and temporal characteristics of ground-based PM 2.5 measurements. Random forest machine learning model estimated ground-level mass concentrations of PM 2.5 ; subsequent 10-fold cross validation (CV) yielded a CV R 2 value of 0.81 and a CV root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.3 μg m -3 . We investigated the spatial pattern of PM 2.5 concentrations over multiple countries and seasonal variation in PM 2.5 concentrations. Diurnal variation of a severe PM 2.5 event in the Korean Peninsula was investigated as a case study. The model captured the extremely heterogeneous spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations peaked around local noon. To measure the capability of the developed model to estimate PM 2.5 concentrations in areas with few in-situ data, its predictive performance was evaluated using a dataset independent of the training process with an R 2 of 0.60 and RMSE of 8.18 μg m −3 . This study demonstrates the potential for satellite-based PM 2.5 estimation for areas with insufficient measuring stations.

Pm2.5↗

Multi-Formalism Modeling for Disaster Resilience, Forecasting, and Response

Disaster response preparedness, risk mitigation, and effective post-event response are critical for national security, public health, and economic integrity. For areas impacted by extreme events, timely and accurate impact assessments of lifeline infrastructures are critical. Traditional disaster management and situational awareness platforms are not capable of handling the massive influx of available information from traditional and non-traditional sources. Next-generation analytic assessment approaches, where use of dynamically sourced, heterogeneous data with near real-time availability are integrated into a continually-updated analytics framework. The objective of this research was to develop a foundational multi-formalism modeling platform to integrate novel data sources for use in improving situational awareness after a disaster event. Specifically, to 1) provide an architecture for machine-learning based data fusion various multi-sensor datasets; 2) classify, geolocate, and temporally bin novel data sources for use in spatially-enabled machine-learning based data fusion; and 3) derive confidence-based observation data with machine-learning based prediction to fill spatial and temporal observation gaps. This project developed a reusable cloud-based pipeline architecture for ingesting, storing, and analyzing relevant data, executing a range of deep-learning models, and visualize the information geographically. The pipeline development was informed by previous PNNL investments (StreamKit) and built upon leading-edge technologies consisting of: 1) a raw datastore; 2) a data enrichment pipeline with custom and third-party analytics; 3) enriched data storage; and 4) a custom UI to display the enriched data. Machine learning/deep learning models were selected and tested to classify social media images for relevancy and presence of flood waters. Our custom trained relevance models were run on a validation dataset and the overall accuracy of the relevance classifiers ranged from 65% to 90%. We found that convolutional neural network (CNN) models were both faster and more accurate than more traditional machine learning models. We applied the relevance classifier to remove non-relevant images and then undertook a limited training of CNN models to detect flood on ~1,800 labeled images. The testing accuracy of the flood detection models were ~88%. To improve the geographic location of both social media and oblique aerial images we tested a multi-step workflow built on a pre-trained deep-learning model. To identify similarity features from test and reference scenes, we applied the Xception and Faiss models to a set of test images with inaccurate spatial locations, as well and precisely-located reference scenes from the general area. Matching reference scenes to the test scenes with the closest similarity index had limited success in improving the precision of test scene location and additional methods have been identified for testing. Data fusion between authoritative geographic data (satellite imaging) and non-authoritative crowdsourced data is an underlying theme throughout this research and methods are tested bring these data to a common geographic form through feature matching and transformations. The automated extraction of supporting information for disaster response from oblique aerial images or ground-level social media images is accomplished through semantic image segmentation and transformation. The non-authoritative data are used to validate the authoritative data collections and processing and optionally, t+0 flood models. In addition, the common form geographic data are combined with other static landscape features to develop spatially-explicit training vectors used in deep generative statistical inference models to develop complex non-linear relationships in static and dynamic data and ultimately derive a spatially continuous and probabilistic assessment of flood damage with the event domain.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Model-Agnostic Signal Discovery with Machine Learning: Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Practice

Searches for new phenomena in complex scientific data are predominantly model-dependent, optimized for specific hypotheses, and therefore limited in their coverage of the space of possible signals. Recently, new AI-based model-agnostic search strategies, many of which have been pioneered in high-energy physics, have been proposed which provide a complementary paradigm, prioritizing broad exploration over tailored analyses. These techniques offer an opportunity to enhance the overall discovery potential of modern experiments, especially in regimes where theoretical guidance is scarce. In this document, we review the conceptual framework behind the main classes of AI-based model-agnostic strategies. We discuss the potential pitfalls of these methods, and strategies for their validation and interpretation. We aim for this document to serve as a useful reference both for practitioners and for researchers interested in learning more about these model-agnostic search strategies.

