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Efficient Unstructured Grid Adaptation Methods for Sonic Boom Prediction

This paper examines the use of two grid adaptation methods to improve the accuracy of the near-to-mid field pressure signature prediction of supersonic aircraft computed using the USM3D unstructured grid flow solver. The first method (ADV) is an interactive adaptation process that uses grid movement rather than enrichment to more accurately resolve the expansion and compression waves. The second method (SSGRID) uses an a priori adaptation approach to stretch and shear the original unstructured grid to align the grid with the pressure waves and reduce the cell count required to achieve an accurate signature prediction at a given distance from the vehicle. Both methods initially create negative volume cells that are repaired in a module in the ADV code. While both approaches provide significant improvements in the near field signature (< 3 body lengths) relative to a baseline grid without increasing the number of grid points, only the SSGRID approach allows the details of the signature to be accurately computed at mid-field distances (3-10 body lengths) for direct use with mid-field-to-ground boom propagation codes.

Campbell, Richard L.↗

SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) Temperature Observations of Mesospheric and Stratospheric QBO and Related Tidal Variations

More than three years of temperature observations from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS WARS) instruments are analyzed to study the annual and inter-annual variations extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere. The SABER measurements provide data from a wide altitude range (15 to 95 km) for the years 2002 to 2004, while the MLS data were taken in the 16 to 55 km altitude range a decade earlier. Because of the sampling properties of SABER and MLS, the variations with local solar time must be accounted for when estimating the zonal mean variations. An algorithm is thus applied that delineates with Fourier analysis the year-long variations of the migrating tides and zonal mean component. The amplitude of the diurnal tide near the equator shows a strong semiannual periodicity with maxima near equinox, which vary from year to year to indicate the influence from the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation. The zonal mean QBO temperature variations are analyzed over a range of latitudes and altitudes, and the results are presented for latitudes from 48"s to 48"N. New results are obtained for the QBO, especially in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and at mid-latitudes. At Equatorial latitudes, the QBO amplitudes show local peaks, albeit small, that occur at different altitudes. From about 20 to 40 km, and within about 15" of the Equator, the amplitudes can approach 3S K for the stratospheric QBO or SQBO. For the mesospheric QBO or MQBO, we find peaks near 70 km, with temperature amplitudes reaching 3.5"K, and near 85 km, the amplitudes approach 2.5OK. Morphologically, the amplitude and phase variations derived from the SABER and MLS measurements are in qualitative agreement. The QBO amplitudes tend to peak at the Equator but then increase again pole-ward of about 15" to 20'. The phase progression with altitude varies more gradually at the Equator than at mid-latitudes. A comparison of the observations with results from the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) reveals that there is qualitative agreement. The NSM generates the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, with temperature variations extending to mid latitudes, but the predicted amplitudes are smaller than those observed.