Amram, Oz [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000237653123)↗

Baryon Number Violation Search

Understanding the fundamental forces and symmetries of nature has long been a central goal of particle physics. While the Standard Model (SM) provides a successful framework, it does not guarantee the conservation of baryon number B or lepton number L, thus motivating searches for their violation. Proton decay, a fundamental process violating B, has been at the forefront of experimental searches for decades.The discovery of the weak neutral current in 1973 unified the electromagnetic and weak forces and inspired the creation of Grand Unified Theories (GUTs) that also unify the strong force. In 1974, the first-ever GUT, proposed by Georgi and Glashow, naturally predicted proton decay. This prediction led to an experimental push to validate these theories, and a large underground detector boom was born. Initially designed for proton decay searches, these detectors later proved invaluable to neutrino physics.Although no evidence for proton decay has yet been observed, next-generation large detectors, such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), offer the opportunity to improve on current experimental limits. Utilizing its Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology, DUNE is positioned to probe rare processes such as proton decay with increased sensitivity.This thesis presents a sensitivity study for the dominant proton decay mode predicted by Supersymmetric GUTs, p → K+ν, utilizing machine learning approaches. Two methods are explored in this thesis: a Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) analysis and a Graphical Neural Network (GNN) analysis with NuGraph. A lifetime limit of 5.36 ± 0.69 × 1033 years for 400 kt-yrs is found using the BDT, while the GNN achieves a lifetime limit of 6.19±1.26×1033 years for 400-kt-yrs. The NuGraph result offers better sensitivity compared to the current limit set by Super-Kamiokande of 5.90 × 1033 while the BDT result offers a slightly lower sensitivity.Additionally, this thesis discusses cross-section work, a first-ever foray into proton decay and atmospheric neutrinos in a vertical drift (VD) DUNE detector, and extensive hardware contributions to the DUNE Far Detector (FD) 1 Module-0, ProtoDUNE-2, which serves as a testbed for the final detector design and installation.

Stokes, Tyler D. [Louisiana State U.] (ORCID:00000↗

Application of Machine Learning to Improve Biobased Glucaric Acid Production

Kalion, Inc. is an industrial biotechnology manufacturer of high-purity chemicals from biomass including glucaric acid to be used in the industrial, material, and pharmaceutical markets. The project goal is application of machine learning in conjunction with high-throughput cultivations and metabolomics to understand and overcome two different challenges: (i) improve glucaric acid productivity (the rate of production slows considerably after 48 hours, which limits the overall productivity that can be achieved in the process), and (ii) decrease its production costs (components from complex media are necessary to achieve robust production). Through a series of experiments, a set of metabolites contained in rich media that improved performance were identified using metabolomics, high throughput cultivations in bioreactors, and machine learning-friendly experimental designs. It was found that the substrate feeding strategy was the potential major driver to enhance bacterial performance of glucaric acid production. The major industrial impacts by this project are the improvement of the production process technology, as well as advancing infrastructures and workflows (where machine learning approaches in conjunction with high-throughput cultivation and metabolomics are used) to improve the analyses by making them more rapid and comprehensive.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

Compact representations of structured BFGS matrices

For general large-scale optimization problems compact representations exist in which recursive quasi-Newton update formulas are represented as compact matrix factorizations. For problems in which the objective function contains additional structure, recent structured quasi-Newton methods exploit available second-derivative information and approximate unavailable second derivatives. Here, this article develops the compact representations of two structured Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno update formulas. The compact representations enable efficient limited memory and initialization strategies. Two limited memory line search algorithms are described for which extensive numerical results demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithms, including comparisons to IPOPT on large machine learning problems, and to L-BFGS on a real world large scale ptychographic imaging application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

Investigating the opioid epidemic across the United States: Associations between county-level characteristics and overdose mortality

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts that reduced opioid prescribing by nearly 44% between 2011 and 2021, opioid overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although supply-side factors fueling this transition have been widely studied, the structural and community-level conditions that shape overdose mortality are less well understood. To help address this gap, this study has three primary objectives: (1) overcome structural gaps in national data to construct a complete nationwide county-level dataset from 2010 to 2022; (2) using data analysis, identify and investigate spatiotemporal anomalies in overdose mortality; and (3) using two machine-learning models, quantify the importance of thirteen social vulnerability variables in predicting overdose mortality. Our results identify unemployment and limited vehicle access as key county-level predictors of overdose mortality. Higher levels of these vulnerabilities are associated with elevated mortality, whereas lower levels are associated with reduced mortality. These findings highlight factors that may be relevant for public health planning and policy prioritization within the context of the opioid crisis.

Anomaly analysis↗

Neural network modeling of in situ fluid-filled pore size distributions in subsurface shale reservoirs under data constraints

Subsurface nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logs acquired in the wellbore environment are sensitive to fluid-filled pore size distribution, fluid mobility, permeability, and porosity in the near-wellbore reservoir volume. NMR response of a formation layer is processed to extract the T2 distribution, which approximates the fluid-filled pore size distribution. NMR logs are acquired in limited number of wells due to financial and operational challenges, which adversely affects reservoir characterization. We developed here two neural-network-based machine learning techniques, long short-term memory (LSTM) network and variational autoencoder with a convolutional layer (VAEc) network, to process the ‘easy-to-acquire’ formation mineral and fluid saturation logs to generate synthetic NMR T2 distributions in the absence of ‘hard-to-acquire’ NMR T2 distribution log. Both the predictive models are trained and tested on limited wireline log measurements randomly selected from a 300-ft depth interval of the Bakken shale formation. Synthesis performances of LSTM and VAEc models in terms of R 2 are 0.78 and 0.75, respectively. Noise is inevitable in logging data due to the complex wellbore and formation conditions. Notably, both the predictive models robustly synthesize the fluid-filled pore size distributions in the presence of 50% noise in input logs and 30% noise in training T2 data. The performance of the proposed methodology improves with access to larger volume of training data from other formation types. The proposed method is critical to the synthesis of in situ fluid-filled pore size distributions in shale formations under data constraints due to financial and operational challenges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advances in imaging, scattering, spectroscopy, and machine learning-aided approaches for multiscale characterization of cementitious systems