Huang, Frank T.↗

Luciola Hypertelescope Space Observatory

Luciola is a large (one kilometer) "multi-aperture densified-pupil imaging interferometer", or "hypertelescope" employing many small apertures, rather than a few large ones, for obtaining direct snapshot images with a high information content. A diluted collector mirror, deployed in space as a flotilla of small mirrors, focuses a sky image which is exploited by several beam-combiner spaceships. Each contains a pupil densifier micro-lens array to avoid the diffractive spread and image attenuation caused by the small sub-apertures. The elucidation of hypertelescope imaging properties during the last decade has shown that many small apertures tend to be far more efficient, regarding the science yield, than a few large ones providing a comparable collecting area. For similar underlying physical reasons, radio-astronomy has also evolved in the direction of many-antenna systems such as the proposed Low Frequency Array having hundreds of thousands of individual receivers . With its high limiting magnitude, reaching the mv=30 limit of HST when 100 collectors of 25cm will match its collecting area, high-resolution direct imaging in multiple channels, broad spectral coverage from the 1200 Angstrom ultra-violet to the 20 micron infra-red, apodization, coronagraphic and spectroscopic capabilities, the proposed hypertelescope observatory addresses very broad and innovative science covering different areas of ESA s Cosmic Vision program. In the initial phase, a focal spacecraft covering the UV to near IR spectral range of EMCCD photon-counting cameras ( currently 200 to 1000nm), will image details on the surface of many stars, as well as their environment, including multiple stars and clusters. Spectra will be obtained for each resel. It will also image neutron star, black-hole and micro-quasar candidates, as well as active galactic nuclei, quasars, gravitational lenses, and other Cosmic Vision targets observable with the initial modest crowding limit. With subsequent upgrade missions, the spectral coverage can be extended from 120nm to 20 microns, using four detectors carried by two to four focal spacecraft. The number of collector mirrors in the flotilla can also be increased from 12 to 100 and possibly 1,000. The imaging and spectroscopy of habitable exoplanets in the mid infra-red then becomes feasible once the collecting area reaches 6m2 , using a specialized mid infra-red focal spacecraft. Calculations ( Boccaletti et al., 2000) have shown that hypertelescope coronagraphy has unequalled sensitivity for detecting, at mid infra-red wavelengths, faint exoplanets within the exo-zodiacal glare. Later upgrades will enable the more difficult imaging and spectroscopy of these faint objects at visible wavelengths, using refined techniques of adaptive coronagraphy (Labeyrie. & Le Coroller, 2004). Together, the infra-red and visible spectral data carry rich information on the possible presence of life. The close environment of the central black-hole in the Milky Way will be imageable with unprecedented detail in the near infra-red . Cosmological imaging of remote galaxies at the limit of the known universe is also expected, from the ultra-violet to the near infra-red, following the first upgrade, and with greatly increasing sensitivity through successive upgrades. These areas will indeed greatly benefit from the upgrades, in terms of dynamic range, limiting complexity of the objects to be imaged, size of the elementary Direct Imaging Field , and limiting magnitude, approaching that of an 8-meter space telescope when 1000 apertures of 25cm are installed. Similar gains will occur for addressing fundamental problems in physics and cosmology, particularly when observing neutron stars and black holes, single or binary, including the giant black holes, with accretion disks and jets, in active galactic nuclei beyond the Milky Way. Gravitational lensing and micro-lensing patterns, including time-variable patterns and perhaps millisecond lensing flasheshich may be beamed by diffraction from sub-stellar masses at sub-parsec distances (Labeyrie, 1994) , will also be observable initially in the favourable cases, and upgrades will greatly improve the number of observable objects. The observability of gravitational waves emitted by binary lensing masses, in the form of modulated lensing patterns, is a debated issue ( Ragazzoni et al., 2003) but will also become addressable observationally. The technology readiness of Luciola approaches levels where low-orbit testing and stepwise implementation will become feasible in the 2015-2025 time frame. For the following decades beyond 2020, once accurate formation flying techniques will be mastered, much larger hypertelescopes such as the proposed 100km Exo-Earth Imager and the 100,000 km Neutron Star Imager should also become feasible. Luciola is therefore also seen as a precursor toward such very powerful instruments.

Labeyrie, Antoine↗

A Study of Near to Far Fields of JPL Deep Space Network (DSN) Antennas for RFI Analysis

This paper addresses the issue of calculating the gain and power distribution of DSN antennas in the Fresnel (middle zone) and Fraunhofer (far zone) as a function of the distance from the DSN antenna and the off-boresight angle. Calculating the near and mid fields of DSN antennas are of interest in the receive mode where the transmitting signals from nearby flying objects such as helicopters and airplanes transmitting in the DSN frequency range, interfere with the operation of sensitive RF receiving system of the DSN antennas, and in the transmit mode where fields from high-powered DSN antennas interfere with receivers on nearby flying objects such as helicopters or other systems. Computing the exact fields of a large DSN antenna is, in general, a very complicated and arduous task. Even far-field calculations, which are less complicated compared to near and mid zone fields, take considerable computer time. These calculations become even more involved and time-consuming in very near field and back field regions. We provide two approaches for addressing the radio frequency interference (RFI) issue. In this paper, actual fields in mid and far zones are calculated using a relatively simple formulation that is accurate enough for the purposes of RFI analysis. In a future paper, we study and develop simple reference models that provide upper limit bounds or envelopes of the far field patterns as a function of the antenna diameter and frequency, which can be used for obtaining the field at any given point in space.

aperture antennas↗

Evidence of Convective Redistribution of Carbon Monoxide in Aura Tropospheric Emission Sounder (TES) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) Observations

Vertical convective transport is a key element of the tropospheric circulation. Convection lofts air from the boundary layer into the free troposphere, allowing surface emissions to travel much further, and altering the rate of chemical processes such as ozone production. This study uses satellite observations to focus on the convective transport of CO from the boundary layer to the mid and upper troposphere. Our hypothesis is that strong convection associated with high rain rate regions leads to a correlation between mid level and upper level CO amounts. We first test this hypothesis using the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model. We find the correlation is robust and increases as the precipitation rate (the strength of convection) increases. We next examine three years of CO profiles from the Tropospheric Emission Sounder (TES) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments aboard EOS Aura. Rain rates are taken from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B-42 multi-satellite product. Again we find a correlation between mid-level and upper tropospheric CO, which increases with rain rate. Our result shows the critical importance of tropical convection in coupling vertical levels of the troposphere in the transport of trace gases. The effect is seen most clearly in strong convective regions such as the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone.

Manyin, Michael↗

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially

Susskind, Joel↗

Computer-Controlled Cylindrical Polishing Process for Large X-Ray Mirror Mandrels

We are developing high-energy grazing incidence shell optics for hard-x-ray telescopes. The resolution of a mirror shells depends on the quality of cylindrical mandrel from which they are being replicated. Mid-spatial-frequency axial figure error is a dominant contributor in the error budget of the mandrel. This paper presents our efforts to develop a deterministic cylindrical polishing process in order to keep the mid-spatial-frequency axial figure errors to a minimum. Simulation software is developed to model the residual surface figure errors of a mandrel due to the polishing process parameters and the tools used, as well as to compute the optical performance of the optics. The study carried out using the developed software was focused on establishing a relationship between the polishing process parameters and the mid-spatial-frequency error generation. The process parameters modeled are the speeds of the lap and the mandrel, the tool s influence function, the contour path (dwell) of the tools, their shape and the distribution of the tools on the polishing lap. Using the inputs from the mathematical model, a mandrel having conical approximated Wolter-1 geometry, has been polished on a newly developed computer-controlled cylindrical polishing machine. The preliminary results of a series of polishing experiments demonstrate a qualitative agreement with the developed model. We report our first experimental results and discuss plans for further improvements in the polishing process. The ability to simulate the polishing process is critical to optimize the polishing process, improve the mandrel quality and significantly reduce the cost of mandrel production

Khan, Gufran S.↗

Enhanced Surface Warming and Accelerated Snow Melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau Induced by Absorbing Aerosols

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (approx.5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.

Lau, William K.↗

Strategic Ozone Sounding Networks: Review of Design and Accomplishments

Ozone soundings are used to integrate models, satellite, aircraft and ground-based measurements for better interpretation of ozone variability, including atmospheric losses (predominantly in the stratosphere) and pollution (troposphere). A well-designed network of ozonesonde stations gives information with high vertical and horizontal resolution on a number of dynamical and chemical processes, allowing us to answer questions not possible with aircraft campaigns or current satellite technology. Strategic ozonesonde networks are discussed for high, mid- and low latitude studies. The Match sounding network was designed specifically to follow ozone depletion within the polar vortex; the standard sites are at middle to high northern hemisphere latitudes and typically operate from December through mid-March. Three mid-latitude strategic networks (the IONS series) operated over North America in July-August 2004, March-May and August 2006, and April and June-July-2008. These were designed to address questions about tropospheric ozone budgets and sources, including stratosphere-troposphere transport, and to validate satellite instruments and models. A global network focusing on processes in the equatorial zone, SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes), has operated since 1998 in partnership with NOAA, NASA and the Meteorological Services of host countries. Examples of important findings from these networks are described,

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Engineering Evaluation of International Low Impact Docking System Latch Hooks