Recent progress in methods used in the multiscale characterization of cementitious systems is reviewed, focusing on advances in imaging, scattering, and spectroscopy. The review includes relevant applications and developments in machine learning and other data analytics approaches to enhance characterization. Developments in imaging using light and electron microscopy as well as x-ray (i.e., from synchrotron) methods are summarized. Updates include scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), tomography, and holography. A critical overview of spectroscopy (e.g., MAS NMR, Raman) and scattering (e.g., neutron, x-ray, synchrotron x-ray) methods is provided, and the intersection of these with imaging is developed (e.g., Raman imaging). Additionally, the paper summarizes recent developments in and implementations of state-of-the-art machine-learning algorithms and data analytics methods for automated, systematic, and/or quantitative analyses of image data sets. The review considers but is not limited to the application of these methods for investigating the hydration and microstructure development of cement phases, low-carbon-footprint cements (e.g., limestone calcined clay cements, LC3), environmental interactions (e.g., ASR) and model systems. Finally, the present work provides a critical presentation of advances in characterization methods that link together the composition and multiscale structure of cementitious materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Machine-learned closure of URANS for stably stratified turbulence: connecting physical timescales & data hyperparameters of deep time-series models

Stably stratified turbulence (SST), a model that is representative of the turbulence found in the oceans and atmosphere, is strongly affected by fine balances between forces and becomes more anisotropic in time for decaying scenarios. Moreover, there is a limited understanding of the physical phenomena described by some of the terms in the Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) equations—used to numerically simulate approximate solutions for such turbulent flows. Rather than attempting to model each term in URANS separately, it is attractive to explore the capability of machine learning (ML) to model groups of terms, i.e. to directly model the force balances. We develop deep time-series ML for closure modeling of the URANS equations applied to SST. We consider decaying SST which are homogeneous and stably stratified by a uniform density gradient, enabling dimensionality reduction. We consider two time-series ML models: long short-term memory and neural ordinary differential equation. Both models perform accurately and are numerically stable in a posteriori (online) tests. Furthermore, we explore the data requirements of the time-series ML models by extracting physically relevant timescales of the complex system. We find that the ratio of the timescales of the minimum information required by the ML models to accurately capture the dynamics of the SST corresponds to the Reynolds number of the flow. The current framework provides the backbone to explore the capability of such models to capture the dynamics of high-dimensional complex dynamical system like SST flows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Developing Methods for Exercise System Kinematics Tracking

BACKGROUND How to quantify the load and forces produced by exercise equipment and their Vibration Isolation and Stabilization (VIS) platforms in-flight is an active area of investigation. Kinematic tracking paired with system modeling can provide insights as well as verification and validation of simulations used for system design and development. Traditional motion capture methods can require significant cost in equipment procurement and crew-time, but newer lessons learned can be leveraged [1]. The VIS systems of current and future exercise hardware on the International Space Station (ISS) such as the Cycle Ergometer with Vibration Isolation System (CEVIS) and the European Enhanced Exploration Exercise Device (E4D) are not currently outfitted with IMUs or similar measurement devices. Video-based methods would enable use of multi-purpose, crew-familiar flight equipment. An initial exploration of video-based solutions was performed utilizing 2-camera video from crew cycling on Teal-CEVIS on the ISS. METHODS AND RESULTS Our group has scoped a variety of video-based object tracking methods. To date, we have primarily investigated computer vision toolkits such as openCV. Techniques explored include key-point detection, background subtraction, region-of interest tracking, color-based tracking, tag masking and tracking, and corner detection. Although object-tracking and 6D pose estimation is a rich field, space applications are a unique problem that are challenging for existing software and toolkits. The majority of the existing object-tracking applications involve vehicles/pedestrians and household objects with simple backgrounds. We have identified the following features which pose particular challenges for on-station exercise equipment tracking: Busy and visually cluttered background Low-textured tracking object with relatively small motions Occlusions and motion by human subject and loose, floating objects Limited number of video cameras with no fixed global references Limited ability to add tags, markers, or visual references to the tracking object Lack of training data for Machine Learning (ML) algorithms CONCLUSION We will summarize the efficacy of techniques tested for a ground mock-trial and the on-station exercise trial. It is likely that human-in-loop feedback or a conglomerate of methods is required. ML-based methods, like those implemented for human body tracking [2], may still be a viable option, but more training data and validation is needed.

L B Nilsson↗