The international Low Impact Docking System (iLIDS) provides a structural arrangement that allows for visiting vehicles to dock with the International Space Station (ISS) (Fig 1). The iLIDS docking units are mechanically joined together by a series of active and passive latch hooks. In order to preserve docking capability at the existing Russian docking interfaces, the iLIDS latch hooks are required to conform to the existing Russian design. The latch hooks are classified as being fail-safe. Since the latch hooks are fail-safe, the hooks are not fracture critical and a fatigue based service life assessment will satisfy the structural integrity requirements. Constant amplitude fatigue testing to failure on four sets of active/passive iLIDS latch hooks was performed at load magnitudes of 10, 11, and 12 kips. Failure analysis of the hook fatigue failures identified multi-site fatigue initiation that was effectively centered about the hook mid-plane (consistent with the 3D model results). The fatigue crack initiation distribution implies that the fatigue damage accumulation effectively results in a very low aspect ratio surface crack (which can be simulated as thru-thickness crack). Fatigue damage progression resulted in numerous close proximity fatigue crack initiation sites. It was not possible to determine if fatigue crack coalescence occurs during cyclic loading or as result of the fast fracture response. The presence of multiple fatigue crack initiation sites on different planes will result in the formation of ratchet marks as the cracks coalesce. Once the stable fatigue crack becomes unstable and the fast fracture advances across the remaining ligament and the plane stress condition at a free-surface will result in failure along a 45 deg. shear plane (slant fracture) and the resulting inclined edge is called a shear lip. The hook thickness on the plane of fatigue crack initiation is 0.787". The distance between the shear lips on this plane was on the order of 0.48" and it was effectively centered about the mid-plane of the section. The numerous ratchet marks between the shear lips on the fracture initiation plane are indicative of multiple fatigue initiation sites within this region. The distribution of the fatigue damage about the centerline of the hook is consistent with the analytical results that demonstrate peak stress/strain response at the mid-plane that decreases in the direction of the hook outer surfaces. Scanning electron microscope images of the failed sections detected fatigue crack striations in close proximity to the free surface of the hook radius. These findings were documented at three locations on the fracture surface : 1) adjacent to the left shear lip, 2) adjacent to the right shear lip, and 3) near the centerline of the section. The features of the titanium fracture surface did not allow for a determination of a critical crack size via identification of the region where the fatigue crack propagation became unstable. The fracture based service life projections where benchmarked with strain-life analyses. The strainrange response in the hook radius was defined via the correlated finite element models and the modified method of universal slopes was incorporated to define the strain-life equation for the titanium alloy. The strain-life assessment confirmed that the fracture based projections were reasonable for the loading range of interest. Based upon the analysis and component level fatigue test data a preliminary service life capability for the iLIDS active and passive hooks of 2 lifetimes is projected (includes a scatter factor of 4).

Martinez, J.↗

Comparison of Failure Modes in 2-D and 3-D Woven Carbon Phenolic Systems

NASA Ames Research Center is developing Woven Thermal Protection System (WTPS) materials as a new class of heatshields for entry vehicles (Stackpoole). Currently, there are few options for ablative entry heatshield materials, none of which is ideally suited to the planetary probe missions currently of interest to NASA. While carbon phenolic was successfully used for the missions Pioneer Venus and Galileo (to Jupiter), the heritage constituents are no longer available. An alternate carbon phenolic would need to be qualified for probe missions, which is most efficient at heat fluxes greater than those currently of interest. Additional TPS materials such as Avcoat and PICA are not sufficiently robust for the heat fluxes required. As a result, there is a large TPS gap between the materials efficient at very high conditions (carbon phenolic) and those that are effective at low-moderate conditions (all others). Development of 3D Woven TPS is intended to fill this gap, targeting mid-density weaves that could with withstand mid-range heat fluxes between 1100 W/sq cm and 8000 W/sq cm (Venkatapathy (2012). Preliminary experimental studies have been performed to show the feasibility of WTPS as a future mid-range TPS material. One study performed in the mARC Jet Facility at NASA Ames Research Center characterized the performance of a 3D Woven TPS sample and compared it to 2D carbon phenolic samples at ply angles of 0deg, 23.5deg, and 90deg. Each sample contained similar compositions of phenolic and carbon fiber volume fractions for experimental consistency. The goal of this study was to compare the performance of the TPS materials by evaluating resulting recession and failure modes. After exposing both samples to similar heat flux and pressure conditions, the 2D carbon phenolic laminate was shown to experience significant delamination between layers and further pocketing underneath separated layers. The 3D Woven TPS sample did not experience the delamination or pocketing failure modes because z-fibers in the through-thickness direction provided extra reinforcement to hold material layers together. Therefore, the benefit of using a 3D weave architecture was shown to alleviate failure modes experienced by a 2D laminate sample of similar material composition. In summary this poster reviews the thermal response performance comparisons drawn between a 3D Woven TPS sample and 2D Carbon Phenolic samples after performing rigorous heating experiments in the mARC facility at NASA Ames. Although the mARC Facility is still in its developmental stages, researchers expect similar trends in failure modes observed from large scale arc jet facilities. This work helps demonstrate the viability of 3D Woven TPSs as a new TPS option for future atmospheric entry missions.

Rossman, Grant A.↗

Tropospheric Bromine Chemistry: Implications for Present and Pre-industrial Ozone and Mercury

We present a new model for the global tropospheric chemistry of inorganic bromine (Bry) coupled to oxidant-aerosol chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). Sources of tropospheric Bry include debromination of sea-salt aerosol, photolysis and oxidation of short-lived bromocarbons, and transport from the stratosphere. Comparison to a GOME-2 satellite climatology of tropospheric BrO columns shows that the model can reproduce the observed increase of BrO with latitude, the northern mid-latitudes maximum in winter, and the Arctic maximum in spring. This successful simulation is contingent on the HOBr + HBr reaction taking place in aqueous aerosols and ice clouds. Bromine chemistry in the model decreases tropospheric ozone mixing ratios by <1-8 nmol/mol (6.5% globally), with the largest effects in the northern extratropics in spring. The global mean tropospheric OH concentration decreases by 4 %. Inclusion of bromine chemistry improves the ability of global models (GEOS-Chem and p-TOMCAT) to simulate observed 19th-century ozone and its seasonality. Bromine effects on tropospheric ozone are comparable in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres so that estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are minimally affected. Br atom concentrations are 40% higher in the pre-industrial atmosphere due to lower ozone, which would decrease by a factor of 2 the atmospheric lifetime of elemental mercury against oxidation by Br. This suggests that historical anthropogenic mercury emissions may have mostly deposited to northern mid-latitudes, enriching the corresponding surface reservoirs. The persistent rise in background surface ozone at northern mid-latitudes during the past decades could possibly contribute to the observations of elevated mercury in subsurface waters of the North Atlantic.

bromine↗

Technology Development Roadmap: A Technology Development Roadmap for a Future Gravitational Wave Mission

Humankind will detect the first gravitational wave (GW) signals from the Universe in the current decade using ground-based detectors. But the richest trove of astrophysical information lies at lower frequencies in the spectrum only accessible from space. Signals are expected from merging massive black holes throughout cosmic history, from compact stellar remnants orbiting central galactic engines from thousands of close contact binary systems in the Milky Way, and possibly from exotic sources, some not yet imagined. These signals carry essential information not available from electromagnetic observations, and which can be extracted with extraordinary accuracy. For 20 years, NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and an international research community have put considerable effort into developing concepts and technologies for a GW mission. Both the 2000 and 2010 decadal surveys endorsed the science and mission concept of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). A partnership of the two agencies defined and analyzed the concept for a decade. The agencies partnered on LISA Pathfinder (LPF), and ESA-led technology demonstration mission, now preparing for a 2015 launch. Extensive technology development has been carried out on the ground. Currently, the evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (eLISA) concept, a LISA-like concept with only two measurement arms, is competing for ESA's L2 opportunity. NASA's Astrophysics Division seeks to be a junior partner if eLISA is selected. If eLISA is not selected, then a LISA-like mission will be a strong contender in the 2020 decadal survey. This Technology Development Roadmap (TDR) builds on the LISA concept development, the LPF technology development, and the U.S. and European ground-based technology development. The eLISA architecture and the architecture of the Mid-sized Space-based Gravitational-wave Observatory (SGO Mid)-a competitive design with three measurement arms from the recent design study for a NASA-led mission after 2020-both use the same technologies. Further, NASA participation in an ESA-led mission would likely augment the eLISA architecture with a third arm to become the SGO Mid architecture. For these reasons, this TDR for a future GW mission applies to both designs and both programmatic paths forward. It is adaptable to the different timelines and roles for an ESA-led or a NASA-led mission, and it is adaptable to available resources. Based on a mature understanding of the interaction between technology and risk, the authors of this TDR have chosen a set of objectives that are more expansive than is usual. The objectives for this roadmap are: (1) reduce technical and development risks and costs; (2) understand and, where possible, relieve system requirements and consequences; (3) increase technical insight into critical technologies; and (4) validate the design at the subsystem level. The emphasis on these objectives, particularly the latter two, is driven by outstanding programmatic decisions, namely whether a future GW mission is ESA-led or NASA-led, and availability of resources. The relative emphasis is best understood in the context of prioritization.

Laser Interferometry Space Antenna↗

Comparison of the Impact of the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection on Interannual Variation in East Asian Winter Temperatures and Monsoon

The large-scale impacts of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection on the East Asian winter climate anomalies are compared for the past 34 winters focusing on 1) interannual monthly to seasonal temperature variability, 2) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and 3) the Siberian high (SH) and cold surge. Regression analysis reveals warming by AO and EA/WR over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. The EA/WR impact is found to be comparable to the AO impact in affecting the East Asian temperature and monsoon. For example, warm (cold) months over mid-latitude East Asia during the positive (negative) AO are clearly seen when the AO and EA/WR are in the same phase. Near zero correlation is found between temperature and the AO phase when both teleconnections are in an opposite phase. The well-known negative relationship between SH and the AO phase is observed significantly more often when the AO is in the same phase with the EA/WR. Also, the indices of EAWM, cold surge, and SH are found to be more highly negative-correlated with the EA/WR rather than with the AO. The advective temperature change and associated circulation demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale field including the SH over the mid-latitude Asian inland is better represented by the EA/WR, influencing the East Asian winter climates. These results suggest that the impact of EA/WR should be considered more important than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Arctic Oscillation↗

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Decadal Prediction↗

Thirty Years of Change in Subalpine Forest Cover from Landsat Image Analysis in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Landsat imagery was analyzed to understand changes in subalpine forest stands since the mid-1980s in the Sierra-Nevada region of California. At locations where long-term plot measurements have shown that stands are becoming denser in the number of small tree stems (compared to the early 1930s), the 30-year analysis of Landsat greenness index (NDVI) indicated that no consistent increases in canopy leaf cover have occurred at these same locations since the mid-1980s. Interannual variations in stand NDVI closely followed snow accumulation amounts recorded at nearby stations. In contrast, at eastern Sierra whitebark pine stand locations where it has been observed that widespread tree mortality has occurred, decreasing NDVI trends over the past 5-10 years were consistent with rapid loss of forest canopy cover. Landsat imagery was further analyzed to understand patterns of post-wildfire vegetation recovery, focusing on high burn severity (HBS) patches within burned areas dating from the late 1940s. Analysis of landscape metrics showed that the percentage of total HBS area comprised by the largest patch of recovered woody cover was relatively small in all fires that occurred since 1995, but increased rapidly with time since fire. Patch complexity of recovered woody cover decreased notably after more than 50 years of regrowth, but was not readily associated with time for fires that occurred since the mid 1990s. The aggregation level of patches with recovery of woody cover increased steadily with time since fire. The study approach using satellite remote sensing can be expanded to assess the consequences of stand-replacing wildfires in all forests of the region.

Fires↗

Optimization of a Hot Structure Aeroshell and Nose Cap for Mars Atmospheric Entry

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is preparing to send humans beyond Low Earth Orbit and eventually to the surface of Mars. As part of the Evolvable Mars Campaign, different vehicle configurations are being designed and considered for delivering large payloads to the surface of Mars. Weight and packing volume are driving factors in the vehicle design, and the thermal protection system (TPS) for planetary entry is a technology area which can offer potential weight and volume savings. The feasibility and potential benefits of a ceramic matrix composite hot structure concept for different vehicle configurations are explored in this paper, including the nose cap for a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) and an aeroshell for a mid lift-to-drag (Mid L/D) concept. The TPS of a planetary entry vehicle is a critical component required to survive the severe aerodynamic heating environment during atmospheric en- try. The current state-of-the-art is an ablative material to protect the vehicle from the heat load. The ablator is bonded to an underlying structure, which carries the mechanical loads associated with entry. The alternative hot structure design utilizes an advanced carbon-carbon material system on the outer surface of the vehicle, which is exposed to the severe heating and acts as a load carrying structure. The preliminary design using the hot structure concept and the ablative concept is determined for the spherical nose cap of the HIAD entry vehicle and the aeroshell of the Mid L/D entry vehicle. The results of the study indicate that the use of hot structures for both vehicle concepts leads to a feasible design with potential weight and volume savings benefits over current state-of-the-art TPS technology that could enable future missions.

Langston, Sarah L.↗

On-Orbit Calibration and Performance of S-NPP VIIRS DNB

The S-NPP VIIRS instrument has successfully operated since its launch in October 2011. The VIIRS Day-Night Band (DNB) is a panchromatic channel covering wavelengths from 0.5 to 0.9 m that is capable of observing Earth scenes during both day and nighttime orbits at a spatial resolution of 750 m. To cover the large dynamic range, the DNB operates at low, mid, or high gain stages, and it uses an onboard solar diffuser (SD) for its low gain stage calibration. The SD observations also provide a means to compute gain ratios of low-to-mid and mid-to-high gain stages. This paper describes the DNB on-orbit calibration methodologies used by the VIIRS Characterization Support Team (VCST) in supporting the NASA earth science community with consistent VIIRS sensor data records (SDRs) made available by the Land Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS). It provides an assessment and update of DNB on-orbit performance, including the SD degradation in the DNB spectral range, detector gain and gain ratio trending, stray light contamination and its correction. Also presented in this paper are performance validations based on earth scenes and lunar observations.

Chen, H.↗